 The first ever NASCAR Cup Series race at Nashville Super Speedway coming up this week for the Ally 400, which means a new track, a new set of criteria to look through, a new roster construction. It's a very different feel for NASCAR DFS. And honestly, not totally sure what to expect this weekend in terms of which drivers will be best, which tracks to emphasize, et cetera, et cetera. So we're going to try our hardest. We'll get extra data on Saturday for practice and then Sunday for qualifying. We'll see how things shake out, but by the way, should be a fun weekend. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com here to break down the Ally 400 made DFS perspective, letting you know roster construction, scheduling stuff for this week, and much more to get you said for the Ally 400 over on FanDual Lock is at 3.30 p.m. Eastern on Sunday. That is relevant if you're trying to fill out lineups. So we'll talk more about that in just a bit. But first, a quick reminder to make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast because it's not just NASCAR. We've also got PGA every week with myself, Brandon Cadulla. We have MLB for Friday already posted and then UFC with Austin Swain coming up later today, Friday. So make sure you are subscribed wherever you get your podcasts. And if you like what you hear, leave us a rating and review as well. It is always exciting when a player scores a goal in the Euros. 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In Iowa, 1-800-Bets-off. In Indiana, 1-800-9 with it. For confidential help in Michigan, 1-800-270-7117. In Tennessee, call the red line 1-800-89-9789. Or in West Virginia, visit 1-800-gambler.net. Let's take a look at the track breakdown for this week. Before we talk about Nashville specifically, it's important to break down the schedule for this week because it's a new track, which means there is practice in qualifying and that does throw a wrench into our lineup building process for this week. Practice is at 2pm Eastern on Saturday. Qualifying is at 11am Eastern on Sunday. The starting order should be set by noon, which means you will need to be around sometime between noon and 3.30 when lock-ins. It's definitely annoying. I personally hate being restricted like this, but it is going to lead to some sub-optimal lineups in the player pool, which is a good thing for us. We're playing against less sharp competition than usual. It comes down to what your goal is. If you are playing for fun, just trying to get a sweat in there, totally fine. Do what you want. If you're trying to be plus EV and profit, you need to be around in that window on Sunday to react to where drivers are starting. Again, it's between noon and 3.30pm Eastern on Sunday. If your goal is to profit and you can't be there, I would probably sit this week out, honestly, because it's tough to fill out lineups without key data. Play that how you want to, based on your availability and based on your goal. Again, if you're just trying to have fun, do your thing. Totally fine. I understand NASCAR is fun, but if you're trying to profit, make sure you are around in that time if you want to play. Part of the reason that starting order matters so much is that lap sled will be big here, because it's a 300-lap race, which means there are 30 points available for lap sled on Fandall, so we need a minimum of two lap leaders in our lineup. Those drivers are likely to start up front, but I also want a third lap leader in most of my lineups, almost all of them. Since it started last year, there have been five races between 300 and 320 laps in length. I'm excluding the second Dover race last year because the starting order was inverted there, kind of a different monster there, but in four of those five other races, there were three drivers with salaries of $10,000 or higher in the perfect lineup. Those are the guys most likely to really lapse, so the high salaries here, getting three of them in is huge for your upside in DFS. There is wiggle room here, like $10,000 is not a hard and fast number. Alex Bowman is nine-five. I think he could lead some laps or win this race on Sunday, so just in general, it is wise to get three potential lap leaders who could contend for a win in each lineup. That has been successful in the past, and I'd expect the same thing this week in Nashville. That does mean you'll need to find some good lower salary plays. I'm not too worried about that personally because it's a 750 horsepower package for this week. That means there will be off throttle time in this race. Anytime you have that, the pool of teams that can realistically compete expands. It's not going to be as good as Phoenix or Richmond because it is faster. I think it's 15% faster in Nashville than it is in Phoenix, but there will be off throttle time. There will be some attrition because it is the 750 package, new track, concrete, all that stuff. We should be able to find good plays lower in the salary pool if we look hard enough. We'll go through some in the tier by tier breakdown later on. Identify those drivers who could lead laps. I'm going to lead hard on practice times and performance in the 750 horsepower package because Nashville is a blend of a bunch of different tracks that use the 750 package. It is the length of Darlington, the surface of Bristol and Dover, the banking of Phoenix and Richmond. All those tracks use the 750 horsepower package. If we look at overall performance in this package, any track with a length of less than a mile and a half, we should be on the right path. I think that what I want to do is just blend them together, spit it out, see who's done the best, and see who could run well on Sunday after considering those things. We'll talk a lot about that in the tier by tier breakdown. Again, we will get practice info on Saturday too because it's not a super long track. I would expect we'll get five lap averages for every relevant driver in this field. We might get 10 lap averages for a bunch too. That's really helpful and we should lean on it. We should value that data because, again, if you could get spin rate data from a pregame warm-up from Max Scherzer, it'd be great to have. We want to value that data. Just don't go too hard with it because the current form section of my model actually outperformed the practice section in Charlotte, which is similar, is one practice session. You don't get a lot of data there. Same thing happened for the Bristol dirt race. Practice matters. Just don't throw out the current form stuff while looking at it. Again, look at practice data but consider it as being a segment of the information we have for this week. The final thing I'm at least looking at is how drivers have performed on concrete because it's partly anecdotal honestly, but Carl Edwards was dominant at Nashville in the Accident series or I guess the Bush series. I don't know what it was at the time. I think it was Bush series. Either way, he was dominant in the lower series back in the day and his nickname was Concrete Carl. It's possible that concrete performance matters. It makes sense because concrete is a situation where tires wear differently and the optimal groove for the track will change throughout the race. Having that skillset, that knowledge can translate from Dover and Bristol over to Nashville as well. I'm going to look at it. I would say though that it seems like the tire wearer thing will not be as much of an issue or much of a component this week. I was listening to the positive regression podcast with David Smith now in Kavana and they were talking about a tire test that occurred back in March I think and David said there was not a lot of tire fall off. I'm not going to assume going in that this is a track with heavy tire fall off despite the fact it is a concrete track. I will at least look at the concrete numbers, but again, if we get practice data on Saturday that does not correlate at all to concrete performance, I will just toss it out and kind of rebuild things. I have my wind simulations built out, but I will happily change them drastically based on what I see in practice on Saturday depending what tire fall off looks like and depending if there is an overlap between who has fast and practice on Saturday and who is generally good on concrete, but overall practice and performance in the 750 package will matter a lot to me this week. The keys for me this weekend are getting a minimum of at least two lap leaders in every single line up. I'm going to have a third in all of most all of them even if it does mean punting at times for my fourth or fifth slots. I will decide speed by looking at practice times and performance in the 750 horsepower package and then I'll make sure I'm around on Sunday to fill out lineups after the starting order has been set. To me, I think that's just the way you got to play things if you want to profit. But again, play things I know not everyone is like just that someone wants this wet. That's fine. Totally okay. Do your thing. Love it. I respect it a lot for me though. I think that I need to be around in that window to make sure I can fill out the best lineups possible. Let's go through our tier by tier breakdown now for Nashville based on the salaries at FanDuel.com. And again, these will change based on practice on Saturday and qualifying on Sunday. But here's what I'm viewing with them right now. The elite tier is Kyle Larson at $14,000 through Denny Hamlin at $12,500. And it feels weird given how dominant he has been recently. But Kyle Larson is not going to be my top right guy in this tier. He does leave my win simulations. He is at 13.5%. Shurex is at 12.7%. Denny Hamlin is at 9.0%. So technically Larson is number one. But I'm actually okay putting him a little bit lower and being higher on Shurex and Hamlin. That's because they have been awesome in the 750 horsepower package this year. Hamlin has the best aggregate average running position in this package. He is at 3.7. Shurex is at 5.0. Larson was amazing at Dover. But outside of that, he has been downgraded a bit in the 750 package relative to the 550. So for now, I'm going to rank Shurex 1 and Hamlin 2. There is a pretty major caveat with that, though. And the thing is, the reason that I'm qualifying this is that Nashville is not a playoff track. And it seems like Joe Gibbs Racing has placed a much heavier emphasis on the playoff tracks than others. Because Shurex has won three times in the 750 package so far this year. Those wins came in Phoenix, Martinsville, and Darlington. All three of those tracks host a playoff race. He struggled in Dover, though that may have been due to some damage he got early in that race. So I think the overall strength for Shurex will be enough for him to be the top guy for me. But it is worth noting that they haven't been as good in the non- playoff tracks. And I at least want to be aware of that. So check out practice times on Saturday. Practice time is not as predictive for older drivers as younger drivers. So if Shurex is not super fast, don't cross him off. But if Larson is crazy fast, bump him up. For now, I'm ranking them Shurex 1, Hamlin 2, Larson 3, Chase Elliott 4. The second tier on Fandall is Kyle Busch at $12,000 through Kevin Harvick at $10,000. And we talked about needing mid-range drivers in the track breakdown. And this range is great. Pretty much from top to bottom. And I think that what I might do this week is pick one between Larson, Hamlin, Shurex, Chase, and then get two guys in the second tier. So I like a lot of guys here. My favorite guy in this range as a shocker to nobody who is a regular listener is Joey Logano. I mentioned before that Shurex and Hamlin lead the sport in aggregate average running position in the 750 package. Logano ranks third there behind those two guys. He won Bristol. He was on the podium in both Phoenix and Richmond. He ranks fourth and last lead in this package behind Shurex and Hamlin and Larson. So Logano is a guy who we need to move aggressively based on the package because you can pretty easily just avoid him on the 550 package and target him whatever they're in the 750 package, including on road courses. So to me, Logano is the top guy in this tier, $11,000, not high enough with how good he has been in this package. I believe he also won at Nashville in the Xfinity series back in the day. Number two is Ryan Blaney, which might be dumb because William Byron is pretty great. Byron has three top fives in these six races in this package, whereas Blaney has none. But Blaney has been pushing for top fives. He had 157 laps led in Martinsville, led 35 in Phoenix. He had a top five average running position in both those races. He's also $1,000 lower salaried than Byron. So to me, it's Blaney over Byron, but by a very slim margin. I'd also mentioned that Kevin Harvick has been getting better of late in this package. His past three average running positions in this package are seventh, eighth, and fifth. He's generally great on concrete. So I'm not fully back in on Harvick, but they're giving me a salary discount and I'm okay keeping an eye on him for sure. To me, this year is ranked Lagana one, Blaney two, Byron three, Harvick four, Kyle Busch five, and Brad Keselowski six. Keselowski seems more adept in the 550 package this year, and Busch hasn't shown the best upside in this package yet. I think 17 total laps led in these six races. So he benefits from practice. Keep that in mind, but I would be okay being a bit lower on him, especially because he is the highest salary guy in this range. The mid-range is Alex Bowman at $9,500 through Austin Dillon at $8,000, and I love Bowman here. I think that he is basically part of the tier above this as a potential lap leader. He won in Richmond and Dover. Dover is a concrete track. Richmond is flat, and this is kind of like a blend of those two traits. It sounds like tire wear might not be a huge thing this week. Again, that's worth noting because Bowman is someone who feasts on high wear tracks, but I still like him a lot. I will be including him in my third stud rotation as a potential lap leader and a potential winner for this race. Second for me in this tier is Christopher Bell at $9,000. He has seemed more competitive in the 750 package than the 550 this year. He had top 10 finishes in Phoenix, Martin's zone Richmond, finished fourth in Richmond, which means he can run well on the low banking tracks, which is good for Nashville this week. I don't think he has the upside of Bowman. To me, this tier is Bowman, then a decent gap-backed Christopher Bell. Then I'll go Tyler Reddick, Austin Dillon, and Kurt Busch to round out the rankings of this tier again prior to practice. The value tier is Matt Di Benedetto at $7,500 through Daniel Suarez at $6,000, and there are some fun options here. I am always in on Di Benedetto, it seems, and this week is no different. He ranks 15th in aggregate average running position in this package, which is the best of the drivers in this tier. It's also had a Kurt Busch in the tier above him. He finished ninth in Richmond. Di Benedetto didn't run as well in Dover, which is a bit concerning, but I'll keep an eye on him here at $7,500. Chris Busch from someone, I want to watch in practice, not totally sure how to feel about him yet. He is $7,000. He's been great on the heavy wear tracks this year similar to Bowman, but this, again, might not be that. Busch also struggled in Phoenix and Richmond with the lower banking. Busch is a good driver, and he could figure some things out. It's especially true of the practice session in the pocket. My assumption right now is that I will be in on Busch, but I do want to see how things look on Saturday to see if I want to fully commit to him. If he qualifies further back, I'll be in for sure, because he's a good driver, and I do value that for sure. Ross Chastain doesn't grade out well in terms of his overall average running position in this package, but he's been getting better. His past three marks there are 16th, 15th, and 14th. I am interested in Chastain at $6,800. This tier to me is ranked even Adetta one, Busch or two, Chastain three. Eric Elmerola four, he's been better at the flat track, so maybe he gets bumped up here. Daniel Suarez is five. He's a benefactor of practice, and Ricky Stenhouse Jr. is six. I'd be open to any of those guys if they show well in practice. It's just a big tier. I think they're all interesting. Stenhouse actually does have good aggregate average running positions in this package. He was 12th in Phoenix and 11th in Bristol in terms of where he was running. I think he's interesting, but I'm okay in ranking him behind those guys, at least for right now. The Pontyn tier is Cole Custer at $5,800 on down, and I really, really want to give a long look to Bubba Wallace this week. He ranks 18th in aggregate average running position in the 750 package, which is ahead of eight guys who have a higher salary than him. It's a race that seems to set up well for him based on the situations in which he has popped so far this year. Here are the race types for his top five best average running positions this year at non-dragging tracks. It was a 750 package, a race with practice, a 750 package on concrete, 750 package, and 750 package. The team didn't even have a shop until December, so we should have expected some groin pains early in the season for Wallace, and that's why having practice time is especially helpful for them to allow them to work on their car, actually get that on-track time, on-track feedback when it's not during a race. The same thing is true for Daniel Suarez. I would keep a very close eye on Wallace this week in practice. I think that he is under-salaried at $5,000, just based on what the data says, based on some anecdotes as well. I think that Bubba Wallace will be a key way to jam in. You might be able to get Bowman as your fourth highest ranked driver from a salary perspective at $9,500, and I think that would be tremendous for this week. The other guys who rank highest in aggregate average running position in this package are Eric Jones in 21st, Ryan Newman in 22nd, Chase Briscoe in 24th, and Ryan Prez in 25th. Cole Custer I would need good times in practice to buy into, but he did show up pretty well in Dover. He finished 10th there. To me, this year's ranked Bubba first, then likely Jones, Briscoe, Custer, Newman, and Prez. Kind of okay with being high on Jones because he's a good driver. Briscoe and Custer need to see it a bit more. Newman, not a big upside guy, and then Prez has a consideration because he's got some skills as a driver as well. Let's finish up your picks to win. The win picks last week finished first and second, so a lot to live up to for this week. I'm going to deviate a bit from what my win simulations say because they have Larson at the top. I don't want to do that. I want to go Denny Hamlin as my number one driver to win for this week. $12,500, $8 to 1. I don't see any value in his embedding him to win a Fandall Sportsbook, but I think that he'll win this week. We'll go Denny Hamlin as my win pick above $10,000. The guy below out of obligation is Alex Bowman. He's the one guy who really has the ability to pop in this track type and in this package, so I will go Hamlin at the top, Bowman under $10,000, and we'll see how things play out this weekend. That is all the time that we have here for today. You're on the Heat Check Fantasy podcast, but as mentioned, more stuff coming up here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Austin Swain is going to break down this week's UFC card. I believe it's in Las Vegas. That'll be up later today on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Also have an MLB podcast already posted, so search for the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast feed. Wherever you get your podcast, leave a rating or review and check out all the good stuff to get you set for this weekend. If you have questions for me, I am on Twitter at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the Fandall Podcast Network at Fandall Podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you as you fill out your lineups for this weekend. We'll talk to you once again next week. This has been the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire.