 Welcome to Access to Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey guys, good morning everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessToTrader.com Nightly Update Show. Hope everybody is having a great weekend. Friday I woke up. I had no idea it was a three-day weekend. Zero idea. People live webinars and we're off on Monday. I was like, wow, it's amazing. That extra day off is just fantastic. It's absolutely fantastic. Another day off just to kind of relax, to spend some time with the family. I woke up this morning and you were trying to log on to your system and the market would not let you log on to the system and you were punching the air and cursing out your platform. We're off today. So go enjoy your day. Go enjoy your life. And tomorrow is another day. So let's talk about the tape. Very, very odd week for me. Okay. Incredibly odd week. Number one, if you've been watching any video I've been doing for the last, you know, for years, you kind of know the indexes for me are pretty much irrelevant. It doesn't make a difference to me if the market goes up and market goes down. I'm a very, very specific trade. I trade channels. So as long as there is directional bias and channels are expanding, it's good. Okay. It's really, really good for me. And as the old saying goes, stocks take the stairs up and the elevator down. So the question is, you know, the trading channels in a bull market better than a bear market. And it's kind of like potatoes, potatoes, because again, stocks go up more methodically, but stocks go down more aggressively when there is lack of buying pressure. And this week was very, very odd for me. Number one, I did something on Friday that I haven't done probably in years. Okay. I'm talking my years and years and years. And that was not put on a single trade. Okay. Now put on a single trade. Let's talk about that in a second. We kind of want to know how we got there. So where are we right now? Right now, we're in this massive linear move. Okay. Just a really, really met linear move. You could call it what you want. A meltup, whatever you want to call it. Bulls are obviously in control. Okay. 2% moves in all the major indexes this week, which is amazing. You got a 2% move. Okay. Absolutely amazing. Tensions easing up from Iran, China on, China off. Again, it's kind of on the back burner. But what we've been starting to talk about, if you watch the video as of even last Monday, right? Last Monday was a pretty really strong day. I caught a good Roku trade to the downside. And then I caught a really, really good balance. What symbol it was? Was it SDC? I can't remember. One of these symbols, I caught a really, really good bounce off the bottom of the channel. But if you look at the rest of the week, it was incredibly odd for me. And I found myself trading a lot of weird random names, like a really lot of random names. And again, they might not be, you know, random for you guys, because, you know, there's a lot of strength in these names like an LK or an SDC, right? Like an SDC. But I found myself trading small cap stocks, right? TEUM, right? I traded, not put it this way. Not even one. I traded three small caps stocks this week. Okay. I traded TEUM. I got, I traded NIO, right? NIO on the halt, right? I caught a beautiful bounce in NIO. I got caught on the halt on this thing. Luckily it opened up pretty much flat. So I traded that. And I bought a stock a couple of days ago that I'm still in on an option suite. Literally I bought it at $1.97. I'm still on this thing. Somebody bought, somebody bought a thousand of the February three calls. I'm still on this thing. Okay. So I found myself trading random names. I found myself trading three small cap names. I found myself kind of all over the place this week. And the results were okay, right? But that's the whole point. The results are okay. Now, again, I don't look at the indexes as well. The market is up. I have to be long. The market's down. I have to be short. It's all about value. If you watch any one of my videos, I, you know, I keep on talking about it. I don't trade because the market's open. I trade because the market's giving you value. And when you look at the whole week on beta, and that's my sweet spot, right? Again, I don't care 2% move on the NAS. It means absolutely nothing for me. When you look at beta, okay, and you start looking at all the 60 minute channels, you'll see exactly that I had no edge this week. Okay. For majority of the week, Amazon going sideways to down, right? No channels at all. Netflix just going sideways to down. No channel at all. You got in the video doing exactly the same thing. You could go literally on and on and on. You got Facebook doing exactly the same thing. You got Apple doing exactly the same thing and on and on and on. And when you look at stocks like Tesla, we had a really, really good run. But again, you can see now it's starting to go sideways and BYD that had a big, big run. Now it's starting to go sideways. It kind of put me in a position of, well, do I sit there and start randomly, really aggressively trying to find opportunity that I have no relationship with. I have no track record with. I have zero, zero efficiency of trying to identify how the stock moves, what its tendency. Because remember, if you've been watching these videos for years and years and years, I have relationship with babies and not in a weird way or creepy uncle way. I have relationships. I know what Tesla should be doing when the range goes. I know what Netflix is supposed to be doing. I understand what happens when Amazon, and again, that's a dirty name. We don't even talk about it anymore. Only because it's been stuck in an ugly range. But don't decide. I know what the stock is supposed to do when it comes out of a channel. So when I'm trading these stocks, I know when a range is going to fail. I have a good indication that, you know what, the pivot is not going to work in my way because I understand in that interval, if the buyers are sellers of control, I don't have that, you know, I don't have that relationship with LK. And I traded LK a couple of times this week, but I don't have that relationship with LK. I don't know what happens. Like is the stock supposed to go within two minutes of a channel confirming? Is it supposed to go within two hours of a channel confirming? So a lot of my week was incorporated on these random ways. Not to say LK is one of the strongest names out there. A stock like SIGNA is incredibly strong right now. A stock like SDC, who's, in my opinion, you see a lot of option flow. And if it holds this week, I think goes higher. So there's nothing wrong with these stocks, but these are names that again, I have no relationship with. And so I traded this week. I did okay, right? I had one losing day this week. Not nothing anything big, but the point is I just couldn't get going because my stocks were completely in the channel. And to kind of fast forward this into Friday's session. And like I said before, I found myself in a situation that I haven't found myself in a very, very long time. And I didn't put on a single trade, not one trade that I put on Friday. If you look at Friday's session, right, all these stocks, even the stocks like a Netflix or Tesla, they were all bunched up in their channels. And if they made any type of move, okay, they made their moves literally on one channel. So if you look, for example, on a 60 minute view, right? This is a daily chart on Tesla. But if you look at a 60 minute view, you'll notice a couple of things, right? You'll see the aggressive candles, just one candle at a time, right? Candle back down one candle at a time, one candle at a time. And none of these candles confirmed. So obviously I don't trade on individual candles. I need some sort of confirmation. I need supply to be confirmed. I need demand to be confirmed. And the whole day I just sat there and watched and watched and watched and looked at the clock and watched. And had a sip of water and watched and went downstairs for lunch and watched. And I found myself in a situation that I said to myself, I could put something on, okay, or I could wait for something that I know is tangible, that I have a defined risk on. But more important, I have a puncher's chance of actually making money in the trade. And again, like I said, I found myself in zero. So if you woke up today, right, if you woke up this morning and you turned around and said, oh my God, I can't believe the markets closed. What am I going to do today? This is terrible. Oh, is it Tuesday yet? You are still subconsciously saying that you are emotionally tied into the market, okay? You are still in the honeymoon phase of the market. You are right now in a situation that you are almost like a crack at it, okay? That needs your fix. And this is all unhealthy stuff. Because again, when you are going into a trading date expecting something, having big expectations, we cover this so many times in nausea, okay? You are still emotionally committed to the market. And when you're making and you're going to the date emotionally committed to putting on a physical task of clicking the mouse, you are already behind the April and you don't even realize that. And it does take, I mean, it really does take, I would say it took me, I would say 10 to 12 years to finally realize that, you know what, every day is not an opportunity, okay? I don't care that the stock market is up 2%. I don't care that the Dow Jones is up 300 points. I don't care that the Nasdaq 100 is up 150 points. If my stocks are not being highlighted, okay? If my sweet spot is not there, I have no business. I have absolutely no business putting on a trade. I have no business exposing my money to what the market has given you. The market conditions is correlating. And if I'm putting on a trade for the sake of putting on the trade, I'm doing it 50-50, okay? My heart's not in it. There's emotional commitment to the trade without having a tangible fact or a reason behind the trade. And I'm doing it for a fundamental exercise instead of a materialistic fact. And a lot of traders will go into every single trading day with all these expectations. Oh my God, the Dow is up 250 points. I have to find something. The Nasdaq is up 150 points. I need to find something. Everything is going up around me. How come I can't find the stock? And that's your sign. When you can't find, okay? When you can't find your very, very clean edge, okay, within what you're seeing throughout the trading day, you have to be an adult, okay? You cannot turn around and say, well, the Dow is up 300 points. I need to be long. Well, why do you need to be long? If you can't find something that fits your profile, right? If it's into your process and tied into your materialistic risk on, okay, or risk off depending on which way you're looking at it, okay, you have to be an adult, okay? And the faster you realize that the market is open to take away your money to detach you from your money, okay? The sooner then you'll realize that it's your job to protect your money harder. Go harder than possible to protect your money than actually be an alpha hunter. And it took me, I would say it took me about 10 to 12 years to figure that out. Again, I'm going on my 21st year and it really did take me such a long time because nobody sat me down, okay? Really nobody sat me down and say, yeah, don't worry about it. If the trade doesn't come today, you don't need to stress. You don't need to press. You don't need to be overly aggressive. You don't need to jump out of your shoes to find the trade. The trades will find you, right? The trades will find you. And the most important part after 10, 12, 13 years of kind of understanding that I don't need to trade every day came around Friday and I was completely at peace with it, right? Completely at peace. And people in the live webinar were asking, what do you think about UNH? And what do you think about this? And what do you think about SIGNA? And what do you think about LK? And what do you think about Apple and NVIDIA and Facebook? And all I kept on saying is they look okay, right? They look okay. But again, they didn't put me in a situation that I needed to trade. You want to trade, but you don't need to trade. You want to trade, but you don't have to trade. You want to desperately trade because the market's open. But again, if you take a step back and actually be an adult about it, right? If you actually be an adult and realize that you don't have your specific edge that day, that the path to the goal line, which again, coming off a championship Sunday, is murking. It's not clean. There's no advantage. Then you realize you should take your ball, pack it up and go home because the next day will give you a better opportunity. So for example, Friday for me was literally a 2-9 offsuit the whole day. And there's days that I could find some value, but with my whole gene pool, which are the beta names, when they're all clustered together and they're trading within 50, 60 cent channels for the whole day, that is my sign that I'm okay with not trading. I'm okay with not trading. I don't need to put on a trade for the sake of putting on a trade. I'm an adult. I realize there'll be an easier day ahead, which could be tomorrow, which could be Wednesday. I do realize also why these things are not moving. Because again, when you have a linear market, we talked about the idea of a potential rounding top. And again, I said rounding tops do not start on one two-day cycle. They start sometimes in weeks. And you're already seeing these names starting to rounding top. Again, I'm not talking about the masses and the indexes and all that. I'm talking about the beta names. The good news is what's going to kind of wake these things up. We are in the start of earnings seasons. Netflix kicks off earning season on Tuesday. I think tomorrow, right? I think tomorrow Netflix reports. And then you start seeing a whole slew of everything else. So I do believe that these stocks will wake up because the least will be a driving engine behind, which is earnings. So we will get expanded channels this week. We will get areas of concentration this week with some sort of aggression because even before they report, they will be positioning. You've already seen it with Amazon for weeks. This has been by far. And again, if you look at the chart, you'll turn around and say, well, what's the big deal? It's just resting. If you trade Amazon, you realize this is the most annoying damn thing for the last two, three months because it just does not want to take a position of strength or position of weakness. It looks like on the surface, well, the stock put in a big channel after coming out with three months and now it's just resting. And yes, there's been tremendous option buying. If you look at for the last two, three weeks, and I'm not talking about guys putting on $12,000, $15,000 bets, there's bets for the last two, three weeks, half a million, a million, a million and a half, $700,000 all on covering the earnings cycle with the 2000, the 1950s, the 2100 calls. So they are positioning. But as far as trading intraday cycles, this is like, this is really beating a dead drum. This is the same thing with Netflix, right? Same thing with Netflix as well. You know, you had this big, big run and now this has been going sideways for the last two weeks. Stock had even got upgraded numerous times in the last two weeks and it still can't get any traction for the next leg up. Again, I'm hoping, again, fingers crossed that when earnings are released on a lot of these names, not even specifically on Amazon, but once Netflix comes out with earnings, right, at least it will artificially take the other ranges higher or lower because again, they all kind of trade like a tribe. So going into this week, look, I do think we will get some good opportunities. I do believe the market is way, you know, way overbought. Okay. And again, eyes to the beholder. But again, it doesn't mean the market can go higher. Okay. My initial thought process last week was again, this was kind of a starting, kind of a rounding top of the beta names which we're kind of in the middle of that because they're not really doing anything. So they're either resting to go higher or resting to go lower. But again, if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. It's not going to cost me any money. But again, you have to have an opinion. You can't go into every single day, eyes wide shut and saying, oh, it's okay. Netflix eventually will wake up. It's okay. Tesla will eventually go up. And again, maybe they will, maybe they won't. But going into this week, yes, of course I'm cautiously optimistic, but I do realize that, well, this is real. Right. This is really, really real. And eventually there will be an aggressive pullback. Our job is to identify that before it happens. And the most important thing is don't have risk on at the top of the market. So going into this week, again, I like the tape. I like the tape. I'd like to see some channels confirm. Again, the article, you know, the argument on Tesla, you know, one party thinks it's going to go back to 400, which I don't think so. The other party thinks it's going to go to 1000, I don't think so. But something in between, there's going to be a real market. And you can see the ranges, right? You can see the top of the range here, right? And you can see the bottom of the range here. One of these channels has to confirm this week. Okay. It's not going to just sit here in a channel, you know, in a steep channel going sideways for much longer. Again, this is a big, big move. The sellers are either going to confirm this channel and go back to 459 or the bulls are going to confirm this channel and go back to 550. Something has to get it. Same thing with BYND, right? Something with BYND. And again, BYND is starting to get really, really tight. Okay. Now, if you look at, if you look at just from the last three days, you'll notice three red candles and not only three red candles, you see three inverted hammers, which is bearish. Okay. But it doesn't mean it's going to go down until this channel is reversed. So again, you can clearly see a very, very tight channel to the downside. You see a very, very tight channel to the upside. Something has to give. You can make that argument with a lot of these names. Look in the video, right? Look in the video, right? Look in the video as well. Look at the 60 minute channel on the video. Look how tight it is to the downside. Look how tight it is to the upside. If you look at Alibaba, right? Same thing. Look how tight it is to the upside. Look how tight it is to the downside. Something has to give. The only problem is it doesn't need to give tomorrow, right? And if you are a newer trader and you're waking up and saying, oh man, I'm going to buy Alibaba tomorrow. Oh man, I'm going to buy Intel tomorrow, Facebook tomorrow. Well, I'm going to buy Tesla tomorrow. Why? Right? Let the market tell you when you have to enter these trades. And again, they could sit in the sideways pattern for the next two weeks. Probably not. Hopefully not. Right? But they don't need to transform, you know, they don't need to transform into a bullish cycle, a bearish cycle because the next day the market is open. So it's incredibly important for us to wait, especially on stocks like a Tesla or beyond that are so driven. Again, they've been driven emotionally. Everybody has an opinion. As soon as the stock comes down, the bears wake up. As soon as the stock goes up, you know, the bulls are being in the chest. Just relax. Just relax. Something has to give here. Here's the downside channel. Here's the upside channel. One of these things we'll give. I'm hoping it's to the upside because the momentum of this thing is tremendous. So I'm really hoping for the upside in a weird way. I'm kind of hoping, you know, I'm kind of hoping B wakes up as well back to the upside because look how much room you have. You've got a lot of room to the upside. Again, I don't mind trading it to the downside. Again, you'll have some value here, but there's a lot of room to the upside. So going into tomorrow, I'm hoping, you know, am I expecting these things to wake up tomorrow? I have my fingers crossed. But again, it's very, very possible. I'll find myself trading some random stocks again tomorrow because again, it's just the nature of the cycle that we're in right now. Again, I can't change it. I wish for it. I can't turn around and saying, well, you know, it's Tuesday. The market is ready to go. I'm ready to go with it. They have to be spotlighted. My trades need to be perfect because again, trading, you don't get a mulligan. Okay. You don't get a mulligan. You don't get a redo if you're wrong. So let me give you guys some ideas for tomorrow that I do like. Okay. That I do like for tomorrow. And you know, Qualcomm had a big day on Friday. Okay. Really, really big day on Friday. And it finally broke out of this channel. I had some pretty good option activity coming up. I would prefer to buy this thing on a 60 minute channel. Okay. I do. I think if this thing gets down to a 60 minute channel, one of the best plays that I found in years and years and years on a stock finally breaks out, especially after a long distribution, you can see how long this distribution was going all the way back to November 8th. If they open week, right on a light volume wash out, those are the high probability bounce plays that will take it to red to green. So I definitely like Qualcomm for tomorrow. Pets, you know, keep an eye on pets. I had some really good option flow on Friday, Thursday or Friday, and it's very, very close to breaking out. Okay. Very, very close to breaking out here. That 28th level will be, you know, that 27, 80, 28th level, if it starts to build, I think this thing can go. AVRO, I'm not really familiar with this name, but you know, I kind of want to watch it, you know, for the next couple of days here. Keep an eye on this thing. This thing starts building above 23. Maybe this thing goes as well. I like Sigma. I like Sigma. Sigma had a really, really strong day on Thursday. Okay. And rested. Okay. The rested on basically about a third of the volume. Okay. On Friday and any single time you have a setup like this, this is a perfect continuation trade for either tomorrow or Wednesday. Again, preference. Obviously I would love to see a dip, right? An early morning dip into a 60 minute channel. Okay. If you get it and you get a bounce red to green or obviously a break above this whole range here, that would be good as well. And you know, I kind of like the pot stocks. You know, I think the pot stocks, oh, that's the one I caught in the early of the week. I caught CGC on a 60 minute support bounce. That's the one I bought, but these pot stocks are holding up fairly well. And again, this group, considering the news and all these, all these news events over the last couple of years of, you know, legalization of marijuana through all these different states, they've been, they've been generally a very disappointing group because they really had their opportunity to kind of grab the headlines and just, just run with it. And they've been having a very, very hard time with it. But if they wake up and start confirming, last week's highs, they could be good. Like if you look at, for example, TLRY, this thing starts confirming 2260. Next leg up, you've got Cron, for example. Cron starts confirming, you know, this 885-9 area. You got CGC trying to, you know, trying to, if it could close above this whole 50-day supply of 26, you have next leg up. So there's definitely things to do, okay? But again, our job as traders are to have an opinion, have an understanding of which way the wind is blowing, and just wait for our confirmation to play out. Don't be a baby about it. Again, there's nothing better, okay? Especially new traders, you'll learn this as you get older in this business. There's absolutely nothing better than being in complete control of your trading and not trade because the market's open because you are getting the fine highlighted value. Guys, have an awesome, awesome week. Tomorrow, guys, please get the morning strategy early. We'll definitely cover all the beta pivots and make sure everybody is in the right frame of mind for the day. Guys, have a great day. Enjoy your day off. Enjoy your day off. And God's help, I'll see you all tomorrow. Take care, guys. Have a great day. Congratulations for putting in the time to take control of your trading. You're one step closer to owning your future and achieving the success you desire. Want daily trade ideas directly from Dan? Straight off his personal watch list? Unlock our free PS60 vault where you'll get nightly updates on pivot opportunities we're watching for the next day's session. Click the link in the description to get started today.