 It's time for the Lawn Jean Chronoscope, a television journal of the important issues of the hour brought to you every Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, a presentation of the Lawn Jean Wettner Watch Company, maker of Lawn Jean, the world's most honored watch, and Wettner Distinguished Companion to the World Honored Lawn Jean. Good evening. This is Frank Knight. May I introduce our co-editors for this edition of the Lawn Jean Chronoscope? From the CBS television news staff, Larry Lusser and Charles Collingwood. Our distinguished guest for this evening is April Harriman, formerly ambassador to Russia and Secretary of Commerce. Mr. Harriman, you've been so active in so many fields of endeavor. I'd just like to single out one of them. Now, right after the end of the big war, you were Secretary of Commerce. Do you care to tell us how you think the nation's economy looks to you right now? Well, we are certainly starting on a recession. You know, industrial production has dropped off about five percent in the last six months. Car loadings are off of ten or twelve percent as against last year, and unemployment is creeping up. And of course, there's an end to overtime and considered more part-time unemployment. Well, we've got to face the fact that we are in a recession at the present time from the peak. Do you agree with President Eisenhower that we can learn to avoid or try to avoid a boom and bust economy, sir? Yes, I certainly do. But I think there's a fundamental difference in the approach of the Democratic Party without an administration. It has been consistently since the end of the war, the policy of the Democratic Party to keep our economy stable and expanding. There's got to be a normal growth to be healthy. And we are increasing our population and increasing our labor force. And that has been successfully done, in spite of certain difficulties of inflation and otherwise. But now it seems to me that the administration is waiting to see what's going to happen and to talk about shock absorbers for a recession or a depression. And I think that's the wrong way to go about it. We ought to have affirmative policies to keep opportunities for the expansion of business of our country. And I think we can do it if we work together. I recall that right after the war, you counseled that we should expand our economy. Although people said we were going to have a depression right then, 48, 49. And we did expand it. And you think we should go ahead with such a policy now? Yes, we should. And matter of fact, in the last five years, we've added, taking on the basis of this year's prices, 80 billion dollars has been added to our total production in our country. Now, that's more than our entire federal budget, almost double our military expenditures. We can continue to do that. I believe if we follow the policies which make it possible for business to expand and for producers to expand and consume us to consume. Well, Mr. Harriman, if we are in a recession now, as one who has directed for mutual security had a good deal to do with the economics of our allies in Western Europe, what would be the effect of an economic decline in this country on our allies abroad? Well, I'm glad you mentioned that because that disturbed me very much. We can afford perhaps to have a little unfortunate situations here and adjust ourselves to it. But we had a slight recession, you know, in 49 as against 48. It was very slight. And yet our imports dropped very materially from some of the raw material producing countries as much as 40 percent over a six months period. I don't think it's going to be as bad as that, relatively as bad as that. But these countries are where their principal markets, you know, some of these countries have only one product to take Ecuador, Cocoa and Indonesia, rubber, that sort of thing. Falling off of demand from this country creates a major economic upheaval. And with that economic upheaval comes political instability. So that in order to achieve our political objectives of stability in the free world, we've got to pay more attention to those people that supply us with the raw materials that we need for our own prosperity and our own life, in fact. Well, isn't the economic state of our friends abroad somewhat better today than it was in 1949? Yes. And therefore, I don't think that the effect would be quite as startling as it was in 49. But fortunately, we got out of that recession rather rapidly. And I hope we will this one. But you do feel that we will have take Europe, the British, figuring that with the slight recession that some of the economists are talking about, it's in prospect that they may lose as much as 25 percent of their exports to this country. And that will have quite a dampening effect on the recovery, which had been going very healthily in them. You mean that a five or six percent drop in our own industrial output will be magnified in its effect on our friends abroad? Yes, it will be magnified, some of the countries think as much as five percent, I mean five times, in other words, five percent drop might mean 25 percent drop, but that may be somewhat too fearful, but it can well be three times. Mr. Hermann, why would a fake would that have on the economies of some of our more powerful allies like Britain, would that cause them then to devaluate their currency? No, I don't think so. I think in 49, it was one of the reasons for devaluation. They didn't stop buying, but they're in a stronger position now than they were, and the prices of raw materials are down more than they were at that time. But it will mean that they will have to perhaps slow up their expansion, which was going along a healthy way, and which helped them maintain their military establishments. You see, Britain has just gotten off rationing, I think you may realize that, after a dozen years, and they may have to go back to rationing again, you know? Well, Mr. Hermann. That would be a very bad psychological move, if I have to put it. I want to ask you a question regarding Russia now. I had many an interview with you in Russia during the war, and afterwards when you were ambassador to Moscow, you think that anything can be accomplished at this coming meeting of the foreign ministers of the four great powers in Berlin? Well, I'm not much of a prophet, but I'm very glad to see that we are going to have discussions again with the Russians. The Malenkovs administration has made certain rather fundamental changes within Russia itself, and it's conceivable, I don't say it's probable, but it's conceivable that he may have something that he wants to talk about. But I wouldn't want to predict, because so far we've seen nothing except gestures, nothing but a tactical change, no basic changes which indicate a readiness to settle the world problems. Do you feel that this time there is any possibility of coming to an agreement on some specific item, would say like Austria? Yes, I think there is a possibility. You know, that's an interesting question too, because some of the people ask me whether there's any use trying to make agreements with the Russians. Well, I say that there is when the agreements can be specific. Take Austria, you've mentioned that. If there is a peace treaty with Austria, where then the Russian troops, the Red Army and the American forces, the British and the French withdraw simultaneously, then Austria becomes free, it becomes a fait complet. And that is an agreement which is real and positive, but we haven't done it right to trust the Kremlin to carry out general agreements in good faith as we would attempt to do them. Mr. Herman, you had many meetings in the Kremlin with Stalin when he was alive. Do you see any specific changes in Russia following his death? Do you think there's a weakness? Well, certainly the Kremlin is substantially weakened by Stalin's death. The prestige of Stalin was very great. We've seen it, of course among the satellites, the most striking case was in East Germany. People rose up. I think within Russia themselves it's clear that the Kremlin feels that they have to make certain concessions to the people. They are talking about increasing the production of consumer goods and food, and that's an indication that there's restlessness within the Soviet Union. They may well be able to control it, however. Mr. Herman, you are probably the most distinguished spokesman for foreign policy of the party which is now out of power. What do you as an official of the former administration think of the conduct of foreign policy of the present administration? Well, they are attempting to carry on the policies that our government has been following for the last several years, and in many ways they are carrying them out. Their objectives are the same and their objectives are good. I am somewhat fearful by several things. One is the dictatorial attitude that is taken on occasions. I don't think that's the way to deal with our friends and allies. Leadership means they're ready to accept our leadership and glad to accept our leadership, but not dictation. These people that we're dealing with have fought for their independence and died for it, and they're not going to sell their independence. Mr. Chairman, I interrupt to ask you what you think of this administration's approach to a bipartisan foreign policy. Are you satisfied with it? No, there has been no attempt until this last calling in by the President of the Democratic leaders to tell them what the State of the Union speech was going to say about foreign policy and military. It's not consultation. There hasn't been consultation with the Democrats. There's been support by the Democrats of President Eisenhower's foreign policies, but in the days when we had bipartisanship there was real consultation with the Republican leaders before decisions were taken. And that's the only way to get real bipartisanship. Give the opposition a chance to have their views considered before decisions are as to policy are reached. When you see the days of Vandenberg, when he was chairman of the Foreign Relations Committee of the Senate, the administration, President Truman and the Secretary of State and myself on different occasions consulted with him and his colleagues before decisions were reached and his vice was taken in many cases, and there could be a concerning of policies and objectives and our security is so important that I think we ought to get back to that atmosphere. Mr. Harriman, we all like to look ahead at this time of the year. So may I ask you the final question, what you think our foreign policy should be towards our allies? Well, as I said, I think we should continue to what we've been attempting to do in the last several years, but I think we should do it with somewhat more vigor. I think we've got to maintain, unfortunately, a military establishment that can protect ourselves and give an impetus to our friends and allies to make the effort which they can make to do their share. When we relax, why they will relax, and therefore I do regret this cut in our military expenditures. I also believe that we should give leadership and recognize that when they're not there, less tensions, there's less fear in the world. It requires a greater skillful leadership on our part to keep the Grand Coalition together, to give unity among our allies. And I believe, of course, that the free world stands together. There can be no doubt as to the outcome of this struggle against the evil forces of the Kremlin. Well, thank you very much, Mr. Collingwood, and I. We had a great deal of pleasure in having you here tonight, Mr. Harriman. Well, I enjoyed very much being with you. The opinions you've heard our speakers express tonight have been entirely their own. The editorial board for this edition of the Lawn Jean Chronoscope was Larry LeSir and Charles Collingwood. Our distinguished guest was April Harriman, formerly Ambassador to Russia and Secretary of Commerce. 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