 This is covering the spread here are your hosts Jim Saunas and Dr. Ed Feng Welcome on into covering the spread That's right here on the fan dual podcast network and number fire comm today where you're getting you set for the NBA Restart down in Orlando breaking down the betting odds for the final seeds in the West and also for the conference championships And the NBA championship with Adam stanko He's a co-host of the rejecting the screen podcast We're gonna have Adam break down his thoughts on the restart and the impact of the bubble on betting My name is Jim Saunas. I am a senior writer and analyst for number fire comm joined here as always by Ed Feng You can find his work over at the power rank comm Ed major league baseball has been back for about a week now already some Shakiness there, but hey the bubble seems safe in Orlando's we're gonna get to watch some basketball. How you doing? I'm great. I actually haven't been this excited about the NBA in forever It's usually well, it's a situation this year where I didn't get March madness So that our basketball got stripped out of my life And I'm usually a pretty big fan once the NBA playoffs get rolling and I've actually kind of really made that my fandom I don't run as many numbers as I used to on that But now the NBA starting again. I think there's a ton of interesting storylines. I'll talk about Milwaukee a little bit at the end I'm interested in actually watching Miami heat Duncan Robinson former player of Michigan has become a Standout shooter at Miami, and I'm just kind of wondering how his defense is just just kind of because he was never that great a defender So I'm interested in walking watching him. I'm interested in watching some Zion Williamson so I really enjoy the game of basketball and Looking forward to the restart Well, I think the best part about the restart and the bubble in general is that it's gonna have an NCAA tournament I feel to it because of like the staggered start time So like you're gonna get to watch one game at 2 30 and then other ones will be starting up right when that one gets to the end So like immediately after like on Friday When the magic Nets game wraps up you can jump over to two other games are starting at 4 p.m. And like that staggered start time is like it's so it gets you hooked so easily Because you can watch just the end of the game effectively So I think that there are a lot of parallels and I think it's just gonna be a really fun Scheduling and like viewer experience for you know, even casual basketball fans like myself Yeah, I don't be good and once they get into the playoffs and you get some of those games back to back I think that'll be really nice Absolutely, so it's gonna be pretty fun. We're gonna break it all down with Adam stanko You can find him on Twitter at Naismith lives. He is an NBA analyst does a lot NBA draft stuff as well he's a co-host for the rejecting the screen podcast the link for the Apple podcast link for that is in the show notes over at number fire comms if you want a link for that check it out Otherwise, you can just search Spotify Apple podcast whatever for rejecting the screen We're talk with stanko about the NBA the impact of the bubble and Ed Hopefully some inside dirt on you because you and stanko went to high school together So we got to get some embarrassing stories in there, too Yeah, I think I was such a dork that there weren't many embarrassing stories, but yes, we did go to high school together Adam's a great guy We kind of reconnected when we both ended up in the sports world. He was working on Sports Center at ESPN I was trying to claw my way into the world and Yeah, it's been really fun just connecting and and we kind of come at basketball from different perspectives Even though we appreciate the the others perspective, so I'm the big numbers guy, but I like to watch games He probably watches more basketball than any human and knows more about the game and and respects the numbers So always a great conversation It's always nice when even if you're forte something else as long as you understand what the other people are coming from like in a Numbers versus film perspective like as long as you understand where they're coming from I don't really care if you don't understand numbers as long as you like get the value of them I'm never gonna get push back against you for that. Yeah Yeah, yeah, absolutely, and there is a lot of value in watching games So I'm glad that we can get that perspective from Adam So we'll bring Adam in in just one second if you're looking for some baseball talk We had Dan Zimborski on last week to preview the 60 game NLBC's and he talked about how the Marlins might make the playoffs Poor Dan. Hey, I mean they are in first right now. So hey, I guess there's that How that how are they gonna catch up in games missing a week, I don't know if they will Rob Anford has said like they don't care if everyone gets a 60 in which case they go winning percent So if the Marlins just don't play the rest of the year, exactly by winning percentage, they might be in that would be amazing Like pay off the lot like don't actually get your players covered but pay off the lab to say they have Covid so you can just keep like their two-in-one record or whatever was against the Phillies and just coast on that I'm sure there wouldn't be any issues that way or maybe I mean, you know, the Tigers are off to a good start So maybe there are 500 halfway through this. Oh, but wait, they're doing that 16 game playoff though, right? Yeah, so it's 16 teams in the playoffs. So like Yeah, you're you're still it's still a tough road to you if you make the playoffs But like hey, you know the Tigers can get themselves in slip slip a lab technician 50 bucks to say you're positive While everyone's healthy, you know, what could go wrong? I see no flaws in this plan personally But if you want to hear Dan's discussion check that out by searching for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast We are an Apple podcast spotify stitcher I heart radio you name it We're probably there to search for covering the spread before we get to Adam though I do want to go back to last week We have one thing to mention with covering the past and pit road once again not being kind to our bets here on covering the spread Covering the past All right, so last week here on covering the spread and covering the future I mentioned Joey Logano is being my favorite option for an ass car in Kansas and he was 16 to 1 we discussed him He closed it 14 to 1 so a little bit of value there and Things started off pretty well for Lugano He actually led the first 27 laps of the race and then there was a competition caution to allow teams to come in change the tires Check tire wear etc. So Lugano pitted while leading and his team got called for a tire violation during the pit stop So he had to go all the way to the back everyone is still in the lead laps He's restarting like 30 or something like that and I was like, okay Well, we had a good run for 27 laps, but it was still early and Lugano was working his way back forward He had gotten back into the top 10 with about 100 laps left And then he blew a spring or shock or something like that caused a huge wreck So I still like the bet at the number. It didn't work out Obviously the the pit road violation did not help things, but still okay with the process there and for those of you Who are annoyed with NASCAR bets just a sneak peek? There's no NASCAR in covering the future for today. Ed's talking basketball. I'm talking golf So your your paradise has finally arrived. There will be no additional NASCAR discussion on the podcast for today I'm not saying for the rest of the year. It will be back eventually, but at least for this week You know, you know, I'm gonna win this week. Oh, I know Because so I was in Illinois for the past two races, which meant that I was like able to mobile sports bet because they actually have it there because New York is stupid and I was actually able to bet on Ryan Blaney and So now this will be the first race since I left Illinois, which means like It's a guarantee. He wins there. There is no other way around this like he's been good on the short flat tracks So it's just you might as well go ahead to just sprint to the betting window and bet Ryan Blaney right now Yeah, exactly. It always happens that way Ed We're gonna take a look at the NBA in just one second the first four years Number Fires premium subscription service has provided our users with expert analysis Survivor pool tools and most importantly the fantasy football draft kit all for just for up to 49 99 a month Now as a way of saying thank you to our community for years of support Number Fires rolling out a new premium package for just 9 99 a month They'll provide you with all the sports betting and daily fantasy tools You need year-round the best part is that expert analysis those survivor tools and yes Even the draft kit are totally free the rankings that I do with JJ Zacharyson and Brandon Cadulla. Those are free So head to numberfire.com check out the new and improved site and take advantage of the new premium package number fire.com 999 a month for the new premium. Let's bring in Adam stanko now follow him on Twitter at nasmith lives He is an NBA analyst and a big NBA draft guru But they were talking about their resumption of play for the NBA check out Adam's podcast It's called rejecting the screen wherever you get your podcast Let's bring him in now to chat about what we can expect in this bubble environment for the NBA Covering the present Let's bring Adam stanko into covering the spread to get set for the restart in the NBA Adam I appreciate the time NBA launching back up this week. How you doing today? I'm excited. I mean you have to be pumped up It's it's been so long a weird time, but Excited to get actual games that matter again on the court Absolutely now Ed made the major mistake before started recording of letting slip that you two went to high school together So we got a drill. Yes. What was Ed fang like in high school? Well, he's he's a brilliant guy and you picked up on that back then a nice guy We served in student council together Okay, actually and I as we go back but yeah, just a really nice guy that we all knew had a really bright future and Obviously, he's on this show. So everything turned out as planned, right? That's just as you planted Ed. I'm sure Exactly. Thanks for not revealing my true nature as a dork back in Absolutely appreciate that. No proud alum. Proud alum. I'm excited that we are proud alums together Yeah, so we did serve on the student council and I've actually been back to East a couple times in the last couple years My folks still live there and there's a picture of the two of us and whoever else was on student That you can see from the outside. You don't even need to get into the building That's funny. Well, it's even better that like a few years after we we were there Maybe it was I don't know my brother was there 10 years after I was like I used to get calls from him and his Friends in high school. He's 10 years younger than me and he's like, what did you guys wear? And this was only like 10 years Like how bad Yes, there's no question we looked a lot different and acted differently to Ed. I'm sure. Oh, yeah for sure Well, I'm sad there is no dirt on that thing, but I appreciate the loyalty Adam What have things been like for you for the past couple of months? No, you said you've got a new child so congratulations on that But I feel like that would just lead to kind of a hectic household when there there are no sports on and stuff like that Yeah, it's it's been kind of crazy. I mean four kids Avery 16 Bella 14 Hudson's three and then Skyler are newborn is is just three months old So going through a birth during quarantine was crazy The hospital situation was really weird And just trying to manage day-to-day has been kind of crazy trying to figure out the schedules My wife's trying to work out and I'm like no I got a podcast to do or you know I have a call that I have to make and so, you know, just like the rest of us We're all just trying to manage and balance it But like I said, I definitely didn't finish Netflix like the rest of us I saw Tiger King, of course, and I've seen other shows but but but the free time is you and far between I'm definitely not bored. I can say that much Absolutely. So you're podcasting from your garage today. Is that your like default area for doing podcasts this time during quarantine? Yeah, for sure for sure. So it's like my hidden spot. The three-year-old doesn't Typically come out and bother me if I'm if I'm in the garage. So it's the one spot I can kind of get away my sanctuary and yeah, talk some hoops. So I'm excited to do it today It's it's nice to actually get to talk MBA and not the idea of MBA actually happening It'll be nice to actually get games on the court. Absolutely. We'll be doing exactly that this week starting with Thursday nights Let's talk about those games because we've seen sports come back with no fans And that's one thing but the NBA is a bit different because not only are there no fans But it's not a true home court because they're playing in this bubble We don't have the sample necessarily on that yet So are you expecting any major changes in game play like individual games when they're playing in the bubble versus What we were seeing before the COVID-19 layoff Yeah, for sure. I think I mean you touch on the the idea that there's no home court advantage changes everything I mean, we'll we'll see that obviously in the playoffs During the quote-unquote regular season with these eight games as as they're going to be played But I think that the big thing for me is that when you don't have Home court advantage what that means is sports illustrated a study years ago and found that the biggest change in home court advantage Is of course the officiating so I expect We're going to see more neutral officiating so there won't be a swing one way or the other Obviously, and then the other thing for me is role players. I think anytime especially when you go on the road It's really difficult for role players to take on an expanded role and really outperform what our expectations are and When you see guys working out and I spend every summer I go down Don McLean's good friend of mine was Former NBA most improved player packed Wells all-time leading scorer Don does workouts with some of the best guys in the draft every year when I go down and watch those guys What would blow you away when you see? NBA guys working out, especially as they're working out very hard for the draft is that Like there isn't much that separates the great great players from the guys that are good Like it's it's tough to really tell sometimes you get a guy just blows your way But for the most part there's The difference is is very marginal and so because of that Really what you see is what kind of guys can replicate what they do in practice or in a workout Actually when they're in front of 20,000 fans So what I'm expecting is actually that we're going to see some just outlier performances from the role guys And especially when you again you talk no home away advantage And we've already sort of seen that somewhat Matt Thomas and the Raptors hit four threes the other night um We saw Well, Duncan Robinson, uh, you know, he had a great night Also for for the Miami Heat, although he's one of the best shooters in the league of michigan guy, of course said But but I I just call it like the the marco bellinelli effect like a guy that can explode in summer league We always see these crazy summer league performances and then guys are never able to replicate that at the NBA level I think we're gonna see that I think guys just are gonna feel so comfortable and just feel so loose and relaxed I think role playing is the role players are the biggest Factor that'll come into play That's fascinating. I mean Jim if some of you DFS guys done the study on like role players home and away and and what to do in those cases It's probably out there somewhere. I've never seen it. Uh, but I bet that someone's probably done it But it's something that I would love to read and I think like it kind of makes sense what you're saying out of two Like some guys Maybe they're a role player for a reason versus being a full-fledged star Maybe it is something along that nature that keeps them from getting to that level So I can see why you'd be looking at that as being a potential impact in the situation Yeah, for sure. I mean, I think I mean look there's there's Usually there's two types of guys in the NBA you have your superstars and then ultimately now you have specialists And that's really what the leagues come down to they refer to it as you're heading into the draft is plus one skill What's your plus one? Are you a great rebounder? Are you really good defender or are you a great shooter? And so guys are able to do those things but as specialists But again if you see those same guys in a practice setting you see them in a workout The average fan would be blown away at just like how loose they are how good their ball handling ability is how the the range on their shot but but again Everything tightens up when all of a sudden you get to an NBA arena and you're playing in front of 15 20 000 fans Now all of a sudden when you're playing in front of friends and family and it's a loose setting You're going to see guys get more creative with the ball. You're going to see them play loose You're not going to feel this intense pressure and I think that's that's going to change things So even the specialists you're going to start to see I'm telling you you're going to start to see different ball handling moves come out And just a different level of play and that's again where the big difference is especially when you get to the playoffs Where the home team has such an advantage and and their role players play well at home Think about the momentum you hit a shot and all the crowd gets behind you We all know what that feels that adrenaline rush Maybe not in that same situation But we know what it's like when people are rooting for us and the you know the the influence that has over us But then you go on the road and now You know people are booing you and they they don't want to see you touch the ball Nerve set in we get tight shots come up shorter. You're not getting as deep Um, you know in terms of bending your knees and so all those things come into play that I don't think will impact these games at all So adam, uh, I love having you on wherever podcast I'm on because you want any games And uh, I know it's probably not politically correct But I call you my hoops junkie because you really get in there There's been a lot of exhibition games in Orlando Anything that you're noticing from that that can give us an edge heading forward as we as the game started counting again I mean really it's just been about health and seeing which teams get guys back that are that are healthy and stuff We see nerk itch return for uh for portland Uh, I think that's been huge just seeing these rosters sort of come together and gel again And it's weird because it's a lot of feeling out of the process We haven't seen teams actually as much as I thought like play guys extended minutes There was a big worry and a big concern coming in about You know, how are guys going to be in terms of their physical fitness and and that basketball shape is different than than just being in Shape period because we know guys are running, but a lot of guys didn't get access to A five well nobody really had access to five on five games They had a chance maybe to do some workouts and they certainly were in touch with their teams on a daily If not, you know Every other day basis. I mean a lot of meetings were set up There's a lot of film study that was going on people were using zoom just like the rest of us That that was happening in the league, but the thing was in terms of the actual You know shape that guys are in so There hasn't really been though that concern I think more now is how if you're looking at at games and I think the biggest thing that stood out to me is just minutes so Teams are sort of holding back their stars minutes their starters, you know Their their rotation guys and playing a lot of guys that are deeper on the bench because I think more than anything I think guys are worried about injuries and especially as they come down the home stretch If you have a playoff spot secure these eight games mean nothing because again, you've taken away home court advantage So maybe you're a little bit concerned about your match up that that sometimes comes into play teams will lose games or try to win games based upon the better match up but You know in terms of really trying to get home court advantage, which again was so critical in years past Just just won't play a factor this year So are you expecting those minute limits to be in place for the regular season or I guess quote-unquote the seeding games? Once we get there for the teams that are pretty locked in are you expecting the minutes on the superstars to be capped there? I think it goes team by team and I look at the box as a great example. They're a team that Obviously haven't been to the NBA finals with this with this current group. There's a lot of pressure on yannis He he's likely the MVP in the defensive player of the year So you're talking about and then they have a whole bunch of shooters I mean, there's so many shooters on on that roster so many guys capable of hitting threes, but they depend upon their depth I think that in this case like I think the bucks are going to just try to see what they can do to get themselves in the best Position going forward So I think I look at the bucks and I think actually they'll tune it up Like I think bucks are going to look like a minute situation like they would have been During the regular season But you compare that to what maybe the Lakers and clippers who feel a little more confidently guys have been there before And I think they know what they have they feel like unless it's one of the other la teams No one's going to touch them So I think those teams are going to handle a little bit a little bit differently We won't see the guys play as much as we typically would especially you figure With kawai's injury history paul george coming off his injury So I think those situations are different lebron's age obviously playing a factor So it's it's team by team But I think you you have to look at it to try to figure that out and that's really difficult for the You know over under wind totals for these these final eight Sure, absolutely So you mentioned the use of nerk ish for portland and we've had a lot of time between The end of the beginning of the layoff and now so teams rosters have changed players have come back from health Some players have opted out and decided not to play here Are there any rosters you're expecting to major to deviate majorly from where they were back in march? I mean the blazers to me are the one that really stand out I mean now you're talking about a team that you know relied so heavily on the backcourt and what they were able to do Uh with dame and cj mccollum and now you add nerk itch a healthy nerk itch and There was no way you would have obviously played given the circumstances now Obviously they have a push push to make in order to even get in the playoffs So and you look it's going to be so strange because you see a team so desperate And then you take that situation for that eighth spot there in the west And you know you factor in the idea that the grizzlies are so young And that's going to be interesting to see because one of the things that I kept hearing from mba people is that the vets know how Not necessarily how to turn it back on but They know what was required to get themselves in game shape They know what was required mentally and to keep up a certain amount of focus And the younger guys that that's who the execs are worried about that's who the coaches are worried about What was their their regimen like in this quote unquote off season? What were they doing during their downtime during the quarantine and Are they able to get themselves mentally focused? I keep kept hearing that this mental focus You're going to be in this bubble. It's such a unique situation The blazers though have something to play for they already were heavy in the backcourt and now all of a sudden you add Nirkic who looked great, you know, and then and so far in this pre-season or this these scrimmages Like we're seeing a team that now can get you they can play any style They sort of want they have different weapons. They they have now An alternate score that doesn't just come from the backcourt. So that's huge Posting up if there's floor spacing is going to be terrific So I just think that the blazers to me are the one team that I look at Also, there were questions about the Sixers health and I think Sixers are another team that you really have to take a look at as Anytime you can make sure that joe lmbd is rested and ready to go Sixers going to be in great shape And I think ben simmett should be in discussion for defense player there I mean, he's a guy lead league in in steals And causes so many issues for opposing guards, although we know that he's going to be playing powerful now That's been the talk for from the Sixers camp. So the question is i'm curious as to is he still going to guard point cards Because I think it's been a huge advantage defensively for the Sixers So I'd look at those two teams as the one that benefited the most from what's happened now with this crazy layoff Awesome, I can't wait to get get to the knucklehead. 76ers in a little bit, but Let's stick to the western conference. Uh, you mentioned a lot about portland and Memphis the battling for that for that last spot Where do you think that finally goes and do you see any value in some of the odds? Well, I think it's going to be tough to overcome and just such a Short amount of time if we were talking about, you know, 15 games left Then I would think that I would look at especially if you return to healthy nerk it I would look at the blazers of potential Obviously a lot of talk about the pelicans and what Zion Williamson is going to be able to do We've seen some video already of him shooting threes and he looks comfortable Slimmed down like, you know this this hulking figure, but I but I I don't know I just think it's almost too much to overcome I mean there really isn't that much that we know that the grizzlies have to do and plus we talked about the The mental focus, but there's also this idea of youth and and the fact that these guys are still playing We know John Moran was is still in tremendous shape Jared Jackson, I'm excited to see what what the grizzlies can do down the stretch They don't have to do much in order to earn that spot. So well Yes, if I was going to go with anyone, it would be the blazers But I just think in such a short amount of time. It's going to be really difficult to make up that ground Yeah, definitely not a lot of time to do that The grizzlies right now minus 140 to make the playoffs over at fan dual sports book the trail blazers plus 420 So maybe if you you think they can make up that ground could go there But like like Adam said not a lot of time to do so let's focus on some conference odds here Try to pin down who's going to go to the championship in the west The Lakers are plus 160 the Clippers plus 170 the heavy favorites to win the conference Would you ride with either of those two teams at their current odds? Or is there a long shot who you think could dethrone one of those LA teams? Well, here's the deal. I think the Clippers are going to go. I just love that that roster makeup. I love their depth They can play different styles Lou Williams is such an X factor for me. I mean It's impossible to call him underrated because the the career that he that he's had But Lou Williams is going to be just deadly in these situations. He can heat up in a hurry We know what Paul George and Kauai Leonard especially healthy are going to be able to do So if I if I were to if you were to ask me right now, who's going from the west I would say the Clippers and and I'm not alone in that thinking obviously But to me that the other two teams to look at are And are the nuggets and Um Just lost my turn of thought so What else about the nuggets? Well, yeah, let's start with the nuggets. So so so the nuggets It obviously starts with the Joker. I mean, he's he's coming in tremendously healthy But him and Jamal Murray are able to do the two-man game They just create a lot of matchup problems for you There just aren't other bigs that can that can face up with with the nuggets in in the west And so that's an issue, but then the Rockets are the other ones because they play so loose and We know and I know we're dealing right now with just the superstars But the thing is is I talked about roleplayers are going to play loose the Rockets already play loose They already play this style and you know what kind of efforts you're going to get from Russell Westbrook You know what James Harden is going to do over the course of these games It's almost like what I said about roleplayers and having these outlier experiences I think for the Rockets perspective their superstars are going to take it up a notch Plus they've already committed themselves to playing small ball. That's that's what they've decided to do Robert Covington now using him at the five. This team is just so Unique in terms of their their build and their and their setup and the fact that they're going to be able to play fast The fact that they can score at a crazy rate. I just really like what what it is that That the Rockets are going to be able to bring to the table And so the way I'm sort of looking at this is like I almost think we have to start from square one and say Forget everything we just learned if you were to take all these rosters right now Especially because we've had an offseason. We don't know how that's going to impact teams But it's almost like the you know game at the back of the bus that you'd play like Whether we were in east high school or what have you where you sit there and go Hey, if everybody was together in a neutral tournament How would this thing shake out and if you look at it that way and you start to take away home court advantage You start to take away. Who's the favorite? Who's the pressure on and all of a sudden you lose all that just say Hey empty gym It's almost like pickup like all these teams are going at it Who would you favor and I and I look at right now the Rockets and nuggets as two teams that could certainly threaten So if I were to go more of a long shot pick I'd go there, but my my first choice is is the clippers Excellent stuff. Let's go over to east. The bucks are minus 165 to win the east I believe that they've been the best team in the NBA for the last two seasons Really could have done better last year Is anyone going to challenge them in the east? I mean, look, there's so many variables right now that of course that that a team could potentially challenge them We know like I said, what the sixers all of a sudden who look those sixers biggest weaknesses They couldn't win on the road. They had a terrible road record The first half of the year they were they were just not very good on the road and did well at home Well, now all of a sudden that's a non factor. It's a non starter for them. You know defensively. They're going to be great Ben Simmons adds a lot Defensively plus you've got your lmb to who's now healthy You've got the t-style who I think is one of the most underrated defensive players in the NBA Thought he'd be a game changer coming in the kid from Washington and and we've seen that so defensively They can certainly get after you and if Ben Simmons is playing power forward They are committed to actually doing that and it's not just lip service Then it's also going to give a look that's sort of unique and I don't know that any teams can sort of say Hey, the look we're providing with our superstar is different than what you've seen in the past And so that becomes an x factor Celtics of course are going to be a difficult matchup But when I look at the bucks, I'm with you Ed. I mean you're talking about a team that best offensive rating in the mba Best pace they scored a really high clip and like I said, yannis is such a game changer offensively and defensively You can basically get wherever he wants on the floor do whatever he wants on the floor And then they have contributions from just so many people that's that's crazy pat conneton You know lopez Eric bled so they the fact of the matter is that never mind chris middleton They could just throw so many weapons at you. They're so deep and so it doesn't matter if they have guys that are having off shooting Knights they'll just replace them and it doesn't really matter now typically in the playoffs Your bench shortens up that we know that the rotation shortened, but here's again the difference I don't know that you have to do that anymore the reason you typically would Shorten your rotation as you get the most out of the guys that that you know, you can count on well again If you're not worried about performance on the road or travel or You know fatigue and those kinds of things then like All these guys can play so they're all going to play and that's still going to be an advantage for the bucks and playoff time So stick with those bucks and talk about the mba championship because they are obviously the favorites right now We got the lakers and the clippers all three teams plus three 20 or shorter So adam just who you got win it all when all is said and done over in october I don't like the clippers. I I love what I mean paul george and and koala we could talk about what they do offensively and koala are shot against the sixers last year Sorry, ed. I know it's a sixers fan how that how that felt But but I but I look at those guys though and the big difference to me is what they're what they're able to do defensively And there's really nobody else in the league that can trot out two guys that are just shut down Shutdown players and those guys just don't exist in the mba. There's you can you can count on both hands How many guys that you can put on a superstar? 101 and if they're really committed to locking them down over the course of the game that they can really impact them Defensively it's usually about team defense and it's usually the role you play in that in that regard But paul george and koala went healthy both of them have the ability really to just guard basically anyone on the floor and And cause just crazy matchup problems defensively and when you have two of them Uh, look, we just watched with the last dance what what the bulls were able to do with michael jordan and And scottie pipin and and obviously dentis rodman, you know, you start throwing those guys in it's the same It's sort of the same concept because it helps and in today's mba with all the switching that takes place and all Those guys are just lockdown defenders. They're gonna lock down their man. So whether it's lebron They pose a problem for or whether it's um, going to be honest like the fact of the matter is they can You're never gonna stop them But they can neutralize Your superstar and then they have another elite defender that can also do the same for for someone else who you're hoping for as a second A second tier guy that can also be a secondary scorer for you So I think that that's a huge advantage for the clippers and like I said Then you throw lu Williams in which we know he's gonna have some monster games come playoff time And um, I just I really like their depth. I like the clippers a lot So adam's been talking about the clippers since Last off season when when all these things happened. So definitely very consistent there before we let you go adam The clippers are a four point dog against the lakers tomorrow night Uh, based on what you said or maybe there's some, you know, some situations with the player Not playing you find some value in clippers plus four against the lakers, you know, I typically would but It'd be really hard to bet against lebron james when all of a sudden the lights are brightest against the fellow la team I like the clippers over the course of a series Against the lakers, but I just think in a one game setup There's so much riding there wasn't a person in the mba who wanted the mba Excuse me to return more than lebron did when you think about it His legacy is on the line here And I don't know that you could say that and I say on the line I mean we know where his legacy stands, but i'm saying for him personally Because I think he always looks at these challenges. How does he match up as people are going to rate him against michael jordan? And if you really think about it now lebron has won With two different teams. This would be the third team that he's won with it'd be his fourth mba title And and in addition to those things he could do the one thing that jordan can say that he never did and that is You know win one in the bubble when when everything was that it's craziest And and the same thing doesn't really apply when you look around to the other superstars kawaii letter To yanis to james harden those those same things though don't apply and I think we may look at this year We will look at this year as having an asterisk on it But if lebron wins it it's only going to enhance his legacy whereas if it's only yanis's only title Let's say we might look back and say yeah, but it was it was in the bubble A an extra motivated lebron james is a terrifying terrifying thought for a lot of people That is adam stanko. Make sure you follow him on twitter at naysmith lives or is it lives lives They smith lives naysmith lives. There we go. All right. That is adam stanko. Follow him there adam I appreciate it. Thanks for the time today and enjoy the nba again tomorrow. This was awesome. Thanks for having me on guys Thank you. Appreciate it covering the future Big thank you once again to adam stanko for coming on and previewing the nba bubble down in orlando Check out his podcast called rejecting the screen wherever you get your podcast net I was refreshed to hear that there's another student council nerd on the podcast because I I was that as well. It was a very small high school So I don't know if it actually counts that it was on student council But we're just we're locked and loaded with student government here. Yeah, absolutely And I'm probably the last time I was involved in student government too. So but uh, yeah as a senior in high school Student council president at west jester east high school. Yep If you don't believe me, there's still a picture that you don't even need to get into the building to see Yeah, when I when I uh, I ran for a class president, which is separate a separate from student council Didn't realize I had to plan the reunions um after that so Mistakes were made if you are a high school student this podcast a probably shouldn't because i'm not sure if it's like legal for you to Bet anyway independent of that Consider planning reunions when you run for those things because five years down the line You might be a little annoyed about that. I'll just put it that way Uh, but big thank you once again to adam for swinging by and breaking down the nba and ed today for covering the future More nba talk because you want to talk about the milwaki bucks And it sounds like you may be into them despite the short odds. So what draws you towards milwaki with where they currently sit? Well, milwaki's been the best team in the nba over the past two seasons Uh, it it's verified by the numbers. We talked about that in a little bit But, you know, they lost in the playoffs of toronto last year. Toronto came out with a great plan It was um the one series where yanis really couldn't get where he wanted. Toronto just had a defensive plan Ready for him. I still think it was a little bit flukish. I think milwaki was definitely the better team but everything just kind of fell, uh Everything worked out for toronto last year. If you think about the last second shot that hit against philly At the uh game seven I had a great great series against milwaki and then, um, you know, the luck of having a bunch of the stars of the warriors Not playing last year still milwaki is the best team in the nba when you look at margin of victory adjusted for strength of schedule These are the team rankings that I published over at my site the power rank milwaki is about 1.7 points better than the lakers And we can just look at, you know, the difference in ratings because everything is is a neutral site in this boat But ed you might be saying well, you know, lebron hasn't played every game. There's load management And I would say yes, that's true But I've actually been messing around with some calculations where I look at market and the closing point spreads and then I actually account for only games in which your star players have played So for the lakers that's going to be lebron and anantha davis for the bucks That's going to be honest and and chris milton And when they have those both their key players, I can take the closing point spreads Adjust for who they played same strength of schedule adjustments that that I always do And and then rank those teams and the bucks are still a point and a half better So the markets think that the bucks are a point and a half better Unless you think lebron is all of a sudden going to become superman in the player I mean he already is superman great player But the other thing that you should think about I think to to to make the lakers the favorite You really have to think that lebron's going to take it up a significant notch in the playoffs Not out of the question, but um, I I still like Milwaukee Also, walkie has a much clearer road in the east You can kind of just see that in the fan dual odds Just the likelihood they are to to make the finals and win the eastern conference The west has all the other good teams in the mba Adam talked a lot about the clippers. He thinks they're a great team The rockets the nuggets all these teams could make the path really difficult for the lakers Now normally I would take these numbers. I would crank out, you know Some win probability based on the playoffs. I've done that in the past I'm not going to this year because I think the case is clear Like this is the best team in the weaker conference I think there's value up Milwaukee Definitely shop around a little bit. Um, I think there are some probably some of the best odds I sell over at bed online So but I definitely like Milwaukee to Win the NBA championship this year They're plus 240 at fangirls sportsbook. Is that an appropriate number based on the numbers you've run yourself? Well, I mean, I think that's a pretty sharp number. So I'm just saying shop around because right You have options you have options exploit set options I think the other thing that is a positive for Milwaukee is kind of something that adam was talking about where the depth is so good that They don't have to burn their guys out whereas LeBron in that that series inevitable series against the clippers Like is a LeBron going to be playing like 43 minutes a game at that point? Can you do that for two straight series? That's hard. Um, so I think that the logic of taking the team with the path at least resistance Especially here when there are two really really good teams in the western conference So they can make sense to kind of play that narrative and go with the bucks based on that Yeah, absolutely. And and you know a lot of my numbers thinks that Houston's probably a better team With their two superstars than anyone else in the east except from Milwaukee Right. So that that's certainly if that you know, that ends up being I guess the second round matchup That's going to be hard as well. Yeah, absolutely. All right. So Ed likes the bucks make sure you Shop around try to find the best number on that but again They are plus 240 at fangirls sportsbook my covering the future for this week is talking some golf We got the wgc fedex saint jude invitational the mouthful is coming up this week It's a really good feel because it is a wgc event So bigger names have some longer numbers tied to them But even considering that I think I want to dive in on Brooks Kepka at 31 to 1 and Kepka is that long for a reason and that reason is he has said flat out Doesn't always try in non-major events. He's not always, you know Go 100% doesn't practice before them and this is not a major so hard to expect Kepka to give us all But he won this event last year But again, it wasn't because he had his best show He just happened to get super hot with the putter gained more than nine strokes putting you cannot Project that to continue. So if you're going to bet Kepka this weekend Do not bet him based on his win last year instead I want to focus on what he did last week specifically what he did with his t to green play And that may sound kind of weird because he missed the cut last week So using that as a justification for betting Brooks Kepka this week may seem kind of weird But in the two rounds that he played Kepka gained 5.3 strokes t to green gained 3.3 off the t and 1.8 on the approach The ball striking was really really good for Kepka and that's the more stable number But he lost 5.1 strokes putting we before that He lost 5.1 strokes around the green and so we've seen Kepka struggle with his short game That's not as sticky week to week as the ball striking numbers are the ball striking numbers as mentioned have been pretty good He also gained 6.9 strokes off the t in the rbc heritage Just about a month ago finished seventh there. So we know the upside is very much there for Kepka It's kind of has to actually try a little bit when it comes to the short game I also Wouldn't expect the putting to be as bad this week as it was last week because they're back on bermuda greens this week Which is the best putting surface for Brooks Kepka. He ranks 14th in the field in bermuda putting over the past 100 rounds That's according to fantasy national So if Kepka can bring the ball striking he had last week and parents with his general putting on bermuda We could see another really big week here and it's just kind of I think when you look at the odds and compare people around Kepka It's hard not to be intrigued even knowing that he may not try this weekend. He is in the same range as daniel burger He's in the same range as Colin Morikawa, Hideki Matsuyama, Tiro Hatton Those are all really good golfers burger Morikawa recent winners But they don't have the same upside the same ceiling as Kepka does when he's on so If Kepka were among the favorites I wouldn't touch him because I know he could just totally de-gaff at this entire weekend and not try But he's 31 to 1 I think that's long enough for me to take that risk for this weekend So I think Brooks Kepka makes a lot of sense to bet for the wgc fedex saint jude Invitational and I know ed is probably weird for me to be talking golf when we have NBA baseball hockey all these things going on But um, I don't know as much about NBA as you and Adam. So I figured I'd stick to to what I know better for this week Yeah, sounds good Yeah, I Things are still going on with NASCAR too. You can still bet ryan blaney if we're not talking about him here All this podcast It's an order based on your model, right? Absolutely. I will not this week This week it's more of a kyle bush week if you want one to kyle bush week for the first time this year but uh, I think that also talk myself into blaney because I am me and I know me But ed we've got nba mlb nhl just around the corner. We've finally got Sports back. I know I know obviously the virus is still Terrorizing this entire country, but it's nice to have that release Just kind of to think about something else for a couple minutes each day Yeah, absolutely and here in uh, and southeastern Michigan, uh, the Detroit Tigers are off to a pretty good start Been defying all the odds so far. Um, so that's been that's been nice and i'm looking forward to watching some nba Absolutely, so the next couple of weeks as long as uh, things stay on track should be a whole lot of fun That is all that we have for this week here on covering the spread back again next week though recording that one On wednesday, so make sure you are subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast apple podcast Spotify stitcher you name it. We are there and if you like what you hear Please leave a rating and review as well big. Thank you once again to adam stanko follow him on twitter at naysmithlives Check out his podcast rejecting the screen as well wherever you get your podcast ed What is going on for you this week over at the power? I saw you had a new article up. I think about three people shooting Yeah, so I talk about predictability versus skill So normally when we think about predictability, we take a statistic and we look at whether it correlates from season to season When we're trying to make preseason predictions um, and usually that's related to some underlying skill And but we get into problems with this especially with three point shooting So a three point shooting for players in the nba is very unpredictable from season to season But that's kind of mind boggling because we we know that it's a skill, right? We know that we will always take Steph Curry in a three point shooting contest over russia westbrook So what I did in the article was say, okay? Well, we have some notion of predictability even though You know the year-to-year correlation isn't exactly the best and I get into that but We have a different notion for skill and The notion is that we should look at the distribution of players and their three point shooting percentages And the more that we see extremes in that the more that we know its skill And I lay it out a little you know because if you have you know people that are You know nine standard deviations better than the nba average It's probably more skill in that it's not just randomness that's that's causing that so I get into it. Um, you can check that out over at the football analytics show. That's my podcast There's an audio version over at the power rank comm slash blog. There's a there's a written version Um, I think if you're ever going to check out one thing that I do I think you should check this out because I think it it's a different way of looking at this notion of skill and I oh and Um, it's kind of weird that I spent like almost 1800 words teasing something in in basketball Which I normally don't do to get at some stuff with football, but this this all matters for football This is this is why I did it And I'll be revealing those things in the next month And that's what I was thinking too is it's a concept that applies to more than just three-point shooting too So you can kind of double dip which is nice. All right, so Check that out in the football analytics show for the audio version and the power rank comm slash blog For the written version and make sure you follow it on twitter as well at the power rank there I am at jim sonnis j i m s a n n e s You can also follow the fan dual podcast network at a fan dual podcast big Thank you to calvin theobald our video producer for in the video side of things here today Thank you cal as always and thank you to everyone for tuning in you have made it to the nba restart That is back again tomorrow night. Enjoy the basketball. Good luck with your bets. We'll talk to you again next week This has been covering the spread right here on the fan dual podcast network