 We might kick off, so good afternoon and thanks for coming along this afternoon. There's a few faces in here that should know what this is all about, but we're actually streaming this live for everyone out in the region that couldn't make it in today. So to the team, so the Victorian Fire Risk Redistory is a product of the Risk Intelligence team here at headquarters. So at the moment it's myself acting as team leader in the absence of Leah McCann who's on maternity leave. We've got Michaela Boucher acting as coordinator and she's actually delivering this exact same presentation at the moment elsewhere and Allison as well as our project officer. We sit under John Haynes's team under service delivery strategy and the purpose of the presentation today is because we recently delivered this in Queensland and there was a lot of significant feedback to represent the presentation so that's what we'll take you through today. So the risk register itself is actually Victoria's first consistent bushfire risk register. So we'll take you through the presentation itself so it's broken up into three areas. So we'll discuss the process, the risk assessment itself as well as some examples of the use. So to start off we'll have a look at the process. The Victorian Fire Risk Register follows ISO 31,000 so for those are familiar with it that's the international risk management standard. It's actually the best practice so it's a guidance that all those participants involved in the process can actually follow. So our meeting structure was based around the structure itself so we actually looked at our first meeting where we established our context, our second meeting where we identified assets at risk, our third meeting we actually looked at the treatments to mitigate those risks on the assets and then we wrapped it up in a fourth and final meeting to make sure that everything that we had identified was accurate. So that's the sort of process that we'll be describing to you today. So how we identify the risk, how we analyze and evaluate and how we assign the risk mitigations. The context has been the key for this process. So along with supporting documentation and having a centralized support team that's really been highlighted as a key strength of the process and the outcomes that it's produced. So by having the centralized support team based at CFA headquarters we've actually got consistency statewide in the data that we've been able to capture. The process itself is actually municipal based so each local government has gone through this process. They've had multi-agency representatives involved because local knowledge can't be beaten. So you can see there that we've got a range of multi-agency representatives that have been involved in the process. A lot of discussions now is about bottom-up planning that that's been the key that you can't take anything away from local knowledge. That is what's been input into the risk register with some supporting statewide information. This screen actually takes you into the mapping feature itself. So you can see from here that we've got a number of assets. They are represented by a point, a line or a polygon. So when you can see up there the residential area it's represented by a polygon. So where we're looking at a large geographic extent as opposed to something like the school or the hospital where it's a single point address we can represent that with a point and things like transmission or road or rail we can represent with a line. So they're the spatial features that you'll see through the mapping. When we've identified a particular asset that's at risk we need to consider an asset class. So there's four asset classes. When we look at something that's human settlement it's got a life impact versus economic with a dollar impact or environmental or cultural risks. Within each of these categories the risk assessment criteria actually varies and there's a number of subcategories. So we group similar assets. So when we're concerned about life risks we can actually look at all the residents in one category versus all the schools and the hospitals where we've got groups of people that are at risk from bushfire. Having a look up at the risk assessment itself we've got a range of inputs to be able to establish the consequence and the likelihood to be able to calculate our risk rating. So if we focus in on the human settlement assessments first we go through a scenario. So if you can picture those multi-agency representatives which are generally a municipal fire management planning committee. We're sitting around the table and we'll facilitate this process. So we have that discussion at FDI Day and a developed bushfire. Where typically are we looking at the fire coming from. In that direction what is the threatening vegetation and we input that vegetation into the tool. Then we look at the separation distance from the vegetation to the asset that we're assessing and we also consider the slope in that as well. Those three inputs calculate a threat rating. Then we start to have a conversation around the residents themselves. So their susceptibility to the bushfire. So looking at their access and egress, their ability to be able to stay and defend their water supply and that conversation with the participants around the table will establish a susceptibility rating. Those two inputs, so our threat and our susceptibility have calculated a consequence rating. When we do that for an economic assessment we actually look at the level of impact. So if the asset was to be impacted would it have a local, regional or national state. And the criteria to establish that follows the pipes model. And then we look at the recovery of the asset. So we look at time versus dollars. So on that risk matrix we can actually look at whether it's a low, moderate or a high recovery. And that again establishes our consequence rating. Our environmental and our cultural assessments are actually quite outdated and they're actually being reviewed at the moment. So we've actually had support from AAV and Heritage Victoria to update the cultural side of our chapter. And we've actually had some internal support to update our environmental chapter. So once those assessment criteria have been enhanced then we'll actually be able to spend a lot more time and focus on inputting those assets into the register statewide. When we consider the likelihood assessment it is consistent across those four asset classes. So it's only the consequence that's different. When we look at the likelihood it's two parts. We look at the frequency of ignitions and the ability for the fire to spread and reach to the asset. Now when we looked at the frequency throughout the implementation we didn't have a definition and we didn't have numbers around what is frequent. So we actually needed to come back to the drawing board and build some context and some criteria so that we could have consistent results. The frequency we had to define as what was the best available data at the time. So we looked at DSC at the time and CFA's data from 2000 to 2010 and we looked at ignitions that would result in a bushfire. So that mapping we were able to take out to the field when we had this conversation around what is a frequent fire and generally speaking those participants in the room knew exactly which ignition that was from what job. So it really did support the local knowledge there but it gave a consistent decision statewide. The second part the spread and reach. So again it's that scenario base that on 100 FDI day if we had that ignition in that vegetation would we expect it to spread and reach to the asset itself. So that's a yes and no question. So from here that's when we've calculated our risk rating. So you can see that there's five levels of the risk extreme down to the low and there's actually a secondary rating which is called a priority rating. That's a number and letter sequence. Extremes go one A, B, C very highs to A, B, C and down the list. This helps for those municipalities when they receive their outputs from the product and they have multiple extreme risks. They can actually then go back and say well which ones are going to treat first. Let's focus on all our one A's then move through one B. So it's just another way to prioritize what action to take next. So the with all that input information there's actually a number of data layers that we actually take out and turn on throughout the process to support the local decisions. Sometimes we don't have all those agencies representative at the table at the time. We might only have local government and we might not have fine knowledge in the room. So we actually have all data layers to support what the vegetation type is. What's the separation distance? What's the slope? So there doesn't necessarily have to rely on the local knowledge to be in the room at the time. We actually have statewide information to support that decision as well. That's also been beneficial when there's been differences in opinions which has happened quite often. And it's a way to go through and for actually there to be some sort of evidence based behind decisions. So for when it needs to be used later. So out of the what we've gone through so far, that's how we're actually establishing a statewide data layer of the Victorian fire risk register. This has been completed in 67 of the 79 local government areas of the state. 12 have reported that they have minimal push fire risk and they are metropolitan areas. Six of the Alpine resorts have gone through the process as well as French Island. So we've covered a lot of ground in terms of the bushfire risk for the state. I'll take you through some examples now of how the risk register has been used, the data itself. So when we look at our traditional outputs from the process, so we actually traditionally we were there to support and inform municipal planning. So that's where it all began. So our series of static outputs, we've got a suite of PDF maps, Excel spreadsheets, a statistics report. And those those products have actually directly informed municipal fire management planning at that local level. And it's directly acted as an appendices to the bushfire component of their municipal plans. It's also now being used to inform the CIRA process. So as opposed to those committees and working groups going through this again for the bushfire part, they can use this information already collated to inform that process. Moving forward, there's a lot more want and desire for spatial information. And we've actually been able to create a Google Earth file. So this has been quite popular over the last 12 months. As a desktop product, more so for management and agencies to be able to view statewide data, as opposed to having to piece together a number of local government scale maps. It's also available on eMap and through the GDL2 interface. So for those who are GIS minded and can create maps, you can actually load it in with other data to build up the map that you want to see. The information is also being overlaid with ABS. So we can actually draw out some valuable stats. So you can see up there when we look at the total population at risk. So as mentioned, those five risk ratings so extreme through the low, we can draw out the total population that are within each of those risk rating areas. You can see that the stat for those that are just identified an extreme risk is quite high. So we're looking at 133,000 out of the state that have been rated extreme risk from bushfire. If we break that down to houses, 67,000 houses at risk statewide, we're dealing with high numbers. So this can support some decision making where to where to direct our services. You know, something like a HBAS service, how do we actually door knock on 67,000 doors. So it's something for us to start ticking over and making some decisions and where to focus our service delivery. Specifically for CFA, we've supported in a number of areas and it's growing each and every day. These are some examples from early stages. So neighborhood safer places. As you can see up there on the map, the blue area is a medium risk. And there's a little green square in the center of that. And that is the neighborhood safe place for that particular area. Now, the neighborhood safer place is options for a neighborhood safe place are done by the local government. So they can actually refer to this risk information and see whether an option for a neighborhood safe place actually caters for the population at risk surrounding. So you can see up there that there are three red areas which represents population at extreme risk. And that population then can have that NSP as their safer place of last resort. The community information guides, so formerly Township Protection Plans. The initial development of the Township Protection Plan was developed off those areas rated at extreme risk. So once that statewide list was populated, this was where the first lot of Township Protection Plans was developed. So from there, any additional Township Protection Plans or now community information guides that need to be developed can be as requested. Otherwise, they always will align to those extreme risk areas. The Grampians Fire earlier this year was the first time that the VFR actually supported during an incident. We have a lot of emphasis on before and on planning. And now we're starting to move into that during and after in that recovery phase as well. So the Grampians Fire, we can actually see that we were able to support evacuation. So where there was an area identified to be at very high risk, overlaid with the Phoenix and the prediction modeling, we could actually nominate which which residents would need to be evacuated in that time. This map is actually an evaluation after the fire. So you can actually see the footprint of the fire up on the screen. You can see that those properties that are purple in colour, they were identified within the risk register as being very high and they are also within 150 metres of the vegetation. So they are most at risk properties. The coloured diamonds actually represent the house and shed loss. So you can see there there's a strong relationship between where the fire actually spread, where we had identified the risk and where we actually saw the losses. VFRR has supported statewide agencies in their policy. So we've got two examples here. Our first one is the Department of Education. So each year we do an analysis for the emergency management division of DEACD and we actually tell them which of their facilities are located within extreme risk area and a very high risk area. So from that they can actually go through that list and determine which should be included on the bar and those facilities that are included on the bar will actually be closed on a Code Red Day. Similar to Department of Ed is DHS and DHS actually has their stated in their clients and services policy that any facility located in an extreme risk area must do additional treatments. Some examples of where VFRR have been able to help prioritize is actually with V-LINE and ARTC. So two of Victoria's Rail companies. We're seeing at the time now we're seeing a reduction in resources and dollars and we're expected to do the same if not more with less. And we've actually been able to do an analysis of where V-LINE and ARTC's rail intersects or is within 200 meters of our extreme and very high risk residential areas. So what we were able to do you can see there clearly that each point is a kilometer post for the rail and it has a unique ID. So we were able to give them an Excel spreadsheet that actually told them which kilometer post ID either intersects or is within the 200 meter boundary. From there they can actually make the decision whether they will prioritize their mitigation in that particular area to reduce the risk on impacting on that surrounding community. The future for VFRR. So in August 2012 we undertook an evaluation with Ernst and Young and it was actually highlighted as a critical enhancement opportunity to start looking at residual risk. So all that work around effectiveness of treatments that seems to be haunting everyone more and more. How effective is a treatment and what what are we doing and does it actually make a difference. So where we're spending this time and these dollars in our resources what are we actually improving in terms of risk. So that's something that we need to start looking at in the future. Also at the moment where we're probably 70% through an online platform for this information. So those municipal committees that are familiar with that roundtable discussion. They will actually have 24-7 access to this information. They'll be able to jump in make edits make enhancements or remove assets as a committee and make those changes 24-7. They'll also be able to produce their output documents from there as well. So it'll be a more customized suite of products for them. The community so we're starting to explore the opportunity to publish this information publicly. But we need to start looking at what this means for the community. We hear a lot now about empowering the community giving them the options and all the right tools and information to make their decisions as well as to to avoid complacency. So that's something that is next up for the VFRR. We're also doing a lot of work to support MFB with the development of their structure tool. So when we were rolling out Victorian fire risk register for bush fire it was that process was accepted and now the the the field are asking for a structure tool as well. So MFB have been endorsed to to roll that out. So that's actually called the VBRR, the Victorian built environment risk assessment process. So we'll go through that with them. So just in closing there's many opportunities to use this information. So we've only touched on a few examples today and we've really only scratched the surface in how why this information can be used. We're seeing it to inform service delivery as well as resource allocation. We're starting to look at how can it support right down to the brigade level as opposed to only informing statewide projects. It's something that we need to start exploring not only before but also the during and the after. So it's something to start thinking about where else we can help support and inform. It's something that we're very happy to support down to that local level and where can we help you in supplying this information to make better informed decisions. Thank you. Anyone have any questions in the room? Do you? Yes? So risk intelligence and VBRR? Okay. So the question was if risk intelligence is supporting into the built environment. What other areas that we're looking at developing into? The tool itself we actually recently have upgraded so that we can actually adapt it over to any other hazard. So it's just about that criteria and that context. We have the tool, we have the statewide team, so it's really open at the moment. There's a lot of work in terms of risk intelligence that we can start exploring to the future. We're supporting district five at the moment in taking that information down to the brigade level, working out how it can be meaningful and how they can actually use that information. So at the moment the the opportunities are endless and they're as they're brought to our attention. So using the risk data that we've already captured and then using other information within CFA, such as FERS data, and being able to put it all together and build a picture to make better decisions. Captain? Excellent presentation. I thought it was great and you know I even limited it up but it was really good so well done. It wasn't really a question that I had but more on comment. You spoke about the future of VFRR and it's a real opportunity and the process that we've gone through to inform and strategy. It's a bit of a weak point at the moment. Our ability to use evidence to inform some of our strategic priorities. So I really hope in the future that there's a bit more of a connection to strategy setting, performance as well and the work that we're doing around data because I just think it's great and it's really what we need. Anyone else? You might might leave it there. So thanks for everyone for coming along and the information actually will be available online in this presentation as well. So if you ever need anything just contact us. Thanks.