 The final race of the first round of the NASCAR Cup series playoffs coming up on Saturday night and what better place to play host than a cut off to a cut off race than Bristol with the annual night race the only race on the concrete this year at Bristol kind of a bummer but Excited to see how things play out on Saturday Bristol always one of my favorite tracks eating back to when I was like 10 years old written for Elliott Sadler So punk to see how things play out the playoff implications exciting here, but also an exciting one made DFS perspective I think a pretty clear way to attack things here And some good drivers who do fit the way we want to play things So let's dive on in and get you said for some DFS on Saturday welcome on into the heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number fire that's right here on the fan dual podcast network in number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm here to make break down the best pro shops night race with locks ever 730 Eastern on Saturday 730 p.m. Guess I should clarify that maybe either way 730 Saturday is when lock will hit So if you again are a procrastinator and don't fill the lines to later on make sure you do so You can do it right now line ups already said so you can do your line ups now as you're listening We'll just get them in by 730 on Saturday night We'll take a look at the track breakdown here in just one second first a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed To the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed a lot of good stuff there for this weekend We have our week two NFL DFS preview podcast already posted myself and Brandon can do a little breaking down our thoughts on the main slate some Time was a driver's some players were targeting each position games We want to stack and much more Austin Swain previewed USC Vegas 37 that is up as well on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed is thoughts of their Favorite fighters need salary tier is there also of course MLB DFS podcast every weekday still Until the end of the regular season so make sure you hit that subscribe button and while you're there Leave us a rating and review as well Hey college football fans the highly anticipated week three slated games It's set to take place this Saturday and fan duel and Facebook are teaming up to make sure you get the most out of your weekend introducing the take on anything contest presented by Facebook a Completely free to play daily fantasy contest centered around Saturday's 14 game college football slate The contest is simple all you have to do is build your best seven player line up and follow along as the games are Played to compete for a share of the $25,000 prize pool including $5,000 first place again It's totally free with matchups like Alabama versus Florida Auburn Penn State Michigan State Miami on the schedule there is bound to be some fireworks throughout the day Saturday Kickoff is right around the corner. So download the fandall app and get on the action today Again, it's free. You should say free entries when they come eligibility restrictions apply for more details of the fandall Com or download the fandall fantasy app Let's take a look at the track breakdown here for the Bristol night race and it's gonna feel very similar to the past two weeks the one difference is that we need to be even more aggressive in hoarding laps led on Saturday the reason is this race is even longer It is 500 laps that means there are 50 fandall points available for laps led and a whole lot of them are gonna Wind up in the perfect lineup Despite that in last year's playoff race you go back to Bristol only two playoff drivers were in the perfect lineup That could happen again here. There are a couple reasons why though I still want three playoff drivers in most line-ups The first one is that that race had a lot of volatility You had some long green flag runs, but the playoff drivers had issues only five playoff drivers finished inside the top 10 Five others finished 20 at the lower. So they had issues When there are fewer playoff drivers who finish well Fewer will be in the perfect lineup shocker. That's the way things work Which could happen again because Bristol is a volatile track I just don't want to assume that's gonna happen because it does seem to be kind of a I would say more of it A less likely scenario Second one of the primary lap leaders in that race didn't finish well those Brad keselowski led 82 laps Didn't finish well and that effectively trims down the length of the race where fewer laps are available for drivers Who finish at the front of the pack? So again, it's going to be Where that happens gonna be more conducive to a two playoff driver build And that could happen here because the drivers lead laps and wreck all the time at Bristol But I I will have line-ups with just two playoff drivers, but it will not be my default That's why the three driver build should work well at Bristol overall But it also just gives us more shots at guessing right Let's say you have two lines filling out two different line-ups on Fandall, which means 10 total drivers You use two playoff drivers in each that means you're giving yourself four total shares of playoff drivers Four tries to try to get it right if you do two line-ups with three playoff drivers in each You get six shots at being right because looking at the drivers most likely to win in this race the 10 most likely winners based on my simulations are all playoff drivers So if you want to get the guys who are going to finish well compete for a win, they're going to be in the playoffs I want six swipes that trying to get that right rather than four if I'm doing two line-up stuff like that So I will have line-ups with four play with you with just two playoff drivers But I'll also have some with three and I'll have some with four I think that three is a default. I will have some with four. I'll have some with just two because I think that We do want to try to give ourselves more swipes and Identify and lap leaders and those guys are most likely to be the drivers who are in the playoffs as far as the value plays We can get some place differential there because Richmond is a very different track from Bristol. So Finishing order at Richmond helps determine where drivers will start for Saturday's race Which means that if a driver who finished well poorly last week They're not gonna necessarily run poorly this week as well because these tracks are so different If we look at the drivers rank 16th or 21st in my model as far as projected average running position They are starting to 18th and 28th for this race So that's some place differential juice there Ross Chastain is ranked 11th in my model in terms of projected average running position He will start 17th. What this means that we want to use a two-pronged approach for this week We need our studs to have upside via laps led and our value plays need upside via place differential So you need to have one of those paths to a big day because there gonna be a ton of points scored in this race It's a 500 lap race point totals will be high. There will be some place differential there So if you want to hang if you want to compete try to take down a tournament You need drivers who can push that total high Via one route or another if a driver starting 12th projected to finish 12th It's not gonna do a whole lot for you So going for the upside it will be available here try to take advantage of that and make sure your lineups are positioned To score enough points to actually take down a tournament on Saturday night as far as tracks to emphasize I'm looking at two different groups of tracks in buckets The first one is concrete tracks because Bristol is concrete so that loops in Dover and Nashville But it can also feature some slick runs on tires The falloff is not as large at Bristol as other spots But that's because laps are shorter like a half second to fall off at Bristol is Quite a bit when they're running, you know, 16 second laps and stuff like that So I will look at Richmond and Darlington to those slicker tracks And that gives me six races to look at two at Richmond to a Darlington and then one each at Dover and Nashville, but Some good drivers. I think can emerge when we do that. You could look at the Bristol dirt race I'm okay factoring it in and like bumping guys a bit of it Well, but I also don't want to penalize drivers who didn't finish well like Kyle Larson. He had issues wrecked with Christopher Bell I think both those guys are fun this week Ross Chastain didn't do well I wouldn't penalize drivers for not doing well at the Bristol dirt race And I also would not bump them up too much of they did well there because it's a very different track They won't we'll see this weekend. So to recap the overall thoughts and strategies for this race My default will be three playoff drivers per lineup I can use two at times and I can use four at times But the default will be three you can get some place differential via the value plays We'll talk about some guys who fit that very well in the tier by tier breakdown You just need drivers who can score a bunch of points via one route or another if they can get you a lap sled Sick, they get you place differential sick if they can't get one of those pretty tough sell for this week in DFS And finally I'm gonna value Dover and Nashville pretty highly in terms of predicting who will do well But then also Richmond and Darlington for some data Sprinkle of the Bristol dirt race, but again downplaying that because they're worse and really good drivers who did not run well there That's the strategy. The question is which drivers fit that well Let's do that now by talking about the tier by tier breakdown based on the salaries at fan duel calm starting off with the elite tier that is Kyle Larson at fourteen thousand dollars through Chase Elliott at twelve thousand five hundred dollars and I'm gonna rank Larson first even though my win simulations give Hamlin the better win odds this week There are two reasons. I'm high on Larson. The first one is that he is amazing at Bristol. He has said flat out This is his favorite track. I believe that was the case a couple years ago Larson's never won here, but he was runner-up in both 2018 races He's led a ton of laughs and he's now in better equipment Second Larson has been great on concrete this year. They've had two races on concrete Larson's average running position those two races is first and first Disgusting so you put Larson in Hendrick equipment put him on concrete. I think he could be unstoppable here So Larson is my number one driver in DFS for this week The guy my winsons do like more is Denny Hamlin That's all due to what he has done in the 750 horsepower package He has led 868 laps across the 10 races. Nobody else has led more than 682 He's 200 laps clear of the field in this department They'll start in the front row alongside Martin Truex junior because the outside lane is a pretty serious advantage of brist slide assumed Truex Will lead like the first 10 or so laps But I think that Hamlin will take it after it could be chase le too because I was starting fourth on the outside But I think that eventually Hamlin Will take that lead and run well on Saturday So I do like both Kyle Busch and chase Elliott's their speed Richmond to me was super encouraging I was pretty down a bush in this package, but running well at Richmond I think to me says we can trust the track history of the track history says he's a beast. He's one eight times here What more can you say? I will still put Larson one and Hamlin two, but I'll put Kyle Busch three chase Elliott four these four guys to me Gonna be pretty tough to beat on Saturday night The second tier is Martin Truex junior at $12,000 through Kurt Busch at ten thousand a guy like you're a lot Shocker is Joey Logano. Logano has been great in the 70 package the 750 package all year long He has the best average finish of anyone in the sport in this package His one win came in the bristle dirt race again I'm not gonna bump guys up considerably based on that, but you know, it doesn't hurt Logano starting third which is not a great spot to be at the start of the race, but And I'm also a bit worried about the lack of speed for the Penske cars during the playoffs So that will lower me a bit on Logano compared to where I probably would have been Previously, but I'm still in I think Logano is a good option at eleven thousand five hundred dollars The guy with some place differential juice this week, but also some wind potential is Kurt Busch Bush is starting in 15th. He is there because of some issues in Richmond And he's been better on the 550 tracks in the 750 so far this year, but Bush did run well in Darlington He was fast in Nashville, which is also concrete He is a six-time winner here including one back in 2018 So the bush is just mop up at Bristol the 750 speed Means that bush might be a better cash gameplay than tournament play I think that you have some leeway to be underweight on bush in tournaments because He hasn't been as fast in the 750 package So keep that in mind his track record though does mean that I will be there Even if I'm not necessarily above weight on him relative to the field I'd also say that Ryan Blaney pretty fun sleeper option potentially pivot off of bush here So Blaney pretty volatile, but he can you can win this race. I think I would definitely say that for sure I'm right this year Logano one Kurt Busch two for the safety, but I could see again being underweight Blaney is three Kevin Harvick is four Martin Truex jr. Five and Brad keselowski six Truex has really bad history at Bristol, but Keselowski kind of seems like he's out to lunch. So I'm not going to touch it Truex I'd rather use over keselowski for this week The mid-range is Christopher Bell at $9700 or Tyler right at $8500 Ross chest eight is in this tier He's the headliner here given how good he has been during the playoffs and not often this week I'm not gonna not gonna deviate not gonna give some hot take now I'm not going off. He was awesome in Nashville very good on concrete and the XINITY series So I'm still there, but if you use chest eight at $9500 you need another low salary playoff driver To get in a third guy there I do like bush and Blaney in the tier above this but two other drivers down here to consider our Tyler Reddick Christopher Bell Bell is $9700 he will start sixth So I bet as a result of that he's pretty low rostered. He's right between chest eight and bush both those guys be popular So I think Bell an amazing Tournament level play this week and I want to be overweight here because Bell was great on concrete in the XINITY series He won three times across eight races between Bristol and Dover He has three top fives in this package this year one of those came last week at Richmond So I desperately want to be overweight of Christopher Bell for tournaments this week I think he is an elite pivot off of Chastain and Bush I'm gonna be there pretty heavily for sure as far as Bell In the XINITY series he won just once at Bristol in 2019 He won one of those two races The reason he didn't win twice is because Tyler Reddick won the other one Reddick hasn't been as good in this package as Bell has but he has a lot of overlap with Larson in terms of which tracks They run well at and Larson is outstanding here Reddick had a 10th place average running position at Bristol in the second race last year finished fourth in that race So I like him a bit more than Bell for cash games. He's starting lower in the race He has a lower salary both these guys are pretty fun So I'm gonna rank this tier Chastain one Reddick two for cash games Bell three But Bell might be the best guy in this this tier for for tournaments. I don't know probably still Chastain But like I like Bell a lot too all both why not? Byron is for Alma Rolla five Alex Bowman number six The value tier is Austin Dillon at eight thousand dollars through Daniel Suarez at sixty three hundred dollars This is a really good tier and weirdly Two of the guys I like most even not considering a salary are actually starting near the bottom of this tier or have salaries You're the bottom of this tier those guys are Daniel Suarez and Bubba Wallace Suarez 6300 dollars starting back in 21st He almost won the Bristol dirt race that does not matter because of how different the track was but you know Not gonna say no to it Suarez ran well here when he had good equipment He finished top ten at both Dover and Nashville the two concrete races this year. So I Think Suarez at sixty three hundred dollars is in play for cash games If you use him it makes it a lot easier to get to Chastain and cash I'd like to get to Chastain and cash So I think Suarez really solid option for this week at sixty three hundred dollars really moves the needle So definitely considering it for this week Wallace also has a good track record at Bristol He was top ten here last year in bad bad bad equipment He was 14th the year before that as well his best 750 race so far this year was a Nashville on concrete He's starting 28th seven thousand dollars I prefer Suarez between the two and I don't think Wallace is a cash game consideration But I do like both these guys a ton Suarez over walls, but I do like both I also like Matt DiBenedetto chase Briscoe Ricky Senna's junior in this tier They're all placed differential guys with some upside deep in a dead I almost won here back in 2019 with Levine family racing Briscoe had a win two runner-ups at Bristol in the Xfinity series He also won at Dover Stenhouse for career top fives of this track He Shockingly wrecks a lot here who could have guessed Ricky Senna's junior at Wreck, but I'm still there the upsides there So this is a great tier this value tier is amazing It makes me feel better about being able to get to more of the studs jamming in those guys I think this tier being strong does help things quite a bit The punting tiers Chris Busher at $6,000 on down Bushers another potential salary saver. He is $6,000 is starting 25th finished 8th in this race last year He actually had a fifth place run at Bristol when he had really bad equipment back in 2016 So I think Busher could scoop some place differential Again, not as high on him as Suarez, but I do like him his teammate Ryan Newman also fine $5,800 running 24th just doesn't have the best upside So Bushers the primary punting option and then Newman after that it gets a little bit more shaky Trying to look at some other guys here. Maybe we could talk up Eric Jones fine. He was good at the dirt race been fine here in when he was in good equipment He's not anymore though Like Cori LaJoy's talent. I think that that that helps but I think to me it's more about Busher and Newman here But smaller is really the the star among the guys below $7,000. Let's finish up here at the picks to win for the Bristol night race on Saturday I'm gonna go with my guts or my simulations that worked last week because Truex was not the most likely winner of my simulations I overwrote that and decided to go with him anyway, and he won so we'll do that again I'm gonna pick Kyle Larson to win on Saturday night Just really hard for me to say no to a guy who was amazing here back in the day Has been amazing on concrete and I'm picking a guy straight up not relative to the to his betting odds So I'll go Kyle Larson as my pick to win in the high tier in the low tier We are going right back to the well going right back to the well with Christopher Bell. Once again He's been awesome to us recently. He had the he's had top 5s and at Road America top 5 They do ham shirt top 5 that Richmond all those times. He was the lower-sourced win picks So let's run it back one more time Christopher Bell the win pick below $10,000 $97 a fan duel for this week Very fair salary, and I would not be shocked at all if he were to Potentially pick up a win it pushes way to the second round on Saturday night That is all that we have here for this week's podcast premium Bristol again It should be a delight to watch a cutoff race once again at Bristol Not a ton of like, uh, I don't think we'll see a ton of desperation outside of maybe like William Byron or something like that But overall just just a good race no matter what I'm excited to see how things play out on Saturday And get set for next week in round number two as well If you've got more questions for me I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis j i m s a n n e s you can also follow the Fandell podcast network at Fandell podcast again Check out all the NFL podcasts or all the podcasts We've got here on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed NFL UFC NASCAR, of course NLB PGA I think they'll the Ryder Cup contest fight a guess so a lot of stuff here hit subscribe and leave a rating or review If you like what you hear big thank you to everyone for tuning in for this week Good luck to you with your NASCAR DFS lineups for Bristol. We'll talk to you once again next week This has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire