 Welcome to another Tick-Mail Weekly Market Outlook for week commencing the 14th of February with me, Patrick Munnerley. Before we jump into the data, it's worth noting that over the weekend President Joe Biden and Russia's Vladimir Putin had now a long telephone call on Saturday. Putin told Biden that the West would respond decisively to any invasion of Ukraine, adding such a step would produce widespread suffering and isolate Moscow. Neither side said there had been any breakthroughs. The senior Biden administration official said the call was professional and substantive, but there was no fundamental change. The Kremlin said Putin told Biden that Washington had failed to take Russia's main concerns into account and had received no substantial answer on key elements of its security demand. Washington ordered most of its staff on Saturday to leave Ukraine immediately due to the threat of an invasion. Of course, peace is preferable as the first order of focus, but the immediate focus has on potential implications for markets and also central bank policy stances, including the feds. In keeping with the line that history has a tendency of repeating itself, it's useful to potentially draw lessons from when Russia invaded the Crimean Peninsula in 2014, with the obvious lack of any assurances that this time will necessarily repeat that experience. Recall that tensions intensified over February through March to 2014. The buildup of tensions and the ensuing invasion drove a brief rally in the US 10-year Treasury note from a peak of 3.03% at the end of 2013 to about 2.58% by early February for stabilizing in the 2.45-2.6% range until June. Federal Reserve had commenced tapering bond purchases at the December 2013 meeting and was unwavering in its commitment towards continued tapering over 2014 until net purchases concluded towards the end of the year. Low Treasury yields may have incited this policy stance given that they were deemed unsuitable for the conditions of the domestic economy at the time. There was a similarly mild and short-lived response in stocks and at the time of other developments, the S&P 500 sold off by another 6% from its late January lows through early February 2014 and then went on to rally for the remainder of the year. These market moves weren't all about Russian-Ukraine tensions, they may have only been minimally driven by such circumstances. Recall that oil prices collapsed later in the year as the Saudis sought to drive US shale producers out of business, emerging markets were also in turmoil. Chair Yellen dropped her six-month guidance for how soon the Fed could commence hiking. The policy rate after ending bond purchases, the ISIS invaded Iraq in June 2014. But the possible takeaway is that the potential return of this geopolitical risk could be a tactical and relatively short-lived trade that fails to knock the Federal Reserve off its course while it remains wedded to achieving its dual mandates. Today, it is quite different in terms of circumstances including much higher inflation are likely to solidify that focus barring much worse outcomes this time around. So the overall conclusion I want to pass on to you is that the 2014 experience is that Russia may only shoot itself in the foot in destroying its own economy. Global market effects could be brief and outweighed by other considerations. At least the Fed may not be blown off course, although it might be a different matter for the ECB. So just some thoughts there on the geopolitical risk at the moment. Now let's move into the data for the week. In the US, Tuesday sees Fed Empire State Index and January PPI. The Empire State Index is expected to print a 10-handle, providing a timely update on the New York manufacturing sector. In terms of the PPI, we're looking for 0.5% on-going supply issues. We'll support producer prices. On Wednesday, we get January retail sales in the US, looking for a 1.8% print. Omnicom concerns have temporarily subdued retail spending. We also get January import price index, looking for a 1.3% print there. Import prices are set to remain elevated for the foreseeable time. We also get January industrial production, 0.4% supply issues in Omnicom. Continued great volatility for that reeds. We get December business inventories, looking for a 2% print. Businesses are pushing through supply issues at a robust pace. And finally, we get the FOMC January meeting. So although a little stale at this stage, focus will be on discussions of the rate path for rates in 2022. Then into Thursday, we get US initial jobless claims set to remain at a very low level. We also get January housing starts, looking for a negative 0.1%, although supported by a robust underlying demand for housing. Federally index, looking for a 20-handle there. That'll offer a gauge of the business-city activity in the region. And we get some FedSpeak. Notably, it's Belad who will be speaking on the economy and policy outlook. And it was him who, his shift in position, really started to see the focus in the elevation in terms of the rate activity that we've seen over the last couple of weeks. On Friday, we ran out of the week with January existing home sales. Looking for a minus 1.3%, lack of inventory, has hindered sales activity. And then we get the January leading index, 0.2%, robust economic momentum set to continue this year. And we ran it out with FedSpeak, Evans and Waller take part in a policy panel along with FedChair Mester. From a technical perspective, the dollar index has continued to hold above the pivotal 95 trendline support. As it does so, we're ultimately looking for an extension through the pivot, 96.19%. And then on to get a test of the 98 handle, also projected monthly range resistance just above. At this stage, we've only really looked at the bearish side. If we took out the 95 on a closing basis, looking for a move down to 93.58, and then on to potentially 92.38. Over in the Eurozone, let's see where we start our data this week. That's Tuesday as well. We get the February ZEW survey of expectations last time, 49.4 expectations rebounded firmly and above average prints. We also get December trade balance, surge in import prices induced first deficit in the trade balance in Europe for nearly 10 years. We also get fourth quarter GDP, looking for a 0.3% print there, second estimate to confirm the slowing of year end activity. And then on Wednesday, we get December industrial production in Europe, 0.2% expected broad based easing of supply pressures yet to show itself in the data. And we ran out the week on Friday in Europe with February consumer confidence, looking for a negative 7.6 handle. COVID-19 concerns have continued to weigh on confidence. From a technical perspective, the Eurodollar held the resistance at the just below 115. Now looking for a pullback to hold the pivot, 112, 70, 112, 80, which will bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side, looking for a move up into the yearly pivot at 116.38. At this stage, a loss of the pivot on a closing basis would open a retest of the prior cycle lows down towards 111. And then through those lows, we would be looking for that 78.6% retracement target at the 110 handle and the descending projected trendline support zone there. In Japan, we have some Q4 GDP data out on Tuesday, looking for a 1.5 positive print there, 1.5% consumption rebounded from the Delta set to really drive growth. We also get December industrial production in Japan, final estimate supply issues remain a material headwind there. And we then have on Thursday, Japan, December machinery orders, looking for negative 2% print there. The emergence of Omicron in December should have slowed or impacted capital investment. And then on Friday, we get January CPI in Japan, looking for a positive 0.6% inflation at pre-pandemic levels and the BOJ will be focusing on wage growth. From a technical perspective, Dolly M traded up into the prior cycle highs and and fansome supply coming into the close on Friday. As long as we hold the pivot now, 1.1540, I'm looking for this to grind higher up into our target zone on 1780. At this stage, only a close back through the pivot would suggest a meaningful double topping play here. And then we look for a move down to test the 1.1330 area as support. Moving to the UK, again, Tuesday is the first day for any meaningful data. We get December IELO in unemployment rates looking for a positive 4.1% print as the recovery continues to edge unemployment lower. Wednesday, January CPI headline inflation remains at near 30 year highs. We ran out the week in the UK on Friday, with January retail sales on the Kram has probably temporarily softened retail activity. From a technical perspective, Sterling is holding in the consolidation zone that we're looking for, just above the pivot and above this ascending trend line here, 1.3470s. As we continue to consolidate, we look for an upside advance to test 1.3835 as the next upside objective. Only a close back through the trend line would warn of a more meaningful decline underway. And then we will be looking for a move that retests the prior cycle lows, 1.3170s. And on to the equality objective at 1.30, just above the 1.30 handle there. And finally, in Australia, again, data starts on Tuesday with the RBA minutes. Give it to receive some color around the plausibility of rate hikes this year. On Wednesday, we get January WESPAC MI leading index, local components still cycling out of the Delta shock there. On Thursday, we get January employment data. New South Wales and Victoria continue to reopen, but the Omnicron during the summer holidays suggests greater than usual uncertainty about this number. The unemployment rate they're looking for is 4.1% with some seeing that as being overly optimistic at this stage. And that rounds out the data in Australia. And from a technical perspective, the Aussie dollar made a test of the descending trend line that we talked about last week at the 72.30s and was rejected from there. If we get a close through the pivot cluster here, 70.70s, then we're looking for a move down to test the monthly projected range score at the 69 handle. Only a close back through the highs of 72.50 would suggest a more meaningful upside test underway. We should see us up into the descending trend line at 74.20s. As always, trade us, plan the trade, trade the plan, the most importantly, manage your risk. Until next week, thanks very much.