 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com weekend update show. Hope everybody is doing well. Hope everybody has great start to the weekend. Hopefully everybody had a good trading week. So here's the headlines, right? The Dow Jones industrial average is usually not something that I would lead off with, but it was significant. So we're going to talk about it. So the Dow closes the lowest level of 2022, right? And again, I think majority of people when they talk about the stock market, at least from the mainstream point of view, they talk about the stock market as the Dow Jones industrial is. We don't, right? I don't think any trader will look at 30 stocks and say, well, this is the sum of the, you know, this is the whole part of the market. It's only 30 stocks, right? When you look at the S&P 500, you look at the Nasdaq 100, and you look at the Russell, you'll get a pretty much more macro picture of what's going on. But the fact that oil prices are plunging, that's why I've seen a lot of the oil names getting smacked today. We are getting right back to the area where we all kind of started from. The recession fears have come back. Well, when the hell will they leave, right? As far as I understand, they never left. So is that an important thing? Look, it's not a great thing for the bulls, right? I don't think it's a wonderful thing to talk about over the weekend. Hey, how great it is to be at 2022 lows, but it's not the end of the world yet, right? When you look at the Nasdaq 100 or at least the Qs, we're not that far off. We're a little bit of ways. We're still about six points away from the 22 lows. And when you look at the spies or the S&P 500, we are, let's see here, the lows were the June lows were 362. We're at 367. So we're five points away. So the market is not great for the longer term trader, for the investor, for anybody who speculates in any speculation asset class that definitely includes the equities market that definitely includes the crypto market, the Bitcoin space and everything else in between. And now that we are going into kind of a fall, right? Going into the kind of the fourth quarter towards the end of the year, investors and traders are trying to figure out what's next. And I think, and I've been saying this for a very, very long time. It's very, very tough to try to predict the market, right? I've never been one to have an opinion of what's going to happen more than a 24 hour period at a time. Because again, there's so many things that you have to take into consideration. This is a headline driven market. As we saw this week, the Fed was all over the place, right? You had the interest rate statement on Wednesday and apparently Powell gets paid by the word. Something dramatically had a change from Wednesday's economy to today. So he spoke again. So I really get the feeling that he's getting paid by the word. So we're in a bubble of Fed. We're in a bubble of all these different headlines. Russia is still out there. COVID is making a little bit of an appearance, depending where you live. It's kind of a little bit of a spike going through the fall season. And the stock market is just not behaving. Matter of fact, if you look at the Qs, and we've been kind of talking about this for a while now, again, below the 50 day is bad, above the 50 day. And we were here above the 50 day is good. And that's kind of the most basic element of being a trader. And what really stood out this week was the orderly aggression, for the exception of Wednesday, that was that violent day with the Fed. The orderly aggression continued to be to the downside. And that's kind of where we try to position every single day. If you watch the videos every single day, again, I'm speaking from a non biased point of view. Again, for me, it doesn't make a difference which way the market is being traded. As long as there is a trade, as long as there is a theme and as long as there is a trend, that's the most important part. And what we saw today to kind of finish off the week, the Qs closed, well, the Qs, the Nasdaq 100, closed down 5%. That's back to back weeks. So you're talking about a 10% decline in the Nasdaq 100 just in the last two weeks. It's not really a good thing. So how do you position this thing if you're an investor? Well, the first thing, again, it's not one of those things going back in time to kind of fix things. But again, you could have. That's the most important. You could have been prepared for this. Any single time you drift below the 50-day moving average, and I talk to traders all the time, they finally started to kind of get their house in order, not to get any surprises, because it is that significant. So if anybody who tells you technical analysis is not important, well, it is important. It was important. It continues to be important. It kind of puts you in a situation that you don't have to guess. Again, I am probably the worst guesser of all time. I have no idea where the market's going to be the next day, the day after that, three weeks from now. I don't know. We're not paid to guess. We're paid to collect data. That's exactly what we did. And when you look at a 10% decline in the Nasdaq 100 over the two weeks, even the most aggressive bear can turn around and go, ah, that's a little bit too much, too fast, 10% in two weeks, at some point the market has to rally. And they're not wrong, right? They're absolutely not wrong. And if you are a bull and you're just randomly picking bottoms, you're hoping for that sequence to happen. But here's kind of where we are going into next week. I don't think anything fundamentally is going to change, meaning that the Fed is not going to come out over the weekend and give you some sort of white night approach that everything is going to be okay. I don't think there's going to be a headline over the weekend that, hey, things are getting worse. You know, we're probably pretty much in a crappy area to begin with. So I don't think it's going to be a news driven kind of a scenario to start off the week. What I do believe is going to put in a situation Monday or Tuesday that I do believe there's going to be some sort of washout. If we were only down like 3%, 4% going into next week, I'd be like, listen, there's no reason for the market should ever rally. I'm obviously joking. But the point is, you know, when you have a 10% move in two weeks, there should be some sort of relief rally, right? And the only way a relief rally comes is in the way of, and again, if you've been watching this broadcast for a long time, especially during the bear market cycle, you kind of know you need a washout, right? I don't want to use the word capitulation. Nobody's capitulating, right? You know, most day traders not capitulating. Most investors, you know, if you're in the stock market for 5, 10 year horizon, you're not capitulating, but there's certain people are. I don't think we're at the capitulation stage yet, because again, I don't think we're at the lows here, at least for the Nasdaq 100 and for the spies, for the Dalles. So if there is going to be some sort of relief, I don't use the word rally, because we're far from a rally, right? I think we have to change that word. But if there's going to be any type of scenario that the market at least shakes off some lows, right? Especially a 10% decline in two weeks, it's going to be a scenario with aggressive overnight futures at the lows, right? For us to rally Monday or Tuesday, the last thing the bulls want to do, and I say this every single time, because this is reality, the last thing the bulls want to do is have a gap-up, okay? Because that gap-up will get stuffed 99% out of 100 times, and we've seen that over and over and over again, right? Stocks are going to be trapped into supply. They're going to roll over and then they start taking down the previous day's ranges. That's exactly what we saw the last couple of days that we saw even today on opening range lows. So you don't want to be a buyer into strength. What you want to see, especially as a trader, I don't want to talk from the investment point of view. If we are going to have a reversal any time this week, Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, whatever it is, right? We're going to need the Dow to open down 500, 600 points, the Nasdaq to open down 300 points. If there is some sort of scenario of, hey, throw the baby out with the bathwater. I don't want to be in the stock market. I don't want to be invested. The market's going to zero. The market's not going to zero. I want to be out of this market. I want to sell all my stocks at once and get the hell out of Dutch, right? If that is the scenario, then yes. I do believe we will probably get a situation that if we do gap down 500, 600 points on the Dow, 200, 300 points on the Nasdaq, at some point during that day, if there's going to be reversal, well, hell, that is the perfect example of reversal. And then you don't have to think, right? You don't have to look at charts. You don't have to look at anything. Anything that goes right to green after a washout, throw the baby out with the bathwater scenario, just buy it, right? Just buy it. What are you thinking about? Right? There are certain times you have to be very methodically. You have to be very, very organized. But not when you have a capitulation, capitulation move at the open and everything is reversing. You're literally closing your eyes, hoping for the best. And hopefully the market will have one of those days that they're up 3%, 4%, 5%. That's kind of what it is. Is that mean? Is that the bottom? No, it doesn't mean that's the bottom. It just means that bear cycles have very, very aggressive rallies at some point of the day. Again, all you need to do is just look at after this selling, right? We have three, four days of buying. There's always upside, right? There's always some upside, especially in this new market that no matter how bad the market gets, they're always going to give you some quote, unquote washout reversals that last for two, three, maybe even four days. And that's kind of the plan. So that's kind of what I want to see going into Monday's session. So if you see the futures down Sunday night, 500 handles, they'll probably be the bull's best bet for a reversal the next day. And if that could happen, hey, maybe we could get a two, three, four day tradeable rally. We'll see. But the last thing again, the last thing you want to do if you're a bull is see those futures green overnight at the cash open and spill over into the next day. Because again, what's going to happen is again, like I said a couple of minutes ago, things will get, right? Things will get stuff that supply and they're going to roll over and start taking out the previous days. So that's kind of what it is. You're seeing a lot of stocks also down two, three, four weeks. And this is kind of where I'm starting to kind of gather my opinion about this. You're seeing so many names that it's so far down off their 50 day moving average. Look at Microsoft. Microsoft took out the 50 day moving average on August the 26th. This is a month ago. Look at the destruction of this thing. Right. Look at the destruction, for example, on Google, right? Google, again, look at Google. You know, you're talking about from 113, from 113 to 14, 15% moving Google in about, you know, about a month. It's a lot, right? Amazon as well. I mean, you could go down the road, but you could see that the destruction and prices just off the last several weeks. And the most important part is, and this is kind of where I reiterate this point, especially in the webinar, that when you're taking a pivot, whether it's long or short, you want to make sure it is super, super tight to the range. Because the further it goes away from the pivot, right? The further it goes. So for example, if a stock breaks down, if the stock loses the 50 day moving average at 126, the pivot is 126. It's not 118. It's not 114. It's not 116. Right? It's at 126. If you miss the pivot, you miss the pivot. But the further you go away from the pivot, the higher probability you're going to have a chance that it reverses on you. So price does matter. Entry does matter. And we're starting to see a lot of stocks, right? Really, really a lot of stocks super away from their pivot. And that's a very, very important point. Plus you add to the point that, hey, you know, we have a scenario of we were down 10% in two weeks. So I do think there is going to be some sort of dead cat bounce this week. If not, I don't know what the hell to tell you, perma-bulls, right? I don't know what to tell you guys. We don't get some sort of relief rally. I don't know what to tell you guys. We're going to go lower. But more important part is guys, be prepared for it, right? Especially for the active traders, be prepared for it. There's absolutely no reason to think that if we get a week open, the last thing you want to do is keep shorting into the hole, shorting to the hole. And if you are part of the webinar or an old school trader, you kind of know what the word shorting into the hole means. It's a no-no, right? So we don't want to shorten the hole. We do not want to shorten the weakness. Our value plays continue to be if the market opens up, reversal, previous range lows, and the one aspect of it for potential reversal. Again, like I talked about a couple of minutes ago, we are looking for that washout, red to green, and everything goes green at the same time. So going into next week, I am very aware for potential reversal back to the upside. So I don't want to get too aggressive, especially on Monday. You kind of want to let the noise die out a little bit and see how it goes. So really aggressive week. If we've been watching the market, if you've been watching this broadcast, right? For the last three, four days, it's been so biased. We've been talking about channel after channel after channel. We talked about Tesla and the Vidia and Apple and NET and all these stocks. And again, these stocks are taking down channels and they start continuing to flow right after the previous day's channel. And it turned out to be a pretty solid week. If you trade both sides of the market, you kind of do appreciate how both sides work. Again, I think if you're an active trader or an aspiring active trader, again, I've been saying this for years. You really need to trade both sides of the market. You can't fall in love with a stock. You can't fall in love with a side. You have to be optimistic that both sides of the market does work, that gravity is real. And there's many times that the market is going to put you in a situation that you feel helpless. And this is why it's so important to trade both sides of the market so you don't feel helpless. You have an understanding that stocks do go up, stocks do go down. And sometimes they go down a little bit more aggressively than you'd hoped for. And this is why it's super important to kind of get it, right? And God gave you two hands, two eyes, two ears, right? Trade both sides of the market. So let's talk about today a very, very aggressive Friday. Tesla continues to be just phenomenal. You had a big run up this week on Tesla, and then they started losing channels. Yesterday, it lost at 299 level, right? It started to crash down. Today, here's your pivot, right? 250, 280, 50 is rising daily support. If it builds below, it can flush. Here is Tesla, great move. I mean, it's just been a great trader long and short. Just a phenomenal, phenomenal trader. So here was the 280, 50 area here. It lost it. It went straight down all the way down to the 272 level. You got a lot of put buying, a lot of put buying today to kind of end the week. Didn't really see, this is kind of why I still think that there could be a reversal at some point next week. You really didn't see going into next week. You really didn't see like 265, 250 puts. And normally if a stock market continues to go in one direction, you would have a lot of institutional money flow anticipation of a bigger move. But you can see here, you had a move here from 314 to 272 in three days. Again, everything needs a little bit of a breather. So that's kind of the thinking going into next week. Hopefully, we'll get a little bit of a relief rally. Airbnb, Thursday got murdered, 112, 36. If it builds below, it can flush. It went all the way down to $100.70. It lost that $100.70 traded down to 99 and change. On the video, there was a sneaky pivot around that 124 level. Didn't quite get down to the 122. Apple, 150, 80s if it builds below can flush. Here was Apple, right? Here was Apple, right? So it took down that 150, 80s level went all the way down to 148, 50s. And again, look how it just stopped right above the channel's low. So it's going to be very, very interesting to put in a baby little hammer just like the way the NASDAQ did, just like the way the S&P 500 did. This is kind of what we continue to talk about. NET, 56 builds below. It can flush. It was NET. Took out the 56, went all the way down to 53. Nice move there. Let's see what else. Chewy, 31, 20 if it builds below can flush. Not a big move on Chewy. Here was Chewy, 31, 20 if it builds below can flush. Went down to 30, only like a dollar move. But again, you can see the bounce here, putting in a hammer. Again, kind of shows you, I think there's a shot that we get a reversal. In the video here as we talk about 124, went down to like 122 and change. And that's it. That's it. So that's it, guys. So closing off the week, nothing really to complain about. If you're in the webinar, you kind of know the importance of technical analysis. It has nothing to do with me. I am a loser. I'm an idiot. I'm a moron. It's constant. Except for that, the technical analysis works. And that's the same driving force that you're going to have the common denominator in a bull and a bear market. Guys, God bless everybody. Stay healthy. Stay happy. And most important thing is stay in business. God bless, guys. I'll see you all the next week.