 Welcome traders to the Tick Mill weekly market outlook for week commencing the 6th of March. Financial markets are fully buying into the Federal Reserve's higher for longer narrative on interest rates with US two-year Treasury yields, fast approaching 5% and the 10-year yield breaking back above 4%. Strong activity at the start of the year and a surprise jumping core inflation now means that 25 basis point rate hike at the March, May and June FOMC meetings are the minimum expectations from the FOMC. In fact, markets are pricing a 25% chance that the Fed moves by 50 basis points at the March FOMC meeting. There are two events to watch in the week ahead that will have an important bearing on the near term outlook for monetary policy. Firstly, Federal Reserve Chair Powell will be appearing before Congress to present the central bank's semi-annual monetary policy report. His testimony will be closely followed for hints as to whether he thinks there should be a re-acceleration in the Fed's policy tightening or whether having hiked rates so far so far so that the more modest 25 basis point incremental moves remain the most sensible course of action to take. He will be appearing before the Senate on Tuesday and then the House of Representatives on Wednesday. After that, all eyes will turn to the February jobs report, US payrolls likely to mean revert to a still firm pace in February after the unexpected 517k surge in January. Also look for the unemployment rate to stay unchanged at 3.4% and wage growth to printer strong 0.4% month over month. So from a technical perspective, if we look at the dollar index, we are still tracking this corrective cycle whilst we have the swing loan place at 102.40s. We are looking for a test of 105.50s. So look in the early part of the week to find support into the 103.90s, 103.80s for this final extension up into our target zone 105.50s. And as long as we maintain the negative momentum divergence, we'll be watching for bearish reversal patterns in this area to engage on the short side. First downside objective is going to be a test of this projected ascending trend channel support 103.50s. At this stage, any direct loss of this trend channel support through 103 will be a bearish development suggesting that we already have the corrective high in place for the dollar index. Then we look for a retest of the 102.39s swing low ahead of the high volume node at 101.70s. Moving to the Eurozone. Very light data slate there this week. We have on Monday generally retail sales month over month. Yeah. And the year over year percentage looking for negative 2.7 to negative 2.8 on that print. And then on Wednesday we get Q4 GDP revised. And that's pretty much going to be quarter over quarter flat at 0.1%. So from a technical perspective with the Euro dollar similar or the inverse really to the dollar index, we're looking for a test of the equality objective versus the swing high 108.07 gives us 104.30s. So I'd be looking for any early strength to fade below the 107 handle for the last leg to the downside to test into our quality objective from there. As long as you maintain bullish momentum divergence, I'll be watching for bullish reversal patterns in this area to engage on the long side looking to take out the trend channel resistance back through 105.70s on route then to test the high volume node 107.30s and then on to our potential B wave high at the 108.005. Moving to the UK in terms of data for the week ahead, we have GDP set for release UK economic output fell sharply in December and probably only partially rebounded in January. Admittedly, these monthly GDP figures have been hard to read owing to distortion surrounding both the Queens funeral last September and then obviously the World Cup. That December plunge however means that the economy is likely to register an overall first quarter GDP decline. The underlying trend in the economy appears to be one of very gradual contraction thanks in part to ongoing downtrend in retail spending. Markets are expecting a technical recession in the UK in the first half of this year, albeit one that's not much to write home about. The fall in Holter gas prices should help consumer bills fall by the summer which should limit further damage to consumer spending from a technical perspective. Sterling holding triple bottom almost in place now here at the 1.19.20s so I'm looking for any retest into this support zone to actually fail and then we are looking for our downside equality objective 1.17.82 versus our swing high here at 1.22.70s. At this stage it would really take a close through the range resistance that we have in place at the moment 1.21.40s to suggest that we already have a more meaningful low in place and then we'd be thinking about a retest of that 1.22.60s. Moving to Japan in terms of the data slate this week it's really going to be all about the BOJ policy decision. It's unlikely that the BOJ will rock the boat at this meeting even as CPI inflation hit a 41 year high. Governor Karoda at his last meeting will likely keep policy unchanged with further changes having to wait for the incoming governor Ueda starting in April. Markets expect that the BOJ could shift the top end of the yield curve control band again in the months ahead potentially as early as April but we're looking for rates to remain at 0.1% and the 10-year yield target to remain flat at 0%. From a technical perspective Dolly N came just shy of the equality target at 1.37.20s could still see one more push up into that area which would complete a technical pattern here three pushes into a high and as long as we maintain that bearish momentum divergence we watch for bearish reversal patterns at that 1.37.20s to engage. On the short side first stop is going to be a test of the projected ascending trendline support coming in now at 1.34.90s. Any immediate loss of this trend channel support would be a bearish development opening move back down to test 1.32.80s as the next downside objective and rounding out the data slate down under in Australia we get the RBA decision the focus will be on whether the RBA softens its language in light of recent weaker data on the back of the widening breadth and persistence in inflation the cash rate in Australia remaining below comparable G10 economies and the Australian economy more likely to benefit from China's reopening so we're looking for the rate to the cash rate to be maintained at 3.6% when the announcement is made on Tuesday from a technical perspective the Aussie dollar looks poised to test its internal equality objective versus this current swing structure at giving us a test now of the 67.90s from there we're going to watch for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side looking for one more push to the downside giving us a test of 66.30s from there watch for bullish reversal patterns as long as we maintain momentum divergence we will then look for a break of the trend channel resistance 67.70s on to the next upside objective of the high volume node at 68.90s and then we'll be looking for that B wave high to be tested at 70.29 and just rounding out our review here let's check in with Bitcoin our weekend risk barometer and Bitcoin obviously took took some losses the back end of last week based on the the Silvercrest and an announcement with respect to concerns about the contagion still spilling over from the FTX debacle but from a technical perspective we are looking for Bitcoin to test and maintain support at the 21,490s and then from there we're looking for this final upside extension for this leg to test the yearly pivot from below just below 27,000 and that concludes the weekly market outlook for week commencing the 6th of March as always traders plan the trade, trade the plan and most importantly manage your risk until next week thanks very much