 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network a Potential Super Bowl preview is coming up in week 16. We've got the Baltimore Ravens heading to San Francisco to take on the 49ers We're gonna break down that game and all other week 16 key games by talking to Dr. Ed Feng Getting you ready to see what his number say about those key games including Ravens versus 49ers and other bets He likes for this week at Fandall sportsbook This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as I am every Thursday by Dr. Ed Feng You can find his work at the power link comm and check him out on Twitter at the power like Ed Thrilling slate of games coming up for this week. How you doing today? I'm doing really well. I'm looking forward to another weekend with a lot of NFL games spaced out very nicely Start tonight on Thursday night and then have all the Saturday games have multiple Monday games Which is which is pretty awesome. Yeah, and the Thursday game this week is actually pretty good Ram Saints I'm intrigued by that game just because I've been Higher than I should be on the Saints most of this year that spread is tied into three and a half Which makes me feel a bit better about that game and you know being high on the Saints And they're a miserable team to watch if you ever bet on them Like if you ever bet the Saints just don't watch the game like that's not it's not worth it Believe me But it should be a fun one Thursday and then a fun one to bookend things on Monday as well Ravens versus 49ers. So honestly like it's not just that they're spaced out well I but it's also good games in most time slots, too Right. I mean especially with the the end on Monday night is gonna be particularly good Christmas Day Yeah, absolutely breakdown that game later on and get you ready for all games across week 16 Throughout the show for today But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering this spread wherever you get your podcasts are breakdown of that Thursday night game Between the Rams and Saints is already up via Tom Vecchio prime time Tom breaking down top props for that game That isn't the covering the spread podcast feed and over on a fan dual TV plus No show on Friday for this week because of the holidays and then no show Monday as well So it's gonna be our only preview of week 16 because we're taking some time off for the holidays back with you on Tuesday To keep your firstly look NFL week 17 That is with us next week on Wednesday and Thursday We'll talk the college football semi-finals coming up then so make sure subscribe to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast And if you like what you hear leave us a five-star rating on Apple podcast or over on Spotify score early This NFL season with fan dual America's number one sports book right now new customers get $150 and bonus bets with any winning $5 moneyline bet That's a hundred fifty bucks if your team wins if you've been thinking about joining fan dual There is no better time to get in on the action the app is so easy to use There is a wide range of betting options including spreads player props totals and more so there's a fan dual a kickoff The NFL season fan dual official partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select states Fan dual is offering online sports waging in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas Star Casino LLC first online real mini wager only $5 pregame moneyline wager required $10 first deposit required bonus issued is now a drop of bonus bets that expire seven dates after a seat See terms at sportsbook.fan dual calm gambling problem call 1 800 gambler or visit fan dual calm slash RG in Colorado Iowa, Michigan New Jersey, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Illinois, Kentucky, Tennessee and Virginia Call 1 800 next step the text except a five three three four two in Arizona one eight eight seventy nine 7777 or for the ccpg.org slash chat Connecticut 1809 with an Indiana one hundred five two two forty seven hundred visit ksgaminghealth.com in Kansas 1877 770 stop in Louisiana visit MD gambling health at Oregon, Maryland 1 800 gambler.net in West Virginia 1 800 five two two forty seven hundred in Wyoming. Hope is here visit gambling helpline ma.org or calling hundred three two seven 5050 for twenty four seven supportive Massachusetts or call one eight seven seventy open y or text open y in New York Now before you get into the games. I want to talk about Some perceptions we've had of a couple of teams this year specifically Dallas in Miami who happened to play each other this week But how they can't beat this super stiff competition I think that was kind of strengthened this week with the bills Throttling the Cowboys up in Buffalo both you and I run numbers that account for opposition so My baseline assumption is that our numbers properly account for a strength of schedule and stuff like that, but Do you think those narratives about some teams struggling against elite level of competition? Are accurate or is it just a narrative that stems from variance and small samples I think it stems from so small sample size. I've definitely heard some of these ideas from people that I really respect and are better sports better than me, but I still don't really believe I look back at these teams and the one commonality they seem to have is they both really struggled Against Buffalo, which is the team we were writing off because of their record Not me, but some people were writing off because of the record a couple weeks ago We know Buffalo is a very good team and it just seems really odd to me that you know Yeah, so Dallas can't play against the lead teams and Buffalo is the lead team, but they weren't a couple weeks ago Because of the turnovers. It doesn't make a ton of sense to me. So, um Yeah, I don't buy it I don't either and I think that a lot of it stems from like For dallas specifically I think comes down to the elite teams are just bad matchups for them And that's just coincidence. It's not they can't beat elite teams It was that the bills are a very good rushing offense or did in that game And then the other one they ping on the cowboys is the 49ers and like that's also an elite rushing offense And like that's the kind of situation where dallas can really struggle. So Like if they're facing I don't know like if you put them up against the chiefs I think dallas would play very well in that game because the rushing offense for the chiefs is pretty good But it's not quite that level and it's like it's kind of the same thing we saw with like those Packers defense is a couple years ago where like they were just really bad against the run And it kind of like nullified everything that they had So I think for me it's more so about just poor meshing with the cowboys with the With the with the dolphins we've even seen them face a lot of great teams recently Like they've had only a couple matchups against top 10 defenses so far this year and spend the jets a couple of times They're often played pretty well in both those games. It was basically just that that bills game to an extent the chiefs game, but like That was kind of funky as well. So i'm on board of the ued. I think that it's more soge variance and It's a small sample sport, but it's even smaller once you whittle it down to Just looking at the elite teams, especially once you have some like selection buys Which teams you deem to be elite in which ones you don't? Yeah, no, absolutely. Um, and just just to note about dallas like dak has gone through these interesting two seasons where you know in terms of The fraction of times he put the balls in major situations has been about the same um, but picks last year and has had really Just not a lot this year. So um, I think ball flows. Sorry dallas is uh, I guess Hope of your dallas fan is that you know, he continues to get lucky with uh, with uh, with with the turnovers I think that dak last and he might not dak last year is what's happened in my home this year Where it's a lot of balls going off receivers hands and like Maybe it's just because the receivers are trash, but it's also it's probably just bad luck So I think that definitely some bad luck or some good luck for dak this year And uh, we'll see how long it continues Absolutely, so we'll talk about that uh dolphins versus cowboys game here In just a bit, but let's begin things by talking about pretty fun game in the early slot on sunday That is the lions at the vikings or right now the lions are three point favorites total in this game has gone up a half point to 47 The lions at are still even money to make the playoffs right now despite some Really rough games recently pretty critical game here as they take on the lions Do they have the juice to keep pace here with this lions team keep this game close and potentially win it or no We shall see When I was watching minnesota and since then I this past week and I was thinking about oh, I mean I guess and then the detroit game right after that I really thought I uh, I'd be betting detroit in this spot The idea is detroit definitely has an elite pass offense question questionable on defense, but minnesota You know, I thought that game was a little bit deceiving in in terms of uh, what we saw from nick mullins There was a pick six that now got negated by a penalty I thought there was another Ball that he threw right into the hands of his insane receiver that was dropped that also could have gone a long way The other direction the data actually doesn't agree with that because it says he had Too bad balls and they both turned into interceptions So i'm not exactly sure what happened with that second one because I do think that was a legit play Um, but then you know when you go back and look at the data It's like well, I mean mullins actually had 61 passing success rate, which is ridiculously good Certainly showed all There were certainly some good things for nick mullins in there as well And traditionally he hasn't been awful in terms of putting the ball in dangerous positions Let's not give detroit too much credit for beating demver We talked last week about how demver is a fraud And a complete fraud and and don't get fooled by the fact they're almost seven point favorite against Bailey zappy this week So, you know, I have detroit by about 2.6 points my model Not showing any value here as much as I'd like to bet detroit on the road I do think they'd get this done on The road, but probably not a lot of value You know gun to head you I would certainly lean towards detroit because I do think that is the right way to go But um, you know, I mean on looking at the data on mullins. It was better than What I saw from then in the game Yeah, he uh, the way I've described nick mullins week is that he is Josh allen minus the things that make josh allen good Like without being like athletic like he's got chaos josh allen genes But then doesn't have like a good arm. It isn't fast. Um, and like there you go. Okay it's like It's frustrating to watch because like, yeah, like I looked at the efficiency numbers too and like they were good they were they were really good like he said but like I thought he's gonna get benched in that game for jaren hall at one point. Uh, like it was it was that bad And I think that if it weren't for the lions defense or past defense being as bad as it would be Maybe I would be all the lions here as well I've got the lions minus three and a half personally So the the market right between our two models sitting at three right now I think that's appropriate So I agree with that the one thing that I do see in this game is potentially an under Now it's into 47. I have 44 and a half as the total here Vikings defense has played pretty well. The lions are okay being a bit run heavy In the spots where they can run so I could see an under potentially playing through in this game But as far as the side goes, I think the market's pretty spot on here But I think the under isn't shrinking at 47 Given 47 is a key number. You're gonna push on a key number right now I think that could be the way to play this game if you were looking for action on it Um, but like I think the other thing yet is uh, yeah, cj. Gardner johnson Maybe back he's back at practice. I know For wednesday. So maybe he's back for this game. That'd be a big lift for this This lion's secondary because ed they need it. They need that all the help they can get back there right now Well, I mean honestly the personnel is a heck of a lot better than it's been the past these seasons still Yes, I do think I do think I expect a little bit more You know, I mean they were they were NFL average for a while this season I do think there's a reasonable hope they get back there But obviously having uh, all hands on deck with uh, would certainly help And I think a lot of the reason they've dipped is the injuries. So getting guys like cj. Gardner johnson back would help Quite a bit there Let's talk now about that matchup between the cowboys and the dolphins right now It is the dolphins minus one and a half of fandom sports book total in this game It's 50 and a half uh over is minus 105 on that that total has come down a point throughout the day for today And the cowboys. Yeah, they did flop last week But they had been playing a really good football up to that point now You talked a lot about this dolphin's defense and how good they've been since jaylon ramsey came back So Do you see the cowboys bouncing back here or does that dolphins defense continue to impress? Right. I mean, I I don't see a ton of value. I have miami by two points in this game I essentially am rating these two teams about the same. I think that makes a lot of sense Let's talk about the miami defense. Um, I think they were looking better And whatever numbers I was citing last week One of the things that has changed in my world is that uh, now I apply my strength to schedule algorithm But I actually make it specific to the quarterback So because there's a difference between daniel jones and and tommy devito When when you do that Miami's actually 29th in in my passing success rate on defense. That's not good Uh, you can look at a couple reasons. Uh, they weren't good against tennessee and will love us so And then, you know, they faced wilson, but they also got the benefit of uh facing tim boil and that previous matchup And as bad as he was, you know You don't look good when you face him boil, right? Like you don't you don't get a lot of credit for that So I haven't broken it down into early late season. I think that would be a little bit different, but I do think you kind of have to dock them. Yes, they look good and and yes, it's been better But you know, let's let's still keep in mind who they've had to play um So we'll see. I mean, obviously, Miami's offense is still great and and they're really, uh, you know, I mean These are two really good teams. I think it's going to be a great game. Uh, really don't have opinion or bet on it Um, but uh, yeah, let's let's hold off on thinking the Miami defense is is where where we think it might be Yeah, the quarter of x a face recently are aiden o'Connell They faced there was someone in there who was actually fine if I recall But then they faced tim boil like you said they faced will levis and levis kind of shredded them, especially late in that game He shredded them. Yeah, that's not good, right? And then they faced uh, zack wilson who got concussed I think i'm like the second play of the game He stayed in for the rest of the half but like I think he had a cast like right away And then it was trevor simian and I I love trevor simian the human being Not a huge fan of trevor simian the quarterback um so like They faced a lot of really bad quarterback play recently and once you account for that like They haven't really done that well against like competent teams other than sam howell sam howell was in the mix there too Uh, that was the other quarterback of the stretch. So it's been aiden o'Connell tim boil Sam howell will levis then a combo of concussed to zack wilson and trevor simian like Yeah, that's not a whole lot I had a I had a good one for my numbers this weekend jim because I actually wrote about green bay Steve fence and how they they went from kind of bottom-ish mid to like orc in the nfl when you when you did this analysis Yeah, uh, and one of the big reasons is like Actually, no, I didn't end up throwing out the game with brett rippin They they got the rams with brett rippin instead of matt stafford and that you know that kind of matters Kind of makes a difference a little bit and uh, so that was a good one because they they instantly got shredded by by Bay They also had, uh, you know looking back at it Tommy divvido by far had his outlier performance against Green Bay, which you can say, oh, maybe he just played that one good game But then, you know, or maybe just green Bay's defense is bad and when you trade away with jewel douglas and jair alexander is out doesn't help at all. So Yeah, so anyways, I got you know got fortunate that I wrote about green bay in the newsletter last week and You know saying some of the things about in miami. We'll see what happens against else Yeah, it's a lot, uh, you know It could be that the the packers defense is bad or that baker mayfield's best quarterback in history of football You choose, you know, it's one of the others. So baker baker mayfield. I think he has shown that he's you know Perfectly adequate. He should be a starter nfl as a quarterback on a good year and he's having a good year He's not going to bring you to this. I mean, oh, I mean, what if the jets got him this this this off season? Yeah, you know, I mean if you give him mike evans and chris godwin Baker can be fine like and that's true for a lot of quarterbacks, but like, you know, it's still something So give him a good infrastructure If he's realistic about a salary, you know, and they can actually support him with good players Then he can be fine. So, uh, it was fun to watch him shred a bit on Sunday while cleveland's turning to joe flacco in order to try to turn their season around Alrighty Ed, let's talk about that banger to finish things off on monday night The ravens at the 49ers right now the 49ers are five and a half point favorites total in this game is 46 and a half and It's a decently large spread You know Given how good the ravens are but I show value in the 49ers here Now I saw your tweets a couple days ago saying that you actually show value on the ravens So I want to talk I want you to talk me through What you're seeing here is the market overselling how good the niners are or the ravens just like Sneakily very very good and being underrated here. What's your view of this game ravens at 49ers? right, I mean, so, uh, I I think those were my public numbers that you were talking about but You know, I I tend to point out a prediction where my public numbers are pretty close to my best numbers And so I have san francisco by four in this game. I really like baltimore as a football team I really would like to bet them plus five and a half but Zay flowers and and obj aren't practicing. They're questionable mark andrews is out Cluster, I mean that has to be worth at least a couple points that if all three of them are out So, you know, there's probably a world in which flowers and obj Are 100 by monday night and and I would bet this game Uh, but I mean this this really should be a good game. I mean, uh baltimore's defense has passed Second in my passing success rate adjusted for Opponent you can see how tough they were Against jacksonville. Uh, that was last week, right? So anyways baltimore's uh baltimore's uh past events is really good. I really like both these teams. I actually have a future on, uh, uh, san francisco baltimore super bowl And the reason I bet this is is not because I actually went and calculated some numbers But uh, the fact that my son came up to me and with a youtube theory that the teams that make the super bowl Have the same colors as in the super bowl logo So he's like, you know, that means baltimore and san francisco are going to be playing in the super bowl And this was at least a month ago where and it was less obvious That these were the two best teams at least how based on how these are clearly the two best teams based on how they play this year Um, so he's like, yeah, yeah, can we put some money on that and uh, I was like, sure I think they're both really good football teams And so now my son is like a rabid baltimore and yeah, and uh, san francisco fan, which is which is hilarious Does he get a percentage of that wins? He does. Okay, good. He does So say i'll be his agent if I need to be like to to enforce to make sure that he gets proper credit for this Yep, no, no, no, no. He will uh, yeah, he's he's pretty pumped Okay, well, that's awesome. I have I have a ravens plus nine fifty super bowl ticket that I feel pretty good about right now I think they're plus five fifty last time I checked so Do you like that feel good about that as far as the injuries go for the ravens Uh beckham did not practice again on thursday zay flowers was at practice But then also the left tackle ronnie stanley is in concussion protocol He was at practice but in a red non contact jersey I assume that means he'll be limited on thursday if he gets in a limited practice on thursday I tend to assume he'll be cleared by monday. That's kind of in the progression is like You get in two days of practice and then you can be cleared It's been very odd though because like my like if i'm putting in Injury expectations on a monday for the upcoming games I've been assuming guys in concussion protocol will not play almost this entire year But ever since that week where brock pretty clear cleared quickly We've seen a lot of players get through protocol a lot faster than they have before and it's messing up my process So I'm annoyed by that honestly because like if like stanley playing as part of why I'd value the niners Um, it wasn't the entire reason or a stanley missing. I thought right if you were gonna be out I would show value there because it's a big ding to the ravens offense not have them Lamar sacrate is 1.5 percentage points higher when stanley is off the field versus when he's on you're facing nick bosa All these like really good pass rushers so I'm a bit annoyed by that. I might need to tweak my process as far as guys Uh cush protocol michael pittman the same thing. So it looks like he's gonna go this week too for indianapolis So i'm annoyed by that honestly. I wish they would just keep things consistent. Uh, so I can Make these projections on a monday, but It does help. I do like the over in this game too. It's gone up a point It's uh 46 and a half right now over is minus 115 the one issue with that is part of that is because I show value in the spread and If I'm if I have the Niners covering five and a half that implies more points are scored So it makes sense that I'd show value in the total over as well And if if I'm a bit overselling Uh, the Niners here that would imply that maybe a bit too high in the total too But I think 46 and a half the over there is pretty enticing Do you like the ravens enough to take the five and a half or The concerns about beckham flowers stanley and the cluster injuries worry you there Yeah, I mean, I'm gonna wait if this number is still five and a half and flowers and obj are going and stanley's going Yeah, I'll bet that. Okay. It's five and a half minus 115 right now. That was minus 105 Earlier this week, so it has been looks like there's been some action on the raven side Uh, I fanned a sports book but still at five and a half as of right now But should be a delightful game to watch on monday any other spots where you see value across week number 16 ed Yeah, I wanted to talk about Um Cleveland of houston and we have to go back to when we expected cj stroud to come off the concussion protocol Uh, I sent this out to members, but it the number, you know, it was houston minus two and a half at home And that meant you essentially had to rate these two teams equal When uh, so I've thrown out the prior on houston, so I don't I don't even consider What they've done because they've they've just been a lot better than Then we expected this preseason Even when you do that like I actually have houston right at nfl average based on data from the current season based on market so They've you know, the offense has been good No, it's been very good for having to work your quarterback, but it is um, you know, it's not an elite offense yet You know when you look over the whole span of the season You know, I have the better than nfl average Um, I have the defense has gotten a lot better But overall you have to rate them at nfl average now when you look at cleveland again I'm thinking about now now i'm telling you about the calculations that are specific to joe flacco And he's actually been pretty good Uh, which is a little bit of a surprise for the 38 year old who couldn't do crap For the new york jets last week, but you know, I mean we're taking a data-graced approach And like it's not like, you know, I mean you look at this You know almost 44 passing success rate against chicago defense that had looked pretty good in the weeks before that that has gotten healthy in the secondary and so I combine um, so kind of the new model that when when when you have a quarterback that isn't uh, who you expect at the start of the season is You know the quarterback adjusted passing success rate yards for past attempts and then um, the market model is specific to quarterbacks, too Right, so it'll tell you exactly what the market thinks about cleveland Uh, I actually have them as four points better than nfl average with flacco Uh, if you think that's too much, I probably agree with you but You know cleveland is better than nfl average and you know If you think about it like they have the best defense in the nfl No one's really going to argue about that to get them down to nfl average You really have to think flacco in the offense is quite significantly below nfl average to get to a point where you know You want houston You can make that number houston minus two and a half right and I just couldn't get there You know my model actually liked cleveland favored with cj stroud And so clearly got a little bit lucky here. Uh strouts out looks like case games going to play You know the numbers move to cleveland minus two and a half I don't know quite where to to put the number now You know, I think case games are pretty good quarterback. Uh in terms of the realm of nfl backups um, so But but anyways earlier in this week, this this was great. Um, and I thought the analysis was solid, but uh You know part of that was like, you know, he stroud might not play And so there is a probability that this is going to come screaming towards cleveland and it did Um, so obviously not available anymore, but again, I wanted to talk about Yeah, I think that that game is super interesting just because I liked it's similar to you ed You liked the brown side When stroud is projected to go I like the under when brought when stroud is projected to go because this brown's defense has been very good They've been way less good on the road than they have been at home Like they've been a very good defense once you adjust for schedule and things like that So at 42 and a half I took the under there And then now when you take stroud out, I've got this total at like 34 And it's a 40 and a half right now. Uh minus one 20 on the under So it's definitely, you know still there, but like I'm kind of that's I think that's the thing that surprised me the most This total has not come down more I know The browns have been very past heavy with flacco in addition to having that high success rate as you alluded to Like they've been very past heavy, uh more past heaviness is conducive to overs and Houston's past defense is pretty bad, but like still It seems high to have this at 40 and a half if we have case keenum starting for the Texans in this game Yeah, I mean we'll see how it goes. Uh Yeah, for sure Absolutely, okay Well, that's all that we have here for today on covering the spread But like I said, it should be a very fun week in the nfl next week three shows Tuesday with ryan williams wednesday with ed and Thursday with ed as well talking college football to get you set for the semifinals on wednesday and nfl week 17 Coming at you on thursday to get those shows as they are posted Make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can also find us on the fandall youtube page And fandall tv plus ed. What is going on for you this week at the powerink? Yeah, check out my free sports betting email newsletter. You can get that at the powerink.com 5 no, it's saturday, uh try to uh get some bets from from other people That I think are sharp was fortunate enough to have two winners Last week from from ryan newton over at four for four and then cleat da who Is pretty well respected quantitative better So yeah, check that out if you're looking for action on any given weekend. Uh, check it out at the powerink.com All right, you can find ed on twitter at the powerink ed happy holidays to you and happy holidays to our listeners out there as well Appreciate all of you for tuning in you can find me on twitter at jim sonnis You can find me on threads at jim dot sonnis You can find fandall research on twitter at fandall research have a fantastic weekend everyone Be happy be safe be healthy and we'll talk to you once again next week on tuesday to get you ready for week 17 This has been covering the spread right here on the fandall podcast network