 The following is a presentation of TFNN. The morning market kickoff with your host, Tommy O'Brien. Good Thursday morning everybody, I'm Tommy O'Brien, coming to you live from TFNN just after 9 a.m. Eastern time. We've got about 24 minutes to go until the start of trading. We've got markets in positive territory coming off the lows the last night. Lows at 4408, so you're talking about 25 points off of the lows we had at about 9 p.m. Eastern time. If you get the NASDAQ 100, we're up by 60 this morning, we're right at about 15,000, 15,000 on the dot as I say that. Lows overnight, 14,087 were positive in the NASDAQ 100 by about a 30%, Dow positive by about a tenth of a percent, 34,847 we get the Russell positive by about three tenths percent, 1884. Crude, back above $80 yesterday we had a 79 handle, I think we even got, we did. We got a brief $78 handle at about the market lows last night, we popped a bit, we're back above $80 at $80.47 on the price of crude. These are 10 minute bars we're looking at in this chart. Go contract up a couple dollars at 1930 from 1918. How about this channel line, right? That's a 10 minute going back about 10 days. You put this things on a daily and since July 27th, it's been a one-way trip, man. Does the 10 day get us? Let's put it on a 20 day. Yeah, point being, keep that on your radar, folks, because it's a pretty well-defined channel line. I put one there. I'm going to duplicate that line, put this one on the bottom somewhere, right there. Keep that gold channel on your line. Kind of a short-term channel where I'm approaching the top side of that realistically as we're doing it, maybe a little linear regression, might bring it right down to here, right? We might be approaching the upper side. Look at how well-defined that is, man. Pay attention to that as we're approaching the upper bound of that channel line in gold at 1931. We jump over to the dollar index right now, DXY. Pull them back a bit to 103.12, we're as high as 103.60 last night. That, of course, weighing on commodities or influencing, I should say. Not weighing. Give them a little bit of a lift as the dollars pulled back. We've got to talk about yields, man. That's going to be the headline to kick things off. We're talking about four point, the exact right now, the exact, and we are eight ticks off of the lows, okay, 4.292, 4.29 on the dot, 4.29% on the tenure, man. That is remarkable. We are going into the all-time recent highs, all-time recent highs, right? Challenging the October highs from our price point, 108.26, we got to 10905. Who had us challenging 4.3% in the tenure when we were at 117 in price action about, what is that, three and a half months ago, yeah, three and a half months ago, man, 14 weeks ago, we were at 117 and you're down to 109. What is that? A loss of eight? That's like a 7% loss in capital, 7% in equity, mark to market, right? 7% loss in mark to market. If you're in the tenure, you bought it at 117, you want your money back three and a half months later, they say, well, we'll give you 109. You said that was fixed income. It was safe. It said, ah, not so much, man. Rates have gone up since you locked in that 117 price at the beginning of May. So it'd be interesting to see where we go from there. All right. And as we kick it off, yeah, here's the headline, man. Global yields marched to 15-year highs as rate hike worries built. So interesting how this narrative is changing a bit. We just pulled up the gold contract. What has to do with the dollar, of course, we take a look at the dollar, dollar index, that's a weekly basis. We're just going to back things up. You couldn't make the same case on the dollar index to the upside, right? Let's add a drawing here. We're talking about channels potentially. There's your lower boundary. Let's duplicate that line. It's already parallel. We slide it up to the top, something like that maybe, right? Check out that channel, man. And we are approaching the bottom side, but what is that talking about? It's talking about higher dollar, weaker commodities. We jump over to yields in that same degree. And let's see. I'm going to go back even a little further. No, that gets us back 20 days. Let's go back a little further. How long does that go? Look at this one. This one's interesting. You almost got a well-defined channel going back all the way. That's a four-hour chart to when. Yes, it's basically the beginning of May, man. Let's go a little bit shorter term timeframe. Yeah, not quite as well-defined. We're definitely in lower price action. So we have lower price, higher yield. With that, you have dollar strength. We have commodity weakness. And in the same essence, we got market weakness, man. Now, let's back it up to the highs here of $46.34. Yesterday, for some reason, I was like, man, this market just cannot catch a bid. Look how many sell-offs from this top. It starts with the first sell-off, July 27 from the highs, recent highs, $46.34. We make another high overnight, July 31. We literally come into August at about $46.20. And that little, look at, this is midnight. Right? What did I just do? Yeah, that's like midnight. It is. Yeah, it's like midnight. Look at how things roll over literally midnight, August 1. And let's start the channel line right there. All these things related, folks. As in a weaker market, higher yields. So keep these on your radar. We'll have them on the charts now. Maybe not exactly parallel, but somewhat well-defined, and they're all there. So the relationship ships are existing, right? I was looking at these last night. I was looking at them this morning. I said, do you know what? I'm just going to draw all these channel lines when we kick off the program for the first segment. So you can see the correlation going on. This is going back to the pullback that we've had from August. It's quite a month, man. You check out the NASDAQ 100, right? You're talking about well-defined, okay? So we're getting areas here that at least you can start to build a channel. Let's duplicate that line, NASDAQ 100, throw it to the bottom side there, something like that. There's your channel in the NASDAQ 100. Let's take that Fibonacci number off there. Right in the middle of that channel, the NASDAQ 100, $15,000. We've had some steeper pullbacks in some of those tech stocks, man, Apple. There's no channel there. They just drop out of bed from $196,000 to $178,000 over the period of a week around their earnings, and then we're chopping around, but slightly lower prices as this market. We were in a one-way trip, folks, for the first seven months of the year. It was a one-way trip. That's the S&P trading from about, that's March, okay? There's January. So a straight trip from about March 13th, and we're just back to the 236. That channel I just showed you. We're talking about about 110 points, get you back to the 382. That's where you gapped higher. In June, that's where you had a little bit of a base. I think that's where this market might be heading first and foremost. Now in eight days, we get Jackson Hole, Chairman Powell. Where's the tenure going to be by then? What if the tenure is pushing, we're at 4-3, folks, and the tenure is moving like a tenth of a percentage point every single day almost. You're getting such moves. What happens if we come in the next Friday at like 4-4? We're at 4-3. We're at 4.28. We're at 4.3% of the tenure. What if we come into, what if we come in next Friday at 4-5? What if we come in 4-6? First Chairman Powell going to stay in Jackson Hole. If we're coming in with yields pushing highs throughout the entire pandemic, there's your three-year weekly. Yeah, you talk about capital preservation, man. This is the reason why banks are going BK, right? They got a once-in-a-generation inflow of capital. They took that money and put it on long-term securities. On the tenure basis, you're talking about we're at 1.40 in 2020. We were at about 1.35 in 2021. You want to mark those to market. You're at 1.10, and it's only two years later. Look at the third year. You're talking about going from either 1.80 to 1.20, we're going 1.67 to 1.18. Things will change eventually, but right now we're seeing higher yield, folks. Stay tuned. We got a lot to talk about. We'll be right back. If you're looking for potential trading setups in the stock market, then Rocket Equities and Options Report is a newsletter you should try. Tommy O'Brien delivers options and equity trades when the markets present them, using a combination of fundamentals and technicals. Sign up for Rocket Equities and Options Report today with a 30-day money-back guarantee so you have nothing to risk. For all the details and to start your subscription today, visit the front page of TFNN.com. TFNN, educating investors. 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TFNN has launched the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. TFNN has been educating traders for more than 20 years, with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours, the Tiger's Den. Available to all tigers and tygruses for just $1 for the year. There's no cash or added costs when you join our community of traders. Sign up today and become a part of this educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of TFNN.com. Welcome back, folks. We got the S&Ps right now. Positive by 12. We get the NASDAQ 100. Positive by 51. Dow positive by 44. Russell positive by 5. We got positive action all over the indices this morning. We got the 30-year up here. Negative by 15 ticks. You jump over to that 10-year. The 10-year right now, negative by about four ticks. There's your weekly. Okay, let's back it up. Look at this in the context of big picture, right? We have been at a time. This goes back as far as you can see. Now, I'm going to pull the 30-year back that goes back even a little bit further than that. But I mean, folks, look at what would be the median price of the 10-year since it started getting charted on a future basis if you looked at this chart, right? What, 122, 123, 125, something in the middle of there? We're at 109, okay? But this chart is skewed dramatically by the fact that we have had dramatically low interest rates that we may never see again for some time, man. That was not a normal period of time. I mean, I love our man Larry Pesarvento every day at 11 o'clock right here on Tiger TV, folks. And I remember when he would be talking about, and I'm sure you do too, if you were listening to his program, right? Saying, who's given anybody money for negative interest rates when they were all across the globe? Saying, that's not how it works. It's not how it's supposed to happen. I'm surmising his words, but that is not how it's supposed to happen, folks. If you understand economics, okay, you either consume or you save. If you consume something, you get that benefit. If you save, you are supposed to save for a future added benefit, otherwise consume. Because why are you saving if you're getting no benefit and even less benefit from negative interest rates? You get the point. You check it out on the tenure, man. Absolutely remarkable. Now, the headline is the 10-year Treasury yields. I'm talking about the journal over here. So maybe it's just where they settled versus where that price actually went because 10-year Treasury yields are up again after settling, okay, at their highest level since 2008. Yeah, 4.3% is basically where we're sitting at. It's settled at 4.258 Wednesday. Maybe that was a high settlement since 2008 because the price action last October, right? A little bit lower price action in terms of the futures, but nonetheless settlement in terms of the daily settlement, pushing about 4.26% Wednesday. Shorter term rates in contrast falling. So interesting how that goes, right? Is it going to be higher for longer? Is that the reason why the 10-year is shifting up? Is the market beginning to accept higher inflation going forward? Possible. Something's happened in the 10-year. So pay attention to it, man, because it seems like every day it's creeping up and we're talking about levels now that are the highest since 2008. The only thing I will caution you is that we have been in an extraordinary period of time since 2008. That's the one thing to keep in mind here because you could say to yourself, man, this is crazy. Look at this deal I'm getting, right? Look at this deal I'm getting on the 30-year at 118, okay? Now, we talk about the 30-year. Well, guess what, folks? Prior to 2008, you would be a loser in the 30-year for price action if you were buying it at about 120 where it basically just was, right? 118, 122. Everything prior to 2008 in this chart is lower price. Why is that? Because that correlated to higher yield. We have been in an exceptional time of 0% and negative interest rates. Now we are in an exceptional time of inflation. Those two could not be more different. And so that's where I caution you in terms of the yields. I mean, look at this chart on the 30-year. Does that scream strength? Does that scream bounce? You look at it longer term. Yes, we are at a very critical area here, which is the lower price action of last year. You don't hold that area. Where do you go, right? Yeah, you've got some chop around here. You're talking about on the 30-year, easily you can make it to 104. Easy peasy, okay? I know I'm generalizing, I'm jumping around a bit, but it's important to remember that unless you think that interest rates are going back to negative, I don't think that you're allowed to. It's not as easy of a scenario as you imagine because we're talking about a yield of 4.3%, which is not that bad on a longer term perspective. You should be getting paid money on your capital, folks. For a long time, you were getting nothing on your capital, which really doesn't make sense in the longer term picture of how economies function. So we are back to a new normal. And does that mean that we're gonna be pushing inflation that's acceptable at 2.5%? Maybe, we will find out. All right, let's jump around to what else we got going on. Walmart shares out with their numbers following target earlier this week. Walmart shares jumping around were positive. Yeah, we are positive by less than a dollar right now. They're talking about their conference call. Let's see, not sure what they said at 8.20 in the morning. They said something in the market didn't like on that conference call, but nonetheless, we get over to Walmart numbers here. Where are they? So they raised their full year outlook, earnings forecast. Excuse me, as grocery and online growth, you will hire sales. Interesting, the dichotomy between Walmart versus target. E-commerce sales for Walmart jumped 24% year-over-year. Modest improvement of sales of big ticket and discretionary items in the quarter. It now expects full year fiscal consolidated net sales to increase by about 4 to 4.5%. Adjusted earnings per share for the full year ranging from 6.36 to 6.46. The company was prior looking for 3.5% sales increase in earnings of 6.10 to 6.20, so they up and on both sides there. You have the CFO, as I mentioned, modest improvement in the big ticket and discretionary items. Consumers as choiceful or discerning. Quite a way to phrase things. Seasonal moments such as 4th of July and back to school have helped to drive sales. Consumers are being more choiceful in their purchases. That's one way of saying that they might be a little bit more strapped than they had prior. Walmart could be a benefit of there though. As you see people in the higher echelons, they talked about this prior. People in the higher pace segments of society making six figures going to Walmart. Because guess what man, prices are getting crazy. We're up 20 to 25% from a few years ago. That'll get you to go buy your paper goods or whatever you want from Walmart. Even your groceries, right? It is interesting. Target, as I mentioned before, love going to Target because of the user experience, right? The experience they provide inside, they get a great toy section to the employees. I get a better feeling than in Walmart, but you're paying for it, okay? And so I can go to Target for certain things. I can go to Walmart for others. Target, they almost pretend to like have a grocery section, but it's very small compared to most retailers. That's why Target is more geared towards some of that discretionary money versus groceries. It's not even a part. They almost trick you into thinking that they got a grocery section in there. But don't be fooled. They might have paper goods, okay? I'm digressing a bit, but yeah. They kind of trick you, man. You wanna go buy some chicken. You wanna go buy some beef. You wanna go buy some fruit. They have it. They just don't have much of it. All right, in the grocery department, sales of private labels rose 9% year over year. Those brands make up 20% of Walmart's total US sales. Pretty remarkable, right? I mean, what is Walmart doing for groceries overall? 20%, 24% of the grocery market in the whole country, I think. And meanwhile, one out of $5 spent there is on Walmart private label. And that's only gonna keep going on as this economy is tightened and the clamps are on in terms of people's wallets. I've been talking about October 1st, right? October 1st, those student loan payments, they start up again, it's coming, and that is going to matter. Put it lightly. So check out this market. We're right in the middle of this channel line that it's been in. We're trading at 44.31. We've had some negative price action recently and we're gonna be coming back for the open. The other thing we're gonna be talking about, folks, we'll tease into it as we come into this break right now. Jobless claims decline in a sign, as Bloomberg puts it, of a resilient labor market. Applications fell by 11,000. That number comes in at 239,000 and the week ended August 12th. Resilient economy, to put it lightly. Four week average, 234,000. Those numbers out this morning. All right, folks, stay tuned. We're coming back for the market open. We'll be right back. Currencies, commodities, and bond markets are as important as ever right now with how they're driving the volatility in equity markets across the globe, which is why it's a great time to try out Teddy Kegstad's Tiger Forex report. Teddy Kegstad breaks down the forex markets every Monday using his 30 plus years of experience as a trading veteran of futures, forex, stocks, and options. 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You're looking at an S&P up about 15 points right now, trading at 44.34, as I mentioned. We were as low as about 44.10 overnight, so we're about 24 points above those lows. NASDAQ 100, we're up by 60 points, right at about 15,000 and the Dow, floating with about 34,915 right now, up about 100 points. We jump back to yields. Let's jump to the dollar first, and then we'll jump to yields. Dollar index pulling back, 103.13. And then we jump to the 10-year right now. 109.13 is where we are. We were as low as 109.05 overnight. You jump to that 30-year right now, and we're at about 118.30. So going over those yields again, because I was looking at that article again, I was saying, how is that? It's the highs. We're not quite back to that price action. So the way they put it is that the global yields reached that 15-year high since 2008. Okay, the 30-year reached the highest level since 2011, and you had our 10-year within a few points of the highs that we had last year for yield, okay? Now, take a look at global. This is the global yield, okay? This is the global aggregate treasury's total return index value unhedged US dollar Bloomberg index yield. There you go, that's quite a name. Yeah, we are at the highest levels we've seen since 2008. You got down to about a half a percentage point on a global basis, okay? And now we're pushing almost 3.5%. We rose to 3.3 on Wednesday, the highest since August 2008. Sovereign bonds worldwide have handed investors a loss of 1.2% this year, making the asset class the worst performer. Yeah, I'd say so, lower price. Where were we? Here we go. The 10-year yields have jumped by more than 30 basis points this month alone. The biggest monthly increase since February. You have those yields within just a point, a few points of where we were. Yeah, the 10-year yield approached 4.31%. I said, I think we're at about 4.29 right now. That's just a few basis points away from its 2022 peak. The equivalent UK yield jumped to 15-year high. It's German counterpart, approached the highest since 2011, so it's everywhere. So on a global basis, you are pushing highs across the board. All right, jumping around to what else we have going on, New York City. They're not dealing with TikTok no more. If you're in government, it's one of the apps I don't have on my phone, folks. It's one thing, you know, needing to trust Apple as you do. I mean, think about what Apple knows about you. Think about what Google knows about you, seeing every email that you have, but at least those companies aren't run by the Chinese government. Because it's one thing, having those companies, that data's out there. Of course it can be used against you. You can try and, you should try and protect your data at all costs, protect your social security number at all costs. Those are probably gonna be out there everywhere anyway at this point. But many times people ask for it, you don't need to give it. So protect it at all costs, but I don't wanna give anything to the Chinese government. And it's almost to a certain degree. I actually recently was using X, formerly known as Twitter, because that's how you'd say it, right? And I was trying to, I think, download a picture to share it with somebody else that was on one of their posts. And I needed to give Twitter access to my entire photo library. And I actually said, nah, I'm not cool with Elon getting access to all my photos, my children, my family because I don't trust them because it's a private company, right? So you do have to have a certain level of trust with these companies. And if you're conducting every email you do over Gmail, of course you're trusting that company, right? If you have an Apple phone, of course you're trusting that company, right? They run everything in terms of what you are doing, where you are, your texts, your communication, your phone calls, your geolocation, et cetera. But I don't trust the Chinese government, man. So that's why I don't have TikTok on my phone. Yeah, and it is interesting. You know, you guys are talking about your kids, right? I've actually found that when I had kids, I stopped really wanting to post on social media because for that same reason, it's like, you know, there's many people that I'm friends with, even on Facebook and Instagram that I probably haven't seen in 20, 25 years, et cetera, and putting your whole life out there not quite as entertaining when you got small kids to a certain degree. I know some people love it and that's great too, whatever makes you happy, but you are putting that out there for the universe. All right, what else we got going on? Yeah, I mean, the journal's talking about yields too, right? Stock market today, index is open higher, key treasure yield keeps rising is the number there. And we talked about the settlement in terms of those higher prices. Talking about continuing claims real quick on that jobless number, continuing claims, which include those who have received benefits for longer than a week, rose to 1.72 million, that's one week delayed. I want to bring it up just to put this chart on here. There is nothing going on in this market, man. Okay, these numbers almost irrelevant in terms of a pullback in this economy. We've been chopping around for the entire year at about 225,000 jobs. Folks, that's the number in a healthy economy. That's the healthy churn for the number of jobs you got going on. And if anything, you could have made the case that continuing claims were rising in that May to April area. They've actually pulled back dramatically, nothing going on in this chart and continuing claims that should make you nervous in any degree about this market. All right, what else we got? Let's check in on Walmart, on their numbers as we get the market open. Walmart shares, basically unchanged. You're up by 67 pennies right now. You got a positive market. We jump over to other retailers. Target, quite the acceleration to begin the day yesterday. They gave up a lot of those gains today. They're up by 910th percent. You had TJ Maxx charging higher yesterday as well. Today, giving back some of those gains, but yeah, still hanging around $89 right now, right at 89 as we speak. Let's jump around to some of those bank stocks. Amazon, positive with the market by a quarter percent right now. Apple, the king dog, up about a third of a percent. Microsoft, flat at 320 right now. Nvidia, hanging tough, up 310th percent, quite the acceleration on Monday from 405 to 450. We're back a bit, but still in positive territory for today and we jump over to Elon speaking of, down about a percent for Tesla shares at 223. They get some price cuts going on this year, this week, excuse me. And we put this thing on a daily. Now here's what I'll say about that. Let's extend this one to the right. Maybe that's where you're looking for some price action on Tesla shares at about 200. Maybe you're looking for price action at about 217 as you come into the highs of February, the highs in March at about 208. And just, whoops, and just out of curiosity as well. Let's see what type of a pullback that would be talking about from the run this thing had this year alone. We put a Fibonacci on there. There it is, 200 to the 50%, the 618 to about 177. That's probably where Tesla's trading as we got 4430 in these markets. As I mentioned, we're eight days out from Jackson Hole, right? We got about five weeks out from the next Fed meeting. Unless we get a shocker, I would say that they're probably on a pause, but the market seems to be shifting on the fact that guess what, they figured out they're on at least a pause because they're going every other meeting. But there's enough going on in this economy right now that they need to make sure that we get inflation under control. We got CPI still sitting at what? 4.8, 4.6%, something like that. And now we got crude prices rising a bit yet again as we got crude stuck at a price point of about $80 or to 85 recently, higher than we've seen basically since last November, in terms of the influence that's gonna have on the wallets. And at the same time, I keep stressing it, man, six weeks from now, student loan payments kick back in and that is going to have a dramatic impact on consumer discretionary income across the board. We check out yields right now, sitting at about 4.28% on the 10-year, we're negative by four ticks, but we're off the lows trading at 109.15. We jump over to the VIX as we got a positive market this morning. The VIX is comfortable at about a 16 level recently. 15 is a 16 area, so much for the days of 12 to 13 as this market has grown a little bit of angst as we got higher yields, I'm gonna attach it. 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We've got markets hanging out to the gains right now. We're positive by 12 and the S&P is NASDAQ 100, positive by about 30. We jump over to Apple shares. Apple, up about two-tenths percent. We jump over to Disney shares, up about six-tenths percent. Interesting, six-tenths percent. Interesting article over here in Bloomberg, they were talking about the Tiger's Den as well earlier. It's been talked about many times before, but you got a notable analyst, Dan Ives, over at Wedbush, saying Apple should buy ESPN. Will probably cost them over $50 billion, shouldn't be surprising. They just signed some deal with the rights in terms of gambling with ESPN and Penn, but nonetheless, you got ESPN out there. And I wonder if Disney would get rid of them because it's interesting, right? You'd give it to Apple. Apple's got their own streaming platform. What's Disney gonna do with ESPN? And Apple, man, their biggest purchase ever, $3 billion for Beats Music and Beats Electronics in 2014. Disney has signaled it's considering selling or finding strategic partners. They probably wanna retain some of that. And I don't know if Apple would let that happen. They're looking to sell a stake in ESPN to a partner and they can help accelerate the network's transition to streaming. Well, Apple could do that. And the other story here that people have written about is that Apple could just buy Disney outright. That's gonna cost them a pretty penny, man. To say the least, maybe they can do it with some Apple shares. They probably should have done it when the thing was a $3 trillion company. It's slightly under that, I kid to some degree. But remember, folks, Apple has about three, excuse me, 16 billion shares outstanding. Let's pull it up and see where we're at right now. 15.7, I think is the last number. 15.6, it just keeps dropping because they do buybacks, okay? This number used to be 16 billion shares. We're at 15.6, we'll probably be at 15 before you know it. Point being, every dollar that Apple moves is almost a $16 billion move. A $48 billion acquisition would be a $3 move in Apple, which would basically bring it to where we were trading at on Monday. Just for some context of how little that actually means to a company like Apple that's pushing $3 trillion. And as the article states, okay, and listen, articles get written about this all the time, it's just talk, it's just an analyst. He's getting his own notoriety, right? He's a great promoter, Ives. He's looking to be out there. He's looking to say things. He's looking to have an opinion. Doesn't mean it's gonna be right. But it is interesting in the context of how little it means to Apple the money. But it would be quite an acquisition when the biggest acquisition ever is a $3 billion purchase of Beats. And you'd be talking about 50 billion plus for ESPN. And if you really wanna go to Disney, I mean, the time to do it's right now, man, at Disney when you're pushing 86 off of the highs of 200 and change, and Disney is now pushing 160 billion. So what would you have to do? You'd have to come in and buy that company probably for 200 to 250, maybe even 300 billion. Ah, 250, 200, they're not gonna accept 160, man, when you're trading from 203 to 86 bucks. But yes, a number that would be reasonable for a company like Apple. Let's jump to some of the other streamers. We jumped to Netflix shares. They're falling on the open off about 1.5%. Warner Brothers Discovery is flat this morning. We jumped to Paramount shares off about 6.10% and Disney shares were slightly in the positive, but boy, it's been quite adulterous. I mean, did you have, did you, you gotta go back more than three years now to get the COVID lows. COVID lows of 79 bucks. You only saw that for a Friday and a Monday, I think on that week. And we've been shopping around at these levels, folks. Basically since last, what? Last June, last July, we were talking about 14 months of basically testing the COVID lows for Disney shares. We're pushing 86 bucks right now and we're off the highs of 203 to put it lightly. All right, what else we got going on? Let's see what we got pulled up. Yeah, we can talk a little bit of AI. Let's talk a little bit of mortgage rates first. Why not? Because we are pushing some lofty levels. We've been talking a lot about yields. We had Warren Buffett diving into those home builders. All right, let's take a look at some of them as we kick it off. Is it DHI? Yeah, DR Horton pulling back yesterday. Wonder if that's a factor of those yields accelerating, right? There was the news on Monday that Buffett was stepping into these equities. We give back a lot of that on Tuesday's action. You charge higher and then you give it all back on where we were on Thursday. You jump over to Lenar shares. Pretty similar price action. This morning we're up by about 810% for Lenar. It shouldn't be too surprising, but we're approaching levels now. We just got the mortgage numbers yesterday and they're gonna go up again in the number yesterday. I think it was something like 7.15%. That seems outlandish. Just we have been at such a ridiculous low interest rate for so long. It seems like you're getting screwed by paying 7.25% when realistically, it's actually an amazing loan when you think about it to lock in a rate of 7% over a 30 year period to build equity in a home. The problem is we've been used to much lower rates and what you can afford seems like you're just getting so much less than what you were able to when rates were at 3.5%, but that's because that's the truth in terms of where you were and what you could afford for a monthly payment. We could push towards 8%, all right? And what they talk about in here, you got number of analysts. The average contract there it was 7.16% the weekend at August 11th. We're up from there, man. Some buyers with low credit scores and high debt to income ratios, they're getting quotes already in the 8% range and that's talking about the numbers we had as of the end of last week. And what they say in here, folks, let me get the quote, there it is. And this is the chief economist at Moody's. The market seems to be incredibly on edge with regard to rates. When you get to 7% plus, the market goes dark. Affordability is too far out of reach. That's when house prices resume declining. Well, that should help inflation to a certain degree, but yeah, we'll keep our eye on that market and hey, that could help the home builders even more, man. Because if you weren't willing to sell your house at 6%, you're certainly not gonna sell it at 7% when you have to replace that house with a current market rate, right? And many loans you cannot transfer. And I was just talking to my dad about this. You can transfer VA loans and some FHA loans, I believe. And even the VA loans, you're actually able to transfer and you don't have to be a veteran, I believe. You check all that out, folks. But having that conversation with my dad saying, if you have a loan, you have a VA loan, I believe it is a VA loan. Correct me if I'm wrong in the den, but I believe if you have a VA loan, those are assumable loans, right? So let's say you have a $300,000 loan on a property, you're selling it. If you have 25 years left or 28 years left of a 3.5% loan, that is worth a lot more money than if somebody can assume that loan than if you're just selling the property outright. Now you have to find the right buyer, right? If it's a cash buyer versus a mortgage, et cetera, there's a lot that goes into it. But everybody, if you're talking about your home, you can't trade it out right now because you just lose so much value by closing that out because loans aren't assumable. Think about it, if loans were assumable, it would release all that plumbing in the housing market because there'd be no incentive to stay in that home because you could sell that loan for an assumable value, you would get rewarded for that long-term fixed income that you had locked in and that would allow you to take the equity out of that trade basically and put it into your next acquisition because it's assumable. So you would get rewarded for giving up that mortgage. The problem is you do not get rewarded for giving up your mortgage right now. It's like ending a winning trade without getting paid off. So nobody wants to sell their house. Very interesting to see where we go from rates, but we were at seven, one, six last week and we are going up from there with rates on the rise. We're eight days out from Jackson Hole, stay tuned folks, one more segment, markets up by eight, we'll be right back. TFNN has just launched their new trading room, the Tiger's Den, hosted at Discord. 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Don't forget, you can listen to TFNN live on your mobile device 24 hours per day. Go to TFNN.com and hit watch Tiger TV. Welcome back folks, we got the SMPs clinging on to gains barely, but we put this back to a short-term chart and you can see the drop-off on the open. We were pushing 44.36, we're now at 44.22. We backed things up to the overnight action. 44.09 was the low at about 9 p.m. Eastern time last night. Came back to a low of about 44.14 at about 2 a.m. Eastern time last night. So coming up next, folks, we have our man Basil Chapman with the Tiger Technicians Hour. Basil filled in from my dad yesterday and he's got a lot of money. Basil filled in from my dad yesterday and he's got a webinar coming up, folks, in six days, Wednesday. August 23rd, that's this coming Wednesday. This is free for opening call subscribers. Okay, so you can come on over to the front page of TFNN. This webinar, the power of the 9 and 14 moving average. Okay, now I want to say nine day, but it's nine period. Okay, the power of the 9 and 14 period moving average and other indicators in the Chapman Wave methodology. Basil has had some outstanding calls, folks. Talking about Peg in the recent high in the Dow. So he wants to have a webinar to talk about all of this, the methodology that went into it, the moving averages that he follows within his newsletter. He'll be doing a 90 minute webinar. That'll be next Wednesday, August 23rd, 4-5.30. If you can't attend live, it will be archived. Head on over to the front page of TFNN. You can check out what Basil will be talking about. We'll be talking about. And when you sign up, you gain instant access to the newsletter. Okay, because you're signing up for the newsletter. This webinar is free for all subscribers to the newsletter. New subscribers get a 30 day money back guarantee. So get over there. You can subscribe to the newsletter. You can get it for a month for 149, 6 months for 695. That's a savings of 22% or a year for 1195. That's more than 33% off the monthly. If you're thinking about keeping it, folks, I encourage you to check out the sixth month of the year because it still comes with a 30 day money back guarantee. You get Basil's newsletter for the month. You can check out his trades. You get to go to the webinar next week. And he's got a bunch of other archived webinars you can check out as well. And stay tuned because Basil's coming up next, man. As these markets roll over a bit, we get the S&Ps up by just two right now. We got the 10 year. Watch out, folks. We're dropping yet again as we got the 10 year yield right now. We'll end the program. Why not? The 10 year yield, 4.3%. Why not? Basil Chapman's up next. Stay tuned, folks. Have a great Thursday. I'll see you Friday morning. Have a great one. Bye.