 Good evening ladies and gentlemen What do you get when you invite a professor to talk about the challenges and the facts of the world you get questions? I'm going to start by asking you three questions. This is the first one In the last 20 years the proportion of people living in extreme poverty has Extreme poverty means living on less than one twenty five dollars or more bluntly not having Secured food for the family all days What has happened with that? Proportion has it almost double has it remained more or less the same or has it almost half? Please answer. I've given you these devices and you press a b or c according to your knowledge Thank you. You're quite quick. The second is about health my own area. I'm professoring global health How many of the world's one-year-old children are Vaccinated against measles now. I have to tell you that measles is one of the best old established vaccines There are many new vaccines also coming now very promising But how many of these really life-saving vaccines? How many of the world children get it? Is it two in ten children? Is it five in ten children or is it eight in ten children? Counting the world as a whole please answer a b or c and now to my third question When I was born 1948 there were less than one billion children in the world and then the number of children kept Increasing in this pace and at the turn of the century that was almost two billion now the best demographers in the world United nation with people from the best universities they made a prediction for the world and That's one of these lines the other two. I just made up to make this question for you So what did the experts say did they say that the number of children will continue to increase more or less the same and Rage almost four billion by the end of this century. Did I say it will slow down? It will be perhaps three billions or do they say no the number of children have stopped increasing It will only be two billion by the end of the century a b or c Thank you very much. Thank you very much. So There we are Let's see now. Let's see now. What's the right answer? The poverty rate has has indeed half There's an uncertainty in these measurements What's clear is that the proportion in absolute poverty has decreased the numbers may not have increased as impressively as the population Have grown but let's see what the world economic forum audience answer on this question. You know, what did you answer? 61% got it right. I Have done surveys with the Swedish population the US population and many other Nations and we are used the best web survey companies to get Representative samples and this is what the Swedes answered and this is what the United States answered So you are better than both these countries but it's it so that Swedes know more about the world than us Let's look at the next question It's about Vaccination and remember them that I am the professor of global health in Sweden So it's a little measuring me also this, you know, now the right answer here is Eight in ten actually 83% got me said the new vaccines is still lower that needs to be increased And of course everyone needs to get all the new vaccines But this is where we are and the world economic forum audience. What did you get it? Oh? Oh So it's the economic forum, you know more about money than about health So let's see the Swedes now. Whoa and Here the US you see I'm professor of global health in that Swedish country, you know, that's the problem Let's look at the next question The number of children here the right answer here is this The peak number of children born per year Estimated was last year. It may increase a little more more or less. It has leveled off It's decreasing in Asia and Europe and it's increasing in Africa. It's the same in the United in America's So let's see world economic forum you are oh 26 and Sweden 11 and 7 Now when I got these very depressing results I did decide I had to go to a wider audience and take groups Which perhaps could beat the Swedes and the United States I went to the zoo and I asked the shims And I did that by distributing bananas with a B and C so they actually answered by random because they don't know anything about the question And the sad thing is that when they answered by random they get So you didn't beat the shimpy then, huh? You you were better than the Swedes and the Americans, you know, but not here. What does this mean? Let's get serious because this is serious When you answer worse than random it means that the problem is not lack of knowledge The problem is that you carry preconceived ideas Which makes your score worse than ships Now you were only or you were almost on par with the shim so don't be so sad, you know But this is something I found that core knowledge about the world is not known So let me show you a little about the world. Let you show you how it can be looked like I take my beloved bubble shot here and what does it show each bubble is a country the color here is Where it's situated red Asia yellow Europe green America and blue Africa Sice is population. This is China here number of children per woman And here on this axis tragic child mortality 100 per thousand dying 200 per thousand dying 300 and I start 1964 that is about 50 years ago the year I started college and Then the world was clearly divided into one group of countries here. We called the developing world They had large families and high child mortalities some even have every third child dying up there And then the developed world down there small families low child mortality. What has happened? I will play the world for you and you will be able to see with your own eyes Have there been progress have there not been progress. Huh? Here we go Ready steady go. Can you see child mortality is falling? This is China They had problems in that period but then starts family planning in China and they go down here and lower and lower child mortality India is following down there. Look here comes Brazil and Mexico follows there. These are North African countries coming We are in 1990s here and we can see the African countries who have had problem is coming down here This is Ethiopia Ethiopia is going on faster and faster and everyone is going down and they are going down into the corner With small families and low child mortality. It's an amazing progress Almost no countries left in that tragic box with large families largely because so many children were dying Now let us go into a little more detail and look at two countries here I would like to go back here and pick two countries from 1964. Let's take one up here Bangladesh now that was Cambodia. This is Bangladesh about 60,000 million people at that time and and down here. Let's take one one of the European countries down here I pick Italy there the sort of cradle of civilization those of industrialized country in Europe and Bangladesh Opel, let's take away the others How far have this Mainly Muslim quite poor countries without any gift in the form of of mineral resources that could make progress easy How far has Bangladesh reached have they come halfway to Italy in these 50 years? Have they come longer or shorter? Let's run it little fast here. Bangladesh is coming They gain their independence there they get organized they get education for women They get aid they use it well and they catch up and today Bangladesh is beyond Italy 1964 did you know that How come you are at the World Economic Forum? It's strange. There are these slow trends. We are missing it has opened an opportunity For us who teach to Compliment media because it has been a tremendous change which we have seen here And if I take away if I take away Italy here, you can see Bangladesh was there But you will say this is just one bubble for the country that is in equity in the country, isn't it? and I've looked carefully and of course the better off with higher income and With more education are down here But I've also looked at women with no schooling at all in Bangladesh They have three children and they are up here. So this is the worst of today They are like 10 to 15 years behind the average and others are down here And we know that schooling of women is almost more forceful than economic growth when it comes to take down family size and child mortality now Here What I want to show you is also money. Let me swap over from this and Change this axis instead of babies per woman here Let me take money and I can do that. I can do that quite easily by Asking here for income and the income will be will be like this or I can I can swap this to economy Let me take instead G and I per capita. That's exchange rate like this And I have prepared in fact another slide for this here. We are here. We are look here We can we can Expand this one and now we have one hundred dollar one thousand dollar four thousand ten thousand and beyond there And here is child mortality It happens to show algae area there. Can you see how distinctly it is? Beyond the certain income level almost no country say up there Angola Angola has been successful Economically, but you can't buy health and social welfare on the on the supermarket It takes quite a time 10 to 20 years to convert economic resources into social welfare and Angola is on its way to do that But with these exceptions rapidly rich countries We see a line somewhere coming down here where they where they are better off here This size of these bubble is population now I will show it more clearly size of the bubble I will show as number of children dying, but we are really wanting to to attack in also the new Sustainable development gold so I go here and I change to number of child deaths here we are and And can you see even China with so many people have now quite low child death rate India still is high here But when I take these countries backwards a little can you see how it was before the bubbles were big up here? And I drag them forwards They have shrinking and they've got smaller and smaller and here we are here We are today in the whole world and we know quite well where we have the worst problem It's below this line Let's see what it is. Let's see what it is. It's almost India I used to say to my students that if someone comes from outer space and want to see the world and only have one day to visit They should go to India because they can see everything in India the most fantastic success progress being made but also removed rural areas were still Extreme poverty is rampant, but decreasing So this is the level interesting This is exactly the level at which Gavi says countries should have good help for vaccines for children Can you see how evidence-based that cut-off line is? Instead of using the old term developing countries at 12,000 over here In fact, I don't allow my students to use this concept any longer because it doesn't have any meaning not even hardly any definition The upper middle income countries here who are now emerging economies very successful Indeed, they have achieved quite a good social progress when you look at both family sizes I showed you and also their threats of children So this shows us that the main reason for optimism here is the evidence of the past We have done tremendous progress in this world and we have come down to very low level Then you would say well, there are so many other threats. There are terrible things. There is a ball out there You know things will just get worse. You are just you are just looking at numbers Well, I'm not just looking at numbers. Let me show you here. I go I go here. This is the ball and Liberia This is mid October whenever one was asking is it going up or is it going down? I was able to clear three months on my program I went to Liberia and I was offered to work inside the Minister of Health as an advisor And it was an amazing experience to see the world come together with different skills and really work together with the nationals And this is what happened. The latest point is from yesterday. I've updated it But don't think it's over. Can you see how nasty it is here Ebola? It's flat at this level now Because Ebola will end as it started slowly slowly slowly slowly slowly then got dangerous And it will end slowly slowly here. We need Contemplacy we need to work all the way until the ball has gone and this threat we have avoided We can make the world much better the long-term trend is going in the right direction the conflicts and the Disasters and the epidemics we can solve. Thank you very much