 Welcome traders to another Tick Mill weekly market outlook for week commencing the 7th of February with me Patrick Munley. It seems that central bankers around the globe are all curiously coalescing around March as a potential date for rate hikes. There were plenty ahead of the main ones as many emerging market central banks and some developed market central banks like the RBNZ and the Norse Bank have already raised rates. The Fed's pivot that began really at the December FOMC and gathered steam as Chair Powell's confirmation testimony last month was perhaps the driving force that cleared the way for the others as the Fed has strongly guided its intention to hike in March. The BOE has hiked twice since the Fed's December FOMC and ECB's Lagarde is certainly making a pivot now that she probably could be brought into forward guidance and subsequent rate hikes plans at its March meeting and the Bank of Canada who passed in January but will rush into the Fed's waiting arms in March it's perceived and the RBA will probably again codify reference to willingness to follow them all again after stating that the other central banks actions would influence it's now done deal-to-end bond purchases programs. The ripple effects of the Fed moves will continue to reverberate through markets for the coming week. So turning to the data for this week starting with the U.S. Tuesday December consumer credit robust demand for credit as pandemic savings are worked down continues we also get January NFIB small business optimism looking for a print there of 97.4 confidence hampered by the Omnicron disruptions probably we also get December trade balance looking for negative 83 million US dollars the deficit to remain wide on demand and inventory rebuilds then on Wednesday we get December wholesale inventories looking for a 2% print there final estimate supply chain issues should be worked through is the consensus view and then on Thursday the all important January CPI looking for a 0.5% print price pressures to hold annual inflation near 40 year highs we also get initial jobless claims to ruin very low levels and we get some Fed speak out of Bowman and Mester and then we round up the week on Friday in the U.S. with February University of Michigan sentiment looking for a 67.5 print inflation and Omnicron concerns again probably dented confidence. So from a technical perspective the dollar index is reaching some pretty pivotal levels here I'm watching the test now of the 9480 ascending trend line support pitchfork support using the swing structure here if we get bullish reversal patterns there I've been looking to engage on the long side looking for this final leg to complete into the 98, 98, 20 area into that March FOMC rate hike so that would be by the rumors sell sell the fact type set up there but if we take out the trend line on a closing basis then I'm going to be looking for a quick test of the yearly pivot and projected descending trend line support coming in 9380 we have an equality objective at 93 58 the equality is this swing here overlaid from our current swing highs and then if we find if we get a bounce from there watching for the retest of the trend line from below and if sellers step in there it could be that we've seen a meaningful top in the dollar and then we'd be looking for a move down into the 9230 so really going to be key to see how the dollar responds at this ascending trend line support heading over to the eurozone in terms of data Monday we get February syntax investor confidence looking for a 15.4 print versus the last 14.9 sentiment remains upbeat in the eurozone despite the Omicron disruptions and then in terms of further data we get Germany December trade balance on Wednesday positive outlook for 2022 as the global recovery continues and then that we round out the data in terms of eurozone with German CPI on Friday final estimate energy inflation remains a key driver for that that print so in terms of the euro dollar obviously with Lagarde making her pivot this week we saw a decent pop we've taken out that trend line again on a closing basis i'm looking for any three-way corrected moves back into the 113 area to to see if we can get buyers stepping in watching for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side looking for a test of the yearly pivot up to 116.36 and the symmetry swing resistance coming in at 116.65 that's versus this last meaningful leg to the upside that we saw over Lake versus our current swing lows so just watching to see how we respond at these these prior highs here this 114.89 114.191.15 and if we get a three-way corrective move we'll look to engage on the long side in terms of Japan very light week in terms of the calendar for the week ahead we get on Tuesday December household spending expected to be flat ends up demand to support spending but we uh real wages are the real risk there we also get the December current account balance looking for an 89 print weak external demand is set to narrow the surplus over in Japan and from a technical perspective the dollar yen is trading at resistance here this 150 and 52 area as as that is continued to be defended by the bears we look for a move back through the trend line support at 114 to test the major trend line support which now comes in at the just below the 113 handle watch for bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side and we have a quality objective versus this big swing structure here to 117.80 this stage it would take a loss of the trend line support on a closing basis to reassess the bullish view in terms of the dollar yen over to sterling and the UK in terms of data what we have coming up it's pretty light calendar week for for the UK to be honest a lot of focus obviously on the political situation in the UK with respect to Prime Minister Boris Johnson's difficult position that he's finding himself in with cabinet members resigning etc what we're looking for now sorry not cabinet members members of his team in Downs Street resigning we haven't had any cabinet ministers resigning yet in terms of data it's really going to be focused on Friday where we get the fourth quarter GDP 1.1 percent print last out growth should remain robust but Omnichrome obviously the downside risk we also get December trade balance in the UK looking for a print above 626 billion COVID-19 and brexit continue to create trade instability in the UK from a technical perspective sterling is somewhat betwixt in between here we have taken out the descending trend line resistance so which is a bullish signal and what I'm looking for now is how we correct against Friday's key reversal if we can hold the trend line support coming in 134.30s we watch the bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side targeting a 138.50 test if we fail the trend line and we get a close lower on a daily basis then we will be looking to engage on the short side targeting that quality objective down to 130 versus this swing structure here last but not least we take a look at Australian data on Monday we get a fourth quarter retail sales looking for an 8.1 percent print there reopening boom and nominal sales already reported at 8.7 percent last quarter and then on Tuesday we get January NAB business survey conditions are improving in second half of January after the Omnichrome hit so we're looking for positive print there we also get on Wednesday Fed Westpac MAI consumer sentiment better virus news but shifting view on interest rates are likely to impact that consumer sentiment in Australia and we ran out the week in Australia on Thursday with February MI inflation expectations last out 4.4 percent peak tax 5.1 percent in November so we'll see how that develops in in January technical perspective with respect to the Aussie dollar whilst we hold resistance at 7170 bearish bearish candle print on on Friday as we potentially correct against that and hold pivot as resistance I'm looking for an extension down to test descending trendline support to the 6870s we have an equality objective versus the swing structure here down to 6832 this stage we really need to see a close back through descending trendline resistance here 7230s on a closing basis to encourage the view that we could test higher and look for a move up to look for offers and stops above the 74 hang on for now the focus seems to be on the downside and looking for this trendline test and that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 7th of February as always traders plan the trade trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk until next time thanks very much