 Good morning to the new trading week and good morning from your Frankfurt office of CMC markets Yeah, there was challenge yelling Closing trading so so to say close and trading on Friday with a late hour speech about the market She gave no hint to a rate hike in December Which was kind of surprising because her colleagues or a lot of them actually seem to be eager to high grades She wasn't in the mood on Friday at least to hint any such step She is still not really satisfied with GDP growth 1.1% Was the GDP growth in the United States in the first half of this year now if you look at the GDP now Somewhat near-time indicator for GDP growth in the third quarter That's the GDP now indicator from the Federal Reserve of Atlanta It has halved in the past months to now 1.6 percent So that's all disappointing. It's all If taken together if there should be 1.9 percent growth in the third quarter 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter Which would be above current? forecasts then the growth in the US economy in the year 2016 would only be 1.5 percent and that's Much less than has been expected at the start of the year expectations at the start of the year 2016 have been for three and a half percent growth and then there was one sentence which was really kind of surprising and That was what when Janet Yellen said that inflation in the United States could go and could rise above 2% And that would be no problem Wow If you remember back some weeks ago her her colleague Rosengren Who is one of the FOMC members who seemed to be eager to hike rates has said that they could come a moment where inflation is starting to rise very quickly and Then the Federal Reserve needs to hike rates very quickly which would in the end Like a stop any economic expansion that had been created by loose monetary policy in the first place But now Janet Yellen actually said oh, it's no problem 2% inflation and about that Yeah, we could really Would really be a situation that is okay in her eyes. So if you Think that through it's it might be also okay to have 3% inflation in the United States without the Federal Reserve like Trying to tackle that as long as the Federal Reserve regards that 3% inflation as temporary so that is something that has Spook the markets a bit because it like spoke for or it hiked the probabilities for lower rates for longer Longer even longer time than markets thought before so no fat no real fat signal on Friday I have a more dovish signal on Friday And now there will be all eyes on thirsty when the ECB meets and in the early afternoon Mario Draghi will hold a press conference markets expect no change from there It will be interesting to see in my opinion if Draghi is going to repeat his inflation Forecast he said that inflation in the eurozone is going to go up to 1% in the past month of this year or In the first month of the next year inflation in the eurozone should rise to 1% and then until end of 2018 or the beginning of the year 2019 it should go up to the target of 2% that was unusually optimistic words for Mario Draghi and it will be very interesting to see if he's going to repeat that forecast and Should inflation and that is just a side note here should inflation go up from the very low levels near 0 to 1% Should that be a rise in inflation? It could mean that investors and global investment funds who have fled the eurozone because they feared Deflation they fled the eurozone to invest in emerging markets and primarily to invest in US equities should inflation go up in the past months of this year and There could be some diversification Back from the United States equity markets and from emerging markets back to the eurozone and that could serve to To some some catch-up effect from the decks to the global market. So that is really something You should watch closely something else, which is very important this week will be China GDP numbers Which will be coming out in the night from Tuesday to Wednesday Wednesday? Morning we expect a market consensus is that the GDP in China crew by 6.7% so that would be very interesting to see how this will go after China actually Published very disappointing important export data last week which spooked markets because you know The hard landing scenario with the Chinese economy is still on the table It has somewhat taken a backseat in the past months, but should The Chinese data Chinese economic data Continue to disappoint strongly like the important export data last week did then The hard landing talk could really go from the back seat to become a more important Topic which could create volatility so that is some data Chinese GDP numbers on Wednesday, which you should watch closely