 Hello, everyone. Welcome to another IR capsule for the Shankar Academy. Today our topic is the new avatar or the new incarnation of the president of China, Xi Jinping. But before that, let me update you very quickly on COP26, but which we have discussed before. But only yesterday it came to a conclusion after a little extended time to finalize the final declaration. There is nothing surprising in the final declaration because all those we have discussed before, like a declaration of various years for net zero, emission etc are all there. And also the various steps taken by different countries, different groups, because it's all in the declaration. But the bad news is that even if it's all implemented, we'll still end up with 2.4 degrees Celsius, which is not good for the planet. So that remains. But the interesting point was that the final declaration was delayed beyond the extended time because of a slight difference in opinion about the use of the word cold facing out. Because many countries, particularly developed countries, were interested in facing out cold. And the developing countries, particularly India, which has a major deposit of coal, would not like to do that. So the final agreement was held up because India was not agreeable to a suggestion that coal or even investment in coal should be phased out. So like it happens in all UN conferences, then the most imaginative fix has to be found. And finally, it was found and rather unusual phrase phased down PHAAC DOWN rather than PHAC OUT. Because phase out means it should go out completely, not today, not tomorrow, but one day. But phased down means we'll simply reduce use of that. And it seems this magical word was provided by India. And then the entire conference was declared a success. There was definitely several steps being taken. But the disappointment remains that it may not make any difference to the future of the planet. But as I said in my last talk, I said the good thing about this is that people are now looking inwards and seeing what we can do ourselves, even if international cooperation is not available. So that possibility is being considered. So you cannot depend too much on international cooperation. And each one has to do something for themselves. Well, coming back to our main subject, Xi Jinping, of course we all know, is the most powerful president China ever had after Mao Zedong. And he was shaping himself in the image of the great helmsman, as he was known, because the leader of the revolution, long time leader of the party, Mao Zedong thought, guided the country all these years. And therefore, he was the undeclared hero, or the father of the nation, as far as China was concerned. After that, several leaders came. Other leaders like Deng Xiaoping made an equally important contribution. And others believed in some kind of collective leadership. And so various options were considered. And then came Deng Xiaoping, who is completing his two terms in 2023. He still has time. He finishes only in 2022. But we knew that he was growing in importance and growing in his power and strength. And he was virtually the uncontested leader of all aspects of Chinese life, including Chinese thought. So once a leader becomes responsible for the thought of the people, then he becomes the most powerful. So from Mao Zedong thoughts to Xi Jinping thoughts. So there's many things common and many things different, things done by people like Deng Xiaoping are also incorporated. In any case, now Xi Jinping has become close to the great helmsman, as Mao was designated. So Xi Jinping has not yet been called great helmsman, but the word now be used for him is the helmsman. This is not the first time that's being used. It has been used for also other presidents. Because the Chinese often use the image of the nation as a ship. So if it's a ship which has to be guided, you need to have a helmsman or a captain. I think that is the concept. And when he becomes the core of the country, that is what's being said about other leaders also. So when he becomes the core leader of the country, then naturally he becomes the end of all of everything. And this has come at a time, we also have reports, we do not know whether these are true or not, that China is in great difficulties economically, there have been several problems and some readjustment has been made in order to go back a little to socialism rather than follow Deng's path of capitalism with Chinese characteristics. So in the middle of all this at the sixth plenum of the 19th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China met and took what was called a historic decision or a historic resolution. One you can imagine there have been only three historic revolutions, resolutions in the Central Committee of the Communist Party once at the time of Mao Zedong, later at the time of Deng Xiaoping and now he didn't. So to say that he is the core leader, then everything goes around him. So while Mao was known as helmsman and people's leader, and these were the words used because these are called words, so you have to remember that for your examination, what is a helmsman, what's a people's leader, what's a core leader, all these we have to distinguish. But it's certain to be a precedent making resolution, this one is, because for the first time a decision in being taken that a precedent can be precedent for life. This was not right out before and therefore Deng Xiaoping, Xi Jinping should have finished his term, second term at the end of 2012 and 2013 a new leader, sorry 2022 and 2023 a new leader should have come into place. But of course he has not yet been appointed as act, but what they have done is they have removed the restriction that the president cannot have more than two counts. So that means any precedent can have more than two counts, but that decision has been taken specifically in the case of Deng Jinping. So that means even a year before his term ended, the way has been cleared for him to be elected president. This is a very significant event, it has an implication for the future of China. Earlier leaders would expect it to be changed after 10 years and now it's open up for all leaders in the future. They do well to try and get presidency for life. So what is the resolution, this historic resolution, the third historic resolution of the Central Committee was to highlight his achievements, President Xi's achievements. Of course they are all called the people's achievements, but definitely they are allotted to him and on that basis having praised him for all the good things that he has done, everything was shown as good, no faults were found. In earlier cases sometimes they correct the course of the previous administration or even the present administration itself, then I talk about some weak points or some failures, but in this case none of this is there. So he is the core and the leader of the Chinese rejuvenation and so China is entering a new powerful era. There is repetitive references to a new era, there's always new era that they celebrate. So in this particular case we'll be able to, so this since it is a ship of state with the helmsman as the leader, the ship of state can will be able to brave any of the scams in the future. So they do anticipate opposition to China not internally, internally of course they are very stable, but externally they expect a large number of challenges because China's intention is not to remain as number two or number three in the world but intention is to become number one. So naturally there will be resistance from others and that is what they mean by saying that we need now a strong leader, a strong helmsman who will be able to brave any of the scams. So he is recognized as to be called the people's leader and achievements of the party in the 100 years, the 100 years of the Communist Party, this is considered a very significant period and that is the reason why they decided to raise him and also say that President can have more than two terms. On other occasions when such resolutions are produced they would refer to some dark moments in history, like for example Mao's days there was a great lead forward in 1958, it was a campaign to increase grain yields which led to millions of people starving to death. So that was one activity which was carried out in the 1958 campaign of Mao Zedong which was criticized even when Mao was praised for his achievement. And here of course there isn't any such reference to any failures but there is a reference that country must not overreach when trying to solve today's problems of reducing the income gap and creating new economic situations. So there is a slight resistance or a reservation about what is called outreaching yourself. So this may be probably a reference for the Chinese always speak in such language so we have to read meaning situations. So when they say that today's problem, when we try to solve today's problems we should not overreach may mean the kind of changes that we did bring is bringing into the economy. So now there is also a ring that all that China wants to achieve may be difficult to do so. I like for example the word now used is common prosperity that is the new buzzword in China but that is different from a number of people becoming very rich. So Ben Ziyar's theory was if the wealth is created and then it will percolate down to the ordinary people and therefore everybody becomes rich. But now there is a slight shift there and so the idea is to establish common prosperity which is a new word in the neither capitalism nor communism but common prosperity is of course at the heart of Marxism itself and therefore common prosperity is the objective but it's mentioned there that common prosperity is not easily achievable because even if the entire wealth of the country is divided equally among all the people of China there will be no common prosperity. In other words there may be differences in levels of quality of living. So Regent Pink's thought is now the guiding spirit and that has been incorporated into the constitution. So Regent Pink's thought covers all kinds of activities in which he has said something or the other at one time or the other and these are like the famous Mao's red book. So this is all compiled and that should give the guidance for the people. So it is about secularism which is with China's characteristics for a new era. So for the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and for the growth of secularism and for achieving common prosperity Regent Pink is now the leader. This is not the first time that a leader has been called a core leader or a helmsman in 2020 after CPC plenum. Also there was a reference to the helmsman. Then I mentioned Xi's ideology which is now known as Regent Pink's thought and that has been characterized as a sense of Chinese culture. So it's not attributed just to one person but it is attributed to the essence of Chinese culture. In other words, he is the one who understands China's culture and whatever he expresses, whatever his thoughts are essentially the Chinese culture interpreted by him. And of course the resolution that is talk about undue emphasis given to democracy in the world because they know that they are the least democratic and therefore they cannot be praising democracy. When you say people's prosperity, it doesn't include political prosperity. It only includes economic prosperity. So as you know President Biden is thinking of organizing a democracy summit in Washington. So there is a reference in this resolution to this democracy summit being a farce. The word used is it's a farce that the Americans are doing so you should not go closer to democracy that is a warning. Then core leader and the word core leader is used in so many parts of the resolution and China becomes a modern fully developed country. The expectation is that China will become a fully developed country by 2049. So that is their objective. By 2049 China should be a fully developed country because now it is still a developing country and China keeps talking about it. China is still not a developed country. So that is what they are preparing for that is the future and for that future we don't know how long Xi Jinping will be there but as long as he is there he will give the leadership for China to become the fully developed country. So as I mentioned there are only three historic resolutions like this in the last 100 years. So that means it's a very, very significant, very thoughtful and very imaginative decision that they have taken. So from 1940-45 onwards of course 20th century Marxism is being emphasized. So if you compare the three great people that is Mao, Deng Xiaoping and Xi Jinping we could say that the Deng Xiaoping era is about to end because Xi Jinping continued Deng Xiaoping's policy of supporting capitalism being close to capitalist funding, investment, welcome from other places, dissolved Deng Xiaoping's ideas and those were practiced by Xi Jinping but now with his new suggestion that he is taking over the leadership as the Heisman and the core leader it could be interpreted as the eclipse of Deng Xiaoping's period or era. So the new era is a post-Deng Xiaoping era where China might start back to, go back to Mao's base. So and the emphasis is not only on domestic progress because domestic progress is a concern and there are also different reports about difficulties and problems facing the domestic economic situation. But the emphasis is more and more about the issues, the external issues, international issues. So there is a suggestion that there would be a possibility of conflict with the United States and its allies and therefore the new President or the new authority or the new position given to Deng Xiaoping will lead to the leadership of China, not only internally but also externally. So he is stepping out, China is now stepping out of the limelight into the limelight and focus not only on drastic action inside the country but also on working on the leadership of the world. So in this context we have to look at the recent international President Xi Jinping's recent international actions. First of course he did not go to the Glasgow summit which was a big surprise because he was in a way supporting the Americans to move on to this new method of calculating reductions by declaring specific years etc. But he not only did not go there, he also did not participate even on a indirect manner, he didn't deliver a lecture or anything. And after his 2017 Davos appearance at a major international conference, the next one was supposed to be Glasgow but he did not go there. So though coming to a center stage is one of their objectives but China did not do this and this is being analyzed by people whether it was because such an important meeting of the plenum was taking place and therefore he could not leave China or is it because he wanted to give a signal that he is going to set his house in order and become more powerful and then face the rest of the world. And this you should remember that is the 15th of November itself that is going to a virtual summit between President Biden and President Xi Jinping. We will know what happens in the next few hours but we can presume that this is not a very happy meeting. They are not going to hug each other even if it was possible virtually but they are going to keep a distance and both will be measuring each other after all Xi Jinping is talking to President Biden in his new personality as a powerful person will be there for some more years. More American presidents may have to deal with him and that kind of image and therefore it will not be a major if not make any major changes. I suppose they are talking about President Biden talks about confrontation not to lead to confrontation. He says differences will be there but it should not lead to confrontation and that idea President Xi Jinping also seems to endorse that thing should be sorted out and so small problems of various kinds for visas or reopening of the consulates which Trump had closed down and completely eliminating any kind of trade war. So these minor but significant things may be discussed and some decisions will be taken but what exactly will the trajectory of China U.S. relations may not be seen here because many of the exchanges that have taken place at the lower levels have not been very pleasant. They have been accusing each other of various things while saying that cooperation is essential but they reflect the idea that differences are much and many things have to be sorted out. But in this context there was a big surprise at COP26 at Glasgow they declared they issued a joint declaration China and U.S. Nobody else just two of them saying that we'll cooperate with each other on environmental matters this is rather unusual. You know there are sometimes talk about G2 ruling the world. G2 means U.S. and China nobody else known G7 known G20 nobody else but G2 this has been talked about so if they both can get together they can do whatever they want. So there is a reflection of that in what happened at the Glasgow conference where even though Xi Jinping was not there an agreement or a declaration was made between the two of them that they will cooperate. So these have to be seen after this conversation we'll probably know what the exact position will be but there is a willingness on both sides to cooperate also even while they are communicating. But the big issues like Taiwan like the South China sea like Hong Kong so these things can never be sorted out. Those are the big issues and I do not expect that this would be the time for that and any discussion on these subjects will immediately get into a conflict situation. So the virtual summit with Biden on November 15th is not likely to be very successful in the new context. The new image of Xi Jinping and a rather weak image of President Biden. President Biden's popularity has been going down but that is democratically established. But Xi Jinping's popularity has been going up but that is not democratically established. It is within the communist party. And also there have been the steps that Xi Jinping has done in producing foreign investment. You know the story of the tuition classes. He made all tuition classes nonprofit and therefore lost something like 11 billion US dollars direct investment. You know also about the construction company with technological companies Alibaba most of them have been cut to size and these look like irreversible. I do not think that they are going to go back to that situation and so localization, the local brands to be encouraged, then an exodus of foreigners and that is becoming an issue. Lots of foreigners are leaving not only foreign investment but also a lot of foreigners are leaving and that may be a hindrance because technology experts leaving China may become a problem and therefore there will be greater emphasis on localization and that may be also a factor which will impede the progress in any kind of cooperation with the two countries. And so what we are seeing from the decisions of the freedom. Number one, the president is going to be focusing not only on domestic issues but he's preparing himself for a big battle international. That is number one. And number two, he is moving in the direction of more controls, more localization and less foreign direct investment. This is the second, then he will focus more on cyber security, trade, nuclear non-proliferation. These are issues that they have to tackle and all this in the previous meetings China has been making some demands, some of the steps demands were given to the Americans. Most of them were not fulfilled but the one lady who was the chief economic officer who was arrested in Canada that she has been let out that is only one concessions that the Americans have done out of all the demands that they put forward. And now there is also a prediction that China will be focusing on finding solutions for domestic problems rather than seeking greater international cooperation. So globalization may be less and more localization is likely to be. So it is simply not the progress of a man. That's how it is normally seen as but as an initiation of a new era because that new era has been shaped by changing Ping himself. So it is personality cult definitely it is but it is being projected as the requirement of China for a new era and for that the Communist Party of China is preparing the country and appointing a leader on a short on a long-term basis so they can handle all this. And there are of course with the issues like corruption and so on which are also China is facing and there is an uncertainty about the future. So they feel that China is not being recognized fully abroad. So a mix of all these things. So it's very difficult for someone to fully analyze it but as you know there is plenty of material there's much more than what we can absorb. But from your perspective as you know competitors in the examination you need to know only the broader dimensions. And those are the broader dimensions I outlined so you might prepare yourself to comment on these developments and give your own interpretation. But the general feeling is that China will be more inward looking rather than outward looking. Though they say they'll deal with extended issues. And even on COVID-19 it seemed to be facing a new crisis, a new lockdown etc being talked about. But even that is not being publicly stated and we don't hear much about this or call the vaccine diplomacy etc. So they seem to be you know looking inwards to solve the problems of China. And that seems to be the reason for the kind of changes that one whoming is supposed to be recommending. And he seems to be the person who is guiding President Xi Jinping. But his own extent of his activities and the extent of his influence are not very well known. But it's quite known that his kind of shadow of Xi Jinping who has been there for the last 30 years. But now his thoughts and ideas are getting more attention from the leadership. And so we have a China and then what does it mean for India finally? Of course a strong China is always a threat and particularly if it has expansionism in the board. And therefore we can expect that in China may become more or shall we say unfriendly towards India that's likely. And that is what we are seeing in the border in the dark. Earlier they were you know willing to disengage but now they are actually reinforcing some of the camps etc they had there. There does not seem to be any tension on their part to disengage easily. Of course we are persisting with the negotiations. So we do not know what exactly has been discussed at this point in time. But there is definitely a delay in the disengagement. And this could perhaps be a reflection of the new leader and the new China. And so that may not reflect easily on us. And because since we have the border issue and they are likely to be more firm on this rather than more friendly that is the analysis that I have seen. But India as you know is ready to face any kind of situation. And while we do not want any confrontation we will be prepared to meet any challenge as our Prime Minister and the military leaders are telling us. So everything is open whether it is good for China or it is good for the world as good for India. All these have to be seen but these are definitely dramatic changes in the Chinese system and the full implications of it will be seen only in the future years. Thank you. They had given indication earlier that they will give an exemption for S7400 for India while they did not give it for Turkey. And there have been indications given when there were some visitors from US here that they were still thinking about it. So S400 is not related to China but to answer your question, yes this is still undecided but the Russians are going ahead with the supply and since President Putin is coming to India it's even more significant. So let's see what happens. We cannot say war but certainly China has always been propping up Pakistan in various ways. They are what are called the all-weather friends for an Islamic country to be very close friends of a communist country is rather unnatural but because both of them have similar opinions about India they seem to have become thick friends over the years. So this is part of that even the nuclear weapons of Pakistan were supplied by China they were not developed in Pakistan. So there is no provocation of war here but we have to be prepared for the fact that a major Chinese warship will be at the disposal of Pakistan which increases its toxicity capability for good damage and we should be prepared for it. Yes we should be concerned because it's a new law which seems to have implications for the line of actual control because they may declare some of these places which are now non-determined as the border between India and China and then legislate on them, create habitats, create groups of people moving their settlements. So but China has said that this will have no implications on the line of actual control. We do not know but India is concerned and we have expressed our concern that they should not be used for any kind of colonization of the areas still under dispute and on two sides of the line of actual control. Have we not changed Taiwan? They seem to be quite prepared for war in order to make Taiwan part of China but that is not in the, just in my view it doesn't think it is anybody's interest to create any such situation in Taiwan and reunification of Taiwan has to be peaceful other than any other and that may be a time when it could happen like Hong Kong, Taiwan could also be part of China but at the moment both sides are very aggressive and therefore we do not know what the situation will be. But again when we think of the new powers of President Xi Jinping we should expect that he will also be very tough on the question of Taiwan. Well we are very far behind and it will take us a long time to catch up with them but we are not trying to catch up that need not be our objective. More and more people are saying that we should take our own trajectory. We should not try to copy or do exactly what the Chinese did that may not be in our interest and that is why we are now talking about Abhinav Nagar and various other measures that we take to look out ourselves and place it on a stable basis rather than to catch up with China. We have our strengths China has its strengths and we have to maximize ours and be ready to meet any threat from China. It should not be a race for leadership or race for greater strength. Okay, that seems to be the end of the question and answer session. Thank you very much.