 The following is a presentation of TFNN the morning market kickoff With your host Tommy O'Brien Morning 9 0 6 a.m. We got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading and quite a positive trend quite a rebound When you look at the action we had on Monday, of course the sell-off Yesterday intraday Lowe's made at about 10 45 a.m. In the morning and you're talking about right now You're almost 100 points above where we were at just yesterday morning not to mention if you back things up You're talking about 150 points now from where we were on Monday's Lowe's And we back things up in terms of where we are in terms of all-time highs folks You're talking about only about 80 points you're talking about within about 2% of all-time highs NASDAQ 100 boy you talk about a move you back things up on a 15 minute 15,960 you're more than 800 points off of Monday's Lowe's when you back it up to just yesterday You're talking about almost 500 points as we inch towards 16,000 We'll go over the CPI data in a moment that we got at 8 30 this morning 7% inflation year-over-year Quite a number biggest number since 1982 we jumped to the Dow the Dow You're talking about 700 points off of the Lowe's that we had Monday Not quite the same acceleration as some of the other indices percentage wise you jump to the Russell Russell sitting right at 2200 you're talking about 75 points off Monday's Lowe's Bitcoin with quite a rebound you got below that critical 40,000 mark and just like that Bitcoin is up more than 10% Offer where we were the Lowe's on Monday crude. How about an 82 handover crude? Perfect We're gonna be talking to our man Teddy keg stat from forex dash trading dash unlock comm at 40 past the hour We always talk a little bit about the crude market. He's been a crude bull for a while In this crude market, man, you talk about a rebound seems like all Naturally, we would be on our way to at least the highs that we had recently at about 85 dollars Quite the pop include quite the rebound you had include you back it up I mean you're only talking about in December folks. We had a price of sixty two dollars We now had a price of eighty two dollars just like that You had twenty dollars in just over the span of about a month in that crude market as we inch towards recent highs of 85 bucks Gold contract with quite a day yesterday you put on the 15 minute gold charges higher gold sitting basically right near The highs we were yesterday you inch above that number barely the 1825 you back off a bit You got silver up 12 pennies silver adding about a dollar from where we were on Friday's action to 2293 and we jumped to the all-important notes and bonds chairman Powell yesterday in front of the Senate Committee for his renomination and The market liked what he was saying to say the least 10 year right now We're talking about a yield of 1.72 percent about 1.718 to be exact the yield on the 10 year We were approaching about 1.8 percent at some of the lows on Monday We started the year off about 1.4 to 1.5 percent so quite a rise in that context Let's jump over to the VIX this morning. We have the volatility index quite a spike on Monday as the market sold off And just like that we're under 18 1780 VIX important to remember predicated off the SMP when you have a predicated off the SMP You got the SMP sitting within 80 points of all-time highs you're up 22 points coming into the opening bell S&Ps are up half a percent NASDAQ 100 you're talking about nine tenths percent the Dow up about three tenths percent the Russell I'll pop up about half a percent. All right jumping over to the headline number this morning inflation Largest number since 1982 that was the same headline that we got for November CPI which had a number of six point eight percent this number comes in even hotter But right at expectations market analysts were looking for seven percent inflation for the month of December CPI hits that number that again highest number since 1982 7% largest 12-month gain since June of 1982 to be exact Point five percent for the month that was exceeding forecast which was point four percent I believe when you look at CPI in black you look at the core CPI data in pink you see the rise that we have you see it going back to 1982 let's pull it up They're talking about middle of the year 1982 and you can see that that was when we got that steep steep decline in the early 80s from Inflation out of control, but we are right back to those numbers and look at the core number in pink So that excludes food and energy energy as we all know through the roof I just talked about crude hit in 82 bucks right now Excluding that number the so-called core prices accelerated from a month earlier larger than forecast point six percent core is going up faster Than the market even anticipated the measure jumped five point five percent from a year earlier the core number That's the biggest jump since 1991 Increase in the CPI was led by higher prices for shelter and used vehicles a common theme recently food costs also Contributed energy prices which were key driver of inflation through most of 2021 fell last month so you've energy falling That's in the main line number though that still comes in at seven percent You take that out of the core number though in core actually beats with a higher number than the market was looking for the data bolster Expectations that the Fed will begin raising interest rates in March a sharp policy adjustment I mean that's one take on it right if it bolstered that the Fed was going to hike hike hike You wouldn't see the market accelerating higher So keep that in mind pretty much s at Estimated with the market wasn't looking for And yeah, you're sitting on an unemployment rate of just under four percent as we come into that number Let's jump around to some of the fang stocks as we kick things off We'll kick it off with Amazon quite a day for Amazon yesterday. I think you were up almost Two percent at one point on Amazon trading up almost a hundred bucks in the middle of the day Amazon shares You're talking about up two hundred and ten dollars from Monday's lows 33 34 you're gonna open almost 1% higher in the pre-market Microsoft shares quite a rebound as well. You were down to 304 on Monday. You gained $14 from that price point You're gonna open solid $3 and 60 cents higher. That's more than a 1% pop on Microsoft shares Let's see how Apple is trading this morning Apple with a nice pop you're gonna open more than a dollar 50. I mean look at these stocks Apple Microsoft Let's jump around to Google This is why you get the NASDAQ 100 up almost nine tenths percent right now Google 25 dollars. Yeah, eight tenths nine tenths all the fang stocks opening up Let's see how Facebook is trading this morning up about a couple dollars at 336. We chop over to Netflix I'm gonna open a bit higher at about 545 as well All right, let's jump around to some of the retail stocks Walmart shares gonna open a little bit Lower it looks like on a tick. We jump to Target shares 2228 a little bit higher. I think we get KB homes today with their earnings KB homes Gonna basically be flat right now jumping over to the analyze tab We got about a $2 move priced in just under a 5% move you jump over the earnings tab Yes, they are today out with their numbers. I believe let's put this on a short-term time frame not out yet I think they're out after the belt today KB homes out with their numbers about a $2 move priced in for their earnings Jumped told brothers told brothers this morning gonna open basically flat 69 63 Let's jump over to some of the banks as they come out on Friday JP Morgan 167 50 basically flat this morning as you get yield sitting in about 1.72 percent Bank of America as well city had quite a pop Yesterday you look at cities action right from about 66 to 68 52 last night on city shares trading higher back this morning to 6733 but still a little bit positive on the market. We jump to those notes and bonds as we come into this first break and Yeah, this is looking at five minute action. Look where we were on that 830 number You actually spiked to 128 12. You're right now at 128 18 So we actually have a little bit of higher price and lower yield on that CPI number on the 10 year right now as we're sitting at 1.7 2 3 percent on the 10 year alright folks. Stay tuned. We'll be coming back We'll be talking our man Kevin Hinks from TD Ameritrade fast market. 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Watch online at tfnn.com or on tfnn's YouTube channel and become the investor You were born to be tfnn educating investors Welcome back folks we get the S&P futures up 17 points right now Nasdaq futures up a solid 7 tenths percent 112 in the green at 15,943 bumping up against that 16,000 mark Let's jump over to our man Kevin Hinks every trading day folks 12 noon Eastern time Kevin Hinks Tom White the team at TD Ameritrade Network on fast market Breaking down the day's market action walking you through hypothetical trade setups talking about options talking about defined risk Kevin Hinks we got a CPI number out this morning and man a lot's happened in 24 hours since we talked to you yesterday. Good morning Good morning, Tommy O'Brien. Yeah, you know a couple things number one It's pretty evident that Jerome Powell has become proficient in delivering the right message that the market likes Even when it's a message that interest rates could be going higher He still presents it in a way that the market like and then we get today's CPI number and I think the market can be happy about a lot of things in the CPI number like Tommy the biggest Plus the biggest inflationary factor in the CPI number was used cars and trucks up three and a half percent new vehicles up 1% Most of the world can look at that number within the data tables and say That's not going to be forever Right cars use cars and trucks aren't going to go up forever And so then you look at apparel. Well apparel is up 1.7% Those are effective to supply constraints. Maybe those will dissipate over time. So When you look at what was up what was inflationary in today's report They all look like things that can be Discussed and talked away as not permanent Tommy It's pretty cool man the market reaction the rebound we got off some of the lows on Monday Just accelerated with you talking about Tuesday Monday yesterday, of course chairman Powell pretty strong words I think I saw one phrase and I'm probably not going to get it exactly right but that they'd be in a little he envisioned something about a low-entraced Environment for an extended period of time or so something to that tune which obviously the market loves to hear And things really took off I mean, it's important. It's important to your viewers if I could for what police The headlines that everyone's gonna read today, they're gonna beat you over the head with 7% inflation, right? That's the number that everyone's gonna talk about But remember 91% of this number is already we already knew right all they do with the year-over-year number is take the 12-month number away put in today's number and that adds up to the year-over-year number So we pretty much knew this number was gonna be high but Don't get scared of that because the market knew like I said 1112 or 91% of this number was already out there in the world So the fact that it was it was 0.8 a month ago came down to 0.5 and What and what made up that 0.5 is what this market is focusing on today Tommy? it's a great point man and the fact that I think it's coming pretty close to Estimates as well because if estimates go according to the next year then yeah They're at 7% right now, but the estimates are that they're gonna wane for the reasons some of which that you just stated So maybe the market saying okay. We're not missing like we missed last year To the tune of rapid accelerated inflation that was not in the estimates at the time It's in the estimates right now and over the core period of X amount of months, whatever that is Maybe it wanes and that's the argument and the market's going with the man in the Fed chair man Seems like he's going with it as well with that in mind Kevin. So we got CPI We got retail sales coming out Friday. We got some earnings trickling out. We got banks on Friday What are you guys talking about on fast market at 12 noon today? You know pre earnings before we get into earnings season and we do have one earnings We have Delta Airlines that like folio will do a presentation on today But we're really focused on the high profile names. That's one great thing about the beginning of earnings season So today we're gonna talk about Facebook like folio will do presentation on Delta And then we'll talk about PayPal in the third segment. So big names today as always Facebook man, I have been talking a lot about Kevin Kevin Facebook Kevin because I got an Oculus 2 for Christmas and So I am personally not a fan of Facebook in the way They've handled data and and and what goes along with all of all of the baggage that we all know they have But I'll tell you Kevin. It was pretty mind-blowing man. I've been talking about my friends I've talked about the viewers Because it's pretty immersive and I can see now why mr. Zuckerberg Sees that that may be the future because what I started thinking about Kevin is that you know I put on the headset and I got it for Christmas and you know I don't play a ton of video games But the immersive nature of even watching YouTube videos where I can literally sit in Rome on the Coliseum Right and you're sitting there and you're looking around and you're in 3d I said it's going to become an educational tool where you can literally sit in the Egyptian pyramids early as you learn about history It was pretty pretty mind-blowing man to see that experience. So that VR deal as Facebook comes into the meta There's my two cents on it. It's pretty cool. Have you tried the Oculus at all? Oh, I've had it on because TD Ameritrade has like a feature about it So I tried it at one of our events and it's You're right it it is really In it's incredible on your senses, you know, you're like whoa man. Yeah, it is it is incredible It's definitely something to get used to but man like I said, I get it too why he's doing that I imagine instead of turning on your computer and looking at your trading screen You put on the goggles and look at your trading screen It's coming and it's pretty cool Now what I also disclaimer that with as trading because your wall It's it's it's 360 degrees man at 8k plus right is the deal You know where I went from there Kevin I watched a YouTube VR video and the way the cool ones were 360 degrees at 8k So there was super high depth, you know, you're in the immersive you turn your head You're looking everywhere and then I went to man This is gonna be the future that all video is gonna be produced in that so then the cameras I'm looking at right of 8k 360 degree cameras, but I started imagining Kevin, you know for big events right for a wedding or something like that You are gonna start seeing people recording in this technology because how cool will it be that 10 15? 20 years down the road you snap on a headset or whatever technology exists and you literally walk through Your wedding or your whatever that event is right that it's gonna Become I mean it's just gonna become the standard bearer of that technology So it's pretty cool now as a trader though Kevin I said, you know what they're gonna be able to spend a lot of money on this man because it's gonna be kind of like that last Mile of making it perfect right because the person who makes it perfect That's like the the holy grail man if you if you can mimic real life But how much money how many billions if not trillions is gonna take to get there and I imagine mr. Zuckerberg He's willing to spend some cash if he thinks there's there's pot at the end of that rainbow man I'm a gold at the end of that rainbow well Kevin. I'm interested man I'll be watching the show today to get you guys take on Facebook Delta Airlines. We always look forward to the program man You have a great Wednesday Thanks for having me on Tommy have a great day you too Kevin take care folks every trading day 12 noon eastern time fast market Kevin Higgs Tom White should be an outstanding program I look forward to seeing what they have to say about Facebook if you've been listening to my program At least since after Christmas pretty pretty fascinating technology But how much are they gonna have to spend to make it perfect because there's a lot of technology to go for that last mile To make it perfect right now. You have his headsets. You're gonna be wearing suits, right? So you can get sense, you know, you can feel sensation across your body if you're in an environment, etc There's a lot of technology to go But we're right on the cusp of some pretty cool stuff if you have not tried one I encourage you to give it a try because it's pretty enlightening to try and discover where that technology is going because It is computer screens. It's just gonna be immersive technology and then you add Not even just virtual reality, right? Augmented reality the glasses then provide you look through to reality And then you add augmented things in technology in there stage and folks will be right back for the open Are you having fun trading the markets? 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We got markets open. We get the s&p futures opening up about 17 points right now That's about three tenths percent nasdaq 100 up about seven tenths percent just under the 16,000 mark 115 points in the green to get the dow up about three tenths percent 115 points in the green as well in the russell up about six tenths percent We jumped to bitcoin holding well right about 44,000 you look you're talking about more than 10 percent From where we were yesterday. Maybe a little bit of a moment of truth We'll see if we come back down and test that moment of truth again at 40,000 on bitcoin You got a therium Quite a pop as well therium's up more than 10 percent from that low yesterday as well crude sitting comfortably just near 82 dollars remarkable acceleration and crude continues to higher prices and gold 1822 right near the highs of Yesterday near the close as well. All right jumping around to what else we have happening today We jumped to door dash door dash. That's a solid almost 6 pop door dash gets an upgrade Evercore uh upgraded upgraded to outperform from in line Delivery service strong fundamentals and the stock is an attractive valuation and separately facebook was named um named door dash ceo tony sue Chew sue to its board of directors interesting so you got the ceo of door dash is now a On the board at facebook but the real Impact there is that you got an upgrade talking about that company strong fundamentals and attractive at the valuation door dash up to 151 you take a look at a little longer term time frame here And that's what they're talking about when they talk about valuation because you were just at 257 Exactly two months ago Right. Uh, no close almost two months ago within two months ago. November 15th 257 25 Two days ago, you were 120. I mean remarkable, right? This is where some of the lows You're talking about an equity that just popped 30 Dollars from 121 that is a remarkable pop for door dash, but there you go Uh, maybe maybe evercore was in there Buying at at a portion of it when you were down at those valuations Which is the reason why you got some of the pop that you did but of course the market turned around about 2.5 to almost 3 Percent the pop you got in the market from the lows over there as well All right, what else we got jumping down the equity list of some Companies that are making moves You got ditty trading higher in the pre-market on reports that's in talks for a second quarter Hong Kong IPO As it continues to process the delisting from the nyse Yeah, listen be careful of these equities, but there is an opportunity That's that's that's putting it lightly. Did he have five percent? But you talk about an opportunity. I am not looking for opportunities to buy an equity that looks like this Um, you know, you're you're talking super long term. Maybe you're trying to Find a bottom here some company like Alibaba You know, you're back to so some pretty Ridiculous pricing when you talk about you back to may of 2017 prices for Alibaba Does it even go back further than that? I don't think it does Yeah, I guess it does I mean, look, you're back to 2014. You're back to almost 2014 prices in Alibaba. It was trading at 120 We were trading at 120 at the end of last year for Alibaba I mean China they put the clamp down and just morally I don't think I would be investing in these companies supporting. Unfortunately. What's going on over in China but They need economic success for the future as well They've just kind of recalibrated how that's going to occur and the valuations that the market had in it as g kind of Flexed his muscles to let everybody know who was in charge But they need economic growth in a big way and and g knows that as well So there there will be companies that succeed out of that and there's your gaps on Alibaba as it pops continually, but You know, if you're in them be aware that you can lose 50 75 That's that's what you have to realize if you're making those types of trades And of course you do when you're getting these types of pops I mean you just traded from 108 to 138 You just gained 25 to 30 percent almost to start the year if you're looking for those types of returns You better be aware that you're risking some substantial losses on the downside as well when you're trading Chinese equities right now All right, what else we got going on? Let's see Yeah, biogen now this one is going to be a controversial one that will be talked about for some time So biogen's lower Medicare said last night that they're going to only partially cover the new Alzheimer's drug talk about a mess on The the hands of of many involved There's your pop when this thing gets approved. We're all probably somewhat familiar with the fact that it's become a big controversy And you had people quitting over at the FDA advisory panel the advisory panel wanted more data They were overruled. It was approved by the FDA It's the first Alzheimer's drug in many many years to say the least. I don't even know how long it should long long time um horrible diagnosis That is terminal no real Treatment options so you can see how something being approved like that the first treatment option a long time Now what you have happened is the FDA approves it and then Medicare usually covers FDA approved Medicines and what happens is is you have private insurance companies Then use Medicare as the standard for what they cover many times So this is going to end up potentially impacting people on private insurance as they just make their decision off of where Medicare makes it Then you look at the people that are Going to need this possible treatment or want it because the age group they fall in and because of Medicare and the age group That people are on in Medicare 80 percent of the people that are going to be potentially taking this drug would qualify for Medicare It's a tough deal It seems like that it has not proven That it is effective What it's proven is that it might impact the symptoms that Alzheimer's present Which they think Is the reason for Some of the harm that that does and i'm putting it in like the most plain terms I can from a general general understanding of things. I could be completely Misconstruing some of what the argument is because it's so technical bottom line is This one is an unfortunate situation when you now have the FDA approving medicine that Medicare won't cover That's an unfortunate situation as you move forward to say the least and that's what happens with biogen And it'd be interesting to see how this plays out in the future Dish dish and direct tv once again emerge a toxic according to sources the satellite tv TV companies have held on and off talks periodically over the last 20 years dish and direct tv with the latest rounds Said to be pushed forward by direct tv's minority owner tbg capital dish Drain hire in the pre-market. We jumped over There's a pop up 2.9 percent. You were higher yesterday as well. You give back some of those gains this morning Let's see how some of the fang stocks are opening up in the nasdaq up 130 amazon adding about four tenths percent Back on a 15 minute chart 33 19. Let's see how microsoft is opening up this morning up 1.6 percent. There's a pop for you Microsoft it's you know apple's trading up about seven tenths percent google shares up 1.3 percent man You got some real acceleration if you got google up 1.3 You got microsoft up 1.6 Should almost be up more than 120 points in the nasdaq 100 Excuse me, but nonetheless There we sit. Let's jump over even market watch Jump into the indices Nasdaq 100 Yeah, look at this. So facebook in the red, but barely by four 100ths of a percentage point You got microsoft up 1.35 apples up half a percent Google up a full percent amazon up half a percent teslas up 1.5 percent What do we have lower? We got some of the what fintech you got paypal a little bit lower You got five serve a little bit lower by a percent You have pepsi a little bit lower Monster barely unchanged. It looks like but yeah the juggernauts in nvidia up 1.6 percent This market could easily be up even a little bit higher with how you have some of the juggernaut Big big companies up here up more. You're only looking at an index right now up seven tenths to eight tenths percent meanwhile You got the biggest company second biggest company in the world out there right up more than one percent Stay tuned folks. We'll be talking forex when we come back with our man teddy cakes that we'll be right back Are you in the market for buying or selling real estate in the bay area? Including the surrounding st. 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Good morning Good morning. Tommy. We got a lot to talk about today I bet we do man. I was jumping around. We got to move Of course this morning in the dollar and some action But man, we got some moves to kick off the new year to say the least Where do you want to kick things off that teddy? Oh, okay? Well, obviously the dollar's definitely been under pressure for the past couple days I would like to start with the us dollar canada. You had a textbook head and shoulders pattern that was confirmed yesterday You got a nice little follow through to the downside today And you're aiming towards a 200 day moving average. You're not too far away from that So I would be mindful of any us dollar canada trader out there that um, even if we get some dollar strength I don't think you're gonna find that in the us dollar canada I think you have a nice short term downtrend. Um, remember that it's been kind of Neutral for the past couple of months trying to become a bull And I really don't see that that's going to be able to manifest anytime soon I think you're really going to be banging on support on that one So that's definitely a key market to look at for as far as the forex market is concerned nice Yeah, quite a pullback recently from almost 130 to 125, right? But you get that lower 123 back there recently towards the end of last year Right, right. So now now when we go back to the other currencies, it's pretty interesting If you look at the euro, it finally had a breakout to the upside today Okay, now the pound has been trending for already to pass basically five six sessions The us dollar swiss, you know, all in all, if you look at the euro and the swiss They've basically been in a very tight range for the past three four months And right now you have the euro us dollar that is finally breaking out to the upper part of that range I would not expect much follow through on this move. I think you have maybe at the best We could get up to probably around 115 25 possibly is a top for the euro us dollar because there's a lot of nuances that I think they're going to put a drag on the euro Okay So now the british pound obviously because of oil I think is going to be very strong moving forward over the next couple of months I mean, we have oil now is hit that up into the $80 level In that new range, and I think we'll be pushing 90s before we see it You don't know it in the next like week or two, you know, and if that if we get that follow through I would expect to see strength in the british pound us dollar continue Okay, the euro us dollar like I said, though, I don't think that's going to be a big driver So so right now the dollar index is very reflective of the fact that other currencies are gaining on the dollar Currently in the short run. Okay. I would expect to see some divergence as far as a dollar index Is concerned probably A rising after this week you got to remember we have a lot of economic numbers that come out today tomorrow and friday You know, so I mean and then it's not just in the u.s It's also in in the eu and also in the uk So now we already know that we have the fed leading towards raising rates Three maybe four times this year as far as goldman brought up this recently, you know So that that's already factored into the market Okay, but the oil trade is definitely on the on the table there And if that if we don't see a pullback in oil It doesn't matter if the if the if the interest rates do have a big significant move or not You're going to see a big bounce again in the u.s. Dollar yen Like notice how the dollar is selling off and we have a breakout in the euro We have a sell-off in the swiss. We have a rally in the pound Australian dollars making a new move high today But if you if you look at the u.s. Dollar yen, it's not getting battered at all You know it's holding up and that's because of the oil trade, you know I mean no matter what interest rates are already factored in so now definitely oil becomes a factor And I think you're going to see this divergence that as the pound for instance Continues to be a bull moving forward as oil does at least until it gets to around the 100 to 105 level I think once you get into that area, then you'll probably see the pound fall back You know as far as the oil trade and even in the yen, but until we get to that those levels I think the trend is going to keep on going Yeah, quite the move in oil man this pound even quite the move from 131 to 136 just like that Lots of green bars involve very few red bars and crude I mean things got a little dicey there going back to where we were in terms of 62 You're talking about back in december 2nd. It's only january 12th. You're back to 82 We have that recent highs of 85 bucks But now that we're above 81 82. I mean the last six weeks teddy I know you know, but it's just been constant higher prices there $100 very natural number seems like in our head. We haven't seen it in a while We were over that number for a long period of time and Seems like it might be on its way to to at least the recent highs 85 bucks In the near future might be and if not, you know pushing it even higher from there So with the cpi dead out this morning, of course, we have the dollar pulling back a little bit putting bids in that How do you see, you know the the inflation story playing out over the next Weeks or months as as that pushes into the dollar. Do you see the inflation as it wanes? I think we're going to continue to go on like we did last year I think that everything pretty much is going to double again over the course of the next year You know, I really do. I think you're going to see it a lot in the soft commodities in the meats I think you're going to see it in all of the hard metals and stuff like that a lot of the stuff that you use in production I really think that in the in the tangible sense of of of the economy for commodities Especially you're going to see at least 50 percent inflation if not 100 inflation over the course of the next year Which then is going to factor in here's the thing We haven't seen a lot of inflation yet. Tommy and that really worries me is that What happens when the service sector starts to hit with inflation? You know, like we we all know what that when we go to the grocery store the gas pump Or you're buying goods that we've had it, you know But if you look at relative services, there hasn't been that much inflation Well, pretty soon people who were in the service industry are going to be like well everything I do in my life I have to pay twice for double now. You know, they're going to be like, why wouldn't I charge more money now? You know, so and I think that that when that hits We really are going to have a big slowdown in the economy because it's just going to be such a drag You know, and especially with we have that we have an economic or excuse me an employment Situation now we've never had in this country before we have people that don't want to return to work And then we have people that are being removed from work because of a choice You know, whether you get mandate whether you put it whatever mandate you want to put down on people If it impacts employment, you know, this is going to also impact inflation Supply chains now we're not even worried about supply chains coming globally We're going to have our own supply chain issues within the country, you know So and that I think is something that's going to pan out huge And it's not going to really hit us too much over the next three months But I think that definitely by the second and third quarter We're going to be looking back at 2021 and being like, oh, why couldn't we just have that inflation? But watch out if that comes in man because what's right What's so interesting too just in light of pretty much what you're saying is that Uh, the estimates right now You know, we just hit seven percent, but that was the estimate So the market can trade higher when we have a cpi number that's seven percent year over year But that number is supposed to come down dramatically So it's not hard to hit the estimates in the market to be okay when cpi is supposed to be seven percent folks But where are we going to be and that's where I you know I can't wait as a trader when we're coming into some of those reports whether it's cpi whether it's you know wage data Um that we're supposed to see and time flies man. We're going to be there before we know it We're supposed to see some pretty rapid decreases this coming year. Um, maybe we'll start getting to the section of You know next year that we'll have some comps that might help that out a little bit in terms of where we are But time is coming man, and we got to hit those numbers and and we'll see what happens Right. Well, teddy. I appreciate the conversation as always man, and we look forward to talking to you next week US dollar yen 122, baby 122. All right. I'm gonna write it down. We're gonna pull it up next week when we chat with you Wednesday, man All right. We're gonna be teddy. Thanks, man. Stay tuned folks. 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You can call 877-518-9190 That's 877-518-9190 This segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information Just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com Welcome back folks. We have the s and p's of 26 points right now That's more than half a percent the green to get the nasdaq 100 up three quarters percent right now in the dow up Half a percent as well jumping around to other articles I was reading this morning want to talk real quickly about apple So apple they're in a potential bid for the major league baseball's weekday package could bring a big new player into live Sports you're going to see it happen folks. There is nothing like live sports Uh in terms of a necessity to view it live as in can you imagine whatever? Company pays for the rights of the nfl and the nfl is so smart that they don't give it to any one company They give you sunday night somebody gets monday night two companies get Sunday football right they diversify themselves. They're very intelligent But the point being is you don't watch live sports on replay some people do But you need to watch that live in the moment. So if you're a streaming service and you own A live sports package You don't have the ability as a consumer of that package to cancel at any point in time if you enjoy that live sporting It's it's going to be interesting to see how the live sports plays into thing But that is a commodity unlike anything else in the streaming platform It's part of the reason why I like disney as well because their ownership of espn gives them access to that now man You got to pay for that content and they're going to be fighting with apple now They're going to be fighting with netflix etc But having espn in there espn being able to license their brand for sports betting etc That's pretty cool as well this article two i was reading about this one came out yesterday But this is talking about jp morgan fixed income chief warning on the fed's move to cut inflation Saying that hiding cash might not be that bad right now with the way the yields are going up and bond prices are going down 1.76 6% is where it was at as as of the time of writing this the one thing I wanted to point out He says the 10 year could be as high as 3% this year 3% man that 10 year hits 3% this year watch out for some of those growth stocks folks The the base case most of wall street looking for about 1.87 2.3 But guess what we just went from 1.5 to 1.8 and it's only january 12th All right, folks. Thanks so much for starting your trading day with me. Stay tuned. We got live programming all day should be another interesting one in the market S&P's 77 points away from all-time eyes right now remarkable We got basal Chapman upcoming coming up right now with the tiger technicians our folks Stay tuned. We'll be right back. Have a great wednesday