 Okay traders that is 2pm UK British summertime. Welcome to this week's live trade analysis session with me Patrick Manley before we get going here. I'd just like to do a quick audio check if you can hear me and you can see the welcome screen if you could just type a Y in the chat box so that I know we are good to go. Testing audio 1, 2, 3. Testing audio 1, 2, 3. A Y in the chat box to let me know. Great stuff. Okay, before we jump into today's charts. As always, important that we adhere to the risk disclaimer and the most important part of that disclaimer today is that the views expressed by me here are solely mine they're not indicative of or representative of those held by Tick Mill UK or Tick Mill Europe Limited. Just a bit of housekeeping before we get going, if, if you have any questions as I walk through the charts, if you could make a note of them and at the end of the chart presentation, I'll open up a Q&A and we can, we can go back to go back to the chart if you have a specific question, or indeed, if you have a chart you'd like me to take a look at that I haven't reviewed in the, the deck then you can, you can ask me at that point. So for those of you that are here for the first time brief introduction to myself. After I graduated from university I joined a city PLC consulting firm, I left with some colleagues, went on to successfully co-found an exit consulting staff, focused on C-suite executive search for technology businesses. Having a front row seat to the dot com bubble witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the markets oftentimes quite literally overnight. I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day trading the S&P 500, one more appropriately day gambling. After some early beginners luck I racked up some pretty solid games, however, as is often the case my beginners luck run out. The market phase changed, I began to average down, giving back all my gains and ultimately experiencing a significant six figure hit to my capital. Say this was a gut wrenching and sobering experience is an understatement. I really had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track record. Working with my mentor for 18 months to two years, there was a period during which I up to not just my technical gain in terms of researching, developing extensively back and forward testing strategies that crucially suited my personality. All of these were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. But most importantly during the period of mentorship I significantly developed my mental game and probably most importantly I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal orientating individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process oriented. So what does that actually mean? Well, it means I had to stop focusing on what I could make from the markets and start focusing solely on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy. Oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process oriented and have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're simply playing the probabilities. You lose the emotional investments in that hellish emotional roller coaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades. I no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades or even a small string of trades. My focus on the next 100 trades because I know my focus on excellence in execution, my trading edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008. Since 2013 I've also been managing investor capital through a managed accounts service delivering annual positive returns. I'm currently responsible for managing multi million dollar portfolio. Since 2010 I've also mentored hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical medical skills to inconsistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring, I'm engaged in some other market orientated projects. I am a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to Tick Mill, providing an in-depth daily market outlook breaking down the fundamental and technical drivers for the day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setups for two or three markets per day. I also run Tick Mill's rapidly growing even in strategy group where I provide daily a specific trade plan for the US cash trading session with intraday upgrades. Since its inception, I've delivered over 900 points of upside. My other passion project is leading trader education for a premier trading education brand called fxcareerswap.com. We offer development and more importantly funding to retail trading talent. At fxcareerswap we don't just develop retail traders market and trading strategy knowledge, we work on mindset development through our structured program that culminates in managing the firm's capital at zero personal financial risk on a profit share basis. Most recently I've been involved in developing the trader blueprint strategy group which is a professional trading community where traders of all experience levels can access daily institutional insights from tier one investment bank trading desks and their market strategy teams. They're regular market bulletins within depth positioning and sentiment analysis actionable real time chart analysis with daily setups and trading updates from our expert traders. I also host live trader education sessions helping traders to develop a professional consistent approach to navigating the markets, and the most importantly the mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a pro. So that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from. I would suggest that with both these strategy groups we're actually offering free trials at the moment. I will put a link into the chat here. And if you're interested in taking advantage of the chart of advantage of trials, just simply request membership through the links I've posted, and, and you can see exactly what's going on there for for a two week period. So those are the links there. And without further ado, let's jump into the charts. So, obviously we have come into today with a bit of a risk of tone developing in the markets, we've seen a decent sell off, driven, principally by a few concerns that appear to be bubbling under the markets at the moment. Firstly, we had the FOMC minutes last night where the Fed have solidified this idea of tapering their asset purchase programs. So that's, that's an initial concern for the markets we then have the regulatory developments in China, and this, this idea about potentially moving towards a wealth redistribution program in China, which has split the capital markets around the world really. And then we have the underlying concerns regarding the efficacy and the Delta variant and how that's going to impact the economy going into the into the back end of this year, we had Toyota coming out overnight and suggesting that their capacity, their production capacity reduced by 40%, which is significant number. So these different dynamics have led to markets seeking to pair back risk. And so, let's look firstly at the S&P 500 here, and we traded up just shy of the target zone of 4500. And we have seen the market roll over now. We're back testing some pivotal support here is the monthly pivot at 43.54. Now, you could see buyers attempt to step back in here for just jump to the four hour chart. What I've done here is I've overlaid the previous sell-offs since the last major load that we saw in May last year. I've just highlighted the scope and scale of these sell-offs and overlaid it against our current current pie. And we can see that we have a few cluster here at 43.52, which represents some of the prior sell-offs. And that's pretty much where we stopped on a dime during the European session at the moment. And we're trying to stabilize here. If we can get a pullback going, what I would be looking for, I certainly be thinking about resistance coming in now at 44.26 area. And I think we could see another leg to the downside. But what I do notice well in terms of the structure of this price action is that we have a clearly visible three-wave pattern here. So if we do hold at current levels, and when the cash markets open in the US, if buyers, the dip crowd really come in and try and bid this up, technically we could have the structure in place to make new all-time highs. Now, is that certainly possible? Is it highly probable? We're looking at the current weight of selling that we're seeing in the markets. It's the higher probability scenarios that we're going to trade lower at this stage, but it's always worth bearing in mind the two facets in terms of the market where the bulls could be seeing opportunities or where the bears are seeing opportunities. We're holding this pivotal support, projected support, versus these prior to corrections here, and we've actually mapped this correction pretty much in time as well. So if we are going to make another run for the highs, or to print new highs, this would be an ideal location for that to happen. So in respect for the daily chart, well, it's like I say, we can't recapture the 4450, and I look for another leg to the downside to test monthly range support down to 42, 84, and then we have these prior highs here at 42, 64. The reversal patterns in this area, note that the way we get this trend line here is we overlay the trend line linking these two highs against the current low, and that gives us a projected trend line support, which is useful to keep an eye on, certainly where it coincides with the monthly range support as well. That's going to be a key area to pay attention to. So that's what we're looking at in terms of the S&P. At the moment it appears we've completed a fifth wave of the larger degree third wave coming out of the pandemic lows here being the one to there. And this would be our three four and then we'd be looking for a fifth wave extension into the back end of the year probably up towards that 4600 level. NASDAQ. We're also being weighed on obviously in terms of these tech stocks. Again, we're sitting right at the weekly S3 here. We also have the weekly range support. So, again, if we can hold the current levels there is the potential we could run up here and make a new high if that by the dip mentality is significant enough, but bounce probability at the moment would suggest that we were going to be looking for a potential meaningful double top in place here. So what's going to be key today in terms of these US sessions is really how we have had a day closings. If we get down into this support here, the monthly range support, then that would set up a nice opportunity for a relief rally heading into the back end of the week, and then setting up another leg to the downside to get that test of this prior resistance now to back to support back at the 14,000 level in terms of NASDAQ. Down. Also rolling over sitting again a potential trend line support here, if we can hold them in terms of the technical setter, we could still see another high but again bounce probability suggests that we're in for another leg to the downside and I'd be certainly thinking if we can break this trend line support, then getting a test initially looking for 33,798 as the as the next support level to watch on the downside. The DAX coming just shy of its resistance zone that we're looking for. Now again the DAX is coming into test and sit on its trend line support here. This trend line goes back to the pandemic lows there you can see. So really what we'd be looking for here to suggest that we have a meaningful top in place or certainly a tradeable top. We would be looking for the DAX to get a close below this trend line to set up a move down into this internal trend line support before setting up the next leg to the downside in terms of the DAX. Okay, this is the one that's basically the canary in the coal mine so to speak at the moment in so far as the Nikkei has a an equality objective open down here at 25,000, 110. We've taken out the trend line support talks about last week. So I'm looking for prices to extend down into this target zone. So when we get, if we test this area, and the buyer step back in, that's where I could see the overall equity market weakness come to a conclusion as the Nikkei is leading at this stage. So if we get down into this equality objective, and we see some decent bids come back into the market that could actually highlight a period during which the current corrections in terms of broader equity markets, certainly in the US, I just suggest that that's when this cycle is actually going to complete so keeping an eye on the Nikkei as a leading indicator at this point. I talked about this last week and over a number of weeks. I still think we should see at least a 30 test here in the mix and potentially the 35 level to match this prior cycle here before we get a release in terms of the volatility. And certainly if we see the Nikkei testing that quality objective with an elevated bids up here that would be a nice setup in terms of calling an end to the equity market corrections. Dollar index. I mean, just shy of the equality objective that we're waiting for 93 73. We're sitting at prior resistance here and we're seeing a bit of profit taking come in, turning back to 93 40. Whilst we hold this support channel here. I'm looking for this 93 73 and potentially yearly pivot there 94 13 and that's going to be a key inflection point again for these markets. Because if sellers step back in here, and we can take out this trend channel support, then we can start to think about the potential for a way before hiding in place. And then we can see the next leg of downside for the dollar index the alternative scenario would be that we don't find any sellers here, and we've actually got a much more meaningful low in place for the dollar index. So we take it up into this 95 30 area, we get a pullback from there but all that would basically do and be setting up an inverse head and shoulder scenario for a much more meaningful corrective phase in the dollar index. Now, if, as we're currently led to believe from the market narrative that you know the Fed are looking at tapering and, you know, potentially going to start talking about rates. And that's the type of dynamic that would drive this pattern, but at the moment, we really need to we're waiting to hear from the Fed chair, Jackson polls symposium next week. At the moment the balance of probabilities is that we trade into this area, and we find supply in the market and certainly we can look for a retest here of this pitchfork support area back down to 91 78 as the as the first area of interest for the dollar index by just, it's worth being cognizant of the two scenarios here that we could be facing, we could be talking about a much more meaningful lobing in place for the dollar with this being the left shoulder here, a double bottom head, and then a potential right shoulder forming over here, but to get to get the an initial sense that that's going to be the pattern that's going to play out, we want to see this, we want to see the dollar in dollar index take out this resistance so we're going to trade up into that supply area before testing the quality of the pullback and whether or not by using the step back in there so we are coming into pivotal areas and with a bunch of these majors. We've got the dollar index there. We've got the euro dollar also just just shy here of its equality objective at the 116 28 so this is versus this big swing structure here. If we have, if we have the inverse head and shoulders playing out in the dollar index, and that means we have a head and shoulders scenario developing in the euro so the preferred scenario at this stage is that we hit this equality objective and buy a step back in and we are off to the side again in terms of the euro, completing a major correction versus this full cycle going all the way back here. So this extension off the lows, the March lows, 12345 and then an ABC and then we look for the next one. However, if for whatever reason, this pattern doesn't materialize and we do get a bounce of sorts, but we run into sellers at the 120 area, there is the potential that we have a head and shoulders top in place in the euro, and we could be trading a little bit lower. So these are just some key, key areas that really want to pay attention to as as we head into the business end of the year now in the fourth quarter. So first point of interest is going to be how we trade at this one 1638 and I'd certainly be looking for bullish reversal patterns to get it on the long side there. The initial objective for the long trade would be a move back into this potential pitchfork resistance and coming in at just below 119 so keeping an eye very closely on how we trade at this, at this area, and then it'll be about taking a process through and seeing how market responds if we can get back up into 120. Sterling, just run through some of these majors so Sterling, looking for an inverse head and shoulders scenario continuation patterns involved here, didn't get it but we are trading now back into the support zone of 13680. So if we can find some support here then I think we can get another look at the 13880 handle, but importantly if we don't find support here then we have to think about the potential that Sterling is going to trade out a bigger corrective pattern here versus this swing structure. Then targeting a move down to 133 as the equality objective. So if Sterling cannot find support here, I would anticipate we take out this prior support at 13570 and then we decide to think about 133 on the downside for Sterling. As we know already exceeded its equality objective and part of the reason that has driven the Aussie lower is that we've had a stronger Kiwi and the Kiwi is only just about to test its equality objective now so we have Kiwi sitting just shy of its, oh it's pit or two below it now so a couple of scenarios here with Kiwi if we can get, if the Aussie market stabilise and buy a step back in, then this could be a meaningful low in the Kiwi and we could be trading back up into the top side of this channel. But if we get a bounce here and it's a weak bounce that finds resistance back at this trend line, then we could be looking for another leg low in the Kiwi, which would see the Kiwi down trading at its yearly pivot. And that would drive the Aussie lower to test its yearly pivot back down into the support here area just below the 70 handle. So it's going to be really key to see how the Kiwi responds at its equality objective here to see if buy a step back in. And then the key test is going to be can we reclaim this trend line support coming in at the 6940 area. A couple of others that we're watching the moment. Let's take a look at the gold. So gold at its resistance area I had a short position running in this yesterday, but it's popped back a bit here on risk aversion obviously. So I'm out of that. I'm going to keep an eye on gold if we get a bearish reversal pattern on the daily timeframe. So it's going to be potential for for another neg downside certainly to retest this 1677 area would be the one that I would be paying most attention to. And if we take a look at the cruise, who is it coming into its equality objective here at 6255. Now, I've been watching very closely because if we can get some bullish reversal patterns going here in crew, then there is a set up there that actually takes us up into $80 to test to make a completion of this initial cycle, a five wave sequence into $80. However, if we don't find support at the 6250, then again, similar patterns playing out around the market. We then start to thinking about a head and shoulders top here for crews and a much more meaningful corrective move. So it's going to be key to see how we trade at the 6250 handle for crude Bitcoin. So pulling back to the trend line support here, watching for bullish reversal patterns set up a move to test the 50 level ether. Looking for a pullback here into the 2872 to set long positions targeting the 3521 as an excellent on the upside. The Euro Swiss is also sitting at its equality objective. This 107 handle and you can see that we are seeing potential to find some support here so watching for bullish reversal patterns there and I think we can get stuff to think about a three wave corrective move playing out in the Euro Swiss, taking us back into the underside of that major trend line support to potentially out there as resistance. Popping higher here, but I'm still looking for Euro sterling to ultimately test the 84 handle before we see a more meaningful correction certainly while we trade below the 8640 pressure I think is on to the downside. Sterling Aussie sitting at resistance here I'm watching for bearish reversal patterns and I think what we can look to play for will be a symmetry swing move. So whilst we hold this 9124 the 161 extension of this leg here bearish reversal patterns, I think it gets back down into the trend line support. Ideally in a three wave corrective move so something like this before we look to extend the game to the upside. Notice we've got some nice momentum divergence into this potential entry in fifth wave higher here so then close attention to that one sterling and I had 250 pips of profit in this one that we talked about last week. Looking for it now to test support and then I'll look to see if we get bullish reversal patterns there, then that could give us an opportunity on the long side to play for new highs in sterling and sterling Swiss also traded this one as per the setup we discussed last week and again to another 200 pips out of this I'm now looking for services to test it's a quality objective. So we have a WXY pattern 2370 bullish reversal patterns will be an opportunity on the long side, ultimately in sterling Swiss sterling Kiwi. We looked for the test of the trend line came just shy of it and then took off, but once we hold this trend line support, we look for 20452 on the upside for sterling Kiwi. And the last one I'm really keeping an eye on here at the moment is this Swiss Yen. And I'll just zoom out here and you can see the pattern. I'm looking to test this trend line support and reversal patterns set long positions. So I'd like to see if we test the trend line support take out this one 2015, and then I think that gives us a couple of hundred pips on the upside. You can see the similarities here in terms of the price action in this prior phase versus what we're doing at the moment. So key to see how we trade at this trend line, and if we can get that that bullish reversal, then I'm going to be looking to be on the long side. So those are those are a bunch of the charts that I'm looking at the moment. So we're heading into the very low participation period now as peak holiday season is here I've been warning about this over the previous weeks. And I think what we'll see a pivot into post Jackson Hole, that we will start to see these markets really shape up again and provide what I hope will be a nice volatile September October period, where we can really ramp up the trading action. I, I'm off next week there won't be a trading analysis session next week. So the next one that's going to be the next one I'm going to be doing is going to be the second of September, I believe. Thursday, the second of September will be the next live analysis session for for me. So I'll just open up some Q&A here. I can see I've got a question for you. Ruth, please which pivot table did you select is it standard because when I try trading view. So yeah it's just a standard one, Ruth just a standard pivot one. Yeah, this will be published to YouTube and right. Are these every week. Yes, they are every week. Like I said, next week there won't be one examine vocation, but starting from the second of September, they're every Thursday at the same time, and these are run every week. Any other questions. Okay, if there aren't any other questions, I'm going to wrap this one up here and I will catch you all the first week of September, and keep an eye close eye on the executive markets today and where we close it's going to be pivotal or driving the price action as we head into into next week and the week after. As I was trying to find the trade trade the plan, most importantly, manage your risk until next time. Thanks very much.