 Good morning and welcome to the weekly market update with me, David Madden. Today's date is Monday, the 29th of June, 2020, and the time has just gone, 11.55 British summertime. And it's been a reasonably choppy start to the European session. The indices opened lower, then they were quickly in positive territory, then they were going back and forth, and now they're showing modest gains, DAX and the FTSE and the likes to roll up, you know, three-tenths, five-tenths of a percent. So modest enough gains, but the kind of indecision and the kind of quickness of the market tells me that traders are kind of wondering which way to turn. The common theme, picking up from the back of the end of last week, continues to be sadly the coronavirus crisis, the COVID-19 crisis. The situation in the U.S. has gotten particularly bad. We saw quite a few states in the U.S. last week, so a dramatic increase in the rise of new cases. And at the back end of last week, U.S. stock markets particularly had a decline. On the back of the news, a number of U.S. states, such as Texas and Florida, have actually been rolling back on the reopening of the economies. So traders in this part of the world are thinking, what, are we going to have a similar scenario here? You know, many European economies, in the last few weeks and months, have taken steps to gradually reopen their economies, get things back to normal. Shouldn't we see a spike in cases in Europe? Are we going to see something similar as well? Are we going to? Is it going to be a case of two steps forward, one steps backward? It is worth noting in terms of the health stats, they are considerably worse in the U.S. in comparison with Europe. So that is necessarily, Europe is necessarily going to go down that route, but it is certainly a possibility. It is something which traders are truly mindful of. This morning we heard from the U.K.'s Prime Minister, Prime Minister Boris Johnson. It could have talked about how now is not the time to be taking a step back in terms of the economy. Mr. Johnson pledged, you know, in advance back in the last year, on the run-up to the general election, big spending across education, technology and infrastructure, and he's basically doubling down on that. So, like many other economies around the world, the attitude is going to throw money at the problem. And, you know, it's central bank to do so much, it is time for fiscal policy government spending and the likes to really kind of play its role, too. So what I'll do now is, a quick look at the week ahead article, discuss the major events of the week coming, then I'll look to the major indices, major currency pairs, and the major quantity. So, those of you that tune in for it regularly, you will know what the structure is. This year is the week ahead article. It can be found on our website, cmcmarkers.com, under Insights, News, and Analysis. You'll find it there. So, looking ahead to tomorrow, we have the final reading of U.K.'s first quarter GDP. Tomorrow, we also have fourth quarter numbers out from FedEx. The U.S.-based delivery company. That's going to be of interest because given the huge rise of online shopping in the last few months because of the lockdowns, FedEx's numbers are going to be interesting. You know, as you've seen, online retailers have done very well and therefore online retailers require delivery services. We have the second quarter coming out on Wednesday. We have first quarter figures out from Sainsbury, one of the big British supermarkets. Wednesday, we have German unemployment too. We have the manufacturing peer of our reports for the major economies of the world coming out on Wednesday. Keep in mind, not long ago, I believe it was only last week, we had the flash readings of manufacturing from a number of countries, the U.K., Germany, France, the U.S., and they all show big rebounds in activity between May and June. So that's going to be people are going to be keeping an eye on that. Constellation rounds have first quarter numbers out on Wednesday. We have the Fed minutes coming out on Wednesday. Keep in mind, at the last Fed meeting, the Federal Reserve basically said interest rates are going to be kept at or almost at zero probably until 2022. And the minute very clear, the U.S.-centered bank is going to do what it takes to get the economy back on track. Lastly, well, let's say lastly, next up on the list, U.S. non-front payrolls. It usually comes out on the first Friday of the month, but this particular report will come up on Thursday, which is Thursday, the second of July, because Thursday, the third, apologies, because Friday the third of July is going to be U.S. holiday because of the U.S. 4th of July celebrations. So on Thursday, non-front payrolls are going to be out. That's going to be the most important and most closely watched reading, not report of the week. Keep in mind, last month's reading, they're respecting the headline figure, the number of jobs and payrolls to decline by 7.8 million jobs, and actually increased by 2.5 million. So there's a huge shock in that front. And senators are going to be wondering if economies are reopening, are more people coming back in jobs? Lastly, we have the service PMI readings for the major economies of the world. Like I said, we already had some flash readings for the June report not too long ago, and the UK, Germany, France, and the likes. And they also showed decent rebounds and activity between September and, apologies, between September, between May and June. So we're very watching out for that as well. Essentially, while economies reopen, are we going to see economies pick up as well? But as we know from the U.S., if you open the economy and people are really, people are milling around as normal as they were, pre-crisis, could we see spike in infections? And all of a sudden, both those reopenings could be reversed, which we're sadly seeing in some U.S. states. So starting off with the major indices, as always, I begin with the FTSE 100. So there's a bit of a common theme here. I'll be covering the FTSE, the DAX, the S&P 500, and the DAO. And a bit of a common theme all across here. Nice upward trend for the last few months. The FTSE hit a three-month high in June, but then we had a bit of a pullback here. The highs of late June didn't take out the highs of early June, and now we're kind of consolidating in this zone around here. We're pretty much on this trend line here, from the lows of late March to the lows of mid June. If you could hold above it, and if you could hold above the fifth of the moving average, which was just below it, it's likely the wider upward trend could, it should continue. And if you press on higher front here, we could be looking at targeting the June highs in around 63, 13. And if you go beyond that, we could be looking heading towards this red line here at the 200-day moving average, and that gives us a play at 67.70. If on the downside, we do manage to move lower, we do manage to break below the trend line, and even if you go below this line here, the fifth of the moving average, which comes into play at 6,050, the next big number to keep alive forward of the downside would be the big psychological number of 6,000. And then if you go beyond that, we could be looking heading back down towards this area here down around 5,800. It's quite a similar picture across the other indices. You'll see what I mean in a second. We're now looking at the next solid upward trend, nice trend line going along here. As we can see, we've actually just fallen below that trend line. We're not too far away from it. There's still a possibility we could get back above it and look to continue and press on higher again. That should not be the case. We could be looking at targeting heading back towards the June highs in 12,930, and if you go beyond that, 13,000, the big number, the big psychological number will be the next level to keep alive forward after that. But notice how we are in a bit of a consolidation area here. We haven't really taken up the most recent lows, but at the same time, the highs have been lower. So right now it looks as if the bias is to the downside. I shouldn't have been the case. If we do get a decent break below here, we could take it back toward this blue line here, the 50 moving average. We can see how nicely it actually has supported on a few occasions in May, so the possibility that metric could actually support again in the future. And that comes into play at 11,475. Looking what's going on over in the US starting with the Dow Jones. Similar picture here, the Dow Jones is a nice upward trend for that number of months. It's a four-month high in early June, but notice how similar to the DAX and the FTSE, had a multi-month high, had a pullback, found support here from the 50 moving average, this blue line along here, rebound. The subsequent high in mid-June didn't take off the highs of early June, but we've actually seen a few lower lows. So tears are wondering, what's the next move? Is it a case of we are going to find some, we're going to hold support above the 50 moving average and then the wider upward trend will continue or is this the beginning of a, we've had a lower low, a lower high, and a lower, how are we moving lower? If we continue to move lower, how we take off this low, they would have seen a couple of lower lows and lower highs, so it could take us back down towards the 24,000 area. On the flip side, if market does manage to maintain support from the 50 moving average, which comes into play around 24,970, there they're about, if you can hold them on that metric, we can press on higher from here, retest the two moving average, notice on a few occasions it acted nicely as resistance, so that if we do move higher, it will be a cloudy watch area, which comes into play at 26,288, and if you press on higher beyond that, we can really keep retesting the early June highs. Lastly, take a look at the indices terms over at the S&P 500. Once again, similar situation there. It's been a nice upward trend for the last number of months. Similar scenario to the down, where it hit a full month high in early June, had a pullback move lower. Highs of mid June failed to take out the highs of early June and would be creeping lower ever since, and in fact, we're below that trend line, we're pretty much below the truly moving average, so things aren't looking particularly strong for the S&P 500, but nonetheless, we're above the fifth of the moving average, the blue line here, we're also above the water of the moving average, which acted nicely as both resistance and support in May, and also support again in mid June. If you can hold above the moving average average at 299818, it's likely a wide wider trend, could lead an attack. Should that be the case, we could really keep retesting this area here, which is the late June highs in around here, in around 3,155, and if you go beyond that, you could be like me heading towards the early June highs in around 3,233. So we're currently trading at 3023 on the S&P 500. The next area of support should you move lower is 3,000, and then if you go below that, fifth of the moving average and also the one-day moving average. Take a look now at some of the big indices, turning off with the euro versus the US dollar. So wider picture, mid-May onwards, euro-dollar has been in a nice upward trend. In a three-month high in mid-June, drifted lows out a bit of a pullback. We reacted, we bounced back from the pullback. The subsequent move to the downside here last week didn't take out the lows of mid-June. So we're still in the wider upward trend. If you look at the press on higher from here, and if you take out the recent highs, say the high of last week, we could put us on course back towards the kind of 114 area, and if you go beyond 114, we could be like me heading back towards the highs of March in around one spot, 1495. If in the flip side though, if you manage to move lower yet again, and we take out the most recent lows here in at one spot, 1168, I could put us on track for this red line here at the 200 moving average, and that comes into play at one spot, 1033. I should now take a look at the pound versus the US dollar. The pound dollar hit a monthly month high in the middle of June, but in early June, but since then it has been drifting lower, seeing a lower low, a lower high, a lower low, a lower high, and another lower low, so things are not looking great for the pound at the moment. Below the 20 moving average, the 150 there, and we've actually fallen back to a level last seen, you know, we're talking about three, three and a half weeks low. So if we do let's press on lower from here, we could be looking heading back down towards 122, and then if you go below 122, we could be looking heading out towards this area here, the mid-may lows of in at one spot, 2076, and I think I'll be on that. We can then be heading back down towards 120 itself, with the next big number to keep an eye out on. If under the flip side though, the market kind of wide open trend that has been in for the last few months, if that does come into play yet again, if you do get back above the 50 moving average and the 120 moving average, we can then be looking at retesting the 20 moving average here in at one spot, 2683. Notice how it acted nicely at resistance in the middle of June, and the metric hasn't been important to the past, it makes it likely to be important in the future, although there are no guarantees, but if we do retake the 20 moving average, we could then be on track to retest the mid and early June highs in at one spot, 2813. Excuse me. Before I do, I covered our gold and then bring through it all, and then look to wrap things up. Apologies, that was copper. So the gold market very interestingly, only last week hit a fresh seven and a half year high. The highest levels, in fact, even today's, the levels just are not too far away from it. So we're not too far away from about a seven and a half year high in gold, which really tells everything, you need to know about how strong the market is. Gold hasn't been particularly volatile recently. The swings you've seen have been particularly strong, but it's in a very strong open trend. So we're currently trading at 17.72. If you press on higher from here, we could be likely heading up towards 1800. That's the next big level to keep an eye out on for gold. If you do see a pullback, support treatment to play from the lows of Friday in at 14.47. And even if you go below that, it could be headed back towards this blue line here, the fifth of the moving average, which comes in the play at, sorry, apologies, 17.23. So we can see that it nicely acted as a pull on a few occasions, so the possibility that metric could act as support yet again. And even if you go below that, the next period of potential support will be the early June lows in at 16.70. Now lastly, I'll take a look at Brentford Oil, the August contract. So it's been really fueling the oil market in the last few months, no pun intended, was the talk of real economy and then the actual real economy of economies. So a major move to the upside in the energy market, say from late August, sorry, from late April, into June, a phenomenal rebound in the oil market. It's been a bit, it hasn't really pulled back a whole lot recently, but hasn't gained any more ground. So we're not too far away from a three month high on Brentford Oil, the August contract, but it's really making much ground. And as I suspect there are kind of concerns in relation to demand. If there's talk that economies are not going to be kind of in lockdown restrictions are going to be reimposed, how is that going to impact demand? So recently sentiment strong in stock markets and sentiment strong in the oil market has been reasonably similar. Our economy is reopening. If so, demand's likely to rise. Our economies are gonna have their reopening plans put on hold or reversed. That's likely to have a negative impact on the demand for oil. But nonetheless, the upward trend on the last few months is still intact. If you press on fire from here, if you take out most recent highs on Brentford, we could be making a target in the lows of early, this level here, the level seen in the first week. In the first week in March, before the big drop off in at $45.85. And even if you do have another pullback, you could be looking at retesting the lows of mid June in around $37. And if you open up 37 bucks, we could head back toward this blue line here, the fifth removing average at $35, spot 35 cents. Thank you for listening. That's all for this week. Have a good trading week. Stay safe and good luck.