 Hi, my name is Liam Rowe currency trader and trading coach at trading 180 comma welcome to this week's applying demand for X and gold fundamental and technical Analysis, please don't forget to like subscribe and share the video content if you find what I provide every week useful and If you're new to trading 180, this is a combination and what I provide is a combination of Fundamental analysis with technical analysis supply and demand strategies to make the best trading decisions, so Let's get into the the week ahead on trading economics comms. So Zooming in a little bit one second It will be the busiest week of summer for the US with the Federal Reserve decision second quarter GDP growth rate and earnings report For more than a third of the S&P companies taking center stage We're just focusing really on the the Fed decisions in second quarter GDP growth rate Also euro zones largest economies including Germany France Italy in Spain will be publishing key reports on growth and Inflation and I definitely advise you guys to have a read of you know the details At trading economics comm if you click on the tab, it's the week ahead tab In fact, what I'll do is I'll just go backwards a little bit Yeah, so you should see if you're watching this it should be in the one of the first top boxes That you'll see if you click on that week ahead and then you'll get Then you'll get that anyways, let's get into some of the more in-depth fundamentals and technical levels looking at the dollar index and the dollar index dollars pulled back a bit So if we can zoom out, I'm always saying to the guys in the private members group zoom out to see where you are, right? Because it gives you a much better perspective As to you know where fair value is potential fair value is in bargain prices are from a daily perspective and And so what we have here, I think we might have broken that level. Yeah, so dollar index is just a measure of strength dollar strength against the basket of currencies and We finally pulled back really as we as prices, you know predicted to So really I would say that the monthly moving fair value some traders would know that as just a moving average And that's a EMA and an SMA simple moving average and an exponential moving average, but it's really understanding that moving average is Is is understanding an average is fair value, right? It's an average Mean which is in price terms and value terms is is fair value in the 21 periods would be 21 trading days in a month So that would be the monthly Moving fair value and that's just telling you where fair value prices over the month, right? And so for me personally, I like to not necessarily buy look to buy if prices are above A fair value because that would indicate their prices in an expensive area, right? So I want to see price kind of come down to the least a monthly moving fair value before really establishing Some some some some buy trades or sell trades, of course and on the dollar index has come down this week So decent buying opportunity For any kind of a dollar trades if you're looking to still get bullish They still bullish on the dollar, which I actually am regardless of the potential negative headlines that are occurring. So We've had this headline which is US business activity contracts for the first time since 2020 so US business activity contracted in July for the first time in more than two years as Manufacturers and service providers signal sluggish demand only adds to heightened recession anxieties the SNP global flash composite Purchasing managers output index slid 4.8 percent to seven. I'm sorry forty seven point five The weakest reading since May 2020 the group reported on Friday outside of the early months of the pandemic The July figure is the weakest in data back to 2020 2009 sorry readings below 50 indicate contraction the first the new orders gauge expanded modestly after Contracting the previous month. So it's not looking fantastic for the for the dollar at the moment. There is contraction Obviously in a business activity Which is basically just a sign It's not, you know, the US is going into a recession and also as well you have to compare When looking at forex pairs Both currencies, right? So yes, you might be wanting to sell the dollar But is Europe better than the dollar is the you know, the UK better than the dollar So in my opinion, it's not and this isn't try financial trading advice. This is just You know my opinion and I think the dollar should still want to at least in the short term still strengthen over at least those two economies and currencies and We also have pal as well seen slowing feds Hikes after seventy five basis point net next week. So surveyed economists see a big July increase in the downshift So rates may peak at three point seventy five percent in February and then decline. So Hiking rates generally is and typically is Appreciates a currency And but you would need really the economy to show that You know to support those hikes now at the moment the economy is supporting those hikes when it comes to the The US economy and I think for me the again the US is in a better place Economically then a lot of the other Economies major economies like Europe and the and and the UK The Federal Reserve Chair Gibran powders likely to slow the pace of interest rate increases after front-loading policy with a second straight 75 basis point next week economists Surveyed by Bloomberg said so there again the market is more forward-thinking. So The 75 basis points pretty much been priced in anything Less than that would be probably a shock or anything more than that was going to be definitely a surprise to the market so a Pullback on that dollar. I think Is is decent and allows really decent buying opportunities before the news is released. So Let's see, you know, really how that plays out but for me At least in the short term to medium term, I'm still bullish on the dollar So how that plays out using the dollar index is really looking for any kind of demand zones As confluence with any buying of the dollar On dollar crosses like the dollar yen, for example, if you want to be a buyer of the dollar Against the yen if you don't have it, it doesn't really matter so much But I was it's always good to look at the dollar index as a From a bigger picture and seeing what the dollar is doing against other currencies looking at the dollar yen Dollar yen it was due a pullback, right? I was saying that this is, you know, pretty Expensive when you consider, you know, the dollar over the past, you know, year-to-date if you look at where we are This is an absolute bargain for the dollar. Look at look at that the 115's And now you're seeing obviously, you know prices trend higher. This was due to Fundamental divergences, you know, you can look back, you know, it's not hindsight bias Really if you understand that hiking rates should have a positive effect and I say positive but appreciative effect on the On the dollar and really the the Bank of Japan has been very dovish So you'll see in that, you know, really kind of play out prices have pulled back now in fact, you know Below the monthly moving fair value and now is back into some decent Bargain of potential bargain prices. So I'm looking to now establish some potential long trades here against the the yen But let's see what happens if you are looking to get short on that on the yen then there is Some supply here that you could look towards Shorting the dollar and buying the end you'd really have to believe that the yen is a bargain up at these prices For me, I think the yen is definitely would be a start to look like an even Better bargain above the 140s, but I think down here on a pullback I think the dollar is still a potential buy so looking at these levels here the 135's 134's as As entry points on on lower time frames if I can get it looking at the dollar Swiss dollar Swiss Not really a pair that I'm looking to trade But I do think that this zone is decent Especially the lower end of this zone in 90 to 0.95 cent area if prices do pull back that could be a nice buy technically do like that Cell trade if you're looking to buy the Swiss Frank, then you have you know really pullbacks I would say into these zones Probably have to do that. Yeah pull back into these zones areas here The Swiss Frank Swiss National Bank is looking to hike rates So I wouldn't necessarily expect prices to really kind of trend any more I'd expect Prices to really be in a in more of an auction of sideways or ranging Moving market from probably from here out and see what happens Going forward, but those are your pretty much your options dollar CAD dollar CAD again prices pulling back If you are a buyer of the US dollar, then this is actually a decent buying opportunity to look to get long With risk being more off than on I think dollar does the US dollar does benefit from that So in fact, this is actually a decent buying opportunity to look for any kind of long trades For a short trade perspective. I definitely look for you know, these highs If I'm looking to buy the Canadian dollar the one three twos as the That's a really good buying opportunity. Technically, I do like that But not really a pair again. I'm interested in trading Again, you've got two central banks looking to hike rates, but With the overall risk of environment the dollar should probably be more supported out of the two New Zealand dollar US dollar. We have had a decent pullback This week on the New Zealand dollar US dollar come up into this supply zone here again above now the Monthly moving fair value. So again in a risk-off environment, you would expect the dollar really to To strengthen at some point I'm saying it's going to strengthen in that zone But overall these are basically buying opportunities for the US dollar The New Zealand dollar It's struggling a bit out of the commodity currencies is probably the weakest out of the between I guess the Canada and Canadian dollar and the Australian dollar But I do think that if prices come up to that 64 area I think that might be actually a decent buying opportunity for the US dollar But again, as long as we maintain our the risk-off Sentiment within the market. I think the prices should probably want to auction fair value auction or range from this 64 area here to the 60 Pretty fives if not, then you're definitely looking at this area here the 6550s as an area that prices may want to come to before looking to buy the US dollar in the current environment Pound dollar pound dollar in the pound at the moment Looking for short trades For me anyway and prices have come up to an area now that I do want to be a buyer of the dollar and this 1.2 Five area at this zone here. So looking at the UK and Where are we now so? UK inflation heading for 11% readings later this year's food and energy costs rise So rising petrol prices took UK headline inflation another leg higher in June as we expect it to peak above 11% in October But core inflation may have already peaked and that means today's numbers are Unlikely to change too many minds when it comes to August's Bank of England's decision we are now we still narrowly expect a 50 basis point hike at that meeting and So inflation is still rising and I think the Bank of England have been given a bit of a pass when it comes to Hiking more and 50 at 50 basis points rather than 25 basis points And this is really because of the month-on-month GDP figures that were released last week that came out more Positive than expected. So I think the bank is taking that as a sign to try to hike more Then what they would but there's lots weighing on the on the pound risk-wise One of them is that traders see losses in pound Guilt's market, which is basically bonds bond market if this trust wins So Sunak is the favorite of the market says blue bays hence and traders site worries over Bank of England pressure and EU relations so The far-reaching economic policies backed by Foreign Secretary Liz trust would spark losses in UK currency and bond markets According to investors at some top asset At the sorry at some of the top asset managers So I'll read this bit here, which is Trusts has made expansive tax cuts a cornerstone of a platform Which would imply big increases it in UK borrowing investors also point to her tough stance of Europe European relations and Promised to review the Bank of England's mandate as other worries though It's unclear whether she would actually carry out these plans. So there's there's a few quite a few worries as far as government policies that will have, you know, I guess asset managers are Concerned with when it comes to this trust potentially winning. So with that being said, I Do you think the pound is a short? Pretty starting from now and prices, you know, go a bit higher than just for me anyway I'm looking for more short trades at least it definitely in a short term. So Yeah, let's see what happens with the British pound If you are looking to buy the the dollar then the bottom of the really this this range here is going to be I guess it's the auction Be definitely something to look for if prices do come back to this 117 area looking for potential buys there But I really want to see something fundamentally change for me to want to be a buyer of the pound against the dollar looking at the euro dollar And the euro dollar has come up into a nice nice area Which I'm again want to be short on It did kind of blow through this supply zone and as I you know say that really anything below Monthly moving fair value is is really not a trade for me. So anyone you try to get short there You really were getting short, you know in an expensive area now prices have come up and Now looking for a potential Short trade button on the on the daily supply Zone perspective there really isn't anything until prices or unless prices come up to, you know The 104s which is entirely possible for sure And I think that in fact is going to be a very nice trade if prices do come up Come back up to the 104 50s to 105 areas, but currently as we stand, I don't think there's anything from a daily Supply zone perspective there are Intra-day setups that I really like on here, but that's beyond the scope of Of this video technically but looking at the Europe fundamentally we've got Eurozone activity is suddenly shrinking in recession omen. So We're seeing this, you know really around all the major economies. It's not exclusive to just the US or you know The UK it's you know, there's a there's a I guess a global slowdown Which is affecting everybody so they say, you know a rising tide lifts all boats, but also can sink all boats, right? Anyways private sector activity in the euro area Unexpectedly shrink for the first time since the pandemic lockdowns of early 2021 Adding to signs that a recession might be on the horizon. So recessions everywhere potentially a Survey of purchasing managers by S&P global dropped to a 7 to 17 months low in July dipping beneath the levels that signals contraction the downturn was driven by worsening output among manufacturers and a near stalling of service sector growth economists have had expected a mild expansion. So again, that took you know economists by surprise and so for me Just like the US The euro is potentially heading into a recession, but I think Europe again have a lot More problems and bigger problems than the US as we know, you know, the gas crisis risk as well So if if Russia and Putin Pretty much turn the taps off or don't necessarily restart or restart at a lower capacity than what they were giving before then it's gonna have really affect the whole of Europe and Would you know send the euro a lot lower? we've been reading a lot of bank analysis in the in the private members group and They're pretty much all saying the same thing, but the euro could actually be a decent buy if You know the fears about the taps the gas taps being turned off Don't come to fruition. So you you know, there's there's targets of potentially 107s, you know around these highs 107s Being around here the euro could rally to so again, there is It could go either way it depends on how the market kind of takes it but if if if the if basically Putin doesn't turn off the taps and keeps the gas flowing Then Europe will end or an euro will may avoid a recession sooner And that will cause the euro to rally But none of us know until really the news actually comes out So let's see what happens with that but for now my bias is still to the short side But there is a definitely a contrarian and an opportunity to get long on the the euro At the moment so either way you look at it any pullbacks that could be a nice buying opportunity for the euro Or if you're not obviously in the group and you're looking at supply zones and you're looking for cell trade You really have to wait for prices to come up here And the reason why I said if you're not in the group is because again There's an intraday setup that I really like currently and again That's beyond the scope of this video Looking at the Australian dollar US dollar and again a bit of a pullback Decent Pullback not really a pair I'm interested in in buying for the moment although I do like the Australian dollar as a buy But not really against the US dollar currently if there is a pullback I Think that's very nice Technically for a for a buy trade any cell trades and then just a zoom in a little bit Yeah, I think any cell trades right now or even at the 70 around the 70 cent area I think is going to be decent for a cell trade technically Again in the risk-off environment the Australian dollar should be the weaker out of the two in the US dollar should be more supported Australian dollar Japanese yen We're getting you know a bit of a pullback prices did kind of peak above that supply zone there But not actually quite into the the higher area. I'm gonna basically delete this and Draw supply zone from there and not the strongest area of supply to be fair, but it's there and you also have Higher high there. So you do have price In between this supply and this demand zone daily supply and demand Again, although I understand that From a risk sentiment perspective the yen should be the one to strengthen. I do think my bias Think but my bias is still to buy the Australian dollar fundamentally because especially if it comes down to the 91 cent area It's I think it's going to be a decent buy for the Australian dollar I'm still not, you know convinced that the Until the Bank of Japan really start to get a bit hawkish in their monetary policy I'm gonna be a buyer of the Australian dollar and Yes, I think that's where we are, but I think the top end 96 97 area is decent for a cell trade if you're looking to buy the Japanese yen Technically but fundamentally my bias is definitely still to buy the Australian dollar and gold gold gold A nice pullback a very nice pullback to really the bottom of this of this long-term auction, right? So prices if you understand what you're looking at, which is really an auction prices are auctioning and This was a This has been a bargain price, right? It's been a bargain back in 2021 A few times several times the prices went to the upside. Is it going to be a bargain here again? Who knows but we've got an expensive sorry an expensive area at the top Yeah, that's expensive and this is you know cheap or bargain prices at the bottom and in between that is fair value And what basically buyers are sellers and saying that over a you know Two-year period two and a half year period This has been expensive and this has been a bargain price for gold, right? So For me a decent area to look for buy trades There could be a potential stop-hunt around that 1660s Area around here and if there is a stop-hunt around there, I think that's going to be an absolute steel for the for the for gold and Again looking at Just some fundamental news is that gold at the mercy of King dollar slumps to lowest since March 2021 to see Group and UBS see Trough this year before 2023 recovery and I was saying this last week I believe ultimately the the banks financial institution in fact I say I believe but It's on record The central banks are increasing their gold buyers and remember they buy for the for the long term right for the medium to long term So this for them is an absolute bargain if they believe that next year if we're going into a potential recession in 2023 and the Federal Reserve have to you know Probably potentially start to look to cut rates and central banks around the world are going to be cutting rates And the dollar starts to potentially weaken That should in fact You know be positive for gold again over the next 12 months. So this is going to look like an actually bargain price Potentially so for me my definitely my bias is to is to go long on gold It just depends on the timing when I think I'm going to probably start to establish some some the long trades on Gold if the right setup does come along. Anyways, if you're looking to sell gold If you are looking to sell gold, let me just get rid of some of this some of the drawing and Yeah, I think any any sell trades decent right there Looking for short trades if you are looking to you know Continue to buy the dollar and sell gold right because they typically work her inversely But um, but yeah, my bias is to the to the upside so any pullbacks especially down to that 17 round number 1700 round number to 1690 1680s at the lows and even below that anyways guys That's it for this week. I hope you have a great trading week and take care all the best