 This is covering the spread part of the Fandall podcast network What a fun day to be a sports fan today Everything blowing up all because of one a reddit post will have this almost the favorite to be the first overall pick things have Stabilized a bit since then but what better time to break down the NFL draft and get you ready with some bets that Dr Ed Fang likes based on the odds over at Fandall sportsbook right now This is covering the spread right here on the Fandall podcast network and number fire calm My name is Jim Saunders. I'm a senior writer and analyst for a number fire joined here as mentioned by Dr Ed thing you can find his work at the power ink comm and check out Ed on Twitter at the power I can add have you fired up your ready accounts to stay up to date on all the latest NFL draft rumors It's really comedy central here this morning on the NFL draft I think it's actually kind of funny that people like me will read something that Daniel Jeremiah writes on NFL comm and that will strongly influence bets and the market and he certainly influences the market I think there's some comedy in that. I think it works, which is why I do it, but there's some real comedy Moving markets and you can you can see the markets and bounce back So it's not like, you know, and and I don't think it wasn't a situation in which this information Gave you a better price. It's not like you could have bet Bryce young minus 300 because of this But it's still pretty comical that this little reddit thread Move some markets today. It's that's a pretty high comedy. Yeah in case you missed it There was a post on reddit this morning saying that will levis was telling family and friends He was going to go first overall Carolina was telling him that he would go first overall and as a result Levis shortened to I think I saw it as short as five to one at Fandle But like you mentioned young never really lengthen much. He was minus 1200 Briefly got down to minus 900 I think is the shortest he got to at Fandle and then are the longest he got to he's back out to 14 Minus 1400 and levis is back out to 8 to 1 so it bounced all over the place We're gonna talk about that market talk about whether we're still confident young goes first What to read of levis's stock and also talk about takeaways from Jeremiah You mentioned Peter Schreger and guys who have dumped out some news tidbits here over the past couple of days But first a reminder to make sure you're subscribed to covering the spread wherever you get your podcast tomorrow talking some golf Of Brandon Godula, but also talking NBA playoffs that'll be here Kentucky derby stuff coming up next week We'll talk NFL win totals as well all right here in the same beat So go search for covering the spread wherever you get your podcast hit subscribe and if you like what you hear Leave us a five-star rating as well The NBA playoffs are here and you can get it in the action right from first tip with Fandle right now All customers can get a no sweat same game parley every weekend when you bet the NBA playoffs That's right. 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I know I think DraftKings has him at minus 700 or so So it's a bit better number there, but what's your read on this market given all the weird levus stuff from this morning? I Don't think there's really anything in that reddit post if you look at it closely Jim It actually doesn't say anything about it being the number one first overall pick so maybe the You know the poster is referring to the 39th pick that Carolina has in the second round and it would definitely take We'll love us with that pick He unfortunately probably doesn't get there So yeah, no, I don't put too much stock in it. I think to any stock into it Yeah, other thing too is going back to that reddit post and they had said later that Carolina had told Bryce young they would not be drafting him and so he canceled all his visits which Doesn't make sense doesn't pass the sniff test. So I Don't quite understand that part of it And I think the other thing too here is if we were so confident that Levis would go number one overall I think you would have seen young shorten for the second overall pick because Houston's been tied to him this entire time And if he've dropped to number two They would take him but young is nine to one to go second overall and again Levis is eight to one So it's kind of those are somewhat correlated markets, but I think the fact that we didn't see more movement there tells me I Mean that you can see stuff leak on reddit at times. I just don't think this is one of those scenarios For sure, and you have Levis at eight to one to be the number one. He's the favorite at number two I think he's the favorite at number four. I added up the implied probabilities yesterday, and I got some absurdly large number This is actually why it's fun and profitable bet the NFL draft Yeah, markets are actually a tightly correlated, but The books don't always do the best job You know working out those correlations one mark one market moves Making sure you move the other market. So yeah, it makes it fun. It definitely does so with Levis It's not just this right of post We also there was a lot of talk this weekend that the Colts prefer Levis and I think that's a big part of why You see the odds shortening for the number two overall pick because the Texans have that pick and there's been Buzz honestly since the senior bowl that they don't want a quarterback So It's a bit odd to see Levis there as you mentioned He is the favorite to go forth overall as well plus 130 in general Ed We've seen a lot of buzz around Levis. Let's ignore the reddit post I think we can push that off to the side fully, but look at the more broad sentiment Do you buy into the Levis steam or do you think this is the Colts throwing a smoke screen? It's no one trades up to get CJ Stroud in front of them or something like that I have no idea what I know is that a lot of people agree that No one knows what's gonna happen with the second overall pick It's quite possible that Houston doesn't know what they're gonna do with that second overall pick And I think that's that's we don't know what's gonna happen there We don't know what's gonna happen at three whether anyone's gonna trade up to try to get a quarterback And so there's a and you know, and I think from what I've heard, you know, Indy probably wants to let us It for right. So that's probably I mean, that's I think that's been the case for a while so Yeah, I mean, I think there's a lot of you know, there's a lot of question marks there and then the you know, the The conversation kind of changes once you get the five because there's different needs for Seattle and then Detroit at six and then you can start playing the Jalen Carter game there, but I'm sorry, I forget exactly what you asked me Just talking about the movement we seen towards him ignoring the reddit post. Yeah I'm really not sure what to make of this. Oh, that's the other thing, you know, love this has been the favorite I mean, I think he was like minus 130 to be the second pick, right? There's not a single one of the sharp mocks that I Look at that had him as the number two pick Yeah It's pretty late in the game Like obviously not all of them are like the most up-to-date because I'm still tracking what you know People said a little bit earlier and and you know the way I do this is it's not like I just you know, I just take it You know, I kind of know who behind every draft Yeah, I know who is behind every mock draft what their information is and I try to go from there So they're they're not all weighted equally in my mind when I when I make that's but it Zero zero of those had will have to number two So, you know, I think the game is the kind of think through that and what are the possibilities and How can you potentially? Make some money bets because we buy into Daniel Jeremiah over random reddit user whose account was created six days ago I think that makes a lot of sense now You mentioned that a lot of the sharp mocks haven't had Levus going second overall But there was a lot of news that came out Monday morning It was like it was a scheduled post everything goes up right at 8 o'clock in the morning Where you've got Dana Jeremiah's final top 150 Peter Schreger who tends to be pretty reliable on this stuff Releasing his top five takeaways as well when you parse through all the data from Monday ad What were your biggest takeaways from everything that you saw? Right. I mean for sure the uncertainty at the number to pick I think it very well could be Will Anderson very good. Well could be Tyree Wilson. I I actually have Tyree Wilson a plus 650 from a long time ago and I It's either him or will Anderson to be the first even sorry Tyree Wilson plus 650 to be the first defensive player taken You can get will Anderson plus 100 actually I just bet it plus 100 to be the first defensive player taken I have decided to lock in a profit there Because we really don't again We don't know what's gonna happen with number two and then the only I really stuck out about Schreger was that he said Jaylen Carter will not drop beyond six and When you look at the sharp mocks, it is literally the NFL calm guys versus everyone else all the NFL calm guys have Jaylen Carter at five to Seattle or six to Detroit You need some pretty juicy numbers for Carter to go to five at five and six, you know I think I wrote down plus 500 this morning. I don't think that's still available for the number five pick number six There might be a plus 400 still available He may slip, but I think that's probably good enough information for me to at least put a little bit down on Jaylen Carter at five and six Yeah, right now Carter is four to one to go sixth overall and he is plus 350 to go fifth overall going back to the Tyree Wilson thing I know Michael Lombardi is probably not on your list of like the guys you tend to put the most stock in but He's actually a pretty good hit rate with regards to NFL draft stuff And he's been talking about Tyree Wilson going second overall for a pretty long time now He was also on the bandwagon of the Texans not taking a quarterback with that pick So I think that you getting Tyree Wilson a plus 650 to be the first defensive player. That's a tremendous number Do you think that there's still value in plus 250 for him to go second overall because honestly? given the dynamics for that second overall pick where The most likely trade-down candidate is within the same division might not want to trade in within that same division to give them a quarterback You might not want to trade down to seven like with the Raiders or whatever because it might miss the autumn those those linemen I think that the Wilson plus 250 to go second overall does Does interest me now with you having a plus 650 for first defensive player? I wouldn't take that but if you didn't have that in your pocket. Would you have any interest in that number? I? Think so. I mean I just I Think you can flip a coin or a four-sided coin with this There are some people that strongly believe that CJ Strat is out of the running to be number two because Houston doesn't like them For whatever reason that may be true. That's possibly true. I don't know Tyree Wilson plus 250 will Anderson plus 320 Yeah, I definitely definitely bet that I would consider yeah But I think that just in general checking out everything that came out Monday from people. We trust a lot with that regard Very worthwhile in general. It's in the ad talks a lot about it's knowing who you trust and the people we trust Put a lot of stuff out in the world Yesterday now you talk a lot at about betting markets when their first post and fandom was one of the last books to post Draft position over unders they they're still somewhat fresh I would say later than other books when you look at those right now anything stand out to you with where they currently sit Yeah, I mean for sure. Let me go one of the things that I liked is Dalton Dalton concade under 24 and a half There's a lot of things when you look at either sharp max or you look at grinding the mocks Which is more of an aggregate of a lot of mock drafts. It all points to concade going before the 25th pick and it is I think you get a better number over a DK but don't think it is kind of an athletic freak Daniels Jeremiah has been talking about them for a while and This is a market that like you said is new and I think you can get some value here Yeah, I like don't think he'd under 24 and a half I was looking at Jeremiah's top 150 yesterday and he has concade. I think ninth overall. Yeah in terms of like overall Yeah, and then you think about the teams picking before 24 you have a lot of teams that need past catcher I don't think it may be it's not so tight end, but like they need past catchers and in this draft Concade could probably be I think that it was Nate ties to the athletic called concade One of the better past catchers in the draft like receiver or tight end So if you need a past catcher and a lot of teams before 24 do or before 25 do I think that does make a lot of sense now with concade Looking at the NFL draft props as far as be the top draft pick by position I think that you're picking the right market for concade under 24 and a half because there's a good chance we see both concade and Michael may or go pretty early on the draft first tight end drafted mayors minus 160 Concade is plus 125 which means this market is juiced up a lot as they all are for sure I think that I'd rather go with concade under 24 and a half personally a minus 122 versus taking him over mayor at plus 125 Do you agree with that as well? Yeah, for sure Yeah, so I think that's the best way to bet Concade There's a lot of buzz about Sam Laporta potential moving up But it doesn't sound like he will be in the discussion for the first tight end drafted So that's the positional props or the the draft position props One of the one we talked here about here on the show a couple weeks ago Ed was over four and a half quarterbacks to go in the first round at the time that was plus 144 That is no longer the case the number of quarterbacks taking the first round Over four and a half is minus 215 So actually want to ask you a quick caveat here You got this a plus 144 The under is now plus 158 we talked about hedging before a lot and I tend to not like it personally because it cuts into Bets where I get a lot of closing line value and I don't want to undercut my best bets But so I I tend to not want to do this But you have plus 144 in your pocket Would you consider adding under four and a half plus 158 is a hedge or are you gonna stand pat and take the good closing line value? No, I'm gonna take the closing line value I mean this all comes down to Henin Hooker and he were plus 100 over the weekend to be a first-round pick and Now he's minus 200 which pretty much agrees with this I guess I mean this is actually a way to bet I mean if you don't think hooker is gonna go in the first round then this is the way to bet that right because there Is actually no there's no market for not being a first-round pick So, yeah, I think I mean I like this position. I'm gonna I'm gonna hang tight with this and But yeah, this is you know Under four and a half QB is a way to bet Henden Hooker not a first-round pick Yeah, so we got us you got us good value there And any other spots where you see value in these markets where the over under positions drafted in the first round Yeah, I mean in five Nogget Saturday, I definitely had over four no over five and a half offensive linemen Juden's it thought that number should be minus nine hundred I think Man, I don't know if I caught it one of those minus three thirty at DK I think I think I ended up being minus three eighty or something like that It is since moved to six and a half pretty much even odds So that's gone I actually do see a lot of linemen kind of at the later Later ends of the first round of some of these sharp mocks that I'm looking at but Yeah, so that was another one it's gone now, but Yeah, listen to Drew Drew's good shocker Breaking news everyone involved check out drew on Twitter at well under short cap or that market currently right now Over six and a half on some offensive line in the first round is minus one away under is minus one 22 But it does sound like with what I was saying, you know given the lack of Receivers that could go in the first round all that stuff I think that the six and a half number is probably where it should have been the whole time now. Let's talk here about Positions where the first player drafted is far from decided we talked about the mayor one versus concave Sounds like we like the concave under versus that one But there are a lot of other ones and Ed you've talked a lot about how you like this market because we can a lot of Times have a decent amount of certainty and who will go first overall We don't have the odds reflecting that certainty right now So when you look at the first player drafted by position anything you like in those markets right now? Yeah, I haven't made this bet and I might not depending on what people say from here until Thursday But I am looking at the first offensive linemen Skoransky and Paris Johnson will big 10 competition there. Oh Man that lengthened since this morning So it looks like Paris if Paris Johnson is gonna go first. It's likely seventh to the Raiders and He's he's way ahead of Skoransky there If that doesn't happen and the Raiders pick a cornerback, which I actually have some bet on Then it looks like Skoransky is much more likely to be the 10th pick to Philadelphia So I'm trying to figure out what the sharp mocks are gonna say about that as we kind of head into that That's something I'm keeping an eye on there potentially could be a lot of value in Skoransky there He'll have to take your Northwestern hat there As he as he walks up to the stage, but not one of that I bet but something I'm keeping an eye on Yeah, right now Paris Johnson is minus 250 Skoransky is plus 250 Darnell right 8 to 1 Broderick Jones 16 to 1 and I think the Paris Johnson movement is a result of there was a report today that Kyler Murray is vouched for Paris Johnson and wants him on the team and There has been a lot of talk recently about how the Cardinals if they are able to trade down Would want an offensive lineman to help, you know protect Kyler So I think that I'm guessing this is correlated to that where they're kind of connecting the dots on Maybe if the Cardinals are able to trade down they would go Paris Johnson and potentially That would be a situation where we could see that happening That's interesting. How does he know Paris Johnson? What's the I think that he just wants a tackle I Think that that's what it is But I think that he is he is advocated for him in terms of wanting protection the building It's not like they're actually giving Kyler Murray a voice here Johnson's down to plus 350 To be the third overall pick that would assume the Cardinals can't get out of it So I think that's the right there. That's kind of insane. Yeah I mean because that would be really interesting right because you can certainly right I mean the ideal situation for Arizona is that long the Vegas wants to trade off draft and Anthony Richardson Or whatever quarterbacks available. They can go down to seven. They can get Paris Johnson there But the markets are actually saying they might just take them with the third pick, right? And that's probably where that's for sure where that's coming from I was looking around to see if there was a Cardinals specific prop like so I could take the number out of it And you know account for the fact they might trade down. I don't see any Cardinals specific markets of like Position the first draft pick. I think that's where I'd want to go is to be an offensive lineman I think that that'd be where I want to look yeah for sure I mean Fandall doesn't post those team specific markets for like the top 10, right? Yeah, they just let the They just let the that number pick market be that Definitely check elsewhere because I think some of the other Sports books do have it and I do think that like the the drumbeat of Paris Johnson to the Cardinals has been picking up steam and I think that it's from people I tend to tend to trust so I would try to find ways to Leverage that potentially and see what you can find there anything else you want to mention as far as the draft goes Ed before we get Thursday net underway No, not really. I mean so far it's been a pretty good Draft betting for me. Yeah, I had will levis over seven and a half which is Dead But that that's basically the only that that hasn't moved my way I mean not not the ones that I've talked about today, but yeah, the rest of them Have have moved my way. So yeah, I'm pretty excited for Thursday to come and Yeah, actually, I mean, I do think there's probably gonna be some more value over the next couple days we get these final mocks from from a lot of sharp people and Hopefully there's even more value to be found if people want to sweat with you with you What's your what's your biggest rooting interest right now as far as financially for Thursday night? Well, is it the four and a half quarterbacks one or? Anything else I mean, I don't have anything particularly big Yeah So, yeah, I mean it's kind of spread out over eight ten bets and probably more I've definitely I've been saving these four members of my site. So you can check that out at power rank calm There will definitely be more tomorrow And yeah All right best on Thursday as Ed mentioned check out all that stuff over at the power rank calm sign up for five Nugget Saturday to get ahead of the the markets moving like they do with the offensive lineman one not just for that But also for plenty of other things as well I can find Ed on Twitter at the power rink and check out the stuff at the power rink calm Ed I appreciate you swinging by as always talk and spend a felt draft It's been a fun season once again and good luck to you on Thursday night with all your bets Thanks so much Jim. Alrighty check out Ed on Twitter at the power rink I am on Twitter at Jim son is want to thank you all for tuning in back once again tomorrow talking about the PGA tour at the Mexico Open and it's maybe a plow should be a lot of fun We'll talk to you then this has been covering this spread right here on the fan duel podcast network