 Welcome traders to this week's live market and trade analysis session with me, Patrick Munnally. It is 1pm. Okay, British summertime and we are going to get going here. Just a quick audio test before I start. If you can hear me and you can see the welcome screen. If you just type a Y into the chat box so I know we are good to go. Testing audio 1, 2, 3. Testing audio 1, 2, 3. A Y in the chat box guys if you can hear me and you can see the welcome screen. Thanks very much. Okay, let's get started but before we do as always want to add here to the risk disclaimer. I would like to say that I am most pertinent for today's presentation the fact that the views and opinions expressed by me are solely mine they're not indicative or representative of those held by Tickman UK or Tickmail Europe limit it. For those of you here for the first time a brief introduction to myself. I graduated from university. I joined a city PLC consulting firm. I ultimately left with some colleagues and went on to successfully co found an exit a consulting startup focused on C suite executive search for technology businesses. Essentially I had a front row seat to the dot com bubble, witnessing people make and lose a fortune in the market sometimes quite literally overnight. So I decided to explore my curiosity for markets with some capital to play with and some time on my hands. I started day training the S&P 500 or probably more appropriately at that stage day gambling. After some early beginners luck I wrapped up some pretty solid gains however, as is often the case, my beginners luck run out and as market phase changed, I basically began to average down into losing positions. And I experienced a significant six figure hit to my personal capital. So that was a gut wrenching and sobering experiences and understatement. I had to stand back and figure out if it was feasible for me to make a living from the markets. So I decided to get serious about trading and sought out a mentor with an excellent trading track records. So trading with my mental for a period of 18 months was a time during which I asked not just my technical game in terms of researching developing extensively back and forward testing strategies that crucially sees my personality, all of which were underpinned by a rigorous risk management approach. Most importantly during this period of mentorship, I significantly developed my mental game and probably most importantly of all I made the watershed shift from being a highly goal oriented individual focused on financial gains to becoming purely process oriented. Well, it means I had to step back and start set back and stop focusing solely on what I could make from the markets and start focusing more on managing my mindset to allow me to consistently execute my trading strategy, oftentimes in the face of negative feedback from the markets in the form of losing trades. But once you become process orientated and you have a professional trading mindset and you understand the true nature of trading being a numbers game in which you're really playing the probabilities, you lose your investment and that hellish emotional rollercoaster of living and dying by the outcomes of individual trades so I'm no longer concerned with the outcome of individual trades, or even a small string of trades, my focus is on the next hundred trades, because if I focus on excellence in execution, my edge will demonstrate itself over an extended series of outcomes. My multi strategy approach has delivered profitable annual returns since 2008 since 2013 I've also been managing investor capital through a managed account service, again delivering annual positive returns and currently responsible for managing a multimillion dollar portfolio. Since 2010 I've also entered hundreds of private traders of all experience levels from complete novices to former CME floor traders in developing the technical and mental skills to read consistent returns from the markets. In addition to my fund management and mentoring I'm also a resident market expert exclusively providing market and trade analysis to tickmail clients. I provide an in depth daily market outlook breaking down the fundamental and technical drivers for the trading day ahead. I also provide daily technical trade setup videos, which I share through the tickmail trading view account and I'll post a link for those who are interested in following those at the end of today's session. I also run tickmills Emily strategy Facebook group where I post a daily trade plan pre market trading plan for the cash S&P 500 trading session. I give my bias for the day in the specific action areas where I'm looking to engage the market. These pre market plans have delivered over 3000 points of profit since we launched the group last April. The second tickmail strategy group I run is for traders who really want to take their trading to the next level tickmail futures trading telegram group is a real time environment. We're on a daily basis I share in depth insights analysis and real time trades. I also provide live commentary during the opening hour of the cash trading session in New York. Whereas traders can essentially see in real time how I dissect the market and identify asymmetric trading opportunities. These sessions act as a platform helping traders to develop a professional consistent approach to managing the markets and most importantly the mental mind games that must be mastered to make it as a profitable market operator. Okay so that gives you a flavor of where I'm coming from let's jump into today's material. Today we're going to look at higher time frame charts there have been some interesting developments in the markets obviously we have that CPI print come in yesterday softer than expected, which led to a major rally in terms of risk assets. So we're going to look at the next key inflection points where I see the next decent trading opportunities coming off these higher time frame charts so starting with the S&P 500. I'm using the E-mini futures contract. And what I'm tracking now is a five wave sequence that I believe is developing. The close at or just above that 4210 level yesterday was pivotal to suggest that we are in an impulsive move to the outside for now. What I'm looking for now is as we hold 4190 to 4180 as support, I'm looking for price to extend up to test 4270. There I'm watching for bearish momentum divergence and you can track that on intraday time frames but for the purposes of today's presentation I'm showing it on the higher time frame but what I'm looking for is 4270 to act as resistance. I will be looking to fade this current leg to the upside in and around those levels and I'll be looking for a three wave corrected move to ultimately pull back to give us a pullback similar in scope and scales that way to corrective moves so that would take us back into test the 4040 level on the downside from there I'll be looking to reengage on the long side looking for a minimum five equals one extension to the upside. Obviously want to pay close attention to how we trade at the trend line 42 comes in there about 4295 but if we get through there I'll be looking for a move up to 4330s. And then from there again I'll be watching for momentum divergence to develop as we complete this sequence and then obviously looking for a minimum three wave corrected move. And certainly we'll be thinking about move back down to test that potential way for low 4040 4050. NASDAQ similar idea developing here we are looking we've actually taken out the trend line resistance here on the NASDAQ so shown some relative strength. What I'll be looking for now is a test of the trend line resistance coming in at 13,670 but weekly projected range resistance 13,710 again from there watching for bearish reversal patterns, and I'll be looking for a three wave corrected move similar in scope and scale to this wave to correction so I'll put us back down into 12,760 area weekly projected range support from there to engage on the long side again looking for a fifth wave extension. I'm targeting a five equals 13,900, we also got this high volume there just about 14,116 so that's going to be my target zone for the wave five extension, and then we'll be looking for another corrected move to the downside in terms of the NASDAQ Dow Jones. So what I'm looking for here is a move up now to ideally test this trend line resistance and played here so 33,850 to 33,900 is the target zone. There again, want to see some momentum divergence in play, you can look on the four hour or the hourly timeframe to get confirmation of that but what I'm ultimately looking for then is a way for pullback which should see us test into the 32,400 area and then from there we're looking for a five equals one when I refer to five equals one what I'm talking about is a minimum upside objective of equal to that and scope and scale of the wave one move. So that would give us this type of pattern here. So like I say 32,140 area, and then we're looking for a minimum fifth wave extension, 34,224 and similar to the NASDAQ we do have that high volume know that often acts as a magnet above at 34,650 and then from there I'll be looking for a deeper move to develop. Russell has actually been the relative strength leader out of all the US equity indexes, the Russell tracking the small caps there. So what I'm looking for here is a test of the high volume mode and I'm looking for price to fail or fade into this 2000 or 2010 level, what's the various reversal patterns. I'm looking for that wave to corrective move to be replicated. Oftentimes you'll get where we have a wave to that is is more of a consolidation move took a bit of time to develop. You might see the way for move happen much faster it could be more of a spike in the move so it might be that we pull back into this 1890 and then we don't get the consolidation here we just shoot up into our way five objective five equals one. And then from there, we'll be watching for bearish reversal patterns again to play for a deeper corrective move and certainly I'll be thinking about a retest of this pitchfork support into those 1870s got high volume mode there 1880 DAX. So looking for the DAX here to extend into its trend line resistance weekly projected range resistance 13,978 then we also have this high volume note for just about 14,000. So again, we watch for this momentum divergence to be maintained here so we look for price to make a new eye. We don't want to see a new high in terms of the psych indicator here. And then we look for that three way corrective move equal in scope and scale to that way to low, and then we'll be looking for a fifth wave extension before once again, looking again on the short side. So the Nikkei looking now for a test of trend channel resistance 28,560 just take out the stops here above the range resistance will be an ideal move, and then as long as we remain tame, negative momentum divergence, we look for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side and I'm looking for a move back into test the pivot here and the ascending trend line support 27,240s before looking for the next leg to the upside. We're talking 29,370, which is the weekly equality objective versus the current swing structure. To improve the FX based dollar index dollar. After the CPI obviously yesterday and the markets sensing that we might have a peak inflation in play now. I'm looking for the dollar index to test one or two sixties, which is the equality objective versus this swing structure. So I've been watching for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side and certainly thinking about retest of the high volume area here 106 30s, and then we may do a broader double correction. But for now, any move back into test the underside of this channel, and that high volume node 106 30s, that's going to be an opportunity to engage on the short side, and we're looking for a 10260 test. So again, potential here for a double corrective move. I'm anticipating that when we get up and test this equality objective 104 10 to 104 20. I know I see us pulling back there from that area, as long as we maintain momentum divergence here, look for a pullback to a minimum of the pivot back down to the 100 and 90, which is our B wave low at this stage. So if we take that out and we get a close through there, then I'm looking for retest of cycle lows, and ultimately I want to see a test of the years three 97 sixties. But what I would say is that by the if this trade sets up and plays out certainly by the time we get back into that pivot area you want either to be risk free or take half your position off etc. So I do see the potential for a double correction to test the high volume nodes here 105 30s as a potential scenario so again if you think about what I was just talking about with the dollar index bit more of a complex corrective pattern developing. That's likely to play out in a similar fashion in the euro obviously the inverse euro being the highest percentage contributor to the dollar index so it could get a little bit more complicated in terms of trade scenario. So as we head into the back end of August here with respect to some of these effects major sterling. I look for any break now in sterling through the 123 area, I would be engaged on the long side and I've got a target now and a quality objective 125 50s. At this stage, we need to see a loss of the pivot here at 120 to start to think about shorts again, but ultimately I am still looking for that 115 tests. In terms of sterling on the downside. So these are just I'm just identifying where the corrective moves are likely to play out now in terms of these effects majors. Sorry, dollar yen talked about this last week fading the 135 50s. We've got that rejection yesterday so I've been looking now break through the prior loads 130 30s, and we've got an equality objective now down to 126 80s, which becomes our down side target in terms of dollar yen euro yen. I'm looking in terms of the euro yen any test into 136 sorry 139 sixties, I want to look for opportunities to short the euro yen, and I'm looking for a test down into monthly projected rain sport 131 30s as downside objective at this stage, really we would need to see a close through 142 30s to suggest the downside is done that this correction sufficient and we're heading to to make new highs in terms of the euro yen. Stirling and I am looking the idea for a test of the trend channel support monthly projected rain sport 157 80s. That will be an area of paying close attention to as, as we set up then the potential next leg to the upside in terms of sterling yen, and what I've been looking for there. If we're again using that minimum five equals one objective, we go back down here and we use this as our wave one move. And we overlay here. So we're looking for a 170 test there in terms of. In terms of sterling yen. With me guys just just a position on the minute. Sorry about that. Let's take a look at the Ozzie and Ozzie and it's got an interesting pattern here developing we have got a potential triangle so there are a couple of areas and paying close attention to in terms of the Ozzie and any testing to the trend line resistance here if we get a bearish reversal pattern. I've been looking to engage on the short side. So we do have that test of trial will support 1941 forties, but we do have an equality objective unchecked here at the 1930 area at this stage. Only a close back through the potential be wave high or the X wave of W wave here. And I'm looking for a move up into 103 90s is the target I have here and that's an equality objective versus this weekly swing structure in terms of the Ozzie and the ideal scenario for me would be a move down into test the weekly trend months for 87 70s. And again watching the bullish reversal patterns there to engage on the long side. Similar type of well slightly different here we've got the potential for an ending diagonal pattern here. So when you move into the trend line support. If we get bullish reversal patterns there I've been looking to engage on the long side, looking for a test then and a failure at 108 20s. And also is the yearly are three, the ideal scenario would be a break through the trend line support here and a test of 99, which is the equality objective versus the current swing structure. And once again I've been looking for bullish reversal patterns then to engage on the long side, and we would be looking for that test of the yearly are three as our upside objective. Ozzie. As I said, developing here in the Ozzie, I am looking for a move now into the high volume modes 71 80s to 72 20s. I watch for bearish reversal patterns there to engage on the short side, looking for a move back down we've got a potential for developing here back down into this 68 60s from there and look for bullish reversal patterns, and I'm targeting a test of the weekly trend line resistance 74 50s as the upside objective for that move so some decent two way trading opportunities developing in these commodity effects we've also got similar scenario in the key we're here, looking for us now to test 65 the 65 level watch for price to fail there back into the high volume mode, and again looking for this double corrective move to potentially play out and takes up into the 66 70s. We also have let's bring in this weekly trend line resistance 67 50s, and that's that high volume mode there so some decent upside targets to play for their gold still holding long gold positions. And this trade is starting to develop quite nicely now so what I'm looking for now in gold is. You could make another new high here into the high volume modes 1830s and then I'm looking for a three wave corrective move to engage again on the long side we've got a gap here 1750s would be a nice nice target so and then I'm looking for another leg of upside, at least maybe see moved into that 1900 level. So again, I'm always thinking in terms of equality and symmetry market so that you can see that we that would be equal in scope and scale to that first leg that would complete potentially an ABC, but as we know, every impulse move in the markets have a new trend starts potentially as a correction and ABC moves so once we get here, if the pullbacks remain supported, it could be that we are going to to retest highs in terms of gold became just shy of the quality objective back $10, but the response we're seeing so far is certainly impulsive. And so I'm looking to add to the positions in gold, similar scenario in silver, not quite as impulsive as gold but we did actually see 1440 a quality objective. And so I'm looking now, let me draw this in you can, so I can see clearly on the daily timeframe, a 12345 select suggests that the next move will be corrective, and we will be looking to, I haven't got these positions on at the moment but I'm going to be looking to get something going here so ideally we test up into weekly projected range resistance here 21 20s, and then I'm looking for any move back into this way for low here 1940 to engage on the long side and certainly looking at this high volume loads up to the 2310 area as my targets next upside objective crude oil came just shy. Well, I mean, I say just like 86 30s we were looking for the test, 87 low. So far, and this doesn't look as impulsive as the moves we're seeing in the metals. But what I'll be watching for is the first rotation lower on the four hour timeframe should find support in around the 90 handles. So this is an opportunity to engage on the long side target initially is going to be a move up to the high volume mode one or two, in terms of crude oil, or if we get rejected here from the other side of this prior bear flag scenario. Let's just remove this and I'll show you I'm thinking. If this is correct is let's say this is a three wave move that terminates into the 9380 and then get a last push into our target so and then again I'll be looking on the long side, and we look for a one or two test in terms of crude oil. Let's round them out here with the cryptos Bitcoin. I'm looking for a test of the trend channel resistance 27,300 30s from there and watching the bearish reversal patterns. And as those of you who are here on a weekly basis now I'm looking for a 12,000 tests in terms of Bitcoin and then from there I could get meaningfully interested in the cryptos, or alternatively, if we can get a break off the down trend channel, then that would suggest that we've got an impossible developing will be looking to play pullbacks but for now I'm watching very clear, definitely how we trade into this trend channel resistance. In a similar scenario with either I'm looking for a test of 2220 from their watch for bearish reversal patterns to engage on the short side, and we have an 851 equality objective in terms of ether, and I'm going to round things out this week looking at Apple, because we are getting to a pretty interesting point here in terms of Apple, Apple today became the biggest company to have the largest percentage contribution to the S&P 500 so if the current action we're seeing in these markets is potentially a bear market rally, then we'll be looking for Apple to fade into 174 and we'll be playing for a minimum three-way corrective move back down to midpoint of the channel at 150. So those are the charts that I'm watching, the areas of interest, for me at the moment the move we're seeing in risk sentiment remains a potential bear market rally but we are going to be testing some pretty interesting areas in the coming weeks and we'll see how the markets respond. What I'm going to do now is open up for any questions. If you've got a question or you've got a pair you'd like me to take a look at or an instrument you want to take a look at that I haven't covered in my presentation, you can type that into the chat box. I'm going to post the link for the Facebook group you just request access to get my daily trade plan. From there I will also post for you the sick mill trading view account where you can track my trade ideas and trading opportunities on a daily basis through the videos that I post there. That's in there as well. Questions so does anyone have a question Roy I can see you've raised your hand but I can't see a question. You want to type into the chat box if so now's the time to do it. Okay, can't see any questions coming through at this point so I'm going to presume I've done a reasonable job of explaining what it is. I'm looking at where I see the opportunities developing in coming sessions. As always traders plan the trade trade the plan the most importantly manage all this until next week. Thanks very much. Apologies that won't actually be a live session next week. I'm on vacation next week, so it'll be in two weeks time. Thanks very much everyone and I hope this helps.