 Okay, very good morning. It is Wednesday the 1st of July. I'm Anthony Chung the head of market analysis here at Amplify trading Thought I would kick off today's briefing in a slightly different fashion because I had a few questions off a couple of new traders Yesterday about my morning routine. And so rather than me go through this in in kind of great detail I thought I'd give you a quick summary about just generally how I prepare ahead of the market open each day Certainly from from my perspective So I'm here to try and support our traders by helping them make sense of kind of structuring their day From the point of view of the things that they know that are taking place that economic data central bank speakers earnings Explorations these types of things to other things as well that could materialize and then helping them build scenarios about potential risks To the trading strategies that they're thinking about so hopefully I can give you just a very quick overview That could be useful for you going forward or at least to give you an insight the sort of things that I do in the morning So first things first my morning routine. I guess I call them Preflight checks, which is before I'd recommend that anyone really puts on a trade each morning It's just going through a process of due diligence of you know What was the close on Wall Street and for what reason so last night for example? We saw quite a Aggressive spike in US equities into the close because of particularly large Bicyde imbalance now with that impact the way I feel about the market open this morning Well, perhaps to a certain degree because actually that Bicyde imbalance is more of a function of the fact that it was quarter Month quarter and half year end and so a little bit of that kind of window dressing type price movement is not uncommon on those types of days Meaning then that there's no actual underlying Fundamental reason for that push higher and if we have then gone up Then it wouldn't be too much of a surprise to see a bit of that move fatigued and us to come back a little bit Compensating more for the fact that it was almost artificially lifted into the close last night Then I kind of look at the overnight Asia session What's happened is do any new news and obviously in context of now I'll be looking at things like any updates on Retaliation from China and what's been going on with this national security law in Hong Kong for example Is there any data? There's some more PMI numbers from China overnight So what's happened in Asia and then how does that then influence the open as we go into the European session? So before any trades go on it's very important to Think about and catch up and make sure kind of all of the boxes are checked And so that you are making the most informed decision possible by the time that you place those those trades and all those orders in the market One of the main things that I look at that I find particularly useful. I mean I use a squawk service. I mean being Kind of macro discretionary traders. We really can't operate without a squawk and new squawks the best in the business So we have an audio Announcer who basically is covering everything looking at Bloomberg and Reuters and all these different types of things But they basically put together a snapshot of all of the major News wise information of the main headlines they aggregate them that have come out overnight and they put it out in a short summary So yeah, check those guys out if that's that's of interest But that saves a hell of a lot of time rather than manually going through You know lots of different websites and things like that they basically have a 24-hour desk So by the time I'm kind of up looking at screens They normally publish something shortly after 6 a.m. London time I can have a read of that and I'm pretty much ready to go from a fundamental side of things I do though myself like to have a look at Basically for main resources to financial times Bloomberg and Reuters. I just have a quick scan through What I'm kind of looking for is I'm broadly aware of some of the key major themes in markets but I like to just isolate a couple of key facts out of some of the main stories that are going on and These publications serve as quite a good place where they give me some statistics and basically some context behind some of the initial Headlines that I find quite useful then of a base knowledge that I know where I can be more Reactful than to information as it breaks throughout the day because I've got a predefined idea of what the current status quo is And Twitter obviously is is an awesome tool if you've used correctly I mean if you jump on our amplify YouTube channel There's you scroll down a few few sections on the categories on the playlists You'll find I did a specific video about how to use Twitter For trading and it is such an immense tool if you know how to curate your own feed effectively Following the right people you get good insights. You get good timely information And so definitely just while I'm going about my business in the morning Particularly in a normal situation when I'm going to work It's it's a really great thing I just skimmed through and I've got a pretty good idea as well of what the general narrative in the morning is Fresh technical analysis they even for someone like me where I guess my my specialism is in market fundamentals I still go through the charts pretty much a fresh each morning starting on a higher time frame working my way down I like to know the kind of bigger picture of things Where are we at the moment or some longer standing technical levels? So for example looking at gold this morning. See we broke up 1800 yesterday on the monthly candlesticks now We're looking at several multi-year highs here. So Quite interested to see now technical on the upside it could open up the door really for a bigger push And so, you know, if equities do start flagging a little bit after the push we had yesterday could be quite interesting day So technical analysis again, I'd be going through from fresh and then checking the daily economic calendar now I get our traders to you know in a pretty distinct routine of at the end of every day So typically they're trading really the European sessions. So really my cash closed half 4 to 5 p.m I like to get them to get tomorrow's calendar and start pre-planning then or at least building Or visualizing what the following day might entail so that they already Know then what the kind of game plan is and so when they do those overnight Pre-flight checks in the morning. They already kind of just topping up a Plan that's already in development at that point So again, it helps accelerate that morning process and then when you check the calendar on the day It's like has there been any additions any new speaker events things of that nature now practical tips that I could say Absolutely pivotal that you assign a hierarchy to the news Otherwise, there is no way you'd be able to efficient efficiently really Disseminate everything that's going on and so the way I'll show you in a second how I go about doing that But it's the main thing which people would come back to me saying, you know, there's just too much information out there How do I order this kind of stuff? How do I know what to focus on and I'll give you some more detail in that The second bounce ideas with others one thing I do for sure Amplify as I'll speak to some of the other traders Namely Sam North who's the chap that you see who would normally be on the briefing with me but he He's one of our main traders and mentors and he trades with a much more technical orientation Then then I would look at markets And so I do like to get a more rounded opinion and certainly given the fact that you know His skill is in technical analysis Then there's certainly things that he may see that I don't and I like to then kind of use that Expertise to my advantage in that sake so bouncing ideas off of people. I think it's a healthy thing Frontload your prep work. This is one of those things They said about getting in that routine the day before so it's not so arduous a process then on the morning of And inform a plan for the day, you know One of the the main things that you hear traders who do this professionally always say Is that you know, you have a game plan and then you remain disciplined to then in action and execute that game plan So you become less reactive less impulsive Which is kind of more reminiscent then of what a lot of retail traders approach would be You already know what your opportunities are You kind of have overlaid the calendar and you know the general market structure and timings of when those opportunities might occur And then it's just about taking action at the right time This is then that idea about eliminating the kind of quote noise And having more focused research on what really when you're looking through the news what to focus on And the main thing is I've tried to take right now for example And covet 19 is probably the one thing that the market has been in the last week or two The most sensitive to so my triangle here is trying to be representative of the fact that that is The singular most important thing that could move markets in the short term and intraday in the markets that you're trading So any developments pertaining to covet Are particularly important and your attention then when you're checking the news in the morning needs to be centered around that particular subject and or When those timings of the updates come in an intraday basis, which is typically in the afternoon in london Then it's the trade war You've obviously got this recent escalation in the war of words between the u.s. and china So what is the latest have a search around what is currently being said very important again that you know what the current Let's say conflict where we're at and so that when you see a breaking comment or a trump tweet You know what to benchmark it against and whether or not that's a positive or negative outcome And then there's things like economic data, which you can see here I've put kind of in third place because we've got some data out later today like adp the private payrolls Number head of non farms that's coming out adp this afternoon But even with adp it's it's likely to show an improvement But is it important? Well, I don't really think so Not so much. I mean an improvement in all of the u.s. Data pretty much is what we've been seeing like consumer confidence yesterday So it takes a lower Kind of priority in that order of things and so by default then if I'm just selecting these three major themes that really are the driving Fundamentals of markets right now Well, then everything else I kind of not ignore But I give a lesser attention to because it's not going to be so impactful on the Prices of the products that I'm looking at so hopefully that makes a little bit more sense again It's a very top level overview. This is a disorder thing. I'd work with our traders on quite lentily Because this really is my my specialism in preparing for these sorts of things, but hopefully you found that You found that useful But look, let's let's have a look at the charts and let's get back to the briefing This shouldn't really take me too long It's been a relatively quiet open or a commencement of the second half of 2020 I'd say Follows of course the best quarterly performance in more than two decades A lot of those headlines flying around yesterday But look, I would take them with a little bit of pinch of salt as I always say context is is kind of key and you know, obviously we had that massive Correction in markets in March and then this phenomenal stimulus effort to to create this almost v-shaped recovery Certainly not in the economy, but at least in the equity market that we have seen So I think that's a little out of context to really be amplifying that type of commentary Uh, but you know yesterday again We had the consumer confidence posting its biggest rise since 2011 people making a bit of a A mountain out of a molehill I feel on the back of that because actually if you think about it cut off date for that survey was actually 18th of june So it was shortly before states like texas and arizona reimposed New restrictions after their fresh outbreak of covet 19 cases So I think it's a little bit rich to be jumping all over that thinking. Yeah, this is great consumers. Confidence is it's rocketing higher Perhaps getting a little heavy yourself Japan generally quite light overnight Sentiment caps on confidence among large manufacturers So they have something called the tan cancer which came out overnight and that actually fell to the lowest level since basically The global financial crisis in 09 Asia slightly positive in terms of china Sydney and soul and south korea. Hong Kong was actually closed And obviously that's quite an interesting localized area to to keep an eye on just given the the ongoing security law that's just been implemented from china Equity markets as I said we paired a little bit. You can see here the dax It's currently down 50 points the the nasdaq and s&p also slightly negative So you can see that extremity of the pop that we had with that that right into the close Big by-side imbalance that we had and so now that that's faded. We consolidated overnight a little bit of push back down to pivot I don't think it's untoward Or surprising and we did have The federal communications commission designate Wildway technologies and zte corp as national security threats another slight Although it was more repetitive commentary again a slight evolution of the the ongoing conflict between the us and china at the moment Which does keep markets Kind of a little bit fragile to developments on that front so Yeah equities a little bit negative As that has meant that t-notes have just been rising a little bit as europe has come in gold remains fairly elevated As I said before technically gold becomes quite interesting now Topside and downside levels of this range are going to be quite key And we're trading just about one and a half dollars off that initial high that was seen yesterday afternoon So this is the kind of trading range of the near term It's going to be quite important. But if I put this on a monthly, of course, we're now Now that we've vaulted 1800 that was the cap here Of price activity in 2011 And 2012-13 and so it's going to be super interesting now to see how the rest of this week unfolds Um, and do we start to see a kind of push up into ward You know levels where we start approaching up to around, you know, this is open now the door to higher push to 1850 1900 so on so forth. So It had been a pretty stern obstacle as you can see That we had in april mays price activity But june then closing that month and managing above there. I think is quite important Going forward. So yeah, certainly today and the session's address this week I'm going to be interested to see whether or not gold can really push on from here Because again, it just acts as a nice reassurance reinsurance policy almost Although there seems to be some positive developments on us data and things of that nature, you know, with the risks on just global geopolitics Then the trade war and in the covet developments, of course You know, it seems like a a logical place to to park at least some exposure at this time being for the medium-term trade Um, so yeah, that's the overall kind of charts this morning. Um oil You can see we had a little pop here in oil I'll just circle this one here at around 9 30 last night Of course, we had the regular api crude oil infantry So quick glance at those it was a drawdown of 8.156 Million expectations were for a draw of just 2.7. So that's a very bullish headline Gasoline was draw two and a half cushing a slight build But overall price movement in reaction to that was higher However, there wasn't been too much in a way of a sustained kind of reaction to that And now we're kind of just forming. Uh, there was some price movement. I'm just keeping an eye on here. You've got the pivot um kind of relatively loose trend line coming in from The bottom of some of the price activity prior to the Infantry release last night where we're training at the moment which kind of coincides that around the daily pivot for Today and then you've got the on the upside just keeping an eye as well It's been tested three times on that descending trend line Which we're coming at around 39 75 here if we were to bounce back up um So let's have a quick look at a few other things that are going on. What's the latest on covid? The latest on that is Anthony Fauci It's probably a name that you've heard before He's the u.s. government's top infections disease specialist He's basically worn lawmakers that coronavirus cases could rise to a hundred thousand a day if behaviors Don't change but he has always been on the Kind of more pessimistic view But I guess that's his job given his job title and role But just worth bearing that in mind that comes after the european union extended a travel ban on americans yesterday and i'm sure Trump's not going to be particularly happy about that. So Again, it kind of fuels that protectionist reaction if you like for united states, which in itself becomes quite a A spot of contention for potential renewed risk in regards to what he says on the eurozone as well as other potential trading partners going forward other than that of china Some other headlines on the the virus front to be aware of bloomberg We're reporting that a strain of flu virus spreading in chinese pigs Has shown it can also affect humans. So this isn't covid 19. This is a separate pathogen So yeah, if that were to happen that is bad news But I'd say it's way too early for us to start jumping to those kind of conclusions But I thought it was just worth pointing out on the flip side, you know, I can't just talk negatives weekly deaths involving coronavirus in england and wales Felt to their lowest in 12 weeks. So that's certainly a positive as far as the uk government is concerned Which on us independence days so this saturday on the fourth they're looking to go to the next phase of Loosening the lockdown But as I've said before and as we have seen what's happened in the lights of the united states of america It's going to be particularly interesting in the uk to see how things perform Over the period of the next two to three weeks given that incubation kind of period of the of the virus But as we've seen in the lights of lester in the east midlands against the east midlands in the uk How we the government's taking approach of localized lockdowns, which I think is a much more prudent way of managing then Trying to minimize the economic impact of what delaying Reopening of the economy could be On the china front. This was a tweet from your man donald last night Again having another pop shot at china As I watched the pandemic spread its ugly face all across the world including the tremendous damage It's done to the usa. I become more and more angry at china People can see it and I can feel it So that was one and that was quickly followed by this one Which was this is a battle to save the heritage history and greatness of our country And then obviously his kind of slogan maga 2020 So to me this is this is kind of the 101 marketing or framing that donald trump uses when when when he's Utilizing a system like twitter where he can directly communicate without the kind of Influence then of other media sources so one is china and that is framing the fact that you know the the Renewed pickup in virus cases has nothing to do with the management of the reopening of the economy It's just it's this is this enemy that is china and it's their virus and it's their fault and then secondly as well it's that kind of Reminiscent of that brexit take back control our borders, which obviously does resonate and it gives people that kind of That thought of you know that things used to be better in the past and it really taps into that core human psyche and belief and This type of Wording that he's using is definitely looking to counteract things like a lot of these social And civil movements that are happening at the moment like black lives matter for example Talking about heritage History how great the country used to be it's preserving and saving that from foreign interference. You know these are all very much Trump utilising this type of language to frame a certain narrative that certainly he's going to be pumping into the election So he was he did these two tweets back to back and I think that that's quite it was just quite a Good representation. I think of his kind of tactical approach at this point in time Other than that though from trump As I said the federal communications commission designated two of the big tech companies Which have been something that china hasn't taken kindly to The u.s. Of deem them as national security threats China Apparently will announce reciprocal curbs or branches of u.s. media in the country and strongly urge the u.s Not to escalate suppression of chinese media further. This was called into the global times Which is kind of the mouthpiece of the chinese government overnight And then the u.s. Treasury secretary munichin was speaking alongside juro pal yesterday to the house Reiterated he's working with the house and said it's a pass additional covet financial relief by the end of july Believes china will live up to its trade agreements, but there is concern about the lack of covet transparency So a couple of key things there from munichin as well One there's a couple of these kind of more consumer oriented packages for relief That's going to expire towards the end of this month And it's important that they get something else or at least the belief that something else is coming So that's part one two China are fulfilling their obligations despite the pop shops and that the president is giving them on the trade front And then three is kind of well There still is the fact that china are being quite a lack of transparency on that front so it's kind of Given them taking on that relationship side with china from the treasury secretary So that kind of summarizes that situation definitely something to monitor going forward for sure Canada wise then for today as we go further forward into the morning You do have the german unemployment rate and change To keep an eye on that will just be ahead of 9 a.m London time and then you've got the uk Manufacturing pmi coming out at 9 30. Let's be a final reading alongside the same for the eurozone This afternoon as I mentioned you've got adp national employment. It's actually actually expected It was previously a negative 2.76 million. It's expected at 3 million We've got a range of 1.25 to plus 9 million up high So as you can see here, we are expecting a spring back To basically if we go on a 25 year chart here, it's going to be one of the best numbers we've ever had It's what we're about to print so a continuation of this strong v I mean expectations are we're going to adp is going to print up at around here Could be if the top end of Analyst ranges up at 9 million which would be up here, which would be a phenomenal It would be a kind of a v-shape but with a little extra source on the top just to just to Really show how strong the recovery has been The other data point that we've got that is ism manufacturing and again that's expected to go from 43.1 to 49.5 Which basically eradicates any of the downward movement that we've had on the back of the The national lockdown on the commencement of kovid which impacted the april may figures So we're kind of back on track almost liking that data and nothing ever happened That I get the risk here, of course, is that we know u.s data has been particularly strong That city surprise index has been a record high territory So these things I don't think are going to surprise markets and perhaps not cause a massive move in the market If anything if we continue to get such awesome data I mean we heard already from drone powell's speech from yesterday how Things are improving perhaps a little bit better than expected And if that in itself could that in time start to become a little bit of a negative Because then it kind of reduces the emphasis of the fed to continue to do more I don't think we're near that point yet because all of the Tools and facilities the fed have put in place back in march We've only used an absolute fraction of the capacity of which those could go up to So I think he's always got the flexibility where he can sound a little bit more optimistic and actually help confidence generally But I think to think that the the fed are going to start unwinding things is is is a fallacy Because they haven't even begun using these facilities. And so all they would need to do is just switch the button on start using them more If the market started to turn so yeah at the moment You know, it's hard to see A trigger point that would cause a big You know a meltdown in markets at this point. So you know at least for now It's kind of the show goes on for the time being so Other than that we've got the FMC minutes this evening obviously could be quite interesting Given the fact that the last meeting of course is when we had The update we had the summary of economic projections. They said rates were going to remain low through that of 2022 I must admit though, you know, whenever minutes are released. They are somewhat dated Perhaps even now the world's moved on a little bit further We've had some more coveted developments. We've also had some more economic data since then which generally is surprised to the upside so perhaps the minutes Worth monitoring but again, I'm not sure how market moving they're going to be in all honesty speaker wise ECB's panetta speaking Shortly another hours time or so Bank of England's Haskell midday at a conference in Bryson And that's that's pretty much it. So look, that's it from me. I wish you guys a good day. You're going to let you get on I hope the The start of the session about the morning routine overview was was useful Just drop me a comment if you have any questions or if you want to see more stuff like that in future briefings from me I'll be happy to to do so. But guys have a good day. I'll see you same time tomorrow. Thanks very much