 We don't get a ton of no-thought spots in MLB DFS situations where you can look at it and Without thinking for a single second realize. Okay. This is a spot. I want to turn to within my lineups We do get that tonight with Garrett Cole based on the Reds the weather at Yankee Stadium is pretty hitter friendly That's kind of the one downside here, but outside of that it is a Situation that checks every box. So we know that Cole isn't a no-thought spot and the guy we want to use for tonight the question is is Someone else there who can allow us to pivot to deviate in tournaments and still feel good about the upside But then our pitching slot maybe not it's very possible There is not a lot of times I will swallow that shock if I think that that gives me That's rocked upside, but we got to at least go through that thought process first and decide who will grade out best Let's dive on in talk about Cole and get you said for this Tuesday night slate Welcome on into the solo shot That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm here to break down Tuesday's 13 game Main slate with lock set for 705 p.m. Eastern for today The one weather spot is one I briefly discussed there It is at Yankee Stadium where the winds are out to center at 12 miles per hour It's also pretty warm pretty humid in New York for today So I would boost hitters for the Yankees and the Reds a bit not enough to cross out cold But potentially to get us on some bats on the other side of that game Which we'll talk about later on for sure We'll do a full breakdown of the pitching stacks and more in just a bit But first a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed our PGA DFS preview of the open championship is posted via myself and Brandon Gadoula breaking down our favorite golfers in Excalibur tier for st. 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That's fun. Luis Garcia is 95 We are Josiah Gray at 93 Spencer Strider at 91 and Jordan Lows at 9,000 with David Peterson No, it's in the guard Chris flexing Corey Kluber and Jose Barrios potentially the others 8,000 or higher could be Kevin Gosman for the blue Jays I probably wouldn't go there regardless so could be Gosman depending on how his ankle feels I'm probably gonna cross off the Jays either way even though the Phillies are missing some a couple key bats As they head to Toronto for today the obvious thing here is that Cole is the top arm of the night and I Can't find any reason to question that he I think we can spend a minimal amount of time on this one facing the reds 93 WRC plus against righties. They 23% strikeout rate Not a super powerful team. That's all plus and Cole is obviously a lead He's up to 12 starts with more slatters and his repertoire He has a 2.74 still interactive ERA in that time with a 33 percent strikeout rate There is some not ideal batted ball beta for Cole which explains the occasional rough start like that that twins outing He had was not ideal but Not sure likely he is to hit that in this matchup Upside here is obviously sick because again 12 start sample with more sliders He has four double digit strikeout games in that time. He had nine and two others So he said nine plus strikeouts in half of a 12 start sample There has been a bit of a dip recently in strikeouts But a lot of tough teams in there the Astros the Guardians and the Red Sox all low strikeout teams the Reds will strike out So Cole's the top guy in the slate don't ever think it use him as your number one guy for sure The question is can we find anybody who is on par with Cole and at the second slot is more interesting But I also think it's more clear. It's pretty clear here regardless I'm gonna put Spencer Strider number two on my list for tonight behind Garrett Cole Striders at home against the Mets and it's not about the matchup here I think the matchup actually kind of stinks Mets have a 19 percent strikeout rate against righties 115 WRC plus so I don't want to use pitchers who are facing them But striders just really good. We got seven starts on him with a full pitch count allotment And it's a decent size sample and his skill interactive ERA at that time is 2.31 with a 40 percent strikeout rate That is sicko level stuff from Spencer Strider Now that number the strikeout rate is a bit misleading because he's not very efficient with his pitches He's averaged 4.37 pitches per plate appearance in this time for context Cole is a 4.06 a lot of guys are under four in that department So it does present some risk He's not getting as much bang for his buck on the pitches he throws because he's averaging more pitches per plate appearance But striders still has hit double digit strikeouts and three of seven stars in the span He's had 11 and 12 across his past two starts and that 12th strikeout game was against the Cardinals We're actually kind of similar to the Mets in terms of the matchup difficulty Striders at home tonight even with the inefficiency in his pitches I've got him projected for 8.4 strikeouts tonight that is right behind Garrett Cole and number two on the slate Cole is a better play because the expected runs louder better Overall the matchup is better, but striders legit. I am fully okay using him here Because I believe in what he's doing. I think that the matchup is bad, but not bad enough to force him off our radar So Spencer Strider, I will put number two behind Cole not gonna have as much of it as I have Cole But he is good enough to justify inclusion in your player pool for this slate For the value play I want to stick in that same game The Braves are facing David Peterson who is getting a ton of strikeouts right now So it's a risky matchup again at the Braves, but I'm still fine with it The Braves have a 120 WRC plus against lefties so far this year, but they won 89 ISO They're pretty lethal in that regard and Peterson's had his issues even recently. He's let up somewhere and runs But man like the strikeouts have been there He re-entered the rotation five starts ago and when he did we saw Peterson cut way back on his sinker usage Instead he started throwing more forcing fastballs and more sliders. His sinker Doesn't really do a whole lot for him. So this is a very good switch his forcing fastball and his slider are both better pitches and It's led to strikeouts. He has a 32% strikeout rate in the past five starts He said seven plus strikeouts and four straight that includes a double-digit game against the Rangers The results were not always good. You know, he's had somewhere and runs he's letting us some hard contact but I think some of that's luck related because The fly ball right from Peterson in this sample with fewer sinkers is still 19% It's like he's like serving up meatballs here. So the Braves are dangerous, but they will strike out. So It's not a high floor move. It's a risky one for sure But it comes with upside and it's potentially enough upside to hang with guys like Cole and Strider if things go his way I think Peterson is a quality play here. I will talk about how sometimes the value plays I will discuss them for your benefit, but then I will be transparent and I'm not gonna use them tonight I'll probably use Peterson. I think there's a very good chance. I do. I want to stack horsefield. I think that he's pretty legit So even with Cole and Strider being there, I think Peterson makes a lot of sense I think Josiah graze leads to consideration as well to get some strikeouts, but to me it's Cole one Strider two and Peterson three I think that all three of those guys Belong in our player pools if you are multi-entering as far as stacking goes I mentioned course field I think the Rockies are okay facing my Clevenger not like a standout stack by any means I very much prefer the Padres and we'll be high on them here They're facing Austin Gomber who still hasn't quite regained his old form again I keep talking about this blaster like he had a stretch where he was legit We're up to 10 starts now since the Velo stabilized for Gomber He has a 4.71 skill interactive ERA in that time with a 15% strikeout rates Which means he's letting up far too many balls and play for course field that's led to an 8.00 ERA Some of that's due to course for sure tough place to pitch, but he's had some blow-ups on the road as well Gomber's led a multiple home runs in four of those 10 starts So I do hope he regains his previous form He was pretty fun at times, but he hasn't done that yet The Padres not a great offense against lefties, but also not terrible with a 106 WRC plus I think there is more than enough here to justify Stacking the Padres once again for tonight with it being a lefty out there I would bet we get Jorge Alfaro in there He did play last night which makes me question this but it's a lefty. He's $2,800 He has a 277 ISO versus lefties strikes out a lot, but also a lot of hard contact So if Alfaro was in there not a guarantee again given it's a lefty But I'd be okay with him for sure if he does play Hassan Kim another guy who didn't start last night, but did play eventually didn't get played appearance So I'm not sure what his health is But if he plays he's pretty solid against lefty at $33,000 Luke Voight is 32, which is pretty low Many Machado obviously as well I think the Padres really saw a top option for stacking for today The Dodgers are facing Matthew liberator and there is risk in stacking against him because he has some prospect pedigree He should be a good pitcher long-term It's not sure if he's there yet, and I will stack against him in this spot We got six starts in liberator in the majors He has a 4.74 ERA in that time that is what it is But comes with a 5.07 skill interactive ERA and a 5.49 expected ERA A lot of that is because liberator is walking too many guys He's letting up a lot of hard contacts not getting enough ground balls either So it's a bit surprising as ERA at 4.74 isn't even a bit higher honestly He has done well in some pretty tough spots You had the Braves last time out held them scoreless of four innings and that start that's pretty impressive The Braves are tough against lefties and you can certainly do that again But the underlying data says that we can stack against liberator here Which means the Dodgers to me belong number two on our list And a rock solid stack not on the same level as the Padres because there are cores, but Dodgers still pretty solid for today I think that big question with a Dodger stack against the lefties whether you can Trust Justin Turner to start hitting for some power at some point because thus far his ISO versus lefties is 098 And that's across 94 plate appearances ISO Stabilizes pretty quickly 94 plate appearance is not a small sample and he's not doing great He does have a 40% fly ball rate. It's making some hard contact So I think the power will come eventually. I will use him here under that assumption But I at least had to question it because you know samples getting bigger results not getting better. So I Think he'll hit for power eventually question mark, but not fully convinced. I will use him here I think that it will happen, but Just keep in mind that the number so far for Turner not ideal So maybe not as much of a focal point as some of the other righties on this Dodgers team as for our third stack Let's take advantage of that weather Yankee stadium There is a lot to like in Graham Ashcraft's data in the big leagues that a ball profile pretty nice It says this ERA actually should be better than what it currently is But I do still feel like we should stack the Yankees Against him here and the weather does play a role in that it's hot. It's humid It's windy and those are all good conditions for hitting and we've seen bad conditions Get to Ashcraft previously He let up seven runs the Cubs in one of those wind games They had a couple weeks ago but up six to the Brewers a great American ballpark Ford of the Cardinals in St. Louis Even with the batted ball numbers you can get to this guy That's especially true and this is a key for the Yankees Especially true with right-handed batters right-handed batters have a 45% ground ball right versus Ashcraft versus 61% for lefties and the hard contact numbers soar as well and the results match the peripherals here before that Cubs game dug into his minor league splits to see if this was the case there as well and Reverse splits were present with Ashcraft in the minors too So I think that if you look at Ashcraft on the whole It's not gonna look like a great stacking profile because the ground ball right in the hard contact will be low but The Yankees if you look at just the righties I think that they can do some work here and the Yankees do us some righties who can hurt you if you make mistakes So I think the Yankees belong then our top three stacks tonight, especially If you key in on just the righties within that line The primary benefactors here are Josh Donaldson and Glaber Torres obviously are in judge and Stanton can go deep against anyone and at any time but Donaldson and Stanton You're a Donaldson and Torres they could use that bump Donaldson 39% fly ball versus righties this year Torres 44% that's pretty good. I think they are both focal points for tonight Honestly, like if you need a one-off I would not be opposed I've been having a lot of issues trying to fill second base I'm sure all of you felt the same thing at times so far this year Torres 3000 Donaldson 31 I think it makes sense to give them a shot whether it be within the stack of the Yankees or as one-offs to round out your lineup Things to watch for today. Pretty excited to see Chris sail back in action for tonight Probably wouldn't be on him for DFS tonight, but I just don't think he's fully stretched out yet He went 52 and 75 pitches in his two rehab starts that had pitch counts I have sail projected for 85 tonight. We saw last year. They never really let him go fully I know it's a rib injury this time. So maybe they'll be more aggressive with him, but I just want to see before I buy in 85 pitches for sale tonight for me Excited to see what he does and I hope he comes back at full strength because baseball's better when Chris sails pitching Well, so I'd love to see him back in his old form tonight Don't mind the Cubs offense against Jordan Lyles They're just a bit too righty heavy for me to do a full stack here because Lyles Has led up a 387 slugging percentage to righties versus 515 against lefties so Ian Hap Raphael Ortega, they both work as one-offs, but Tougher to get to a full stack given Lyles How decent he's been against righties so far this year I'm okay at the ranges against the Knights that stack worked last night, obviously They're facing James Capelli in this time He's gotten some better results of late, but still minimal strikeouts a lot of fly balls The Rangers offense is starting to come on a bit right now So I'm very okay with them if you want an extra stack that might be a bit less popular It's not going to fly super super under the radar, but I think they're fine So the Rangers to me a quality option for tonight if you want an alternative for stacking Let's finish up here with some Dinger calls for today two for two last night with Jake Cronenworth and Randall Gritchick Going back to Coorsfield for the fun one and I'll go Jorge Alfaro for the fun one But the problem with that is he's a catcher and I've had catches and Dinger calls and it's no fun to you if I give a Dinger call and the guy doesn't want to play so Right now If Alfaro plays Dinger calls are in judge and Jorge Alfaro If Alfaro does not play I will go Torres as the fun one and then Machado as the boring one So depends on if Alfaro plays, uh, you know, it's kind of for different guys. I'm okay with all them honestly I think they're all kind of fun personally, but We'll go with Aaron judge where Alfaro is a default and if Alfaro does not play We'll flip the Yankees and potters around go with Torres as the fun one and Machado as the boring one That is all that we have here for today on the solo shot again Decide how you want to handle Garrett Cole versus other guys. I think that there is enough in Strider and in Peterson to justify using them. I'll still be highest in Cole for sure But and for cash games use Cole, but I'll get them in there for tournaments. I think they're good enough for that But it's totally okay if your process differentiates from where I'm viewing those two pitchers Do not forget to check out our pga dfs preview or the open championship on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed and on youtube Wherever you get your podcast to search for the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed hit subscribe Feel like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well If you've got any questions for me. I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcasts big Thank you to everyone for tuning in good luck to you with your mlb dfs lineups We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down wednesday's slate This has been the solo shot right here on the fan dual podcast network You