 Hello and welcome to CMC Markets on Tuesday the 16th of February and the weekly market update. Seen a significant bounce back here in equity markets over the past two to three days. Welcome respite to all those bulls who've been wiped out over the past two to three weeks. We've bounced off some key support levels on the S&P 500. We have actually made new lows on the German DAX, broken below the 200 week moving average. Certainly potential for further losses there. We are experiencing a little bit of a rebound though in equity markets and that might have further to go. Certainly we've seen a lot of dovish talk from Mario Draghi, President of the European Central Bank. We've also seen a bit of a coalition of OPEC and non-OPEC oil producers come together and agree to freeze output at January levels for crude oil and that does appear to have stabilised oil prices to a greater or lesser extent and even though we've posted a marginal new low on US oil prices we weren't able to do the same on Brent and that does appear to suggest that maybe there is a potential base in the oil price if you then also buy into the narrative that potentially the dollar has topped out. Now I think the key focus for this week will be on the FOMC minutes. Certainly this week's dovish rhetoric from Mario Draghi has also helped in some respects but I think the events of the past two weeks I think have changed the game with how markets perceive central banks and I think that is going to drive sentiment quite significantly over the course of the next few sessions. So while I think we could see a significant, maybe we could see a bit of a rebound in equity markets I think it could well be temporary unless central banks somehow regain the confidence of the markets because from where I'm sitting negative rates simply won't do it and I think in essence they're going to make it that much more difficult for European banks to repair their balance sheets. We're going to make a start on the S&P 500 weekly chart and as you can see from this chart in front of you right now, significant area of support around about 1800 we're also still above the 200 week moving average and we are also still above the trend line support from the 2009 lows. So certainly there's a significant trifecta of support on the S&P as we can see from the previous lows at around about the 1800 level we have very long shadows on the weekly candles which suggests I think a reluctance on the part of the market to push the index significantly below this level but I think what we can safely surmise is that if we do get a break of these very key significant support levels we could well see further losses and in the context of where we've come from we haven't really seen that much of a correction. So the potential is there certainly for further losses on a break below these key supports but in the interim for the moment big big support around about 1800 it's going to be very very difficult to crack. I'm going to move on to dolly again now I covered this last week and I talked about the potential for a big move lower we've broken that key 116 level and if we look at this long term chart in front of you can see in the context of where we've come from in 2011 when we were trading at 75 we peaked at 125 I think the likelihood is irrespective of what the Bank of Japan do with negative rates and irrespective of what the Federal Reserve do and I think it's likely they're going to row back on the potential for any further tightening of monetary policy I think dolly again could well actually push quite a bit lower we've closed below 116 I think as long as we stay below 116 then potential is for a move to 110 and potentially to 106 over the course of the next 12 months and even if we move back to 106 that's only a 38.2% retracement of the entire up move from the 2011 lows to the 2012 highs so there's certainly potential for a lot more downside so I'm going to finish up with a quick look at crude oil and the rebound that we've seen in the past few days has run into a bit of a brick wall certainly if we look at the Brent price we can see that thus far the significant resistance at those late January peaks around about $35.80 so around about $36 that's going to be a key barrier for any further gains in Brent crude and if we actually look at the Brent crude price we can actually see that the dip down that we saw from those January highs actually fell considerably short of the lows that we saw in January in contrast to what we saw on US crude which is the chart I'm going to show you now this is again a daily chart for WTI we made a marginal new low but we posted a daily hammer we then posted a significantly positive green candle which suggests that potentially we could well see a little bit of a base down there because we weren't we weren't able to sustain a new low but once again it's those key resistance levels around about the January peaks or the impulse peaks from the initial move lower that are going to be the key resistance level for any gains going forward and I think the dollar could have a big part to play in this if the dollar continues to weaken then that could well actually help support the crude price so that's it for this week once again thanks very much for listening this is Michael Houston talking to you from CMC Marcus