 This is covering the spread part of the fan dual podcast network We go from watching Patrick Mahomes Heroics to end off a Sunday night football to watching Lamar Jackson with nothing around him facing off with the Saints for tonight on Monday night Football we're gonna break down that game from a vetting perspective Get you ready for the Ravens at the Saints with Ryan Williams and hopefully win you some cash close out week number nine This is covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Sonness. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire calm joined here once again by a Ryan Williams Check him out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W Ryan I feel like I don't have to ask you how you're doing because Justin Fields Looking pretty sick and as a bears fay and I feel like you got to be on cloud nine today Hey, that's that's all we can ask for I mean they were on the up and up here We got the franchise quarterback game changer and we talked about this a couple weeks ago Jim like they just needed to design runs for him and I'm happy to see that they do so you love to see that I Mean for me as a bears fan You love to see us turning in the right direction where we're able to right the wrongs, you know So many times we've been you know stuck in the stuck in the ground in our ways Whether it was you know Mark trustman or John Fox or Matt Nagy and you know, excuse me why I throw up But you know this this regime with Lou Getze, you know, I really think that they took things to heart Took some time off and really just figured out what works for this kid And you see it out there and this dude's a gamer like we saw that at Ohio State But you know so to adjust but I mean we saw this with Josh Allen We saw this with Lamar Jackson and you know, maybe we don't crown him in that regard yet But you can see the writing on the wall and that just feels great for a bears fan You know, we keep losing games. We'll get that better draft pick in the first round Maybe team them up with the former Ohio State running or a wide receiver in the draft They get get some offensive line help and skies the limit in 2023. I feel like yeah My wife is from the Chicago suburb so she asked me how the bears did and I like it's like Oh, yeah, Justin Fields broke the record from those rushing yards in Regular regular season game for a quarterback like he played great and it was super encouraging They lost but like it was like I had like included at the end because it was also exciting like he played so well and like It was fun to watch like I was watch I was on Twitter and someone like was posting a clip of him doing like this six grand I was like that was like his third best scramble of the game Like that wasn't even top two from the like that you're talking about the design runs like his his touchdown I don't think was a design run the 61 yard or was like There was like chaos all around him. He got out of some trouble kept on going So it was delight to watch if we can have more fun quarterback play. I'm never gonna be mad about that Yeah, and some things you just can't teach right like I mean how many times I'm third and seven third and long This guy is back there dead to rights with the sack and he does that spin move which is gonna be patented pretty soon Looks like Alan Iverson out there when he Then he just picked off and the he's just so fast I don't think we saw that speed last year to start this season and all of a sudden he said in the second year Which which is great, and I know that you know not to beat a dead horses We're talking about the Monday day football game here, but I know they say there's no moral victories But that is totally out of the window when you're talking about the Chicago Bears Like if you can have a franchise quarterback like that We can go through two years of growing pains for what the future looks like this team was not expected to do anything this year Their win total was at six and a half five and a half for some places So we're just riding the wave right now and build on for 23 Hey fun football and a better draft pick couldn't ask for much better than that We're gonna break down as Ryan said the Ravens at the Saints for today to get you set for that one breaking down Traditional markets and the player props over at Fan Duel Sportsbook We'll do that in just one second But first a reminder to make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We of course are an Apple podcast Spotify Stitcher Google podcast Amazon wherever you find your podcast you can find us Just search for covering the spread hit subscribe and if you like what you hear leave us a rating and review as well Also up on the Fandall YouTube page each day after the fact now is the perfect time to download Fandall America's number one sportsbook because right now new customers get a no sweat first bet up to $1,000 that's free bets back if your first bet doesn't win Try out features like same-game parlays play your way and bet on more than just the final score We've drawn everything from touchdowns to the yards and catches all in an app that's safe secure and super easy to use So sign up today for your first no sweat first bet Make every moment more this season with Fandall official sportsbook partner of the NFL must be 21 plus and president select states First online real money wager only refund issue is not on the trouble-free bets that expire in 14 days Restrictions apply state terms at sportsbook.fandall.com gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit fandall.com slash RG and Arizona 1-800 next step or text next step to 5334 2 in Connecticut 1-888-789-7777 or visit ccpg.org slash chat in Indiana 1-809 with it in Kansas NY only 105 to 2 40 is 100 and in Kansas KS gambling health comm in Louisiana 1877 770 stop in New York 1 877 a hopin wire text open Y in Tennessee call the red line at 1 889 9789 let's shift our focus now to this Ravens at the same scheme or right now We got the Ravens as one and a half point favorites total is 46 now We'll break down those markets here in a second but Ryan first I want your overall thoughts on this game Ravens at Saints where the Ravens coming into this game super super banged up Yeah, I think though the only thing that's the saving grace for Baltimore coming into this game as you look at the Saints and they're dealing with their own multitude of injuries right on the offensive side and the defensive side I believe too almost with some pieces banged up. So You know for the Ravens here for me, it's gonna be it's gonna come down to the fourth quarter I mean this team has absolutely and we've seen it with a lot of good teams I think the Rams are really bad in the fourth We saw the Titans last night on Sunday night football their numbers aren't great in the in the Ravens are the same way They have you know gone out to early leads here through the first three quarters And then they just let teams back in the game because they can't do anything. So I think the Saints are Actually one of the best offensive teams when it comes to the fourth quarter as well, too So this is gonna be really huge. I think, you know, the books are getting the line right at opened at one Ravens favored by one now it's one and a half I know it was better up to two and a half but because of the injuries and everything that the Ravens are experiencing the number one back down. So This this is one where you know, you kind of do the heart versus the head, right? And and Baltimore's actually had some success Going against the Saints. I believe they're five and two all time against this team And they're actually two and oh in New Orleans against this team as well, too So they have a little trend working with them in their favor You know it if you do like the Raven side I think I'm gonna tend to lean the over in this matchup too because the Saints have you know They they found some offensive strides here being able to put up 24 points in every Andy Dalton start We're expecting to see him again But the defense has also allowed 20 plus points to opposing teams in every game So if we like, you know the Saints to be able to put up some points here in this game Ravens to win. I think I actually like the over here Yeah Oh, the total is a 46 and a half right now over at Fandall Sportsbook And I want to keep an eye on the money line in this game I think that's the key thing for me is keeping tabs there because I'm not gonna get to the spread in this game I want to see if we continue to see movement towards the Saints because I've got the Ravens win-offs at 53.8% right now and that's that's including the Mark Andrews injury that includes No, we're shot Bateman and stuff like that So if we continue to see movement in New Orleans favor and we can get that across 110 and get it to like Minus 107 minus 105 you honestly minus 110. I might take the Ravens money line there I am not seeing enough value right now with the money line being minus 120 I want a little bit more leeway to get myself margin for error to be wrong on my read on this team given all the injuries they've got so As we get closer to kick off maybe Travis Lander gets announced and something like that And that does if that moves stuff towards the Saints I could see myself buying to the Ravens if it doesn't get to 110 I'm probably just gonna stay away and be content to enjoy some football as opposed to Sweating out that money line like I just wet the bucks last night So I want to see where it goes right now that I think that's the one place I could see myself getting into is potentially the Ravens money line if we get it at 110 or better Yeah, no, I I think that makes you know a good call and even if you want to look at some just because of how Exciting they've been and how explosive they've been to start games Like if you want to look at Ravens first half numbers when those get posted, I think that's an interesting lean as well, too But but yeah, we're hoping for we're hoping for fireworks in this game Even without the key pieces. We've seen this with the Ravens, you know a lot of the time And I think that's why the line has only moved a little bit because I mean Mark Andrews is great I I don't want to say anything about him and what he means to this offense But like, you know, they're gonna throw out likely there It's not even that great of a matchup for tight end, which we'll talk about later I imagine but still with like even without Bateman who hasn't really been healthy at all since week one or two It feels like they still have other pieces to kind of make things go on offense So as long as Lamar's in there, we can expect lots more to do some of the same things So let's talk about those remaining pieces here. The Ravens are missing Mark Andrews for shot Bateman Gus Edwards will be he's doubtful for today as well So that could open up some stuff on the Raven side in addition to the fact that it could just lower their offense overall So when we take those pieces out of the equation any props standing out for you on the Raven side of things Yeah, I mean especially the Gus Edwards one because he came back in and just you know Looked actually absolutely explosive and we know that the Ravens are still only giving the running backs limited work Right these are guys that are gonna see 20 touches But Gus Edwards through his career has been, you know, a great kind of guards for Kerry guy without him being there and without the goal line Back opportunities for him. I do like Lamar Anytime touchdown, which is at around plus 145 I believe is what I saw it on the Fandall sportsbook That that's just such a great number for him when I get into the red zone You know, I think that people think it'll be, you know, Kenyan Drake or things like that And you hope that the run game could be going a little bit because they're just apt to you know run an RPO And let Lamar kind of figure it out himself and anytime we can get that number, you know, almost one and a half Plus one and a half there. I got it. I got a look at that I'm also interested as well just because in the grand scheme of things. I know the Saints The Saints actually have allowed a couple rushing touchdowns already this year Which is, you know, they're better on paper than they actually have been with their stats, but I still think they've been Trying to be better on their run defense. And so Lamar Jackson passing as well I think is interesting over one and a half passing touchdowns. You're getting at plus money there We've seen him, you know Be able to find the likes of guys like likely and they've tried to throw the James crochet and Devin Duverney is there So if they are, you know, able to hold them kind of in the red zone and get them into some second and long Third and longs there. We could see Lamar passing a little bit more in the red zone So I like getting this passing touchdowns too. Yeah, the anytime touchdown one is as you mentioned plus 145 The over one and a half passing touchdowns is plus 108 right now at Fandle Sports We can get both those as of right now for Lamar. I did want to look at Justice Hill props given that there is one less guy in the backfield, but there aren't any right now I've checked a couple books. I've not found any Justice Hill props as of now Because Kenny and Drake will likely be the lead back for this team But as you mentioned, they don't like to make one guy be kind of the primary option here So Justice Hill 21% snap rate last week. That was a game after he had a pretty crucial mistake I think that was in week seven where he had a really bad fun Yeah week seven really bad fumble there and I thought that he might get totally phased out But still a 21% snap rate there had four carries no targets But if you can get like a super low number on Justice Hill once it once it opens I think he'll be involved Fortunately, I do not expect this to be a full Kenny and Drake kind of game I'd like that for one dinosaur team where I accidentally hadn't on a roster still But I think we could see some Justice Hill sprinkled in there So once slash if Justice Hill props wind up going up I'd probably at least give them a look because I think he'll be involved in some way I don't think it'll be you know, just Ken and Drake here I don't think Mike Davis gonna get a ton because it's Mike Davis. So I would check out Justice Hill numbers I did look at Isaiah likely You're not catching anybody sleeping here He's at 40 and a half receiving yards at some other spots like that's not a low number It's it's a fair number. I get it, but it's not where I'm looking to snag and over there by any means So I would check out Justice Hill once those numbers are up. Let's slip it over to this. Okay Yeah, I was just gonna say real quickly jump the other thing about Ken and Drake too is like he's very prominent in the receiving game So I'm looking at other books and like you're looking at his rushing and receiving prop being at 60 and a half But his receiving prop is only at 12 and a half Which is definitely this doesn't feel right right like we feel like we have an edge there a little bit 12 and a half it is it is on some books like juice to 120 But I still kind of like that and if you see some outlines to like I'd be willing to get it's like 15 or so Because that seems a little bit more reasonable. Yeah, Drake was firmly the passing game back last week four targets in that game Cottle four for only five yards, but like he was very involved in the passing game in that one Let's talk about the Saints here Jarvis Landry questionable heading into this game They will not have Michael Thomas definitively here. No Mark Ingram either The Mark Ingram absence last week did kind of open up things for Alvin Camaro a bit But I think he was probably gonna do that regardless So what's your read on the Saints here with no Thomas and no Ingram? Yeah, so, you know just back to some of the same I mean no Thomas and no Ingram. It's fire up Alvin Camaro any anywhere that you can The touch any time touchdown line at minus 110 on the fan bill sports book is absolutely I just don't understand it at all. It's my favorite bit of the game by a pretty wide margin Yeah, I mean that that is just like a hammer town I mean, you know again I hate to say locks and things that nature right because we got another guy in there that I want to talk about but But yeah, this just feels right if for some reason it doesn't it doesn't hit It's because you know, they gave Alvin Camaro all this work last week and he's used up And so we can't get the favorable but it's just the fair number I'm you're also looking at his rushing and receiving yard prop I believe around like one oh one oh five and a half one oh six possibly in some places the only Running back that I can see that has hit this number all season against this team is Nick Chubb So I think that's a that's a that's an interesting line there Against the Ravens the other thing to talk about is Taysum Hill and what we get him at Taysum Hill last week saw a Season high and in 10 carries We know that they love to use him all around the field doesn't matter You know, it doesn't matter who's starting like this guy This is why this guy has quarterback and tight and eligibility and some of your fantasy leagues We're interested in him time touchdown to I believe plus one six on the Fandall's workbook is where we have him It's probably not gonna come out on the lines But if we could get you know a rushing prop on him or maybe some carries prop I would be apt to look into them because outside of like you're saying Alvin Camero with these other guys like I'm not gonna fall into the Washington bucket or anything like that like it's gonna be the Alvin Camero and Taysum Hill show that they've shown us all year long Yeah, Taysum plus 170 for any time touchdown over a Fandall sportsbook right now So not a bad number there given the way he is he is not I agree that with no mark anger You could see him used even more Because they want another bruising type back and he kind of is that guy for the team right now going back to Camero The reason I loved the any time touchdown prop at minus 110 And that's my favorite bet of tonight's game is that he had the three touchdowns last week But that was actually the worst red zone role He's had in a while because he scored outside the red zone twice. He just he was very good. He played great Leading into that I think his red zone share on the season was like 41.8 percent. That's a very good number That's the kind you get like I'm like a top ish and running back is around 40% You'll get guys a 50% or system times, but 41% is a very good number So although it's frustrating to see Taysum Hill take away some goal line work from Camero That's a really good role still so when I opened it up with Camero coming off a Three touchdown game. I kind of thought we'd see him hovering closer to minus 130 or so for an anytime touchdown I was like, okay, cool. Like I'll check it I'm probably not gonna get there, but I'll check it. He's minus 110 at Fandle He's minus 125 at a lot of other books. I think I saw minus 105 at that MGM this morning So check around still, but he's shorter a lot of other places I think that is the best bet in this game Unless we get the Ravens money line to be minus one of seven ish or so I would buy in there But I think the Camero anytime touchdown Ryan I agree with you is like the best way to get exposure to this game right now Yeah, it just is not a normal number that we see for a lead back in an offense, you know in a In a game that's got a one and a half spread To it with pieces missing it just you know And I you know, I guess it's because of how the Saints kind of run their offense, right? Yeah, anybody have any given day which does frustrate them But the way that they've been giving Camero the ball like you're talking about in recent weeks is great We can't you know, let's not bury the lead here as I talked about Camero and taste milk Crystal Lave is an absolute stud like you can see why they wanted to get this guy On their roster here in the first round and sorry even the even the guys outside. I think are a little bit They're excited to bang in the table. They want the a lot of a props exactly So yeah, his prop is I'm looking at in some books. You know, you're looking at over receiving yards of 63 and a half This guy's not had under 50 since his week one performance and that was his first game ever in the NFL I think those are very interesting and especially when you're looking at the way that the deep ball has factored in with these two teams He has been, you know, absolutely one of the best when you're looking at passes 20 yards or more down the field And the Ravens are allowing the second most yards on pass attempts 20 plus yards down the field So, I mean Crystal Lave could be in a prime spot to just pop even when Jarvis Landry who's questionable We'll see if he's going to play it seemed it trended likely going into the weekend But obviously he hasn't played in a couple weeks. So we want to see that come to fruition first But I think any Crystal Lave props that you can get behind are absolutely great Baltimore is allowing the second most targets third most yards and receptions to wide receivers. So Smash spot for Crystal Lave and I think a lot is one of the guys where you could also consider the alternate markets We talked about that with was it Marquez Valdez scantling a couple weeks ago where they Have a path to explosions a path to eruptions because a lot of a like he he gets seven targets in a lot of games but he also has games where he gets like 14 and With the deep balls that you mentioned It's not just deep balls like he gets other stuff too But the deep balls given paths to having a bunch of yardage in a very short time span So if you want to dive in alternate markets for a lava He is a guy who can actually get there and do it in a pretty decent manner I wouldn't be looking to catch props because he's getting a lot of low percentage balls But yardage numbers like that yardage when you mentioned 63 and a half I think that's interesting But also alternate numbers on a lava very much in play for this week as far as touchdown props We did talk about Khmer we talked about Taysum Hill plus 170 in the Lamar touchdown a plus 145 I'm not seeing anything else. I did check out again Justice Hill for any time touchdown He's a plus 310. I believe right now 320 not quite long enough to give me to buy in to Shawn Jackson his debut is three to one I did look I didn't I'm not taking it But I did look anything else you want to mention there before we close up shop for today I can't believe I can't believe Fando sportsbook. We're gonna have to look into this three to one on just on Jackson Who hasn't seen action in 2022? Yeah, just baiting us just I did want to quickly talk about this guy for the New Orleans Saints Rashid Shahid He is plus 1100 anytime touchdown and that's all this guy does right like I'm watching these island games with the Saints and They they are just drawing up packages to get this dude in space and Dalton has hit him a couple times already this season So he's an interesting one, especially if we get Jarvis Landry ruled out I think that I might you know take a shot on that at you know 11 to one odds for him to score a touchdown when the pieces of who can score pretty limited I'm in this offense right like outside of those two main pieces. We talked about our three main pieces I guess when you factor in taste them held to Camara and Crystal Ave But they each week it feels like they've gotten him more plays and more involved into the office It's still in a limited fashion But you know when we're talking about you know anytime touchdowns and getting a good number If he's gonna be on the field, you know a quarter of the time I'm willing to take a shot at 11 to one Yeah, I mean and they seem like they've been getting his role increased a bit because I think they realize that he's kind of fun He is with a lot of teams You'll see them use gadget type guys to get like some a field stretcher in there like if the Rams had this guy He'd have an 80% snap rate because they have no juice With the Saints they don't need that because Chris Olavi has juice But they're I think they just kind of like him and I don't blame them. He's kind of fun So she heed is 11 to 1 to score touchdown at Bandual sports book I find that pretty interesting as well any other Props or things you want to mention from this game before we close up shop for today No, I think that's all I think I think it is a It feels like we only talked about a handful of good pieces in here And like that's what it seems like But these are two offenses that I think you know why I like the overs because they'll find ways to get Some of these other pieces involved like they will make it work Like we could see Marcus Callaway going out there without Jarvis Landry until you know get those targets on the other side You know James crochet and Tylen Wallace like they're just gonna find ways to get Guys the ball and just move down. They don't necessarily always rely on their main pieces to get things done So that's what makes it exciting for me and why I'm interested in getting the over here. No more quest Callaway tonight Let's let's give it all to Camara, please He can have his time next week. I just want to get that Camara anytime touchdown and we can be happy So Callaway next week, please that is all that we have here on covering the spread of forward today We'll be back once again tomorrow to break down and if a week number 10 get a first look at that and also recap Went down this past week another good week by Ryan So recap that on tomorrow show hope we can close it out on a good note for Monday night as well Get that by subscribing to the covering the spread podcast feed and the fan dual YouTube page Ryan I appreciate the time as always. Oh, good job again this week Good luck to you on Monday night to close out things and we'll talk to you once again Thursday for our week 10 full preview sounds good good luck to you my good friend and all our friends out there listening appreciate it Absolutely, that is Ryan Williams checking out on Twitter at Ryan Alexander underscore W I'm on Twitter at Jim Sonnis You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at fan dual podcast big Thank you to everyone for tuning in and good luck to you with your bets for Monday night football Let's get that Camara touchdown. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow to recap week number nine Look forward to week number ten. This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network