 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network We have got a banger opening full week of college football and tap for this weekend It is officially week number one where to break down all the big games across this week and talk about best bets over a Fandall sports book four week one by talking to dr. Ed Feng and picking his brain on this weekend's game This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and Fandall research My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a managing editor of digital media for Fandall research joined here as mentioned by dr Ed Feng you can find his work over at the power ain't calm and check him out on Twitter at the power rank add Lot of good games on tap for this weekend You started things off on a high note and we zero with the Notre Dame at minus 20 and a half Which they covered almost doubled up. How you doing today? I'm doing well. It was it was really nice checking scores during my kids soccer game and seeing Notre Dame Was was romping through that game actually just saw a thing this morning like I think buddy Elliot had like Navy under point five half a point in the first quarter, which also worked out So, yeah, yeah, so that was that was a nice way to start this season I'm hoping that was an alt market and not the the baseline market there for Navy's first half team total there probably can't be Probably can't be the base market Probably, but I don't want to rule it out there because retrospect base market, but yeah, we're not allowed to do that No, exactly, but a good win by you there with Notre Dame game And honestly had a really fun way to start things off in week one too because we got a lot of fun games Maybe not as high profile as it was the camp rising likely out for Utah But still overall a lot of good games on tap this weekend So that's how to kind of sit back and just kind of enjoy college football being back in our lives Absolutely. I'm really looking forward to it Everyone here in Ann Arbor is definitely looking forward to the season and it's yes nice stuff football back Yeah, we're gonna talk about those games break down that Florida versus Utah game coming up on Thursday night and then talk about other big games this week in Ed There are bets over at Fandals sports book But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast tomorrow We're talking EPL match week number four with Austin cast We have got a pitching ninja back with us on Friday talk about some player props next week NFL shows or NFL schedule Is back as well including twice per week Ed here on the show Wednesdays and Thursdays Talking college football and the NFL to get these shows as they are posted Make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast You can also find us on the Fandal youtube page and Fandal TV plus on Amazon fire Apple TV and Roku devices plus by going to Fandal comm slash watch get your game day gear on because college football is back and Fandal Wants you to join in on the fun right now all customers can get a no sweat bed for week one Just place a bet on any week one college football game You'll get bonus bets back if you don't win bet on money lines spreads Totals and more just visit the Fandal sportsbook app and kick off the college football season with America's number one sportsbook Must be 21 plus and president select states refund issued is non-littrable bonus bets that expire seven days after a seat Max refund $5 unless otherwise specified Restrictions apply see terms at sportsbook.fandal.com Fandal is offering online sports wagering in Kansas under an agreement with Kansas star casino LLC gambling problem call 1-800 gambler or visit fandal.com slash RG in Arizona 1-800 next step protects next step to 5334 to in Connecticut 188 789 7777 or business EC PG dot or such chat in Indiana 1-809 with it in Wyoming in Kansas 1-805 2-2 4700 in Kansas KS gambling health comm Louisiana's 1-807 770 stop in Maryland MD gambling health at work in white West Virginia 1-800 gambler net hope is here visit gambling helpline MA org or call 800-327-5050 or 24 7 supportive massages in in New York 1-8772 hoping wire text hope and why now we'll dig into the top games here in just one second Ed but let's talk about general betting philosophy for week one first because we got no data on most these teams We did not play in week zero, but you've talked about how your market-based model does tend to do well early on in the season So for you personally, do you have a lighter card early on due to the lack of data? Or does the past performance of your model allow you to have a pretty similar card in the early going? I'm definitely up for firing away the first couple weeks I Definitely trust my model and as long as you are putting some handicapping on top of that to figure out why the model thinks You know it has opinion that it does. I definitely think it's worth firing away I mean, I think Notre Dame last week was a pretty good example like it the numbers had it But beyond that, you know, we knew that they were bringing in Sam Hartman to throw the ball and Navy's past defense was terrible So, you know, you just combine those things and we'll talk about some other things today But yeah, I I'm definitely up for firing away early in the college football season I Think it all it all comes down to kind of knowing your strengths If you have a model like Ed's that has back tested well early on then use it Lean on that because there is an edge there to be had and you don't want to pass up a spot We have an edge But if you know that you're not going to be as skilled betting on this year If you can't pay as close attention to transfer portals and stuff like that early on play things light So it'll be very much dependent on you But if you have you know good numbers backing things up and good intuition like Ed has you can still feel good about betting things in week number one with that said let's dive in now to some of the big games here across week one over at Fandals sportsman beginning on Thursday night We got Florida taking on Utah and this spread has moved because cam rising reportedly will not play for this week It's not officially yet But it seems like it is trending towards rising now playing and as a result Utah now a four and a half point favorite It was six and a half earlier on total for this game is 44 and a half so Ed a likely no cam rising for this game. How does that impact your view of Utah hosting, Florida? It clearly impacts the view of Florida at Utah. I'm a little Disappointed in my Heisman future on on cam rising There was value there. I thought because of the injury But obviously there's less value if the the man does not play in a big matchup Against Florida. I sucked a lot of things out of Utah. I think with cam rising I would have made this Utah minus eight and a half and If you want to bet it you kind of need to figure out what the drop-off is from from cam rising to his backup Is it four points? I I do have a lot of faith in this Utah program Utah's also waiting for some injury information on Titan Brandt Coonth He is probably going to be their best receiver this year. He's also dealing with an ACL There's some questions about whether he's gonna play as well so looking at those injury situations I Is obviously important. I definitely believe in Kyle Weedingham with the Utah program is doing They've had a really good track record over the last couple seasons obviously part of that cam rising but You just expect a Weedingham defense to be pretty good I'm not sure about what Billy Napier is doing at Florida simply because it's only his second year there Had an okay season last year, but is it really gonna take the rise this year? He brought in Graham Mertz as the quarterback transfer from Wisconsin Graham Mertz was Supposedly the well he was the highest highest rated recruit at quarterback the Wisconsin it ever brought in and then it Really didn't really work out at Wisconsin. So he gets a fresh start. Maybe he'll be awesome and he will play Like the high recruit that he was I think Florida has a lot of question marks obviously with with the uncertainty Over-camarizing I mean, I'm not betting the side in this game But I will I will still be watching because I still think it should be pretty good game And obviously Mertz coming in now to replace Anthony Richardson for Florida and he had that one Banger game his first start his first like official full game with Wisconsin 20 or 21 passing five touchdowns. They are never really lived up to that though so Wasn't that against like Illinois before they had a good defense though. It was Illinois. Yeah It was his first I came against them and that was I think that was with lovey at the time, which should have been a red flag Yeah, yeah, exactly. It wasn't like the Illinois defensive last year. That was amazing, right and just never Duplicated that so what are overall expectations of this Florida offense with Mertz as a quarterback? I think I think a huge question mark I think that game that you're talking about wasn't that the covert year. Yes, it was yeah So, you know Mertz certainly didn't live up to things. I remember losing a lot of Wisconsin bets Maybe not too many but like I remember losing some Wisconsin bets with him when you know, the end of the Christ era and just Yeah, I mean he was that he was definitely disappointed there I I would label it as a big fat question mark over how he does at Florida. I think he could be amazing He could be terrible and on the bench Yeah, he had the game against Illinois and then two weeks later through three picks against the eventual Big 10 West champions go-kats so Was definitely a tumultuous year for Grand Merce spite that hot start but that's staying away from this one with the Camrising injury and all the uncertainty surrounding that let's talk now about a battle in the Carolinas It is North Carolina taking on a South Carolina and right now UNC is a two and a half point favorite at Fandals sportsbook for this one totalless game is decently high at 64 and a half and Ed you talk a lot about how You know pro prospects matter when it comes to quarterback play and Drake may you're not gonna get a lot higher regard when it comes to quarterbacks in the in college football for this year, so When you look at Drake may and look at the hype around for the NFL does that translate to high expectations for you entering this year for UNC? Absolutely does and I actually really think it impacts this game for me This is a game with two terrible defenses South Carolina really struggled last year, especially I've run defense There were there were 117th in my adjusted success rate numbers. They were much better against the past So that's probably a good thing against North Carolina North Carolina was just awful everywhere on defense despite bringing in G former national championship winning coach Gene Chiswick to run that side of the ball. It was an awful unit I believe the overall they were 117th in my adjusted success rate So it is a game where you know, you kind of look at maybe you want to bet the over of course rules have changed in college football and the clock runs After first downs like it does in the NFL Except in certain situations. So I think you need to be very cautious in In betting and over also don't really have a model for it right now. So I'm less likely to do that, but Anyways, I'm staying away from that even though these are too bad defenses so then you get to the offensive side of the ball and You know, you have two very interesting quarterbacks Spencer Rattler for South Carolina You have to remember that at one point Spencer Rattler was the market favorite to be the number one overall draft pick in the NFL And that was a very that was a very interesting time. A lot of time has passed. I got benched in favor of Kayla Williams, which is Not necessarily an embarrassment in and of itself because we found out that Kayla Williams is pretty good But you know, it's not like rattlers killing it at South Carolina last year. The pass offense Was 58th when you look at my adjusted success rate not Not great Stories a lot different for Drake May in North Carolina Again, we're gonna mention Kayla Williams because Drake May is considered the kind of consents the second quarterback Behind Williams heading into the NFL draft last year The North Carolina offense was 17th in passing when I look at adjusted success rates So so definitely much better a unit in terms of moving the ball with the passing game May doesn't have his top two receivers from last year, but But yeah, maybe it's a difference because my numbers have North Carolina by three point two points So I'm over that important number of three couple of the models I looked at also like North Carolina at the neutral site here and Yeah, you want to bet a guy that's probably gonna play in the NFL next year and Drake May over Spencer Rattler He's probably not playing in the NFL next year. So I like UNC minus two and a half here That is minus 115 right now over at Fandall Sportsbook to lay the two and a half the UNC money line is minus 140 as well And as I mentioned, you're getting it across three, which is definitely in Tyson there going back to the point about the clock No longer stopping on first downs How long do you want to wait before you formulate opinions because obviously like you said you're not running a total model because The model you're using right now is so much based on the market and wind totals and stuff like that That doesn't affect totals as much. So how long do you want to wait and Get a gauge on the impact of this new rule before you dive in and bet totals the way you typically would I Mean, I'm probably not betting any totals until my model kicks in week four or five Whenever it is and then and then understand that that model is probably gonna be a little bit high Based on totals that were a little bit high in the first couple weeks. I'm certainly gonna be looking at data Based on number of plays so this is kind of advice that that Bob stole talked about on my podcast last week don't really look at points, but but look at the number of plays and The the drop should be anywhere overall between four to seven plays a game And but there's a big difference between those those two numbers in terms of how many fewer points that we expect I'm gonna give it a couple weeks Like I said, I'm not betting totals probably until my model kicks in a little bit later in the season But we'll definitely have definitely have looked at that definitely look dig into the data and look at number of plays You know and I think if you want to do it at this point in the season You know, you have a very even if you wanted to look at it after this week It's a limited sample. You should probably make some adjustments about how many plays you expected for certain teams I think by week three or four You probably don't have to make those adjustments because we've seen a lot of it a lot of stuff will average out And you can just kind of look at averages over a hundred hundreds of games So that'll make things a little bit easier. So I'm definitely waiting a little bit on tolls Yeah, I think that that makes a lot of sense But we will get data here a lot of data we got some data last week as well So the sample expanded pretty quickly, which is always very helpful But be sure to account for that when you are looking at these totals and just kind of eye testing them Make sure you are counting for that for sure Let's finish up here with the Sunday night game We got LSU taking on Florida State and right now LSU a two and a half point favorite for this one total is 55 and a half This one is also a neutral site game and I want to talk about LSU at because Expectations this year pretty high for year two with Brian Kelly and Jane Daniels What are your expectations of them heading into 2023? Yeah, they're really high I mean last year when you looked at what they were doing obviously with the win over Alabama but they were really good on both sides of the ball and You know, they had Jaden Daniels at the quarterback position. He's tend to one to win the Isman So that's obviously pretty good. I think I don't know if there's anyone between him and the Kayla Williams I five to one as the favorite I think there's a lot of reasons to be high on LSU heading in this season. I certainly am There's also a lot of reasons to be high on Florida State as well So they they were pretty good last year and definitely Were a program that is on the rise from from where they were I talked about Elliot who is Not only a college football expert, but actually really follows Florida State we're on the no-cast podcast and You know, he I think I have Florida State about right I have about seventh in my numbers And I think that's right because he he said that They would really have to reach their ceiling to make the playoff So rank somewhere between five and ten Kind of makes sense and that's exactly where I have them. So my model overall You know how has the LSU by two really doesn't see any value in this game at all It's a stay away from me We should also mention Florida Florida State quarterback Jordan Travis also pretty big Heisman contender at 12 to 1 this is a battle of two players two quarterbacks that that are you know battling for the Heisman if they can kind of sustain what Their trajectory from last year. I don't see any value on the side, but should be a fantastic football game Yeah, ceiling discussion is mostly pertinent for season-long stuff like the playoffs But especially when you're facing a team like LSU ceiling does matter for a single game as well Because LSU ceiling is so high in a single game as well And if I'm gonna trust anybody with regards to their judgment of a ceiling Probably gonna be but Elliot because he has a tremendous read on that stuff via things like the blue chip ratio, etc So if bud is talking about that for Florida State, I'm going to buy in to what he is saying What about elsewhere on the board across week number one at where else is seeing value right now for week one in college football at Fandle Sportsbook? Yeah, let's let's go all the way to the D gen special with Stanford going to Hawaii Look, these are two awful football teams Stanford part of ways with a longtime coach David Shaw. They brought in chore tailer from Sacramento State and maybe he'll be great and he's got a lot of ideas on offense, but Doesn't really have a lot of talent at Stanford to kind of make that work your one I have them 98th in my preseason rankings They are by far the worst in in the Pac-12 even worse than Colorado and their 50 transfers So, you know, it's not looking good for Stanford Hawaii is probably even worse than Stanford. They're in year two with Timmy Chang as head coach he was Their formerly their quarterback kind of a program legend They start the season 128th in my preseason numbers out of a hundred and thirty three teams Hawaii's played a game already. They were at Vandy last week and They were 17 point underdog. They did not win the game They only lost by a touchdown But I think a lot of the underlying metrics point to a really good performance by Hawaii that 391 yards versus 297 for Vanderbilt Had better success rate had better yards per play Fannie was able to win the game because of turnovers and a kickoff return for a touchdown Hawaii Did really well in that game against Fandy. So I would have made Hawaii plus About five and a half points before week zero right now. I make Hawaii plus two and a half I actually see value in Hawaii at home now I might look really bad if it turns out that Vandy is a lot worse So it's always a little bit of a danger But I think with college football handicapping you got it. You got to react quick and Hawaii had a pretty good performance against Vandy And you know, I just I don't expect much from Stanford they're going on this long road trip across the ocean and They're gonna be on the road first game new coach, you know, I wouldn't be surprised if Hawaii won this outright Yeah, Hawaii plus three and a half is minus 112 at Fandall sports but going back to that week zero game We talked about this last year where if I think it was actually for the why you Vandy game last year Where we you were talking about how your model makes big moves based on what it sees early on and You know kind of Allocates the gain and the loss evenly across each side So it's not just taking away from Vandy keeping Hawaii's rating the same it's kind of equally taking from band Vandy adding to Hawaii and That's what you were talking about there, right where you're talking about how it could just be the Vandy's really bad We don't know that yet, but I think like the baseline expectation should probably be it's a little bit of both And if it's a little bit of both that would imply that Hawaii Justified the gains they received in your model Let's hope so yeah, I mean like yeah, yeah It is it, you know, we are dealing with small sample sizes and like there could be a lot of reasons why You know we shouldn't be higher on Hawaii, but the model says we should be You did talk about how everything's allocated equally between the two teams If I were probably a little bit more precise about the model it wouldn't be allocated equally There is a world in which someone goes in and looks at the circumstances Whether quarterback got hurt so on and so forth and allocating credit for game that would probably lead to a more accurate model definitely Very much like some of the things that Bob soul talked about on my podcast what he does week to week with his college football model At this point with the power bank, I'm just running things where everything gets allocated equally That will lead to mistakes, but we're going with it with Hawaii plus three and a half over I love it. Love it again minus 112 for that one right now at fangirl sportsbook Eddie mentioned the podcast with Bob stole people want to find that or find your work. Where can they find all that? Yeah, check out The football analytics show podcast definitely still on a big-time heater with guests head Bob stole on this week But Elliott on last week so a lot of good stuff there I'm also posting a lot of my preview series a lot I'm basically posting all my newsletters on the podcast now It's very interesting Jim because the download numbers aren't quite as much as as as the interviews on the podcast which Which I guess is expected because I would guess that some fraction of the people who are listening are actually reading the newsletters and then not just downloading those but Yeah, that yeah, that brings me to my newsletter check it out So I have a preview series going on there right now giving out some Previews and and so that's that I've been making in the preseason and then I also have five no get Saturday Which is my curated list the sports betting tips and analytics and humor So you can check that out at the power rank comm all right and again the podcast interviews are up on The football and a little show podcast feed you can find that wherever you get your podcast You can find Ed on Twitter at the power rank Ed Pleasure talking to you once again as always and we'll talk to you once again next week for both college football in the NFL I'm looking forward to having a double dose of that once again this year Yeah, looking forward to it Jim. Thanks. Alrighty check out Ed on Twitter at the power rank I am on Twitter at Jim's son is you can also follow fandal research at fandal research We are back once again tomorrow to talk about EPL match week number four will talk some NASCAR and Formula one as well Good luck to all you with your bets. We'll talk to you once again tomorrow This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network