 The following is a presentation of TFNN. Trade what you see with Larry Pezzavento. Call now toll free at 1-877-927-6648 or internationally at 727-873-7618. Now Larry Pezzavento. Hey, welcome all to another excellent edition of Power Trading Hour. Now it's just, I had a little problem and I had to get it solved before I could go on the hair today. We will continue on as always as we say. It doesn't really matter where you're at as long as when the appointed time comes, you are here. The following takes place between 2 p.m. and 3 p.m. So, what do we have going on today? Well, a whole lot of nothing, but I'm not going to say it's a surprise. I said in my newsletter this morning I didn't expect a lot for today and actually said rather flat. And, you know, we've got a few things going on here this week, but we get into options exploration on, what is that, on Wednesday. So we've got a couple of days like that. We've got earnings coming up. And, you know, much going on today, probably not. We'll look at some of the ones that were on earnings. After the bell of the night, we've got Chegg, which is not a big deal. Take 2, Amgen, Simon Property Group. We'll find out what they're saying about real estate. Tenant Health Care, that's kind of it. We look at tomorrow morning, we've got Pfizer-Cody, British Petroleum, Cisco, the one that is the food company, not the one that's the router company. I think one of those two needs to change their name. Harley Davidson, interesting, Warner Music, that's kind of it for tomorrow morning. Peloton Interactive, of course, a lot of rumors going around about them and maybe Apple buying them. Seems like kind of an Apple company. Very expensive, you know, maybe twice as expensive as what you get for other things. But all about the name recognition kind of company. Digital Turbine, Corsair Gaming, Chipotle Mexican Grill, Enphase Energy. Enphase is going to be a real interesting one. Left, Travago, then we get into Wednesday of this week where we have CVS Health Care. Can it be growth? Man, did those things go up in smoke? See what I did there? Anyway, weed, the devils, what do they call it? The devil's something, can't remember right now, the devil's something. Yep, yep, yep, got a private message here. And what else? That's it. No, it's not Luzzie or Larry, Pezzavento, it is me, Dave White. I was just a few minutes late because apparently if you're watching battery powered clocks and it gets cold, the battery slowed down and it must have happened over the last day or so. I was looking at the thing and it said about two o'clock, so I went over to sit down for my show and it was saying the show starts in 30 seconds. I'm thinking, uh-oh, rut-row. Anyway, Yum Brands, what else do we have out here? That's on Thursday. Disney, a lot of people scratching their heads on that one, could go one way or the other. Uber, so we have both Lyft and Uber this week. Sonos, Twilio, Zynga, I guess getting bought out so that's not such a big deal. Mattel and MGM iRobot, that's always one that seems to have some pretty white swings after hours. Equifax or Riley Auto Parts, which I think last time kind of disappointed. Now on the 10th, we've got Twitter, PepsiCo, this is before the bell. If I do it right, I hope so. Yeah, Twitter, PepsiCo, AstraZeneca, Coca-Cola. Why are Pepsi and Coca-Cola out on the same day? Why is that? That's just weird, isn't it? Phillips Morris, a dated dog, which I saw was up earlier in the day. We'll take a look at that today. Tapestry, another one that did well in the shutdowns, but we'll see what happens. After the bell Thursday night, we've got a firm holdings Zillow Group, CloudFair, Aurora Cannabis, Callaway Golf, Expedia. I'm thinking about now is time that I'm starting to look at the shutdowns and maybe the moves off of these. Let's take a look at Boeing. I think Boeing is going to tell us right off when the bottom is in for travel. I don't know if you want to pay at that time play Boeing or something else, but you've had a nice test of the lows. Let's go back here and you said this. You had a nice test of the lows. The downside was the volume was about the same. I've set back. You've got a nice bounce out here. It would be very nice if Boeing would come back down to maybe around 200 bucks on just no volume. It's got no volume the last three days. I don't think we've made a low in travel just yet. Zendesk, what else do we have? Applied DNA Sciences, APDN, and GoDaddy. After they decided to change their marketing, I think they've lost their mojo. Cleveland Cliffs on Friday morning, Under Armour, Goodyear Tires, Inbridge, Sensitive Magna International, and Dominion Energy. Anyway, let's get to... Oh, I think I've got those right. I should have them up. The three-day rule. Wanted to get to that. I had a couple of people already emailing me. That is about Facebook. Metamucil, whatever you want to call it. They were out doing EVIL again this weekend. I guess they haven't learned. Certainly that big gap down to the seventh. Tomorrow will be the third day. I still wouldn't do anything to that the way I count it. You got Friday, Monday, right? Is that right? Okay. Let's turn those off for a second. You have the second, the third, and I'm missing the fourth. I'll have to figure that out during the break. Let's do this so I can get back on here. It's the third day, right? I thought that was right. Here we go. So you got first day, second day, third day. So it would be tomorrow. I guess that's why everybody's emailing me on this. But I'd say if you've got a big gap, the three-day rule applies all the time. It's just too easy. But we shall return like a car for the Philippines or a bad rash. Y'all will return after this. 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Watch online at TFNN.com or on TFNN's YouTube channel and become the investor you were born to be, TFNN Educating Investors. Toll free at 1-877-927-6648 internationally at 727-873-7618. Thank you, Mark. We wanted to talk about some history. What is chess? What is it up there with golf? You can almost watch golf. I don't know if you can watch chess, but it's probably interesting. Of course, one of the first complex games attacked with computers. Like I said, they started in 1997 by 2003. You couldn't beat a computer after that. You could tie as he did. Basically, that was his strategy was to run to a draw. But no one's really tried since then. Generally, a lot of people think, well, if you can do that, you can do everything else. It's all a matter of percentages, though. The idea of extrapolating that to the stock market had a lot of people, very interested, thinking they could destroy the stock market. I mean, chess is a much different game than the stock market. It was the stock market much more like poker than chess. In chess, they call it... What is it? I'll think of it in a second. Everything is known. Literally, when you see the chess board, both opponents figure it and know exactly where everybody is standing. There's no hidden cards like poker. I want to try to think of... I don't think of it. Anyway, on this day in 2003, you can't beat a machine at least at chess anymore. And of course, only three years ago, the Asian game of Go, which is played with little stones, kind of a bigger version of some of the other games. And you know what? It took them that long for that one, but much more complex than chess. And slowly, machine learning has started to defeat a game where... or games like poker, by just reducing the complexity and capitalizing on the errors of players. But pretty much now thought that you're not going to beat over time a computer using machine learning in poker either. But hey, we're all just waiting one day to serve our computer overlords. But hadn't been able to do that other than a very short term on the stock market, although people still try. Humans are still better at it for the most part, unless you're talking about in milliseconds. What do we want to go back here? I want to talk about the last thing. And since we left on Friday, actually this started to come up. We're starting to price in a 50% chance now of a half a percent hike in March. So just know that people are getting fairly bearish about the push to get this going faster rather than later. And sooner rather than later. But I don't think it's pretty hard for anybody to start handicapping this and saying that we aren't probably going to get four great hikes, if not five, and maybe two in one to get things back to normal back in March. Give me call 877-927-6648. Got a couple of questions out here. The first one is from Nancy. She says she's in a cold and rainy Washington. I'm in a cold but free state of Florida. I think the sun may come out here a little bit. I'd like to take on the likely outcome of lawsuits against Apple on their app store fees. They've lost it all. They will lose in court. I've read enough about antitrust. You've got a incredibly aggressive antitrust person in the FTC now. She spent her life writing about antitrust cases and the ones that got away before now. But not much going on. What's your view of the stock price? I guess is the eventual question. Here was my, there we go. Let's take a look at Apple. Of course, it's heaven or hell on earnings these days. Not a lot of in between. You're not going to purgatory after earnings. You're going straight one way or the other. Certainly light volume today. My guess is that this is probably going to come back to about the 162.50. So is that the end of the world? No. Going to hold up better than the market? Yes. If this starts going down, is it taking everything with us? Yes, but it'll probably be fairly slow. I don't see a lot going on in that. Thanks for the email, Nancy. What else do we have? Eddie. Basically, same question. I'm worried about Apple basically wandering since their pop on earnings. Any prediction on Nvidia? The big question is how far do you handicap the issue with China invading Taiwan? We found out now or at least over the weekend and some new books with prodigious documentation that literally everybody in leadership positions in Washington D.C. have been bought in one way or the other. From the minority leaders to the majority leaders all the way up to the highest office of the land have received tens of millions of dollars. I want to say old, but the previous speaker of the Senate continues to get about $10 million a year from China. Of course, all the people that have emailed me about do I think Congress will ever stop trading stocks. Well, you've got a speaker of the House that's made $250 billion on special deals. I don't think so. I think they are so bought off literally just about everybody in both sides. I'm going to throw rocks at either House. Very tough to think. I've come in Taiwan shoes. You know, all your friends have been bought off. We'll be back in a minute. Have their questions answered live on air and can privately chat with our TFNN hosts live during their shows. Interact with other tigers and tigers as they share trading ideas, news analysis and discuss the market action all trading day. Subscribe to the Tigers and risk free with our 30 day money back guarantee and become part of the TFNN trading community. TFNN Educating Investors. You could be making money off the stock market and if you're already making money off the stock market, you could be making a lot more. Check out TFNN and Tiger TV and get expert investing advice to give you the power to control your financial future. Go to TFNN.com and find the newsletter for you. 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It's probably going to take a little while to get for NVIDIA and AMD and anybody else in the semiconductor business that has a lot of, well, they're basically committed to Taiwan semiconductor who makes 80% of the stuff that we buy. The rest is pretty much, I mean, of the high-end chips. I'm not talking about low-margin stuff. But if you're talking about processors that cost 500 bucks, if you're talking about a chip that comes on a roll at 10 cents a piece or a dime or 10 for a dime, depending on what some of them are, now they're that cheap or ridiculously cheap. That doesn't change much of anything, but if you're making chips that you pay 200 bucks for and you sell them for 2,000 and that money gets cut off, what is AMD worth and what is NVIDIA worth? And you don't need to burn the entire building down. You can walk around with a hammer in five minutes at a fab and take it down for two years. So if they start invading, will they go scorch earth? I don't know, but maybe somebody will. So we could be out of semis for two years. And is it a 50% chance? Probably not, but I started off maybe six months ago at 5% and I think it's more at 20 or 25%. So it's still an issue hanging over our heads. And of course everybody, Russia, Russia, Russia, why that's an important thing. Just imagine tomorrow not being able to buy a computer for two years. Because that is really a year or two years and then we'd still have to buy it from the Chinese, which they probably wouldn't let us. Which means you've got to build everything back up here. Who would, I do have an email here, says who would, if that does happen, who would benefit? Handful of companies have fabs here in the United States, of course Intel being the biggest. But the problem is there's so many of the other chips that you would still need. You certainly wouldn't have any computer monitors, that's 100% Asian. So you got nothing like that. You might be able to get it from South Korea, because they're a big manufacturer of that. But literally everything would grind to a halt for the China-Taiwan produced monitors. So maybe you could still buy a computer. But certainly that would be a problem now. Intel, besides having locations here in the United States, has some lesser facilities in Malaysia. But they're a big other place in the world, other than farming out an entire production run to Taiwan semiconductor in a new factory that's in the north of Taiwan, is in Israel. I was reading a fairly lengthy piece about how long they've been in Israel and everything else yesterday. But certainly a very interesting market. But one of the few companies that does have at least a spot somewhere else other than the United States and Taiwan or China. So that I think Tower Semi is another big one in Israel. There's a handful of them there. Israel is a fairly big monster in semiconductor design. We've seen a lot of their companies go public over the last couple of years for ideas, both in Semi's and other kinds of tech stuff. But interestingly enough, a highly educated state where I think they have about three times the amount of PhDs per capita. They also have twice as many degree engineers as we do. They're a smaller country, but still pretty big. Other than that, Intel has us. We have one small fab that moved from Taiwan to Arizona. My understanding is that's not going to be online until the end of this year. But they did send almost everything in the fab in containers. It's going to be three, four months ago now when it started coming up. So it's going to be an interesting thing. But the one thing that you don't want is a single place of failure in case of a flood or an asteroid or invasion. And that is still going to... I think that there's going to be a discount for a long time on this until that gets settled one way or the other. 877-927-6648. Question. New subscriber to your newsletter. How do you know that the market's not going to move very far after reading your newsletter? And we're just going sideways here today. Thank you, Andy. Mostly by looking at options. They have just collapsed. I had one idea for a particular play today. And it would have been a bad play this morning. Yeah, but my guess is it's going to be hard to beat the decay on it. But that's about it. Yeah, until Wednesday, I suspect you're probably going to see the VIX continue to drop. But UVXYs, about 7%, but I think you're going to see that. And of course... Oh, I forgot to look at that today. Let's go ahead and... Is this a quad-witching month? I forgot to check. I was going to check this morning. Quad-over-witching months. All right. I'm just tired. Worked all weekend. Where is that listed? It should be on here. Okay. Third Friday of March, June, September, and December. Okay. So, still a good month to probably make predictions with options. You get into quad-witching and you get a lot of cross-currents. It makes it even tougher. But options pretty much are starting to collapse. And that's probably a fairly good indication that you're going to go sideways, at least for a handful of days. Now, we've got some earnings. I went through them at the very top of the show. Those all tend to be probably a little higher if the numbers are good or probably massively lower if the numbers are not. So, I think we've got a week, like last week, where you might have one apple that outperforms and then three or four companies that actually get eviscerated on it. Another question of Facebook. Yeah. I think that everybody is trying to figure out what's going on here, but you've blown through the gap to smorning. You don't have a lot of volume, but you do have a gap that just blowed through on Facebook. That was on July 31st of 2020. Gapped up on 53 million shares. So, what do we have now? We've got 65 billion shares. We'll be back in a minute. To help buyers and sellers make the most informed decisions across all price levels. From the price you should be paying per square foot in certain up-and-coming areas to the type of cash flow investment properties are capable of creating, Tiger Real Estate can help you make the best decision when it comes to all areas of the market. Before you make one of the biggest decisions of your financial future, call Tiger Real Estate LLC today at 727-329-8322 or email us at tiger at tfnn.com. That's 727-329-8322. Call us today. The technology around us is changing every day. With so much happening, it could seem impossible to keep up with all the information. David White's investment newsletter, the Technology Insider, is designed to give you all the information you need to understand the technology that shapes today's markets and tomorrow's future. David White has made his living staying on the cutting edge of technology. 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The prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares. To obtain a prospectus or summary prospectus, please contact Direction Shares at 866-476-7523. The prospectus or summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing. An investment in the funds is subject to risk, including the possible loss of principal. The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors. Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. That's TFNN.com and hit Watch Tiger TV. As we returned question about Apple, on Friday you said it was going to close around 172.50, plus or minus a quarter. And you also said that you thought it was going to be on the high side, it was a little on the low side. What did it close at, actually? 172.39. So you got a dime, 11 cents lower. Yeah, it's just, if you want to start looking at options and saying out how you can predict the future, it's going to take you probably a year of looking at them. But you can probably get a little jumpstart farther than I did, because when I started off there were no weekly options that really mattered. Still, they don't matter and I'd say 98% of the stocks. Apple does have enough volume in them that they are fairly predictive. So you can get a fairly good idea. If you just wanted to look as I did and just casually even as I did on Friday without running any of my more complex models, just look where the biggest amount of options are that would go unused close to the current price and that's probably where Apple's going. Interestingly enough, the biggest market maker for Apple is William Buffett. They're out of his Omaha and he rather famously in the early 2000s called Options Sewage, called them Trash, his cohort, what's his name, Mull, something or whatever, called them Weapons of Mass Destruction. And of course now they own the biggest options, really, market making operations. And this is where it's so easy to make money for somebody like Buffett to make money and that is that he already owns the stock. So if it starts going down, he can sell more calls against it and if it starts going up, he can sell puts against it. And he's kind of making money both ways. But I always said using the big men of Wall Street to advise you in the stock market is kind of like having your boyfriend or your ex-wife's boyfriend attorney handle your divorce for you. It's probably not a good idea. Okay, what else do we have? Do I think this is going to be kind of what we're doing here until Wednesday? Kind of. We may be a little bit on the high side here. I mean, we're up, what, three tenths of a percent or something, but I don't think there's a whole lot. It's going to be a step forward, step back. And really I think we're waiting for earnings and I'm waiting for the market to go delta neutral. Let's see, COP. Let's take a look at that. Questions about options. I don't have a good read on it. I'll try to get it before the end of the show. But again, really Wednesday, they make so much more predictive power than they do today that maybe you want to email me on Wednesday or Thursday morning because that's really when these things start lining up. They go delta neutral. For people new to the show, delta neutral is when option market makers think they're taking too much risk. They've had options out for 30, 60, 90 days. And those options, the premiums have slowly, hopefully run out and they've collected all the extra cash if everything went kind of nowhere. It is kind of like being in an arms business where you're selling to both sides. You hope that both sides just continue the fight and continue to buy the arms from you. If one is looking like they're going to lose, maybe you need to give them a little bit more gratis to keep the war going on. So at least you have one customer and you never know about that. But that's kind of what they're doing. They're always buying and selling and hedging positions. If they're long the equity, they're short, I mean, if they're long the equity, they're probably selling puts. If they're short the equity, they're probably buying calls. They're wanting to box each side in and hope that the market, as it does about 80% of the time, really doesn't go anywhere. Now, if you got, let's say, 2,000 stocks that have decent option positions written on them, about 100 of them actually are the top 50% of all options like Apple. So if you look at those, you can get a pretty good idea. You're just looking where the most money, amount of money is going to be lost if the stock actually goes, the equity goes to that position at expiration. So we're talking what today's Monday. So nine trading days out. As I said, though, they really tend to move the market around. There's always, in fact, I went back and did a study of it. There's always a lot more upgrades and downgrades right around that eight days before. And that is, they want to get the market moving higher and lower so they can get into those positions and sneak under the radar. If they just added 1,000 puts or calls to a position or tried to buy them and had somebody else write them, it would be pretty noticeable. So as all big like elephants know, you're not going to get into a still pond and not make some ripples. If you make some ripples and then make your trading in those moments, it's a lot easier to hide. Question about Oracle. O-R-C-L. One that really surprised me, but there's a reason why I don't try Oracle that much. And that is, it's one of those companies I talk about Planetier and Booze Hamilton. You just, if you're not locked into the Fortune 500 companies that deal with them, you know just about almost nothing about what's going on in the company. There's very little advertising. They're very tight-lipped. I never understood why it got to 106. There are a lot of options for databases that are getting significantly cheaper. And I'm going to say, I'm working with one now that is significantly better, at least for what I'm working on. So is there a reason to buy all that money for Oracle? It's becoming less and less an issue. I think that they, there's a part where IBM would just cater to the Fortune 500 and make their problems go away. That's Oracle's kind of job now for at least databases. And if you're a big company especially in finance where you're talking about dollars and cents you don't want that Superman show on where what was the name guy's name? Comedian that was stealing a tenth of a cent on every transaction. Maybe somebody will see. I'm trying to remember what it was. Okay. Anyway, what was his name? He died a few years ago. Richard Breyer was a Superman and he was cutting off just a tenth of a cent on all the transactions and he ended up with a ton of cash. I can't remember which Superman that was. None of them were really really good movies. Anyway, Oracle making sure that people don't get away with a tenth of a cent here and there based on finance. But, yeah very tough company to read because you don't know what's going on inside it. The chart doesn't look that good though. Sharpening your skills as an investor is like getting better at playing a musical instrument. You have to practice, sure, but you also need excellent instruction from experts. 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This kind of looks to me like some kind of larger consolidation pattern in the load hundreds on the gold itself. I don't see anything out here. My guess is that you'd have maybe you got some good moments before the next Fed meeting in March. But if they go half a percent on that, it's going to be very tough on gold. More of a triangle pattern here where I probably see into that meeting lower highs and higher lows. So I don't see a lot in here that indicates that this is going one way or another. Significantly anyway. Any M also out here. The energy off the bottom is not that bad. It's just the sideways action with no volume is rarely a good thing. You got a big candle comparatively today in this and you still don't have a lot of volume. If the market starts heading down, they will sell everything. Generally gold the metal holds up much better than the miners themselves. So I think what you're looking for is some kind of realization that the markets have stopped going lower and that we're not going to get half a half a percent at a whack as many people started believing on Friday. So with good numbers comes a little bit of overhead in the market. I think that overhead in the gold stocks here, but unless we get something that changes the psychology of at least a highly and I wouldn't say highly at least a flip of a coin for a half percent in March. I think that's problematic. We're done for today. For those people I didn't answer the questions, I will email them after the show. See you tomorrow. Same bat channel, same bat time. Remember to sell when you can not when you have.