 Great. Welcome to the last set news. My name is Rob and a lot of stuff to go over today So what brought you here was of course the thumbnail on the title which was AK FUD of Bitcoin What do I said? And I'm also going to talk about micro DCA and that's a new strategy that I'm going to try out And see how it actually works. This is going to be for all so I'll tell you exactly how it goes in a little bit We're going to talk about specifically Guggenheim's chief investment officer. We talked about Bitcoin at AK Which is a far cry from his original crazy Bitcoin prediction of 600,000 by the end of year 2021 So take it with a grain of salt. I'll also rent talk about DCA and alts Macro concerns and take a look at some staking data Then we'll get into how Bitcoin got rejected today and talk about the micro DCA And then the very last part will go do a little Q&A, which is only for the live stream So if you're here for the live stream, welcome make sure stop by some of you just caught me So thanks for coming in for the live stream. I do appreciate it as for sure So we'll do is we'll do a quick market recap. Just know timestamps are below They don't come in immediately after we stop the live stream because we have to create them So give it about 30 minutes or so But we time stands for you because time is valuable Q&A at the end also for the live stream We only do the Q&A with the live stream and then we cut it and we do an upload a the Q&A to a separate video So let's jump in to what I'm actually talking about here, which is of course the market itself and We all know it because we all look at our portfolio all the time. Let's just be honest And we got rejected again. We're we're above 30k people were expecting some big rally. I suppose Sure But every time it goes up people are treating crypto market as their own personal piggy bank and taking profits That's okay because that's the whole point, right? You make you are an investor You make your profits you take those gains and some people say no You should diamond hands forever and that's a personal decision and I am not here to tell you what to do Obviously, I'm not a financial analyst or a financial advisor I'm just telling you the things that I see and things that I do so we've got we're down 2% for Bitcoin bit there I'm not too bad holding them up 2,000 Binance coins up 3% that's great three and a half percent up for polka dot any big losers today 4.2 for tron great now I'd laugh at that because I used to have tron is I just don't hold it anymore So for all you tron holders fantastic good for you guys and gals for holding on to that They're in classic up 8% great and so on down the down the road. So there's some pretty good You know gains we had look at Ave 11% so again the market's not that great It's just a little bit harder to get those gains in this type of market So that's what we have specifically for our market today was a kind of a strange day for Let's take a look S&P 500 Actually pretty rocky but ends on a high note Which is kind of odd because we always talk about correlation and bitcoins down 2% But the real question for me then is now there we go nasdaq composite. Let's see if it's up today Now so same thing actually the nest egg for all Bitcoin and as that look like he's doing the same stuff So they rally in the beginning and they're looking pretty good And it just drops out the face of the earth and that's where we have as far as like the traditional market So these to me personally are correlated Let me think about that in the comment section. I see correlation. You know, it's not correlated artwork. So just so you know Christie's that major auction center. They just had a a billion dollar sales week of fine art Why is that specific? It's because super rich people don't care what's going on in the crypto market They'll buy goofy stuff like an Andy Warhol Marilyn Monroe for millions and millions of dollars So just keep that in mind and that's why I talk about this little company called masterworks I personally have a Banksy and a basket not the whole thing you are you buy into personalized shares of fine art And they are registered with the SEC. So it's napping up and it's an uncorrelated asset Market so just so you know link in the description looks just like this So that's what is going on specifically in the market now. I just want to bring this up real quick and talk about Evaluation versus trend line. This is Into the crypto versus website. Love it. I always talk about it link in the description not an affiliate link So just so you know But there's a link in the description for masterworks that is an affiliate link So if you can't stand it that I have affiliate links, that's okay Just go right to masterworks.io. But if you'd like to use it helps to show now for into the crypto verse That's not an affiliate link. I just like using it all the time and this is what we got And I like to see these What this is is the valuation of the crypto market verse what is actually Would be the Bitcoin price or how high above it as far as the fair value and right now if you look back We've had a pretty hefty amount of time above what will be considered fair value for crypto and this of course is Is Is data that is compiled by the website, but it looks pretty interesting and we can see that 2013 which was that nice big bull run. I mean parabolic We were seeing Bitcoin go from like 10 12 bucks to over to over a hundred or a thousand or something like that Then it kind of crashed back down and it always went in cycles We'll talk about in a second but 2014 you can see how it just fell below that market value And then of course the great bull run of 2017 It was way above what would be considered fair value almost 800 percent And then of course we get down here to 2018 in November And we were right where we're supposed to be and now of course in 2021 when we hit 67,716 somewhere on there sixty seven thousand dollars for Bitcoin and the entire market cap Fair value was just a paltry 240% so a lot better than here and a heck of a lot better than over here but now we of course are below the fair market value of crypto per se and There's a bunch of different reasons and one of those reasons you're gonna see these types of things is Stuff like this. This is an article that I pulled and I wanted to show it to you because you're gonna see a lot more of this stuff You're gonna see a lot of people and some may Some rightfully so some might just say well, it's like often and it's an it's an accumulation type of thing and these people are Spreading food Some people actually believe this but I'm not too sure about Menard So this was an article today. Bitcoin's price could fall to eight thousand dollars seventy percent who said that this guy and He's calling for a seventy percent drop to Bitcoin and this is his reasoning He says when you break below the thirty thousand dollars consistently Eight thousand dollars is the ultimate bottom So I think we have a lot more room to the downside especially with the Fed being restrictive now I'm not a big TA person so TA people in the audience helped me But I think there's levels of support around 25 maybe 22 I know the 200-week moving average is somewhere around there I would assume that is it but what this gentleman here Scott Menard is saying is that it's not gonna happen and We're gonna fall down to eight thousand dollars the CIO chief investment officer also the most crypto is junk But that Bitcoin Ethereum will survive and he says most these currencies. They're not currencies. They're just total trash essentially what he says So here's the thing. You're gonna see a lot of that and that's okay, but remember That's what's great about the internet because you can look up all these great pieces sources of information this was on October 18th not too long ago 2021 and Scott Menard chief investment officer Guggenheim said he's no longer invested in Bitcoin after he predicted earlier this year that the crypto Could hit six hundred thousand then of course he went on and said it's gonna be 12,000 and now of course he's saying to eight thousand dollars and in some way shape or form You gotta you gotta think to yourself. Is that really what he believes or is there something else behind the scene? So just be aware you're gonna see a lot of these stories and that is gonna bring out the FUD And that's the whole point of investing in this in this market Everybody has the brainpower, but the real question is the of the stomach for it So that'll lead me to our next point before I get to that Let me know what you think if we're gonna hit a thousand dollars for Bitcoin or If there's somewhere else you think it could go that would be an interesting topic to go over so now we'll talk about DCing of alts and this was a tweet I put out this morning and And Mad that it gets in traction and I said I'm getting restless and it's true. I'm restless I think I'm gonna break down and start DCing alts going to start light and lay around I expect a two to three year game so thing is When people hear you're gonna start DCing all of a sudden, you know There's a lot of of Feedback which is great You know people seem to either really want to help me or the trolls really want to destroy me. It's always one of those twos So when you're when I'm talking about DCing, I'm not saying like okay, I'm just gonna stop Buying Bitcoin Ethereum. I'm just gonna stop that because that's probably the best option in all honesty But I'm gonna stop all that and I'm gonna put it all on the tron Or I'm gonna put it all into energy token or I'm gonna put it all into dash or something Like that and that's that's not it. I think that's why I start everything on Twitter They kind of get the ball rolling to see what the response is and I read the freebacks and and to see where we go from there So I'm like, this is what I was that's what I was thinking about doing so we have that part and then Front of the show Ben He is not a fan of alts and he's made it very clear why he's not going to get into alts Because you think it's gonna he's gonna bleed between 50 and 75 percent. I think some around 50 percent You think it's gonna go down again and that is when you start to accumulate and Then I as a I as a joke because it's all on a line. I said, hey, I sold my house. I'm gonna I'm going all in a Luna I think it'll bounce back seriously though. I'm gonna talk about today and So when I said that Somebody retweeted that specific comment and they knew what they were doing They retweeted this specific comment without any context and it puts it out there and then people see that and like what an idiot And how dare you and people are losing their lives and da da da. I'm like, well look So you just can't win sometimes and that's just that's just how it goes and I'll just tell you like this And it's awful that people are committing suicide over this situation and there's been multiple news reports about this and It's awful. It's an awful situation and I think if you're retweeting this and you know, I'm talking about here to here to here Then why are you doing it? You're doing it because you're a troll And you have no scruples So to make this very simple Make this very simple I'm gonna delete this tweet. That's stupid and people will keep doing it because trolls are trolls and trolls are trolls and from now on I will just put it out there when I am saying hash tag. It's a joke or just kidding Because I'm not your dad I'm not here to give you advice. I tell you that all the time and What on Twitter? It's very tough to do those things without being crystal clear about what you want Sometimes you got to be a jerk and you got to be that guy. So I'll be that guy if you ever Do that again Out of context I'll troll the hell out of you and I'll just I'll trust keep coming back at you because I just it Nerves me so much when people do that So to make this very very simple Because there's a there's an inability I guess to to find sarcasm I'll let you know when I'm sarcastic or when it's a when it's a joke So that's what's going on in that little situation right there So let's move on to a little bit better topic before my blood pressure goes to the roof Which is this? We talk about alts and I explain explain why I might be doing a little bit DCing into alts The problem is that there's a macro situation, which I think we all know which is the Fed and the Fed dates are coming out Every single month just about I usually had this But anyhow next one we've got this is 2021 Ba ba ba Hold on. This isn't it Let me get this up Fed Okay, sorry So we got June 14th and 15th July 26 27th September 21 number, okay So with this right here, just so you know that these the next Fed dates expect a little volatility during this time Some people say it's priced in some people say it's not it is Potentially priced in if they come out and say yeah at 0.5 or it's half a basis point, okay So if it's that right there, then Then there shouldn't be too much fluctuation even though I think there still will be so the question is if they come out and say Okay, we're gonna go for a quarter point. What would that do the market? Well, what if they come out and say, okay? We're gonna go for a full point because we got a really good inflation or control and J Powell is a big fan of Volcker who was the former Fed reserve share in the 1970s and 80s when Inflation rate was well over 10% so we'll see what happens So we don't really know and we can take a look at all the TA and everything else, but I can guarantee you That if the Fed comes out and again goes a full point That's not priced in or the Fed comes out and says, you know, we're doing a quarter point That's not priced on either fairly certain and then also remember this We've got the CPI which is coming out and that's every single month So if those and we see more inflation and it's also the the producer price index and not we see more inflation Who knows where it could go? So we'd like to see TA to work We'd like to see the macro and we try to do as best we can but we never really know So what I take a look at is this I like to invest in the people and invest into Communities and I can tell you right now if you want to see pretty strong communities. Just take a look at staking rewards See how much of the actual crypto is being staked so When you go to staking rewards comm you can you can filter out any way you want to and This one is filtered by staked value. So of course, you know aetherium is The only has 10. Can you see this? Hopefully you can see this 10% total staked 10% and And so that's got a 25 Billion market cap or value the next one is Solana, which is pretty impressive Solana hasn't been around that long 73.2% 73 almost three quarters of every slotted. It's out there is being staked You got cardano very nice almost 72% then comes avalanche polka dot Binance chain, which is 81% again. It's it's by the staked value But that's still pretty big 81% I know some people say well, it's centralized and da-da-da sure is It's more centralized than a lot, but dang does it work pretty well? And that's just how it is near protocol 44% tron 31 and this was surprising to me I'm not really surprising if you if you know the community algorand a community loves algor and 72% 72% is totally is total staked When I look at this and take a look at the value that it is two billion and 72% Then of course then what there's cosmos at 61% so I take a look at what's happening here If I was going to pick I don't know an alt that maybe be pretty well in the future I would start to look here and see which ones of these and How strong is the community and how is it gonna dump on all see it else So I could want to take a look at the tokenomics how much of that is in in control of specific wallets Well wallets and which ones aren't and what is the percentage of that you can start right here I'm not here to do all your research for you. So that's all we got So let me know what you think about that in the comment section now. Let's talk about what I call micro DCA and It starts with this Yeah, that's off. So Every single day it seems like Bitcoin is been oscillating around 30k 29 and 28 and 31 3029 and just keeps going up and down up and down and like we talked about in the beginning It kind of seems like what's happening here is that when the Bitcoin price starts to go up people start taking profits again That's just how it is. So we're bouncing. We're bouncing or bouncing There's levels of support, but I always feel like levels of support are kind of like ice the more that you break on them And tap on them the more chances they have to break down and then when they break down Then there's another level and another level another level. So it would make sense That this is gonna keep breaking down, right? Just like we thought that it would make sense for like these four-year cycles out We used to talk about remember those four-year cycles all those are good times, right? Four-year cycles And if you know what I'm talking about So it's in 2012 because that was the first Bitcoin having Bitcoin having and then immediately after that We had an all-time high in 2013. Oh, it did go to 1,100 bucks. Okay, and then there was a dip and Then there was a big reset and that was in 2015 then of course we went to this one 2016 having all-time high and there was a big dip in 2018 remember these days All those are good. There was good days in 2017 There was a dip in the reset and then we come down to this one and I thought Honestly, I thought this was it was invalid because in 2020 there was the having and we actually hit did pretty good numbers We went above the previous all-time high, which was in 2017 20,000 and then 2021 20 This was and I pulled this because I hadn't updated this and I just realized that not realized by realize I didn't update it. This is what we got right now It's the same thing So in 2020 there was a having right it's every four years in 2021 did we not get an all-time high 67,000? I mean it wasn't the beautiful all-time high that you know, we'd like to see like where it goes up like 20x But you know, hey, I'll take the 67,000 and then are we not seeing a dip Some might call it a dip some might call it a pullback some might call it a crash But it's the same thing after we hit an all-time high we go to these two points and now here We are again, maybe there's a reset down here So then hopefully this what we see in 2024 again, these are just Fractals just looking from the past and moving forward. So maybe in 2024 when there's another having which that's gonna happen and then 2025 hopefully all-time high and just to Make this crystal clear This is all these havings in 2024 hopefully hopefully in 2020 compared to 2021 and 2016 compared to 2017 and 2012 compared to 2013 It's like the same things going over and over again. So this is my thought And I thought about this And this is just this little little graph here is just it's just me taking 2016-17-19 just placing over here. So we see this again Potentially potentially it could go back down again, and we could fall even further in 2023 but it seems like the things that we want to happen the things that we want desperately to happen the market doesn't do what we wanted to do and Everybody's been wrong Almost everybody. I don't think anybody's out here being perfect. Definitely not Scott Menard Definitely not me. I called for a Bitcoin 150k. Remember that didn't happen. Remember Voyager call 30 bucks. That didn't happen Remember stock to flow Is that still that's still valid, I don't think so There's been other things other people even Ben will admit lengthening cycles. Is that a thing? He's even said it's invalid. I love Ben Smart guy and he says hey didn't work out and then of course Some people still think we're in a bull market whatever so what it comes out to me is like is this All these things that we think are gonna happen and we think that the feds gonna come out and say point five and We think there's gonna still be higher inflation and we think that there's gonna be a GDP slowdown Which means we're gonna have a recession because that'd be that'd be two cores in a row And we think that these wars are gonna go on forever And we think that these supply chains are gonna happen every single time we think these things are gonna happen Doesn't happen. So I'm gonna hedge my bet it all comes out of this. I'm gonna hedge my bet I'm gonna do what's called micro DCing. So I am DCing right now today every single day. I buy Bitcoin a theory It's a sizable amount. I think it's gonna do pretty well Let's not fool ourselves Bitcoin could go down to 22k. Okay, which means what is that 10%? 3 3 6 15 something around there. So even if you DCA today, you're still gonna lose a little bit Now if you sell that's when you lose a lot, right? If you sell or if you want to keep going I just DCA just keep going So if I say Bitcoin Ethereum, then I pick up another two alts below that ones that I think are gonna do pretty well I'm not gonna tell you exactly what those are because I'm sick and tired sometimes of The comments I guess get tired So I'm just gonna say I am not here to do all the research for you You do it yourself But I'll probably pick up two alts and if you know what I'm talking about as far as like what we just talked about here You probably can figure out what those are regardless If I can just say, okay, maybe I'm gonna buy this specific alt, right? I'm gonna buy this specific alt and at whatever price it is at let's say 50 bucks Okay, so let's say that instead of what I would might usually spend maybe a hundred bucks a day Maybe I'm micro dosing of that and do 20% just $20 Because then as it goes down from 50, maybe it goes up a little bit Maybe it goes down a little bit to 40. So I buy it a 40 and then maybe I don't do it every day Maybe do it every week, which is what I'm probably gonna do just every week and then it goes down to 30. That's okay That's okay. It's gonna be all right because I bought it at 50 Then I bought it 40 and I bought it 30 So if it goes on again it goes on again, but maybe it goes back up. So my cost base is around 40 bucks I'm not gonna DC or value cost average and go, you know what? Tron Just sold my house and my kidneys going all in and Tron. That's not DCing That's the whole magic of DCA is that it's not going to keep You're not gonna have this this cost basis all the way up here If you just kind of play it around and of course it could play out just like everybody thinks it is Which is Bitcoin is gonna keep going down Maybe 22k 25k maybe the mark cap goes even further. Maybe another war breaks out. Maybe the supply chains I have no idea and guess what nobody else does either So I'm just gonna do what I think is right for myself and just go You know what I'm just gonna put a little bit maybe 20 or 25 percent of my usual Cost basis or what I would actually put into crypto and go from there and that's it So if it works out great and if it doesn't It's like my friend Mullet says he says it's funny how a short-term trade Turns into a long-term hold when things don't go your way So let's just say that it doesn't go my way. What then well bummer of a deal I just got to wait a little bit longer, but I'm gonna be here for the next 10 15 years anyhow. So who cares? That's just what I'm saying so that's micro DCing instead of going 100% of what I would would buy in maybe a hundred bucks Maybe go 20 bucks. Maybe said every day I go every week thing is the cost basis and I go from there I'm not gonna start buying five or six different alts. That's kind of crazy. Maybe one or two and just go from there Who knows? Maybe I might get lucky and that's what's going on and lastly I will say this This little picture here where I thought that didn't really work in 2021 when we hit in November Yeah, whenever Bitcoin hit 67,000 I think was May actually and and we were all talking about out of embers gonna be pretty good I think it went back up to 60 63, but it wasn't the all-time high and We thought okay, December's gonna be good and it wasn't and we said okay, January's gonna be good It was okay, but it wasn't like 69,000. Okay, and it's okay I might be fed but then we knew as a bear market at that point You know the only person I know of that stuck to the four-year cycle and sold in it was November You know who that was? Crypto nobs Crypto nobs did it and I know he did it because he he was talking about one of his videos a long time I was like, I don't think that's gonna work out and he reminded me on Twitter. So check out crypto nobs great guy brills Good kid got some great analysis and that's it and you can listen to him about the four-year cycle So good for you nobs fantastic and that's it for today. So look That's all I got If you want to stick around for the Q&A just know for the for the streaming Which would I think is gonna be fireworks today stick around should be fun time And then just know that if you're watching the replay for like the next hour or so a Q&A might be here But we split it and make it into a other video. That's it So thanks so much for watching do appreciate it and I'll see you on the next one If you gotta take off all the os if not Let's do some questions This ought to be