 Welcome to Tickmail Weekly Market Outlook for week commencing the 30th of March with me, Patrick Munley. Although markets have calmed slightly following the volatility since the outbreak of COVID-19, uncertainty remains as the pandemic intensifies across Europe and North America. As has become apparent in recent weeks, the escalation of emergency government measures will have a lasting impact on the economy. The second quarter, likely to be its heart. Giving an insight into labour force conditions, the publication of Friday's non-farm payrolls for March may give greater colour as to the effects of shutdowns and lower demand have impacted the wider economy. The release of flash PMI data signalled the stark impact the outbreak of COVID-19 had already had on the US economy. The service sector was dented further as the contraction accelerated to a March rate. Meanwhile, goods producers indicated the fastest fall in output since the deaths of the global financial crisis in August 2009. The publication of final PMI data from IHS market will give greater insight into the impact of emergency measures in response to the outbreak of COVID-19 on the wider economy in the final month of the first quarter. Traders will eye payroll figures after data from the Labour Department showed a surge in weekly jobless claims. Non-farm payrolls are expected to contract in March as the impact of shutdowns and extremely challenging demand conditions hit the workforce. According to the flash PMI data for the final month of the first quarter, staffing levels will fall solidly amid a sharp reduction of private sector demand and business activity. Other key US data includes updates to regional surveys such as Dallas Fed Manufacturing Index, Chicago PMI alongside factory orders, ADP employment and ISIM PMI data. From a technical perspective, the dollar index has failed to regain the 2017 highs and we have since seen what looks like an impulsive pullback from that test of the 103 area. As such, what I'm looking for early in the week is a corrected phase to set up with the dollar looking to retest a minimum of the 100.63 level and probably up to the 101 area where I'd be looking for key reversal patterns to set up and at least another leg of corrected downside timing down to 97.9650 and that's where the market will make a decision as to the next phase of price action. Whilst we're talking about the dollar, let's check in with gold. Gold continued to grind higher this week, gaining after the various passage of the stimulus bill. What we're looking for now is for gold to make another high probably up to this 1680 area and then what I'll be looking for is a symmetry of swing correction back down into the 1560-1580 area and from there what I'll be looking for are bullish reversal patterns to set long positions, targeting a retest of the prior highs at 1702 and likely on route to 1760-1780 area. Developments in the global coronavirus pandemic with the epicenter now in Europe remain a key focus from an economic perspective in the coming week as the first quarter draws to a close. The continued escalation of the infection rate coupled with extreme public health measures such as lockdowns and border closures suggest that the spillover into the second quarter is going to be significant in the Eurozone. PMI data for Italy and Spain, the two countries which at this time have the largest outbreaks in Europe will be released for March as will other parts of Europe. Helping to ascertain how widespread the negative economic impact has been across the continent. Most official data releases being lagging indicators are unable to provide any meaningful forward looking insight, although unemployment data for Germany in March and preliminary inflation figures across the Eurozone will draw scrutiny. From a technical perspective the Eurodollar is currently correcting against the decline that we witnessed in March from the beginning of March. What I'm now looking for is the current impulse leg that we've witnessed into the back end of last week. We'll actually see some corrective price action now and I'll be looking for a move back down to test into the 10850 area. From here I'll be looking for bullish reversal patterns to set long positions, ultimately targeting a move up to this 113 as the next upside objective. In the UK, the government and the Bank of England have pledged to do more if necessary, but policy makers will be actively implementing various schemes already announced, including this week's support for all this self-employed and watching how these measures impact the economy. The BOE left policy settings after its recent actions including cutting the bank rate to a record 0.1%. The main highlight next week in the UK economic calendar will be more March survey releases to provide a timely gauge of economic sentiments. Lloyd's business barometer and the GFK consumer confidence will both be released on Tuesday with forecasters expecting a fall in the GFK to minus 11 from minus 7. Final readings of March manufacturing services PMI will be released Wednesday and Friday with responses included from later in the month. We may see downward revisions to the manufacturing PMI and to the services PMI. From a technical perspective, the sterling dollar has put in what looks like an impulse move off the 114 low. What I'll be looking for now is a corrected phase to develop early to midweek, ultimately testing back into this 118, 119 area. Once again, I'll be looking for bullish reversal patterns to set long positions, certainly targeting move up to test this 125, 70 and as high as 128 as the next decision point for the market. For Canada, the Nano Spoonberg confidence survey for March 27th will be reported on Monday. January GDP is reported Tuesday, market manufacturing PMI numbers for March are released Wednesday and international trade data will be published on Thursday. From a technical perspective, I'm looking for the loony to correct against this current 139 low. I'm looking for a move up as a symmetry swing here to target into this 143 area where once again I'll be expecting sellers to re-emerge. So, I'll be looking for bearish reversal patterns to set short positions, targeting a minimum retest of the price swing lows, but ultimately looking down into this 138, 137 area. In Australia, the focus will be on Wednesday's RBA minutes from the ad hoc meeting that was held on March 18th. We also get March AIG PMI, which is expected to be registering near a five-year loan. Weak orders, droughts and bushfires are likely to impact the manufacturing sector significantly. We also get March CoreLogic Home Value Index uptrends, continued pre-shutdowns, but the pace of growth is likely using significantly. With February dwelling approvals, seeing disruptions, obviously from the bushfires and COVID-19, and we could see further falls in that data. From a technical perspective, I'm looking for the Australian Dollar to correct lower, certainly down to potentially test this 59 area where I would be looking for bullish reversal patterns to set long positions, ultimately targeting a move up to the 64 level. If we fail to find support at the 59, we don't get any price confirmation there. I look for a deeper pullback to retest the 5660 area, but once again after the deep corrective move, we could see another leg higher here, ultimately still targeting a test of the 64 level. Obviously a break below this 5650 will be a very bearish development, and we'd expect to retest of the marshmallows at 54.98. In Japan, Tuesday's February industrial production is expected to remain subdued, as any bounce and activity is likely to take some time to manifest. Wednesday's Q1 tankan survey of large manufacturing index is expected to show Japan's corporates to be highly cautious over their outlook. From a technical perspective, the Donnie-Yen has broken down if we can hold support here at this 10760 area. I look for a corrective move up into this 10950, 110 area where again I'd be looking for bearish reversal patterns in this area to set short positions, ultimately targeting a move back down to 106 or 10550. That concludes the weekly market outlook for weak commencing March 30th.