 Help if I turn it on is this hot it is on thank you Good morning everybody welcome. Thank you for coming. This is a real pleasure To have ambassador West micott with us today. I must tell you however. I woke up in the middle of the night With a nightmare and the nightmare was that ambassador West micott was running a competing thing tank in Washington, DC And my market was disappearing quickly. I mean this is I've had the privilege of Of listening to the ambassador on numerous occasions, and I there's no one more gifted in the world of analysis than this man and And frankly he had he would steal the show if he were running a competing thing tank in Washington I'm so glad I woke up and realized it was just a dream and and a bad dream at that So instead I have the great privilege of welcoming here This is a an individual who In the very best tradition of fine diplomacy Listeners and understands an audience far better. He doesn't spend time talking. He spends time listening And it's the reason that you see such deep insights Into what's going on in this country how we're interacting in the world and how this very special Relationship that we have with the United Kingdom is shaping that world And so we're very very fortunate that he's offered to spend some time with us today To give insights into how the United Kingdom is moving through challenging days, but moving through those days with a great deal of Energy and liberation and how what it means for us We do we tend To not spend enough time thinking about these fundamental positive values that we have and how it reinforces what we can do together So I'm this is exciting and we're delighted that you're here Peter. Thank you for Joining us. I must say I've been looking forward to this and I'm so glad not as a competitor But as a as a beneficiary, would you please welcome the ambassador of West Macau? Maybe that works now Dr. Henry, thank you so much. That's a very scary Introduction the bad news is that I'm going to talk a little bit and then I'm going to look forward to listen Listening to people's questions and comments Which may or may not be related to what I've got to say But the the discussion afterwards is always the most fun part of it But it's a great privilege to be here and I'm not set foot in this very smart new CSI was building before now So that's also a first for me and I'm thrilled to be here And thank you all for coming at this rather early time of the day I'm going to speak for a few minutes About if you like UK place in the world and what we think we're doing and our perspective on some of the current issues Scampering over a number of different subjects and then we'll stop as soon as I can and get into the fun part of it But today's rather a good choice of date for this discussion from my point of view in any case The first is the point that John Henry was making which is that I think in terms of diplomacy Today is important in that we are having another go to see whether we can reach agreement on what we call a first step Understanding between the P5 plus one and the Iranians in Geneva We think that's a very important opportunity We the Brits and the rest of the P5 plus one think this is the moment to try to reach that interim agreement And see whether we can build on that and produce something comprehensive if the Iranian side is serious about it But I'll say something about that in a moment and the second reason which is a rather sadder one why it's an important Moment for me at least to say something about the 90 Kingdom in its diplomacy and our role in the world in its relationships Is that today happens to be the 10th anniversary of Probably in fact certainly the worst terrorist attack which British diplomats have ever sustained and nothing compared I'm sorry to say to some of the terrible attacks which Americans have sustained But in Istanbul 10 years ago today the consulate general when I was ambassador in Turkey was attacked by a pickup truck with two and a half tons of Explosive which killed 10 of my staff and two of the policemen who were guarding our premises and my foreign secretary and permanent secretary of our foreign command office are in Istanbul today and commemorating that loss of life and that terrible event Which is a reminder. I think of the risks which diplomats Journalists academics many other people these days face as they try to make a difference in some of the more dangerous parts of the world the United Kingdom has Stake the obvious perhaps always been a trading nation and driven by geography to engage with the rest of the world Far away from our own and natural borders and over the centuries We have developed networks of global interests and relationships taking advantage also of the fact that we were The countries in the country in which the agrarian and the industrial revolutions took place So we feel we've got history as well as geography in our favor in establishing where we come from and to some extent what we are today We got less than 1% of the world's population But we've got the sixth biggest economy and we've got trading links around the world We're fortunate enough to have top-table membership of all the major international bodies Security Council the European Union World Bank g8 whose presidency we hold this year and of course NATO and There we're proud to be acting as hosts of the NATO summit next year in Wales And our military is able to meet threats wherever in the world that they arise Even very far away from home on land on sea in the air and in cyberspace We even like to think that our foreign service remains amongst the best in the world Of course, I'm entirely objective in making that comment But we are the employer of choice of university graduates in the United Kingdom beating the oil companies the investment banks and even the BBC Which means that we are still able to attract the best recruits We can't always keep them but you know Some of us who can't be employed during in the elsewhere state of state till the end and the others at least Have the experience of working for what we think is one of the very finest diplomatic services at least for a while And we're bucking the general trend, which is that we are growing our diplomatic network We are opening or reopening 20 new embassies and consulates despite the fact that we've got a flat cash settlement from our Treasury In terms of resources and we're trying to direct that particularly towards emerging regions and Continents Latin America and Asia in particular. We've now got an embassy I think for the first time in many many years in every ASEAN country and in pretty well every Latin American country And of course we have an unparalleled partnership with the world's most important and powerful democracy And it's often said but I think it bears repeating that whatever the United Kingdom sets out to achieve in the world We have no more important partner in those endeavors than the United States And in the 20th century that partnership played a very important role in facing down fascism and in subsequently Winning the Cold War and we think it's been instrumental in confronting and disrupting global terrorism since then Even as we continue to strengthen our links in Asia and Latin America and Africa Our special relationship with the United States and the values and the mutual respect on which it's built remain vital to our ability To shape the world that we live in and we see this in the way We're squaring up to some of the challenges which we're all facing today Some are like the Syrian Civil War the Iranian nuclear program are pressing and urgent others like climate change are Slower burning but their effects are no less devastating and to meet them We need the wisdom to identify and tackle the root causes of these problems The courage to take difficult decisions and the strength of purpose to commit for the long term In Iran just to look at some of the current issues the p5 and 1 plus 1 have Steadily increased the sanctions pressure while offering to enter into genuine negotiations Which is I think why we end up where we are today with the opportunity in Geneva To make a real difference It's a strategy The effect of those sanctions and perhaps now a determination on the Iranian side to try to Recalibrate its own relationship with the rest of the world which has brought us back to the negotiating table for serious and detailed talks There are remaining gaps between the parties, but we think that they have narrowed Considerably and we think it bodes well for the outcome of the talks which have started today If we get that right we could see a preliminary deal either now this week or in the coming weeks Which would give us the opportunity to build on that to test the Iranians to see whether they want a comprehensive Settlement which will once and for all reduce sorry remove I should say the risk of the Iranians developing a nuclear program which has a military dimension to it In Syria perhaps even more pressing in terms of the humanitarian crisis which it has spawned More than 100,000 people have been killed don't need to remind this audience of that There are 4.2 million people displaced internally and two and a half million refugees In the neighboring countries British public opinion like American and French public opinion We're skeptical about military action even after the evidence of industrial scale use of chemical weapons But the threat of that military action in our judgment did play an important role In creating the pressure for the plan on which we're now working to destroy serious chemical weapons That plan is progressing better than most of us actually expected or even dead hope But foreign policy perhaps like legislation on Capitol Hill sometimes seems a bit like sausage making the process isn't always pretty But what does count is the product and yet despite moving ahead on the chemical weapons front Assad continues to terrorize his people with more conventional means of destruction And we urgently need a political solution to end that bloodshed and that's why Britain and America have thrown their full weight behind The move towards the second Geneva conference the Syrian National Coalition's decision in principle to attend those talks We think is good news There's no question of withdrawing from our commitment to Syria's people quite the reverse the United States United Kingdom Are the two biggest humanitarian donors our aid package at eight hundred million dollars at the moment and counting is the biggest We've ever made of its kind. We're feeding almost three and a 350,000 people a month And we provided medical support to as many again And we're working closely with Syria's neighbors like Lebanon Jordan and Turkey to cope with a huge influx of refugees They're having to shelter 2000 miles further south a broad long-term approach. He's slowly paying off in Somalia Ten years ago. It was a failed state most of the rest of the world had pretty much written it off Today there are clear signs of progress Somalia has witnessed a peaceful handover to a new president in Parliament The combination of the most representative political process in that country in a generation Amisalman Somalia security forces have retaken territory from the Shabab The economy is certainly reviving even the diaspora is coming back The UK's put together two international conferences on Somalia the first in February 2012 Was instrumental in completing the political transition and providing an extra 5,000 troops for the Amisalm Contingent and by the time of the second conference in May of this year The Somali government itself was able to draw up its plans for developing armed forces police justice system and public finances And as well as staving off hunger and disease UK development assistance is helping to build up Somalia's economy by rehabilitating damaged infrastructure And we think this approach is paying dividends because it pulls together the three vital strands of security Governance and growth because it's Somali led and because the international community has been and remains prepared for the long haul What happened in Nairobi in the Westgate terrorist attack was a horrible reminder of how far there still is to go and watch Shabab capable of But such atrocities remind us of the dangers of allowing failed states to fester They should redouble our determination to get Somalia back on its feet The unprecedented response to piracy in the Indian Ocean shows what's possible when the international community Works together in the first nine months of last year. There were 99 pirate attacks in the same period this year There was just 17 none of them succeeded and this is the result of a united international approach NATO European Union China Russian Federation Japan India all contributed to a naval effort and on land We've supported countries in the region to prosecute and punish pirates locally And of course the effort that we are was just describing to try to develop Somalia's governance and economy helps provide young Somali men We realistic alternatives to piracy and we need that kind of coordinated response in other areas For example, we can combat the recent growth of terrorist kidnapping by agreeing once and for all that we don't pay Ransoms to terrorists in the past three or four years Al Qaeda linked organizations have extorted by our reckoning at least 70 million dollars by kidnapping foreign nationals Ransom payments fund terrorist recruitment encourage more kidnapping and pay for outrages like the attack on the inner manus gas plant in Algeria Kidnap for ransom is a major part of the terrorist business model. We can break it by refusing to pay This year for the first time the g8 countries led by Britain and the United States made precisely that commitment My prime minister knows from bitter experience because we have lost lives in the process How difficult and emotive decisions like this can be Especially when your own nationals are amongst those held by the kidnappers, but we remain determined to suffocate this source of terrorist funding Another tragedy that transcends national boundaries is the sexual violence that so often accompanies conflict and other emergencies The statistics are sobering in the hundred days of the Rwandan genocide One-sixth of a female population of Rwanda is estimated to have been sexually assaulted Rates of sexual violence dramatically increased during humanitarian crises and military conflicts yet Prosecutions are shockingly rare and to tackle this impunity the United Kingdom has put together a team of experts in fields like criminal investigation Forensic science and law to help local authorities gather evidence and build cases against perpetrators And that team has already been deployed in the Syrian border areas to Bosnia to Libya to Mali and the Democratic Republic of Congo And we're working at the political level to encourage other countries to take a similar approach More than two-thirds of the United Nations members have signed up to the Declaration of Commitment to End Sexual Violence in Conflict Which my boss William Hague launched at the UN in September at the General Assembly Next year we will be hosting a major forum on the issue and it's work which builds on the efforts of Hillary Clinton under the American G8 presidency last year Reports of widespread sexual violence in Syria and of criminality in the aftermath even of typhoon Haiyan Remind us of how urgently progress is needed on this front We're also committed to the wider task of empowering women and girls around the world Depriving them of the chance to release their potential is not just morally wrong But it holds up the economic development of whole countries and one of the most important ways of reversing this injustice Is to support female leaders the vital voices project established here in the United States By Hillary Clinton Melanne Baviere and others who were powerful advocates of the cause is one such valuable program Also supported as it happens by the British government It makes a difference by providing training for women leaders who want to realize their potential But have been held back by problems which limit their capacity to do that in all areas politics business and society more generally one of the other gravest International long-term challenges, which I touched on very briefly just now is climate change We think that the evidence is overwhelming It is happening and human industrial activity is largely to blame And amongst the regions that will be hardest hit as some of the most volatile like sub-Saharan Africa resource scarcity combined with existing Conflicts and new extremes of weather make for extremist extremely combustible mixture in a networked world It is everybody's problem in 2008 We became the first country to pass legally binding emissions reduction targets We were instrumental in pushing the European Union to set its own in 2020 targets We're keeping up the pressure for even more ambitious 2030 targets and what all of us need now is a global deal backed by tangible commitments President Obama's climate action plan Reinforces America's credibility in arguing for such a deal and is likely we believe to make a real difference here on the ground Thanks to his plan and in no small measure to the shale revolution We have every confidence that the United States will meet its carbon reduction commitments, which it made back in Copenhagen It's a good start But we're all going to have to do a lot more if we're to avoid the worst effects of climate change In the long run the answers to many of these challenges are going to have to come from sustainable global development In the UK We're proud of the fact that we are the first major economy to meet the agreed target of spending 0.7 percent of our gross National income on development assistance a commitment We've managed to maintain even even as we've had to make some pretty swingeing cuts in other areas of public expenditure It's the right thing to do We can't stand aside while three quarters of a billion people lack drinking water and girls in southern Sudan I'm more likely to die in childbirth and complete primary Education we're in a position to help the poorest and help them we should That by the way is an assessment with which our citizens all agree Tax arrangements and an extraordinary culture of giving make America one of the most generous countries in the world Yet even in 2010 when our economy was at a very low ebb the average British household gave 160 dollars per head to sorry per family to Overseas development causes while in America the figure was actually at 135 So both of us making a huge contribution both domestically and internationally Development also helps our own economists by opening up markets and creating opportunities for trade and investment And it's an important tool of national security ungoverned spaces Breed threats like terrorism crime piracy Extremism disease and uncontrolled mass migrations We've got to help those countries before they become broken Which is why the UK is committed to spend a third of its foreign aid budget on assisting fragile states Meanwhile, we've been looking hard at the effectiveness of what we do with our development assistance We've moved funds away from underperforming programs and organizations We've clamped down on corruption and put checks in place so that citizens can actually see where their tax money goes when it's spent on International development and some years ago We got rid of the requirement that food aid had to be spent on British produce Because we think that the alternative approach based on the market means we can get more food to where it's needed more quickly and more cheaply We know what the conditions are for genuinely sustainable development peace law and order Defensible property rights accountable government My Prime Minister David Cameron has linked them together in what he calls the golden thread of development to allow countries to escape from poverty and Dependence it's not just a British idea the high-level panel on post 2015 Development goals for the United Nations of which David Cameron is co-chair along with the presidents of Liberia and of Indonesia Has recommended global targets on open government free political choice rule of law Property rights and freedom of speech and putting these values into practice is a very ambitious program But an essential one No worries our support more urgent today than in the Arab world in the very early days of the Arab Spring the UK established an Arab partnership with a hundred and eighty million dollars of funding for projects to strengthen fundamental building blocks of Democracy like the media like election observers Legal and judicial systems this kind of work and the other efforts needed to realize the promise of the golden thread Can't be carried out by one country acting alone So we put it at the top of our agenda for the UK's presidency of the G8 this year G8 members are now helping developing countries build amongst other things tax collection systems One example the UK has helped Ethiopia increase its tax take sevenfold in less than a decade Tax revenues we may not all like paying taxes But they pay for services and infrastructure and by funding official salaries. They reduce demand for bribes We must also face the fact that Western companies haven't always behaved that well in the developing world corruption also perpetuates inequality Reduces confidence in governments deep stabilizes the business environment and arrests development America has led the way with transparency standards for the extractive industries Requiring us listed firms to disclose project by project the payments they make to foreign governments The European Union and Canada have recently committed to equivalent standards So collectively now 83 percent of extractive companies are following the same code Governments of course don't have all the answers to these problems So we're also working very closely with the best NGOs wherever they happen to be based In our case amongst others we're working with a Clinton health access initiative to reduce the cost of anti-retroviral Drugs in the developing world and with the Gates Foundation to develop new technologies to make farming and poor countries more productive And we engage with a private sector small example We've worked with Vodafone to bring cell phone banking to Kenya In a system which now has 17 million users and handles transactions Representing nearly a third of Kenya's GDP The global distribution of power is therefore changing and evolving in a lot of different and unpredictable directions We're moving rapidly as William Hager's put it to a G20 plus world Where power and wealth are not concentrated in the hands of the same old few but increasingly dispersed Around the globe where there are more and more important players We've got to be willing to form new partnerships on specific issues But accepting that we won't agree with those partners on everything We work with China to help vulnerable countries like Bangladesh and Nepal prepare for natural disasters But it doesn't prevent us from disagreeing openly and fundamentally with the Chinese government on human rights or the state's role in the economy Britain and America share a set of values free speech free enterprise rule of law From Tunisia to Burma these values continue to inspire people seeking change in their own political and private lives It must stay that way. We've got to show that our political and economic systems Not only still function, but still represent the best path to liberty and prosperity This Friday marks another melancholy anniversary in addition to the one today that I just mentioned for us Given our history in Istanbul half a century since John Kennedy was assassinated in Dallas In his inaugural address one of those many memorable things that he said was the following To those peoples in the Hudson villages of half the globe. We pledge our best efforts to help them help themselves 50 years on I think the world is a different place Much of Africa for example is now seen more as an opportunity than just a developmental challenge But the moral and strategic imperative remains Because again as JFK summed it up if a free society can't help the many who are poor It certainly can't save the few who are rich Thank you very much Well, good morning everyone. Thank you Ambassador Westmikot. What a tour de force of British policy interests and of course our condolences on the 10th anniversary It seems hard to imagine it was 10 years ago, but it's an important reminder Of the important work our diplomats do my name is Heather Conley I'm senior fellow and director of the Europe program here at CSIS and we have according to my watch about a half an hour of Some good questions and answers. I I warn you Ambassador Westmikot. This is a tough audience They ask very very tough questions So what we'd like to do we're gonna bundle to get as many in as we can And then if you could we have some microphones if you could give us your name and your affiliation Keep those comments short and those questions thought-provoking and I think we can go go through quite a bit Ambassador I'd like to start us off if if I may and take the moderator's prerogative And I would be fired as director of the Europe program if I did not talk about the UK's role in Europe as my topic of Conversation There was an interesting Op-ed in the New York Times yesterday with the title is Britain sleepwalking toward disaster And this was regarding The referendum and as I look as much as the British role in the world is evolving and The role in Africa the Middle East Asia is growing the dynamics within Europe are Incredible just looking at the potential for Europe's Britain's Referendum on its EU membership Scottish referendum of independence next year Conversations intense conversations with Spain over Gibraltar lots of dynamism. So I would I would welcome your thoughts in the next several months to years of The UK's role in Europe its leadership and as Phil Gordon former assistant secretary of state Noted in London in January that I quote referendums have often turned countries Inward and every hour at an EU summit spent debating about the institutional makeup The year of the European Union is one less hour spent talking about how we can solve our common challenges So I'm gonna start with a hard ball. I think and I'd love your thoughts on that Well, I knew we'd start with a nice easy question I think that There are several different issues which are which are out there as part of the United Kingdom and its role in Europe And indeed the future of Europe. Let me check out a few thoughts one The United Kingdom is not alone in having a public opinion Which is asking itself a lot of questions about where the European Union has got to and where it is headed Part of this is to do with what's happened in the eurozone of which we are not members But which has had a financial meltdown even more significant if you like than the European Union as a whole where some of us have remained outside the eurozone and Carried on as masters of our own economy and our own currency Nevertheless, I think it has had an impact on general perceptions of Europe so too has the movement towards integration and the growth of European institutions Which have for whatever reason led public opinion to ask itself some questions about whether the right degree of what we call Subsidiarities that applies in other words are the member states still being allowed to control their own destinies and their own Futures to the extent that they should be in those areas which don't need to be governed collectively as part of The Brussels institution and it's not a hundred percent different from the attitude in some states of the United States Towards federal authorities in in the much-hated beltway Why do we have to have those guys telling us what to do in the federal authorities when we're perfectly happy to be our own States there's a very loose parallel sometimes with those sentiments and this has combined with a period of economic difficulty where people have been struggling and Where sometimes they have felt that Europe's institutions haven't been directly related to the realities of you know fiscal deficit reduction programs And other problems together with the European Parliament an institution which has got more and more powers Beginning to get into territory where some public opinions say well hang on What about our national parliament is it really right to have those? responsibilities given to the European Parliament so What you've got is in a number of countries Britain is one But it's not the only one is a degree of what has become known as Euroscepticism and people saying has this all gone a bit too far. Should we call Halt are they spending too much of our of our tax Dollars and should we be looking again at how Europe works and what my Prime Minister has done Because of the degree of Euroscepticism partly within his own party, but also in public opinion more generally is to commit himself Should he receive the necessary mandate at the next general election in Britain, which is in May 2015 To renegotiate the terms of membership and to seek fresh consent from the British people for membership of the European Union We do not know whether there will necessarily be whether there will definitely be that referendum depends on the general election result in 2015 but that is his commitment It is in my judgment a strategy to keep Britain in the European Union not to take Britain out of the European Union But it is a strategy to address the the sense of public concern about whether that's the right place for us and To late arrest the continuing debate about whether we should whether we shouldn't be should we leave should we stay And to try to make Europe work better improve its competitiveness include improve its accountability Make it function better in a way which public opinion in many different member states think is necessary the last Pew Research Study that I looked at Suggested that only in Germany did public opinion think that the answer to Europe's problems was more integration pretty well everywhere else said That is not the answer The answer is in fact less Europe rather than more Europe now It's a very crude judgment but those were the questions which were being put so we're addressing issues Which are also being posed in France in Sweden in Denmark in many other parts of the European Union And which coincide with a sense that there are Some European economies which are doing poorly and some which are doing extremely well Where we haven't dealt with the structural imbalances between the strong the weak Where the fiscal union isn't really in place? We've got a banking unit which is agreed in principle It isn't quite there where the banks are still not doing what public opinion things They should be doing lending finance for growth to small and medium-sized enterprises and making contribution to the escape from the European and the global recession so That's what we're addressing we're addressing an issue which is partly British, but also Europe-wide but which is fundamental to I think Charting the course of the years to come our got my government's view remains That the British interest remains in being a major player at the heart of a strong properly functioning Accountable competitive European Union and it's in that framework that I think you should see the strategy of Improving terms of membership improving the workings of European institutions Seeking fresh consent from the British people and marching ahead with an even better Europe than we have at the moment Thank you. All right. Let's bring you into the conversation. All right. We have a question here right here Linda Good morning, Ambassador My question is about sorry. I'm Patrick Wilson. I work for Babcock and Wilcox My question is more about the US role and the topic of the day for a long time in the Iran and even in the Syria Context the US was the bad cop and Europe and particularly the UK acted as the good cop in this relationship and those negotiations What does it mean for the current state of play when the United States appears to be more interested in being a good cop itself? Thank you. We'll take a question Linda, right, right I'm Peter Foster with the London Daily Telegraph Just on further following on the Iran question How concerned are you that the? Determination by some Republicans to push for further sanctions against Iran Could have an impact on the negotiations With Iran particularly assuming that you get an interim deal And we have the six month window At which we test the Iranians as you said How concerned are you that those? That pressure for sanctions in Congress could impact those negotiations towards the final agreement if there is going to be one If I can just jump in on the first question just for a little bit of clarification How much you talked about? Connecting and getting more input from the British people about the Europe Europe's role the Commons vote on Syria Was that an indication a very strong public mandate about? the UK not being as Outwardly engaged militarily in the future, and I think in some ways I was drawing on your question about Syria and the good cop bad cop Roll there. Thank you Good cops bad cops I Think that I Don't see the United States role in this as having evolved from being a Bad cop to becoming a good cop in the negotiations with Iranians, I think where we are is in Seeking to address a problem which has been out there for a decade or so where some people would argue there have been some missed opportunities to Arrest or certainly slow down the Iranian nuclear program at earlier opportunity at earlier stages back in 2004 5 maybe 2009 maybe 2007 all sorts of discussions took place none of which actually got anywhere for one reason or another And as a result we have got an Iranian nuclear program, which has continued to to advance with yet more centrifuges of Yet higher quality with a parallel Exercise in terms of the development of heavy-water reactor As well as the enrichment going ahead and growing international concern that this could lead to a Military product which would give Iran nuclear weapons, which we believe does not have at the moment. So What the B5 plus one negotiations? I think our intended to do is is not play games of good back good cop bad cop but to see whether in the context of an Iranian government Which has been through an important presidential election, which has got new leadership And which has put more real substance on the table than we've ever seen before on these nuclear issues Whether there is now an opportunity for us coming together not as good guys and bad guys And we are united on this the P5 plus one with a plan, which we can all subscribe to which brings the Iranians back from where we believe them to be at the moment and very significantly Reduces hopefully reduce eliminates all together But that don't deal with absolutes, but it moves us away from The position where we are at the moment where we fear that at relatively short notice Iran could have a nuclear weapons I think we're working on this together It is perfectly natural when you get into a negotiation where you've got Iran on one side and the P5 plus one So six other governments on the other side plus Kathy Ashton holding the ring And the P5 plus one feeling that they are operating on behalf of the international community and a number of regional powers Which have gotten very legitimate security concerns of their own It's very normal that we should be debating amongst ourselves exactly what sort of a deal that should be where we are now and we've got there in pretty short order actually is a Piece of paper which is out there which details remain Confidential which gives us the chance of a first step Understanding between the P5 plus and the Iranians Which would freeze and in some cases roll back where they are at the moment and increase Inspection arrangements so that we've got a greater degree of certainty about what's going on and Gives us then a chunk of time which might be a few months might be a few weeks to be discussed Long enough anyway to see whether the Iranians are sufficiently engaged on the substance of all this stuff To be ready to subscribe to a comprehensive settlement Which reassures the region and the rest of us about their nuclear intentions and to an extent that allows us To wind back a significant portion of the sanctions which have played such an important role in bringing us to the present stage So I think we're talking about a First step which is reversible which is worth having Which is better than the status quo, but which is still pretty modest Let's see if we can do that We happen to share the view of the United States government and the rest of P5 plus one that it's worth having There are other people some of them on Capitol Hill as you were saying There are other governments which aren't nervous about this in any negotiation. It always seems to me It's always pretty well impossible for every party to get a hundred percent of what they want if the other party is going to Agree to the result of that negotiation So there's got to be a degree of understanding and give and take But this will not be done on the basis of blind trust They will have to be controls verification inspection. We'll have to know what's going on given the Very poor record the Iranians have had over the years of Misleading people and not telling the entire truth about their nuclear program Do the does the threat of the sanctions from the US Congress impede all that Well, I think we've always known that the Congress has its views the administration has its views I have some friends in the Congress Who feel that the interim First step that we're talking about at the moment gives too much to the Iranian side in exchange for not sufficient Certainty about where they will be going. It's not the view of the administration But frankly if there is pressure whether it's through the banking committee or whether it's through the National Defense Authorization Act or through some other Some other legislative framework to pile on more sanctions Well, one thing that that does convey to our Iranian friends partners in this negotiation is that public opinion and Political opinion and Capitol Hill does remain does still require a great deal of convincing of Iranian good faith If we are to be able to move towards a comprehensive settlement at the end of this current negotiation So I think it's a it's a political reality. We'll see what happens I personally very much hope that we will at least have time to see whether the negotiation on the first step arrangement Can succeed before we get to the stage of having additional sanctions applied one way or another But we'll have to see where all the different players come out in this in this particular exercise But what is very clear is that this is a very major Political diplomatic issue in which the stakes are very high, but unfortunately the levels of trust are pretty low Thank you very much. I'm John Schwenk with BAE Systems There's been a lot of discussion about the impact on of British budget cuts for their defense on Manning levels and sort of say number of aircraft and ships being built and acquired I'm curious on your views on the subsequent ability For the UK to then engage with those lower numbers and with the less equipment around the globe not only in response to Sort of emergencies and crises, but on a day-to-day security cooperation basis as well. Thank you Vince Morelle with the Congressional Research Service following up on Heather's theme initially in that question now The EU has a big summit coming up next month on security and defense policy review And I'm wondering if your government has any going in position To this summit do you have any expectations at all for the outcomes of this summit and does this summit may be portend a very large and internal European discussion of where it goes in the future with respect to defense and security issues which will culminate in a discussion at NATO's Summit next year on on where NATO goes in post-Afghanistan and I'm going to two finger before the December Council meeting on the common security and defense policy a very important Vilnius summit in less than two weeks about the Eastern Partnership countries and That agenda so we'd welcome your thoughts on that as well And I didn't answer your question really about what the House of Commons vote on Syria meant so I'll come back around I can Mop that up. I think Perhaps I can try to answer that as well as dealing with the question about defense cuts and what that means for the UK's credibility Let me say on the political side And touching on the House of Commons a vote at the end of August on the question of whether or not to join the United States in taking military action against Syria I don't myself think that that has got profound far-reaching implications for the United Kingdom's Whatever word you want to use reliability as an ally. I think what it does show Just as the decision to go to United States Congress on the very same issue shows and just as the polling of public opinion in France, which was the other country which was ready to take military action shows Is that public opinion these days in all of our Western democracies? Is pretty circumspect about the idea of foreign military Involvements especially where there is not a perceived visible direct threat to their own national security So the fact that public opinion polling was showing there was a majority against taking military action against Syria even after the clear use of industrial scale application of chemical weapons by the Assad regime is I think an indication that public opinion in all of our countries Is not so sure about military accent and wants to be very clear about the rationale This is partly the legacy of 2003 in Iraq It is partly people saying what can we entirely trust what politicians general spies everybody else tells us of what's going on And it's also a sense of is there not a limit to which we can solve other people's internal problems So I think there's a it's more a sign I think of public opinion ask itself some searching questions at a time when let's never forget this Military action overseas is expensive and people are very worried about their own pocketbook issues and about cuts that are being applied Domestically to things that touch them directly as a result of deficit reduction programs I think it's more that than anything else and I would underline that on the issue of Syria My government's view was that he did wish the Parliament to give consent to the United Kingdom joining United States If the United States was going to take military action, there's a Parliament that decided otherwise But actually decided otherwise for a number of different reasons the vote was only 13 Short of the majority and some of the people who would have voted the right way It turned out to be not present in the voting lobby on the day There was a there was a degree of cock up more than there was an issue of conspiracy if I can put it In the way in which the numbers in the end came out That's not in any sense to say that this was not a key sovereign judgment and decision and vote by the British Parliament But I wouldn't attach of too much importance to what that meant about Britain's view of its place in the world or of the relationship with the United States I think more generally on defense capabilities and so on we have taken Quite a strategic view to what we are trying to do with our Defense budget we are one of the very few European countries, which of course still exceed the 2% GDP spending a commitment of NATO countries But we've also taken steps in the last few years in our strategic defense reviews to try to ensure that we're spending that money on Having people and skills and equipment Which allow us to respond to what we think are most likely to be the threats which we are facing over the next couple of decades That's why we're building couple of aircraft carriers. That's why we're going to have Ships to put on aircraft to put on them We will have the right version of the F-35 joint strike fighter We will have some helicopters We won't have them all quite at the same time, but we will get there before too long and we retain a An ability to operate at long range at short notice to take action where there is a real need to do so we have we believe One of the finest special forces in the world We have a lot of equipment to allow them to do the right thing And we have tried to ensure that our procurement programs buys the right equipment at the right price Coming from the United States of America to enable us to fulfill Those those tasks Our armed forces in terms of numbers are indeed getting smaller But I think the important point to make about defense spending. It's not just about the headline figure It's how you spend it what you do with it What your posture is and how willing you are To risk blood and treasure in defense of the values you stand up for and I think our record in Afghanistan a number of other countries Recently shows that the United Kingdom armed forces are ready and capable of doing what is necessary when our government And the British people decide that it's right to do so for our national security interests and indeed because of our alliance commitments, so I think If you had a booming budget if you had lots more revenue if you had a huge surplus There may well be people in my parliament who would say let's put a bit more into the defense pot But I think we're holding our own in a very difficult Fiscal environment and for the first time in very many years and rather uniquely amongst NATO allies We've even managed to balance our books in terms of our defense budget Which is a very healthy basis on which to make future procurement and other commitment decisions So I don't worry in in too bad a place. We would all like to have more money for lots of different things As with the British Foreign Office But I think it's It's really not too bad and it is genuinely strategic the way in which we've looked to fresh and the commitments and the resources that we've Got available and our procurement programs as for future summits I'm not able to give you any brilliant insights into the the next round of the European consideration of all that We are already beginning to think what hosting the next NATO summit in the years time less than a year's time next September Is going to mean we're very proud of that Of course, we are not the ones who set the agenda. That'll be the NATO Secretary secretary general and the various member states But we will be Holding the ring if you like and providing the facilities for it So it will be something that which we will be caring about a great deal And we will be attaching a lot of importance to try to ensure that the alliance Knows what it's for and is transforming itself in the correct ways Under the guidance of the supreme unlike commander transformation Norfolk, Virginia and other leadership figures of the alliance So that NATO is increasingly fit for purpose interoperable and as smart as it needs to be rather than stuck in some of the Old forms of thinking which characterized much of its operations In the old days back in the time of Cold War and so on but I don't think I can give you much more I'm afraid in terms of insights for the the European summit meeting on defense international security at this point Good morning, John Evans formerly of the State Department and a colleague of Heather's Mr. Ambassador you invoked the anniversary this week of the end of the Kennedy administration Which brings to mind that Arnold Toynbee in the last year of the Kennedy administration gave a speech Which he called the continuing effect of the American Revolution and of course he did that As a kind of challenge to the Kennedy stance That we would bear any burden in the promotion and protection of democracy abroad and I just wanted to ask you if you think we have Recalibrated we and the UK have to some extent needed to recalibrate our Commitment to promoting democracy. It's it's a subject that comes up intermittently here. I have we have we gone too far in trying to to promote some of our values and Just where do we stand on that today? Yes, Terry Murphy with CSIS and also with the British American Business Association I was in London two weeks ago and the British press was filled with stories about the Shift of the closing down of the shipyard in in Portsmouth and the shifting of construction of the British carrier to Scotland and Quotes I think from your Minister for Defense. I'm not sure but pretty pretty senior person Making it pretty clear that Where Scotland to to opt out of the Europe the United Kingdom that would make it a quote Foreign country and it would be against anybody's strategic idea to build carriers in a foreign country that seemed and the press took that as a pretty explicit threat to Let the Scots know that there were going to be some Consequences pretty specific consequences if they were to vote to separate now You didn't mention any of that Mr. Ambassador in your discussions of Referendum, but I thought you might want to seize the moment to say something on it now Or or or to say we're not letting you off the hook on that question I think we can take one more and then we will let you decide. Yes, ma'am, right there. You can answer those tough questions I told you this was a tough group Yes, ma'am. Hi to be combat from the times of London Just back on Iran as you yourself acknowledge some countries have expressed grave reservations about what's happening in Geneva at the moment And one of those concern has been the speed at which things seem to be progressing Have you any concerns about that and could you just talk a bit more about how quickly the process seems to Take place Okay Are we too enthusiastic about promoting democracy and our values abroad? Well, I think I just make a couple of comments my own view is that it is difficult sometimes dangerous and sometimes arrogant to try to Suggest to other people that they should run their countries on the lines that we run ours Not least because it's taken United States and the United Kingdom and most other democracies represented here several hundred years to evolve the In every case somewhat imperfect arrangement that we try to make work to the best of our ability And we have seen from bitter experience that trying to transplant a Slowly evolved Western democracy with all the institutions that go with it overnight from an authoritarian dictatorship Into something akin to what we know and love in our own countries is a pretty damn difficult thing to do So I think we need to be very wary about how far we go down that path second thing I would say is that I think it is worth remembering that in all those Arab Spring countries where political change Took place one after the other it was all internal None of this was coming from the outside and the interesting thing was that the revolts against The largely kind of Arab nationalist dictatorships. It wasn't the monarchy is interesting Which many people thought were perhaps going to be the most fragile. It was the it was the other ones Which were the most vulnerable in Libya and Tunisia in Egypt in Syria The values which people were espousing were in many cases the kind of freedom of speech market economics Freedom of opportunity rights for women Secular functioning government kind of agenda that the rest of us might have proposed if we were in charge But we weren't and I think it's an indication of the success if you like of the export of our values Even when we're not seeking to impose them on other societies that it was precisely that kind of stuff Which motivated many of the people who were leading that revolution actually that was part of what was behind the Iranian Revolution 1978 79 we've forgotten that because like Russian revolutions and French revolutions previously quite often brave rather moderate individuals who are the first ones to To raise the flag get taken over by more Extreme groups which tend out tend to be more organized and more determined to take control of the revolutions so I think that there's absolutely nothing to be reticent about in terms of the Validity of the model that we've got even though in each place as I was saying It's a little bit different and no doubt a bit imperfect and has taken a long time to evolve But precisely because I think many other societies have sought to emulate it rather than because we have tried to impose it at the point of a bayonet, so I think It's very much up to others to make their judgments then there's the question of what do we do in support of those People who are seeking greater freedoms which are aligned with our values That is a very difficult issue because one wants to be supportive especially if they ask for it rather than we are imposing it But then there's the issue which I understand the president Obama has often posed to his national security staff I can see how I get in but tell me how I then get out Afterwards so there is that there's the fingers in the mangle issue if you start becoming too directly involved in the domestic Political evolution of other countries which are not your direct responsibility. I think I'll be very careful I think there's quite a lot that one can do There are certain things you shouldn't do and I'm afraid that the Syria example from which probably None of us really emerge with with total credit is an example of just how difficult it is to make that judgment call and to get it and to get it right and The debate continues to rage. I think none of us are washing our hands We are all desperately trying to build on a little bit of successful diplomacy on chemical weapons management to try to move towards a political transition which will stop the slaughtering and the humanitarian catastrophe of Syria But it is a difficult exercise and there are awful lot of different groups inside Syria some domestic some of them imported from elsewhere Which are making that task more difficult and it's right to try but we have to do it In support of local people rather than trying to impose something from the outside Portsmouth Scotland and building aircraft carriers slightly different subject There are some people in the United Kingdom who seem to think that there was some link between the fact that the last Prime Minister has a constituency close to where the aircraft carriers being built in Scotland That was where the final assembly took place. I have no possible comment on all that But it is a fair point to say that if Scotland was not going to be part of the United Kingdom The decisions like that would probably be more difficult to take There are a lot of issues out there which need to be thought through as people prepare Their vote in the referendum next September not very far away. It's only about 10 months And I think defense is one of them shipyards is certainly one Where will the UK nuclear deterrent be based in the future because at the moment our submarines are mainly based Fast lane which is in Scotland. There are other people who say well, what about the monarchy if you're going to be independent What about the Queen and Balmoral? There are others who say currency, you know, how are you going to operate on the question of a do you stick with the UK currency? Or do you go it alone? And I think some of those who were keen on Scottish independence also made the assumption that there would be an automatic membership of the European Union of NATO and the United Nations and so on Which flows from the Declaration of Independence? It doesn't necessarily flow like that and the European institutions have made clear that Scotland would have to apply like anybody else if he wanted to be a member of the European Union So I think there's a whole bunch of questions which are out there which need to be thought through fiscal policy defense policy political institutions membership of international organizations Funding of Scotland's wonderful health and higher education systems, you know, where would that come from in the future? Would Scotland Scotland's own tax take be sufficient for that? I think a lot of questions which are being asked quite rightly But the British government's view is that because in Scottish elections A party was elected with a mandate to hold a referendum that it is our duty to facilitate that referendum We will do all that we need to do to ensure that it happens And we will respect the outcome of that referendum, but I think the questions you raise about the defense are One of a series of questions which are out there on the agenda and will need to be thought through By people who are casting a vote which does not include by the way those of us who live south of the border Are we rushing ahead on Iran too fast, you know, we spent many years trying to Do something up to slow down if not reverse the Iranian nuclear program Somebody reminded me the other day that we could have had a deal I simplify, but this is that we could have had a deal with a hundred and sixty five centrifuges about eight years ago And there's now 18,000 of them And the longer we don't have a deal the more centrifuges or there will be whirring away the more they will be installed And maybe the higher quality they will have And and and so I think we've spent a long time looking at this issue We've come quite close as I was mentioning before to one or two Agreements over the last decade So it's not as if the subject is brand new and one of the reasons why the British government thinks that It is right to move ahead on the basis of the of the current outline first step agreement Is that the longer we don't have an agreement to stop and roll back what's happening now? Then the more centrifuges there will be the more enriched uranium we will have the further progress we made towards the installation and equipping of a heavy water reactor, which we don't think is a good idea and If we don't go ahead with what's on offer now We won't either have the benefit of what I understand are significantly improved inspection arrangements Which are in that interim agreement, but it is only a first step It does not include the winding back of any of the core financial or other oil sanctions It is reversible It's a first step We think that it's the right thing to do and we think that it is unlikely That we're going to get an Iranian government president foreign minister and other negotiators Who are more committed to trying to find a way forward than the present team? Resulting from the last Iranian presidential elections where I think it looks to the rest of the world as though the Iranian people voted for somebody who was not the automatic preference of the regime, but was somebody Who believed that it was time to change course and there is therefore perhaps an opportunity to test whether they're serious about that and No real benefit as long as we're satisfied that there is an appropriate balance in this first step No real benefit in saying no Let's spend another year or two or three talking about it And there may even be an issue about whether those who have taken some political risk if they have perhaps they have In Iran or whether it would be weakening for their policy of engagement to go home with nothing and no agreement And I think that's also a legitimate issue which has been Ventilated in quite a lot of the commentary around these negotiations Ambassador Westmikot. Thank you so much almost 40 years ago a very young a child Diplomat by the name of Peter Westmikot fresh out of language training arrived in Tehran in 1974 Right as your first posting. Yeah, I find it extraordinary that we sit here today It's British ambassador talking about a potentially historic moment visit the Iran So thank you for that full circle moment, and thank you all for joining And let me sorry just a little a little tiny coda just for fun because Heather has raised that I do remember when I was a baby diplomat Persian speaking in about 1975 that America France Germany Russia Britain to name but five Governments were all queuing up to win the contracts to help the Shah of Iran develop his civil nuclear program Thanks for that was that all right, okay, but everybody didn't say too many things are going to embarrass me in the British papers