 It's not going to be the case, do I need to trade? It's going to be the case of do I want to trade? And that's the greatest gift that you could give yourself that's sitting out in the market until the game plan plays out. Welcome to Access a Trader, the number one community for those who are committed to taking control of their trading in order to achieve success, profitability, and longevity. Thank you for joining us. Here's Dan Shapiro to help you find your edge, master your process, and own your future. Hey, guys. Good evening, everybody. Welcome to another edition of the AccessaTrader.com that the wrap-up show, Happy Weekend, everybody. Hope everybody is doing well. So some pretty dynamics have changed in the market for the last week and a half or so. Started out with distribution. You've been watching this broadcast just in the last couple of weeks. You saw that there was a really, really ugly control of where the market sentiment was going to go next. And that was called distribution. It lasted about four days. And this is kind of the area right over here. The most important part was we knew that distribution was only going to last about a week, right? About four or five days, just because somebody has to take control. Either buyers were going to clean up supply and take the market back higher. Or the sellers were eventually going to start taking down ranges and take the market lower. And that's what we were just kind of waiting for. And the sellers prevailed. They did a very, very good job. Note that beta and mega cap technology names have been weak for months and months and months. It wasn't really a big surprise that the sellers took over control of sentiment. But it was very, very surprising how equally easily they took over control. Because again, you had this rabid bull market going for a very, very long time. Never even came close. The last time we were anywhere close to the 50-day moving average was this level right over here. And this is in October of 2020. So the idea that the bulls, mind you, were very, very weak, not really participating for the last couple of months. And you had just sprinkles and the video here, a tussle there. For the most part, they were very, very weak. It was incredibly impressive from the sell side point of view how easily they got to the 50-day moving average, got below the 50-day moving average, and did that within a three, four-day period. The bulls did an excellent job around Tuesday, right? Reclaiming the 50-day moving average and doing a debt-cab balance, which was kind of the point of technical analysis, stocks going from supply to supply. And most important, this is kind of where we're going to segue into what I think is going to happen next and kind of where we are now. If you notice here, and sometimes I always tell the newer trader that the best way to start your journey for technical analysis is just the eyeball test. Sometimes you could just recognize, pick little things off the chart that you won't realize it years later, but you're starting to build a kind of a foundation of being a technical trader. And in my opinion, that's what it's all about. And you can see here, just with your naked eye, every single time we rallied back to the five-day moving average, we got rejected, got rejected, got rejected, got rejected, got rejected. This is the debt-cab balance after the reclaiming the 50-day moving average. And Friday, we saw a pretty decent gap up. If you guys remember Thursday's video, I was pretty sell-bias. I mean, I don't think there was any other way to describe it. I joked around and said 600% sell-bias, 2,000% sell-bias. I was sell-bias. There was nothing there in the market that I looked at and said, look, I have to be long, considering how many really good, juicy, short setups we saw. And the only thing, the only curveball from Thursday night's video into Friday was, well, can we actually, for the love of God, get a continuation on possible technical damage? And we got our answer. We got the gap up in the market in the morning. And the one thing that I keep on reiterating, especially to newer traders, we do our homework the night before to make sure we're trading or at least thinking in the position of strength the next day. So for example, if you have an opinion and it's backed by technical analysis, it's your job to letting the game plan, to let the process work out. And for all you guys who don't know if you're joining us for the first time, I trade only six 60-minute candles throughout the whole day. That's literally my whole day. I don't trade the one-minute channel. It doesn't make a difference to me on any other timeframe. The daily chart is obviously the most important, right? That shows you macro, the 60-minute that I used to gather an entry once the daily chart confirmed. And the only thing I use in the PS60 theory, I do use the five-minute chart just to kind of see if there's any more additional supply or demand depending on which side of the market. But the most important part is I always let the market tell me I'm wrong. And that was the only thing that we talked about Thursday that it really didn't make a difference. I was sell bias, yes. I had a game plan to the downside, absolutely. Now the question is, was the market going to make me, make me whole, right? Again, making right, that's social media. Nobody cares about being right. It's all about getting a game plan together and seeing it played out. So the market did us an incredible favor, really, really big favor on Friday. They gapped up a lot of names. Baidu, Alibaba, Tesla, right? A lot of names gapped up. And the one thing, and again, we'll go over the pivots in a little bit. But the one thing that I did know going into today's session, well, excuse me, Friday's session was that Thursday we had our first close, right? Our literally our first close below the 50-day moving average. That was the first time since all the way back in October. And that's a big thing. And we started morning strategy on Friday morning and the futures are up. And the first thing I kept on reiterating over and over again, there is no way in hell that I'm buying stock on the first day that they close the queues below the 50-day moving average since October. I don't care if Jesus was going to tap me on the shoulder and said, Dan, you have to do this. Sorry, Jesus, not today. And the most important part is I wanted to be proven wrong. Let the bulls prove me wrong. Let the bulls take reclaim of supply. Let the price action tell me that I should start switching gears and start concentrating on the long side. And that's the most important part was I didn't cave in because the options, excuse me, the futures market dictated a completely different open that I wanted. We stayed patient and we got one of the more aggressive days that I can remember in a very, very long time. And the greatest part about what Friday played out, usually when you see beta collapse or beta rally, they rally at the same time and they collapse at the same time. They're a tribe, right? All these stocks, the Tesla's, Amazon's, Facebook, Apple's of the world, they usually go in tandem. And what was great about Friday's session was they literally went down one at a time. Monster move on Baidu that I caught. Really good move on Alibaba that I caught. Tesla really good dump. And again, if you've been watching this broadcast, I've been sell buys Tesla and all these pivots ever since that 800 in confirmation, 780. So what's great about what we're doing as traders, and again, I don't care about how great your level of thinking is. If you don't let price action tell you that you are wrong, you're going to be always bias on your game plan, bias into one side of the market. And unfortunately, a lot of us just naturally, it's kind of built in our DNA. We are so sometimes blinded to the market that we want. We don't realize that, well, this is the market that we have and we start trading outside of our comfort zone. And the longer you get in this game, remember, year 10, I was a better trader than year five. Year 15, I was a better trader than year 10. Year 21, I'm a better trader than year 15. So everything that everybody's going through, right? When your first two, three years of making decisions emotionally, not letting things play out, screwing up trades, not getting out of stops, not putting in stops at all, not realizing what your measure potential is, being afraid to actually put in order, everything goes away in time. Remember that, everything is going to be easier in time. Risking money, managing a trade, staying out of the market, these are things that are going to get better in time. So if you look at it logically, if you're a brand new parent, right, I'm a much better parent than I am year almost 14 than I was year one. So why is trading anywhere different? And if you definitely switched your bias on any given day, just because the futures market dictated a different open that you wanted, right? That you needed, it's a problem, yes. And you're going to have a lot of regrets going down the line, but I give you my word, if you do extend your shelf life, eventually you are going to be so calm, you're going to be so methodical in your approach that it's not going to be the case, do I need to trade? It's going to be the case of do I want to trade? And that's the greatest gift that you could give yourself that's sitting out in the market until your game plan plays out. Luckily for us, it played out within the first 15 minutes of the day, and it worked out incredibly, incredibly aggressive. Let's talk about the pivots right from the word go. And we'll talk about the macro of view of the market, what I think is going to happen next, going into next week. So Tesla, if you can see it, these are all sells. The only one buy, the only one setup I had to buy, just in case, again, we always played devil's advocate was Netflix that obviously never confirmed. So Tesla on watch, green to red, Tesla gapped up like 15 points for experienced trader. No, this is not a pivot, it needs to confirm. But again, any build under 690 should go lower. So not only the Tesla give up a game, its gains, it went green to red very, very quickly. It confirmed that 670 level, right? Took out that 670 level and stock went all the way down to the 650s, really good trade. I was very happy with the trade continuation, obviously from that 800 break, from that 780 break, from that 710 confirmation and on and on and on. And now we're starting to approach very, very aggressive levels. And this is going to be predicated if the market continues to be weaker. So again, you have a potential for more continuation, but now you have another definitive line in the sand from last week's low. So Tesla was really, really good. I know a lot of you guys are still holding it overnight. On the video, I also liked green to red and never got there, which I was actually very surprised considering they didn't have the greatest quarter. Facebook didn't get there either, but I love Facebook. Okay, if this mark, I don't even love Facebook, if this market does confirm last week's levels, we'll talk about that in a second. Guys, look at how many times, and I kind of tweeted about this this morning, the longer a stock keeps on touching the same support over and over and over again, once it confirms it can be very, very violent. If you look at Facebook setup going into this week, you can see one, two, three, four, almost five times bouncing off the same level. If this thing starts giving up this bottom range here, then we go all the way down to the lows of January 14, and any close below the January 14 lows, look at me, there's a lot of room down. So it didn't trigger on Friday, but I like it. Apple didn't trigger either, but I still like it. Look at Apple's chart going into this week, right? Look at this chart as well, look at Apple, right? Again, look at this thing. It hit the 50 day moving average on Thursday. It didn't quite get there, right? Rejected, remember we talked about the five day moving average? It keeps on getting rejected, right? Rejected, rejected, rejected, rejected. If Apple starts confirming, okay? If Apple starts confirming down this whole area here, you're going to see a move back to this week's, last week's lows and any close below 118, this thing has a lot of room down as well. Again, look at the options market. They're betting really, really aggressively that there's gonna be a lower prices going on. Roku didn't confirm either, but look at Roku's chart, look at Roku's chart setting up for this week, okay? Look at Roku's chart. Again, just got rejected off the 50 day moving average. If the bottom of the range here falls, and this, you can see it, you can see it in your own naked eyes, there's lower highs being put in ever since the gap down from earnings. You have three consecutive, four consecutive days of lower highs and almost lower lows. If it starts taking down this channel, there's a lot of room down as well. So you can see how much potential there is to the downside this week, and we'll talk about the specific numbers. Amazon didn't trigger either, Netflix didn't trigger either to the upside, and here's where we started getting good. So I caught Tesla, Tesla was actually my third trade of the day, but this one started off the whole day, and here's another example of when stocks get tired, right? When they tired and they start testing levels, the same levels over and over and over again, eventually when it breaks down, they're gonna break down very aggressively. This was my first trade of the day. 288 has been tested three times. If it builds below, it can flush. Here was Baidu, right? You can see the three levels are tested, right? Look at the levels here. 288, 288, 288, it finally broke 288. My lowest cover, my lowest cover was 270, geez, 271, 272, but a really, really aggressive move. I mean, really, really aggressive move. And now, you know, this thing starts going sideways and starts confirming action. Again, if you believe in the theory, stocks go from supply to supply and demand to demand. Look at what the next room is. So there's a lot of room down still in Baidu, but that's the theory. Look how many times it's tested the same level, kind of the same thing as Facebook. Tested it three times. On the fourth try, it finally fell through. So that was really good as well. That actually started off the whole day. So that was beautiful. Alibaba was my next trade. 240 for builds below can flush. Here was Alibaba, you know, followed by the downs, right? So here's the 240, right? Here was the 240 that Valid violated. The previous days low took out this linear regression line. It took out 240, closed right at the lows. My lowest cover was 238, so I was really, really happy with the week, but Friday was really aggressive. I was incredibly, incredibly pleased, not only did the game plan work, but how aggressive it was when things started really, really violating the previous channel. And that's kind of where I'm really liking what I'm seeing going into this week. Now granted, again, the market needs to confirm the channels that I'm looking for this week, but how can you not at least be sell bias on the surface? Of course, anything can happen. It's the same thing we talked about from Thursday's video into Friday. Anything can happen, right? You know, it was a what, what is it? $1.9 trillion stimulus bill. Gotta prove this, gotta prove that I believe this week or yesterday, whatever the case might be. Who knows? Maybe that gaps up the market and there's a gap and go. But I think everything on the surface is pointing that there is an exhaustion from the buyers. Even the smaller names that had big, big runs three, four weeks ago, they're going up three for a thousand percent. If you saw what was going on this week, a lot of names popped up 30, 40% pre-market and started going red. So there is a very, very aggressive shift in sentiment. You can see it. Technical analysis is definitely supporting the theory but more important, all gap ups are being sold. So Baidu was amazing. Baba was really good. Tesla, I caught really, really nice as well. So they were really, really good. But I mean, that's all I could say. It was just pretty darn cool. It was just really, really cool. What's great, what would happen again on Friday was the game plan worked, and I said that three times already, the game plan worked, but I liked the way they led us into these trades one at a time instead of flushing everything at the same time. So when you look at the big picture this week, and this is what the big picture is, you could see now three times in a row the queues held this bottom range. Everybody see that, right? One, two, three. This is exactly the same price. If this area starts getting hit, and you could see, again, four days of lower highs rejected off to five day, if this area gets confirmed, then we go all the way down to the 305 area. Again, why is 305 important? If you've been watching this broadcast for a long time, that's where this market keeps on and probably will defend it the first time around. But this is where the market really, really has heavy support in the mega cap technology names and any close, again, assuming this gets violated, any close below 305, then we start really getting aggressive to the downside. If you look at all the other indexes, you can see Friday the Dow Jones first time tested the 50 day moving average since January, right? So that's a big deal. If the diamonds start confirming down, look how much room you have. You have the spies, same thing. First close, first test of the 50 day moving average you can see here, it held it and it bounced. So that's the key for the bulls. The bulls need to stay above this 380 level on the spies if they don't. Then there's another six, seven points down if this level gets confirmed. So we kind of know where we are. And if you do your research this weekend and you go through a lot of charts, there's a lot of really good short setups. Will they confirm this week? Who knows, right? Again, I'm not guessing. I have a game plan the same way I had my game plan on Thursday going into Friday session. Now we just need the price action to give us that green light. Again, we don't anticipate, we're not guessing, okay? We're not forecasting, let the price action tell us the next move possible. And if you look at what the market did this week was pretty aggressive here. You had a 5% move on the NASDAQ, right? That's kind of big. You had 2.5% on the SPX and you had about a little less than 2% decline on the Dow Jones. And the one group that was incredibly strong leading the market up, at least the Dow was the brokers, right? And they had their exhaustion moves, Citibank as well, Bank of America as well, JP Morgan as well. So you have to look at if the leadership is getting tired and starting to get sold. And the leadership from the technology names have been weak three, four days in a row. The most important part now, if you are holding onto inventory, if you are a position or a swing trader, whatever you want to call it, you have to respect the next levels. And these are what the next levels are. You have 311, 311 on the queues. This is it. There is no room for an argument with somebody on social media. Don't waste your breath. This is it. This is the line in the sand. If the queues close anywhere below 311, we're going down to 305. Any close will 305, it's going to get really, really ugly, incredibly fast. So those are the levels. For the market to get good again, released good from the bullish point of view, 311 to the downside, the bulls need to reclaim 319. Why is 319 important? That is the cross between the 50 day moving average, which is a crazy aggressive, very, very important supply zone right now, and the five day moving average, which for me is the shortest period of sentiment. So if both of those keep on getting rejected and that's exactly what happened on Friday, that's kind of a big area to reclaim. So you have 319 to the upside, 311 to the downside. That's it. Everything else in between doesn't make a difference from the macro point of view. You can argue with Joe Blow from easytrading.com till your face is blue in the sand. The point is price action matters. Our opinions mean nothing, mean less than nothing. We're all idiots. Let the market dictate. If you are carrying inventory, please respect those levels because it's a lot easier. It's a lot easier to digest information to be trapped underneath supply with very, very little room to get out. So going through this week, again, I'm just so biased. I really am. It's gonna take a lot for me to be not to Facebook I like going into this week. Again, it has to confirm this whole channel. It might never confirm this channel, but I like it. That's probably, it's one of my better plays that I like. I like Apple, if it starts breaking down this 50 day moving average. I like CRM, had this really nasty bar on earnings. And at the same time, it confirmed this whole daily channel. So if it starts breaking down, then you have to see how much room you have. So CRM looks good. Even IBM that I really wouldn't look at, but again, you know, gap down on earnings and this whole channel here is ready to confirm. Like what do you think is gonna happen to a stock that keeps on missing their earnings over and over again? If all the indexes get confirmed, this will be one of the heaviest one hits. So I'm going to watch IBM. It's not one of the names I usually look at, but you know, it's just common sense. Whatever it doesn't go up must go down. And if they already keep on reporting crappy earnings, this will be the one has a lot of room to the downside as well. So, you know, hopefully everybody's doing well. You know, this is the time that, you know, hopefully that everybody put their ducks in a row for 2020, the start of 2021, the market just doesn't go up all the time. I know it seems that way. And it's been like that for the last four and a half years, but I can tell you with a lot of experience, and I started at the end of 98, the start of 1999, there's a lot of pockets of weakness and there's a lot of pockets of aggression. And if you don't respect levels or trade on both sides of the market, you're going to have a very, very tough time. Again, I'm not trying to, you know, put fear in your heart to make you sleep, you know, less overnight. And I'm not fear marketing. There's nothing to do. This is just reality. Stocks go up, stocks go down. And I give you my word, your favorite stock that looked fantastic in 19 and 2020, and the start of 2021, if it starts confirming to the downside, I give you my word, it's not going to be the stock that's going to survive this. So please get your education down, build your foundation, put in a lot of work this weekend, look at a lot of charts, you'll see there's a lot of opportunity going into a Monday and Tuesday session. You know, the only question is, will they confirm? Guys, God bless, have a great, great weekend, and I'll see a lot of you guys soon. Take care, guys.