 Hey everybody, I'm Greg Sosman and MLB opening day. He's just hours away to break down the DFS sleep with us. I'm joined by Jim Sonnis of FanDuel.com. Jim, welcome back. Finally, man, like we get to talk some MLB. It's been a long winter, like a lot of snow, a lot of annoying stuff. You know, it's been a downtime for sports. So I'm so ready for this, Greg. I excited to talk baseball. How are you doing? I feel like last time I talked to you, like other than some of our MLB preview stuff, you're like, oh, I need a break. I am just tired. I'm run down. Break over, Jim. Yeah, no, it's fully over. This week has been kind of crazy, but like in a good way. You know, like when you're like at that point where you're like really busy, but it's like a good busy. I don't know if that's like relatable, but like that's where I'm at right now. Like a really good busy, I think is where I'm at. Good. Excellent. Awesome. All right. Let's start the DFS sleep for Thursday. Top pitcher on the board, on any board, on any day is always Max Scherzer. Does it make sense to pay up for Scherzer on opening day? Yeah, I really think it does because you do have a lot of really good options, but among those really good options to me, I think that Scherzer is kind of, you know, the top guy that I want to target for both cash games and for tournaments, and he's facing the Mets and the Mets have a good lineup that is actually better this year than it was last year with the additions that they have made. So I don't actively target the Mets. I don't want to for 2019, but when it's Max Scherzer pitching at home in cold weather, which is good for pitching, I want to use Max Scherzer. Last year in the full season, Max Scherzer had a 2.71 skill interactive ERA, 35% strikeout rate and a 6% walk rate just disgusting across the board, and he allowed just a 29% hard hit rate, which is why I don't care that he is a fly ball pitcher. On top of that, Max Scherzer was insane this spring and spring numbers do matter for pitchers, specifically strikeout rates. And Scherzer went nuts there, 34 strikeouts, over 26 and 2 thirds innings this spring. So his funnel tune up, seven innings, 12 strikeouts, no concerns over a short leash. So I think the matchup here is not one I want to actively target, but when it's Max Scherzer on the bump, I don't really care who he's facing. He's going to be the top pitcher in my mind. He always is. And if you are willing to pay the price, seemingly he'll never let you down. Scherzer is the best pitcher in baseball, taking the mantle away from Clayton Kershaw and makes for a very safe start on tomorrow's slate. Up next, we will go to Houston where Justin Verlander gets that big contract extension and now starts on opening day against the Rays. Obviously a matchup you're going to like. Oh, absolutely. And Verlander earned that contract extension. Like he pitched so well last year. And I think when you look at him on Thursday's slate, he is more so a tournament play, whereas Scherzer is in play for both cash games and tournaments. And the main reason I prefer Scherzer in cash is because he is at home, whereas Verlander is on the road. But for tournaments, Verlander's ceiling is really good. Like you said, he was good all last year, earned that money. But over his final eight starts of last year, there was an extra little change up here for Verlander because he started throwing his curve ball more often. It was a nasty pitch for him all year. Now where the final eight starts, he really emphasized that pitch and it led to amazing results. A 2.28 skill interactive ERA with a 38% strikeout rate. Fees facing the Rates. And the Rates are not a bad offense by any means, but their active roster, based on their 2018 numbers, ranked ninth in the league in strikeout rate, the ninth highest strikeout rate in baseball. So they do add a bit of an extra ceiling to opposing starters. So to me, when I look at this opening day slate, I think that Scherzer is the guy I want for cash games. And then Verlander and Scherzer, the two guys I want for tournaments. I like Blake's now. I like Jacob DeGrom and Aaron Nolan is fun too. But when I look at this top end, to me I think that Scherzer and Verlander stand out most. Verlander could go a little bit more overlooked than Scherzer. So for tournaments, he has a lot of appeal for me. Understandably so, Verlander had a ridiculous year last year. 290 strikeouts. I don't know how many people realize that he struck out that many players. And hey, Verlander seems to get better with age and makes a lot of sense on opening day against the Rates. One name that you just left off when you were giving out DeGrom and Nolan and Verlander and Scherzer was Masahiro Tanaka, who faces what could be the worst team in Major League Baseball and that's the Orioles. Easy answer, you want to play them. Yeah, and I generally, Greg, am not a proponent of targeting players just because they have a good matchup. And that worries me a lot of the time. But I think with Tanaka, there are a lot of other things working in his favor that make this something that's more than just a matchup-based play. Last year he upped his splitter usage to the highest it has been for his entire career for a full season and it actually went up even higher after he came back from the disabled list in July. Over his final 15 starts, Tanaka had a 3.21 skill-interactive ERA. His strikeout rate went up to 26% and he didn't walk many guys. Like Tanaka was just a really good pitcher over that stretch run after he came back from that injury. Now the thing to be cautious with, with guys who use a splitter quite a bit is that sometimes it can take them some time in the season to get a feel for that pitch. So you may wanna be cautious with them at the onset of the season. So Tanaka, I think I do put more weight into what he did this spring. But what he did this spring was nasty. He had a 34% strikeout rate in the spring. So I don't think that splitter is an issue. It seems like he's gotta feel for it. I love that. And the Orioles, like you said, they're not great pop. They're probably gonna be terrible. Their active roster had the third highest strikeout rate in 2018 against right-handed pitching. And it's the highest strikeout rate for an opponent of any of the upper tier arms for this main slate. So I think that Tanaka, if you look at the ego beyond the ACEs, beyond Verlander and Scherzer, he's probably going to be the most popular mid-range pitcher at $9,400. But with this matchup and with how good he was last year, how good he has looked this spring, I'm okay with that. Mousler or Tanaka is a very logical play. I think that if you do want to go with a cash game play and spend down from Scherzer, not something I would do in cash games, but I think that if you do, you do want to do so, Tanaka makes a lot of sense and he has a good play for tournaments as well. He's a very good play for the tournaments that you'll have on Thursday on opening day. Tanaka, one of those middle of the road pitchers that is before a nicely matchup is right and has a little history on opening day as well, pitch well this spring too. So lots of like when it comes to Tanaka. Let's move on to some of the stacks, particularly with the hitters. And we'll start where we left off with the New York Yankees and Tanaka. If you're looking at some of the hitters to stack, one that comes to mind is Luke Roy. He's very cheap on Fandal. He's gonna start at the designated hitter position. You know, Roy's always a threat for a home run. Yeah, I think the Yankees are on paper the best matchup we've got for this opening day slate because they're facing Andrew Cashner and Cashner is not really what you would think of for an opening day starter. For the Orioles here, last year he had a 5.33 skill interactive ERA, just a 15% strikeout rate as well. And both those numbers are the worst among starters for this opening day main slate. Back in the past, Andrew Cashner was able to get around that lowest strikeout rate because he kept batters in the ground, got a lot of ground balls and navigated around it that way. But last year, that was not the case. His ground ball rate went down to 40%. So I think that on paper, the Yankees check every box you want for stacking. The one concern I would have is that they will be very popular and baseball is a high variant sport. So I try to deviate from the most popular stack when I can for tournaments. But for cash games, the Yankees are a great option. You mentioned Luke Voight. He is a great hitter, no matter if he's facing a righty or a lefty. And I think you look back to Monday when they had most of their entire strutting roster out there, he was batting fourth in that lineup. So Voight's probably gonna bat fourth or fifth for a loaded lineup and a great matchup. So Luke Voight makes a ton of sense. Greg Byrd, the other guy in that first base battle, probably gonna play first base on Thursday. He is $2,300 cashner, terrible against lefties. Brett Gardner is a value option too. So you got some value options. You got your studs here at the Yankees. So I think it's okay to fade them in tournaments if you want. But for cash games, my hitters would start with New York. We'll start with New York. The matchup's too good. Andrew Cashner's too bad. You gotta love Luke Voight and the Yankees in this matchup here on Thursday. Another stack that Jim's interested in is the Chicago Cubs. In particular, Chris Bryant. The Cubs facing off against the Rangers who also aren't exactly starting a stud on opening day. Why else do you like Chris Bryant? Yeah, I mean, I like Mike Miner in a lot of ways. Like I think he's a good pitcher. The problem is, like you said, not really what you expect on opening day. And Mike Miner last year, too, his credit made some really good changes. He was getting clobbered by right-handed batters. So started to throw his change up a bit more. And that did lead to really good results from July onward when he emphasized that change up more. But even when we look from July on, right-handed batters still had just a 19% strikeout rate against him and a 48% fly ball rate. Those are numbers that can lead to home runs pretty quickly. So while I like Mike Miner and want to credit him for the strides he made last year, I do still think this is a stack we can target here for the Cubs. The Cubs are gaining a DH as they go to an American League Park. They're in a great environment for hitting in a very warm park when not a lot of parks on this opening day slayed our warm and, like I said, they do gain the DH and face Mike Miner, who's not quite on the same tier as a lot of the starters for opening day. As far as Chris Bryant goes, I think the appeal here should be pretty obvious. Last year before he got hurt, he was playing really well. Just a 17% strikeout rate, his hard hit rate in his fly ball rate was both above 40%, but then the injuries piled up and things started to tail off for Bryant after that. So he's got a full offseason to rest up now down to $3,800 on FanDuel, playing a great park with the platoon advantage. I want to buy in on Chris Bryant while I can. Got some good value options here between David Bodie, you got Wilson Contreras, Alberto Amora Jr. as well. So the Cubs, I think a team you can go to both for studs and for value and a team that I do want to target in that awesome environment down in Texas. It's a great hitter spot and that's why you want to go with a better hitting team. The Chicago Cubs and it's Chris Bryant and it's a whole lot of other Cubs. Get him in there on opening day. One last stack to get to before we hit the break and that's with the St. Louis Cardinals who should be in a high scoring affair in Milwaukee Miller Park against the Brewer's and one Cardinal that stands out. He's Matt Carpenter. Carp was brutal in April last year and in March as well. Why is this year gonna be different? I was very aware that he was brutal. Lost a lot of money on him in DFS and had a lot of season long teams that looked pretty bad with Matt Carpenter out there, but I think could get started in a good way on Thursday against Julia Chassine and the Brewer's. And I last year did not stack against the Brewer's very often but I think that there are four things working in the Cardinals' favor for this one. The first one is that Chassine himself is, you know, not, he's kind of like Mike Minor where he's not bad, but he's not quite in the same tier as other guys starting on opening day. The second thing is the Brewer's bullpen is not what it was last year. Corey Kinable's not gonna be available for this one. Jeremy Jeffress is out. So I avoided the Brewer's in general last year from a stacking perspective, but I don't think you have to as much this year even though Josh Hader is still there. This game is also indoors. That's awesome for St. Louis because it's going to be warmer than what we'll see in New York, in Minnesota, other places we could look to for stacking. That helps Matt Carpenter and the Cardinals as well. And I got a guy named Paul Goldschmidt in the middle of that lineup. That's awesome for Goldschmidt, but I think it also gives a boost to Marcello Zuna, all the guys in this lineup, just because it gives them additional opportunities for run-scored and RBI's and should extend the game too, having a guy like Goldie in the middle of that lineup. So Matt Carpenter can be a bit risky with Josh Hader lurking the bullpen, but everyone's risky with Josh Hader in the bullpen. But the good thing here for the Cardinals that if they get a lead early against Jolie Chassine, the Brewer's may not waste Hader against this lineup. So I think that Matt Carpenter's a stud I want to prioritize here. Yadir Molina's a bit cheaper at 28, and he's got some good power. Got Colton Wong at Dexter Fowler if you want to take advantage of what Chassine did against lefties last year. So got some options here. I'm not opposed to Goldschmidt and Ozone and De Jong, but I think that guys like Carpenter really do stick out in this matchup. Absolutely, in Miller Park, where it's going to be warm because you're indoors, these players are gonna feel like they're in Arizona and Florida again. Just hitting bombs away. It should be very, very nice, unlike in the Bronx where it probably won't be. We'll take a break. We'll give you the stacks, the superstarters you want to play. And now when we come back, we'll give you the undervalued players. Guys, you may not be thinking about where they'll make good starts on opening day. Stick around. More from Jim Sanez next on the FanDuel Hurry Up. Back with you on the FanDuel Hurry Up, Greg Suspin, Jim Sanez hanging out. And like we said, we gave you the superstarters you need to get in your lineup. Now let's go under the radar. And we begin with a starting pitcher, and that's Luis Castillo. He wasn't under the radar last season coming into the year as he was projected to break out by many experts. He didn't until the second half where things got a little bit better. The inconsistency remains for Luis Castillo. Why do you think Jim will see him be a bit more consistent, at least on opening day? Yeah, inconsistency is not a bad thing for DFS. You can predict when the good side of that inconsistency will come through. And I think that for Castillo last year, we kind of saw what can happen when that good stuff comes out. And with him, it's $7,600 for opening day. I think that he is appealing. And now normally I would be wary of this guy, tapping as being under the radar because if he is the best value coach, I think he is, people could turn that way as they try to pay up for guys like Aaron Judge and like Giancarlo Stanton. But there is a lot of value hitter on this slate and with guys like Verlander, Scherzer, Snell, DeGrom all available, I don't think people will be paying down a pitcher all that often. I think that Castillo will still be low owned for this slate and he stays in the pirates. They are not a high strikeout team, but they're also not the most potent lineup. That should help out for the consistency for Castillo. And I think that last year, when he got better in the second half, as you mentioned, it was partly because he started to throw his change up more often. So it was a tangible change for Castillo that led to the improvements. Overest Vinyl 9 starts using that change up more often. Castillo to 3.34 skill interactive VRA with a 26% strikeout rate and a key 6% walk rate. Cutting down those walks was a big thing for Castillo in that second half run. So I expect him to have a good year overall given what he learned as the season went along last year. And I think that could start on opening day in a lower temperature environment facing the pirates, not the best offense in the world. So Castillo to me, I think he's a pretty good salary saving option at $7,600 who may not be as popular as he would be on other slates. Price is not going to be too high and he's not going to be out there on many teams and tournaments. But Luis Castillo, if you hit it right, would pay off in a major, major way. Consider him, but then don't actually start him. Up next here on the hurry, one last picture to get to. It's one I'm a little bit more excited about and you know, Jim is as well. It's Jose Berrios, and I'll let you do the accent properly. But Berrios placing off against the Indians not exactly the lineup you want to face. You'd think now that Francisco Lindor has sprained his ankle again, Jose Ramirez, a legit question mark going into this game, their offense isn't what it was. Yeah, I think when you look at this matchup, people are going to see Cleveland and be like, oh man, I'm not going to target this offense because they were so good in 2018 and they were so good in 2018. And I never used pictures who were facing them. But it's not just Francisco Lindor. It's not just Jose Ramirez. It's Michael Brantley. It's Jason Kipnis. Those guys are not going to be on this roster for opening day either. And even if Ramirez is there, it's still going to be a much lesser team than it was in 2018. Berrios is kind of like Castillo, where he's a guy where he is very high variance. He can have really bad starts sometimes, but we also saw last year that he is a workhorse who can pitch deep into games and can get you really big point totals when he hits the plus side of that variance. He is $8,900. I think that ceiling is pretty good. He's also a good discount from the other arms, like Tanaka, like Scherzer, and like Verlan. Last year, I think that Berrios had this issue where in May he didn't really trust his curveball, that kind of Bugs Bunny type pitch that he has, didn't really trust it. But once he got a feel for that, from that point on, he had a 27% strikeout rate for the rest of the year, despite having another funk in August. So Berrios, I think the upside here is really good. I don't think anybody will use him because if they look back at 2018 stats, Cleveland's not an offense you want to target, but given the injuries, given the departures they had this all season, they're a team I'm totally okay going against with a pitcher and I think that Berrios makes a lot of sense doing so at $8,900. You can see the fact below me, Berrios, nine shutout innings in his first start last year. As Jim said, he goes deep into games and he's successful at it. Hopefully that is the case on opening day against Cleveland. We know Jim's hoping for it. Some of the undervalued hitters on this slate begins in Texas and that is with Red Dead Odor and I'm glad we bring up Odor here because it's facing off against the John Lester that was just awful in the spring and a lot of his success last year seems to be a mirage. What makes you like Odor on opening day? Literally everything you said, Greg. I think that you kind of hit all the marks there. I like a lot of this matchup here and I would be totally okay stacking the Rangers here if they didn't have like nine left-handed batters in their lineup. John Lester is not great against lefties which is part of the reason we can go to a guy like Ruggedo Odor here. Just kind of kills the buzz a little bit from a full stacking perspective. But Lester last year, 4.57 skill interactive ERA which to me says that ERA, a little bit flukey, just a 19.6% strikeout rate for Lester and Ruggedo Odor can bang left-handed pitching. He had a 45% hard hit rate against lefties last year, a 39% fly ball rate and his strikeout rate did go up but it was still just 23% which is not all that bad for a guy who does strike out a little bit. And the other thing you have to love about Odor specifically against Lester is that he can swipe a bag. Lester, not the best I would say at holding guys on base at first base. So Odor can add some upside with his bat. He can add some upside with his legs as well. So if you find guys in the Rangers who can hit left-handed pitching despite being left-handed, I think you should go with them because Lester was not good overall last year from an advanced metrics perspective, struggled against lefties too. So Odor's in play, Joey Gallo's in play, stacked them with the Gallic Elvis Andrus and maybe she ensued Chu for another lefty too, could get a pretty contrarian stack as people try to avoid those lefty and lefty matchups. Ruggedo Odor, I really like him coming into this season and I think on opening day against John Lester I think you're gonna get a little small taste of how good he could be. I really like him tomorrow in DFS. Moving on, we get to a Colorado Rockies player despite the Rockies not playing in Coors Field and that's David Dahl in Miami. Why Dahl over some of the other Rockies players? It's not even that they're not even in Coors. Like they're in Miami, which is like the polar opposite of Coors from a park factor perspective. So that's definitely a downside but I think you can go with any of the Rockies lefties here. I'm not gonna talk you out of Daniel Murphy, not gonna talk you out of Charlie Blackman but David Dahl cheaper than Blackman and I think that his power upside is better than someone like Charlie Blackman. I would not talk you out of Ryan McMahon. Because he is a value option left-handed ban I think he should be in there on opening day as well. So not to say not to use them but I think that my favorite one of these lefties is going to be David Dahl. He's facing Jose Urenia and Urenia has had flashes of being really good but even when he's been good Urenia has struggled against left-handed banners. Last year he tried to combat that by throwing more change ups and even after he did so his straight get rate against lefties which is 16%, he allowed a 38% hard hit rate and a 41% fly ball right. Now that doesn't sound, it's not as bad when you're in Marlins Park and getting to benefit from how good that park is but Marlins Park is also not as big of an advantage this time of year when it's colder elsewhere. I think that the park really becomes bad when it gets warm elsewhere you can get the better advantages for hitting in those other parks. David Dahl was tremendous last year against right-handed pitching. He had a 38% hard hit rate, 36% fly ball right. And I don't think he'll get much attention just because they are on the road but Dahl, good hitter no matter what the environment may be facing a pitcher struggles against lefties. So I think you can go with any of the lefties for the Rockies here. They should all be pretty low owned but I think that Dahl stands out to me if you're willing to pay a little bit then Ryan McMahon is a good value play as well. Even though of course Field and Marlins Park are two completely different stadiums Rockies are always intriguing whether it's Ryan McMahon as you mentioned David Dahl or somebody else I'll let you say it again Jim. Jose who? Jose Urena. There it is. Urena, I cannot do it, you can do it. Facing him, it's a good match for some of these Rockies players so consider getting him in there. Now up next we go to the White Sox. We go with Yoan Moncada facing off against Brad Keller and the Royals. The good news is Moncada will probably have trouble striking out against Keller who doesn't really strike anybody out. That news is he'll find a way. He will always find a way, Greg. There is always a way for Yoan Moncada to strike out but I think for me in DFS I like Yoan Moncada because he has upside. He can steal bags, he can hit home runs and that's always a good thing but I have this hard and fast rule where I refuse to use Yoan Moncada against a right handed pitcher who can get strikeouts. I won't use him against lefties no matter what the situation but against righties I will not use them if they can get strikeouts but as you said Brad Keller not exactly the highest strikeout guy. He made 20 starts last year for the Royals in those 20 starts just an 18% strikeout rate against lefties and a 13% walk rate. Now walks can be annoying for DFS because it's fewer balls in play, fewer opportunities for doubles but for a guy like Moncada who can steal a base it's a chance to get him on first base and to potentially get you those six points for a steal on Fandall. So I think that for me this is one of those flowcharkings for Yoan Moncada where is he facing a high strikeout guy? No, so I think you can use him here for sure he's got that monster upside and I think that the White Sox in general not a bad team to check out here Eloy Jimenez doesn't strike out against anyone pretty much so I think that he's interesting too as he was added to the Fandall player pool today so you can go with the White Sox youngsters have a little bit of fun there with Yoan Moncada, go with Eloy Jimenez and I think that this is a good time to do so. The White Sox in general team I do not use it against high strikeout pitchers but now they've got Jimenez there they got a fun little team and Moncada could be one of the guys who benefits in a plus matchup on Thursday. Matchup is fun and it's a plus like you said Yoan Moncada, well I think many people are kind of expecting a breakout from this year could get started nice and early against Kansas City on opening day so consider playing him and getting him in there. Up next we move on and we get to Hunter Renfrow and the thing with Renfrow is Howard is there and everybody knows that there are concerns in season long leagues about his playing time but he's expected to be in the lineup on opening day which means he has a good of a shot as somebody at hitting home run as well, anybody. Right and I think that that's the thing with Renfrow is I couldn't get him in season long because I was worried about the playing time but for DFS it doesn't matter if he's playing on Thursday you can use him on Thursday and he's facing Madison Baumgartner and Baumgartner has this big name appeal where he's always been this really good pitcher but last year kind of struggled overall so I was watching him a lot this spring didn't really seem to be fully there for Mad Bum and he faced 100 batters this spring and his strikeout rate was just 20%. He didn't walk a lot of guys but what that also means is he's allowing a lot of balls in play and he got punished on those balls in play in the spring and again, not a lot of strikeouts which can help a guy like Renfrow unlock that massive power. Last year against lefties a 47% hard hit rate and a 48% fly ball rate, probably about in fifth and batting fifth to the pod race is different this year than it was last year because Manny Machado is there which gets an extra guy in base in front of Renfrow and Will Myers is at least for now, healthy. So those are two really good things for a Gallic Hunter Renfrow coming into this year. I think you could justify stacking this pod race team using Machado, using Myers, using whichever other righties they plug in there and trying to see if Madison Baumgartner can rebound from the struggles he had this spring. It's very possible he will. You know, he's a veteran maybe he was just tinkering around during the spring trying to get a feel for other things and that's very possible. But in DFS, I am okay taking that risk and with that risk comes monster upside for a Gallic Renfrow and for the rest of the Padres lineup as well. So yes, it can be risky to stack against Baumgartner in DFS but I think the upsides for that are very much worth it. The upside is, well, it's tantalizing when it comes to Hunter Renfrow and if you just hold one against Bummy, as you said, is not near the picture that he was. Well, it wasn't gonna go a long way. I like Hunter Renfrow as a very sneaky start and daily fantasy on opening day. That's gonna do it for us. You're on the fan bill hurry up. This has been a blast. I will be joined on Friday by Jim to go over the Friday slate. No day games Friday. What gives Jim? I don't know, man. I always get pumped for like the early season day games but they're depriving us of that on Friday. So all the word with Rob Manfred and see what we can do about that. Sure. Enough planning for these rainouts. Give us more baseball. That's what we want. We'll get it on Friday with Jim. Tomorrow on the show, we'll do some March Madness and some NBA. So enjoy that. Until then, for Jim Sonis, I'm Greg Sushman. Thanks so much for watching the fan bill hurry up and we'll see you back here tomorrow.