 Welcome traders to another tickmail weekly market outlook for week commencing Monday the 25th of July with me Patrick Munnally. Okay, let's jump into the data for the week starting in the US Monday we get June Chicago Fed activity index conditions of week and materially across the US as evidence by deteriorating regional surveys because we'll also get the July Dallas Fed index last time we've got a negative 17.7 Actually looking for a negative 22 print this time I think it's a Tuesday May FH a house prices 1.6% versus 1.6% last time our pricing mentioned is set to slow obviously as rate height starts to take effect We also get may S&PCS home price index looking for 1.6% print July consumer confidence index last time 98.7 looking for a 96.4 Inflation concerns are starting to weigh on consumer confidence. We also get the July Richmond Fed index looking for a negative 14 Manufacturing outlook clouded by labor and material shortages We ran out Tuesday with new home sales looking for a negative 3.4% versus the positive 10.7% last time the sales weakening on construction headwinds and affordability Heading into Wednesday key day really we get June wholesale inventories inventory levels very considerably across the economy at the moment We also get general goods orders looking for a negative 0.5% print there businesses are still battling supply issues And then we get June home Sales pending demand is cooling amid these higher rates and then talking about rates We also get the all-important FOMC policy decision Looking for a 75 basis point height which appears to be pretty well telegraph now that would take rates to 2.375% In the US the real focus is going to be on the the risks around the economic improvements in the coming quarters And heading into Thursday We get Q2 GDP Annualized in the US gross domestic product last time negative 1.6 percent looking for a Positive 0.5 percent print here second consecutive negative quarter Could be in the cards though as some market participants are pricing in a negative 0.5 percent print for Thursday We also get initial jobless games. They started to creep up a bit 251k last week So keeping a close eye on those as they are just drifting higher now from those historic lows We also get the July, Kansas City Fed Index manufacturing a game and looking increasingly for agile Then rounding out the week next week in the US we get the Employment cost index looking for a 1.1% print there tight labor market supporting Robust wage growth. We also get June personal income looking for a 0.5 percent there As purchasing power is an ongoing concern as households it households start to run down their savings June personal spending should come in around 0.8 percent And then we get the June PCE deflator last time 0.6 percent looking for a 0.9 percent print PCE inflation Consolidating at high levels, but as many are hoping it should Gradually fall as price pressures abate in the second half of 2022 we also get July Chicago PMI looking for 56.2 there supply issues again an ongoing concern We ran out a week with University of Michigan sentiment looking for a 51.1 Cent 51.1 print there. That's the final inflation concerns obviously weighing heavily on sentiment So from a technical perspective the dollar index Pull back continues to pull back from that 10870 resistance so that we highlighted A couple of weeks ago So we're now looking for three wave corrective move to ideally test into this 105 50 ascending trend line support From there we'll watch with bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side Tulting move up for the next upside objective 110 from there once again be watching the bearish reversal patterns to be engaged on the short side looking for another leg More protracted pull back into that weekly 104 test Is what I am eyeing at this stage. It would take a closing breach of this trend line support at the 105 50 to suggest a potential for more meaningful high in place And then certainly be looking about 104 and potentially back into the base there at 101 20s moving to the eurozone In terms of data next week. It's uh, it's a sparse calendar Thursday we get july economic confidence looking for 101 versus a 104 last time out Inflation and energy security concerns are weighing heavily on european confidence consumer confidence is expected to come in week as well Then we ran out the week with july cpi Same year over year looking for 8.8 percent inflation pressures are broadening quite notably now We also get second quarter gdp prints Looking for a 0.2 percent growth is stalling and set to Continue to stall over the remainder of 2022 and that rounds out the data in terms of eurozone next week So the euro's likely to take its key from the dollar index and how the dollar responds to the fomc I would ideally like to see the euro make a new low next week trading into We want to sorry the 98 97 area that sets up I'm going to be watching for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side Looking for a move back into that 103 50 This stage would take a close through 104 50 to suggest that we do actually have a more meaningful low in place here And then we'd be looking for a move up to test the next resistance. So up to 107 75 In the uk obviously we have the ongoing political drama around who will be the next prime minister and leader of the conservative party And those debates will start to heat up in terms of data next week It's a light calendar. It's focused on the end of the week thursday july and nationwide house prices Demand is continuing to soften as rate heights take effect and net mortgage lending Also expecting to come in weak as rising rates and the slowing economy will begin to weigh on lending so from a technical perspective whilst we hold 121 30 120 150 resistance I'm looking for another leg to the downside and ideally a test into I must be projected great support of that 115 area from there I'll be watching for bullish reversal patterns to engage on the long side looking for a more meaningful corrective move to play out Moving to japan and the yen in focus in terms of data only one real Point of note next week and that comes on friday with june industrial production Last time negative seven point five percent looking for a positive four percent print As expected to bounce upon the reopening of the economy and supply but supply chain issues Obviously will remain a concern from a technical perspective and taking out that trend line support So i'm looking now for a three-way corrective move certainly 134 70 134 50 area and there watch for bullish reversal patterns And we've got an upside target into initially looking for a test of 140 on the outside before extending higher again And down under in australia In terms of data next week we get second-core cpi looking for a 1.9 percent print Some participants pointing towards a 1.7 print housing and food and auto fuel are driving the Second-quarter spike at widespread price pressures from both domestic and international sources continue to push on core inflation So looking for an annualized print there of 6.2 percent and trim mean of 1.5 percent And second-quarter cbi trimmed mean year over year at 4.7 percent Then heading into thursday we get june retail sales looking for 0.5 percent print there Potential for a touch higher at 0.6 percent. They look to have held up well despite falling consumer sentiment We also get export price index commodity prices moving higher Still on supply tops and that should support some robust growth there in terms of the import index Looking for a 2 percent there higher global prices mostly from energy tempered by that higher ozzie dollar Then we ran out the week with june private sector credit looking for 0.7 percent potential for 0.6 growth to ease back after oversized prints for business significant upward pressure and input prices As is also a concern so that runs out the data in australia from a technical perspective We're sitting right at that trend line resistance now Look for a pullback here and if that pullback can find support into the 68 20 68 30s We still see the potential for an extension up into high volume node 71 80s at this stage It will take a loss of that 68 level to suggest a more meaningful high in place and we still have that downside target at 66 40s. We'll just round out this session taking a quick look at bitcoin Still tracking this five wave sequence notable the similarities in terms of the price action here to this section here So whilst we hold that 25,000 level of resistance still we have a downside objective 12185 and again if we're thinking about these dollar seems some strength into the f omc And then putting in a potential tradeable local high And this this could be the move down in terms of bitcoin the final washouts coinciding with that fom c meeting and then we could see a more meaningful move to the outside As always traders plan the trade trade the plan the most importantly manage your risk until next week. Thanks very much