 Good afternoon and welcome and thank you for giving up your lunch hour Welcome to participants. Welcome to panelists. My name is Jill Helker I'm the director of international cooperation and partnerships and my job is really to fill in the time before we get to the substance We are against the clock so I will shorten my opening remarks and perhaps cut to the chase the Point is that we want to illustrate Two key initiatives through which IOM is promoting a state-of-the-art understanding of contemporary migration dynamics to enable more informed policy responses and international cooperation on migration management We have been collaborating with key partners with deep knowledge of migration issues and vast technical expertise Over a number of years through partnerships, which is one of the keystones of the director-general's leadership We're able to provide innovative tools and ideas to understand and address some of the most complex migration issues that we all face as the first presentation will highlight the World Economic Forum IOM migration transformation map offers a unique way of presenting the drivers underpinning migration Through an interactive and highly visual depiction of migration We know from a lot of the work that we do that Visuals make people understand things better than words And so this is a very important tool I think for helping people really see and therefore understand migration So we're pleased that the World Economic Forum invited IOM to co-curate the migration map as part of its broader Transformation map initiative our ongoing collaboration on the migration map will continue to enable Users better to understand the complexities of migration with greater ease the second Presentation set of presentations is on the syndicate The panel will showcase the world the work of the migration research leaders syndicate Which IOM convened to provide the global compact process with the latest thinking on migration The academic and applied researchers comprising the syndicate Accepted our invitation to look closely at some of the particularly difficult areas in migration management such as regular Migration pathways or supporting people under the pressure to migrate the publication We're launching today compiles contributions that not only unpack such issues But also provide innovative ideas and practical recommendations to solve them It's a pleasure to reinvigorate long-standing relationships with some of the academic partners who've been valuably assisting the international community in Identifying opportunities Challenges and ways forward in migration management It's also a great pleasure to continue expanding such collaboration to wider research and analysis circles from all over the world Initiatives such as the syndicate can benefit the international debate and policy making on migration by adding perspectives that draw on understanding empirical evidence and rigorous analysis and focus on wider perspectives including those of migrants themselves So I would now like to hand over to Jim and Mari to give their presentation on the transformation map over to you Thank you Jill and good afternoon everyone and thank you to IOM For inviting me to give you a brief presentation of the forums Dynamic knowledge platform that we call transformation maps before Mari turned specifically to the migration map and The relationships that it has to other areas Let me give you a brief introduction of the platform so that you understand The concept behind it and what we're trying to achieve Through it in case any of you are not familiar with the forum we are we see ourselves as a Helping to improve the state of the world by providing a global independent impartial Future-oriented platform for global leaders to come together and shape the future And we believe that evidence-based decision-making is really central to that effort And that's one of the reasons why over the past couple of years. We have developed this dynamic knowledge platform the transformation maps We believe it's a powerful way to push that approach forward So with that in mind, let me start just by showing you a short video Which should give you an idea about the maps and the concept behind them How are migration climate change and education connected? How will the fourth industrial revolution social innovation and aging populations affect the future role of government? In an increasingly complex world These connections can be hard to see yet a systemic understanding of global issues is essential to today's leaders as a Global platform for multi-stakeholder cooperation The world economic forum has developed a framework to analyze the interconnections among diverse topics illustrating how developments in one area can impact others By drawing on the collective intelligence of the forum's networks transformation maps explain the factors driving change across industries economies and global issues For example by disrupting every aspect of technology the fourth industrial revolution will have a profound impact on Governance and affect the scale and character of conflict both will test the role of government Which will also have to take into account the challenges posed by aging populations in advanced economies Transformation maps cover more than 120 topics Each topic is defined by its key issues the most strategic trends shaping that topic and Because we're not looking at topics in isolation, but its systems in transformation We highlight how issues depicted in other maps exert influence The content is continuously updated by leading experts in the forum's extensive network It is supplemented by a machine-curated feed of the latest research and analysis from leading universities and research Institutions and it is enhanced using technologies from fields such as machine learning artificial intelligence and advanced network analytics In an increasingly complex and interconnected world Transformation maps provide a unique contextual briefing to support more informed decision-making So that gives you an idea about the maps and the concept behind them We currently have 128 maps and about 60% of those have been Co-curated with leading universities Think tanks and international organizations like the International Organization of Migration To give you a flavor of the sorts of people that we work with Some of the other examples of maps that would be Broadly connected to the issue of migration would include the European Union that we did with the European Council on Foreign Relations The future of government that we did with the National University of Singapore Humanitarian action which we did with UN Ochre Human rights which we did with the University of Oxford Justice and legal infrastructure that we did with the University of Southern California And Latin America and a whole host of Latin American country maps that we did with the Inter-American Development Bank So let me now try to demonstrate the the tool live for you so you can get a sense of how it works As you as you operate it I'm going to steer clear of migration for the demonstration because Mari's gonna delve into that in a moment but for the purposes of the demonstration imagine you were a student or government official Or a strategy officer in the private sector and he wanted up-to-date information about the dynamics around overfishing Well, we have a map that we curated with the University of California Santa Barbara who are leaders in this field who have Amongst other key issues identified overfishing as one of the key trends around this topic and given us Some of the context for that They've included some of the latest research around it and some of the implications that flow from it That Key issue on overfishing in turn is connected to a number of other transformation maps in our system including The map on the illicit economy, which we curated with the Globe initiative against transnational and organized crime Headquartered here in Geneva and in that map among other things you can learn how Criminal networks are profiting from natural resources including fish in a way that threatens global biodiversity Equally You could approach overfishing from the perspective of governance and you could consult The map on global governance that we curated with University of Oxford and understand some of the drivers of change around that particular topic Again, you could take overfishing and look at it through the prism of Innovation and here you could consult a map that we curated with Nesta, which is an innovation foundation based in the UK So you can see that there are lots of different ways that you can approach specific topics different ways to appreciate the interconnections and interdependencies that exist between all of these different subjects and There are in fact Thousands of different pathways that you could take between these subjects to understand the push and pull factors that exist between them so we hope that the transformation maps which are designed to change and morph and adapt according to developments in the real world help To demystify some of the accelerating complexity that we're all faced with these days in understanding these relationships For each of the 128 areas as mentioned in the video We have dynamic feeds of the latest research An analysis and we draw that at the moment from around 250 different sources around the world and that's something we're always looking to increase both in terms of number and quality But also geographical representation so that we're including different perspectives in terms of research and analysis In the feeds that we provide the users The maps are obviously available in English But also the majority of content is also available in Arabic Chinese Japanese and Spanish at this point And we actually launched a public version of the transformation maps that contains everything I've just shown you a couple of weeks ago in Dubai So it's now available free of charge to anyone who would like to access it. We hope as a public good From from this moment on We are particularly proud of our a relationship with IOM in the co-curation of this migration transformation map and on behalf of the forum, I'd really like to thank Mari for being a steadfast pioneer in driving this forward and she was in fact really One of the first international organizations to grasp this and we've got others on board now So we've been very pleased with that opportunity to collaborate I'll stop there hand over to Mari and she can take a closer look at the migration map. Thank you Thank you very much Jim and I am a fan. I'm an addict of the map I get lost in it as you could tell it's quite it can be quite engaging But I'm coming at it from a practitioner. I'm a civil servant and I've been working in government since 1993 and in academia So I see it's Applicability across a whole wide range of different areas which we can talk about briefly But firstly I did want to Thank Jim and Stefan who's with us here today for the opportunity to be Collaborating on this. It's a really innovative and very useful tool We thought that for the next few minutes I would take you through the map and also talk a little bit about how we can use it in our work because it's not just Glitzy glam and the video is fantastic and it looks really good But it's actually got a lot of utility and this is the thing that I was drawn to And how we can use it in our work is really important. So the first thing to really notice about this map Compared to say some of the other maps. It's a pretty messy, isn't it? But but we know that and we've been hearing that in the last couple of days and at previous sessions on migration migration It can be pretty messy This is a global view. This is not intended to Reflect regional dynamics around migration. It's not reflecting National level dynamics. It is taking a very high level view, but in that way it can be very useful for briefing That's for sure. So let me just quickly briefly take you through if I can read it and I will do my best I'm sorry The key issues that we have put together in the center ring that you can see there. So conflict and insecurity I'll just very briefly read them out Then we've got the securitization and the breakdown of trust and the links to other maps there Migration data and analytics. We've heard that a lot over the last sort of day and a half And we'll continue to hear that over the next few days. It's a burning issue for all of us working on migration There's global governance and of course It's been a major theme in the context of the the global compact for migration and the discussions that we are having this week And next in Porto Vieta Demographic trends is a very significant issue when it comes to migration and the first kind of forays into migration theory were by geographers and demographers Many years ago now integration We heard the panel earlier today on integration and how important that is Continuing to be and perhaps even becoming more important Maintaining migrants rights again. We've heard that a lot during the open debate in the interventions It's a critical issue including for member states, but also for practitioners working on migration Inequality and uneven development Again, we've heard a lot about that in the last few days talent shortages I will admit is a little bit out there compared to the big drivers and the big factors But part of that is the transition from having this migration map Behind a password protected site for the World Economic Forum with their focus on industry leaders government leaders Senior academics and so forth. So talent shortages was a natural fit then it might transition into something slightly broader Into the future not to say that it's not important, but it's perhaps not as important for a broader audience the outer ring I can't really read it. I'm sorry. I'm going to try and do my best the outer ring are all the other maps that this map links to Cities and urbanization, which we just heard about in the previous panel You can click onto Have a look at that one, which is Georgetown University and see the enormous number of other maps and other issues that relate To it and how it connects to Migration one of the things to note about the outer ring is the typology, which is expanding Set by the World Economic Forum Limits us in terms of the geographic Regions that we can link into whether that's countries or whether that's economic Units and and processes or whether that is actually geographic regions So that is an area that will change over time as they expand expand the series It's not just interactive and it's not just an online tool and this is where I think some of the utility lies for briefing Ministers who are coming into new portfolios for senior officials. There is this very useful Briefing mechanism you click on this button download it and it turns into a PDF Which can be saved it's generated in real-time it can be printed can be emailed around and it provides The succinct Synthesis sort of analysis of the key drivers and factors for whichever migration whichever map you're looking at including the migration map So this is the part where for those people who are not so tech savvy You can actually provide something to them that they can read take notes on and so forth This is really where I think it's very useful for the work that we do within member states For the work that we do in international organizations Because briefing senior officials who may come in or ministers who may not have a deep understanding of migration They can derive enormous benefit in terms of looking at a succinct and synthesized briefing Migration touches all of our lives and everybody feels connected to it. Everybody's got a story about migration But we risk merging into anecdote rather than analysis Quite often so something like this briefing pack allows for a very useful synthesis discussion It's the start of a discussion. It's not the end of a discussion, but it's a good intro and it's a good foray into it Just by way of background. I Have worked for a long time in government for the Australian Government and the immigration ministry and in 2013 and 2014 over a two-year period We had five immigration ministers and I really wish I'd had this to start the conversation on Migration international migration the linkages the complexities and that it's not just a national level phenomenon because many politicians and many ministers Tend to look at it through a domestic political lens quite understandably and this helps break that down The other thing too and I've worked in embassies overseas and Now that we're sitting in Geneva the other way that I think it can be very very useful. I'll go back to them up here is When we work in missions overseas and especially multi-lateral missions and busy UN missions You have to be a lot across a lot of issues whether you're covering climate change You're dealing with human rights. You're dealing with a whole range of responses including UN reform and so forth This is actually quite useful for bringing and distilling that down into the different global transformations that we're all sort of grappling with So you might be dealing with Overfishing as Jim said you've got a map there on on oceans and the key issues around Around overfishing you might be dealing with climate change. There's one on climate change. There's cities and urbanization. There's 128 So it's a very very useful tool for us in our work as we work in a multi-lateral environment and have to be across a Whole range of different issues and introduce others to those issues in real time So I would encourage you to have a play It's not just Interesting and you can get lost in it in terms of moving around the actual matrix It does have the utility in terms of the briefing and I would welcome you and your feedback Particularly on the migration map as we seek to expand and refine it over time. Thank you very much So let me pick up from there Good afternoon Everybody and thank you from me as well for taking time out of your lunch break I'm Michelle Klein Solomon the director of the global compact for IOM Sitting in the office of the director general and it's really a pleasure to have all of you here with us and to have Had the chance to hear from our colleagues at the World Economic Forum and Mari with this a truly innovative development My part of the panel is to introduce you to the work of the migration research leader syndicate Which is one of the initiatives we launched in connection with our efforts particularly during the consultations phase of the development of the global compact to really empower and get the voice of many different stakeholders and here we felt that You know for the reasons that Jill said Having a global compact for migration needs to be underpinned by the latest evidence solid research understanding and really tried to be based on fact rather than myth and It has been a tremendous pleasure working with Mari and her team in as in particular to bring together 36 leading researchers in the migration field and I'm particularly happy to have three of our stars here on the panel with us this afternoon And I'm going to introduce them in just a moment and then turn to each of them But let me say just a few words about the research leaders syndicate We launched this in in March reached out to researchers throughout the world and the key being to Bring people from various disciplines law geography economics demography international relations sociology and political science and from all different parts of the world so that we would have a truly representative balanced and very diverse set of perspectives brought through the syndicate and I have to say we were very successful with that and I'm quite proud to congratulations Mari and Inez in particular So we have perspectives from researchers from countries of origin transit destination From every region of the world and from all the major disciplines that are relevant to migration governance The first thing that we also asked in addition to the 36 syndicate members we decided to bring in sort of I guess we call them policy advisors to provide a reality check so people from More within the system senior my migration policy makers Practitioners those who work in think tanks to double check the ideas and do a bit of a reality check on what what is being put forward So we wanted to stimulate innovation and creativity and at the same time make sure that what was being generated Really bore a relationship to reality and would be useful in the policy process So the very first thing we did with with all of these people's we asked each to identify their top three Reads for policy makers meaning if they were to recommend to policy meter makers only three things that they could read in Preparing for the global compact. What would they be and each of them have provided us their top three reads Some of them are come from their own work Some of them are the work of others some are blogs some are academic articles some are you know the whole host of Different things and those are actually all available now on the dedicated part of the IOM website for the global compact and Specifically for the migration research leadership can They are also available in this Document which I hope many of I see is at the end of the table there and you can pick up Which is also available online if you don't want to take hard copies, but we also Decided to commission a series of 26 concise Technical papers from several of the syndicate members and to bring them together In a workshop that took place here in Geneva at the end of September where they each produced very short Policy relevant documents focused on what we were already seeing through the global compact discussions as key policy Conundrums for for governance and for others so we listened very carefully at the thematic consultations We reviewed the chairman summaries of each and listen to what we were hearing We're coming up as some of the really difficult issues for the global compact and also based on the discussions that we have overall in IOM and it was on those that we commissioned specific pieces and then had the really wonderful opportunity to have two days together at the end of September for each to present each author to present his or her contribution and to have a live peer review questions comments and Went back to the authors the results of that are those short papers in this document Addressing some of the key policy conundrums here, but more importantly than hearing from me I think it'll be a great opportunity for you to hear from three as I said of our stars from the research leader Syndicate who each wrote papers on different aspects and I think have very important things to say and to offer to our Discourse we asked them to be innovative. We asked them to be creative But we also asked them to be grounded in reality and in what Is going forward here, but to challenge assumptions and and I think These three have done so particularly well, and I'm very happy to Present them in just a moment Some of the contributions just to give you a flavor for the kinds of issues that we asked the research leader syndicate to address Things like conflicting issues of governance governance in one area of migration for example on security of border management Versus facilitation and and labor market demands and economic demands really raise Challenging issues for governments and how to reconcile the different aspects or layers of governance Same about how to create regular league legal migration pathways without creating a Stimulus to more irregular migration. I mean, how do you get the balance right there in in creating adequate pathways? How do you combat trafficking and smuggling and do it in a way that protects the rights of individuals? But really gets at the criminal organization. So a whole host of things around return around integration reintegration some of the really pressing issues and one that I found particularly interesting was about migration narratives and and and Perceptions of migration that one is not being presented this afternoon, but I'd really encourage you to take a look at it It's a fascinating piece and then we also brought in the private sector for a look at what's the private sector's interest in migration and migration governance and in all of this and as Was said that there's clearly links to be made here The overall objective not surprisingly is to look at how to use these papers as a way for governments to think about putting in place policies that actually Create more safe orderly and regular migration Or reduce obstacles and barriers to that and at the same time don't inadvertently create more unsafe disorderly and Irregular migration which I think a lot of the policies that we see in place today Are doing so with that introduction. Let me introduce our panelists today and first We'll go down this way directly to my left to your right and start with Jorgen Carling I'll introduce each of you very briefly first and then and then turn to you Jorgen is a research professor professor of migration and transnationalism studies at the at the Peace Research Institute in Oslo Some of you may be aware of some work that he put out very very challenging about definitions are about refugees and migrants and and those questions and look forward to hearing from Jorgen in just a moment to his left is Lynn Gary Mbaay who's a research affiliate of the Institute of Labor Economics in Bonn, Germany and also affiliated with the African Development Bank and has worked quite a bit in Senegal as well and Delighted to have you back with us Lynn Gary and finally to her left is Binod Kadriya Good to see you again Binod. He's a professor of economics and education at Jorgen Nehru University in New Delhi And he's currently serving as the visiting chair of the Indian Council for Cultural Relations Contemporary Indian Studies at Rutgers the State University of New Jersey and some of you may recognize him because he was the thematic expert for the second thematic consultation on was it the second or second second. Yes, thank you on drivers and Was widely Photographed and videotaped at the UN. So thanks Binod for for being part of this as well Let me turn now to Jorgen for some explanation of your Presentation. Thank you. Thank you very much Good science starts by asking good questions and In migration research, let me see if we can get this Yes, in migration research some of the key questions that have informed our work has been What are the causes of migration and why do people migrate and these seem to be straightforward and sensible questions, but they actually carry a risk of leading us down a blind alley Because migration cannot really be reduced to a list of Causes or a set of reasons. So instead I ask how does migration arise and this is a question that allows for seeing migration as the outcome of a longer process with several steps and Also opens up to appreciating different types of outcomes beyond the dichotomy of either staying or going We all lead our lives under certain conditions and with certain ideas about prospects for the future Some people are poor, but see that life is slowly getting better Others live in communities plagued by violence and fear that the situation is only getting worse and Some people are happy with their lives at the moment, but see that their livelihoods are disappearing as a consequence of economic or environmental change so in short, it's the combination of current conditions and prospects for the future That determine whether or not people feel a need to take action and change the course of their lives But an important part of this picture, especially in the context of development is people's broader life aspirations because a way of life that could have seemed normal or Perfectly fine a generation ago might be dismissed by young people today as unacceptable And these changes could happen more quickly too for instance when poor people are increasingly Surrounded by wealth in their neighborhood or in the media or via links with relatives who live elsewhere It's natural that their life aspirations rise and when people feel the need to take action and Change the course of their lives one possible outcome is that they develop migration aspirations That means seeing migration as a promising pathway to a better Safer or more prosperous future for themselves and their families But this is just one possible outcome Because efforts to create a better future can take many forms So for instance millions of people invest in education as a pathway to safe employment But others are recruited by insurgents or extremists Who provide short-term income and a promise of changing the social order in the long term So the point is that people's desire for change can be channeled in very different directions with very different consequences for the development process and Whether or not migration aspirations come up as a target for people's Efforts to create change in their lives depends partly on what we call migration infrastructure And that's the totality of the different social networks regulations Institutions actors and so on that shape migration and Because this infrastructure varies so much the possibility of migration is much more evident to people in some places than in other places and these Migration aspirations may or may not lead to actual migration and Again the migrate sorry again the migration infrastructure is decisive for that step So are there for instance Provisions for regular migration are their smugglers who provide opportunities for an authorized migration Is there a network of relatives overseas who can provide information and financial assistance for instance? We know that for every international migrant in the world There are about three other persons who would have wanted to migrate but who don't have the means to do so So what happens to them? Many pursue migration and fail and of course the ultimate form of failure is is death thousands of migrants die in the attempt every year and Many more end up being apprehended and returned empty-handed Others get stranded in places where they don't want to be often under terrible circumstances All these failed migration attempts come at a great loss to individuals families communities and societies The other widespread outcome is what we call involuntary immobility Wanting to leave but being unable to do so and this can actually also be a costly outcome Because actual migration is a good thing for everyone often But when people spend years of their life Hoping to leave and never succeeding then everybody loses And that's especially the case if the prospective migrants don't invest in for instance Education or live loads or social capital that could have underpinned local futures So what are the implications of all this? The framework that I've shown you is a starting point for thinking about the processes at work in specific contexts And about the possibilities for developing sound policies But let me erase four more general points First the general picture that I've painted applies to both refugees and other migrants Of course the specific conditions and the specific prospects of the future are different But there are very important overlaps for instance in the migration infrastructure and in the problems of failed migration and involuntary mobility So the point is that we should be deliberate about where how and when we make the distinction between refugees and other migrants And the answers to those questions are not I think everywhere always and before any substantive discussions begin Second the gap between migration migration aspirations and migration opportunities is a big challenge that we need to address It's not easy to expand migration opportunities in today's climate It's also not easy to lower people's migration aspirations But the gap between the two is very costly third We saw that the forces underlying the inspiration to migrate can also be challenged in very different directions And with disparate consequences for development So for instance if migration opportunities are cut off What do people then do do they invest in education instead or do they riot those kinds of questions are really important finally The drivers of migration are not actually necessarily about poverty or insecurity today But rather about a lack of faith in local futures. I would be very happy to see more migration than we see today But in a world where migration opportunities will remain limited We really depend on people believing in and investing in a future in their own societies as well So I hope that I've given you some food for thought Thanks a lot for listening and thank you to the IOM for providing such a wonderful opportunity for dialogue between research and policy Thank you Thank you, Jorgen, we're the ones who benefited from your from your engagement and provocation and insight Thank you very very thoughtful Let me turn immediately to Lynn Gary and because I do want to leave plenty of time for questions and comments from from the audience Lynn Gary you have the floor Thank you very much Michelle and thank you to IMM for the invitation and for the opportunity I'm going to talk about ways to support communities and the migration pressure And I'm going to particularly focus on the role of opportunities information to potential migrants and resilience to shocks so Okay, so if we talk about having migration a sort of migration which is safe orderly and regular we need to understand what drives migration at the first place and Why it is important to support these sedentary communities? So according to Gallup poll survey between 2013 and 2016 14% of what population was willing to migrate permanently to another country and For a Sub-Saharan Africa Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest rate 31% But then the fact of it me this means that most of the people are not willing to migrate Permanently to another country. All right So 86% are willing to stay in their origin country and for Sub-Saharan Africa. It's 69% so Supporting people who are willing to stay in their origin countries may be a complex issue because there is not a single migration driver you have different type of causes and and you again mentioned it earlier and Also migration pressure can be similar if we compare region who are for example politically stable and Region who are politically unstable if I refer to the same survey they show that in the same period of time There were 22% of people from Middle East who are willing to migrate permanently and this was I mean This share was 21% in European Union so this is a complex issue and Of course, and I'm going to talk about this a little bit later The best way to support sedentary community is not necessarily to prevent them from migrating because what we want is safe migration and So it's important to provide these people with options and choices. So they don't just have to take up on risky attempt to migrate so there is a Conventional wisdom that poverty reduction would reduce migration But according to the evidence that we have it will not necessarily be the case for poor countries The the evidence that we have shows that in the first stage of development actually poverty reduction would increase Migration and once these poor countries reach the status of upper middle-income countries or rich countries Then migration will start decreasing. Why because people they just have they are less Constrained financially so they release their Liquidity constraint and they can afford migration costs and they also have more aspirations more expectations And then once they are comfortable enough So they reach the level of upper middle-income Countries or high income countries then migration will start decreasing so there is this nonlinearity between poverty reduction and migration issues and then it means that we need to look at other causes or the Issues that may drive the the migration pressure than than poverty reduction So of course, I'm not saying that we should not reduce poverty But what I'm saying is that we have to reduce poverty no matter its effect on migration So the first thing I want to look at is the expectations migrants expectations So I made a survey in Senegal comparing potential legal and illegal migrants and it appeared that Actually high expectations are correlated with high willingness To migrate illegally. That's the first thing. So there is a positive correlation between expectation and illegal migration and The second thing is that this expectation most of the time are very They are biased and I give you a very simple example the average Expected income for this potential illegal migrants was 1700 euros and If I compare that figure to the average income in Spain, for example at that time because Spain was the favorite Destination country. So for a migrant outside European Union, it was less than 500 euros So these expectations are very high and bias and kind of far from the reality but then what what drives this expectation how these expectations are forms and That's the Where the migrants relatives networks are at play so most of these expectations are Based on what these potential migrants think about the earnings or the living conditions of their relative who have successfully migrated That's the first thing and so I just want to remind you the count the context So here we are talking about migrants living in a country which are which is politically stable So there is no civil conflict and then you have 77% of these people that I interviewed they are willing to take to accept risking their life and then half of them Once they say okay, I am willing to to take a risk I am willing to to accept a risk of dying and half of them are willing to accept a risk of death Which is equal or higher to 25% which is huge So what does this tell us it tells us that first of all they are aware of the risk that they are taking and Second there is a large utility gap between remaining in their origin country and and migrating and What I'm saying is that these migrants networks? They provide good information they will provide information on the way to find a migration on job Opportunities for example the way to cross borders and so on but at the same time they may They may not talk about their living conditions Just remain silent or maybe just by their behavior when they get back home They can make people think that they have very good living conditions that you know The salary is extremely high that they are very comfortable which can be true But which can also be not true right and these these are things that shapes this type of expectations So we we need to look at also the role of Networks and relatives in the economy of their origin countries at a macro level migrants They they can really have an a true economic power through their remittances So if I take the extreme case of Tajikistan where migrants remittances represent more than 40% of the GDP That's that's huge in countries like Liberia. It's 26% in Senegal. It's almost 11% of GDP At a micro level you will have in rural and urban areas Household with good living condition good status social status Often have migrants in their household that can provide them with with you know access to education health and so on So yeah, so this is the point. I mean I mean in this case if you have in your community like Migrants who are the one who let's say have good living condition or are successful according to your definition of being successful Then it it can just seem that migration is for you the only way of succeeding actually or Having a social existence in your community. Oh Okay, too fast. Yeah, and the last point is is really related to the role of adverse shock So we have also one of this made that okay climate change will drive migration or natural disaster would necessarily increase Migration and we know now that this is a very complex issue. It's not that straightforward So for natural disasters or environmental shocks to drive migration. There are certain conditions. So first of all people I mean people will migrate if they all all other options all other survivor strategy have failed So they they don't have any any more options The second if you have these intense and very short-term sudden shocks such as flood or storm for example that leave no space then you would have to move even if you don't move too far because you can't just afford the cost of migration and third and it's related to the second point people need to be able to afford the migration cost and and not have any Liquidity constraint that will allow allow them to migrate in in case of adverse shocks So just way to move forward. I mean again the message here is really not to prevent migration It's just make migration one option among other and provide to people a set of choices So the first thing it's extremely important above all for young people to have opportunities in their home countries and This means supporting the labor market Environment in most of the studies we we cannot and the figures that we have you can see that the Employment rate for example is much lower than an employment rate So people maybe they may they can be at work But then the work that they have is not good enough They don't have good jobs that would provide them with decent living conditions That are safe that are sustainable. That's the first thing So it's important to create incentives and and favorable conditions So the second is that we if we talk about you know innovation we could use ICT and I give the example of mobile phones But not only because these are kind of very cheap now Accessible to people and it helps I mean evidence shows that it helps connecting not only people but also services and markets You have the example of in Pesa which really help Communities to be financially included and indirectly also have some social inclusion But just to go beyond maybe the role of mobile phones It would be also Interesting to use technology to demonstrate success in areas such as agriculture and just Reshape the narratives give alternative narratives of success and show showcase Role model who succeeded at home like as a reference point if your only reference point and that's why I talk about relative concern is Of success is a migrant then you know you tend to think that there is only one way actually and Then this would also help reshaping expectations yeah, I Talked about the quality of the the information that is that that is delivered to potential migrants Extremely important that we design effective tools to improve the quality of information So it can sound a bit contradictory I talked about mobile phone and use of technology in a globalized world To think that people are misleaded about what to expect from their migration Experience but it's it's not if we look at the filter to through which they receive the information and most of the time They will tend to trust more the relatives the people they know that they are they they grow up with than the official source of information for example and Finally, it's it's very important I mean I don't need I think to convince anyone to build a resilience to shock not only after the shock But also before the shocks with really strengthening the Social protection mechanism in developing countries because this is really a big issue But also diversifying the economy most of these economies that migrants come from in Africa These are agrarian societies So we really need to work on the structural transformation because that's where the good the good jobs come from right? Thank you. I stop there Thank you very much Lingiri for that very very interesting analysis and I'm struck in particular by the links between the two presentations and really looking at Migration is a matter of choice and people having an opportunity to migrate in a safe and legal way But not being compelled to do so and that that was a strong message that underpinned both of your presentations Let me turn now to be nod for our final presentation this afternoon Can I have that thing? Yeah Thank you, Michelle Well Speaking at the end has its own advantages and disadvantages. I will turn it try to turn it to my advantage I think this particular session is Innovative in the sense that it begins with the name innovation Innovation and ideas on international cooperation. I think it is very contextual after what are the President honorable president of the General Assembly the Secretary general special representative and the director general of IOM Mentioned yesterday that there are gaps. There are we cannot be Complacent about and we have to really get going So in that context the what you mentioned as a background of these attempts by the syndicate to come out with narratives blogs and of course conundrums When we come to conundrums, I think that there are three kinds of conundrums I tend to put them as micro level at the individual level Messer level that is the community level and the macro which is the national level My colleagues here you have already heard them and I think Georgian has addressed the conundrum at the micro level individual level mainly in the context of what he says failed migration or or in voluntary immobility and When it comes to lingerie's presentation, I think it is about Voluntary immobility of Communities, which is at the mezzo level. So my task is to Complete the circle by addressing the macro level, which is at the national level so let me begin by Posing a question before you At the national level, what is common to these phenomenon? These are well-known Incidents or developments in the recent times Brexit European refugee crisis Scotland referendum US travel ban Catalonia referendum Mexico wall Australian boat people Bangladesh is in India Myanmar Rohingya expulsion Of course, they are all connected with Migration but to my mind What is common? in the context of this session is There all Inequitable products of unilateralism in international migration you unilateral in the sense that The countries which have taken these decisions have hardly consulted the counterpart You know stakeholders, so Why did this happen? Why didn't the idea of equitable adversely analysis? Didn't work. Why did why did it not work? And this is an idea equitable adversely analysis that I have been vouching for almost a decade in the sense that countries Destination and origin countries step into each other's shoes and that's how You know my paper is called in each other's shoes making migration policies equitable across borders It took me almost a decade to realize that this is not working. And so I was thinking why Was it an utopia? perhaps not Was then my assumption of nations engaging in serious Multilateralism too strong to be realistic and I think that was particularly the reason because it is a conundrum and That's what Michelle mentioned that we are Thinking of conundrum. This is a new concept new term that IOM has taken an initiative to bring to the focus And I was looking at what does it mean? It means Multilateralism is what I'm addressing. So it means a modern-day maze We come across many kinds of maze. So there's nothing unusual about that It's a logical postulate, which is a positive thing But yet an intricate and difficult problem that evades easy solution. So my concern is Multilateralism is a conundrum it doesn't have easy and you know Comfortable solutions as an evidence from the past I am tempted to Address or bring to notice what is called the GC IM global commission on international migration yesterday Director General swing had mentioned about coffee unanswered contribution One of the contributions that he did not mention was GC IM. He mentioned Gfmd and others but GC IM global commission on international migration was set up in 2002 for a limited period of three years and one of the important recommendations of that report in 2005 was not to make distinction between highly skilled and low skilled migrant workers So that was accepted But within six years as you can see this report is of 2011 from the UN You look at the four sets of bars They are all countries developed more developed countries less developed countries and least developed countries And these are percentage figures as you can see that there has been a massive rise in the selectivity of Countries of groups of countries not only developed countries destination countries But also the least developed countries because they were all Destination countries there was not much of a role to play in this by the origin countries And that's why I call it it was unilaterally adopted selective policies favoring high-skill immigrants now From past to the future if we look at this this selectivity to my mind is now further deepening From labor market to the education market for accumulation of what is called stem human capital stem stands for Scientists technologies engineers and mathematicians and there is what is called a global war for talent I'm tempted to share this diagram with you particularly because Mary had like this one wanted me to share this so I'm bringing this if you look at the first two Circles you find that you know most of the professional workers are coming directly into the labor market from abroad But only a small proportion of students overseas students enter into the labor market in the destination country That was pre 1991 but if you look at 1991 to 2001 phase then you see an overlap H1B visa and You know both in the labor market and in the education market and you see that education market is expanding and phase 3 OPT extension and so on so the overlap is more or less half and half And then this is a some kind of a projection of 2016 to 30 which is sustainable development goal period as well as the compact period projected and that's when it is my my kind of a you know hunch that Education overseas education would be main driving force of high-skill migration because more 60 to 80 percent of the You know tertiary level students continue to stay in the countries where they have their education and that might go up So this is some kind of a prophecy now Coming back to the issue of unilateralism The problem that I look at in terms of destination countries Taking decisions in isolation Are three-fold and they are based on Internal contradictions and consistencies within the countries because countries now we find are not this you know Exclusively divided as origin countries and destination countries. They are both. They're also transit countries Same country is an origin country a destination country and the transit country and that's where we find that their policies their Decisions are often contradictory to each other when they are you know Sitting in one kind of decision say as immigration country than as compared as a as an immigration country And what are what are the implications if you look at the three bars that three arrows? So to say our migration turbulence in mobility trends if we look at the trends long-term trends We find that there are ups and downs and you know massive ups and downs. This is one of the reasons Secondly, we find Micro macro divide on stability in mobility decisions see individuals and families take long-term migration decisions Whereas countries take short-term migration decisions and that I think is contradictory and Family decisions individual decisions in terms of career choice education choice in terms of through a labor market signals are actually non-reversible They are one-way street whereas countries retract their positions from opening the labor market to closing the doors and Finally, what is important is something to introspect by the government themselves is that they are policy makers the legislators as well as the bureaucrats who Actually implement the policies. They do not go back home happy as happy people. They are FGF means feel-good factor That FGF is actually very very low I could see that yesterday in the crowd here. Some people were quite sounding quite this unhappy and disappointed when the President and then did you were saying we need structural change? Finally, I'll let me so let me just come back to my come to my recommendations now maps are very interesting I like maps. You so that's how this session began with I also like diagrams and I showed you some diagrams But diagrams take a long time Acronyms are short. They don't take much time and they also create You know around curiosity and that's why we remember the acronyms if you go to Singapore everything is in acronym so my recommendations are first recommendation that You see we talk about multilateralism, but we practice unilateralism So why not put the entire on us on you you you need? utility, sorry Unitarianism by the dev destination countries in global north as well as the global south GN and GS so that I think I'm drawing this this kind of a lesson from actually the difference between millennium development goals and the sustainable development goals One major difference is that millennium development goal the entire on us was only on developing countries Whereas sustainable development goals the country the the on us is shared between developed and developing countries And this is where I think we should we should be you know be more realistic so for this I recommend two strategies one I call IDC and For TCD and South-South cooperation now. What is IDC for TCD? See we talk about diaspora for development for homeland development, but this I think has been our obsession Why can't we go beyond homeland development? I think we should also have what is called inter diaspora cooperation if there are Chinese and there are Indians they can also shake hands and you know go to an Ebola effected country in In in in the least developed part of the world that would be third country Development TCD is for third country development not the homeland development Similarly, we can do my my second strategy is about North-South cooperation That's where I think the global War for talent needs to be addressed and that's where the stem perhaps can be Recognized as a global as part of the global commons. There are only five or six global commons so far but perhaps human capital should be added as a global common and that's where the North-South cooperation could be for Temporary return rather than temporary migration because if dual citizenship is given then people Can come back without fear of the not or being denied the reentry permissions and why I say this because see There used to be a program called talk 10 Sometime back and that was for sharing the people back with the country of origin But what I am trying to derive is say UN peacekeeping force. We are in the and we are in the premises of the UN Why can't we have a UN health keeping force? For example, we have we are short of doctors and nurses and so on We can share them. They can they go home every year One vacation they can go to a third country and you know Maybe stay three months without interference of the family and friends and deliver Service well, these are innovative ideas. They may sound utopian, but perhaps we need to work on them I Also would like to say that there are three preconditions that we need to address and these are neglected issues These are all related to visa issues now I find that in international migration discourse we tend to skirt, you know, we In the name of sovereignty, we do not address visa issues and that I think we need to address and I'm going to conclude very soon One is I call it dementia in the consular practices You go to ask for a visa you have to give same document same papers again and again and again and again We talk of you know, memories computer memories of you know Gigabytes and so on but consulates have no memory. They suffer from dementia So and it is environmental unfriendly because the paper means we are cutting our trees Second is you know, we don't know when the visa policy is going to change One year after one year after two days after five years three weeks But decisions family decisions individual decisions get affected by that So I I propose that there should be a best before date on the visa policy change so that I can plan Short of a crisis. It will not be changed by the country. That is also perhaps a utopia today and thirdly Of course, this is very important. I think it has been emphasized from yesterday and today also statistics data Now there is great deal of confusion about migration data Understanding, you know the simplest confusion that I find amongst our decision makers and bureaucracies is The difference between stock data and flow data, you know, I tend to hear the stock is growing, you know, this is alarming that Stock will grow but if the flow grows then I should be alerted I think that data literacy is very important and that's why I say save migration statistics from becoming lies and damn lies Short of this migration will continue to be driven by conundrums of multilateral pretensions I call them multilateral pretensions of 3s. These are sovereignty Security and social cohesion. I think we have addressed these three issues long enough But I think we actually have not put our finger into it We are just beating around the bush. Thank you very much So thank you being out for not only being innovative but being very funny and stimulating entertaining Thank you very much. Wonderful things think but let me open the floor for questions comments to any of our panelists and Since we've encouraged you to leave your placards behind when you take the floor Could you please introduce yourself since you're not sitting next to something? Is that somebody in the very back who would like to speak? Yes, please. You have the floor. Please introduce yourself From Zayna Mohanna from Amal Association International. Thank you so much for very interesting Talks, I'd like just to stress with the doctor by Intervention related to poverty reduction that it doesn't effectively reduce migration. I'd like to know more because we did our observation for the migration cycles and from Southeast Asia and Africa to Lebanon specifically to migrant domestic workers and effectively the points of the Government as much as what we see from challenges that are faced by migrant domestic workers Is that effectively if they are provided job opportunities where their culture is preserved differently? They would be happier staying at home so I'd like just to hear more about from where this assumption of poverty reduction does increase Migrations coming from are there any empirical data? Is it applying to middle and high skilled migrants or Lower skilled also and this this is based on any geographical Component. Thank you so much Thank you Zayna. Let me see if there are other questions or comments in the interests of time and then we can turn to the panelists collectively Would anybody else like to? pose a question make a comment Challenge something that's been said Offer a different perspective Yes, I see also in the very back row, but on the other side if you could introduce yourself, please Hello, my name is Marina Martinica represent World YMCA and the question is about the map as we find it's a very very important and Useful tool and we would like to share it within the YMCA is the national locals all around the world And our question was how often is the map updated and based on what sources it is updated? Thank you Thank you great very specific questions And I'll come back to you in a moment for the answers to those would anybody else like to take the floor Questions or comments or challenge to what any of the speakers have said Since I don't see any right now. Maybe perhaps we could Turn to Jim first about that last question in the specifics of the migration transformation map Thank you So in answer to your question as to how often they are updated The answer is constantly we work with co-curators Externally like Marie And also teams in house to make sure that the the key trends that they represent across the 128 different areas and the interconnections between them Reflect what is actually happening in the world At a very minimum we ask the people we work with to Revisit the content they provided us Every three months or so But of course there are developments in the world That would require immediate reflection in the maps whether it's a Piece agreement in Colombia or a Brexit vote or something of that nature. We would want that to be included very quickly Indeed we are constantly looking at ways to try to defy try to find ways of Updating things that don't rise to the level of a key trend so something for instance a Synthesis of some interesting analysis that's come out that we could perhaps take from some of the research and analysis featured in our feed That's something we're playing with at the moment So that our users have a sense Not only of the key trends, but the thinking around those trends as it develops And so we want to constantly test ourselves to see whether we can provide a better service that way and just Just to add very quickly for those who are interested in accessing the maps We just put up on the screen the the shortened address that you can you can access them through Again open to all the public. Thanks Just to add in terms of the migration maps specifically We look at key data key statistics and and when it is released such as displacement statistics from UNHCR IDMC data and new reports that come out. So we've got that all sort of scheduled There's a deser revision on international migrant stock coming out Next year I understand so we'll be updating the data there also in regards to the global compact It's a critical issue particularly in regards to global governance of migration So we did look at it before it was launched publicly in Dubai and had a sweep through to see if there was anything that needed Updating we decided not to but we'll be doing one in a couple of weeks after we launch World Migration Report Tomorrow so I held it off for that and to because then we've got a lot of data a lot of information that is pulled together That will be quite useful for working its way through into the migration transformation Map, but it's an ongoing process and as Jim said we do Revise it we revise it for key events such as the public launch and and any summit that we've might be doing a meaner summit or something But we also do it just very regularly and tied into new release newly released data Thank you both Jim and Mari and that's great to hear I wish most data and Analysis were updated that regularly. It's not generally the case. I know that be not has to leave us So I know Lynn Gary you were posed a particular question But I want to offer be not any last thoughts before he has to leave and then turn to Lynn Gary and then offer you Jorg and any final thoughts as well I think these are challenging times for us, but at the same time It is an opportunity If we lose this opportunity I think that would be you know Unfortunate that would be like missing the bus And I don't want to miss my plane. Thank you Thank you very much. Thanks for being with us and staying to the bitter end when he has to rush to the airport safe travels Lynn Gary Thank you for the question So about the poverty reduction issue. So this has been up. There are two studies particularly one qualitative one Contitative I'm going to talk about the quantitative one by Michael Clements from the Center of for global development and basically So what he's showing is that the relationship is not linear Which means that it's not like you increase poverty and migration would decrease It doesn't work like that and he takes the sample of poor countries. These are Low-income countries. So very poor countries and for these Countries in the first stage actually when you decrease poverty indeed migration increase and Then there is a threshold which is estimated at six thousand between six thousand and eight thousand US dollars and Once these countries per habitant reach this level of income then Development will start reducing migration. So the relationship is not just a linear one at some point indeed poverty would reduce migration but not in the first stage of the development process for poor countries and It makes sense if you think that migration is a costly project people need to be I mean liquidity constraint prevent most of the people from migrating and you're going to mention it earlier in his presentation Even if you are aspiring to migrate you want to migrate you need to be able to afford it And then once you are comfortable enough in your home countries, then you don't have to migrate anymore because All your aspiration can be fulfilled without migrating Yeah, and I also because you mentioned opportunities. I also want to make difference between poverty and job opportunities These are two different things. That's why also in my recommendation I was talking about creating opportunities, right? And what do I mean by job opportunities? As I said if you look at the figures an employment rate are kind of They are much How do you say okay? And the employment rate are much higher than unemployment rate. So most of the people actually they are at work Right, but the issue is that they are in vulnerable condition. They do not have what we call the good jobs that provide them with good living condition Jobs that are sustainable, you know that are not in the informal sectors and so on So I would make the difference between job opportunities and poverty. I think these are two different things and Finally About the skilled issue who is affected I made myself a study on which is another topic on climate change natural disasters and migration by making the difference between Low skilled people middle skilled people and high skilled people. So who migrate when natural disasters? Mainly closed by climate change happen and what I found out is that indeed there is a positive relationship However, if you dig a little bit you would see that only the high skilled people would migrate So low skilled people and middle skilled people do not migrate again And it just kind of also strengthen the hypothesis that people because skills is Correlated with income right so high skilled people in poor countries They are probably though the one who are also the wealthier one and it corroborate the issue of liquidity constraint Right when a shock happen you may want to migrate but you you will have to to be able to afford the shock and What we see is that when you have shocks like storms and floods that doesn't leave really space You have to go people they tend to go not not so far because they just can't afford the migration cost to Move in a in a in another country next up there. Thank you Excellent answer then Gary and let me put in a plug on behalf of Mari for tomorrow's release of the world migration report a teaser here page 156 actually has a graph of Referring to the study that Lingari just mentioned by Michael Clemens from the Center for Global Development It's called the mobility transition looking at precisely what Lingari just said So plug for tomorrow's release of the world migration report. Stay tuned for page 156 and Let me turn over to Jorgen for the final word. Thank you very much I'm very glad that this point about poverty reduction came up because it's it is such a central part of the bigger issue around migration and development and policy interventions and Of course it raises the question of so what then do we do about development aid? Where should it be directed and I think it's a bit of a concern at the moment to see that there is a pressure to take Development aid out of the countries where migration is not the big concern and Shift it to countries that we are worried about because they have people who want to come to the donor countries so from European perspective there is a strong incentive to shift aid say from Central and southern Africa towards West Africa, which is a much bigger migration concern for Europe But we know that development aid is very very difficult converting money into into sustained Social and economic development is is a huge challenge So I think the main lesson to be learned is that we should spend development funding where it really works and by taking it to The areas where migration issues are the greatest we might risk a sort of double failure in the sense that it's not really alleviating the migration pressures, but it's leading to a Lower return in terms of development outcomes for every dollar spent on development But having said that of course, we should also work in countries with strong immigration pressures to create opportunities and to create Faith in in local futures as I mentioned so it the risk is this sort of simple connection between thinking that Putting money into alleviate poverty will Reduce migration pressures probably they want and probably that money might be better spent in other ways. Thank you Thank you very much Jorgen And to all of you because I think you've done exactly what we had hoped to achieve in launching the migration research leader Syndicate was precisely to look at some of the myths look at some of the conundrums and really debunk some of the Assumptions around these issues so that policy can make making can be better informed as in Gary said It's a good idea to reduce poverty period whether that actually reduces the pressure for migration is a different question, but Government should not have false expectations on that So thanks to both of you from the research leader syndicate and we look forward to continuing with you And thanks so much on this side of the podium to Jim Jill Mari the ladies in red For what is really truly an exciting Collaboration and something that we are very committed to as IOM and thanks to all of you for staying with us for this period And glad we'll give you at least five minutes break before the next session. Thank you