 You live by the tight core you died by the tight core I did not have any Joe Nixon on Sunday because I'm a moron and had a very small player core and as a result I got to close my tracking tabs by about 3 p.m. Eastern on Sunday We're gonna break down Joe Nixon's performance break down how to view him going forward how I should have viewed him entering Sunday's game Also talks in Justin Fields rule changes injuries and much more to break down what went down in week number nine in the NFL This is the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here as always By Brandon Gadoula. He is the senior managing editor of number fire calm Brandon Did you survive mix and week? 2022 Yeah Now and and what's look like I'm sure everyone who builds any lineups was almost there on on certain guys who like went off, but I was talking to you right before Right before Locke and said like I think Kenneth Walker is a good pivot play Mm-hmm. I didn't really fully mention it And we I think we talked either Monday or Thursday about mixing and we said we talked one on Monday Yeah, the roles good the underlying data is horrible and so you need to do something with that work He looked good. Yeah on Sunday So a big reversal in like the underlying stats the expected stats the success rate So kind of came out of nowhere in terms of what he did with the workload, but again mix them as one of those guys is like Look, it's no surprise that by the end of the week by Sunday If you listen to like any podcast or like read any content We generally know who the the top plays are and that's generally what we we try to discuss Thursday, but then we throw in like the wrinkles of game stacks and how we're trying to differentiate by Sunday Mixing and Walker were two of the guys. I was like, I think this is a way to be different without being without being dumb I still was too dumb and didn't get there So I guess I can take away that I it wasn't like it completely hit me in the face out of nowhere Yeah, I just didn't quite take the risk of rolling the dice on someone who just wasn't doing much with the workload that he had and I do think he was a good example of like Banking on what's predictable what's predictable is volume What is not predictable as performance and his performance been bad But the usage was there the performance was there and the usage stayed good and he did what he did So I think it's a good reminder to I mean, I don't I don't want to change the tight core aspect of it The tight core I think is the right move, but I think it's a good reminder of Focus on what's predictable focus on what you can predict you can predict usage and You can predict performance to an extent But don't take what we've seen so far to be gospel Make sure you are accounting for that make sure accounting for the fact that Joe mixin is a good football player and can play well at times And he did that on Sunday. We'll talk about mix and we'll talk about Justin Fields playing good football putting together some good Building blocks for upside you could say after a 42 point out and we'll talk about all that and more throughout the podcast For today But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast Tom Vecchio is back bringing you the daily ISO every weekday breaking down NBA DFS We have our PGA DFS podcast for the Houston Open coming up tomorrow to break down that field I remember the tournament name because he told me it five minutes ago, but I remembered for five minutes whoopee for me We got a lot of other stuff here on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed So make sure you are subscribed wherever you get your podcast and if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Now is the perfect time to download fan duel America's number one sports book because right now new customers get a no-sweat first bet up to $1,000 that is free bets back if your first bet doesn't win Play your way to bet on more than just the final score wager on Everything from touchdowns until the yards to catches same game parlays all in that that's safe secure and super easy to use So sign up today for your no-sweat first bet make every moment more this season with Fandall Official sportsbook partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select states first online a real money wager only refund Issued is non withdrawable free bets that expire in 14 days Restrictions applies to terms of sportsbook. 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Yeah, I'm surprised you even write it down I figured out all those memorized like when I when I have to do it as a solo pod boy I sometimes have to do multiple takes because I can't read numbers in a row So I was at a wedding and someone asked me like oh, let's hear your radio voice and I was like I hate this But I was like I'm just gonna read off these like gambling help My default to like jump into my radio voice and then man If someone walked up to me and said like let me hear your podcast I tried to jump out the window, but it was shut. I tried I No, I wanted to pull an Omar, you know, I'll take the broken leg. We'll deal with it But like, you know, I couldn't like it there. We gave it a shot No, I'm good. Thanks. Yeah. Yeah, let's dive in here to week number nine a breakdown What went down we had to start here with Joe Mixon going bananas on Sunday five Touchdowns three on the season entering that game five on Sunday pretty good That's one thing but the the yardage was sick to 211 yards and scrimmage he got there 22 carries and five targets nine red zone chances on 17 total team plays We've been talking about the usage for a long time and he finally had a production though So how much does seeing those two together knowing that this is within his range of outcomes all to your view of mixing going forward Do you think we can do this consistently or is it more of a Bump up his ceiling to keep the median expectation the same I think it's probably a little bit more keep the expectations and check obviously a five touchdown game is I mean I guess a reminder that touchdown touchdowns aren't just Distributed evenly You know, you can get a good idea based on like a per game projection or if you look back and make this guy scored This many touchdowns per game. It's not going to be you know Like alternating weeks. It's going to be stuff like this for a lot of guys But yeah, the the thing for me with mixing that I already like alluded to was that He wasn't efficient with his opportunities Leading into this week this week. He averaged 3.36 rushing yards over expectation per carry. He had a 73% rushing success rate Catch rate over expectation of a plus 12% He did basically everything like all of the negatives just Were grasped and flipped to the point that he overperformed and and one of the biggest games of the year So it's difficult to sit here and say that I need to be higher on Joe Nixon because the world didn't really change Substantially it was that he converted on those opportunities and we have an eight-game sample or I don't know if the biggest thing Was how to buy either way they have a buy this week. Okay. That's right. Yeah. Yeah So then an eight-game sample of mixing effectively underperforming Pretty substantially and then one game with him, you know being above expectation leading in he was at a minus four point a minus point four two rushing yards over expectation per carry his success rate was 36% so he doubled that That's not really how success rates work but like that's how how big a difference it was in week nine compared to leading in so I Should have been higher in mixing. I don't think I should be kicking like kicking myself for saying I should have played a hundred percent Joe Nixon. No, so I guess higher But probably still not as high as consensus after five touchdown game Yeah, I think that it's just kind of like you bump up his ceiling But keep in mind that like he could revert back to now. I will say I think we should above the the median expectation of the offense with no Jamar Chase because I was pretty down on them entering the week in part because of The lack of Jamar Chase. I did bet them minus seven so I wasn't like that down But that was more so an anti PJ Walker kind of thing than it was a pro Bengals kind of thing I Think that's seeing them do this was encouraging because they've had they've had four games So they underperformed on early down passing efficiency this year Related expectations based on their opponent and three of those were games where they either didn't have Jamar Chase or Teagan's left early So I thought okay their their baseline comes down quite a bit when they're when one of those guys is out and I think that the baseline can come Down but the ceiling is still pretty good there. So they don't totally crater when one of those guys is out Maybe they will against a better defense. I don't know, but well, I think that for me was more so Reminding myself that although I can lower expectations. I shouldn't cross them off when they're not fully helping Yes, I mean we talk all the time about like how you take a great player off the field It hurts the offense, but this team has T. Higgins Joe Mixon I don't know how people feel about Tyler Boyd But Tyler Boyd is definitely someone that I would like to have on my favorite team. I think he's you know as a football player Yeah, yeah, so You know you give that with Joe Burrow like that's still a good core. It's not as good by any means without smart chase but it's it's different so That's different than other teams where we bump them down too much or a lot So yeah, I mean they're interesting. I would kind of be fascinated To see them on the main slate next week after this just because yeah touch down game back on the main slate that kind of thing but The buy is gonna kill the heat for for Joe Nixon a little bit Let's talk about the passing offense to while we're here Joe Burrow a point three five passing that expected points per drop back Lee Gavrige about point oh eight this year. You can check me if I'm wrong that around there I was points oh seven as of last week. I'm guessing that burrow up to himself So we'll put it a point oh eight for this week. We'll say that anyway. He's very efficient overall as a passer Only one of his throws is deep but clearly that approach work T Higgins a targets Tyler Boyd had six Hayden Hurst had five T and mix and both have a 22% target share in two games that you're more chase Doesn't seem like chase be ready post by he might be because they didn't put him on IR But I don't think he'll be back by then so Let's talk about the overall view with this offense now Given we've seen one more game without Jamar Chase. Where are you out in them? Assuming there's again. No chase in week number 11 when they're back Honestly, I'm not changing anything because I was fairly high on T Higgins and Tyler Boyd to begin with The the problem with that was I again, I just didn't I didn't quite get there I wasn't that sold on him be mostly because I I want to play offenses where I like the other side of the game Yeah, and there wasn't a whole lot of confidence in bringing it back for me So I was that On the you didn't like the Panthers offense. No here Not really the fact that Baker would come in and chuck it when the team was playing like Prevent defense for an entire half the game. Yeah, so like I think that too with the mix in like oh I think this could be you know, but a nice a nice pivot away from the other running backs It's it's a misnomer to to want running backs in blog games It just it's not a misnomer if you want the tights because you want them getting targets for all four quarters stuff like that Yeah, and I mean if if the blot results from that running back scoring all of the touchdowns It's different, but right if that was a bit more spread out then Nixon wouldn't have erupted like he did Yeah, so we'll see the Bengals once again in week 11 but I think you know bumping up the baseline a bit maybe bump the ceiling a bit but keeping things still in check because Performance is like the one against Cleveland still within the range of outcomes as well So a high variance team, which is not always a bad thing, but it is an important thing to account for for sure Let's take in some injuries here from week number nine I just want to note that Josh Allen appeared to hurt his right arm late against the jets He did say in the game It might be nothing But I think this is one just kind of like logging your brain in case we see or see like some weird performances Weird injury reports just kind of logging it for your brain no discussion necessary But just kind of noting that Josh Allen kind of shaking his hand around later in that game So if you see performance tips, maybe think about it But for right now we'll keep status quo Packers lot of injuries Sunday big one obviously Aaron Jones Got x-rays, which were inconclusive which doesn't sound good Romeo Dobbs left like right away That one didn't look good either did not come back Christian Watson got hurt again Dobbs play just one snap Watson played 17 Jones played 30 for exiting the primary receiver here was Al Nazard He had 10 targets there for a 25% share Lizard the only packer with better than 80% Route rate eight out with 16 yards because they have no deep threats on this team. Don't look like that Don't don't do that. That was before Dobbs got hurt calm down Sammy Watkins and Josiah de Guara had six or five targets Robert Tanyan AJ Dylan summary Tory had for each Dylan had a 64% snap rate, which is good against the Lions Wow 11 carries. Oh, he got some targets too. Oh, he had 34 yards. Oh Jones as I mentioned x-rays inconclusive Dobbs in a boot. They're running out of boots on this team He also had crutches. So Dobbs seems like his is pretty bad It's probably safe to say we can consider a lizard despite this offense being hideous, but I Guess actually I can ask would you want Lizard anyway because this offense is just pretty trash And how do you view AJ Dylan if Aaron Jones were to be out? They get Dallas at home next week has five point dogs deservedly so I should know What my question is and you can't do the the what about or like the What would take away this play or give him that play if there weren't was it three goal line picks? For Rogers was it three or is it just the two? I don't know but he had two right away. I did Yeah, that's my game after that because it was so boring but You you give them touchdowns there. I think the the entire Conversation is different. They were I have this in philosophy changes But and I'll talk about a little bit more, but they were not as run-heavy as they were against Buffalo. That was clearly a Opponent specific game plan there. So I I Think we can feel decent about lizard. You did mention him as a someone you liked in terms of a pivot my bigger question is What do we do with AJ Dylan if there's no Aaron Jones because I like AJ Dylan, but he hasn't shown a whole lot You would just imagine here like you would just imagine at the workload Yeah, and have 11 carries and 34 rushing yards against the Troy I mean look yards per carry and a per game sample was incredibly hard to predict but You don't want to do that against the Troy So I have a hard I'd have a hard time because I got say Lizard give me a salary for Lizard Against Dallas they are five-point favorites or dogs at home Dallas's defense is legit good 65 this week. Yeah, he's 65 this week. I would say Probably 65 again, maybe 64 just because the offense stinks. Yeah, so if he's in that range, like I don't think that we can nitpick it Sure, he's 67. It's a little high. Well, hi probably on On on play in play for game stacks though at that rate still. Yeah, you'd be the first guy turn to you for game stacks But that's because no one else is good, right? Like what do we do with with AJ Dylan? So it depended his salary. I think it's noteworthy that Kylan Hill is back Because Hill has some juice and would probably take away a bit from Dylan So I don't think we'd see like a 90% snap rate from Dylan. I will say Sorry, I'm trying to cut you off because I don't it's you Dylan 58% first half snap rate This week that was the highest since week three So this the overall snap rate, but it's not the snap rate. It's like it's he's not doing anything with it I know but the fact that he was on the field for a majority of the first half snaps might be something and at a certain point like If the salaries low and he's gonna play heavy snaps Like I don't think AJ Dylan's horrific He's been he's having a bad season. That's a that's a good distinction It's kind because it is it does harken back to the mix and discussion where just because we haven't seen it yet Doesn't mean it's not in there like productions. That's fair. So he's got I mean he's got a 44% rushing success rate He's but it's not success rate with him. I want explosion. I have not seen any of that Yeah, he's he's rushing to expectation But like we can't see him get like run around targets. Yeah, so give me a salary next week Let's assume Aaron Jones is out. Assuming you're on Jones is out. I would say 74 because I hate the offense I Was gonna say 73 Okay reason I said 73 is like the perfect number. I thought I was gonna be too low on him So I'm I'm comforted here. He's a 73 7000. Yeah, there Not a right. I think that at least that at least is low enough where It does account for some of the issues, right? Yeah, it does. Yeah Just like it's such a bad offense and like they're not they're not that bad Like they're not a bad offense. They're just a frustrating. It cuz like what you said, but like If you look at them again relative to expectations only downs they had over-reformed expectations every week except for week one Until this week where they were a half point worse than expectation. I'm really down passing this week. Oh Where those were those picks on early downs because that I'm sure I'd kill things the Bakhtiyari one was on fourth down I know So like and that's success rate base not EPA. Yes, so that wouldn't even affect it much that much either so Like that's bad We deal it but Dylan Lazard I think both in play for next week in a game that yeah, it's a 10 game main slate again. So but you know Take a game off the main slate from what's normal. We I haven't looked at the whole slate We just let that unfold as we go. But yeah, that's probably one of the better games of the week But I'd know it's not it was like 42 42 and a half. Yeah, but I love the Cowboys always. So the Packers and Ply total is 18.8 18.75 Just if I play do you think we'll get Zeke? Is that we're not gonna talk about? That's not it for Pollard quick just out of curiosity without Zeke. No, just well, it's the same Zeke place We talked about this two weeks in the last week as he plays. I But I have to cap it around like 67 also 68. He is 7,000. Okay, fair enough. You know what kudos to you Fandall Thank you for making things least interesting I don't have to like cross off AJ Dylan because he's 9000 or something like that and CD lamb 76 So I don't care about you You can Evan Ingram left in the fourth quarter the back injury against the Raiders. Chris Mann hurts We know we didn't talk. I talked on the show. We didn't play to 53% snap rate at tight end But he ran just six routes. He's a blocker If Evan Ingram were to miss time, we're probably not going to Dan Arnold I think ran nine routes old name. I don't want to go there. You can do that But could open up some for Zay Jones and Christian Kirk who we do like or I should say I like Zay Jones 29 routes and five targets Christian Kirk nine targets 76 yards and a tug Marvin Jones had six targets to How would you value? Kirk and Zay Jones if Ingram were to miss time I should note they get the cheese next week as nine and a half point dogs That spread is tightened from I think 12 and a half on the look ahead Yeah, so Ingram Wasn't as involved as he had been in recent weeks But since week five between week five and week eight He had three games with at least the 20% in game target share wasn't getting targeted much in week nine before he left But that's pretty substantial To to give up without really impacting the way that the offense should operate because I like Evan Ingram But I'm not I'm not like even close to joking about the fact that he's like a game-changer or like a Yeah, someone who so it's basically just More targets to fewer guys, so we'd actually want to consider and that's very helpful. Yeah, I know Kirk was 63 Zay was 55 this week just for a baseline. I think next week in that spot. I I'd say Kirk like 67 So he was 63, but I think that was too low. Yeah, so I would say he should be 7,000 Based on his based on his workload his workloads been very very consistent. Yeah, I'd say 7,000 That's tough as a huge underdog. I don't love that. Yeah, but it's like it's an efficient passing. I think they're efficient Sorry, I'm this is a pro Trevor Lawrence podcast. Don't okay. Sorry one half this podcast is a pro Trevor Lawrence podcast You can do whatever you want not gonna police you but as a pro Trevor Lawrence person, I think it's an efficient passing offense against a bad defense Where I think they'll be able to remain respectable and not just be full-on chase mode the entire game So I said 67 you said 7,000 he's 68 He didn't have that big of a game Zay sour yet by the way, I have not I dicks. I wanted to see what his production was yesterday. He's 55 again. Okay Would you rather have Kirk at 68 or is a it's 55? Without knowing this late Kirk But I might need to be okay with say Jones for for some savings if we're gonna have my homes on the slate at least Kelsey. Yeah, Kelsey Looks like Buffalo, Minnesota, uh digs game. Oh That's a big revenge game. He hates them. I Guess there's no Mike Zimmer anymore. Maybe the hatred's reduced So New Orleans Pittsburgh Houston the Giants Lions Bears We got we'll have some quarterbacks, but The athletic football show has a they have they call it a wick scale for like revenge games Like how many John wicks is this out of five John wicks? So like yeah, I'm thinking on back kind of thing Stefan digs the five out of five wicks for For bills versus Vikings That's a little bit too high like high level for us We try to keep it more to like the hey is a Jones against the Raiders herfter kind of revenge game They actually go for real ones But uh Stefan digs against the Vikings is an actual one. We try to keep it herp derpy around here to be honest I don't really remember to like look for revenge games that Don't worry for you. All right. Let's take into role changes from this past week. Let's talk about Justin Fields because His role changed a bit ago But like we kind of talk about it because it keeps on getting better and we need to talk about this somewhere He continued to cement himself as being a rushing quarterback in a big way because he set the record for most rushing yards for a quarterback in a regular season game With a hundred and seventy-eight. He also three passing touchdowns. I was on 20 to 10 to 123 yards But he also set up those touchdowns by running So it's not like it was like totally fluky that he had three touchdowns 123 yards he kind of set them up by himself as well Deals now is 60 plus rushing yards and four straight games He has 40 plus and seven straight games 40 is a key number because that's a passing touchdown extra passing touchdown If you get 40 rushing yards his passing was still below average here relative, you know I can efficiency perspective, but part of that could have been win related to Yeah, didn't chase Claypool here Claypool 36% snap rates he ran around on 15 out of 30 drop backs here in six targets on those 15 routes Cole commit at six with two touchdowns because why not Darnell Mooney at eight targets. So fields is running a ton His passing is passable. It could get even better with Claypool now in the fold We always want rushing quarterbacks in DFS and fields is doing that now But without a ton of passing production still so how are you viewing him? And can you stack him with Mooney now that we have another viable pass catcher in the fold here? Um So I did I did feature fields in my start set column on number fire Because I don't want to check that out. So something I've been tracking a good bit with his rushing production. I will say I'm a little bit nervous still about the passing because he's not gonna set the rushing record every week He's run about that. I Would yeah, you bet me bet me bet me. I'm not betting you after you beat me with your Cleave Raymond versus Alec Pierce bet 3.2 Fandall points 2.8. I knew low for the podcast again We we keep the herpy-terpy around here. Yeah, but he's got rushing touchdowns in three straight Eventually that won't stick He has maxed out at 208 passing yards his only game with over 200 I think he's max. He's at a max of 28 attempts which came this week In terms of passing again You love the rushing always Especially with the guy who Can be involved in the red zone and in be a threat for for rushing touchdowns but I Kind of need a little bit more than that. Maybe I'm being hard on him Are you talking about him from a stacking perspective or from a using him as a quarterback perspective in DFS? Like I'll use him as a standalone for sure I'm just saying you're skewing towards having him by himself versus stacking him with someone, correct Yeah, I need to see more than like I don't disagree. I think that's probably fair But I'm also totally okay with using him by himself. I think that's fine. I just like I Need more twos at the front of those yardages to bank on like stacks. Yeah, I think that's fine I don't disagree. I think because like with Mooney like Best case scenario is like a hundred yards in a touchdown, right? And like I'd rather I'd rather a higher-end best case scenario, especially if Claypool is gonna earn six targets on 15 routes They get Detroit next week though, that's the issue two and a half point favorites total is 48 Which is it seems really high but also I get it So name me a salary for Justin Fields against the Detroit Lions in week number 10 So he did I did see it, but I already had a number locked in you mean to guess then sure Okay, I would say 83. I said 82. He is 83. Okay, cool I think that's fully appropriate and We want rushing quarterbacks and DFS. He is that we kind of want more passing on top But against that defense, I don't think it's terrible. So what about Mooney? 59 he was 61 this past week, but I just I didn't I didn't have a huge desire to get I thought he was fine But I'd probably sixty sixty two sixty three in that matchup. He's sixty two Claypool is 58 Unawful no, did you see it's not great. She is dropped when they cut to him. I don't know if I think it's like the ESPN pregame They cut to like oh like a look at Chase Claypool warming up with any like just dropped one hit right in the stomach Basically, or like right off the hands, but so I can't watch highlights, but I Like bias He was signing Mitchell Krabisky jerseys before the game because he was wearing 10 when I thought that was pretty funny Just the the 13 yards but a catch rate under expected or over expectation of minus 40% so could have been a lot better there Story of Chase Claypool's career Cordero Patterson returned he split work though Tyler Algear and Caleb Huntley Patterson and Algear both had a 39% snap rate Patterson 13 carries in a target Algear had a hundred and twenty three yards of scrimmage had a nice screen Reception they turned this in big yardage He had ten carries in one targets Patterson four red zone chances to one for Algear Caleb Huntley at three So Patterson scored twice but was still very much in a timeshare that could improve as he gets further removed from his injury But how are you viewing Patterson? specifically in the short term Don't I never really like him because the snap rate is not there. I know he gets high-leverage work But I'm always too low on Cordero because he is just dependent dependent on being hyper efficient and I can't really think about Cordero Patterson in this like split backfield without comparing it to you know potentially to AJ Dylan without Aaron Jones and Patterson's usually like 75 ish, which is why I never get there because the snap rate and like he gets work when he's out there I understand that it's not a true snap rate as it is for most running backs, but I Think I'd have a hard time playing Patterson in this split over AJ Dylan assuming Aaron Jones is out I didn't the good thing is they play Thursday So we'll get another week to like kind of read the situation before we had to deal with him on the main site again I don't expect him to pull away yet because it is short turnaround coming off an injury So if you're playing the Thursday night slate, I would be I might skew towards algae You're honestly just because like I assume a salary be lowered stuff like that and his workload was pretty good Did play pretty well in that game? So Remaining skeptical of Patterson more so than I was last year because you were off him for most of time And I was more so on him, but I'm also kind of off him Until he separates a bit more right now TJ Hawkinson nice little debut at the Vikings 91% snap rate finished second the team with nine targets Justin Jefferson at 13 Hawkinson caught all nine passes for 70 yards He and Jefferson each had three red zone targets at a nine total So how are you viewing it TJ Hawkinson based on that initial role roll with the Vikings? Love that. I don't know how you could really surprising I mean we talked about like, you know, we'll get some we'll get some red zone work and he did But a lot of motorcycle of all time just drive past definitely did not hear the loudest motor like it told me I couldn't even think but Yeah, we were talking about how at least I did how I figured he'd be a bit limited but coming in like high-leverage situations a 91% snap rate 82% route rate That's awesome You're not going to catch every single one of your targets each week But to be involved in the red zone with again, 33% of those Targets three of his targets were downfield which for me is at least 10 yards It aren't just 5.1 But you know if part of that is because you're getting red zone targets like that's also fine So I don't really know how you look at this as a negative I think it's way better. I thought I'd be yeah, like I'm like I guess the catch rate Situation is is like the only thing that I could point to big. It's not gonna be that good. Um, yeah, but We kind of helped the offense Yeah, I wanted to see them play great in that game But like they were actually vertical which they have not been they so Kirk Cousins in that game had nine throws 16 plus yards downfield he had not had that number the entire year his previous high this year was six So a pretty big deviation. I've not checked his His eight out overall, but like they actually decided to go downfield a bit more and They're facing the bills next week. So they're gonna have to go downfield his eight out was 10.1 So 0.1 actually pretty good three entering. That's pretty good If they have a third viable pass catcher That's kind of intriguing. So name me a sign for Hawkinson on the road seven and a half point dogs against Buffalo next week I'll probably be like 66 but what do you think is fair for him? 65 Against the bills. I'd probably knock down like 62, but he's 6,000. Okay. That's not bad. No They're gonna probably throw a lot Unless the bills play like they did again this past week like, you know, I guess if you if you would have scored He'd have been like 65 though. Yeah, so Nine targets Offense would a bit vertical got some high leverage looks that's pretty good. It's close to a write-down because We're gonna need to match Potentially need to match Kelsey's upside. Yes, and Hawkinson has that ability if he's gonna play. Mm-hmm. I mean the Snaps and routes aren't gonna scale back by any means. No Not for Johnny months. What about Justin Jefferson? Valerie It's so hard and I know value running back like right Like he's worth like 93, but like am I gonna get there is a different question? So he's 86. Oh, wow. That's actually really Interesting because I have I wound up with a lot of Deandre Hopkins this week and he was I think 86 Didn't go great but like I was there That was in part because we had some value running back, but The 86 is pretty low for a guy who has like punch you in the face for not using him upside and Final thing I got to ask here is Can can we use Kurt Cousins? No No, all right, not if we have Justin fields of the slate not doing that Stick with the Vikings for a second that we could potentially use their running back down and cook 85% snap rate for the second time in three games also had six targets for the second straight game He hasn't blown up this year, but he has the building blocks for a mix in in him Maybe not next week against the bills necessarily, but name that salary on DALF with Another good usage game in his back pocket. Are you asking me to? Not to name a salary for next week against the bills, but no name it for next week. Okay. Um So he he had a nice end zone target. You love to see that so a few good end zone targets this week Also should mention that he caught that end zone. That's the target. He caught it, too Yeah, but yeah, yeah, who cares if you catch it if you get it, you know production doesn't matter You look so mad Can I make you quit by 1036 by before 1040 on a Monday? Yeah, you know, you know Jim You know what we do is we just look at Who had the most touchdowns and then we just play them I'm in a points per end zone target league So I actually do care just just the record. That's why we look at catch rate and not downfield targets Get out of here with that The fact that he had the end zone target you love to see it I'm indifferent. Give me the touchdowns. Give me the real production Gosh Name a salary dang it. Well, he wasn't very efficient on the ground. I don't care Productions what matters he hadn't ends on target put him at 1010 five. All right, we're gonna just name this and move on Product 85 I was like an 83 use 75. Oh my goodness We got to use down in a bad matchup Right Well, I mean we care about the production right that's number one on this podcast and he did have 12.6 Fandle points 47 yards and 17 carries so according to Jim No, according to any sort of underlying data and the things we look for to try to buy low But then yes, I think that's a really good salary. Is that a write-down for Dalvin 75? I think so. Yeah Hmm Yeah Six targets and back-to-back weeks a lot of snaps How many themselves I'm in a points per snap league points per target league got to take some stuff off in her cousin's shoulders because The ice is like weighing him down now because they keep I think they add a chain with every victory and he's like eventually It's gonna collapse under the weight So I feel like they uh, yeah Dalvin 75 is a write-down for me, I think In their first game with cadarius Tony the chiefs used a rotation at receiver Marquez Valdes scaling mercifully got a snap rate cut down It's a percent. Thank you Andy. Take him take him out of play for me. Just do it Just and end it now Meekle Harbin 55% snap rate Justin Watson his sky more played about a quarter of the snaps Tony Played seven total snaps. I think it's no worry that the Harbin ran 41 routes and 72 drop backs also 72 drop backs what? Harbin for red zone targets in this game He's we've talked okay This is like a heat check throwback, but he's kind of getting the is a McKenzie treatment where he is Getting a lot of uses inside the red zone because he's fast and I think people I think teams value that down there So Travis Kelsey is number one I think juju Smith Schuster pretty firmly two in terms of stacking but is Harbin now number three for you in Terms of stacking with my homes Yeah, I don't know who else it really could be I mean MBS, but I just want excuse to like blast him to the Sun No, I mean God Yeah, one target one target on 50 Even I know that's a 2% target per route right there. I'm not gonna die. I'm good for you Yeah, it's it's Hardman Number three. I think we got to be high on juju which we historically have not been But he looks like we're Rejuvenated he did look a little accident is going on one play last night I'm on juju checked out watch because it worries me I agree with you But I'm a little I just get uncomfy when I see him looking checked out. I get real uncomfy. I Agree with you. I agree with you. You are heard Okay, so we we have Kelsey number one juju number two Hardman is like probably Sort of barely in the consideration unless you love the game staff or you saying he's like a I would one off him Because what you say Russian? Okay, what you said, so then I need salaries and all three of those guys Kelsey 79 Pregnant 78. Yeah, I think it'll be 8,000. Oh gosh, 85. Yeah, that makes sense I can't I fear that they're at least with he and juju that their numbers will be inflated because the raw output Yeah, I guess no this late would have been posted, huh before correct true and they're mine So Kelsey 8 5 I get it but little little high juju I would say 68 Yeah, I said 68 as well and that like Chris Godwin sort of range, but he's 7,000 fair like it's a little high, but it's fair I think yeah, and then Hardman I would say based on the role that he has With some touchdown potential in there due to the way he's being used I would say that's like a 58 kind of role, right? I think I'm 59 He feels like the coward's way out honestly, but yeah 6000 I I'm guessing people will probably talk him up this week and they'll probably talk about the red zone role Like we literally just in and that might lead to his being popular that would make me very uncomfortable if he were to have any sort of like roster a tie to him Yeah, I think I'd be there too where I'd just be a little bit nervous, but he's above MVS like yeah I'm not gonna use MVS you could so Fandall if you if you don't want to play Fandall anymore I want to like make sure you don't you can self exclude It's a very useful tool that you should utilize if you were in the situation if it's not fun for you anymore You should use self exclude. I need to self exclude for Marcus Mark West Valley Scanling I need to find a way for them to not allow me to use him $54 for him. I'm not using him. Do not do not say that way Like is there a chrome tool? I can use that will like redact his name So I just will never have to see him then remember he's on the team Yeah, it's called using your brain and looking at it just as production and then that's all we care about I Can't tell if you're trying to tell me to use him or not No, you said that production matters. Yeah, it does and he didn't have the production so that's just Are you saying you're gonna use market Mark West Valley this gambling cuz he didn't produce Oh, he landed he ran a lot of routes. He played a lot of snaps. Hey mind about an end zone target we work like hard to you know find some role changes and Track all this stuff on Sundays If if productions what matters we should just pull up the Fandall points leaders Go I didn't say production what matters I'm saying that if you're giving me the choice between an end zone target and an end zone touchdown I'm gonna take the end zone touchdown. I just have to say you're more specific. You're saying. Oh, yeah There's a creative end zone. There's a parallelogram over there. I'm like, no, it's a square Like why can't be more specific like that's all I'm saying it's not a parallelogram. It's a square like it is a parallelogram But it's also a square We can be more specific yet a creative end zone touchdown. Yeah, that that tracks. There we go Easy-peasy. I'm a piece now. Everyone's happy and everyone goes home happy. Okay, and so I'm touching new stat now Yeah, exactly. Let's move on. Let's move on James Connor returned to play a lot of snaps, but didn't have a ton of work He had seven carriers for 45 yards five targets on 25 routes for a 63 percent route rates Connor saw one of five available red zone chances So, you know, Benjamin got good work when Connor was out But Connor is back and actually had a better role than he had at times when he was healthy So are you interested in James Connor and DFS after the way he was used on Sunday? Well, I'm not gonna bring up the bit again, but the snap rate was good the production Not substantial on not not getting a lot of work on a person at basis at least on the ground I don't know if James Connor will continually have a 63 percent route rate and be involved in the passing game I would love that if he could because at times shockingly he like can show some things in the open field which Was usually not the case and then he started to show it a bit in Arizona and it was a bit of a reality check You know, we were like considering, you know, Benjamin whenever Connor was out. I think Connor is Somewhat in play Arizona gets the Rams next week. I Feel like We give a lot of people the the Devon single Terry sort of designation Just hollow like just like on the field for like 70% of the snaps, but doesn't really he's not a fuck up I think Devon single that he's actually probably pretty good. He's in the single Terry zone. I can we just call it that in the single Terry zone? Yeah, because like his max yard is zero seventy seven like and I can't see that really changing because like Nixon against Carolina. You could see that changing because Pretty efficient offense not the worst matchup The the Rams haven't been a good team, but their defense has still been fine And I can't really see James Connor suddenly being efficient there. Yeah, I said 66 in my head for Connor If I'm putting them in the single Terry zone, it should be lower and it is lower, but it's 63 That's gonna be tough. Yeah, I think it's I don't want to go there is what I would say. Yeah at 63 that's like Devon single Terry just copy paste. Yeah, I think if it were if it were a different matchup I'd have more interest But like I just can't it's hard to see him having cuz like even though people say Fandall is like a touchdown heavy sight. It's true It is touchdown heavier than some others, but like you still need yardage to like burn people for not using you and It's so hard. Yeah, it's not standard scoring. It's not like it's just hard to see him Yardage can he burn me for not using him that equation involves yardage always and I'm not sure if he can burn me for not using him yet Yeah, I mean even at his peak when he had like an absurd scoring rate It wasn't like we have to make sure we get a ton of James Connor. It was like James Connor can like Put up 2025 because he scores three times, but it's not like yeah He was pushing the week every week. We got to figure out ways to get access to James Connor It was yeah, so I'll be a little bit tempted at 63 assuming that there's not a whole lot of running back value. Sure But probably won't be building around him by any means. I don't think I'll get beyond a little bit tempted is what I would say I don't I don't want to go there. It's more question if I'm forced to go there I think the optimizers will like James Connor a good bit this week I'm not sure if this was because he banged up his knee But Dion Jackson's role without JT dip quite a bit this week his snap rate was 63 percent He played just one snap in the fourth quarter after he kind of I thought he tore his ACL Honestly, but like he came back in right away. Jordan Wilkins played 30% of the snaps He was not there the last time we saw it seem without JT. So if Taylor misses more time How much does this game all to your view of Dion Jackson? well Dion played a 90% of the snaps in the first half That was a that was the highest mark for any running back this week. I think it was more of the matter of Sam Allen your show some stuff last week Then you know say whatever you want about Bill Belichick and the Patriots like currently versus what they used to be still You know young quarterback playing the Patriots usually that goes horrifically. So there was no efficiency. No moving the ball for the Colts I Wouldn't be completely out on him if we didn't get JT, but I would still need the salary to be like 62 at most or something like that because there's a lot of downside They're facing the Raiders next week and like the Raiders suck. So does that influence anything for you or no? it does I mean it you have to wait like What's a 90% first half snap rate mean versus someone who got a bit, you know banged up I guess we'll learn a lot about practice reports. All this might be moot if JT plays but Well, it's not a curiosity. What's sorry JT? Hypothetically Jonathan probably didn't move it's 7,000 Kind of hope he gets in a full practice by Friday because if we get JT at 7,000, I know he's been bad, but against this defense D and Dion at 55 would you go back there if there were no JT? I would go back there, but I would lower his median expectation because There's a possibility that his role is not as like I'd also I also want to see his practice reports are because I think he'll be out I don't think he's in a practice to Wednesday based on what happened So we'll keep an eye on that like he came back in like you mentioned this on slack But the first play he came back in he missed a block and gave up a sack So I don't know if he was really healthy. I don't think you should be back in there Honestly, I was happy he was because I had in my teams, but maybe maybe it's it out for a bit Jamal Williams You can see speaking of sitting out. I'm not reading what you wrote here You wrote down the note for this one. You said he could be a viable play for DFS. No, I'm not using Jamal Williams How how dare you put these if the entry swift is effectively playing 15% percent of snaps. I don't care I'm not using Jamal Williams Jamal Williams played a 63% snap rate Swift 16% Justin Jackson 21% snap rate for carries looks a little juicy on those as well Williams 24 carries no targets 5 at 11 red zone chances. I'd rather get punched in the throat than use Jamal Williams Is he a consideration for you? If the salaries right What's the salary against the Bears? If it's like 7,000, it's an awful salary for a guy doesn't catch passes on a bad offense Her office is a bad offense now. It's worth 15 points against the Packers. They're so they're definitely great. Yeah, absolutely Okay Sure, he's 74 Awful just 68. It's makes my heart sad. I love the under swift. Yeah, I did too. I have a dinosaur league with him and breeze and uh Nobody nobody cares. I agree. They shouldn't but I'm sad. Um, I Would rather have a free square on my lineup than use Jamal Williams and 74 I'm on Ross St. Brown 6900 sick Love it brother game to next week. I'm just gonna keep on using when it's like we're into a corn cob Is it or is it revenge if you play your brother? Hmm good question. How did he do against the Packers when equanimous was on the Packers? Well, it's looking to the splits. This is the key data. You're looking for He had nine targets again. I have a note on that later on to like, you know, he he did have decent usage I feel like I'll be there again Personally, but 74 for Jamal is too high. I I know we want touchdowns, but I don't want just touchdowns If you like I said, if you were 7,000 or something I'd be more open to it. I need to be like 66 or so Personally, it's like a Damian Harris sort of situation. Not that yeah, exactly. Yeah, fully agree Miles Sanders role was decent in week nine better than it's been most of the year He played a 66% snap rate. He had 17 out of 22 running back carries including a goal on touchdown He had six out of 10 red zone carries as well Boston Scott had none none for Gretchen Wieners Do you see this as a reason to change of you as Sanders or was it more such as variants against a bad Texan steam? Um, I bump him up a smidge, but we never talk about my own Sanders. We never play my own Sanders Thankfully, they're not on the main slate. They play Monday night. So Don't really have to worry about it too much Um, I'd like I'll I'll enjoy getting another week of data to see if you know Sanders turns into like a 65 to 70 percent snap rate guy I don't expect that to stick but I think it was a One of the better mild Sanders games that you could have realistically envisioned. It's better than it has been I don't think it's a huge change But like it doesn't hurt You know, I'll take it um, but I just I just have a hard time getting to him when they still mix in the other guys a little bit more And I like especially because the salary is always kind of high like weirdly high Um, they are not on the main slate next week Because they will never be on the main slate again. I said that already jim. I know just wrapping it up Wrapping at the point. I listen to you Yeah, I always listen to you never have not listened to you Speaking to the Texans their target distribution without brandy cooks and Nico Collins was bad Philip Dorsett and Chris Moore both had five targets for a 24 share. Wolf Eight of the Texans saw one or two targets not enough for brevin jordan my guy. I'm sad Dorsett led with an 80 route rates. I didn't know that Philip Dorsett was still in the league until week eight Something I was like, ah, he's got a touchdown. Good to know Nico Collins didn't practice this past week cooks is back with the team. So Maybe gets a squeaky wheel narrative bump Though it seems more so like a trade me kind of bump Any interest in any Texan not named Damian Pierce? No, good. I agree. Jeff Wilson played more snaps in his dolphin's debut than our hemostert seems bad Wilson had a 20 played 27 snaps for 51 percent most dirt played 45 percent both guys had nine carries Wilson had more targets three versus most roots two Even though most had scored Wilson led in red zone chances five out of 11 compared to two opportunities for most dirt. So we've had most dirt Pre-trade as being like a guy we were returning to around like 7,000 around like 65 I think we just shoved them out of consideration now and I think that I'm more likely consider Wilson now than moster What about you? Yeah, more likely to consider Wilson than most dirt Which also hurts because I like most dirt, but I love Jeff Wilson too. Um, they're just sort of like Fun DFS guys that track whenever the situation's good The thing is like, yeah, it's sort of a split That that leaned toward Jeff Wilson, but it was Jeff Wilson's debut and that's relevant It could skew more towards him You don't bring in Jeff Wilson give him a bit of a majority With the intent to are you gonna try to be ahead of this because they get Cleveland next week And Cleveland's awful against the rush. Are you gonna try to be ahead of thing of a change for Wilson or do you Not think it's a good enough situation to try to be early It's really it's going to depend fully on which running backs run slate like if we have multiple You know guys who can really burn us for not using them. I can't justify Jeff Wilson Um and Wilson's salary. So name that salary I think he should probably be like 63 He's 65 So he just got what moisture was last week so, uh Looking at snaps by quarter Wilson Took over in the second half I don't know if they just ran a lot of plays because I didn't pull up his like quarter by quarter snap rate I just pulled up like his next gen stats like play log He played a lot in the third quarter and a lot in the fourth quarter I think it might have been like he was playing well and they decided to give him more I don't know if you have like his quarterly snap rates up, but I just have first half What was it there? um The jeff wilson 35 percent the first half most are at 60 percent and he finished with 50 So I think they just kind of featured him more and more as it went along kill another playbook better Second game. I think that I could see myself using jeff wilson 65 Who is the guy we were talking about before we're like, oh, would you rather use connor at 63 or wilson at 65? uh Wilson using a much better offense And he's in a better matchup. I think wilson by a pretty decent margin on it, honestly I would bet that I use jeff wilson next week. He can't be a core play can't be a cash gameplay because I don't know what the role will be but trying to get ahead of it in that matchup in this offense I think is a worthwhile endeavor at 65 specifically sure Sure, as in you don't agree or sure as in Sure, as in that's the best I can do is say Like it's better. I'll have some interest but not not a ton The bills still have a lot of dev in single terry because they were in a neutral game script ETS jets a jets despite the addition of naihim hines Single terry 74 snap rate james cook 23 hines seven percent Single terry eight out of 12 running back carries Um, he had five out of 10 running back targets. He was coming at seven and five and single terry at eight and five so and 74 snap rate versus 72. He's in the single terry zone. Um like Single terry's role got a little bit worse, but not a lot worse So he might keep the same role, but doesn't matter No, I think there are just more paths to his role getting worse if they get naihim hines more involved I will say that his salary is only 5600 and the idea of having zero interest and someone at a 5600 salary with the 70 plus percent snap rate on potentially the best offense in football is like Usually the stuff I dream of is getting a 5600 back with a 75 snap rate That's actually like the best offense. Yeah It's a it's a People may not understand this reference, but it's a kelsey.gif kind of situation. Um, I think that's what it is It's yeah, there's you're not getting a whole lot out of it Elijah Moore snap rate did increase this week. Oh boy Put he cuts their targets a lot of cardio for Elijah Moore Garrett Wilson continued to dominate for the jets He had nine out of 24 targets turned into 92 yards a second straight game with 90 or more So they're still run heavy. Cory Davis is not there too. And that's very noteworthy because zack wilson does like Cory Davis, but We typically reserve the etn scale for situations to monitor, you know, your level of interest in a guy tracking them, you know Okay, we're getting a little excited about this guy. Uh, how many etn's out of 10? Are you on Garrett wilson right now? I probably put it like a six and a half because we need we need value at receiver and Wilson's been a guy that I've been like considering for a few weeks in a row and he's doing it in you know against Against the offenses that aren't the most generous necessarily. So it's not just uh, because it was what new england last week and the bills this week um Love love that love the role That he's had and again, we need we need receivers in the low six thousand range So hopefully he doesn't get too bumped up We still have worries about touchdown expectations though and I don't want to write that off completely because this team's not going to score too many times, but um I'd probably say like 64 I could probably get there they're on a buy. Um I think around like if he were to stay around 58 like he was this week I'd be pretty interested because they get the they get the patriots again after the buy But then they finally face him like like because they're past three games against the teams Based on my numbers ranked first fourth and fifth defensively It's a really tough schedule. Let me get again after the buy But then they get a couple games easier and then the schedule the second half of the year opens up That could be pretty fun So I'm at six and a half ETNs as well on uh Garrett Wilson right now pretty excited and uh, Hopefully keeping him as a value play would be good for us PG walker got benched in the second half for baker mayfield on sunday Baker 155 yards and two touchdowns when it didn't matter Pure pure pure stinky garbage time. It was great Uh 20 attempts 0.62 passing net expected points per drop back He threw five times dj more and terrace marshal three times two running backs Do you have to form it in rakhine blackshear? 8 out 5.4 yards uh two out of 10 passes where at least 16 yards downfield Sam darnold is also apparently healthy and ready to return and they're expecting to play at some point the second half because sure Why not uh, what's your view of this offense if walker is no longer the quarterback? It's still don't care I want to like dj more and terrace marshal two of my favorite like receiver prospects that that there Have been in recent years I can get their identity formans first half snap rate plummeted from 76 percent last week to 47 percent this week They were down 35 at the house. Yeah, like it makes sense. You don't want to play guys. You can get scripted out Um, especially not in the first half because our team stinks. Yeah, so I mean dj more was 7 000 this week Are they on the main slate? No, I'm gonna be on bot. Yeah, they play the falcons Yeah Oh, that's that's thursday night. That's right. Yeah so It doesn't really impact us too much. I Think terrace marshal is kind of trending up but not to the point that it's like uh, Sure, no worthy. I agree. Okay. Let's dive into situations to monitor from this past week. What else do you notice when looking at uh usages? here this week You don't have too much, uh, we've been monitoring kyle pits his usage and it was good on week nine results just They're not always going to be there even if the targets are there He and drake london had seven targets, but neither Had even 30 yards. Um the volume and the efficiency are down Pits is always going to be over salary due to his potential and his perception and like his rostroid stuff all matters. So You know, we liked him a decent amount this week in the right lineups, but there the floor is Bad floor ceiling is also capped. Yeah Uh as isaac pacheco 45 first half snap rate this week It was under 30% in every game so far leading in He played nine snaps in the first series and I got so excited nine out of 13 And then they decided they couldn't run the football and they're like, oh, okay So we'll just go to jeric every play. Yeah, jeric had like a 64 percent route rate or something. He's in the single terry zone um Jerick or pacheco. Oh, no jerick doesn't or pacheco doesn't play snaps So you can't be in the single three zone But jerick jerick is so we can't use him I think if they were in a rush heavier script They would probably use pacheco quite a bit or if they were in a situation They thought they could run the ball like in a bad like if they're facing the packers I think pacheco a snap rate would be like Six it could push 60 maybe maybe I still think they'd slung it but It's it's like it's like three etns Three is probably correct Like we're still monitoring and we're not using him yet, but we're still monitoring him. Yeah, even if you get rid of clad edwards you error Which they kind of did But like like completely taken out of the equation um I don't know they're they're still a I think it's a matchup based thing because like they couldn't run on tennessee last night and tennessee's rush defense is very good So if when they face the chargers Bump pachecos Expected usage up maybe don't use him still like it might not be high enough to use him, but bump it up and bump mckinnon down So Neither of them are playable with any salary against the jags next week No, okay. I agree. I'm just yeah, I tried to check. I think for a second, but no um Antonio gibson led the the washington backfield with the 56 snap rate over brian robinson at 46 percent But actually gibson at a 71 percent first half snap rate um, the whole the whole backfield is dusty But especially brian robinson is um out for me Uh talked about dante foreman losing his role You don't love to see that um, but it happened uh, and then robbie anderson Got up and running a bit 85 percent route rate three targets for negative four yards This account is tard cardio if you're not like actually like running downfield like got two downfield targets Like in this offense can it be cardio if there are no downfield routes outside of deandre hopkins? I don't know I we covered we covered a lot of stuff Otherwise, so I'm using robbie ever. No, no, no, I just okay good Make it sure I think it does hurt like it might hurt rondale a little bit Their their roles aren't the same, but if he's on the field more and more rondale better No, because you want robbie out there because robbie can't earn targets So it's perfect. Okay play robbie more So that rondale gets more targets. It's great. This is then you want you want mbs on the field then? Yes I do send mbs to arizona and I think that'd be great Although that might be I don't know. Yeah. Yeah, send mbs to arizona. Let's do that Uh, probably not a huge thing, but josh jacob's role got a bit worse on sunday His snap rate was 68 percent outside of the blowout last week. That was his first time below 80 percent since week three 17 routes and 38 drop backs Not a huge concern, but I do think it does lower expectations on jacob's at least a little bit A little bit uncomfy that is what I would say 78 first half snap rate It's been living in like the 81 to 86 percent range the four games prior So a look like a smidge down but not as drastic. It's like 60 a makes it sound so Well, but they were in a neutral script in the second half. They're up 17 nothing In that game So I don't think that I think the full game snap rate is better than the first half snap rate in terms of representing Also, the ratas have blown two 17 point leads and I've had the opposing teams money line in both games So I love the raiders. I think they're great Uh, speaking of that game Travis etn's uh red zone role continues to be absurd He had seven out of 11 chances on sunday. He now has a 55 red zone share in the three games as the full lead back Really nice boost to his values. Also a stupid good player So we talked about kirk and zay jones next week named that sire for etn against the achieves 82 I like that. Uh, I think that's probably what I would have said as well before you said it Yeah, I was gonna say that I was gonna say 8002 I like it. Yeah, I have similar thoughts For me tn to kenneth walker. Uh, he had nine out of four red zone chances this or not out of 14 He had a 200 share what I legend He had nine out of 14 red zone chances this week Uh, he has a 50 red zone share in games without rashad penny And he also said a new season high with four targets this past week He's good They're playing in munich this week So they're not in the main slate but kenneth walker the third very good football player Let him for that loss a bit of ground to rashad white again this week this time though It's noteworthy because they were playing in a neutral script. We thought that lenny might be Uh, a guy who gets a lot of work in neutral scripts But uh, they was neutral this week and he lost work 60 snap rate nine carriers and seven targets for 60 yards He had three out of 11 red zone chances I kind of just think i'm out on lenny I'm not sure how high the odds are that he burns me right now. So I think I might just be out Yeah, I don't really think there's like the the mixing game lurking. Yeah, the the role's not the same. Yeah, I agree Uh, this might be irrelevant because of the offense, but gelani wood's hurt his shoulder against the patriots. Don't laugh Um, he didn't play the final quarter He had been since it's not some mo alley cocks. I'm not saying to seek out colt's past catchers I'm just noting it because I think gelani woods good. Anyway, uh, james robinson had a receiving touchdown and earned More work this week, but this back to the still want to avoid michael carter 52 percent snap rate 86 yards robinson a 40 snap rate sold some red zone work I am still out here until further notice your guide. No offense Had a huge reception and got a bit of a roll increase He ran a route on 22 of 36 drop backs I'm not sure if that was a direct response to marquis goodwin being out, but They did run more two tight end sets and phant ran 17 of his routes from either slot or out wide I am far more likely to consider him if goodwin misses more time So go ahead and glow to you on No, it required an injury to get there, but just saying and a flicky long. Yeah, I was definitely I was talking about no offense so much this week Didn't only it didn't just mention him last week when tight. I was terrible when we thought dk would miss No, we didn't think dk would miss because a certain reporter said the dk was going to sit which locked him that he was going to play So like we knew dk was going to play and there was no point considering phant at that time I have nothing to say about no phant Okay, cam acres is active, but who cares uh the ram's backfields still irrelevant daryl henderson 49 snap rates I need more than that in a bad offense hard pass on that team still Let's go now to philosophical changes. You mentioned the packers early on as being a team You're going to note here. What did you see if nummon elsewhere this week? Yeah, so green bay. We knew was really really run heavy against the bills that did not stick that tendency in week nine Packers went from a minus 15.4 percent pass rate over expectation to a plus 4.5 percent this week And the first half in particular it was plus 10.4 percent They haven't been the most pass every team all season, but it was clear that they're not just going to run the ball That was just uh, they're not going to be the bears We're not we're not going to get two bears teams in the same division, I think that's clear Uh, houston not relevant as we've learned uh aside from uh pierce But it's important to know for me I try to be sensitive to like when a team actively tries to ruin games and houston might be trying to do that They had a pass rate over expectation of minus 17 percent as huge underdogs on thursday night The eagles overcame it with some efficiency and scored 29 points But had similar play volume than normal again Just want to be sensitive to stuff like that when teams actively try to ruin games And they should they should try to have fewer plays and control the the clock as much as they can but That's tough and then somewhat similarly like a team that's not Super dfs relevant, but the patreons are playing faster recently. They're fifth and adjusted pace by my numbers over the past three games however If you're fast and bad it doesn't lead to more plays um, so There's still about average in terms of place for a game in that sample, but it's no help their opponents Yeah, so like it helped didn't help say an elgar this week, but like, you know, it does in theory help their opponents So yeah, but and it's a three-week sample where things have been a little bit different. So you know, maybe it's I don't know why they're playing faster. I don't know but again Pace matters in terms of seconds per play, but it also matters in terms of like Place run but hey get if you get the patreons out the field faster their offense that can actually maybe help though Yeah, I think that that works as well. Okay. Let's go to our salary scroll now opening up the week 10 main slate Over on vandal.com and going position by position shouting out salaries that are noteworthy to us Starting off at quarterback. What do you see there brandon? lots of Studs and or rushing quarterbacks or both or both Josh Allen, Mahomes, Justin Fields, Tua, and Kyler are the top five I think the first one that stands out to me. No, I probably shouldn't Deck press got stood out to me, but then I realized that the Packers he is probably gonna stink So it's not about deck. It's about his opponent. I saw that too again they're not as As bad as maybe weak a made it sound the Packers that is in terms of I think more so I was talking about pace Sorry, I should have clarified Gotcha. They dragged things down there Yeah, Dak had sort of like a classic Russell Wilson game um Before the buy with just 27 attempts, but 250 yards to touchdowns some rushing and a rushing touchdown like I'd be tempted but it's going to be hard to gloss over Josh Allen um, Mahomes Like I'm not out on Justin Fields, but it's going to be hard to play Justin Fields over Mahomes I think I don't know if that's against that team though. It might be It's more defensible I think I'd rather go Mahomes, but It is nice to have upside a quarterback again this week Allen has it against Minnesota. Mahomes has it Fields has it Tua against Cleveland probably has it too Tua has not been good against rushing quarterbacks. Miami was has been terrible. Um, again, I noted that in my Come on number fire for any no big deal, you know But also Kelly Berset is a higher salary than Matthew Stafford and Aaron Rodgers Just gonna throw that out there for some reason Yeah, I think that it's probably a week we want to stay in the 8000 range of quarterback Based on what I'm seeing below seven below 8000. I think we're probably gonna want to stay above Yeah Kyler was decent but not great Yeah, it was a repeats divisional matchup. Yeah, um for the second time in like a couple weeks Oh, that's he did run eight times in the rams again What they play the rams again. They haven't played the rams yet this year, have they? Yeah Oh, yeah, they played them week three. Just kidding Yeah, I think that it's more so like Kyler. It's good to know for down the line Maybe he's more viable now than it was before but yeah, I think it's an 8000 or higher week at quarterback Uh, let's go to your running back. Seyquan gets the Titans. So is he going for 200 or 250? What do you what are you? Texans Sorry Texans, look what I meant my bad 200 or 250. What do you pick? Uh 225 rushing another 75 receiving. Okay, fair enough. Uh, seyquan is 95 his salary and I get it Yeah Derek Henry 94 Against the Broncos probably won't get there Denver coming off a buy but probably have some answers. I can't get off Dalvid 75 Like that's just such a good salary for his workload. I know I know the matchup stinks, but like Huh, he's facing Buffalo 75 like for his workload is really really good So A lot of this season has gone the way of the 7000 running back tier Like And there's not a lot there this week and I don't necessarily mean like there are names that are appealing But there just aren't many guys there. Yeah, physically. Yeah, damien pierce is 77 dalvin 75 jamal williams oversaltered at 74 for the both of us erin jones might not even play 72 tony pollard Uh, jonathan taylor 7 000 same as deacon a j dillon and those all those those forenames are all contingent on injuries The scene the lack of goodness in the 7 000 range increase your Your view of a j dillon at all or no? It it does Yeah I still don't feel great about it. But like he You know It is what it is I think it increases my view of jeff wilson a bit too Yeah, david munk covering against the lions not drawing any attention is it's pretty telling but He's still playing about a 60 snap rate, but he's just not like yeah the role's not It could be worse I mean his role if you line up the snap rate and everything might be somewhat similar to like jeff wilson Yeah, I think he's the problem is he needs someone he needs like an 80 snap rate to be viable for dfs where he's getting about 60 percent yeah, so I think wilson at 65 is is like Probably pretty in play So what i'm really seeing is that running back is bad and very narrow yeah There's like james con or someone in consideration if we just want to Take the snaps jeff wilson is not perfect by any means um So maybe I need to prioritize voting around like sake one Yeah, not overlooking that because again, I would also say monitor the guys at seven thousand because that's dylan That's pollard That's jonathan taylor. Yeah, or maybe dian jackson 55. I don't know like I don't know that's that's a tough one for me Uh wide receiver. What do you see in there? Low absolutely loaded Three guys at nine thousand are higher with cooper cups. The font digs tirey kill Justin jeff wilson at 86 probably under salaried. However We don't have a lot of value at quarterback because we need the studs like primarily and We're gonna have a hard time getting value at running back as well. So Yeah That's tough The six thousand ranger receivers and outbacks even monorail st. Brown at 69 you have christian kirk at 68 lazard 67 All those guys released viable gave davis obviously like not he's not a cash game option and like you can have bad weeks but like I want guys who can mix in it like I want guys who can win me a week by themselves and davis is one of those guys And getting that for 65 is is is nice. So If you're hand building or if you're putting an optimizer you can put Caps on exposures to certain players put a cap on the exposure, but like I would still use him Yeah, I mean he has that ability. He's done it once this year But he did it twice in a one month span last year too I'm saying he did it once this year. He's maxed out at seven targets. Oh, no Oh, no Courtland Sutton is 62. Oh boy He's had 14 23 and 13 yards Past their games. I guess one of those is Brett ripping so Not as bad, but jeez just want to Jump back up before we go true value Similar thing with the 7000 range. We have four names with the seven in front of their salaries So like it's kind of setting up to force you into a stars and scrubs approach That actively changes the way that you can build lineups. Yeah Also, one of those is a mark cooper at 78 which What 78? Yeah, I'm surprised you just jumped right past it, but I did because I've not considered him as much as I should have this year Uh ron bale morris 58. He's had double digit targets a couple of times now recently He had 10 this game. That was his first game with the andre hopkins having 10 His a dot is still low But like he's at least getting targets um It's not the best role, but these He's at least worth mentioning a 58 against the rams Sure I'll have it all of interest than michael gallup at 57 once again. I agree. Maybe I need like the Self-exclude on gallup too. I don't think he's in the the mbs range as far as self-exclude yet, but he's he's flirting with it at least alan robinson salary salary adjustment from 7000 to 5700 after his five target 24 yard game Well, that's uh his That's his fifth highest year fourth highest yardage. I'll put this here Wando robinson 56. I don't know if his role is going to improve after the buy and without cadarius tony like It's on the team at all Zay jones at 55 is looking better and better and better Yeah yikes Zay jones might wind up being a core play for me, which is Frightening Um, I'll say this due to the lack of Confident plays in the 6000 range at running back And like a pretty solid 6000 ranger receiver before a big drop off It Could be a flexor receiver kind of weak. Okay Yeah, I always agree uh Summary torey of the packers If there's no dobs, um, he said four targets and back-to-back games now could have one less guy involved there 37 and 34 yards made a pretty nice play downfield on a deep throw from rogers In that game I'm not like on last week too. Yeah, I'm not like saying. Oh, yeah pound the table for him But I'm saying like look into his usage during this week is what I would say for torey Um and dig in say like, okay, there's something we can Buy into there and maybe consider him Um at $5,000 I don't I did not know kevin white was still on the league I Added him in a dynasty like this week because I had like 16,000 players on buy. So I I only knew because of that Okay tight end Uh, kelsey is 85 and then it drops down to tason hill at 65 Which I think makes tg hawkinson at 6000 pretty fun. Also greg dulcich is back. He's 59 But I think that's an appropriate salary Although it's weird with him at 59 and sudden at 62 it is off-putting It sure is um Yikes That end is weird Like the gradient on the salary says odd What are you seeing there anything else standing out to you? I'm I'm trying It feels like it goes from Obviously yep It could be a week where we try to prioritize kelsey which feels really hard to do Based on the landscape at receiver running back It might be impossible honestly and quarterback if I play kelsey It's gonna be because I'm playing like four mid-tier receivers in like the six to low seven thousand range Yeah, because we don't have another one. Is it running back? Yeah Like foster moro's role was not good I guess maybe col comet He scored three times the past two weeks though. He hadn't scored since 2020 before that right He hasn't had more than 45 yards yet this year. It's like that feels like a trap. Yeah, it does Dolphin sheltered at 55 like he can't stay healthy, but he's had a buy now He had seven targets against the bears for 74 yards That could be Not nothing. I also have fry me. I we don't like that office, but I was looking at him He said seven and nine targets seven nine two nine the past four games for him. He's got some yardage upside He does No, no clay pool. I guess too I know that he's not been no, that's true. Super relevant, but hickins Pickins was like 56. Okay Yeah, 56. I'm actually seeking that out. It's not terrible so We have some guys well to dig into I think that we're gonna have to use some under salary guys and bad matchups like dalv Because we'll probably need the salary savings this week at tight at uh To in order to spend a bit quarterback in order to Not dumpster dive in some other spots. I think we're gonna have to use some Guys in bad matchups this week just to get the savings relative to their production Do you think we'll get tan and ill back? Chicks 44 I don't care. Okay I'm trying. Yeah, I'm trying. I appreciate the effort, but no not Also people People worked themselves into a tizzy about the lion's tight end situation this week and then everyone except for brock rye caught a touchdown um james michael had one uh, shane zillstra had one just Stone you don't need to use the backup to the tight and just bump up a monra st. Brown. It's okay um, okay A note to future me after having broken down week number nine and taking a look forward week number 10 What are you noting for yourself? That I still love dfs even though this plate's gonna be a bit of a I gotta remember that um, I think it could be fun if we get good injury news Like if zeke decides to sit one more week if we get Jt Back and good or if we get no jt and d on jackson's the full practice all week Those could be okay. So there are routes to it being a good slate. We just have to see how things play out throughout the week I think for me it's don't Assume that flexing or running back is the best play this week. I agree of that as well digging into all the receivers digging into that You know trying to identify guys I would say that no To future me is try to identify guys who have a mix in within the range of outcomes, you know who who has been Who hasn't shown upside yet this year? But has the building blocks for within their within their set? I think that that's what I want to do is try to identify guys who have the building blocks for upside But I haven't shown you yet this year at dalf. Like I think that that's That's what I want to do throughout this week is try to identify guys who can do that for us And I think there are guys on next week's slate and we'll see how their production winds up That is all that we have here for our week nine nfl recap But we're back with you on thursday once again to preview Week number 10 breakdown game stacks priority plays and much more get that Live at 10 a.m. Eastern on the fan dual youtube page also up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed Immediately after that so go search for that search for the fan dual youtube page is described there hit the like button as well We appreciate those you're watching right now over on the fancy youtube page as always And also hit subscribe on the number fire daily fantasy podcasting wherever you get your podcast Brandon if people have questions for you on twitter, where can they find you there? I'm on twitter at goodwill 13 gdu la 13 and I am on twitter at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in and good luck to you with your monday night dfs linus We'll talk to you once again thursday to preview week number 10. This has been the heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire