 Good morning and welcome to the week ahead video with me David Madden. Today's day is Friday the 19th of February 2021 and the time has just gone 1142 GMT and I'm looking ahead to next week Which is Monday the 22nd until Friday the 26th of February before we get into what's what's one of the major events of next week Let's take a look what's been going on this week. It's been a fairly interesting week For global stock markets things start off on a fairly positive footing beginning of the week At the very beginning of the week It was confirmed that the UK had vaccinated 15 million people by the 15th of February It had achieved its target, but it actually exceeded its target and that really kind of not only helped The UK market it also added to the kind of wider view that vaccinations are being rolled out That should you know at least begin the conversation of whether some of the restrictions going to be released and that kind of put the kind of the The recovery mindset the recovery rebound kind of into play But that didn't really last a whole long and we'll take a look at the reason reasons why In the last couple of days we have seen US government bond yields 10 year yield in its highest level in one year That's spooked the markets just a bit because people start thinking if The 10-year yield is on the rise that could be because higher inflation is in the pipeline That's spooked some clarity because if inflation is mentioned then all of a sudden people may start talking about higher interest rates Something like the Federal Reserve and other center banks around the world wouldn't want to be considering just yet So that's sort of acted as a bit of an excuse to take some Take some of the heat out of the stock market So I run through the major indices and then afterwards I've got a couple of currency pairs So this year is the Fuzzy Willundrush as you can see here at the beginning of the week I think they're looking quite positive it in multi-week high It was called to be above its faithly moving average the market has since turned over on itself now So it's currently having pretty much on the faithly moving average that blue line there Which which comes into play in around 6,557 if you can hold above that metric the recent and upward trend of the last few weeks could remain intact Electo may not act should there be the case and if you take out the highs of this week We're gonna be looking at retesting the highs of early January Any moves to the downside in the first 200 could potentially find some support in this area here The lows of February you know in around also with the 100 a moving averages that the other line is they almost converge in each other in a 6348 We'll take a look what happened over in Germany and the tax Similar situation to be honest it is quite similar across the major indices But just to cast our mind back to the beginning early on in February the tax hit an all-time high So it gives you an indication of kind of the strength that we've seen if you take a look at the move I've taken a look at the moves that we're seeing at the beginning of this week. They started off higher Vaccination helps roll out was I was kind of propping up the markets that along with the continued talk about And hopes and aspirations that the fight administration over in the US will implement the 1.9 trillion dollar spending package the tax hit Didn't didn't quite didn't quite get an old-time library to come right up there It has just a little over since it is constantly above though It's 50 day moving average the wider upper trend is still intact If you continue to kind of hold above the 50 moving average the blue line here We could be looking at retest and 14,000 and move beyond that could take us back up towards the record highest I've achieved an early of them for getting off the the month Over in Japan take a look what's going on the other Nikke from the Japanese market Simra scenario here we take a look at the price action wider view the Nikke Very very impressive upward trend. We're talking multi-decade highs so I could indication how strong the bullet sentiment has been recently Simra scenario multi-decade highs were achieved early on that the week We have moved back ever so slightly if you do move back further from here because we're currently around This well 30,000 100 and 30 30 out if you do have slides a break from here Support could be found in on the 29,000 mark area even if you go below that back down toward the faith that he moved the average So we're actually far away from multi-decade highs or cost to be above the faith that he moved the average That really gives you going to get good indication of strength that the beneath he is in We'll take a look now. What's going on over in the U.S. I? Mentioned how about US government bond deals ever so slightly cause a bit of a bit of a tremor in equity markets We also had yesterday some disappointing Just jobless claims numbers. Yeah, we can hit multi-week highs the cable wasn't expected that added to the kind of, you know, they could be Slightly bearish or not a negative sentiment I was kind of created into the markets the last few days if anything it just kind of seemed to kind of act as a Is a good excuse to kind of for traders to kind of trim their positions on stock keep mine equity markets beginning of the week Yes, it'd be 500 did hit another yet another all-time high. We can see here that around It's in around 3921 You're comfortably above the fifth of the moving average is blue line here Which comes to play just south of three thousand eight hundred to the wider trend is still very much intact If you move on higher from here, if you take out the highs of Beginning of this week. We can then be looking upwards. You could have a big psychological number of four thousand I do want to talk about What the concerns about inflation? with there were some There was a concerns about higher inflation during the week. We saw US PPI Rise we also saw import prices rise. So these are things these are pressing issues right at the absolute minute But we have seen a much higher in US government bond deals this week So it is possible that that sort of topic could resurface in the next few days or the next few weeks Speaking of what's been going on in the US. I'll take a look a couple big currency pairs Starting off a pound dollar and the pound traded north of one spot 40% of the US dollar today It hit a fresh 34 month high So we're talking nearly three or high on pound dollar So starting has been on the rise the last few months of myself. We're trend were really since September but it's been pouring ahead in 2021 the finally we got at the back end of December we got the deal between the UK and the EU that was a big relief that really helped British pound also the very much Very successful rate of which the UK is rolling out vaccines. It's helping So it kind of seems that I've become a major economies particularly of Europe and you know, even the world The UK is kind of you know, one of the best performers on the vaccine front Therefore hopes are that the UK will be unwinding at some point if restrictions You know sooner rather than later and that should should be ahead of other other countries So starting at just recently hit a 34 a new 34 month high if you can retake One 140 and we could hold a bobbish. We could then be looking at heading up towards The highs of August 2018 in around one spot 30 on one spot 43 76 any moves to the downside in the British pound We could find support coming to play from this blue line here the fifth day moving average in one spot 3639 notice how on a couple of occasions in December in the middle of December and in late December the fifth day moving average Actually nicely as supports up if a metric has been of importance in the past it makes it more likely It'll be of importance in the future although there are no guarantees Secret the currency pairs take a look what's going on Euro dollar to do a couple of big European or Eurozone and economic announcements next week It's been interesting one with the with Euro dollar, but what's the more interesting would save the dollar itself? So it is sort of upper trend from November into early January when Euro dollar hit its highest level in over two and a half years Learned you to do a dollar weakness since then we have seen I am a move low We so we've had the lower low we've had the lower high the lower low sort of decent rebound here But notice how Euro dollar even though it's well off the lows of February. It's still struggled I still fail to reach to retake the 50 moving average is blue line here and that comes into play in at one spot 2152 while we hold below the 50 moving average It's likely that the more recent downward trend is going to continue should that be the case We could be looking at retesting the early February lows in at one spot 1952 I want to move below that to take us back down towards the lows of late November in around kind of, you know 18 but let's not forget the broader upper trend and the fact that it wasn't that long ago Be this highest level in over two years. So if we do get back above the 50 moving average We can hold above it we could be looking at heading it towards kind of 122 zone It's just kind of in late January. It was fell just it turned around just shy of it You take it up towards 122. We could then be looking at retesting the highs that we've seen In early January in at one spot 23 49 Now kind of a quick one-through of somebody kind of corporate stories that are that are coming out in the Corporate and economic stories coming out in the week ahead. We have GDP updates from Germany France and the UK We also have unemployment numbers coming out from from from the UK. Sorry apologies. It was the US Germany and France we have GDP numbers coming out your GDP numbers coming out for Keep in mind, you know, we're not expecting a whole lot in terms of from the eurozone in terms of growth numbers Just because given the how harsh the restrictions have been On top from the UK next week we've been unemployment on employment details coming out the headline unemployment rate Isn't exactly that the most accurate measure of employment in the UK at the moment as it includes those That are on furlough. So it's so that isn't the most accurate accurate picture The claimants come reading the claimants come percentage is considered to be a better gauge of the UK unemployment rate Also terms of economic data coming up next week They want to watch off what would be US personal income and spending particularly on the spending front our Americans going out spending money We saw some very strong retail sales from the US during the week It's quite clear that they get a stimulus package that was signed off in December in the US Roughing 900 billion dollars that included and stimulus Checks to individuals and it's quite clear that they were going on spending money. Should we see that again from the From the from the personal spending numbers I could add, you know, we could see further upper move in the in the US dollar keep mind that keep mind What I was saying about how the euro Could be a good look at the turn lower on the corporate front. We've bought a few stories HSBC Lloyd's they both are failure figures in the last couple of days We've had numbers from Barclays and from Royal Bank of Scotland Both of which are very sizable impairments It's a keep keep keep mind We're looking at those banking stocks ask Martin for the numbers as do IEG that they've heard the British Airways Over in the US we have first solar, Moderna, the big pharmacy crowd and also we have an update from Salesforce Take a quick look what's been going on with large share price recently One of the issues that has helped British banking sector in the last few weeks and months was that we heard not a long ago From Andrew Bailey the government Bank of England who essentially can I give a strong hint that negative interest rates won't be introduced in the near term And if they haven't been introduced in the near term, it may not be introduced at all The result has been we've seen a decent move up to the up Relative strength in British banking stocks and even though we're kind of well off the lows of September We've been difficult loads as well as struggle to kind of reach as the highs of November But we've been gaining ground recently if you have numbers that are you know, at least not terrible or better than expected All of Lloyd's because expectations have been low for banking profits recently If you do kind of take up the 40 pence level and if you take up the highs We'll just shy of 41 pence early November. We can maybe look me heading back up towards the kind of the kind of 45 zone Or up towards the kind of 50 pence zone as more kind of longer term target for Lloyd's any moves to the downside Could find support from the 50 moving average this blue line here in at 36 pence. It's only really to take up the lows This area here the lows of late December in around 32 pence Can we kind of begin to get a worry because we have been pretty range bound on loads recently? And lastly what I'll do is I'll take a look at HSBC similar scenario The banking sector has been a focus HSBC makes office money in the Far East China Much better recovery from the Chlorovirus crisis in other countries so you can see here that wasn't that long ago It's only during the week that we actually see HSBC share price back to level seen essentially about a year ago There they're about you get back up to levels last seen on well in April of 2020. So HSBC is share price not too far So it goes a multi multi-month highs almost a year high It's been pushing higher recently if they continue to move on higher from here We could be looking targeting the five pound area on HSBC And he moved to the downside in HSBC could find support from the fifth and moving average down around here of the Around around just just shy of four pounds or if you break below the lows of early February in at once 33 pounds every seven it could take us back down for this red line here to remove the average and Notice how that acted nicely support in late December and once again a metric has been significantly in the past It's something to keep an eye out for in the future That's all for me from this video. Thank you for listening. Have a good weekend and have a good training week next week Thank you