 Welcome to Figments, The Power of Imagination, season whatever episode, whatever I think it's four and five respectively. It's always good to be with you on think tech why our amazing nonprofit platform for citizen journalists like me. As you know, maybe, if you don't figments is meant to entertain and inspire and we'll do some of that today but we've also got something for you to be concerned about. Before that, my opening rant. Here's what has irritated me today, the difficulty of doing things legally and the ease of doing things illegally. So as I get ready for each show I look for graphics that I can use, and I found some, but the hoops I have to jump through to properly document the copyright, the considerations are ridiculous. It's very difficult to do things the right way. And I had that I have experience in that because if you ever want to try doing something that's really difficult, difficult, try legal immigration. My family has relatively recent experience in that. And I don't think there's anything harder in terms of bureaucracy paper or documentation, you name it. As far as I can tell from the television, it's pretty easy to do it illegally. Now why is that something that irritates me not just because I'm a grumpy old man who wants you to get off my lawn, but because it incentivizes illegal behavior, and in some cases, it's easy to act illegally. The three racially motivated, motivated shootings recently walked show Wisconsin, Buffalo, New York, and in California, in the last one in November and two in the last two days, all racially motivated each motivated each one of those had the, the means existed to prevent them. The perpetrators had been identified, but the legal system was too busy, making hard to integrate or hard to use click bar to prevent these tragedies. That's a bit of hyperbole, but not much. Our legal system needs to incentivize good behavior and prevent bad behavior. And right now it's not doing that. Okay. I feel better, but the least I've entered. I feel better because with me today is my good friend and Air Force, the colleague at Hawkins Hawk. Hello, Hawk. Hey, big Italy, thanks. It's always a pleasure and an honor. That's a pleasure. And we play golf together. We've known each other for years. We served in different places in Korea. And Ed and I both have a lot of interest in the Korean Peninsula. I think that's fair to say. I hope you agree because otherwise, you're on the wrong show. We're there together, right? Yeah. Yeah, we were in dealing with all the things that seem normal. But we've got something here in the last few days that I see is not normal. And if you'll permit me, I'm going to talk a little bit about what I call imagining a nation with underlying conditions because of the tragedy of North Korea. And now with the reported explosive outbreak of a fever. They don't call it COVID because the North Korean government has been saying they had no cases. Nobody believed that, but now something extraordinary is happening. And I think it's extraordinary and I think it has consequences that will affect people far beyond the borders of the hermit kingdom. So in 2019 I was in Dundong, China. Senior on your right, Sinai Ju is to the left Pyongyang, the capital of North Korea is about a 440 miles by road if the roads were any good to the southeast. Very interesting trip. Made it clear that that border was not sealed. About three or four weeks ago the Chinese government announced a lockdown of Dundong. And I said to my lovely wife Alejandra who sadly isn't watching the show live today because she says other duties, Costco. I said to her, and she'll verify this, not under coercion. I said there's going to be major outbreak in North Korea. And I believe that is the source of the outbreak that's happened in the last few days and here's what's happened they locked down Dundong. After the of course there were infections with the border open, and they, they had opened the border before the lockdown so cases could spread. And then there was a major North Korean parade than if you are North Korean students of North Korea like Ed and I are, you know that that's not, that's not 23 people from the BFW on Main Street that's a major event but tens of thousands of people. And they went through a progression of announcements in the last four days. First, we've got our first case of COVID. Okay, that's interesting. We have several deaths. Then 200,000 800,000 and now over a million people either having been treated or being treated and I think that last year and it was 820,000 maybe in some sort of treatment protocol. Park did that surprise you and surprised me in terms of the announcement. Yeah, because they've been so secretive, you know, about, I think it's nobody really thought that they didn't have any, but this huge announcement of the huge outbreak so quickly, and it seems to be true. You know, it seems to be true. They're treating it like true. And I think that has implications on you know what, what North Korea Kim and his people will do from now on. And I think that's part of what we're going to talk about. It is so the the admission more than the presence of the disease is what shocked me. What, what do you think could drive Kim Jong-un to drop the veil and say we have a Houston or one sign we have a problem. What would motivate him to do that. Well, I'm thinking several reasons. First is, when you have small outbreaks, you could probably hide it, but when it gets to a million or so. There's no way, absolutely no way you could find hide it. So the people know, and one of the major things that Kim and the leadership need, even though it's a totalitarian government is support of the population. And it may be a way to one to acknowledge second to show care for the people, you know that here's the great leader, the leader, the great leader, the dear leader, whatever later whatever he's called now is caring for the people. And then the, the third thing that I saw because Kim reached out and blame the, the cabinet and health sector that looking for a scapegoat, you know, somebody to blame, and that's because he can't be blamed. Right. Yeah, so let me interrupt to correct myself and say that he didn't blame the military, but he has, quote, mobilized the military to not blame them to do whatever. And to me, it almost looks like a purge is coming. In Korea, but in North Korea. There aren't many second chances. Yeah. And if you are in fact held accountable for allowing perhaps perhaps big the logical argument from that point, once they've acknowledged once he's trying to find scapegoats that it maybe, although I'm not too. Not to clear on this one is maybe it's a way to reach out for outside help. You know this and that's it. Yeah, that's what you see in most of the western media gives cause for him to reach out to outside help. Now that he could have done that anyway. And I mean he didn't need to. He didn't need to admit a million plus infections to say hey, we need some help. I mean, it's not the North Korean way they were offered vaccines from the Chinese and others and through the United Nations covex program and what did they say to that offer. They refused it. Yeah, they did. Yeah. And the reason was you know we know what the reason is that he didn't want outside monitoring. You know that's one of the things they're such a close society. Any kind of outside help like that and that's, and that's one of the things that I think we need to consider is that he has not requested it yet right outside help, even though young has the new president of South Korea is offered. But I think that's one of the things that we should consider you know what happens, if he does not, and there's a very good likelihood that he may not. So, there's so much to talk about here and I think we're going to run out of time even though we've just started. And he's a human who's a week or so into his term at office. Have a nice day here's your first big problem. He's more conservative than his predecessor, largely seen as a hardliner on North Korea. But if anything about all of this encourages me, it's that he has said hey, we will help if we can't. And from a humanitarian shoot from a human sense. That's the right thing to say so I'm encouraged by that but how do you help North Korea. I mean, send vaccines too late, send medicines. What medicines are they so what what can what could that help be was another question in terms of regime legitimacy. The population is suffering and has been suffering from it for decades. Maybe the announcement is justification for further crackdown. I know it's hard to come up with a truly plausible explanation, but then again we don't have Kim Jong-un's perspective. Let's talk a little bit about the consequences because when I heard this and even three weeks ago when Dundong was locked down my vision, and I'm probably wrong I can't predict baseball playoffs or anything else. I've been right about some COVID predictions that I could see millions of people dying North Korean people dying. What do you think. Well it depends on the actions and from what we've seen so far. You know, Kim and the regime is not even called a COVID yet. They're saying. Yeah, it's a fever, a fever, yeah fever and some complications that's hospitalized and they're beginning to a quarantine. That's the only thing that they've, they've offered as a as a option. The other thing is blaming. How's that working. Pardon me while he interrupted. How's that working in China. Not so well, but go ahead. Right, so they're following the Chinese I think they're going to follow the Chinese example at least for the short term, but but the other the other point is that Kim has blamed the health sector, and getting medication out to the people, you know, he has said that we need to get medication. Now medication is palliative. They're just, you know, like cold medicine and things like that. What he needs is remdesivir or something like that to fight it, and also testing right. Those are the two things that that you need. And I think the assessment right now is that North Korea has very little of this. So that's not even emphasize, but that's what they need to fight this. And I'm very pessimistic yet about about even that helping much because if you have a massive infection in a chronically malnourished population, then the testing is kind of irrelevant. I don't know, you know, if this is centered in Pyongyang, it is difficult to get around North Korea. Maybe there's not enough transit internally to spread it. But the flip side of that dark flip side of that is even if you get medicines. Any kind of anything that will assist the population. How do you get it around North Korea back when I was a deputy commander US Pacific Command. One day I went into the intelligence assessment. And our intelligence folks like you reported that a North Korean coal ship had sunk between Japan and the southeastern side of South Korea and I. What's a North Korean cold ship doing there. Where is it going. And the answer is, it was going from the west coast of the east coast, because the roads are too bad the internal infrastructure and this is back in 2006 or seven was too bad to put it on a truck or a train car and send it across and that's happened at least a couple times since I think as recently as 2019 so their ships aren't very good, but their infrastructure is even worse. So let's say the world gets together and instead of spending $40 billion firing, fueling the death and destruction Ukraine and I do want Russia is but I'm concerned about the focus of our assistance. And when the clouds get together and puts together a humanitarian medical assistance package. You can't get it anywhere in North Korea and that's what. That's what makes me think that the very negative outcome millions of deaths could be inevitable. But it could. So let's take a quick break here from that sunny prophecy we'll come back and then I'll talk more about what what can we do if we can do that. And then I'll talk about some other possible consequences to tell you that I have no idea a month from today, what the next show will be about because there's so much stuff going on in the world so imagine just imagine what pigments the power of I'll be back on June 13 after a break for Memorial Day. Same back time same back channel. And hopefully I'll have some good news because we haven't been really in a wash in good news from them, or it recently rather. One of the many things I worry about in terms of the outcome is, what does this do to the regime, could you, you and I have watched people or heard people predict collapse of the North Korean regime for decades since the mid 90s. Could this be it could this be the straw that broke the Kim dynasty's back. Well, we've, for decades we've said it's right around the corner, you know, nine lives right, yeah, and probably more. So I, I'd be hesitant to say this is it. But this is going to, going to tax them, you know, I think mobilization of the military. I think that addresses what the concern that you raised about getting, you know, anything out to that's the only infrastructure they have to get anything out to the hinterlands, you know, the military, they can probably address that. But it's, I don't think you could say, you know, I think we've been wrong so many times before. That they're going to collapse. But this is going to try them and I think this acknowledgement is, is the first step I think, and trying to deal with this somehow. I mean, an interesting point that was made by in one of the Korean Central News Agency reports Casey and a government news outlet was that the most of the deaths and who knows how many they've had more than 20 at this point. You use a multiply function on your calculator. Were people using the wrong drugs in response. So, I've read a lot about the North Korean experience up to what makes me so interested in it and the psychology of fear that permeates the repressed society, then you and I both lived in Korea and me for four years and you for a couple. You can picture this isolated hungry panic population trying home remedies that do in fact kill them, and they're more vulnerable to that. And so, if if Kim is trying to stave off panic, and he does it with the military. But the military gets sick too. And there's a lot of instability and dictators do not have absolute power. So, like you I know that we've all been wrong before I very inaccurately predicted the demise of the North Korean regime it was going to happen in 1998 I was certain of it, and it didn't. It was with the impact on the population and on the, on the military. This could be it if that happens what do we have to worry about. I mean so what yay North Korea is done the regime is gone. South Korea can just take over. Everything's got we've we've never experienced where the leader loses legitimacy in the north. And what that may portend. There are probably sectors, you know, some people groups that know the real situation, you know, day to day that that may be able to step in but we don't know that the only party in the military is where the power is. I don't think I've told this story on on pigments that let me share I had a friend who worked for the United Nick have a friend he worked for the United Nations in North Korea. Great guy. And when he was in North Korea, he his family stayed in New Zealand. And he traveled to see his family, what during the Ebola outbreak. And this guy was a senior enough guy that the North Koreans watched him in a fairly senior levels handler is his interlocutor who kept an eye on him. He came back from homely one end of Pyongyang and had a very strict three week lockdown for Ebola in North Korea. And that made him mad and he's kind of guy you just see him getting grumpy about my kind of guy. And so, once he's out of the house arrest and gets a chance to talk to his counterpart. Hey, relatively senior North Korean. He starts complaining about this unnecessary quarantine. And the North Korean relatively senior officials says to him, Oh, you, you have to understand so so you were in New Zealand. Over 2000 people die or over 10,000 people died in New Zealand from Ebola and it's up to a million in Japan. There's no doubt about that. How complete is isolation from the truth that lets us a North Korean official think that Ebola is killing 10s of thousands millions of people in Asia. So who knows, who knows. Well right now he's clearly in charge and he's in charge but yeah, but how big is the epiphany going to be. Let's say you're a mid level North Korean official running something. And as far as you know the COVID program has worked perfectly. And the next thing you see, lots of people are sick and dying. What does that do to your loyalty of the government keep even put yourself in North Korean shoes. Well, the regime Kim included you know they've not cared much about people dying. They've let people starve, you know the famines that they had in the past millions of people right possibly die so it could get to that position and still be legitimate. I think it all depends on what he does you know, I think the first step is, they're good at quarantine, you know. Yeah, that's your life, China, for example. So I suspect that that's what will he will try first. But if that doesn't control it, then I think that's where, you know, the unknowns come in, what's what's going to happen when that doesn't work. And I think one way to look at what they, how they might do and he may use that to reach out to the outside. We talked about help you know asking for help, which is very difficult, difficult for the North Koreans to do. But I think one of the things that we should take a look at is the emergence we haven't heard much from the bad cop, you know, Kim's sister. Yeah, so he's nice. Yeah, so if, if we hear something from the bad cop, it may portend that they're going to hunker down. If not, then maybe they'll ask for outside help. And maybe that will alleviate some of the problems. That's boy that's really interesting yet I think you're you're onto something about the, if the lovely sister, who is as you said the bad cop comes out that'll indicate the direction that they're taking. But I, I don't see China responding too much. Do you, because I think they've got their own problems. I think China's. Well, you said the vaccine and elsewhere. Yeah, right, right. And there's only their only solution. The example they can offer us the quarantine, which you're doing. So I guess the Sinovac and the others that they may have got some of that. But there is a major impediment to to quarantine as well sorry to talk over yet but I know we're getting close to the end but yes totalitarian totalitarian states are pretty good at that. But rural North Korea is far different than metropolitan Shanghai, a and B, given the current food shortage, which is one in a long list of food shortages starvation is going to be an issue. And if you have a choice between food or the virus you're going to take food and accept the virus. So, to me that portends potential unrest. In my mind. There is very little we can do, but here's my proposal. I cannot please shoot holes in it after I give it it goes back to my time and pay con in late 2007 North Korea is based with very significant flooding. And very significant. And there are many populations isolated and potentially starving and already starving nation. And my proposal to the senior leaders in the US was to do humanitarian rations airdrop to and an offer to the then Kim Jong-il regime. No conditions no American flags on the packages we had done humanitarian rations drops in Iraq Afghanistan and elsewhere were pretty good at it. But they're starting people we could feed them and I thought it would a do the right thing and be changed the paradigm of discussion between the two countries. I think something like that could be an approach for the United States. And I remind you, we're spending $40 billion and feeling destruction in Ukraine. I want Ukraine to win. Just no one. This war to be our preferred mode. Why not provide a mixed airlift and airdrop because again you can't distribute once he gets their major airfields to various parts of North Korea that are intelligence experts say needed need to help most food and medicine. And I asked somebody in the National Security Council and I proposed this back in 2007 said well, big what if what if North Korea refuses. Well, then they, they prove themselves guilty of crimes against humanity. But so what if they refuse. You know you mean fight your way in. I said well we fight our way into kill people why don't we fight our way into feed people. In this case why don't we do whatever is necessary to provide some kind of relief, we can offer if accepted. Great, if not take some risks. Because this is huge, potentially a huge humanitarian disaster that will create instability and we haven't even talked about this said a nuclear arm nation. Imagine a collapse of this what do you think of that good or bad Colonel Harkins over to you. I think you got to consider the other side of your proposal, and that is will United States in the American public support that, you know that that is the key. And right now, you know with North Korea supporting Russia against Ukraine and you know the narrative of Russia launching missiles developing nuclear weapons. I'm not sure. I'm not sure if this administration in this year of the midterms, plus Congress, and the American people would support something like that. That's not. I'm not sure they would either but that's not a game. I don't have to care. I'm in fact I'm pretty sure they wouldn't. That's not a political statement. And so we, you know there's a tendency right now, and likely to invest in failure rather than success we could change the paradigm and assist the suffering population. Luckily I'm not a politician so I don't have to get support for it. Interesting situation watch for the next few weeks that pray for the best for North Korea, the people of North Korea, not the government, but also the world because if there is instability there is collapse if there are nuclear weapons. This could be much worse than a simple expansion of the pandemic so thanks for sharing your thoughts with me as always talk. We will see you on the golf course, where you will take my money again. In the meantime, folks if you would please check out the playlist for both this show figments our imagination, and the former figments on reality which was more commentary. And remember that our friends at think tech Hawaii make this possible. They're wonderful nonprofit just like I'm a nonprofit kind of guy in this endeavor. And I invite you to join in their spring fund drive and keep their work possible. So with that Aloha see you in a month. You can also follow us on Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and LinkedIn and donate to us at think tech Hawaii.com. Mahalo.