 257 Weekly is going to be a very, very big area. Now, if this starts to break, right, you can see this rising support here, or demand, right? If any close below the 257 on the Qs, then you got something to talk about. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Happy home day, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the Access a Trader dot com nightly update show. Hope everybody is having a good training session. Hopefully everybody had a good day. Really good action, macro wise. Again, we are in a little bit of trouble. Again, when I say we, the stock market in general, let's talk about that in a second. So I think when you're in a very, very specific market like this, in a very fluid market like this, that you're getting a lot of headlines, not only from the CDC, obviously, with the COVID situation, we're getting a lot of headlines also with the Fed. It's very, very easy to kind of get caught up in the previous headlines, right? The Fed, it's stimulus, stimulus, stimulus. The market will never go down. Again, the market will never go down until the market goes down. And we've really enjoyed two and a half years now of a really solid, aggressive bull market. Okay, we've seen some obviously dramatic drops because again, nothing goes straight up and nothing goes straight down. Again, and this is not kind of a preview of what I think is gonna happen. Again, I'm looking at this tape on a day-to-day basis, whether it's a macro or a micro, I look at it literally on a day-to-day basis. I'm not in the predicting basis of business. I don't know where things are gonna go, okay? When something looks good, things could turn on a dime. When something looks bad, things could turn on a dime. So I'm not that smart. However, I've come to the realization a long time ago there's only certain things you can control. Number one, you can control your overnight exposure. Well, it basically means you don't need to have any overnight exposure. And you could control your opinion until that opinion becomes conformational facts. And that's kind of what we got going for us. Every single day, and you hear me talking about stocks trading from supply to supply, demand to demand, these are areas of where emotional buyers meet technical sellers that have supply and obviously emotional sellers meaning technical buyers that has demand. And stocks usually trade pretty orally within these channels. So today was kind of a big day. What I liked about going back into yesterday's session was that the cues, if you guys remember in the last night's video, the cues started rejecting off the five day moving average and they fought back into the close, close up the highs with setting up a pretty good premium update at least in the first part of the day. So when we got a down open today, that was perfect. That's exactly what we wanted to see. Any single time you get that strong of a confirmation reclaiming the five day moving average, you're always going to have the benefit of the doubt. So if you look what my opening notes were, and this is the private Twitter feed, I go, this is a perfect open for us, right? Absolutely perfect. A light volume open to the downside. My, you know, basically we talked to him about this at Morning Strategy. You know, maybe early shorts can get trapped and we can get some really good value for the upside. If you noticed, it was all upside pivots today. Like literally all upside pivots, except for one, we'll talk about Tesla in a second, but I really wanted to give the bulls the benefit of the doubt because again, you want to make sure that the end game is either rejection off of a major moving average or supply, okay? Or reclaiming that area and started building up. So I really wanted to see what happened. So we got the open, okay? Really aggressive open. Probably one of the most aggressive opens I can remember. The video was really, really good. I caught in the video, I caught DDOG. Facebook was a monster. Twitter was a monster. And then the market started going a little bit lower. And again, that's not what you, you know, that's not going to put any red signals, right? There's not, no bells are gonna go off because again, the market goes up and the market goes down. The problem was we lost the five day moving average very, very quickly. Again, for all you guys who are joining us the first time, the five day moving average is the shortest term sentiment, okay? It's, there's nothing shorter term. At least for me, that signals where the next move macro is going to go. And we knew today, we started, again, if you've been watching these videos, again, stocks need to reclaim levels. So yesterday we got rejected at the 50 day. Today, we attempted the rally, got rejected at the 50 day again, lost the 10, lost the five. And then obviously everybody knows what happens, what happened towards the end of the day, the Dow down 500 and change, NASDAQ, you know, bloody, bloody, blood, you know, blood mess. Everybody's going crazy. Again, it's not that deep, okay? If you believe in technical analysis and just have just a little bit of a common sense guideline of over under where these technical levels are, again, we're not trying to be right. We're just trying to be prepared. So when those levels get reclaimed, stocks are going to go higher. When those levels obviously start to breach and start to confirm down, they're going to go lower. And if you just take a step back and really look at the cues now, just really take a step back. I just want to kind of make this a little bit bigger so you guys can see. You can see now very, very clearly where the market keeps on getting rejected, right? Here it got rejected at the five, here it got rejected at the 10, here it got rejected at the 50. And again, if you are the most novice trader and just really starting to be kind of new and exposed to technical analysis, it's pretty basic. This is all known as lower highs. Here's a high, here's a lower high, here's a lower high, here's a lower high. And again, not to say that the market now is going to go straight down in a bubble, but that's where the bias is, or excuse me, a straight line, but that's obvious where the bias is, okay? And any single rally until it starts to reclaim macro numbers, you shouldn't be looking for breakouts. First of all, there are no breakouts in a sell bias market. Again, I don't want to call it a bear market. This isn't, you know, this is as far from a bear market. Until this market becomes bear, if you look at the weekly, okay? If you look at the weekly trend line, 257 weekly is going to be a very, very big area. Now, if this starts to break, right? You can see this rising support here, or demand, right? If any close below the 257 on the cues, then you got something to talk about. Then if you want to use the word bear bias, bear tape, bear market, okay? You can use those words then, but until we break this longer term trend, this is the weekly charts going all the way back, you know, all the way back to March, right? That's where obviously the whole COVID started. Then until that happens, again, you could be sell bias, which obviously I am now, but until we start losing this 257 on a close on the cues, then we start talking about really, really aggressive potential levels. And again, you don't need to be, like I said, you know, an experienced chart, you have eyeballs, right? And again, if you believe stocks trade from supply to supply and demand to demand, well, here's demand 257, just to want to give you an idea of what can happen next, right? See this 233, again, one go down in a straight line, but that is your always measure potential. So again, I'm not trying to freak anybody out. Again, for all you guys are watching this broadcast for a long time, you guys know, I'm not a bull, I'm not a bear, I trade both sides of the market. Yesterday it was very, very bullish. Today in the morning I was very, very bullish. And now if you look at the close, right? Okay, that's the whole point. If you look at the close, we breached, right? We breached the trend line that we reclaimed a couple of days ago. So again, that's not good. Okay, and again, you could turn around, you could be a baby about this, and you say, no Dan, we're in a bull market, buy the dip. Okay, you could buy the dip, right? Again, everybody's an adult, everybody has free reigns over their own capital, everybody could do what they want. But again, when you look at a close that again, breached technical damage off this trend line, again, could we gap down tomorrow and reclaim this level and rally back? Of course, anything is possible. This is a stock market. That's why again, you're not trained to be a bull, you're not trained to be a bear, you're trained to be an opportunist, an open-minded thinking responsible in adults. So the market tells you screams that you're gonna go lower, you gotta go over, and the market screams that you're gonna go higher. Well, again, you don't fight the trend, you go with the trend. So it's very, very kind of important to understand. Even if you are a permeable or a long-biased investor, a long-biased trader, again, again, my job is not to freak you out. My job is just to really give you a point of view from 20 plus years of doing this of what potentially could happen. So you're not sitting there with your pants below your ankles sitting there. Well, how could somebody have predicted this happened? I'm telling you, this is technical analysis. Usually, technical analysis is pretty on point of what potentially could have next. So you can make the proper measures, whether it's hedging your portfolio with the cues, with the spies, with any instrument that you can diversify and hedging your portfolio, that's fine. If you are an intraday trader, again, don't start looking for breakouts, breakouts don't happen with technical damage across just because the stock goes up, doesn't mean the stock will stay up. There's gonna be a lot more value to the downside until, again, really very specific levels will be reclaimed again. So again, for example, the cues, if the cues, if the bulls need to survive or are going to survive tomorrow, they're going to need to reclaim back this 265 level. And if they don't reclaim this 265 level, well, here's 261 and here's the 257 that we just talked about on the weekly view. So it's very, very important that the bulls come to play tomorrow. Unfortunately, I hate to say this, I am, you know, if all you guys who are gonna be receiving this email, you know, we're 100% sell buys for tomorrow, until we get something very, very unusual that's coming out of a range to the upside. Again, I have no problems trading the upside tomorrow, but again, it's gonna be more for very, very quick cashflow, nothing more than a rental, nothing more than a kind of a peck on the cheek. Again, when you go through charts and I talk about this every night, okay, again, make it your business, even if you are a trader of six months, a year, a year and a half, two years, make it your business to go through charts. It doesn't take a long time. There's only 100 members of the QQQs. There's only 30 Dow stocks to go through the S&P 500. How long is it gonna take you? 15 minutes, right? So it doesn't really take a big commitment to kind of get a really good grasp of what's going on and what's happening and what potentially could happen. So again, it's not for you to be right. It's for you to take necessary steps to either really try to take away as much exposure. Again, especially if you are holding inventory, but again, put yourself in the right frame of mind of what potentially could happen next. Again, everybody loves a bull market. I love a bull market as much as everybody, but again, everybody knows stocks, stakes, stairs up, right? Elevator down. Again, at least a very, very aggressive morning session. The only short that we had on the pivot fee was obviously Tesla. Battery day came, battery day went, okay. And again, that was the whole point. That was my whole point a couple of days is when I was talking about a battery day. When everybody in retail is talking about, this is the day. I can't wait for this day. I can't wait for this day. I can't wait for this day. Just remember, the pawns on the chessboard, right? They're always the ones who get destroyed first, always get eaten first. And again, when retail all goes in one direction, especially knowing that there's an obvious play that's about to happen. Again, you kind of saw what happened. And again, it's not the point of hindsight is 2020. We talked about what happened in Apple, right? The Apple day, they sold that into news. And as we talked about a couple of days ago, it's not me hating or liking Tesla. I love Tesla, right? I love it. I love it to the long side. I love it to the short side. It's more of what happens when a market has a really, really incredible two, two and a half year run. Stocks have an incredible run going into an event. And usually, unless there's something earth shattering, groundbreaking, again, unfortunately, the market will show you exactly which way is next. So pretty aggressive day, right? Pretty aggressive day. Again, we are definitely sell biased into tomorrow's session. We'll see what happens, okay? If the market somehow gaps up and goes higher, great. But I would love to see a gap up because, again, what I'm looking for tomorrow is a gap up into supply. And if stocks get rejected into supply and start really confirming today's channels, you should get a big move down. But again, I don't care if I'm right. I don't care if I'm wrong. We're wrong all the time. We're idiots. Our opinions, again, don't matter. We're just trying to be prepared for the worst case scenario or the best case scenario and make sure we do our research properly with an open mind going into every single trading day. So let's talk about today's session. Again, we got the perfect open. I was definitely long biased at the open. Really good moves. Really, really good exceptional moves today at the open. Again, this is perfect open. Now let's see what confirms. Good morning. Crowd, again, not a big move, but again, you can see the long biased names. They made their moves. Some of them went up a couple of dollars. Some of them went really, really nuts. But the more moral of the story is stocks definitely got tired and everything got pulled. So here was crowd, 143 needs to build. It was a nice pivot on crowd yesterday. Again, not a huge move, right? So here's the 143, went to 144, and then the market pulled, right? Nothing you could do there. Nothing you could do there. TDOC got this to 17 level and failed. CRM never got to the 249 level. I still like this level, but again, stock is $13 below. I traded in the video. Nice move in the video, 506 needs to build. Here is the area in the video that I really liked. We talked about this in yesterday's channel. So here's the whole 506 area. You can see how many times it got literally rejected to 506, 506, 506, 506, 506, 506, 506, 506. Right, on and on and on. So it took out 506. Nice spike. Nice spike, almost went to the 510 area. So really good move on the video. Really good aggressive cash flow. I call it this DDOG as well. 93, 75, 94 needs to go. So here's DDOG. Oops, excuse me. DDOG, so here's DDOG off this channel right here. This 93, 75, 94, right? You know, nice pop. You know, nice pop into the 95 area. So that was pretty good as well. Again, everything got pulled. So don't think there was a monster moves. Facebook, we talked about Facebook last night in the video. Nice move on Facebook, 255, 50 needs to build. So here was Facebook, right? Here's the 255, 50, right? Here's the 255, 50 needs to build one right to supply to 258. Again, nice move on that. Walmart never confirmed this 139.20. Twitter was really a monster move today. Twitter got upgraded this morning. You know, we said like 44, 44, 20 needs to build. It got upgraded. Here was Twitter, just really exploded. Big move. There was a lot of really aggressive call buying coming in on Twitter very, very fast. They were coming for the 46, the 47s, the 50s, the 55s. So here's the 44, 44, 20 move. You can see one almost to 47. Again, congratulations to all you guys who caught that as well. Facebook, take on the way up. Twitter, take on the way up on the video, perfect. Again, fantastic pushes out of the gate. Now let's see what happens, right? Let's see what happens. Stay patient. And again, here was our only, obviously 159 never got there. So here was Tesla, battery day came in well. This was last night's low, 395 major support. Held several times if it builds below can flush. Obviously experienced traders, not every single trade is for everybody. And you know, Tesla got murdered, right? Tesla got really hit hard again. My apologies, I feel like I do this every single night. But again, e-signal hasn't, you know, it really hasn't helped things out. So here was the 39, excuse me, here was the 395 level right here. This whole 395 level and it cracked and it's, you know, went all the way down to the 360s, which is a very important level just because the 362 level for tomorrow will be the 50 day moving average. So if it opens there and the bulls, you know, if the bulls defend that level at first, it might be kind of a cute little spot to kind of try and remount a trade to the long side off the 362. But for all you guys who I know, a lot of you guys are still long puts overnight, try to cover some around the 362 area. Obviously any close below 362 opens up a whole, you know, different can of worms. And then we start talking about really, really aggressive levels to this 330 low from September the 8th. So again, we're not trying to control the market. We're not trying to freak anybody out. Again, guys, new traders just understand stocks go up, stocks go down. You're gonna see tons of this throughout your career. The most important thing is again, just act like an adult. And nobody cares about any whiny babies. No, then the market will never go down. Okay, that's cool. But the most important part is just again, I understand all jokes aside, gravity's real. The stock market takes, doesn't care which way you wanna go. If you're wrong on your bias, and if you're wrong technically on your bias, you're gonna be very, very aggressively wrong. And that's the truth. So guys, have a great night everybody. We'll get a great game plan for tomorrow. And God's help, I'll see you all tomorrow in the field. Take care.