 All right, good morning traders and welcome to the pro trader webinar series. It was all last week And we continued to Monday today Where we have Nicholas from Data Dash. He's a crypto trader So looking forward to this we've had Nicholas before He's a founder of Data Dash one of the largest crypto YouTube channels with over 500,000 subscribers And then he's an international speaker thought leader and crypto crypto analyst in the space He's utilized over I'm sorry He's utilized his over 10 years of experience in traditional markets to understand the potential of cryptocurrencies And I have his contact information here. I'll be putting this into the chat so you can click on the links directly You have his website his YouTube channel and bookmap specials from Data Dash as well Let me go over the risk disclosures and then we'll turn it right over to To Nicholas and we'll let him take it away general disclosure all book map limited materials information and presentations are for educational purposes only and should not be considered specific investment advice nor recommendations Risk disclosure trading futures equities and digital currencies Involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results all right, so welcome Nicholas and let's Get your screen up here and I will broadcast it to youtube Awesome. Thank you for having me bruce and thanks for all of you tuning in today I'll go ahead and pull up the screen here and you just let me know whenever you're good to go bruce Oh, yeah, oh excellent. We're all set. Sorry about that. I was muted for a minute No, all good. Thank you guys for making the time to join and I appreciated bruce. Thank you as well for the kind introduction It's been awesome to be working with you guys over the past year So, um, thank you all for making the time to come out here today because I want to spend some time to talk about something That's relatively critical. I think for the time being whether you're short-term trader Kind of mid-term or long-term trader really doesn't matter what time frame it's on We're entering into a really interesting time when it comes to financial markets And that's going to leave us in a much more choppy market. I want to spend some time today to talk about something I've discussed a lot of my channel We're we're essentially preparing for what I've defined as an extended bear market I want to talk about how price action our analysis through tools like book map and the macro conditions are starting to signal a changing environment for traders and This comes at a time as well when and crypto markets derivatives are playing an ever more larger role in the space And we need to be prepared to understand how that price action can give us some cues as to what's really going to come next So I want to go ahead and start off here by talking a little bit about observing price action and market metrics So for me personally I always start off with trying to get an understanding of where we stand with price action and market metrics In order to build a thesis for where we might be heading going into the future And then I really continue to build upon that potential setup by diving through the market order flow and book map Which will talk about it a bit and really considering the macro ramifications for the underlying liquidity in the system And a lot of other things that can play a role in price action So the first thing I want to talk about here is price action I want to dive into bitcoin on multi time frame analysis from the kind of daily weekly monthly time frames Utilizing one of my key momentum indicators that I think will give us a telltale sign about where we're heading A true altcoin market cap measurement This is a custom metric that I build within trading view that I utilize in order to track the actual Market capitalization of altcoins excluding eth and stablecoins Along with that is what we have market metrics such as stablecoin liquidity and stablecoin dominance This is really huge and relevant considering the narratives driven around bitcoin right now That there is a supposed bank run from traditional banks into crypto assets as a safe haven I want to try to counter that that argument Here's we go throughout the conversation and of course altcoin dominance So let's go ahead and take these one step at a time I want to start off with bitcoin here because you know when we're trying to determine a trend here for where bitcoin stands It's really difficult You know we came out of a period of time where we had about a hundred percent move From the lows back during the ftx collapse and back in november 2022 Although it towards the relative highs at nearly exactly 31 000 dollars in april 14th So mid april here after just a couple of months really since back here in january We had a seismic move But I want to go ahead and talk about why the price action we're seeing now Is relatively predictable here when it comes to the circumstances that we're in and this will plan the knock or thesis later But let's just go ahead right now put aside any narratives Whether we have an opinion that we're in a bull market or bear market, right? I want to emphasize that for me. I'm a long-term investor or more specifically a long-term swing trader I like to find trade setups that are going to play out over a generally, you know, kind of one to six month time frame I'm not looking at day trade I'm not looking to do trades on the weekly time frame really is very rare That i'm going to be chasing those kind of setups maybe during pico forward or bull markets Or during capitulative events during bear markets That's again a very rare scenario for me I like to utilize my tool suite to make trades Just a couple major trades each year at max sometimes one big trade that really can Double or triple my portfolio So how can we go about actually doing these kind of trade setups? Well first off? We need to take a look at momentum Momentum is one of the biggest things here that we need to keep it on radar One of the key momentum indicators I like to utilize is one known as trend magic This is an indicator that's been utilized utilizes average true range As well as the commodity channel index that essentially will allow us to have an aggregate indicator on momentum And let us know when essentially trends are starting to shift in either direction I'm not really too big on utilizing indicators nor my big on using them during a shorter term time frames So as much as I really like the indicator here It is one of the few that I actually like to utilize you guys can get it set up on trading view Searching it within the indicator toolbar, but outside of that as well The key thing for me is I like looking at it a longer term time frames It's because basically if we look on daily time frame This can help us capture some pretty big moves here when we actually get the flip on these indicators However at the same time again, I'm a swing trader I want to know when am I having a confirm setup essentially not just a small term When do have time where momentum might be fading which could be met back with bicep pressure Like through a large part of the sell off here since april since we've been pulling back around 30,000 Well, I take it here to the weekly time frame And so far on the weekly time frame We are not seeing a red flip just yet so far the bulls are in charge But we can see that generally when we do get those flips if we do get a red flip here It's usually that those flips are going to hold for a long period of time So this is why I lean in to trend magic as an indicator It's really time tested. It was built way before crypto markets existed And essentially speaking even though on the daily time from our start to see weakness I'm waiting for that confirmation on the weekly time frame because this goes into playing into my bigger thesis here The long term liquidity contraction and long term bear market that we're experiencing right now Now notice here when we play trend magic on the chart and what I can even do here So I'll pull up the all-time history index so we can really see this out over the long term Trend magic on the monthly time frame has been your kind of go-to indicator to let you know when a bull market's kicking off And again, this is not some kind of you know back created indicator just to match bitcoin This is again been around way back. I think since the 90s It's a it's a time test an indicator that was usually utilized in forex markets What's really interesting about this is that it's practically every time Clot the the kind of beginning move from the bear market lows if you will not the absolute low But really the turning point where the vast majority of gains come in for the bull market, right? We can see that here in april 2019 We can see it here in october 2015 and we can see it as well back here during december of 2011 Right when we got the blue flip essentially So that means that bulls are in charge. They're taking the trend momentum is strong And it really is telling because it's on the monthly time frame However, we've been able to make about a 100% move here since back and around november and december Since the collapse of ftx and while the daily trend has had multiple weeks and periods where it was blue The weekly time frame is in the blue as well on a consecutive basis since back and around late january Right now on the monthly time frame And I put significance towards these longer term time frames We are seeing that bitcoin has not gotten the flip after multiple green months here So what's really going on here? What is the indicator telling us? It's telling us here that we've had an overshot relief rally and that we haven't gotten to a high enough price point To essentially after the considering the corrective period that we've gone through We have not gotten towards a heightened enough price Which is somewhere around the kind of 32 33k range to really claim bull market status The claim that we're ready for another major upswing in the market Now again, I don't want to just lean into one indicator or analyze the price itself The key thing though is that this past two months of price action the chop We've seen is easy to understand when we start diving into some of the other metrics here First off again analyzing the market metrics I really want to get into book map here and kind of talk about how that market order flow Is kind of exposing itself in the sense that how it's how essentially you can start to see what's happening under the scenes When you use tools like book map versus just price analysis But there's already enough signs here as well I think that already kind of gauge some some conservatism when it comes to expectations For another bull market. This is another custom metric you can build within trading view It is total two which is measuring all of the market cap excluding bitcoin And what we do is that we subtract ethereum. We subtract usdc and usdt This gives us a generally good picture Minus a few stable coins or outliers about what the value of the all coin market is And what we can see is that we're not only a far cry away from where we were back in November 2021 But essentially that we've continued to face resistance at a key price range here That used to be prior support during the last bull market at around 330 billion dollars We have not been able to reclaim above that range since we collapsed through back in may when we retested it And in a sense then served as a resistance point where time and time again We continue to set slightly lower highs and lower lows And this is again a sign here about not to get caught up in relief rallies Well, we got on the week the time frame that flip here and get on the monthly time frame if we zoom out We can essentially see that the trend has been in the red And the key thing is this we want to know when it's time to just get on the train and ride it And when we can't get the train to show up to the station If we can't get a blue flip here on our momentum indicators in the monthly time frame We have to ask ourselves the big question. Are we really ready for another bull market? That's the question I want to answer here because you know crypto bull markets Don't tend to last as long as traditional bear market Excuse me bull markets and it's actually kind of a good thing because the gains not only far out pays traditional bull markets and equities But they really give us in a short window of time some opportunity to make life changing returns So i'm not too much rushing on a 40 50 movement alt coins I'm not rushing when bitcoin goes up 100 because if I don't have the circumstances that let me know Without with certainty to a large extent that we are going to be moving higher I'm not going to be chasing that trade right So again, we can see this in both bitcoin the more defensive asset on that monthly time frame And we can see it here on all coins as well We were not able during this move to continue accelerating enough to get a flip on that indicator And that for me throughout all my trading years. This has been one of the most consecutive indicators that i've seen here And it's rarely accessible for people to access right The other thing here as well that I want to talk about is stablecoin Stablecoin market cap now this is something that I I haven't really seen many people talk about but I think it's imperative here You know we always hear about how people say how the feds just going to print more money And lower interest rates and by bolstering credit in the economy and the amount of liquidity The assets are just going to counteract they're going to continue to move higher and you know kind of be cushioned by that liquidity however While this has been incredibly true in the crypto market say back in the last bull market or at least excuse me the last bear market into the next bull market from 2018 in december All the way towards february of 2022 We had stablecoin liquidity expanding rapidly from around and estimated 2.3 billion dollars all the way towards 138 billion That's what it took to give us the bull market that we saw from roughly around at that time $3,000 bitcoin all the way towards a 65k bitcoin and a whole swath of altcoins and nfts and you name it Well, we can see that on the logarithmic scale. This was a huge rapid amount of stablecoin expansion I think the figures alone stand out quite decently at loan on their own But if we take a look at the past couple of months actually really the last year since april of 2022 Stablecoin liquidity has actually been on the decline really for the first time To such a significant degree even on the log scale here We've seen liquidity contract by roughly around 23 billion dollars and that's not a good You know thing to see here essentially to see over 20 billion dollars of net liquidity coming out of the market Now since we got those lows around november and december liquidity has expanded by roughly about 2 billion dollars For stablecoins for usdT and usdc So we need to ask ourselves here. Do we have the liquidity to really back the next cycle? Are we seeing the main institutional on ramp which is stablecoin liquidity? I know some people will say well They can't people just go on coinbase or exchanges and just buy with direct fiat But it's important to note that the stablecoin on ramp is how the vast majority of liquidity actually comes into the crypto space Institutional liquidity comes through these on ramps Especially through tether and if we're not seeing that expansion now What is that telling us here about the current state of the market and the price actually we've seen and whether or not it can Actually hold I will give another great metric here One other great thing is that even if you believe we are in a new bull market One important thing to turn towards is a measurement another exclusive one that that we created a while ago Which is dominance on stablecoin liquidity. So again taking in the market share of usdT and usdc And we can see that these players roughly on about 10 of crypto market cap So that trillion I think it's probably trilling 1.2 trillion dollar figure But just bitcoin all-time market cap e-market cap and stablecoins This shows that roughly stablecoin liquidity is about 10 of the market Now why is this an important metric to watch? Essentially it shows us that over time as we add more altcoins to the market as valuations generally are at heightened levels You need more liquidity to justify those valuations If money is leaving the cryptocurrency space like stablecoin liquidity fiat currency is leaving the system Order books are getting thinner less buyers and attention are being brought to the market Then essentially we need to have discounted prices. We need to get it at a point where Basically stablecoins make up a much larger share of the market So what I generally watch for just to kind of extend it out here Is that I'm waiting for essentially stablecoin liquidity to come up into this band here somewhere around 25 percent market share Because when we get up to a point where stablecoins make up such a large portion of the market That likely means we have discounted prices We have stablecoin liquidity either where it was before or at increased levels And that's going to leave towards a lucrative market There's more dollars readily available to go out there and purchase bitcoin And you can see just how consistent this has been throughout time So we can see between the highs and lows sometimes the exceptions a little bit lower Sometimes deviating outside the range, but generally speaking this is where the opportunity lies and right now where we are Well, we're right back down to this band. This is exactly where we were In the sense of the line that's been built here back in november 2021 Back here around march and april and may of 2021 where we were having our first top of the market And also here in june 2019 during the relief rally. That is not a good look here for crypto So it likely means that in the near term whether we're in a bull market or not We're in an overbought period of time and it's best to wait for a correction It's best to wait for periods like december 2018 periods like march 2020 when bitcoin went practically right back down to its bare market lows Periods like october 2020 when really we got the first major beginning of the on ramp Towards the bull market and really kind of got out of this kind of questionable territory for bitcoin And of course the mid-cycle correction point in july of 2021 And last but not least want to take a look at here is altcoin dominance So we can see that essentially excuse me not altcoin dominance, but rather um in the opposite counter measure Taking a look at the dominance of bitcoin ETH and USDT and USDC Now this shows us that the vast majority of the market is owned by two parties defensive plays bitcoin and ethereum And stablecoin liquidity USDT and USDC When these large players are continuing to make up a larger share of the market This shows that the market is taking a less risk on approach stablecoin liquidity is rich in the market But on top of that as well We're also seeing that the defensive plays are making up a larger share of the market This likely means more specifically that altcoin dominance is bleeding that altcoins are making up a lower share of the market And again, we've already saw here that we're pretty much looking like we're ready to roll right back down to this range here If bitcoin isn't looking bearish altcoins are definitely looking like it And we basically have been writing about this for the past year at our newsletter That essentially we believe we kind of closed our positions back in august during the first relief rally And for a lot of the altcoin positions So many of them maybe bitcoin has gone maybe a couple thousand dollars ahead of where we would have sold it but the altcoin positions Were sold at a much better price than where they are now And it's because we believe that you know altcoin cycles are very rare Historically speaking and we want to buy into altcoins when There's basically a favorable environment to take risk when the defensive plays and stablecoin liquidity make up a lot Of the market share because that means we have cheap altcoins And we likely have a strong bitcoin in ethereum and we have a lot more stablecoin liquidity All of which are conditions. We just don't have yet. We don't have that stablecoin liquidity You know bitcoin it is while it had a great move here. It's been stagnant for two months This is not typical bull market activity So we need to be very cautious here about you know, what we're seeing within the metrics and whether or not We're going to actually chase the narratives again going back here to dollar liquidity People have been saying people are running from the banking system, but we're not seeing it within the stablecoin metrics We should be seeing it even more at a faster acceleration, but maybe now the longer the next scale We should be should be seeing, you know a net increase equal for our bull markets or greater So this is uh, this is again a big part here that I think is important to focus on However, I want to go ahead here and talk a little bit about how book map can really accelerate our analysis here Now I know a lot of you out there who are probably watching Uh, you might be very well more short-term traders. There's nothing wrong with that. I've done day trading and swing You know more shorter term swing trading in the past You know if you can build a process and framework and you know your markets and the types assets you like to trade Then it can be really great. However, you know, as you all know using book map It gives you that additional edge when it comes to doing short-term trading But I don't even want to make the argument here that can help you with long-term training as well Because book map measures a lot of key things that you just cannot get with traditional price action analysis Going beyond what the chart is presenting you for me I actually like to focus a lot on some of the core fundamental elements like multibook and cumulative volume delta That book map has to offer. So I wanted to go ahead and kind of pull up this chart here We know what we'll dive into the we can dive into the live version as well But I took a snippet here of really the past You know kind of weeks worth of price action roughly speaking and what's interesting is to a trader You know kind of in the short term people are looking at this and say, okay, this is potential range You know, we got you know, a couple deviations around these ranges. That's what I'm looking at basically kind of counter trade You know just trades ranges make some short-term returns and that's all great and everything But for me doing those kind of long-term swing trades like the 100 percent move we saw in bitcoin here I'm going to know whether or not we're going to have that next big move to the downside here Or the next big move to the upside and book map can really help us do that because while this price action looks inconsistent It looks like pretty much it's been unchanged for about a week What's happening behind the scenes is very different You know within book map right now We're seeing over minus 10,000 on the cumulative volume delta for multi book So what I do here and this is something that I get I don't think many people will utilize in and Within book map as an application There's this little arrow right here that will allow you to draw back over a certain period of time You can see the heating up you can see price action the volume bubbles as well as the cumulative volume delta And generally not only see how the market structure is changing So this is very important here So you can see essentially where bids are coming in how they're changing over time Did they get filled which can give you a lot of information as well But for me, I really care about that cumulative volume delta And the reason I care about that is because while price action has been relatively neutral over the past week I'm seeing consistent major bubbles of sell side volume into any bids on the order book And this tells me that there is some large player or pairing of large players Who are essentially getting out whenever possible at suspended prices They are they are not waiting for us to go back to all-time highs They are continuously unloading onto the market having these big sales Waiting for price to kind of drive back up with some additional kind of short term bid support And then just continuing to offload they've been doing this week by week by week over the past couple weeks And this is why even back in early, uh, you know towards late march early april We actually talked a lot on the channel about generally how this distribution has been playing out And how relief rallies and how when price kind of chops sideways like what we've seen I'll bring back here to the daily time frame how this kind of activity Again, especially with the narratives we've had around the bank run around de-dollarization and how the dollar is going to collapse All this stuff starts to come out once we've had the expansion price because now Market makers large players institutions exchanges whoever is in there being exposed from these long-term moves They can slowly unload a much higher price action and that's again exactly how it plays out We keep running up to the prior relative high just at a slightly higher range Offloading we drive up to new relative highs We chop down have a nice flush over the next couple days We set in lower highs here and then slowly with steadily that market structure starts to break And it can no longer hold anymore because sell side pressure starts to outweigh any bid support for people who are preparing for the next Move to the upside that's at least how I interpret it here within the market And I think kimono volume delta can give us a really big telltale sign here on the weekly time frame It's not just about trying to analyze, you know What's going on here in the near term zooming in exactly into the shorter term time frames? It can be very powerful for that And that's again some of the other tools I like to use on the shorter term time frame If I were to go back to doing more day trading in the market, especially if I was I like, you know It was like we were in like a bull market or um, you know I felt that there was some good ranges to trade. I would definitely use the liquidation tracker And that's another great tool that you can utilize in order to actually Understand, you know with derivatives now the exchanges are trading against the user That's the important thing you gotta understand So it's not a matter of going in with a lot of leverage and inevitably being the trap of the exchange Who's making money from your liquidations? But you want to actually find out the suckers who are essentially going in with too much leverage When they get forced out of their positions, whether you're trading futures or perpetuals I want to see when they're getting liquidated and when we get those high tickets to liquidations That's when you can get some really good scalping opportunities and just kind of short term trade opportunities within the market personally But again, it's not my expertise. I don't want to talk like I know too much about it For me I like to focus on these longer term time frames and that for me is how bookmark has been incredibly valuable So I do want to talk about kind of a you know, kind of a solid strategy because we we looked at a weekly time frame And how cumulavon delta can kind of expose what's really going on behind the scenes to prepare for maybe a broader trend But one week's worth of cumulavon delta is not enough as you all heard earlier. I review it Basically every week. I'm constantly tracking cumulavon delta every monday to review the prior trading days the past seven days Of price action And more specifically the market order flow to that cumulavon delta So I wanted to go ahead and share my bookmark strategy Again, this isn't the kind of end will be all for me to go out and make trades But it is one of my big confirmation signals that can give me a backbone foundation towards making one of my trades Uh, you know, whether it be to the long side or the downside or essentially going long or short So as a swing trader who's trading with that one six month time frame I'm looking to track cumulavon delta on a weekly basis I make it my routine to come in every monday in am Pull up book map pull on that seven day time frame and essentially I even have it set by default Once I I have that pulled up I can see whether or not it's positive or negative And if we're in a position where we're just constantly having chop green red green red I'm not looking to trade in that environment because there's inconsistency within that mark order flow bids on the order book You know again, basically in this case limit orders bids are asked You know the heat map is important, right? That is significant for sure and there's always going to be equal buyers and sellers Always someone matching on the other side of the trade. However, that cumulavon delta or mark order flow is what drives full markets If I'm not seeing consecutive weeks a positive cumulavon delta I'm not too interested because I want to trade those big trades over multiple months and potentially expand the sound To a year plus, right? If we're really in a full scale bull market and not trade too much I just want to ride the wave, right? So if I see cumulavon delta is positive or negative for three to five weeks I'm starting to see conviction in the trade I'm starting to see that there is a chance for a multi-month reversal The foundation is starting to establish itself I don't really you know care so much about what market makers are doing with the bids or the house on the order book We're doing I'm seeing that there is a lot of pressure here on one side of the trade And that's the kind of pressure that can really lead towards substantial moves And especially a thinly traded market like crypto right now That's why I think we saw this 100% move is that there's not too much liquidity in this one It doesn't take too much and that's kind of telling here is one with what we saw with these stable coin metrics along with that as well If we do find that we have that kind of positive or negative setup And we got to go longer short We essentially are waiting for cumulavon delta to do the opposite and repeat this step If we're starting to see that for three or five weeks, we're seeing Changes in the opposite direction if we're seeing growing inconsistency within the overall setup And we're not saying that week by week by week green expansion Right again price doesn't always have to make new highs every week. It doesn't do that It will have corrections But if we're just you know not seeing that constantly, you know, generally we're outweighing much more You know kind of positive weeks in the cumulavon delta versus down weeks That's spelling a lot of issues in my mind personally and that's making me think That okay, it's time for turn reversal time to get ready for this setup And this right here is exactly what we've been seeing here We had multiple weeks of positive cumulavon delta Many months if you will during these periods of time when we had rapid expansion in january So the period of march these really too big leg ups here We saw lots of continued positive cumulavon delta However, we are seeing while price action is relatively stagnant right now We are seeing massive red cumulavon delta on market sell side pressure So that's the way that I personally use book map here But I think again overall everyone's got different strategies because they trade on different time frames For me, this is something that will help you guys make the big trains as much as there are those You out there who might like the day trade. I don't want to again I don't want to get a debate about which ways is best to trade But as many of you know the statistics The shorter time frame you're trading the more likely you are to lose out to the market The more leverage you're trading with the more likely you get liquidated or stopped out I'm not really big about doing that because there's already enough great markets like crypto That offer us the kind of volatility to be able to make some substantial moves In both directions and make great returns for that matter So I really want to capture the bigger moves and you know, as a lot of people are focused on Rightfully so they want to know when we're going to get this next kick off a bull market So you can just ride the train and enjoy it, right? That's that's it should really be simple It shouldn't be something too complex when we're seeing this though for the first time in history This makes me think that for the first time Bitcoin is going to experience more than a traditional bear market We are about to experience a longer term liquidity contraction And this brings me towards the macro topic that I want to discuss the macro conditions I want to talk about the United States central bank balance sheet the M2 money supply Funds rate and what dive into bond markets I know some of this might sound a bit boring at the end of the day It's not as exciting as crypto But I think a lot of you out there are probably a relatively, you know Kind of tapped into these areas as well because you're probably trading equities as well and kind of a broad macro class of assets I'm the same way I like to trade across not just crypto, but also the broader markets as well So let's take a look here at the United States central bank balance sheet A lot of people look just directly into but I like to look at the balance sheets as well And I do look at the United States balance sheet and look at also Balance sheets in Asia like Bank of Japan the people people's Bank of China look at the ECB But generally speaking at the end of the day the most important balance sheet you can track here Is the United States central bank balance sheet? It is tied to the world reserve currency the Fed With having the forward reserve currency and the monetary policy tied to that currency framework They are really going to lead the charge globally And we saw this over the past year, especially in inflationary environments where the Fed really led the way first on tightening efforts And essentially other central banks like ECB And others started to follow suit as well And they're stopping stimulus efforts in the case of countries like Japan or more Stingently cutting interest rates Excuse me increasing interest rates and tightening the balance sheet like an ECB or the Bank of England Now one thing that a lot of people started to point out towards and I really had to kind of go through a couple weeks Where people were berating me about this and they were talking about nick, you know While the central bank has been tightening balance sheet since april 2022 into february Really almost coming up on a year here. We had a major deviation where for a couple weeks we expanded the balance sheet This was from the banking crisis that we saw there's a lot of run in the banks silicon valley bank went under You know a first republic bank and then also of course There was I think signature in silicon valley bank Those are kind of the three big ones and not to mention those are big players in the crypto space Which kind of explains why stablecoin liquidity is flat here. Those bank non-ramps are starting to shut down Silvergate as well another one again. Just all these players Got really crushed during that period of time and that's setting a setback on stablecoin liquidity But it's not just the microcosm of crypto that that's really a concern here It's really global liquidity because we talked about how this was going to be a short-term blip on the channel Because of the fundamental fact that this expansion here is not traditional qe All right, so that's where this metric can be sometimes a bit deceiving We need to understand that essentially this was a short-term wave of relief for various different types of banks In order to satisfy against potential bank runs bolster liquidity And was essentially a short-term package for the fed in order to help these banks start to prepare for a more tightening environment And you can see right here and there that one thing is very clear One that credit is starting to contract, but also traditional quantitative tightening is still on autopilot This is one thing a lot of people missed on and they've been ignoring from the fed meetings week by week We're contracting by tens of billions of dollars of liquidity. This week alone. We had a minus 58 billion dollars from the overall money supply. That's a contraction of 0.7 percent might not sound like a lot But if you keep doing this every week, you're talking about reducing a lot of the money supply Given you know a couple months time, which is what the fed is likely going to have to do And why we've had kind of mapped out here that we're going to have to probably bring liquidity somewhere In between where it was during the kind of covid stimulus that we saw from 2019 balance sheet expansion all the way towards 2022 So liquidity is still contracting here. That's a nice good sign Another way of measuring this is taking a look at the m2 money supply This is again only on the monthly time frame So we need to kind of take it again here with the monthly trend and month by month here We're seeing that the m2 money supply is not only, you know dropping here But it dropped at its most dramatic rate in march down 257 billion dollars So global liquidity is contracting. It's not just crypto So the macro inflows are nowhere to be found stable coin liquidity is nowhere to be found And once more the cost of capital is getting more expensive I I was kind of in the contrarian camp over the past couple years You know we constantly heard lies from the fed that you know inflation is transitory and that this was going to be a short term ride but at the end of the day inflation kept moving higher and Whereas a lot of people thought the cap for the fed funds rate was going to be around this range Where we were in april 2019 where we pivoted last time We were calling back over a year ago that this was going to go to five percent plus And we know know that essentially we're going to be going here towards five percent But I think now we need to be prepared for trading environment And this is what I would say to anyone who's thinking about the bullish narrative here I'm not saying we have to go to this range here We'll have to see how the fed continues to play it out with the inflationary metrics I think five percent was the level I was I was quite confident at that time But the question I want to ask here is whether or not traders who are buying in this market who are swing trading You know trying to buy every single dip You know dollars was to average aim or trying to kind of swing trade and buy on a new bull market What happens to bitcoin if we come up into six or seven percent range? And I know this sounds like I'm talking out my my rear end. I'm in la la land. This can't happen We were just up here in the early 2000s Or back here during the 80s and we went much higher during that period again very different macro environment for where we are now but the same inflationary pressures and Question we have to ask ourselves is if inflation is as sticky as it is still now minus like energy prices And if we're talking about housing and rent costs food and other base of big Commodities or products or services if that inflation continues to stay in this range And it's not dropping like a rock and the fed still has at a minimum even at this current projector according to the cpi and the pce As well over probably around nine to twelve months before it is going to reach its two percent target If we know that it's going to take that long and that the fed has to keep it there How far is the fed going to have to take the federal funds rate to get to its objective? How quick is it going to get there? Because if we kick the can down the road we know that inflation is just going to get worse And I think that drone powell and the fed know this this is why it's so important to watch these metrics Last thing I want to take a look at here guys just to to keep it open up for some questions I want to take a look at the us 10 year deal And I don't want to just take a look at the monthly, you know as I talked earlier I like to look at the long-term time frames and man this chart Speaks louder than anything, you know bonds to a lot of people can be quite boring Because they're fixed income products. You don't really I mean you can trade bonds if you want But it's it's really a very specific type of traders who who watch these markets and trade them I'm not even here to say you need to go out and buy bonds or do anything, but I want to say this You know that trend magic in again, we utilize here for the first time on the annual chart I'm talking about each of these candles is an entire year. So we're looking back over nearly 100 years here For the first time since 1950 US 10 year treasuries On their yield have flipped blue after More than 30 years Downward trajectory Now some people would say that this is just up here for a little while and then we're going to fade back down with the fed Pivots and goes back down to 0% interest rates Here's the thing This chart here. I think seems a very clear signal that maybe we don't go as high here as we did in the 70s with runaway inflation But by addressing it early, we are going to probably hang in this range for some time That the fed funds are just going to stay suspended for longer than people think That we are in a new era here the 80s to the 2020s were a period of high growth high expansion high innovation. We had the internet. We had smartphones We had advancements in biotechnology. We had enterprise software solutions You had all kinds of things that created trillions of entrants of dollars of value But if you take a look across the macro scale now, not only is the liquidity contracting But you're seeing a lot less innovation a lot less risk taking the thing that is driving stocks like meta that's driving Into stocks, you know all across the board here and the fang stocks for example There were previous market leaders They're rallying off of the idea of layoffs and cutting cost And one of the key things that I think a lot of you probably already know about It's the same thing for crypto or stocks is that equity to move up not off of pure fundamentals all the time They move up through paying a higher pe multiple versus the actual core earnings because of growth expectations If growth expectations are not there Then we've got a big problem because as bond yields start to move up as we enter into a contractionary environment or rates are higher And therefore bond yields are higher or the cost to borrow capital for the government gets higher That this is going to make it much more lucrative to just simply buy passive income vehicles like treasuries Why go out and and trade the s and p 500 When I can go ahead and on a 10 year yield at 3.7 percent not to mention I can Buy residual one month yield. Um, you know, it's right now and I can earn 5.7 percent That that's better than any savings account It's better than any the vast majority of investment vehicles Unless you're really the type who's trading in video, you know, or something like that's really kind of risk on Which is nothing that there's nothing wrong with that as well Then this is going to kill the liquidity inflows to risk on markets the higher this goes the worse it is And back in the 70s and as you can go back and take a look during this period of time This was not a rapid period of expansion for property markets For equities. It was a chop period. We can take a look at the s and d 500 But on the log scale, uh, we can see here during that period of time Back during the 70s and 80s, right? We didn't really reclaim a new uptrend For over 12 years Right, we didn't have some, you know massive pullback. We did have a period of time where we went from around 122 points down to 62 50 percent correction. That's what I would expect here. Nothing too doomsday-ish But essentially a lot of chop a lot of uncertainty Only until then once inflation was resolved were we able to have a period of expansion And uh, this kind of leads me towards my close here. Last one is the of course the yield driven version We can take with the us 10 year yield minus the us two year yield. Excuse me this type that This is kind of the close here One of the candle chart monthly time frame This is the greatest yield curve inversion that we have had in our history And as you all know the yield curve inversion is a leading indicator like here it was in 2000 or in 2006 or in the 80s About an upcoming recession and we've never deviated this low before What does that tell us about how bad things are about to get here over the next coming years? The last thing I'm thinking about touching is a risk-on asset like bitcoin and I've covered crypto on my channel since 2017 I think crypto has uh, it has a place in my heart in a lot of ways. I think bitcoin will always be Uh, relevant asset in the world, but I think we got to get ready for a changing environment So I ramp it all a little bit longer than I intended guys I appreciate you guys making the time for letting me go on a little bit and talk at some of these charts Um, and I would definitely love to open up some questions I hear your thoughts as well bruce, uh, because I really respect your you know You're trading trading strategies and just kind of overview on the market, but uh, yeah, thank you guys for giving me some time to chat Okay, excellent. Thank you. Thank you, nicholas. Um, really interesting stuff. Um, I don't see any questions guys get your questions in on youtube or in, uh, discord um What nicholas is going over is uh, um Vitally important. I mean, this is you know, the the If you look at the bonds and uh interest rates and and the fed action This is really what drives markets. Uh, the cost of money, uh, is uh And how much money is out there? Um and and supply these are really really, um uh amazing things to, uh understand or comprehend and watch here because Uh, it it drives the market. Um, and boy, you're painting a pretty bleak picture here, uh, nicholas, but um It's it feels a bit foreign for me bruce because i'm like i've been i've been so used i've only to be completely fair I started trading in around like 2011. Um, so it was yeah about 2011 So it's been over about 12 12 13 years. Um, about 12 years since I started my trading journey And you know back then I I grew up in and basically this period of time with the bull market The secular bull runs we went through for the last decade, which was fed driven The mantra was buy the dip all the time And uh, you know that that was great during that period of time But when you're in an inflationary environment exactly as you said because of the contraction of liquidity and the cost of capital There's just no way to have that kind of buy the dip mentality anymore People would rather take, you know, you know access money and and every time you're getting those higher bond yields I mean, that's all that's all you hear about now is people are switching their money to Money market accounts place. They get a better yield in their money They're playing defensive to hedge against inflation And now you can get yields that practically match the rate of inflation in the economy Which is why liquidity is pretty much frozen from going to these kind of markets Yeah Yeah, and you can see the money. I mean on this chart here. I mean you can just see it flowing right out And with the inversion curve there, you know But uh, uh, yeah, I mean, uh, I if you go back to your your bookmap slide for a minute I I was just something like I wanted to Mention in here and it is very much related to your cumulative volume delta Is the this is something that I personally saw years ago In crypto when it was around 20,000 and then broke to 60 Several days cumulative volume delta and I'm not not so much the cvd line itself It was the the the volume bars and the dots that you have there It was just like solid green Even though there was ups and downs and it was actually quite sideways during that time, but it was nothing but accumulation It was amazing to to see Here there's a little bit of buying, you know, you can see like I'm looking at the bars the volume bars Uh on the sub chart there. Yeah, and there's a little bit of buying here and there Some years ago before that big break. It was nothing but green day after day after day I mean like for a long time, uh, and then it just You know shot up to to 60,000. Uh, it was incredible. Uh, so Yeah, I was, um Watching this actually pretty closely as well And I wanted to ask you about this And I'm I'm really glad that I can see you looking very very much right at it here with the cumulative volume delta and it's Yeah, I mean just look at all of that selling and price is still going kind of sideways. It's it's um, something's a little off You know, you know, that's the thing is it's it's it's kind of confusing because when you see Exactly as you said Bruce like in the counter scenario You can have price kind of going sideways around that that 20k level that you were talking about Before things just start to explode Yet at the same time price is generally still pushing sideways and vice versa here for before like big moves to the downside You can have a lot of negative can move on delta And I think the reason for that is because you do initially have bid side support says as we talked But there's always going to be a trader on the other side And that's what happened here. You know why prices bounced up in the near term There was a nice layer of bid side support on the heat map around 24 26,400 and 26,500 and you even have these kind of heat levels here that changed and varied over time But you know, if you really kind of scan out, I could even pull up book map here as well Give me one moment and I'll um Pull it up here real quick and I think got it here. There we go So you guys can see this good Yeah, yeah, I mean and look at that around, you know, eight o'clock on the 20th there That that massive spoof of liquidity on the bid And that just and then look at look at the liquidity up above on the offer, you know So it really looks like these guys are trying to get price to get up there Uh, so that maybe they can get filled uh around that 27,500 or so Exactly. Yeah, it's it that's the problem is that with the heat map Yeah, you always have to look out for spoofing and when I see things like this exact as you said Bruce I'm thinking about okay What are these people trying to kind of push what what direction are they trying to get filled and exactly as you said When you have the liquidity in both directions, you can really do some some pretty nefarious things and stuff on your book And that's why I kind of zoom out and I'm thinking okay, let's let's squeeze the price action here Look at the long term timeframes You know over the week here, we've just had constant bid supported around, you know, 25,000 So that's really sense like, you know, uh, generally speak as I'm seeing these kind of big weekly outflows of community volume Delta that's always my next target It helps me to kind of not if I were to do short term trading, uh, or even really those big swings I'm looking for okay. We've got one really big bid side supportive because if that essentially Does not get if that gets filled and we start getting cleared down, right? There might be some other, you know order book bids that come in But that's probably going to clear us for another couple thousand dollars to move down And it wouldn't be too surprising to see something relatively big because that's exactly what we saw in the counter direction markets chopped sideways from november to january And basically started ballooning out of nowhere when cumulonavon delta took over and I think again as you mentioned Like with the 20k metric back in uh, october and november 2020 That's exactly what we saw in that period of time I feel a little bit bad because I went against my my inclinations there There was a lot of things at the time and the macro conditions that that didn't look good to me But I did notice when I was looking at book map. I saw man CVD is positive like the majority of the weeks down here. What's going on and uh, that was again how I missed a You know that that initial first major move in january. That was the telltale sign It was one of the only major metrics that was really flashing that for me and uh, it's unfortunate But yeah, I think at the end of the day that that is again a time tested example Similar to the one you mentioned in october of 2020 during the last bull market that it can really be quiet And then something major happens. Uh, and that's again between accumulation or distribution right now I think we're seeing You know typical distribution here. It's been every week. I've been looking at this and I'm getting a read between Generally, I think with the last couple I checked was around like minus 5000 Usually minus 10 000 or eight or nine thousand You know, I'm generally seeing really negative came of on delton. This is measuring bias and wobbies So we're getting a lot of uh, and this is the tether pairing as well which I care much more about because the quiddity is is generally quite deep in these exchanges and uh, generally speaking, uh, you know, overall I think this is one of the best deepest order books that we can take a look at here And if bitcoin is not leading if there's not people getting excited at these prices And uh, you know, the order book is relatively thin in both directions volatility can pick up really quickly Yeah, yeah, absolutely. Um, and and look for that break I mean, it might be your your longer term trend line break that you were looking at earlier Um, can you can you just do um do a thing here? Um on the um Price ladder hold the control um hover over it and then hold control down and then scroll Uh, you know downwards, um, you know, so um Um You zoomed you zoomed vertically before but what I'm asking is like, um, now Hold control down and then hover over over the price ladder there. Just right over the price ladder hold control down And then just go down and in price out because I want to show you something. Um No now hold control down as you do that Yeah, let's see. Oh, there we go Am I doing that right sir? Not not quite like uh, you'll if you hold the control key down and and scroll there Yeah, you were just starting to do it Well, anyway, there's an interesting thing like you can you can go um and see that There's a lot of liquidity resting down around 5000 uh, and uh You know even some like a year ago is down at like, uh 500 So people were betting it was going to zero basically. Wow And I mean you can see quite a bit down there around. I don't know 11 12 000 Right now and you know, there's a there's a lot down there. Uh, in fact, we had to um With the development of some of our add-on indicators, we needed to readjust the indicator uh to Because the the book and balance Was so great with that liquidity down there. We had to actually exclude it from the calculation So so yeah, I mean this is telling here. It's saying something That that might be that's what a lot of people are thinking the value is is down there around that You know 11 000 or 12 000 something like that Yeah, exactly to your point for sorry by the way, I couldn't get the uh, the thing set up properly But you're you're exactly right about like this kind of figure. I've honestly always I try to scroll out See what the heat map is And that really might be the price floor I know I know a lot of people are like, you know If you miss the november lows, you kind of miss the absolute low ftx can't get any worse than that But the problem I think people have is they they see kind of the the immediate destruction of the industry with You know, these big exchanges Celsius and block by going under as the kind of end all be all can't be any worse Right, we've kind of cleared out all the skeletons in the closet but exactly as you mentioned bruce like, uh, you know You got to look at the order book and see like hey, okay, like If that's the low like where are the institutions who are going to provide that bid support? And we have some here We have our our typical kind of range that we can look at where there are some bids, but really You know if this gets cleared through Then there isn't much outside of this kind of 25 24k range of potential bid side support Until we really get down here and that will probably change over time Maybe it gets a little bit more dense But this is where really as you said the liquidity really ramps up Like people are really willing to buy down at that kind of 12 13k range And I think that that makes sense because if you look at like just even a traditional crypto bear market Usually we have a correction over 80 percent Usually roughly around 83 to 85 percent for most bear markets And if you take it from the all-time highs at around 65,000 You kind of get to that ballpark figure of around like 12k. It's it's not too far off from a traditional bear market So yeah, I think that again, it's a it's a clear signal here that you know, there's there's not much else liquidity That's going to be providing that bid side support So if we start getting massive Even further massive Kimlin volume delta to the downside and market order flow and people Start looking at the narratives like the million dollar bitcoin price predictions We were hearing about and the bank runs and de dollarization because of you know bricks and all these Global alliances that might be trying to take on the dollar Dixie the dollar index has been moving up. That's basically where it was And I think like november or december of last year So six months of practically neutral price action after its pullback And it just had a blue flip on the weekly time from the first time since june of 2021 on our our trend magic indicator And so I'm seeing dollar strength. I'm seeing treasury yields going up because their S band of feds is going to be pricing our interest rates I I can't there's there's very difficult for me to get really excited about crypto here And we got to ask you, you know, if those narratives that we were talking about earlier They fell through then what is going to drive bitcoins price to new all-time highs What's going to justify is going back to even, you know 40k 50 60k let alone 100 000 dollars that a lot of people are calling for so Yeah, that's that's what I keep coming back to unfortunately. Yeah. Yeah Um, I there's a few questions here in youtube and I'll get through them in just a second There's something else I wanted to kind of wrap Or include into that question is how How would you You know, since you're a longer timeframe trader, uh, you are looking to build a position over time and You know, I imagine like, you know on the way up it was buying the dips um, and Or if it's something else like on the way down now, are you building a large position? Looking for that move to the downside or are you just exiting altogether and just not really want to play in this field? That's a great question. Yeah, I've been in cash. Um, I we basically for the first time in a long period of time We liquidated a lot of our positions at around a bitcoin value of 25 000 dollars As I referenced a bit earlier for the alt we were exposed to a lot of alt coins And that was really, you know, that relief rally was a great exit opportunity for some of those positions We should have gotten rid of earlier. Um, you know as we we were a bit late to picking up the macro conditions around inflation Um, but you know because I was really kind of siloed a lot into the crypto space So it's it's something I learned from greatly and I took advantage of that opportunity Which is a really like a big blessing. I think in disguise Uh, but the the big thing around like my building of position going into the next bull market So I'm in cash right now, but for me what I really want to kind of wait for here I see whether or not we're able to hold on the, you know, the 200 a moving average I can pull up the chart here real quick. I'll switch screens Uh, let's see here. I'll get it back up There we go So I'm looking if I go to bitcoin Right here to the uh daily time frame one of the big gauges and we obviously the momentum indicator if we get the red flip That's my that's my cue considering the cumulavon delta and book map The red flip on trend magic Uh, and also the considering the tightening macro liquidity That's my kind of three cues to go short And I think that'll be a multi months set up similar to the multi month uptrend we had here Uh to potentially, you know make a good like 30 50 percent short might do two x leverage and kind of double those returns Hopefully double the risk profile, but um, you know for me personally, I'm looking at short here in the near term But once we get back into this kind of accumulation range, I look at things like vwap I'm looking at cumulavon delta whenever I see those flips start to come in I'm going to start accumulating uh week by week, you know Probably about like 10 of my portfolio into another kind of dca strategy that people can implement If they're looking to take more of a traditional investment approach They can do it where essentially, you know, you take the existing market price now If you think you're nearing a low, um, you can basically have it where for every 10 decline Let's say you have 500 dollars in capital, um that you have set aside could be 250 dollars of savings that you have And 250 dollars of weekly income that you want to just park away for the future What I like to do is I don't like to just dca all that capital, right? And we're still in a broader term downtrend what I do is do small allocations So I might start off with 10 of that 500 dollars or 50 bucks every week averaging in So I have a little stake in it in case it starts to do really well So I don't miss out entirely But if we start to get more corrections say like another 10 decline from existing prices Then I'm going to bump that up to uh, you know, for example 100 or 150 I start to accelerate it And the more 10 declines we get I'm essentially getting to a point where I'm going to be using my full capacity 50 percent from that range If we go even lower that I'm going to start pulling into some of that additional capital that I didn't use in prior allocations And go heavier It's a bit of a unique dollar cost averaging strategy like there's a I was originally how to start up and we wanted to focus on people getting paid in crypto And one of my big focuses was going to be doing smart dca where when data science models are oversold When price action is generally just on a you know, kind of a range Oversold, uh, that's when we would average and heavier, you know And you don't have to stress too much about what the price is doing and you know, having all the emotions of trading But I personally for me, I'm more of an active trader. So for me, I'm looking For that cumulative volume delta start showing some positive, uh, weeks that are going against my kind of bearish narrative here Showing a sign of a trim flip I'm looking for a blue flip here on trim magic And I'm also looking for generally price action to show that kind of accumulation pattern of of of sideways price action The one of my closer remarks I'd want to make here is that if people don't believe if believe this was the bottom here I would ask them what they think this is It's uh It's almost a screaming example of the same price action huge candle here 26 move to the upside back here was 22 move to the downside And a bit of chop For you know, about two months. That's about what we've done here And that's why again, I would say to to not get siloed in the idea that this had to be the bottom And that long term, you know, we people always point towards the logarithmic chart This is where it gets a bit kind of chilling if you all like towards that macro thesis we talked about earlier You know bitcoin is always going to have the logarithmic logarithmic growth curve people have talked about and While a lot of people are relying on that and there are different interpretations and drawings of it or the rainbow chart or You know, whatever data science models people might turn towards Those models everything of the last decade are likely to be broken significantly And it wouldn't be surprising to see bitcoin have a period of time where if interest rates remain where they are now for a year Plus out from now where it comes down into this 1112k pocket, you know, again, just like kind of extending it out Um the kind of drawing I had here Of how I thought price might play out. It's just a rough sketch We don't know exactly when it would happen. But the idea would be we have another extension lower Set in a third lower high around that range at around 12k And that's where it again, you can start to get significant accumulation Not only a discount of price from this range So you start getting people who are starting to buy around here Then you really have again some of those big bids that you talked about I was interested that you brought that up Bruce because I've watched that as well on book map I think again roughly in that range you're going to get kind of a big capitulation candle big wick That's when a lot of bids are going to get filled and it provides any ample buy side support to Keep prices from going lower. So, um, yep. Yeah, great great stuff. Um, do you have a moment for a few questions? Yeah, absolutely. We can go through anything. That'd be awesome. Okay. Okay. So, uh, crypto here is asking, um, what is the Co-relationship between bitcoin and the bond market. Are they inversely related? That's a good question So I would say that while there's no absolute direct, um, like correlation inverse correlation The idea is that, um, you know, bitcoin I think as an asset People have a misconstrued narrative here because of what we want to believe bitcoin is a lot of people want to believe that bitcoin Is this kind of risk off asset this digital gold a an alternative hedge to gold And, uh, you know traditional fiat currency that allows us to store value somewhat Outside of the traditional system. It's an asymmetric asset and while that's true It is kind of asymmetric to some degree If we look historically over the long term bitcoin made its greatest appreciation During a decade of central bank liquidity expansion. So it was a stored value in many ways. Um, that helped us to hedge against inflation But it helps us to hedge during the periods of time where there's not inflationary pressures But more specifically monetary expansion, right? So when the, you know, bitcoin reacts much quicker Its investor class is much more aware of central bank liquidity The dilution of money over time the dilution of the value of that currency And therefore are looking to put it in alternative hedges. However, bitcoin on the other hand has been really kind of flat here Um, if you kind of building this kind of zigzag pattern here really since you know, 2017 as we had this blow off top here On logarithmic scale, so we're not expanding like we used to and the reason why I think is because We're starting to see investor capital like, you know, you know dollars in the economy credit Any potential like money that can go towards financial assets It's going towards what's going to give them the best guaranteed yield and that really takes us to talking about bonds, you know US 22 year 20 year yield is at 4% now That's up from I think at the lows um, I know at least for the us 10 year yield it was I think 0.5% um, yeah, the sorry excuse me actually a little bit lower, but let's let's let's not go off the wick here in march 2020 like Around 0.6% so no one was, you know, really touching bonds outside there's one to speculate on the bond price because There is an inverse correlation between bond prices and bond yields bond yields When they go up bond prices go down and vice versa Usually when bond prices are accelerating higher the yield is going lower So the only people who are doing that we're just trading for this the spot value of those bonds Ideally when yields go up on bonds We are going to see bitcoin go lower because bitcoin doesn't pay yields bitcoin is Whether we like to admit it or not It's seen as a speculative asset the vast majority of banks the vast majority of financial participants are not allowed To take money that they're managing in pension funds Or you know different types of retirement accounts Traditional funds or hedge funds are not allowed to put capital and crypto Maybe at most they can put money into stocks like riot Or micro strategy to get that's kind of pseudo exposure to the space But when it comes to like the real spot demand we need to have for bitcoin to move higher It's it's going to be difficult to find because the institutions can't be that support Because treasury yields are so lucrative or they're going towards more defensive plays like equities Which they're legally allowed to put capital towards if on the other hand You know yields start to go down And there's a more risk on mantra regulations start to ease off Then cryptocurrencies can do really well bitcoin does really well the yields are on bonds are going down Makes it more lucrative to start looking for for bitcoin. So hopefully that answers the question There's no direct correlation, but I would say if there is it's an inverse correlation at the end of the day Okay, great. And then crypto is also asking we got two more questions and that's it about the magic trend indicator And you don't have to go into too much detail, but just kind of maybe the overall again He's he's asking instead of saying like we'll go back and watch the recording. Um, maybe you can just Answer he's asking if it's similar to the EMA crossover Superimpose them You know how how you read them or how it is Calculated I think that's a very good question. It's a bit difficult. There's a good description on the indicator that we'll talk It basically uses average true. Um, I think average if I might be missing on the names There's so many indicators out there. I think it utilizes the mixture between the average true range And also the commodity channel index and essentially the commodity channel index was utilized I mean, it's been used for a long period of time I like this indicator because it's been around it's in a bit itself for over Almost three almost coming up on three decades But on top of that as well the core indicators underneath the actual indicator itself It's been on for a long time the commodity channel index Was basically utilized to spot discrepancies Away from the mean like a kind of like deviations or separations from the average price and average ranges is relatively similar in some means But the way that the indicator it kind of functions and utilizes those measurements It's a bit more difficult to explain My major thing that I like about it overall like keeping it really simple is I've seen a lot of different types of indicators In the crypto space that say oh, we've built a custom indicator that you know The trades the crypto space really well for me I always take any indicator that I see and I plug it into the long-term time frames And I look at it across other markets And if it doesn't hold up then I'm not really interested in it at the end of the day For me though the trend balancing indicator has been one of the most consecutive It's one of our biggest ones in our newsletter group that we talk about and it's uh Well, it's not and I'll be able to make any given trade. We do need to have other conditions You know narratives and things like that that can play into it It's really good on these long-term time frames. Just letting you know. Hey when the game is up, you know The good times are over. It's time to get ready for for the downside and also when it's time to get excited again I just pull it back here to the bitcoin chart and to have an indicator that's this consecutive Of course with some small blips like the march 2020 dip we had which was kind of an anomaly across the board This is usually one of the best indicators. I've seen attracting the higher moves It's not perfect at timing tops obviously because you're looking at a monthly time frame So there's a delay, but essentially there is a pivotal point We had a cool member of the community our newsletter come up with a really cool tool That tracks what price would need to get to before we get that flip So that makes the indicator even more useful because sometimes you're kind of wondering with the tm The one confusing element about it is the price can cross it, but it can still be read So this is another additional thing where they they measure the pivot for the indicator. So Yeah, again, I wish I could do a better justice. It's a bit difficult to explain But yeah, those are the two fundamental elements that make up the tm A question on that. Is it the Average true range of the commodity index or is it average true range of bitcoin compared to the price of the commodity index Bitcoin, yeah, okay. Okay Let's see here one more question. Hi nick. Do you reckon that bitcoin will still follow the regular four-year uptrend in this cycle? How high do you expect anticipate And that that's it, but this was a while back. So you might have already answered it, but anyway No, that's that's a great question bruce. Yeah, we didn't talk about too much earlier Um, you know, I did make the case earlier that we were talking about like how this would this would extend out further A lot of people believe we're in the next four-year cycle And I think that this right here is kind of the proof that we likely aren't Because we weren't able to get up towards around 32 33 k where we would have gotten that that change here It shows us that this bear market hasn't gone on for long enough because of the contracting liquidity and that We've we've been through a decade of expansion I think the people that the reason why people look at the four-year cycle is something that is Time-tested because not only did it hold up pretty well over these past couple years But it it's paired with the halving event which is a contraction and the amount of bitcoin that gets issued. So basically the money supply Uh inflation rate of bitcoin drops in half every four years It's it's programmed in and while that that's uh, you know, a really cool thing about bitcoin We know where the cap supply is The halving loses its effect over time and people say what do you mean it? You're it's dropping 50 percent every time, you know, it's it's the halving it must be the same exact consistency That's actually not the case because if you take for example way back in the day when we went from I think is it roughly 50 block 50 bitcoin block rewards in yearly days to 25 bitcoin That's a massive reduction. That's 25 bitcoin less of a capped 21 million coin supply However, if you go a couple halving cycles out and you're essentially getting to a point where I'm just kind of using this as a Mental example, it's probably not what we're going to go from I forget the number at the moment, but if you go from say like, um, you know, five bitcoin per block to 2.5 You're now basically reducing the inflation rate by 2.5 bitcoin every 10 minutes So miners are slowly but steadily over time losing large amounts of relevancy in the crypto space and this is why even as the mining industry has expanded it's not going to be a good industry to be exposed to because You know, they're competing more and more through over a higher hash rate for a small amount of bitcoin Putting aside the mining part of it though is just basically it gets to a point where that halving reduction is redundant When I'm going towards the more bigger question Are there generally more buyers or sellers in the market? If you know the halving of it happens and we start having you know, just 2.5 bitcoin versus 5 bitcoin every You know 10 minutes That's all fine dandy But if satoshi comes back and unloads his wallet and sells a million bitcoin Or we start seeing micro strategy or large stakeholders already existing holders in the ecosystem selling much more The new buyers are coming in then halving event doesn't really matter much and that that's a fundamental reality we need to to keep in check which is that The halving event is just becoming less and less relevant over time And that's why also the multiples on bitcoin with each cycle generally are degrading We a lot of people point out that this bull market wasn't nearly as exciting as the the move we had from say You know late 2015 to december 2017 or the bull market from november 2011 to november 2013 Or the first cycle expansion in 2009 to 2011 which again is really early days But you get the point like it's it's losing its relevancy and that's not me trying to insult bitcoin or anything But it's just math at the end of the day the the mining doesn't matter as much as it used to Excellent interesting stuff Really fascinating. I bet you you're probably going to see a lot of fireside sales of a lot of computer equipment in the near future if if You know bitcoin is dropping but Just speculating on that Yeah, no, I mean it's a it's there's this whole business built around like asic miners and uh, you know That's one thing I bring up, uh, you know about nvidia And a lot of people are really excited about nvidia and to be honest It's one of the few stocks that has got the monthly blue flip and you know, usually I would I would look at this and oh my gosh, this is going to go You know if we were an expansionary period I would look at this and be like all in on nvidia But I have to say you know nvidia is a company This is a good example of like what's going on the stock market All the liquidity is cycled right now into this one of pretty much one of the few plays in the market and I think You know, it's a it's again. It's a telltale sign here That uh With what we're discussing, you know, basically that there there can be these short-term trends and stuff people get really optimistic in the market I think the pe ratio is at 181 Um, and the thing is that you know, a lot of this is betting on ai But at the end of the day the majority of nvidia's business is not just infrastructure GPUs for things like ai it's for gamers You know people who are playing video games and if the consumer isn't strong and the consumer is not buying really expensive GPUs Then nvidia stock will eventually come back and correct once the the trend loses its momentum Reality sets in enough quarterly earnings reports come out and they don't show the growth Then nvidia will correct down quite sharply. Um, but it takes time for these things to happen So my my my point would be like, you know At the end of the day, I wouldn't put too much liquidity to fight these kind of trades and you can see again Turn magic just you know, again, sometimes you get a couple blips here But for the most part this will let you know when to ride the wave And if you kind of zoom out from the weekly to the monthly you get less interruptions You get the broader moves and you can make some serious returns It's a question now of of course knowing how to find those market leaders And I usually like to I had a couple of tips that I just wanted to share with you guys Like I mentioned one of them I didn't write here is look for Stocks or cryptos making 52 week new all-time highs and that kind of plays into momentum While the short term a long term momentum is king at the end of the day Don't try to fight the trade until you see signs that momentum is fading Naked trading is great, you know using support and resistance, but requires strict follow-through When you see momentum stall in another direction like we're seeing now with bitcoin That's a great idea a great idea would be to lean into platforms like bookmap They're going to give you that competitive edge that traditional technical analysis just can't do Also that only use indicators on long-term timeframes I really don't feel the need to use the rsi and mac d or even our our team indicator On short-term timeframes. It's too choppy and that that goes along with just doing short-term trades I think you're much better having a really defined setup on the shorter term timeframes When in doubt zoom out always consider the macro trends and their weight No matter how short of a time frame you're trading on and this again goes into the using long-term timeframes And also one thing we kind of showed here today is utilizing ratios or custom metrics So you know adding stable coin liquidity like we did or looking at dominance metrics between stable coins looking at Custom lists, you know like rather than ignoring per se the exact percentage or Sometimes the digit value that it will give you just looking at whether or not, you know Certain trends are expanding. Are we seeing defensive plays like stable coin liquidity and bitcoin and eth dominating one of the market? Are we seeing all coins taking over more than market? So those are some really cool things that you guys can do and also things like the yield curve inversion You can use these in traditional markets. You can divide your favorite stocks that you're watching by the s and p 500 To the Nasdaq are they outpacing the indices if they're not they're probably not going to be market leaders? So Yeah, I rampant how to get them out there, but as always again Bruce, it's it's such a pleasure, man This is a really great conversation. I appreciate all of you guys as well for the great questions I hope if anything you guys were able to take anything away from it and also as well If there's any other additional questions, I'm happy to answer them quickly as well Uh, no, no, I think I think we're all good. Um, thank you so much nick pleasure And it's good to kind of touch base. It's been a while and in a good good timing actually since you're looking right at these things and Before the whole thing unfolds. Um, so We'll keep an eye on it and and maybe have you again here Soon and and give us more guidance Thank you, Bruce is a pleasure has always been good to see you and uh, have a great day everyone. Thank you for having me Bye