 Joe's the chief market strategist with the Bank of America in New York and Most importantly from the point of view of his knowledge of Ireland He has been the American chambers. He does the American chambers annual reports on the Irish US economic relationship, and he's been doing it since 2011 and as we all know when Amcham speaks people listen here, so it's a rather important document that attracts Considerable attention here when it appears He's transatlantic fellow at both the German Marshal fund of the US in Washington DC and its center for transatlantic relations at the Paul H. Knitz the school of advanced international studies at Johns Hopkins University in Washington he has a photo I think in in In Wall Street, and he has a photo in Is it I street or wherever they have gotten the street the thing tanks are on and you can watch and K Street So he lives in Philadelphia. I think which gets him nicely between the two I'd like to welcome him with the name Quinlan, of course It's obviously has an Irish-American background and has indeed been named among the top 50 most influential Irish-Americans on Wall Street No doubt by now. No doubt, but I guess these things right and I'd like to welcome you Joe and we look forward to hearing from me and to asking you some questions It's fascinating talking about the fact that Most of the eurozone is actually growing faster than the United States, and it's fascinating It just come back from India and see all the good things they're doing with technology and of course having spent a lot of time in China I'm very optimistic near-term about China But you know I was putting my notes together and I really I've been a global economist on Wall Street for quite some time, but it was really 20 years ago Next month that kind of struck me and led me down this path Towards more transatlantic research. It was in July 1997. We had the financial crisis in Asia And there's every maybe some of you don't remember that I get that but nevertheless Prior to that was a Wall Street economist, you know before the financial Asian financial crisis It was all about the emerging markets the rise of India and China And I remember at the time post the financial crisis in Asia I wrote a piece and wrote some books and papers and articles and Kind of redirected the conversation around the transatlantic economy I didn't spend I'd spent a plenty of time in Europe before the crisis had looked a lot of US trade investment But when I dug into the numbers in 98 99 with Dan Hamilton my great colleague at the Center for Transatlantic Relations In Washington, it was clear that the global economy Despite the NICs the newly industrialized countries and so forth that really the shoulders of global economy still rested on the United States in Europe And really nothing has changed in the last 20 years. I come out with the transatlantic survey Every year we look at the numbers. We look at investment. We look at trade Capital flows digital flows now more and more and at the end of the day It's still we're kind of the adults the United States in the European Union I'm gonna use Europe and a broad-term European Union in terms of what's the driving growth and if you look at GDP Mergers in acquisition trade services the world is still dependent upon the United States and Europe and the architect We created right? I mean there's in the last 70 years or so. There's been no greater period of prosperity for everyone rich or poor urban rural whatever in the whole world in the last 70 years And I kind of remind my clients of that then ones that are very down They're not happy and they think the world's coming to an end We're living through the greatest period of you know modern economic prosperity ever in the history of mankind and it continues And so if we have the emerging markets, you know coming into play integrating China and India Africa South America, that's a good thing. You know, I get it on a relative basis The United States and European Union of course their share of GDP is going to decline since 1997 a number of last couple of decades as our share of trade right their mergers and acquisition or capital flows That's just arithmetically. That's what's gonna happen. You know, we're bigger and others and other other countries are growing faster So to me it's been a very good backdrop for US corporations in Partnering partnering with the European Union But what I have seen particularly in the last say five or six years and had long debates with Dan Hamilton My colleague back in Washington is that I kind of frame it this way. We seem to be fumbling history Right. We're fumbling history. We being the United States and European Union because a we don't really appreciate the relationship We've created and we don't understand how deep and how thick it is, right? It's not about trade It's about foreign direct investment and that's what I learned that in the Asian financial crisis because remember even Bill Clinton President said like this is a huge calamity. This is a big deal because Asia is our number one trading partner That was true then but what the president and his advisors didn't realize it wasn't about trade It's more about foreign direct investments foreign affiliates foreign affiliate sales and the growth that comes off that So at the end of the day in the media still there's still not recognition How great and how deep this relationship is and more so more importantly be there's no really Appreciation for the jobs that are created for instance in Ireland or how Irish companies are creating jobs in the United States And how transatlantically how much commerce is done annually that helps promote growth In North Carolina in or in France or in Germany. So to me, there's not a recognition In terms of the great power of this relationship and where we go from here. So and you know, that's to me That's kind of where we need to be going and taking the conversation and I kind of like want to make this more interactive But we're at this cusp of globalization or de-globalization There's anyone in this room think that de-globalization is possible No one think that is Possible I think it's very possible right okay one at least okay good Because I think that's a complacency. I asked this question of hedge funds Policy makers and there's this complacency like we'll just continue down this path that we'll have this partnership And we see it in the markets. We see it in financial flows I see it when I go to Brussels that the status quo will somehow be maintained It'll be all it'll be okay in the end and I'm not so sure and that's why I got kind of the end of the West question mark Because when I say the end of the West, I'm really you know worried about us fumbling history that the United States Not necessarily turning his back on the rest of the world, but definitely becoming more Self-procured becoming more isolated really not looking outward looking more inward And I think Europe has been part of that already down been down that path And when I said earlier we don't understand how deep and how thick this relationship is and we're doing very poor messaging on the Benefits and then number three when it relates to this overall backdrop We're not recognizing that when it comes to the emerging powers whether it's China in particular India Russia Brazil South Africa They're not ready to drive the global economy, right? They're not gonna. I'm not gonna call them free riders You know, I'm not gonna call them You know people that kind of just along for the ride not doing their part, but they're not stakeholders, right? Remember Bob Zellick said this a long time ago about China like be a stakeholder now China is for China so to speak and that makes sense because they've got 1.2 billion people They have to count for and they still have a lot of incoming quality. I've got a lot of impoverished people still So the United States and the European Union have done a fabulous job in the last 70 years creating an architect globally That's pulled everyone forward not just the United States and Europeans But everyone and there's really no partnership out there or a single country that can do that And so that's kind of like the overall arching theme today The end of the West is the West could come to an end in terms of dominance Because it's willingness to hand off the baton to players that are not global in mind But more pro-kill or regional so I see that as a big issue and not being addressed That's not really being discussed that you know when it comes to China sure they're big They're large, but they're still not there to carry the day India huge large But still poor on a per capita basis Russia clearly more about its own interests than say the global commons So when you step back, I do think here and now I'll talk about Washington in a moment where I think what we're going But even in Europe that really since 2001 2002 it kind of an indifference, right? Man, I've said this a couple times. It's kind of like a it's like a marriage gone bad between the United States and Europe And they're still married. There's no divorce company But we just take each other for granted that we're gonna wake up every day and be there and maybe some day That's gonna change and we saw that clearly last year with Brexit, right? We've kind of here again that complacency the status quo will work it through and that was kind of a jarring shock to the system That yes, the status quo can be taken out from underneath us and you've got a different playing field So in Washington here now, I've just kind of my messaging for you today You know, we have an administration to put it mildly that's different Right sees the world differently America first that doesn't mean the end of globalization that doesn't mean we're gonna turn inward, but there's clearly an Emphasis that's coming from the general public by the way, not just this Trump administration about looking out for the US interests first in the world second and that's a different tone and Really against that leaning against that are US companies, right? The administration may be talking about Doing it alone America first bringing the jobs home Walking away from the Paris Accord agreement and so forth But US companies are still very much multinational still very much globalized even states and a good example I think of where we are is post the Paris climate Accord Agreement that we the United States walked away from is very telling that a lot of US companies stepped up and said hey We're still in favor of this agreement We're gonna work together with the rest of the world to make it happen And then you had governors like Jerry Brown of California step up New York State So I bring that message to you in the sense that maybe the US from Washington perspective sees the world differently It's gonna tread some different water here But the main players the multinationals the states that matter where a lot of you know Irish companies are invested in and vice versa That's gonna continue So I don't see the end of globalization, but there's a testing time period here And I do think when it comes to the post crisis recovery here in the United States We're well on our way to one of longest economic expansions in US history That we still have a lot of people to take care of then it don't feel that they're getting their fair share We have a lot of women not participating or males in the prime Labor ages not participating as well. So there's a lot of work to be done But nevertheless when you kind of step back, I'm not giving up on the transatlantic economy It's still the broadest shoulders the world rests upon but there is an indifference right now That has to be managed very carefully and the good news is when you really look at the kind of the economic cycle The US is expanding by two two and a half percent this year and you now see the eurozone in the sickle Psychical recovery as well. Maybe you've got a German French Alliance being built Form that's gonna help drive more structural change in Europe that surprises us in terms on the upside You know more employment growth more innovation More growth that helps drive more trade investment M&A and so forth between the United States and Europe It would be I have to say from a US perspective It would be nice once in a while if the European Union drove the train instead of being in the back of the train Right and it is be clearly driving growth So anytime there's a backdrop by which the pie is expanding on both sides of the pond That's a favorable backdrop for policymakers to come together. I'm not giving up on that I mean t-tip. I've never believed in t-tip if anyone did raise your hand and we can talk afterwards because I think it was Just too ambitious too aggressive But there's parts of it we could build on and off that I think we will as we go deeper into the next couple years Particularly in data, you know the digital global economy, right? That's very much at play very much in the halfway of the development status So single digital market transatlantically could be a huge boost huge boost for both parties and the global economy When it comes to setting the standards, so I'm gonna just kind of finish I'm gonna give you back some time so we can have a conversation But do I believe at the end of the West? It depends on what day and what time I get up so to speak or where I get up But I do fairly clearly feel that if we're fast forward a hundred years from now historians will be writing about Hope not but they could be writing about how the United States in Europe the wealthy powerful Brand core companies eat great companies how they kind of fumbled the future by a not Recognizing what they have what they've created how much beneficial it is how it's driving growth I'm unwilling this to work together during difficult times and not realizing that the rest of the world is still very much Depended upon them that China and Russia. They're not ready to carry the global baton to drive growth They're not about the global commons are more about regionalism and their own self-interest So are we in a world of chaos some people say disarray or chaos? I don't think so. No, I mean words are stool still rules regulations Corporations are still doing what they do. They get up every morning. They produce goods and services You've got a great economy like Ireland still churning out growth creating a human capital Building the global bonds to bring us together. I don't think that's changing anytime soon Brexit is separate issue I think there's a big issue for the UK, but not for the global economy to be honest with you I mean Ireland, of course, it's important what happens, but for the global economy This will pass so to speak without much disruption the biggest challenge going forward particularly for the Trump administration Brussels Germany France Ireland UK is to recognize that we're a very small percentage of the world Right, but the rest of the world is still dependent upon us They still look upon our brand our policy making our multilateral institutions to drive growth It's still ours for the taking right? I mean I hate losing, but if I lose it's not because I fumbled the ball It's because I want the competition to be better, right? Well, the competition isn't better just now between the United States and Europe versus the rest of the world So that's kind of where we're at when it comes to the US as I said cyclical rebound Trump President Trump different Politician politician and quotes to be used because he doesn't like to be called a politician But you're seeing clearly clearly that there's checks and balances in Washington in the state houses State Attorney generals and so forth that will keep the US I think more into the center than most people realize to me I'm not worried about the Trump administration. It's just the indifference the complacency That's kind of enveloped the transatlantic Relationship over the last two or three four or five years that indifference is a Creates erosion and trust and confidence and I at some point further down the road We will realize this great thing we have fumbled called the transatlantic alliance