 Welcome to this week's CMT Markets Weekly Outlook webinar, just on the old risk warning screen at the moment. Let's have a read through that and then we can get started. Well, we might just jump immediately to one of the first notable moves that's happening in the markets at the moment is we're getting a big jump in oil prices and that could well feed through to higher stock markets today. Obviously, the drop in oil prices hit the energy sector pretty hard, particularly in the FTSE and the Dow Jones, the UK 100 and the US 30. So this is definitely an interesting development, about 4% higher on Brent, 3% odd higher on WTI. This is the kind of short-term situation. This is in WTI, so we've been bumping into this base at about $44 since that low was formed on the 13th. In these situations, the trend is down, so you've got to assume, you don't have to, but it's logical to assume that the trend is going to continue and that this line will break. But when you get that kind of acceleration to the upside, particularly through a key barrier like 45, and then this kind of resistance area that's been formed here in the mid-part of this range, as well as this declining trend line in the short-term, then you have to set up and take notice and think, well, perhaps we're in for a larger correction here from this downtrend and so you've got to shift your bias at that point. So there was the indications here of a bottoming process. You assume it's not going to be a bottom, but you're certainly aware of the possibility, definitely given the extent of the declines we've seen already. And now we are just bumping into this, and you can see we had a couple of hits on this 49-ish type area, and that's what we've kind of run into at the moment. So this could be deemed a sort of horizontal range. This is a bit of an issue there, but otherwise this would make sense as a kind of price range. So we've seen quite a large move, so we might be in for a bit of a correction from this kind of level since it has potentially been just part of this range. And we certainly can't outrule the possibility that this is just a kind of bare flag where this is the pole and this is the sideways flag, and then we just drop again. Definitely a distinct possibility. But a lot of people are looking for the base in oil prices. So this is WGI, just looking at that short-term picture. But what I think is perhaps more interesting is if we just have a look at Brent, what I've got here is the longer-term picture. So this is our monthly chart. This is not necessarily a particularly valid trend line. It only has two touches, but nevertheless quite interesting how last month's January's candlestick actually managed to close just about on or above this rising trend line. And if we kind of zoom in on this candlestick a bit, you can see it did close over halfway from the range of the candle, which didn't close right at the open or right at the high, which would be a stronger reversal signal. But nonetheless, definitely the indication of some kind of selling here. And also the fact that we closed above this key 50 level in Brent, which is obviously the sort of internationally followed contract for oil, then about a couple of key technical developments there that could be the beginnings of a bottoming process. Interesting to look back at 2008 when we had this last massive planet. You know, we had a bit of a kind of stronger reversal signal there. We can see prices drop right down and closed up with a very small body. Then we had a couple of months of just kind of going sideways doing nothing before making our way right back up again. So that could be what we're looking at here. We've already seen it somewhat in the short term. We've just sort of horizontal range. That was the thing we were looking at in WTI, but very much similar in Brent. This kind of choppy formation, we could just be looking at that on a kind of, you know, just on a longer time frame. So more of these kind of sideways type markets where we're going to see weeks of just up and down, maybe up to 60 even, find some resistance there, down again to 50. Maybe get a bit of that before we kind of work out the next direction. So certainly Brave, if you're buying in here for the long term, could certainly pay off. We haven't got all the evidence yet that this is a bottom fundamentally still oversupplied and under demanded in terms of oil. But, you know, the fundamentals do tend to show themselves after the technical picture takes place. So that's the nature of it. So that's oil. But really the sort of general focus for markets at the moment, particularly when we're looking at the indices, is quantitative easing from the European Central Bank. I think there's little doubt that that has been the main catalyst for why European markets are one of their best months in years in January, whereas US markets were somewhat lackluster and actually closed down in the end in a pretty disappointing month. If you look at the difference economically, yes, the US saw massive growth in Q3 in a bit of a drop-off, but we only just got that data. There were some signs that there was a slowdown, but what else are you really going to do except slow down a bit from a 5% expansion? So economically the US still looking really a lot better than Europe, yet the European equities are massively up performing. European equities are pretty undervalued compared to the US, there's an element of the new year fund managers looking at what the valuations are across various sectors, various countries and shifting things around according to where they think there is value. And so when you have the combination of quantitative easing, so massive stimulus from the Central Bank and valuations that look a bit more favorable, then that might be two key reasons for switching into European stocks and so that's why when we look over at the Gemini 30, we've seen this massive rally. And so this was the kind of triangle formation that I alluded to a couple of weeks ago really, it was around here, so yeah, a couple of weeks ago. And so we've hit that 100% target almost perfectly, so 100% basically came just shy of the 10800 and it was that 10800 basically that ended up being the resistance. And now we're just kind of travelling sideways trying to break to the upside or failing that, break to the downside. Now we've got some, you know, a small, this is more evident on short term, but a small bit of a negative divergence here in the RSI according to these peaks, but that peak to be fair is lower. I mean it's basically flat, but this one's distinctly lower. So a small sign that we could get risk and risk to the downside. It may, obviously QE is going to be, you know, it's going to be an increasing factor and it's not like it's all priced in. Especially when QE actually physically starts making its mark and 60 billion euros kits pumped into equities and the Eurozone economy, et cetera, then we're going to see the sort of physical effects on markets, but this is all expectation of at the moment. So I think we've still got some room to go on the upside. But the situation in Greece, which is fairly prominent at the moment, you know, that could be the cause for a kind of correction perhaps to this small consolidation area that we saw here around the 10, 300 mark. That's a definite possibility. And that to me looks about 50% of that move. So you can see here we're basically at that 23% at the moment. 38.2 is a bit in the middle of nowhere. The bottom of this consolidation is the 50%. So in this sort of zone, especially with the 21-day moving average coming into there, could act to support should we break this current level. So if we zoom down into the four-hour, we can see this is a possible double top and we've got the negative divergence alongside it. So basically the confirmation of this pattern would be a slip through this 23.6% FIBO level around that sort of 10,560. That would be our trigger for going short if that would deem to be a double top pattern. But at the moment, again, you know, the trend is as high as you've got to assume it's probably a consolidation pattern, but it certainly could be a double top. With that kind of zone here being an area that might attract some interest. The euro's been a somewhat sort of different story. Largely just sort of, you know, the reaction from stocks and so the sort of, the moves that happened in markets prior to the ECB announcing quantitative easing and the moves afterwards have been a bit different from stocks and the euro. The euro basically was pricing it in beforehand and has basically sort of sold on the new, sold on the rumor and bought on the news where stocks kind of post fact have been rallying. So if you look at the euro, it's actually rebounded a bit in the last week or so. This is the monthly picture, which I think is sort of worth bearing in mind. You know, this potentially is a sort of pretty downward sloping channel. So it has three touches on the top. That's valid. These two sort of match up. And so if we were to touch the bottom of that channel, it would be just above that sort of that parity mark that a lot of people have their eye on and would just be along the lines of this top of this consolidation pattern depending on how long it takes to get there. But this is obviously a pretty long-term picture, so it's not to say we can't get some kind of bounces in the meantime when it looks like we are in the midst of one at the moment. And I think a key level, you can see this line that we've got here is about it. So 1,640-ish. When we drop down to the daily chart, you can see that's here. That could be something that we're looking at should we break through this downward sloping trend line. So it doesn't look too good. It's just a very sharply declining trend line because of the extent of the move on the daily chart. It looks a bit more reasonable on the four-hour chart. So this is the line through this peak here. A couple of attempts to break here and a breakdown. So maybe it's going to make it this time. We're basically testing the 55 periods moving average on the four-hour and that declining trend line. And this sort of 1,270 is holding up pretty well. You know, whether we can break above that may somewhat depend on the PMIs that we see this week. We've seen some already in terms of manufacturing, on Wednesday we've got more in terms of services, which obviously a larger contributor towards the Eurozone output. But as far as European data, it's a little bit on the limited side. And we saw we had the two big events with the Fed last week. So when you're looking at the kind of Euro against the dollar, it may be the kind of dollar and the things that drives things. And the big one this week as it is the first week of the month is obviously non-farm payrolls. And now it's on Friday and keep in mind obviously we've got our non-farm payrolls webinar. So you can follow along live with the event if you're able to do so. So drivers of this, you know, it's a bit uncertain exactly how things are going to play out with Greece. Well, very uncertain. You know, should we suddenly move towards a world in which the new anti-asterity party, Syriza and Greece, are really playing a sort of difficult ballgame and really fighting hard to the extent that it's just not anywhere near something, the likes of Germany or Finland or some of these opponents to cutting back, you know, giving the Greeks a sort of a haircut on their debt. So, you know, if it gets to the extent where it's just no sense of agreement, then, you know, there's going to be the valid worry for markets that Greece is just going to drop out of the Eurozone. It doesn't matter so much about Greece, but it does matter for the kind of general validity of the whole structure of the Eurozone. You know, Greece drops out. Who's to say that Spain or Italy won't be next? So that's a distinct downward risk, obviously downward risk to the Euro. But on the upside, we do have, you know, the possibility of non-farm errors perhaps coming under what's had been previously hoped. We've seen a bit of a slowdown in the fourth quarter in terms of growth. I had a few numbers for January, which weren't quite so up to scratch. So maybe a number below the sort of 220 that's been expected, that could be the catalyst to push the Euro higher. But technically, this trend line's the first point. We're bumping right into it at the moment. So the area that this can go, this might be the first to give the support. Maybe another move lower before a break higher. So keep an eye on these two lines. Breakup from one or the other gives a bit of space above and below. We've got this low here, but given that this had a couple more touches, I would point to about the sort of 11550-ish, one more 545. There's been the kind of more important area I would say on the upside. Now we do obviously have the Bank of England this week, so we may as well have a look at Sterling. So this picture with Sterling, obviously fairly bearish-looking chart, just an obvious downtrend. If we pull back, we can see these are the two horizontal lines. That was an important area. We've really failed three times to get back above there, and to me it would be logical for us to go and re-challenge this 148-40-ish, these lows from 2013, especially after that last week's candle. That's quite a strong move from those highs down lower again. Obviously, a large amount of this is dollar strength, but recently we've seen some more kind of bearish indications for the patent, excuse me, just because inflation has dropped so much alongside the price of oil. That alongside falling wages or limited wage growth, then it's not as much reason for the Bank of England to high grades as the ones was. The other thing being that the housing market was on fire, now it's cooled somewhat, given some of the other regulations that have been put in. Without that kind of housing market bubble risk, without the inflation, wage risk, the unemployment numbers are ticking along nicely, but there are some other indications that the economy is not going as strongly as it could. A lot of people, myself, included just said it's healthy to raise rates to a more normal level, but looking at sort of the way the central bank has tend to work, normally a bit behind the curve, quite frankly, we could be on for no great hike from the Bank of England in 2015, and that's pretty bearish for the pound. But on a short-term note, you could see where we've been bumping into on the top and the bottom side, and this is the low to keep an eye on. For a moment, we're in the range, so overall, quite an obvious downtrend as we saw in the daily chart. So buying at the bottom of the lower range is definitely distinctly more risky than selling at the top of the range. But when you dip down to there, some potential value, but don't be surprised if we break through it, it is a downtrend after all. So at the Bank of England meeting, probably not much to be expected there, but it's going to be another one of those sort of nothing, it's going to be no change announced. But you have to consider that the backdrop of the last meeting was that two of those hawks, dissenting hawks that had voted for a rate hike, they pulled back. So probably what's behind this no-changer policy is probably a unanimous decision not to change policy, which is the transition towards a natural rate hike would be people start to descend, more people start to descend, and then there's a majority for hiking rates. But at the moment, it's unanimous for keeping it the same. But we won't know that till the minutes later. So yeah, probably not much to be seen from that Bank of England report. The inflation report, monthly inflation report I think from the Bank of England is maybe next week, probably should have double checked that. That is yep. Next Thursday will be much more interesting for the outlook of the British pound. Given that is the case, US jobs report aside, that might be reason why we stay in a bit of a range bound type conditions and maybe does increase the probabilities from buying at the bottom of this range given that we've got such an important event next week for the pound. While we're on the currency front, you'll notice here in the inside section, obviously we've got things pumping out here all the time, but particularly of note is that we've got... It should be here. I'm not seeing it. Maybe it's been pulled. Basically on the website, I'll make sure to know an update here. Maybe I'm just going blind, but there's a report that we have on the upcoming RBA meeting which is basically sort of tonight for us. Basically, well, sort of early hours RBA meeting. And so if we have a look at the Australian dollar, I'll see your question about test code SMG. Yep. I'll have a little look at that just after this. Move the wrong trend line there. So this is the sort of general conditions we've got the Aussie on the daily chart, strongly down obviously. This was the big support level that we busted through, but as you can see, we're now sitting on this 200 month moving average. So in the short term, that's capable of giving us a little lift, but you can see not really too much signs of a bounce on the monthly chart there, having hit that moving average, pretty much closed at the lows in a very bearish looking candlestick. So not looking too good for the Aussie, and some of the reason behind that is obviously... Well, a lot of the reason is the dollar strength. That's a given for any of these dollar pairs, barely worth mentioning at this point, but specifically towards the Aussie. We do have this RBA meeting, and the risk of an outside surprise from the RBA, Governor Stevens over there, made a little rate hike in there, following along from China, having done the same. Obviously China is a big demand of the Australian commodities. So the Aussie dollar is really being hit particularly hard alongside falling copper, iron ore, and oil prices. It's not a big oil exporter, they're just general slumbering commodities. It's not good for the Aussie. Arguably good for the Australian economy, for their exports, but if the reason for the decline in the exchange rate is because their export markets are suffering, that's not really a good thing. So it's also difficult at some point that the dropping prices will make their commodities desirable enough for people to buy more, but we're not quite at that stage yet. So not, as you can see from that long-term outlook chart, not much cause in terms of support for buying. So really a matter of kind of pinpointing your short at this point until there is some evidence of a bottoming pattern. And certainly not unknown for a bottom pattern to happen away from a sort of major support level. So this is potentially support from this moving average. And we've got that spike reversal there, a bit below prices. So we certainly could bottom out it, but my suspicion is having broken that, we could see the amount further to go, perhaps down to the top of this consolidation area, around 71. So I don't know, that'd be a thousand points lower from that break that we had. Now we're not as regular on our chart updates on Tesco, but happened to me a bit more recently. I think I did one after the last earnings report. Strange, I thought I did more recent one. Well, instructive to pull it out to the longer-term charts. I think the weekly probably serves a bit better. This is basically a pretty classic double bottom we've had in Tesco's. I think there's also either a double bottom or a head and shoulders that's taken place in Sainsbury's. So maybe it was that that I put on the chart forum. But yeah, certainly a bit of a bounce taken place in all of these supermarkets. I think probably what we're seeing here is this consolidation area. This one, that's where this gap that we had, temporarily stopped prices on that week. But then you can see this area has made it had a bigger effect. Last week we closed down. A pretty weak bearish engulfing candlestick on Tesco didn't really close the bottom of the body was not really below the previous week, but still pretty bearish looking candlestick. You'd want to see the break of the week before last to give yourself a bit more of an indication that things are overdone on the upside. If you're looking for another opportunity to buy Tesco's, you think we put in the low, then if we can get down to this peak again, it would only be natural for around that 200 mark, but I think 197 maybe more specifically, 197.40, that would be a definite potential area that some people will be looking at for buying Tesco's. But we may not get down that low. There is quite strong momentum now. In the shorter term, some signs that this... I drew this as a good example of just how small things on the daily chart that barely seem to match on a daily chart, you can see our acting as support on the shorter timeframes. We came up, bumped up against it, of course if you spiked above, couldn't close, eventually did gap above it, came into that daily 200 day moving average, and now we found support back at that level back there. This could hold a support. It's not been a particularly large correction. Maybe this big spike higher out of the range could be another area if you're not keen to wait down to 197. It could be another area to get in on Tesco's. If it breaks 241, then you get into the stage where... So here's one, the way I distinguish targeting the support resistance is that if you're in a downtrend where you're forming lower lows, lower highs, then the bounces back should, if it's a healthy downtrend, find resistance at the prior support areas. If you've broken that downtrend, as perhaps we arguably have, then it no longer would actually be the supports like this would be a kind of logical support that we're holding up and then broke through big time. If the downtrend was still intact, they would only drop down to here or something and then it bounced up to there. That would be a buying opportunity, a selling opportunity. But the fact that we've kind of come down, based out, broken through a high, made a higher high, potentially will make a higher low, and then move up to there, to me would mean that actually it wouldn't so much be the base. It would be the high. Because it's a failure to make a new higher high, which would put an end to the uptrend, if that makes sense. So when we're looking at areas from the prior trend to use as targets, if the downtrend's still intact, we use the supports. But if the downtrend's been broken, we use the resistances. Test that out if you don't believe me, but it tends to be the way things play out. So that's the question. I'm going to put it north of three, and 300 is obviously a big round number, and then just north of that, about 312. Okay. Any other markets people would like me to cover, certainly let me know. I've sort of deviated around a little bit. I guess the UK 100 would be a logical one. This is the longer-term picture. We're in this channel. Now, we've come up quite strongly off the bottom of this channel. The bottom of the channel a couple of times. That's quite a strong signal. We broke through this massive sell-off that we had. It's that strong signal. But so far, we haven't got through the 6900, the top of the channel. So, broadly speaking, when you're in a channel, the lower-risk opportunities are to the right towards the bottom of the channel, still towards the top. So we're at, obviously, close to the top. The lower-risk opportunities tend to be sales, tend to be going short. If you believe that the European quantitative easing program is going to feed through into UK equities, then that would mean that we're going to get a break higher. So the risk, obviously, of going short of the top of the range, is that we break high. But that's the nature of whenever you're doing a range trade, you're buying at the bottom, selling at the top, the risk is that we break out. We've been in this range for a while. So the longer this range takes place, each time you buy yourself from the bottom of the top, the bigger the risk for that, that's the time that it breaks out. But if you have so far been selling at the top here and buying at the bottom, then you're already ahead. And when it finally does break, well, that would be a loss or a break-even trade. You didn't take it on the chin, and then you can start going with the trend once it's broken. But to me, that's the major catalyst here, because the UK economy's thickening along, but it has been for a year or so. Arguably, it's declined a little bit in the past six months, but it's probably just going to be a quantitative easing from the eurozone that would be the reason for the UK breaking higher. Just chasing the dachshire. A quick note on gold. So here's where we are. This is how I'm looking at things. One of the more clear-cut charts. To me, this was an inverse head and shoulders pattern. We've got a strong breakout from hit 300. We've corrected down to the 21-day moving average. We've seen a bounce from there. So we're always at critical junctures, but this is particularly one where if we break through that 21 moving average, then the next logical support would be down towards the neckline of the pattern. And that's not really good. If you move a good amount of distance away from the neckline, but then come and test it again before having reached a target, it's an indication the target is just not going to get reached. For now, I'm still looking towards this target. That is the height of the pattern. And then from the breakout area, that is the objective, 100% objective of that height from that breakout area, and it does correspond pretty perfectly with that peak. So it's at 1,340. The trend is higher for now. We're in the midst of a correction. We've bounced quite strongly from that moving average, and we're just dipping a bit now. So if you believe that this low is going to hold somewhere in the space of last week's candlestick, this candlestick is going to become an increasingly better value to buy somewhere in there. And obviously, if you're buying right out of the low, it's just minimal risk if you have your stop loss somewhere close below the low. So that's really there. That's kind of the main focus for myself, pattern-wise and gold. I did do the last couple of snapshots that I've done, snapshots of the video updates. Normally it lasts two, three, four minutes. The last couple I've done, I've been on gold, so you can see a bit more in depth as some of the fundamental reasons for gold in those. So what I'm going to do is I'm going to switch off the recording. Thank you very much for attending. Should there be any further questions, I'm happy to answer those questions after the official recording. So I'll stay online, wait for any more questions, but if you don't get any, thanks very much for attending. Good luck with the week's trading.