 Typically, when Shohei Otani is on an MLB DFS slate, we know exactly what to do, and that is to use Shohei Otani as a pitcher. Tonight, I'm not quite sure I can get there due to a combination of a couple of factors, and it kind of throws a wrench into our Otani and logout approach, and I feel like we actually do want to turn elsewhere for today. So it's disorienting, it's not fun to not be on Shohei Otani, but I do think all things considered, that is the right way to play things for tonight. We're gonna break down why that's the case with Otani, where I'm looking instead of Otani for tonight and getting you ready for Wednesday night in MLB DFS. Welcome on into the solo shot. That's right here on the FanDuel Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire. You're gonna break down Wednesday's seven-game main slate with locks set for 6.40 p.m. Eastern for today. Couple weather notes here. The first one is in Philadelphia for the Phillies and the Braves. There's a chance of rain there. Looks like as of now they should be okay, but I'd check back on the timing and intensity of that rain later on to be sure. A Yankee Stadium for the Mariners and the Yankees. Winds are in from right at 10 miles per hour. With the way the stadium is composed, don't think that should be a huge issue, but would slightly downgrade bats. There's similar thing in Cleveland for the Guardians and the A's. Wind may matter a bit more there, so slightly large downgrade to bats for the Guardians and the A's as a result of the wind being in from right for that game. We're gonna dive in and get you ready for tonight's slate here in just one second. But first, a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to the NumberFire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Wherever you get your podcasts, our breakdown of PGA DFS for the Travelers Championship went up yesterday with myself and Brandon Gadilla breaking down the field for this year's designated events. Can find that wherever you get your podcasts. Also check it out. Check out the solo shot over on the Fandal YouTube page. And as of now, you can get both the solo shot and covering the spread. Each episode over on the Fandal TV Plus app. Fandal TV Plus is available on Amazon Fire TVs, Apple TV and on Roku as well. So if you've got those devices, you can get run it back up in Adams. All your favorite Fandal TV shows and the solo shot and covering the spread all in the same place just by logging in to your Fandal account. So if you want to download Fandal TV Plus again, check it out over on Amazon Fire, Apple TV, Roku and get all episodes of the solo shot and covering the spread there as they are posted later on. Already today is very exciting development. 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Gambling problem call 1-800-GAMBLER or visit fandual.com slash RG in Arizona. 1-800-NEXT-STEP protects next step to 533-4-2 in Connecticut 1-888-789-77777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-800-9 with it in Wyoming and Kansas 1-800-522-4700 or in Kansas KS GamblingHealth.com. Louisiana is 1-877-770-STOP in Massachusetts gamblinghelplinema.org or call 800-327-5050 for 24 seven support in Maryland MD gamblinghealth.org in New York 1-877-8 Hope and Why and in West Virginia go to 1-800-GAMBLER.net Pitching preview for this main slate for tonight Shohei Otani comes in with a salary of $10,700 on Fandual followed by Luis Castillo 10-6 Sonny Gray checks into 93 with Michael Kopeck at 95 Aaron Nola is 93 Hugh Darvish 91 with Martin Perez AJ Smith-Shover as the other guys at $8,000 or higher. Now we'll talk through Shohei Otani later on and things to watch and outline why I'm lower on him for tonight. As for the rest of the slate, Aaron Judge still is not back for the Yankees. And until he is, that's gonna make the Yankees a plus matchup for opposing batters. And that means tonight, we can go at Luis Castillo and feel pretty good about doing so. The Yankees active roster has a 92 WRC plus against righties that's actually tied for the worst mark on the entire slate. They don't draw a lot of walks which leads to shorter playing appearances which helps pitchers go deeper in games. And Castillo hasn't been perfect recently. He's had some hiccups but broadly he's been very good. Across nine starts for Castillo with his velocity stabilized, he has a 3.53 skill interactive ERA with a 29% strikeout rates. He is still letting up too much hard contact which could give him in trouble Yankee Stadium but even with the hard contact being in there across that nine start sample, his ERA is still 3.42 which is totally acceptable. Castillo has hit double digit strikeouts twice in that time. He had nine in another. He is one of the guys in the slate who can actually get you double digit strikeouts which he actually did do on the road once. One of those 10 strikeout games was on the road. Now not projected that high for tonight. I've got Castillo at 7.1 here which is not a massive number but it does rank second across the slate for tonight. So that's enough for me to give Castillo a go here. Feel pretty good about him just in general feel pretty good of using batters against the Yankees or using pitchers against the Yankees until we get Aaron Judge back in the mix there. Number two behind Castillo is going to be Aaron Nola and Nola is in a tough match but tougher matchup than what Castillo has for tonight because Nola is facing the Braves but he is at least a home and I think that means we can use Nola tonight at $9,300. Nola really did struggle to open this year and it's something we discussed in the show kind of thought that might happen because he was a guy who had a very long pace last year with the pitch clock thought he might have a tough time adjusting. We did see that with Nola initially and he hasn't fully ridden the ship yet because his ERA this year is 4.66 still but the peripherals from Nola are getting much better. Over his past 10 starts, Nola is throwing more sinkers and the sinker for him is not a strikeout pitch but it has still led to increased effectiveness overall. Across those 10 starts Nola has a 27% strikeout rate. His skill interactive ERA is 3.55 and he's led up a decent hard hit rate. It's not good but it's decent. It's not terrible I guess is the way I'd phrase that. The results for Nola in that span are fine with his ERA at 4.34 but he's had huge single game ups that which we'll want here for DFS. Nola 12 strikeouts in one game, 10 in another and both those games were at home which is where he is at for tonight. We did see Nola against the Braes once in the stretch. That game was in Atlanta and they did get to him. Five earned runs allowed, three home runs but also seven strikeouts for Nola. So he can get strikeouts in this matchup. That matchup happened almost a month ago so there's enough time between them to not worry about familiarity. So it is risky. He could let up five runs again tonight. That could definitely happen. The Braes are a very good team but it comes with upside and to me that's a fair trade off and one I'm okay making because I won a gun for upside at all times in DFS. I'm gonna rank Nola second at pitcher for tonight at $93 behind just Luis Castillo. So to me the studs are ranked Castillo one, Nola two as the top two studs on the main slate. We'll talk about Shohio Tani later on. As far as the value play goes you might not need to go far down tonight because the stacking options I like the most are not gonna come with high salary. But I actually don't mind one of the value plays here. That guy is Garrett Whitlock. His salary is $6600 which is way, way too low and I think you should be at least a consideration even though we're not gonna need the salary savings for tonight. Whitlock is facing the twins and that offense has very good pieces especially with Byron Buxton being back but they strike out a ton. The twin strikeout rate against righties is 28.5%. That is the highest on the slate by 3 percentage points. Whitlock has made four starts coming off the IL and throwing fewer sinkers, more changeups in those starts and it's worked out pretty well so far because in that four start sample his skill interactivity rate of 3.59, batted ball data for Whitlock is good too. The striking rate is 24% so not massive but also not low and it does get a boost here against a very high strikeout team. I have Whitlock projected for 6.1 strikeouts which is very high for a guy with his salary and again I'm not sure if you'll need it. Most of the higher salary batters on this slate are in tougher matchups but Whitlock is pretty nice. I do wish we got him on a slate where I needed the savings more but I still think he's at least worth considering here. So to me the slate is Castillo and Nola as the focal points. Gotani kind of hanging out there potentially being consideration maybe you go to Michael Kopeck too but and then Whitlock is the value again if you decide to need it I don't think you will but just in case he's at least worth bringing up for today. Let's dive now into the stacks and discuss why we may not need those salary savings because the top stack to me is going to the Mariners they're facing Johnny Brito. Brito coming back up for the Yankees and we saw him struggle in his first dart and first didn't the rotation didn't have great results in AAA either which allows us to stack the Mariners for tonight at Yankee Stadium. Brito made 10 appearances with the Yankees before being sent down and eight of those came after he shifted toward using more sinkers. So I think that's the most relevant sample and in those eight outings Brito had a 5.42 skill interactive ERA with a 16% strikeout rate. The bat of all data still was not that great there despite using more sinkers. So you would hope that would come with the territory did not there and the results for Brito matched the peripherals which is why he was sent down made four starts in AAA and the first two went okay but the second two were pretty big steps back from that. Overall in those four starts Brito had a 4.93X flip now he comes back up and he facing the Mariners tonight the Mariners have a 100 WRC plus against righties. So they're about average they're not the world's best offense but they're also not an actively bad offense and they get a big park factor upgrade and going to New York for tonight. So I think this all does give us a green light to stack the Mariners here and feel pretty okay about them. So the Mariners to me the number one stack on the slate. The park factor upgrade as I discussed is bigger for lefties than for righties given that Seattle's not terrible for righties but does give a boost to Jared Kalnick. Kalnick has struggled in the month of June only one home run this entire month but that's pushed his salary back down to 31 the results again not great but even in this month of June he still has a comparable hard hit rate to what he had before his barrel rate is actually the same as well and had a barrel last night. He's just striking out too much but facing Brito lower strikeout guy maybe that allows Kalnick to flash those bad at ball skills more often. So to me not super concerned about Kalnick's rough issues recently mentioned on covering the spread that I like him as a home run bet for tonight at plus 450. I think that Kalnick is a rock solid option the guy I feel good about for today and just in general the Mariners a fun team for me to stack for tonight. Number two stack we're gonna go back to stacking against Martín Perez. I tried this last week and it did not go well. He held the Blue Jays to two runs across six innings but not the best slate for stacking. So I think I'm gonna go back and give it a crack again which means stacking the Chicago White Sox against Perez for tonight. So the White Sox is the number two stack for me behind the Mariners. Perez to his credit did pitch really well in that Blue Jays game. He allowed just five hard hit balls on 18 balls in play and that's what he was doing back in the day when Perez had success he was suppressing hard contact. But the start before this one against the Jays Perez really got knocked around. He led up seven earned runs in three and one third innings led up six earned runs, two starts before that and both those starts came on the road. He's on the road again tonight. Perez in a very small sample this year has much worse numbers on the road than at home which could be fluky because home road splits might not be stable over the course of an entire year much less a couple of months. But either way doesn't hurt. Maybe it means I made a mistake in stacking against him at home last night but he's on the road now. So he's facing an offense whose WRC plus against lefties is back up to 111. So I think it makes a lot of sense to be on the White Sox for tonight. One guy would want to exclude if he winds up playing from those stacks is Tim Anderson. I think Anderson had been struggling all year and it was kind of odd because he's been such a good batter for such a long time but now missing some time in the shoulder injury and shoulder injuries can linger they can set power even when you're playing through them. So I think honestly it's kind of a relief that he's been setting out because hey, you hope he gets better because Tim Anderson is really fun and you want to see him healthy being to Anderson and you want him to rest up and get better but also it means that temptation is not there for DFS for stacking. So even if Anderson does wind up playing I really don't want to be there given that we know that now this injury related. So to me Anderson despite being a guy who benefits from a matchup with a lefty despite being a guy I've loved for a very long time I think even if he winds up being in there I don't really want to go there. And again, probably not gonna need the salary savings either with Anderson whose salary has shot down. So Luis Robert, Roy Jimenez, Andrew Vaughn, Jake Berger, all those guys bigger focal points for me when stacking the White Sox and Anderson if he does wind up playing for tonight. For our third stack let's talk to you about the Angels facing Michael Grove who not officially but sounds like he'll be coming back up to start for the Dodgers. He's had some big issues when he's gotten chances in the big leagues and a pretty tough matchup with the Angels. So Angels to me do make sense as my third stack behind the White Sox and the Mariners. Grove has made seven appearances in the majors. ZRA there is 8.10. His expected ERA is 5.32. So not as bad as the results would say but also definitely still stackable. The plate discipline numbers for Grove are fine. So like he's not losing there. It's from the batted ball data. Grove is letting up a 41% hard hit rates and getting ground balls just 36% of the time. So a lot of line drives, a lot of fly balls, a lot of them are well struck. That's how you get into pretty big issues and lead to an 8.10 ERA. And that's an issue that Grove had in the majors last year in a small sample as well. When we look at the time in the minors for Grove it hasn't really cured that. So I don't think that the time he spent down in AAA really fixed him. He's made three appearances coming back up and he's let up seven barrels in those three games. So didn't get fixed that first trip down, got sent down this time and didn't make any starts down in AAA. The Angels have a 120 WRC plus against right easily, 218 ISO and a lot of fly balls. So it's a pretty bad matchup for Grove. A guy who's struggling with hard contact to face a team that can do what the Angels can do. So to me, I think the Angels grade that really well for stacking. As always the bummer here when stacking the Angels when Otani is pitching is we can't use Otani in stacks but it does seem like Mike Trout is maybe better. Maybe I know the results are bad still in June but in the month of June, 59% hard hit rate. So even though the results have not been there the power has not been there he's still making really hard contact and eventually you'd think that would turn into good results. Again, it is not yet but maybe it will as the sample expands. Sally for Trout is still not low, $3,900. So we're not buying low here but I am more comfortable with Trout when after digging into the badder ball data than I was before that. So to me, I think you'll turn it around and that would make him a good play at 39 but it's been a large sample where the power has not been there. Not a low salary but I still think Trout very much worth buying into for tonight. Let's go now to things to watch and didn't wanna talk about Otani quickly as a pitcher. There are a couple of reasons why I'm lower on him for tonight and the first one is he's facing the Dodgers that's just a very tough matchup. So that part's obvious. The second part is Otani just struggling recently his skill interactive ERA is 4.01 since he started throwing fewer sliders. I'm expecting to be back on Otani here pretty soon but I am okay taking a breather from him when he's in such a tough matchup with the Dodgers and things have not been super, super smooth for him recently. Sunny Gray has been in a pretty massive funk recently bigger than Otani's. He struggled against the Tigers last time out and got yanked after just four innings. So that was pretty rough. He's facing the Red Sox for tonight and the temperatures at Target Field are very, very warm. They're the warmest in the slate by 14 degrees. So good park for hitting. I think the Red Sox could be a fun contrarian stack here. Gray does not let up many fly balls. So keep that in mind for sure but good park for hitting for tonight. Red Sox offense isn't bad. There are a lot of paths to failure but I think the Red Sox given they won't be popular are at least an enticing contrarian stack for tonight. Finally, I don't hate the idea of stacking the Phillies. They're facing AJ Smith-Shover who has gotten good results so far but he hasn't been overpowering, I wouldn't say. Let's up a ton of fly balls. So if you're looking for home runs, I think the Phillies are kind of decent in that regard. I would rank them below the others but could be a good spot for some dingers, especially given the amount of fly balls AJ Smith-Shover has allowed. Let's finish up here the Dinger calls for today. The boring one, I will go Mike Trout. Again, the hard contact has been there. The results have not. I think eventually it should get there. And again, Michael Grove letting up a lot of hard contact, a lot of fly balls. I think that bodes well for Trout. So we'll go Mike Trout as a boring home run call for today. For the fun one, I'm not sure if this counts. This might be cheating, given how good he was to start this year but Jared Kalnick won home run the month of June. I'm gonna count that as being a fun home run call. You can yell at me if you want and that's fair. I understand that but I think it's Dinger odds that Fandals Sports Book pretty good at plus 450. So we'll go with Mike Trout and Jared Kalnick as the official home run calls for today. I'd also mentioned Nick Castellanos is heating up and if someone does something terrible today, Castellanos guaranteeing Homer, the bad of all data finally coming around. So the bonus home run calls Nick Castellanos at 33. It seems like he is starting to pick things back up from a bad of all perspective once again. That is all that we have here for today on the solo shot as mentioned, do not forget to check out our PGA DFS podcast breaking down the Travelers Championship that is available over on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcasts. Also again, check out the Fandal TV Plus app where you can get run it back up in Adams and of course the solo shot and now covering the spread all in the same place and just a great place to get all of your Fandal TV content at once. If you've got any questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the Fandal Podcast Network at Fandal Podcasts. I wanna thank you all for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your MLB DFS lineups for tonight. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to break down Thursday's slate. This has been the solo shot right here on the Fandal Podcast Network.