 Great everybody welcome to the weekly DCA show dollar-cost average as always I've got my trusty Trusty friend James here from the best answers James. Thanks for stopping by if we're again for the show. I appreciate it and Then we also got Ben from into the cryptiverse who is back from his two-week hiatus as he goes around and has fancy parties and things like that for the Miami Bitcoin conference, which I got to get his His foresight into what happened actually so we'll take a look at first today I got a couple of questions for you geniuses, which is this first of all, which comes first new Bitcoin all-time high or a Recession second of all, what are some signs to look for in recession major crypto downturn and could crypto market uncorrelate? from stocks Also, what turns the crypto market around is On-chain data accurate how can be manipulated and then also what's your biggest takeaways from Miami conference because James you covered all three days Ben you were actually there. So these are the questions. I like to ask and as always you can find Ben's information as far as into the cryptiverse in the description of this video And you can also check out his great websites app dot into crypto verse which I use all the time I steal all the stuff and then also James you can find him on invest answers as well as his patreon group Which I've also linked in the description below. So gentlemen, welcome to show Hey guys, well, thanks for having us. Yeah, of course. Let's get into it. Which comes first new Bitcoin all-time high or a Recession because I got to tell you me personally I think a recession is on the horizon the question is when so I'd like to see like a macro View and then also a TA view. So of course, let's start with the macro with the big stuff James. Let us know what we don't know So I get labeled a macro guy It's funny because I've lived through a lot of these now over my time and one of the funniest things to mention first is Number one for the audience to know is a recession is always coming at some point in the future the question is of course when and I think definitely looking at all the data and everything else There's so many indicators telling us that yes, the recession is coming probably very close to year-end 2022 or early 2023 so we have at least eight months and But you know when you when you look at recessions typically You the by the time they announce that our session is here It's already halfway over or about to end which is really interesting now in terms of your question Which is gonna come first a recession or a new all-time of Bitcoin. I just look at the numbers and You know, the supply crunch is there a lot of videos and supply crunch yesterday I've been talking about for a long time red alarms are going off Also in the real world people now realize the pain that inflation is causing and Everybody's looking for a hedge. Not everybody knows what that hedge is yet, but the question is what will it be and Also, we look at the different asset classes and I monitor all the indexes Commodities and stuff like that since the Russian invasion Bitcoin's up 7% and this is when I measured this about an hour or two ago And everything's volatile S&P 500 up three and a half percent gold 3% the QQQ Which is a Nasdaq top 100 stocks 2.3% so from that perspective you could argue decouplings happening now the question is Can we add 41% over the next eight months before the recession hits? I think yes, that is very probable Because last time we did it in what 50 51 days back in beginning of October to early November So yes, my answer is Bitcoin you all-time high could hit before recession hits All right. Well, I gotta tell you everybody likes that answer because they want to see some action So that will leave me in my next or to talk to Ben here Ben What do you see as far as the charts? What are the charts tell us because I got to tell you in different parts of YouTube? I see people calling for 20k 12k 9k craziness like that. What do you see? Yeah, there's always people calling for No matter how no matter what price we go to there'll always be someone calling for a lower price, right? And James was right. There's always a recession coming I always think about when we whenever we talk about recessions like there's always like if you think back to like the pandemic when it when that's first Started there was a talk about it being the next great depression, you know and and lasting Many years even up to a decade. It was all over YouTube There were talks of the housing crash of 2021 and I don't know about you guys But the housing crash didn't mark didn't crash in 2021 as far as I can tell I Don't think we're gonna see any new highs this quarter. I mean I've said that I think I said that a few weeks ago as well when I was when I was last on I don't think Bitcoin is going to any new all-time highs this quarter. I think there's too much There there are enough reasons I think for us to just be happy with it being at the current price I think you know you look at a lot of a lot of overarching trends like the dollar and and I'm not understand the dollars not bullish against every crypto But it's unmistakable when the dollar is in a macro uptrend like it is right now Bitcoin just isn't putting in new all-time highs This is something we've it's this is how it's always been. I mean look things could change But that's just how it's been before and I I would just keep assuming that this time is not different in that sense And that as long as that as long as the dollar is moving higher. I don't really expect Bitcoin to put an annual all-time high I mean, maybe it could do it late this year, but I don't really see it happening This quarter and and maybe not even next quarter either. So I mean as far as a recession. I mean I Guess it's first of all, I guess they don't actually have to be like exclusive like you could have a Bitcoin high in a recession But I know if they're everyone for I don't think that's what happened, but Look, I mean, I think that we're likely looking at at a bit more chop here Three, you know for another three months at least probably probably even longer Before we're before we're looking at new all-time highs Whether that ends up getting defined as a recession or not as anyone's guess I mean if you think about the recession in 2020 it lasted just a few weeks before it was technically no longer a recession. So I mean Obviously with the yield curve and inversion and all that stuff and that being a good predictor You I guess you would assume that something like that could happen But I also think it's ultimately going to come down to to whether how hawkish the Fed ends up getting and and whether they actually allow for a soft landing or not and and if the dollar stops its rampage in You know in the short to medium term and and once once that turns back around I'll get a lot more bullish on on Bitcoin, but in the short term I would say no all-time highs not at least not in Q2 Yeah, I can see that and then well, let me let me do a quick follow-up because that would lead me to your website. I Love your website. I lurk around there. Of course. I watch both you guys channel I also lurk also in James's patreon just to get some information But like this one as far as like monthly returns I mean, I always was I always under on the suspicion that April wasn't a great month because of tax sells off and things like that But of course, I was proven wrong just by data So April's I mean statistically is a pretty great month and then May's not too bad June yeah, July looks like August kind of falls off the cliff and then we kind of have I September looks like an awful month and then October November semesters one thing kind of move around Which kind of goes that that same stigma Which is they they say on stock in the traditional stock market selling may and go away I might just do some of this just for June But do you see anything else different as far as what this is showing us? Oh, Ben, you're muted Yeah, a lot of times in the summer the market gets kind of boring. I mean, that's what we saw last summer in in 2021 But there are occasional summers where it can be interesting if you think back to the DeFi summer of 2020 That's sort of preceded the the the Bitcoin pump that was when a lot of the a lot of all the DeFi protocols were You know freaking out and sort of front running whatever Bitcoin was about to do Yeah, on average and actually if you go to the top you can actually make it so that it excludes like the first few years because there's a lot of like Extremes like where if you see where the average calculation start change that to like 2014 or something Like once we actually have like a little bit more reasonable data It still tells a fairly similar story But it tells the story namely that it tells is like September sucks. Usually it always sucks It I mean last five years in a row, right? It just it sucks And that you know the the the other months are they tend to be I mean most months tend to be green on average If you just look at the bottom like the average return does in fact tend to be tend to be good But you can see March doesn't tend to be that great, but then this March was was fine So I was wondering cuz I was talking about that on my channel. I was seeing maybe we're front running What's actually gonna happen in March? What I thought was interesting about April and and it's interesting where we currently are is that the worst Performance that Bitcoin has ever given in April has been like negative 3% like ever in April and right now We're sitting at like negative 11% so who knows maybe maybe I mean the month's not over, right? I mean we could still we could still go back up and and not have it be so bad but I do look at some of these seasonality type things and Just sort of try to try to chase the trend and or try to understand what the trend is going to be like for instance Anytime we have a red January it typically is followed by double-digit gain February and we saw that happen again this year as well March tends to be red this March was green. So again, it's not a it's not a it's not gonna go You know about 100% but it is something I think it's something to follow And there is some seasonality there with Bitcoin and it just doesn't typically do a whole lot In the summertime. Yeah, gotcha. So then and then before I move on the next one James I got to ask you what are some indicators we need to look at as far as like for recession What are some factors we should see? I mean as you said it's a little bit of hindsight because it's already here But what should be looking at as far as to say this is a recession for sure I mean, I mean we all kind of feel already don't we but indicators Yeah, again for people to understand what a recession technically is it's two consecutive quarters of negative growth So if they say for example growth last quarter is 3% and it goes down to 2.9% or 2.6% or whatever And that happens twice in a row then the next quarter goes down to 2.4% That's considered recession just no growth. So it's not altogether catastrophic now As I mentioned before by the time the bureau has figured out the start of the recession is here and they publish it It's close to the end. That's just history speaking and Governments and politicians know in order to stay in power they need to avert this situation recession Because that's deadly for a political career or a party or whatever So we know they'll do whatever they can to engineer a soft landing up until the elections in November So that's a given now the global economy though is I mean Talk about all of the setbacks. I can't even begin you've got Yeah Russian invasion of Ukraine. You got the C-19 shutdowns again in China hardcore You got energy commodity food inflation wage inflation wage inflation is ridiculous for the last 12 consecutive months Wages have failed to keep even close pace with rising prices So the American worker and probably workers all around the world are getting hammered right now with inflation It's the silent thief and regarding the yield curve. Well that flap flip back to normal the 10 to year So I'm not too concerned about that again that can be engineered to to behave in a certain way by Buying and selling of bonds by the hit the Fed So don't don't pay too much attention to that. There is one interesting one It's an old one, but a good one And that's called the BDI which is the Baltic dry index and that's a very good leading indicator for global growth and that's fallen 83 percent since I think 2019 highs and Last time it fell 90% in this window it were preceded the 2008 great recession So and just for those who don't know the Baltic dry index is the average prices paid for transport of dry bulk materials across 20 routes, so it's it's a very small unique indicator, but it shows you economic activity very clearly gents I got to tell you Answering these questions does not give me much much confidence in the actual market. It just sounds like the data is not Not on our side, so I guess this will leave me my next question Well, actually it's gonna roll into the third one Can we on can we uncorrelate a little bit from stocks? I know James you don't think that we're we're heavily correlated to Nasdaq I personally think that every time I do a video I can kind of see it even though it's at 0.56 correlation, I understand but it just seems like Nasdaq crypto market once it's up We're also up once downs also down Can we totally uncorrelate and being an inversion and then also what can turn this crypto market around because let's be honest It's not looking too great right now So what do we got and James? I want to start with you again because you even told me Bitcoin strong. Let's hear it Too coupling and on correlation between the QQQ I mean that's been a lot of time analyzing those correlations But you can see just since the invasion bitcoins up 7% QQQ is up 2.3% So you could argue that's already decoupling So if I can turn this around I think You can't look at indices in isolation because Again going back to history Sometimes hikes Sometimes stock markets actually perform really well during rounds of multiple hikes. We saw that in 80s We saw that in 2010 to 2020 hike cycle. I think it's 2015 to 2018 So that's possible and remember these are subtle hikes if The Fed goes crazy and jacks rates completely They are going to destroy GDP growth because the servicing of the debt Goes parabolic every time they go from a very low rate up a fraction So I did a whole video on that a while back I can't remember the exact numbers, but it's a direct correlation So they can't jack the rates too much even though they say yeah, they might do six or five or seven Hikes during 2022 and I think the real issue is You know the recession was looming like we discussed the hikes are coming and the war is ongoing C19 is there. It's gonna be a cruddy choppy bumping Buckle in here. We all knew that we knew that in 2021 We didn't expect certain things to happen that did yeah, I gave the Ukraine invasion at 35% probability in December And I was off on that one But folks are stacking regardless and if we're talking stocks, there were our recession proof stocks out there and But it's gonna be a complicated year for sure now The what makes me very bullish though, and I don't want to be a hope you I'm slinger But the bond markets toast fiat is toast every is examining their reserve strategy treasury strategy everybody needs an inflation against their hedge against inflation, so I Think it's it's still not the end of the world and again even with the crappy market conditions Bitcoin has been unbelievably resilient hovering around that 39 to 40k 41k mark, which is blow me away Yeah, yeah, you know what I would totally agree with you about you know the Risks and where people gonna go can you go into stocks? Not really Can you go into to real estate? Not so much things are going up. Can you go into different macro events? No, so like if you talk about crypto and digital assets I think a lot of different big players institutions could get in if we had the the clarity as far as regulation so then Bring it home for us because if we're taking a look what can turn the crypto market around What do we look for that we could say? Okay? Yes, this is where we're looking at to go up into a different way. I Think a lot of times as simple as it is I think the answer is is is time like from a quantitative perspective Like the well you can look at like what the fair value is and everything like all that sort of stuff and like yeah Here's the dart right here's the fair value of the asset class is around 1.6 trillion According to this chart again, this is just a quantitative model It's not based on what I think it should be or what you think or what we're attached to just as you know The fair value of the asset class 1.6 trillion But yeah, like if you scroll out the the fair value out and say in middle of 2023 is gonna be three to four trillion and And out in 2024 it'll be even higher So the idea or the the general I think idea here is that we just need a bit more time and the fair value of Bitcoin Fit to all data is is 36k right now, but again, these are these are monotonically increasing functions, right? They don't go down They just go up because the idea is that it trends higher with time. So I think we just need we need time To get there. I mean, I think like the next three three months six months We still have some some choppy times ahead, but I do think we'll come out the other side I mean, so I really I mean the argument is time in a more in a more concrete thing I think we need to see everything shift back to risk on and we're not risk on right now with the Nasdaq and the S&P, you know struggling to to even get back to their prior highs It's not a risk on time and again with the dollar and a macro uptrend It doesn't leave really a lot of room for risk on assets right at the current time. So Maybe maybe one of the things that would be we could see things turn around as if if inflation I'm not talking about whatever the unofficial numbers are because we could debate that all day But whatever the official numbers are that are coming out, you know It's still going higher and so I think because they're still going higher Everyone sort of assumes well the feds going to keep being really hawkish, right? Because that's their sort of mandate is to get inflation under control And so therefore if they're gonna be hawkish people are still sort of risk off And if we're risk off the dollar is gonna keep rallying is my is my thinking on this So then what I'm looking for is I'm looking for inflation to sort of have like an inflection point or something Where not necessarily it's not gonna get to the 2% target anytime soon But if it could a g if it could at least you know stop going up so quickly and maybe come start to come back down a little bit Then then perhaps people would would be a little bit more risk on so that's something that's something a little bit more concrete I'm tracking excellent statement. Yeah, so me personally I see I see some pain Just like both of you guys do but in the long term I see some real positivity just the question is how much and I think that's that chart We just showed from Ben's website really just lays it out time in the market is more important than timing And let's switch gears just a little bit last two questions on chain data Different issues come about and as far as like on chain data How accurate is it and can it be manipulated and there's a lot of different things that are going and I've even heard these Stories where you know whales or institutional investors or people with a lot of different Bitcoin or crypto They can just break it up into a bunch different wallets and then spread it all out I personally don't think that they all do that because I think that's Some of them don't really even understand the whole process But the question is sound is on chain data accurate and how can it be manipulated then? I'll start with you just to see where you're at If you can actually go back to the website and maybe go to the on chain section I could we could talk about a couple things But I mean it in general it can be manipulated So yeah, if you go to the on chain charts go to supply scroll up a little bit and go to supply Yeah Supply yeah, and then go to like the our huddle Waves, yeah, look at something like that the our huddle waves not the ratio the actual the one above that one the waves and Then if you click on LTH at the bottom, it'll do long-term holders Uh-huh. Yeah, so just click on Under under the chart you should see the yeah, you can just click on LTH and it'll so you know These are the interesting charts because look, I mean anyone can manipulate the on chain data I can I can say send I could take like say one bitcoin and and send a tenth of a bitcoin to 10 definite addresses And it's going to theoretically show up in this chart or you know show up on some of these charts So yeah, I mean it can be manipulated But even though it can be manipulated There are still fairly clear trends, right? What do you see here with the long-term holders? When when when the percentage of the supply And this by the way, this is weighted by the realized price of bitcoin. So it's different than just the huddle waves It's weighted by the realized price What you notice is that when it gets elevated like this That's where the tourists are gone. Okay, so the tourists are gone right now Every time we have a bubble It brings in a lot of new retail investors And a certain percentage of those investors actually have the conviction to stick around because they believe in the asset class Most of them don't right most people don't they leave their tourists They come back, you know, whenever later that it that it goes parabolic again But you can look at charts like this and say, you know what even if you try to manipulate the data It still shows the same trend like when we're when the market is boring That's when people are the long-term investors are accumulating and and and do this click on the short term and click on short-term holders The sth you'll see the exact opposite the long-term stuff peaks during accumulation phases. Where do the short-term peaks? They they peak at the peak, right? Because that's where that's where, you know, the The retail investors that that's where they have interest They just come in for a quick buck or they probably are more likely losing money because they you know They're buying the bags from the people that are buying, you know during during the long bear markets or re-accumulation phases So yeah, the short answer is it can be manipulated But I do think there's a lot of a lot of charts that that show There are really clear trends in the market, right? There are clear trends in the market And I think one thing that that people should do a better job of with on-chain stuff is sometimes We like to use things that sound good to say why the price should go up But in reality when long-term investors are accumulating when you see that going up It means that the price Isn't necessarily going up, right? It's once the long-term investors once that percentage starts going down That's what you want to see because that means the price is going up So a lot of times people sort of have it reversed and how they think of it So right now is sort of the time where you have the tourists that are gone You have the long-term investors accumulating and it's pretty clear by by some of these charts And again, these are the types of investors that are going to buy bitcoin at 40k at 30k at 50k Even if it goes to 20k is the same investors are probably going to stick around for it at this point And then the short-term investors will come back again whenever we go to six figures shoe Excellent James same thing here. Can it be manipulated and how confusing is it? Well, uh, take a step back in time. I was attracted to bitcoin nearly six years ago because Of its transparency no more Behind closed or is watching the action play out on chain alive is mesmerizing And that is my fascination and of course the hard cap Very low inflation or deflation But apparently what we've noticed is in a very high inflationary environment Everybody wants to have a counter inflationary narrative And and you triggered me to talk about Akali yesterday Because you mentioned it and everybody's showcasing stuff and so it depends on the source So we are actually comparing like a whole bunch of on-chain data sources to each other And they all slice and slice stuff a little bit differently So the problem that retail investors have Is they can read an article they can look at a title or a twitter a tweet or something on some graph Graphic and as ben correctly said you can actually tweak on-chain data to fit your narrative You can find something and make it seem bullish or not But the problem is for the retail investors. There's a whole bunch of gobbledygook out there People are completing items hiding papers. There were previously published tokenomics is All over the place Stuff can be hidden obfuscated So they got token unlock dates and foundation unlocks and VC unlocks and staking awards and minting awards and max supplies and cap supplies And all this type of stuff and it confuses the hell out of people So you can just jump on one key term Play with it tweak it to your narrative and showcase it and the typical retail investor is like, oh, that sounds really good Like you see you see things where something recently says, oh, yeah, this chain had 80 000 increase in tvl But if you go from one million to 80 million or whatever It's a nothing burger But you know, everybody gets so excited About this you so everybody needs to as you used to say rob zoom out look at all of the data from multiple sources Build a model and make your own decision Yeah, and this is this is one of those things Like just what you said is when I got into crypto in 2017 and ben can attest to this You know back in those days Everything was going to the moon and it was just the greatest thing of all time and every youtuber and twitter star out there It was all the same hype whatever else and it it really pisses you off when things don't go that way And they don't tell you the truth of what really is going on That's why I like to listen to both of your shows because there is the positives and the negatives So I just want to say thanks for that and then lastly get to our last question The Miami conference, what was your biggest takeaway? so Then I want to I want to start with you because you were there you were actually there you had to meet a bunch of people So when you were there like what was the vibe like what what did you see? What are some of the things that you just really can't just get uh from from video? I think one of the biggest takeaways that I wasn't really expecting I don't know why I wasn't expecting it But there's just so many people building in the space like a lot more people than I thought And there's so many like there's so many companies like I've never even heard of before You know and and there's I mean what it shows me is that there's a lot of people that have the conviction in the space Right, they they they think it's going to ultimately prevail. It is the future Otherwise they wouldn't be building in it, right if they if they didn't think that So I met a lot of people a lot of mining companies actually like a ton of mining companies I had no idea they're this many people. I mean I I should have right but there were just so many mining companies and um And you know some of them were we're even kind of honest about about some of the stuff because some of them are like Look, we're going to be competitive until the next having and then we're kind of like we're not really competitive anymore Uh, just because like you know that like kind of the circumstances they find themselves in and some of the you know The technology like the intel chips and whatnot that are going to be coming out so um, I I found like the the overall mood Fairly fairly vibrant and a lot of people building and I was kind of surprised that I I didn't go in 2021 But I I know that there was like twice as many people here this year even though, you know The price has been relatively flat for the last year. Um, I mean it makes sense that after a parabolic rally You would have a lot of people like in 2021. Well that price has been flat for the last year and we Double I think they doubled the amount of people Yeah So I I thought that was really cool and and there were some really there were some really like unique businesses too like there was one in one one uh pitch I went to in in In one of the rooms and this guy from like Kentucky was talking about They basically they basically because we're talking about like carbon and stuff In some previous videos like the emissions and stuff. They they basically import trash to To Kentucky and then they use a process called gasification And then they they they mined bitcoin um And and it's it's a fairly green a green thing and um, they were looking for you know for for fundraising that sort of stuff to To um, it's basically help them scale quickly, you know, because it's one of those things where it's like all they really need is is trash There's plenty of that. Yeah, and and then of course the infrastructure But yeah, there were just like a lot of really a lot of really interesting companies um And there were there were so many like satellite events too that I I guess I wasn't really like I didn't know This is my first conference like my first bitcoin conference that I've been to there's so many satellite events Based around like every every like Sector that you can even imagine even outside of big like other other altcoin stuff like everything. There's just so many different Satellite events and I mean it really does show me that that crypto is slowly and slowly Getting it's like fingertips into every little part of society, you know And and then I look around the day and there's like there's like five conferences every month that someone's like You know inviting inviting me to you know say hey, you should go to this one or this one or that one I'm just like well, there's so so much stuff So I think part of it is just realizing how how big the community is and how You know the conviction that people must feel if they're all willing to if 25,000 people are all willing to descend on Miami for a week Just to you know to learn about bitcoin to talk about it and to try to build the community So I think that's pretty cool. Yeah, it's pretty cool. Yeah It makes me feel like it gives me a little sense of calm because if we would have really Regressed and there wasn't a lot of people over there But like I don't know because what you really need is a community We can see that and the crypto products that are out there The more that people come about and the more they're they're passionate about I think the more things grow So we'll figure all the rest of this stuff We'll just give us some time and then james you covered I think all three days and I even I even sent you a message. Thanks man Because I can't watch all this stuff. So what did you get out of the whole thing? That's so funny. You talk about mining. You got to mine 24 hours worth of coverage to get The 73 nuggets that's what I pulled out. I think it was about 73 because I counted them But the top the top ones that stuck in my head was Michael sailor, obviously, I'm a big fan. He said everybody's questioning the treasury strategy. That was a big takeaway. There was a guy Excuse me. I think it was brian. No Vj, I can't remember his name But he said 2 percent inflation means 50 percent destruction of a generation's net worth And I said, have you tried 21 percent? That's complete obliteration in like 15 years so Just those little numbers those little nuggets stuck in my mind and you have lin alden Who is brilliant? She said emerging markets cannot access good money And you know, when you look at the key big reserve currencies in the world They make up three or four countries. That's it. The rest of the world is stuffed They need bitcoin and I thought that was very poignant and very true And then keiser max keiser who's a funny fellow? He said bitcoin is the god particle So I used to read a lot of stuff a long time ago about the god particle If I've never heard of framed that way, I thought it was funny And and then the one of the big things was the square and tesla news during the conference not at the conference about Collaborating and mining on solar. I thought that was the biggest news of the whole conference. Yeah conference Then um, there was another few other nuggets about the fact that bitcoin will replace all commodities That have given a monetary premium like gold s and p index, etc Um, brian estes is another guy. I do remember his name He said we'll be at 90 adoption by 2029 Globally, we're at 1% now So just to think about what 90 of bitcoin adoption means when 2029 is not that far away. That's basically You know one year more than the time I've been in bitcoin And then he's another guy said I think it may have been the same fellow But the feds and the doj own one and a half percent of all bitcoin That was an eye-opener for me Another one is we know it but when you hear these words like bitcoin will be The scarcest asset on earth two years from now So if you know anything about stock to flow that is a staggering statement. Um, there was also I did numbers. I was listening to everybody's price predictions and models and stock will flow and everything else And I put together all the top 10 or 11 pricing models from bitcoin And I took an average of them all and the average came to 2.3 million dollars by 2030. I thought that was interesting That's not bad. I'll take that. Yeah, and the best was uh, peter deal come big fan of Uh met him a couple of times in silicon valley, but Super super intelligent interesting guy and he broke it all down He broke down, you know, what is money gold bitcoin ethereum value and velocity? Bringing it He bringing light to the esg fud and comparing esg to ccp all that stuff. I thought was mesmerizing as well So they're the big, you know, 73 takeaways. They'd probably be the top Eight or 10 or 12 or how many I rattled off, but they're the ones that are top of my mind right now Yeah, interesting. I mean, it's it's fascinating because like again one endowed zoom out right now the markets don't look so great And then the last thing I will say is this necessity is the mother ball invention So if we're taking a look at, uh, bitcoin mining and we've got tesla working with block How much farther can they push that technology because right now as far as like photo will take cells And uh for solar panels, you can only get so much percentage of what you actually can can grab and then put into a battery maybe they can actually Improve that technology to where it's actually viable and then we see that in electricity globally just the thought Anyhow, so those were great takes. I appreciate it gentlemen Let's go over a quick questions and get out of here and see what we got So as you were talking I kind of take a look. I peruse the comments and here's some here's some good ones first up Ricardo Alberto Sanchez. Hi me. I wonder if ben robin james consider that the world is over regulating Taxing the cryptiverse every week a new tax of regulations out But zero and I repeat zero clarification the status of crypto and I'll just take this one real quick It's amazing to me that politicians and the governments can come out and go We're not going to say this is legal tender not going to say it's right We're not going to give you clarification, but we're going to tax live in tar out of you India is up to 30 a couple of their prolet members wants to go to 50 percent the eu almost completely banned proof of work and then The things that are going on just just globally as far as the regulations the sec coming down. There's a big problem. There is A massive problem coming about and I think that what could turn this whole Crypto market around because we are asking these things. Let's just say for instance the u.s. Government comes out and goes We're going to give you guys clarity sec is so stubbornly they're going to do that But if they just say hey crypto this types of these types of crypto are a commodity This is property. This is a currency This is the security all you got to do is just give us that so institutions kind of can move that that end I think it'll be a great thing. So what do you think about? Politicians and regulations screwing up too bad and then making it a problem james since you're up. I'll let you go Oh, um, I think A little bit of regulations definitely needed. There's so many scams out there. So many slow-motion rug pulls So much ponzinomics is just horrifying gary gansler has has 200 years of work ahead of him If you look at the time it takes to settle the xrp stuff multiply that by But 18 000 cryptos It'll never get to the end of it. So Yeah, some some hard regulation is definitely required and that will bring in more money which will inflate all prices It's a good thing without regulation. There is no space So that's my take on that in terms of taxing the tariff of it I know india has been all over the place for the last year and a half up down left right Every couple of weeks. So, you know, I think it's it's an issue and then you've got State laws in the u.s. Trying to forward some bills that are just ridiculous So we'll see what happens but a little bit of regulation be okay And I think we have a new generation of politicians coming through which see the light So fingers crossed I can see that and then that would lead me to ben and ben before I have you ask the question Tnd tesla says ben has amazing graphs. He does have amazing graphs So go ahead take a look in the description. You can find all those graphs app. Indicryptoverse. So ben the question is What do you think regulation isn't necessary? Yeah And how is that? Yeah, I mean, I think it is necessary because I see so many a lot of people are a lot I think a lot of the larger money is still somewhat skeptical with some of the Some of them of like what's going to happen when there is regulation. What are they going to be? deemed as how do they how do they navigate that and if you think about it from like a From the perspective of of the fact that you know the from the because bitcoins market cap continues to sort of We you know sort of go higher and higher and higher with time We need we need big money to you know to keep coming in to support our growth And I I feel like in order to really get that big money you need a bit more clarification on the asset class We can't you know be fine one day and then two weeks later. We're all of a sudden worried about, you know you know the united states basically Making it so that every proof-of-stake protocol out there is untenable for people because you're now all of a sudden required to All of your delegators or something like we don't know we don't know the answer to all this stuff right now and and I do think we need some type of You know clarification on on How are they going to be treated? You know, um, you don't have to constantly worry about this stuff, you know with some other stuff So it would be nice to get to get some type of regulation I just hope they get it right because certainly they could do something wrong Like I mean imagine if they had gotten it wrong with the internet. I mean that would have set us back So much, you know, but they didn't they I don't I think they did a fairly decent job I mean, I was I was a kid back then so I wasn't really following it that closely Except maybe like instant messaging my friends um, but uh, yeah, I think regulation is is Probably a good thing for you know for a lot of the larger money to come into the space But it's funny because it also sort of goes It sort of goes against a lot of what people want and that's just like, you know, keep everything Super unregulated. It's also funny too because I there's even spent some like big figures that say they they don't want regulation And then the minute they get rugged. Oh now they want regulation, you know So it's like, what do you want? Do you want it to be unregulated and and you know, like the wild west or do you? Or do you you know, do you want you want more regulation? I do think some regulation would be good so that we we don't have to constantly live in fear of of what what are they going to do? Yeah, exactly. And then just I mean to to speak to your point. Yes, everybody wants rate No one wants regulation until they need it right the same thing with like health insurance So it's the same thing with the internet back in the day and law 230 came about they said hey We're not going to hold the internet provider or the website Liable for something that is said on your website which opened everything up because they say well We're not going to be responsible. It's the same thing for these institutions. They don't have this regulation and clarity It all goes out the window so that part Concludes that question the last one or a couple last ones I just want to get you guys opinion on this one Celsius and there was an AMA that just came about and they didn't say anything. I didn't watch the AMA so I cannot Verify this but it would seem to me that that Celsius would talk about the fact that in America US this only Is viable for us non accredited investors You will not receive any yield any tokens that you put in Celsius past today April 15th So if you're not accredited meaning you don't make 200 300 thousand dollars per year or you don't have five million dollars as far as your corporation You are an a what what they deem fit as a non Accredited investor meaning you can go gamble your life savings away in a casino. That's fine But don't you dare put it into a new technology because you're not smart enough. That's essentially what they're saying I hate to say it like that, but it's really what it is So James, what do you think about what's going on? Did they get it right and what do you think Celsius goes from here? Well, very quickly. There's a lot of stuff going on behind closed doors with the sec that we don't know about But obviously it's all about protecting the investors and accredited investors can risk all the money they want sec Don't care about those guys so they're sorry about that background noise irrigation system um but Okay, Ben what do you got? Yeah, I mean, I I think yeah, there's there's probably a lot of stuff going behind the scenes that we don't really know about um, and and so I my guess is that it's not My guess is it's not necessarily sells something Celsius wants to do. You know, they're probably feeling compelled to do uh because of of the Garbage regulations that they have to deal with the United States I mean like look at it's not just Celsius that like even a lot of larger platforms They split up into like think about like Binance now they have Binance and they have Binance us Um, there's just there's just so much stuff and you know, if you're one of these large, you know Companies that operate worldwide You have basically everyone else And then you have the united states that has like all these ridiculous things that you have to jump through all these hurdles With so I don't really blame Celsius for it. I think that no, it's not something they can control um, they're just trying to trying to continue operating as a business and in in like with the in line in the line of law Um, so yeah, we just have to we just have to keep hoping that that The government can can figure things out before literally every single cryptocurrency company goes overseas Exactly what what people also don't realize is this kind of ties into the previous question about regulation is if The entities don't follow the law closely or even go beyond what the law is requiring They could get shut down entirely and believe me What they're being forced to do is not what alex wants. He wants to give everybody their yield Right now. He's got a little loophole to just just to support accredited investors. So everybody don't blame Celsius Don't blame nexo. Don't blame block five. Don't blame coinbase for wanting to set up a yield product And I'm gonna shut that down out of the gate. It's not them It's the regulators and the regulators still trying to get wrap their heads around this whole space Yeah, nobody. Yeah, no, they don't want to do that and that's just that's just really how it goes Do they you know Celsius block file those guys? They don't want to go and tussle with the sec and go through an expensive litigation to work Be nothing so of course they have to do that and then this will lead me to my last one Just a general question if bitcoin goes down by 50 to 60% do all the alt coins go down by 80 90% or more James, what do you got? Well, if bitcoin goes to 20k um It's theoretically possible, but it's a 1 chance of it happening maybe 2% By my math considering who is holding it who is buying it who is aggregating it just imagine for a second You've got you're a big money center bank or you're a big hedge fund or whatever else And you see this thing going down near 30 grand you're going to swoop in like we saw this happening Where we thought we were going to 32k at the invasion we only hit 35k And people are there waiting in the wings to grab this stuff up cheap So we're not going down to 20k so forget all the stuff you Watch on videos on youtube and all this fear mongering ignore that But if bitcoin does fall by 60 percent Yes, alts could fall by 80 to 90 percent you're dead right there But there are quality alts that are actually deviating from alts in the space too Those that have very good value propositions Out there so they they will survive them fair a lot better and the correlation between say bitcoin ethereum right now is 0.91 That means if bitcoin falls 50 percent ethereum will fall maybe 55 percent so it's very tight I can deal with that seems like a safe one and ben last question. What do you got? Yeah, I mean if bitcoin falls 50 alts are going to be I mean they won't I don't think many I mean The the the main alts are probably not going to fall 90 percent from where they currently are You know, but they might fall 80 90 percent from whatever their highs were back in You know, whenever they they put in their highs um Yeah, if you look at and the reason that is is because they alts do well Until until bitcoin sort of loses confidence So like if bitcoin were to go to 20k and like, you know, that's sort of like the the bubble is being fully deflated you know like the the Like I sort of described it earlier like if you think about like a material under under some type of tension and and the asset class like has this tension right now And if if that is released then alts coins are the ones that suffer the most and that's why Being bitcoin heavy just to protect your downside Isn't isn't necessarily a bad thing. So yeah, I mean if bitcoin drops 50 percent You could easily see you could easily see alt coins drop more than bitcoin You would likely see alt coins drop more than bitcoin So I think the question is I mean if you want to if you want to like a practical thing to look for um Because the dominance was also around the same, you know around the same level back in 2018 What I would be looking for right now to to be with regards to alt coins is if bitcoin puts in a lower low So technically speaking bitcoin's been putting in higher lows, right? I mean being technically correct. That's the best way to be correct, right? So it's been putting in higher lows and and so alt coins are still relatively strong so far, right? I mean, they're they're not I mean, some are even putting a new all-time highs, right? Luna just put in a new all-time high, you know fairly recently so But I think the the thing to look for That would be a warning sign is if bitcoin puts in a lower low So if you think like it it did like 33k then 34k if we go back down to like 31k I imagine some alt bitcoin valuations would would bleed. I'm not saying that a second we go down 90% But that would be that would be something to to look for In terms of the strength of the aqua market because yeah if bitcoin drops 50% and goes to 20k Then you you would expect off alt bitcoin pairs to bleed You would also expect alt ether pairs To bleed as well And you would also expect ether bitcoin to drop too Okay, yeah, I can see that so gentlemen again Thanks so much for the show. We appreciate it and also Just so everybody knows if we're taking a look if you're looking for Ben's channel Which I don't know if you wouldn't be spreading already or james's channel right there on the description There's james channel ben's channel james is patreon and ben's Into the cryptiverse site where you can take a look at all those awesome charts. So that is it for today So jens, thanks so much for being on the show. I appreciate it and we'll see you on the next one I appreciate you guys. Thank you audience as well