 Hi everyone and welcome to our weekly video. Today is June 6th, 2023 in the U.S. I am Michelle Mishneider, Chief Strategist of MarketGauge.com. We have a lot to go through in a very quick period of time, so I just want to get right to the point. One of the reasons why the equities were going up in the face of all the bad news was because we had market internals as risk on. And I think the premier place to look, and I'm not going to show it to you, so I'm just going to tell you, is you've got to look at the relationship between the long bonds in the U.S. versus the junk bonds. Junk bonds have been outperforming the long bonds for quite some time. Now, today, June 6th, for the first time, I am starting to see the long bonds as measured through the TLTs start to outperform the junk bonds as measured through HYG. So as I'm about to show you this futures chart in the XPX, keep that in mind. Now, when we look at this chart right here, there's something on here that you've not seen before. This is now our trading view platform. And I switch around. I go from stock charts to bar charts to actual trading view. And we'll continue to do that because I want to make sure I show you things that you really want to see. So what's interesting to me about this is this is our real motion indicator. And you've heard me talk about it before in writing, and you've heard me talk about it when I've done these videos. But what's so interesting about this right now is you can see that the momentum has been increasing here in the XPX as the price has. But now that we haven't quite gotten up to this high, which was the last high that we have to really look at, which was formed in August, we got shy of it yesterday on the 5th. We're coming down a little bit. You know how I love these reversal patterns? And sometimes they don't work out. Like this one was very shallow. Within the second day we cleared it. But now we're happening again. So how would we know that this might actually be a top for now in the XPX? Well, number one, of course, would be the relationship. I just told you about the long bonds versus the junk. But the other could also be this real motion indicator. So right now the momentum, if we look here, has taken out even the rally that we had back here in February. So it's higher. That's a good thing. And it's rising, although it's coming off a little bit today. So what I would be looking for, number one, is if we actually fall, but hold 4,200, maybe that's just a little bit of a correction. And this could be some spookiness ahead of the Fed meeting. But if we actually continue to break down from there, what you'll see even before that would probably be a mean reversion to the downside. One of the things I love about this indicator is these Bollinger bands. And when they have a mean reversion, as we saw, let's take a look at an example here, we had a mean reversion. It didn't quite get anywhere, came off. But look at the momentum here. It never got as low on this new price low as it got here on the momentum. So this is why the momentum is such a great lead indicator. So we'd be watching for two things. One would be the momentum to break down under these level highs that we saw recently. And the other would be a mean reversion to the downside. And the last time we had that, we had a nice move lower. Last time we had it, we went still a little bit lower. This time, though, there are other factors that could mean that we saw the 4,300 level, it got tested, and now we're going to go back down. So that's how I'd like to start today. And now let's move forward to some of the other key futures to be keeping your eyes on. Now, moving right now to the Dollar Japanese yen relationship, we've talked a lot about that 140 level, and the dollar has been persistently strong. But going back to my very first statement about the relationship between the long bonds and the junk bonds could also mean that the dollar is getting ready to move lower. And we can certainly talk about a bunch of fundamental reasons for that. But the number one reason to be looking at that would be potentially because it took to me, if I had to make a guess, that the Fed is actually going to skip all together and do nothing with the rates. And that would certainly embolden those long bonds, but also potentially make the dollar weaker. So in the yen, which would probably be my favorite pair to look at with the dollar right now, we go back to that 140. If we cannot break through that 140, remember this is the dollar leading here in terms of this ratio chart. And we start to move lower in the dollar. Remember that 103 is the ultimate area, but right now we can say 104.20, which is where we've been seeing persistent activity on closing bases or a little bit above or a little bit below. We finally get down under that 104.20. We break down under 104. I think you're going to start to see this relationship look like a very low risk trade for you guys. Look at that 140.92 that you don't want to get above there. And if you are going to go short by buying the yen and selling the dollar, obviously you want to see the 137.80 level break. And then, of course, here's your 200-day moving average at 137.30, which would probably correspond around 103. So here is a light crude oil futures, similar to the WTI. And again, you look at your real motion indicator here. So this is such a beautiful way to be looking at charts. It is something that we have available not just on TradingView, but also at our site at MarketGauge. And you can see that we had, again, a low in terms of price, but the momentum was actually stronger than when it was at a higher low back here. And so here, again, we had a new low in the price, but the momentum was better. And now we can see that mean reversion area that happened in the crude. And now we're stopping right at the 50-day moving average. And this is the kind of thing that we love to look for, which is a divergence between momentum and price. So right now, if we start to see the momentum clear the 50-day moving average, what we would be looking for now, of course, would be a move over the 50-day moving average with those two closes. But in the meantime, you have to ask yourself, look at how beautiful that work to win right up to the 50 and failed. And yet we're starting to see a little bit more strength in terms of the sell-offs are getting shallower. So to me, it seems like just a matter of time now that we're back above the $70 a barrel, once we get through that $75, $76 a barrel, I would say that that would be one impetus that we could look at for another cycle up in commodities. And with that, we have to take a look at natural gas, which may be one of the most annoying futures that are out there right now. But nonetheless, let's take a look at that momentum again. We have a bullish divergence in that the momentum not only is above the Bollinger band here, it's above the 50, it's going sideways while the price cannot figure out whether or not it wants to stay above that 50-day moving average or below it. My guess, if you had to think about it, would be that based on all the support levels that we see and the momentum is that the price is going to be higher. So where would I actually start being a buyer? I would say I'd like to see a little bit of distance between the 50 and the price action over the last several days. You can see I'm using the closing price or at least the doji price of this day back here on May 23rd. And now here we are in June, I'm sorry, that is not May 23rd, that's May 31st, 2023. So if we go back here, I would say over $2.3750 or $2.38 probably would be my buy signal to start being a buyer of natural gas on the basis of the fact that the momentum is telling us that this is tired to the downside, which brings me back to bar charts and a look at the July contract in copper. And it's starting also to look very interesting to me, I do not have a real motion chart on here because it's bar chart, but nonetheless what you really see is look at this, look at how this 200 day moving average is acting as big resistance. I think that makes it pretty easy. This has a couple of closes or even one good strong close over $380 and I would say that the 50 day moving average may not be so necessarily important because we've been forming this sort of inverted head and shoulders now really since this fall back on May 11th, which tells me if we just look at the measurement of $380 down to $350.30, we could be making a move up here to around $4.410 and that would certainly be a nice little bounce to catch. First is my favorite barometer, which of course would be Sugar Futures and we've discussed how this had a really clean reversal. We were looking at for about a 10% correction or close to $24 and we've gotten down kind of close $24.21. I would say that's good enough. If we take a look at the momentum, look how nice, since you weren't able to see this at the time, this showed a mean reversion to the downside and now look at this guys, we are under the $50, so we did see a weaker momentum than price, but once again we are having a mean reversion. It's when it breaks down under the Bollinger Band comes back through as we're so close to the 50 day moving average. So this makes it pretty easy. I would say right now we get back through $24.90, you have a really tight risk to the low today of around $24.20, but more importantly not only does that mean Sugar Futures can go back up, DBA in terms of an ETF is already showing great strength above $21 and this also would mean to me again with what I just showed you in copper and oil and even natural gas that we could be going into a second half supercycle in commodities. So here's your chart in soybeans, another one of those beautiful reversals with that little happy face, nice follow through, running into resistance here, we take a look and we just move the cursor to the left, look at the lows that we saw back here, this was back in August of 2022, just as the spy is reaching its August high, this basically is now coming back to test that August low and that tells me again that this is something to keep an eye on. I would like to see a move over $13.60 and then I think we can head back up to at least $14. So switching back to our trading view, we had been watching the 50 day moving average when we were looking at bar charts and we said that corn hasn't quite gotten there, but now we're able to look at the momentum chart. So see this nice mean reversion that happened right here. So just following that momentum higher, you can see now that we're running into this resistance once again, the 50 here in the real motion indicator or the momentum, the 50 here in terms of price. So with sort of an inside day here forming and a green day and everything I just mentioned to you about the dollar, the DBA, the seasonalities, etc., the first thing I'd be watching for is a momentum to take out the 50. The second thing I'd be watching for here is a move over the 50 at 618 and change, especially for a couple of days. And then you would be able to risk whatever the low is on the day when it actually clears and closes over that 50 day moving average. Thanks so much for watching and bye for now.