 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good evening everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com Nightly Wrap-Up Show. Hope everybody is doing well. My apologies, there was no weekend video. I usually record the weekend video, either Saturdays or Sundays, but I figured I had nothing planned on Sunday. I didn't realize my sons, not only my sons, but both my kids, basketball, AU schedule was crazy. I had a whole tournament planned on Sunday, which I had no idea even existed, so I didn't have any unfortunately any time. But, never behold, here we are. So, I can honestly say, and before we get started guys, I want to welcome all the new viewers. Please like, share, subscribe, tell a friend, all that good stuff. Again, unbiased talk about what we believe is going to happen based on data. Based on that data, here's how we begin. I bet a lot of you guys probably share the same kind of day. If you trade pivots like me, or you trade the mid-cap market, if you trade, whatever your drug of choice is. I bet you, right? I pretty much bet you not knowing your process, not knowing your account size, anything. I'm almost positive to say you probably had a pretty slow day. Today was probably one of the slowest days I can remember, well definitely for 2023, but probably in a very, very long time. Literally, we had one pivot at the open, Tesla broke out of a little bit of a range, and that was it. That was it. You could have literally turned off your computer after the first half hour of the day. Market did absolutely nothing. When you look at the scoreboard, the Dow up 200 points, the Nasdaq down 55, not a huge disconnection, but still, nevertheless, you had over the weekend, Citizens Bank buying the assets of SVB. As you can imagine, banks are strong today, I guess, if you can call them strong. Going from Citibank, going from 52 to 42, and being up a dollar is like winning the shortest dwarf competition. I don't know if that's politically correct. I apologize to anybody in the audience, but that's kind of what it was. It's like a gambler losing $100,000 and running around naked pounding a chest up their $500 victory. That's kind of what we are right now. The banks, they rose, the S&P rose a little bit, the Dow rose a little bit, and that's about it. We are incredibly stuck into this challenge. From the good point of what we're seeing is, yes, I think the market is definitely stabilizing. You can see it. The more days that are going past the initial collapse after the first bank and then the second bank and the third bank, I don't know how many banks have already collapsed, but the point is the market is definitely stabilizing. How do you know it's stabilizing? We are shrinking in channels, and the last three days, all channels have been shrunk, especially on the Nasdaq 100, and if you look at the cues, they're trading in a deadly, deadly tight channel. If you traded today anything in the Nasdaq 100, you heard the word chop, you heard the word boring and sleepy. It was all that stuff. It really is all that stuff. I really think today was one of those days that no matter how you trade, unless you are a crazy hyper-micro scalper on the one-minute channels, I think today was a very, very lethargic, complacent day. The question is, what is the market waiting for? We're too far away from the next Fed meeting. There's nothing really imminent as far as political unrest, as far as I know. This COVID thing kind of left. You could make an argument it was never here. You guys, notice nobody's even talking about COVID. It's like it never even happened. No more commercials anymore. You don't need to do your 18th booster. Nothing has happened. But again, it's a whole different conversation. Again, that's how slow the day was. You start thinking of things that have nothing to do with the market. We have to, as traders, you could only do three things. You could sit there, complain, and all that crazy stuff that is going to mentally drain you. There's nothing you could do about it. You could pretend it's not happening, put on your blinders, and trade the market like everything's all good. You'll get chopped up. Your money will go away. Your brain cells will go away. Everything will go away. Or you could be an adult. There's something called sitting on your hands. And usually, when you hear people say, well, sit on your hands, they usually, that means they don't have a process enough to trade both sides of the market. You'll hear people start around as well. Cash is a position as the market is blatantly going lower as you can get some great value through the outside. But this is not one of those times. I think this is one of those situations that we kind of have to let the market do the legwork for us. And you can see here how tight this channel is on the queues every single time. And it's not like the queues are going, you know, raining from the whole channel and coming right back up. They're just stalling out. Look how tight this channel is here. It was basically a training from 309 to 307 literally here for the last five bars, and that's not a good thing. So technically speaking, what we need to happen is the queues need to lose this 307. You see this whole 307 channel that's been the low, they've been defending that 307 level for the last three days. That's the level that needs to breach. If the bears can get take control of the 307 level, then I think all these stocks that are sitting in this really aggressive, ugly contraction cycle, they will start getting pulled down. Now what was cool about this morning was we were sitting there and like, all we wanted was a directional bias. We didn't care which way. So the one thing that we did not want to see was the market closing in the middle of the range. I either wanted a really big aggressive market rally to the top of the range or a big aggressive nasty sell-off to the bottom of the range so we can get value on those ranges. And guess what? We closed right in between, right? 307 is here. We're basically 309. So look, is it possible we can get back down to this 307 level? Yeah, I'd like to see that because at this point, you know, when you sit on your hands once, you're responsible, right? That's a good thing. You sit on your hands twice. You're still responsible. You start getting antsy. The longer we stay in this distribution channel, eventually even the most professional, statue, patient trader eventually is going to snap and start hitting buttons, clicking the mouse. And unfortunately, that's never a good thing. You don't trade because the market's open. You trade because you have value. This is your chance to start developing that and letting go of that FOMO gene. The FOMO gene is a very, very powerful gene. It's in everybody's DNA. The faster you can get rid of it, the better. And although a day like this or the last couple of days might seem like, oh my God, this market's like not doing anything. God, go up, go down, do something, right? It's actually developing your ability to be a professional. And, you know, it's not going to show up on the scoreboard. It's not going to really, you know, make a dent in your profit and loss column. But the point is, the longer you can withhold without prostituting your money, the better you'll be, right? The better, more responsible, more fiscally responsible you'll be going forward in your career. And it's not going to mean much to you now, but it really is starting to put really good developing blocks in your subconscious when the market does expand. And I think the market will expand in the next couple of days. I think when the market really starts to expand, you'll really appreciate the days that the contraction is taking place. So you can actually sit there, watch the market not really do anything. And then when you get an expansion channel when stocks close at the top or the bottom of the range, that's when you can get super-duper aggressive for the next trading day. And that's exactly kind of what we start today. You know, if you look at a lot of charts tonight, you're going to see a lot of stocks sitting in the bottom of the ranges or at least getting to the bottom of the ranges. So it's very, very tough for me despite the market, again, putting in now one, two, three, four days in a row, right? See this four days in a row of higher lows on the Q's despite not doing anything. We're still putting in higher lows. So is it possible at any single day the market wakes back up? Absolutely. But for that to happen, we're going to have to start reclaiming back this 313 level. And if you look at the 60-minute view, that's where we got rejected. So, you know, we're right now four or five dollars away from the top of the channel, and we're about two dollars away from the bottom. So again, if you're playing the probability game, right, for four from the top and two from the bottom, well, let's see if at least the bottom channel can finally confirm. I don't know if it will, but again, if you go through your charts tonight, you'll start seeing a lot of names that potentially could be pretty good for tomorrow if the Q's do lose the bottom channel here at 307. And here's some names that I like, right? Look at NVIDIA. NVIDIA looks like it's starting to slowly roll over. Had a great run, right? Phenomenal run. I know a lot of you guys did great with this thing. It's been an absolute great trader. But now it's putting in the opposite, right? If the Q's are putting in four days in a row of higher lows, this thing is putting in four days in a row of lower highs. You see that? High, lower high, lower high, lower high. If this thing could just get below this whole channel here and lose the five-day moving average, I think NVIDIA could get pulled. You know, this would definitely be one of the first ones I'd be watching if we start losing that 307 level on the Q's. Look at Microsoft, right? Again, another one. Had a great run today, but you have to start looking for signs. Like, I think it was last night they got upgraded. The stock couldn't rally today. Again, if a leader cannot rally after an upgrade, it means it's getting tired. You see how it's just sitting here, right? You see how Microsoft was sitting here three days in a row defending on the five-day? Same thing with the video. If Microsoft starts losing the five-day, there will be a pull, right? There will be a pull as well. So if you go through the NASDAQ 100, you'll see a lot of names. Tesla was kind of odd today. Tesla got above Friday's channel. We had a nice opening range high. The stock started going higher. I was like, all right, the stock went up by $2.5 or so. I'm like, all right, this is a shot we get to 200. And all of a sudden today, the Q's stole out, start going down, and everything that went down went there. So it was very, very odd to see that. Now in a weird way, Tesla's closer to the bottom of the range here than it is to the top. So look, there's a lot of names that it's a very head-scratching type of market. And again, just to kind of reiterate the point, you have four days in a row of Q's putting in higher lows, but yet you have three, four days in a row of the leaders putting in lower highs. Something's got to give here, right? Something's got to give. And I believe in the next day or so, we will get that a little bit moment of clarity. The key is just to sit there and wait, right? Again, the market's not running away from you. There's no time limit. You don't need to put on 68 trades by 931 or your day is over. It's all about the long game, right? It's all about longevity. There's times in your career that you want to really step on the gas. You want to step on the gas when everything is closing either at the top or the bottom of the range, because that's going to give you the highest probability of the next day momentum. When stocks are in between and they still have to get to the bottom of the range or they still have to get to the top of the range, that's when you find yourself in that whole chop factor, the spin cycle. Unfortunately, if you don't know you're in this type of scenario, you're going to get chopped up again tomorrow. So the best thing that could possibly happen for us, I'm really, really hoping this does happen. At this juncture, I don't care which way we go. I really don't. We trade both sides of the market. It doesn't make a difference to me. But what we need to happen desperately is either the market gaps up above the range or the market starts gapping down below the range to kind of trigger a point of reference that the market could either confirm or defend again. But it's going to be very, very tough to have that massive, massive expansion day if these stocks don't get out of their channels. So the best bet tomorrow, I am watching technology, although again it's kind of a skewed little cycle which you really don't see a lot of queues putting in four days in a row of higher lows versus like a stock like NVIDIA putting in the same time four days in a row of lower highs. But again, welcome to the best reality show that's not on television. So let's just sit patient. Let's sit tight. We have the stocks we're watching tomorrow. NVIDIA, Tesla, Microsoft, all the names. If they could start confirming back to the bottom of the range and the queues can follow, then yes, maybe we'll finally start to see an expansion worth of good excessive trading. So guys, have a great night everybody. Again, this is what you signed up for folks. Every single day is not that guns blazing, let's go pedal to the metal, beast to the wall, right? You know, some days you got to be an adult. You have to sit and watch and sit and watch. And when the finally coast is clear and the data kind of correlates to what you're seeing technically, that's when you strike with extreme prejudice. Guys, have a great night everybody. God bless and I will see you all tomorrow. Take care.