 The next speaker would have been Telea Mayo, but she has a family situation, so Jean Camelo is so kind to give the presentation for her. So Jean is from the University of Central Florida and the presentation is going to be about climate change impact on hurricane storm search risk. And with that, Jean, if you could start sharing your screen that would be great and the floor is yours. So hi everyone, my name is Jean Camelo. I'm presenting in behalf of my advisor and Dr. Telea Mayo. So we are basically interested in the coastal region because it is a dynamic area where there is a lot of intersection between physical processes and it is where water, land, and the built environment interact with each other. So a good example for that is Hawaii. Here is a picture and you can see that the coast is lined with both the national environment where you have the dunes and some greenery combined with the built environment such as these hotels right here. And the coastal region is also home to more than 40% of the population of the United States and it's only expected to grow as you have more and more people moving towards the coast. And this region is at an increasing risk for natural hazards such as floods and coastal erosion. So one of the naturally occurring coastal hazards in this area is storm surge and hurricane storm surge is an abnormal rise of water generated by strong winds and low pressure. So you have winds that are blowing over the water and they tend to pile up and as it reaches towards the shore it gets pushed up even higher. Although the low pressure coming from the center of the hurricane can also raise the water level, its contribution isn't nearly as much as the wind. So what we know as storm tide is basically just storm surge and the astronomical tides together. And when surge happens during high tide for example, you have like this like interaction where in surge and tides because they're able to amplify the surge heights as well. So here are some of the parameters that can affect the formation of storm surge and we are concerned with the hurricane properties. So in this study we focused on this hurricane parameters and what is generally accepted that can contribute to having a higher surge would be having a low central pressure, having a large size or radius and if you have a slower moving storms or having just slow forward or transition speed and you have this high wind speeds or just very intense storms and all in all like this can cause higher storm surge heights itself. So we are concerned because we wanted to study how this hurricanes would look like in a changing climate and we all know that climate change will have significant impacts in the coastal areas as well. Especially we've seen this from the very active hurricane season last year and we really think this is concerning. So there are different studies on how climate change will have an effect on hurricanes in the future but for storm surge concern we keep an eye on projections that says that there will be a shift towards stronger storms meaning you have higher wind intensity and lower pressure. Studies that says there's going to be an increase of radius and size or if you have just a slowing down or the slowing down of transition speed of hurricanes itself. So our study picks up from the results of an earlier work by one of our colleagues Ethan Gutman in 2018 where they basically simulated hurricanes from the years 2000 to 2013 in the present condition by forcing the WARF model with boundary conditions coming from the era entry model as well. So this same process is repeated again but in order to introduce the pseudo global warming scenario they impose the high emissions signals or the RCP 8.5 at the boundary. This warf model is actually very good because it is about four kilometers grid spacing and from this model they were able to recreate 22 storms that were present in both the present and the future scenario. So one caveat though is that the tracks of this warf model and the current storms that are in the herd that are the best track from the national hurricane centers do not really follow exactly the same path but they're very close and some of the hurricane properties in the warf simulations differ slightly as well. However for our purposes for storm search modeling we will take this warf storms and we will be comparing them to each other with the present and the future states to see how it affects the generation of storm search. For the storm search modeling we were able to successfully simulate 21 out of the 22 storms. So in order for us to be able to simulate storm search using a numerical model we use this model called ADSIRC or the advanced circulation model. It's a full physics model that uses the finite element method to solve the generalized wave continuity equation and the advantage of using ADSIRC is it has unstructured meshes and it allows you to have finer resolutions in the areas of concern like the coastline for example and you have larger elements in the deeper ocean and this helps out with the speed of computation as well. ADSIRC is able to take in various metrological forcing so for our study we use outputs from the warf model and it can be coupled with the wave model such as swan as well. So for this study instead of comparing the results of the search models to tidal gauges we just we look at certain heights in in different areas. What we did is we looked at or we used two different metrics. The first one is the inundation area which tells you which places in the coastal regions which were usually dry land but are now considered wet after being inundated with storm search and the second metrics that we use is the inundation volume which basically is the amount of water that is being pushed through the shore due to storm search. So what we did is we take the areas which is coming from the metrics before the inundation area and multiply the storm surge heights. So the mesh that we use for the ADSIRC model is called the HSOFS mesh or the hurricane surge on-demand forecast system. It is a very good model because it uses 1.8 million vertices which is those are the nodes where you get the the surge heights from and it's about 3.6 triangle elements and some of these elements actually extend over land which is what we wanted because we're concerned about inundation. So this is the HSOFS domain and as you can see it covers the Atlantic ocean and the Gulf of Mexico. This is how deep the ocean water is and this green part right here so you have like Florida the Gulf states so this green part would be the over land coverage for the domain itself. So just to show you the results of the simulation that we did so this is Hurricane Ike so above is the present scenario and at the bottom is where the climate change signal was introduced in the model. So at first glance it doesn't seem like there's much of a difference between the present and the future scenario but you'd see that for Hurricane Ike it's much more deeper red which means that you have higher storm surges for the future scenario. So if you look at the differences between the the future and the present right here on the right you'd see it's a lot more red which means that we're expecting that a storm such as Hurricane Ike in the future with this climate change signal would result in higher storm surges which is about 25 centimeters to more than one meter. In terms of changes in hurricane parameters future Hurricane Ike saw that there's an increase in wind intensity and increase in radius a slowing down of translation speed and a lower lowering of central pressure. So another example of a simulation we did is Hurricane Isaac so Hurricane Isaac made landfall in the Gulf area in 2012 and again the above one is the present simulation and the bottom would be the future so in the present simulation you'd see that a lot of the high waters are found in the western part of Florida which is just above Tampa Bay but if you look at the future scenario like this is already gone and some of the high waters were actually located south southwest Florida and some of them are here in Louisiana and Texas and this is clearly shown in the differences between the present and the future will compared to hurricane Ike here you'd see there's actually a displacement of water so this is where the water used to be and now like you can find it here in a different area. So in terms of changes in hurricane properties hurricane Isaac in the future saw that there is also an increase in wind speed an increase in radius an increase in translation speed and a lowering of pressure however we think there's other factors that might have contributed to the displacement of water in this situation. So when we looked at the overall changes so I have here I have the maximum storage storm surges so all of the 21 storms we got the maximum of them it looks like there's different there's several places that she can see red which is which means that you have storm surges that are higher than four meters and in the future what we found out is because of this warming conditions we can expect that there's a general increase in storm surge heights in the future we also saw increase in both inundation volume in area and there's just higher surges in more concentrated area especially in the states of Texas Louisiana and Mississippi some parts of the Florida the Gulf area some parts in the Carolinas and New Jersey as well. So we also tried to look at the hurricane properties and how they change with climate and how it affects the inundation so what I have here is a graphic where we rearrange the storms in in terms of increasing inundation volume so for all of the simulations we did Hurricane Ike had the greatest inundation volume for both present and the future and the way this graphic is arranged is the darker bands show you hurricane properties that contribute to higher storm surge so you'd see for wind intensity you are expecting storms that have this darker blue bands to it looks like we lost Jean unless I lost all of you guys nope I think it's her connection hopefully it comes back in a second yeah let's let's give it a few seconds maybe at the bottom hell over nope she's gone other shoes Jean sorry I think we lost you there for the last 30 45 seconds or something you were mentioning Hurricane Ike had the the largest impact currently as well as in the future scenarios and that's where we lost you oh thank you would you be able to pick it up from there um yes um are you able to see it now yep yes thank you um okay so sorry about that so again um so this rainbow graphics that we have basically um what we did is we rearranged the storms from the least to the most inundation volume so for for both the present and the future scenario we actually have hurricane Ike that have the most inundation volume so the way this is arranged is the darker bands represent the hurricane properties that we think contributes more to to more inundation volume so the darker blue for wind intensity you get a darker orange for radius since slowing down translation speed contributes more so we flipped it also pressure was flip um so we usually expect that having a higher wind intensity would contribute to more inundation volume or more storm surge however what we saw is you have storms that have darker color bands than Ike like for example we have Irene and Ophelia right here um but they are not at the I guess like at the bottom which means like they have more contribution to uh sorry storm surge inundation volume so what we saw is if you look at this last five storms that have the higher inundation volume we don't see really any significant pattern or this combinations of hurricane properties that would possibly have a positive effect to storm surge volume itself so what we did is we take this percent change to sort of like uh I guess like normalize the hurricane properties versus the hurricane volumes and what we see was quite interesting and here we have again the properties that are known to increase surge which is in red so um having an increase in wind speed an increase in radius um a slowing down of translation speed and um a decrease pressure would be in red so what we see here is Ike had the largest volume in present in the future climate however the change between those two is just about 32 percent which is fairly small compared to um Francis for example which saw the largest change in inundation volume which is about 161 percent change however if you compare um the properties between Francis and Ike for example they're they're very different so Ike saw an increase in wind speed an increase in radius a slowing down translation speed and a lowering of pressure however the largest change which is Francis had a decrease in wind speed a decrease in um in radius um an increase uh sorry a decrease in translation speed and a decrease in pressure which is very different so that's that's what we saw with all of this storms when we looked at um 21 storms as a whole so just to recap what we've seen here is we've seen an increase in both inundation volume and area over the 21st century and we think this is increasingly important because um we are actually expecting higher surges in more concentrated areas and it would have significant impacts in the built environment um I would also like to point out that these simulations do not have sea level rise yet and we think that if you add these signals it may further exacerbate these problems as well and one of the surprising things that we saw in this um study is we saw that the changes in inundation or the magnitudes of storm surge is not easily predictable by a single hurricane characteristics and even if you use do you look at them as a whole if you take them all together it's so difficult to predict the outcomes without doing the actual numerical simulations itself and um if you are interested if you want more information and details about the study um we have a paper that's out now and I have this like QR code for your convenience thank you wonderful Jean that was a very nice presentation and it's close to my heart because I'm I'm really fascinated by uh by hazards natural hazards so so very cool thank you thank you um so we have uh let's say a couple of minutes for some questions and again if you under reactions there is a raised hand if you could use that that would be great but you can also pass your question in the chat and I give it a minute or something or a few seconds to see if there are any questions coming in and while waiting maybe um we had yesterday we had a talk uh from our area and he talked about beach supplation and how different that can be between various communities of wealth and I imagine that those beach supplation can change over time as well and I'm just wondering how this will you know beach nourishment nourishment basically right that that's um that will impact storm surge as well and if those policies are changing over time and I'm just wondering if you're planning for future scenarios to take some of those human controls into account where you have a you know pure natural system versus um beach nourishment uh very sparse versus you know lots of nourishment going on are you are you guys thinking in that direction or are you focusing more on uh on the changes in in natural parameters um that's actually a very good question and we haven't really looked at that um we were more I guess like for this study um part of this actually is they also looked at precipitation so that's another thing that um my apologies for the technical issues we can see if it is that we're we're we're losing you there uh can you can you give a brief summary of what you just said yeah I'm sorry so in in terms of in terms of the the modeling itself for the ADCERC model um what we can do to add those scenarios is we could change the mesh the bathymetry of the mesh just to um add in like new built-in environments or we could also change the friction um if if you have like more vegetation for example in those areas so those are um the ways to I guess like add in like all of this new changes that could help prevent having storm surge and storm surges and flooding in the future yeah thank you and there's one other question in the chat um and this from Brad Murray why did inundation from Francis change so much when individual characteristics didn't um so Eureka and Francis is actually one of the interesting ones that we saw um what we were thinking is it's possibly because of the um there's also a change in track and those things actually came naturally from the wharf modeling itself and um I guess like these changes go beyond from what we were looking at so um we're thinking it's possibly because um Eureka and Francis was the future Eureka and Francis was actually was actually getting closer to land and that's why it had more um inundated inundation volume or flooding