 We have another no-cut event coming up this week in PGA-DFS, so we can all be thankful for that as we begin our Tuesdays for today. Taking a look at the Zozo Championship from a PGA-DFS perspective. Over in Japan, 78 golfers in the field, there is no cut. There will be much rejoicing. We're gonna bring things down from a DFS perspective and let you know who we are targeting for this week. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network in NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Joined here as always by Brandon Gedula. He is the managing editor for NumberFire.com. Brandon, we're heading to Japan this week. How are you doing today? Good. This field is maybe less good. We've got some good names at the top. And then, well, five. I'd say Morakawa, Zander, Hideki, Zalatoris, and Neiman. They're all their top tier. But according to the FanDual Sportsbook odds, it's Colin Morakawa and Zander. And then everyone else can just go take a hike. Maybe they will, you know. A lot of people have. A lot of people have already withdrawn from this event. So like, you know, maybe they, maybe that's why. They were like, oh, man, it's Zander's in this field. Toast. See you guys. Pack my bags. Go tour Japan while I'm here, you know, instead of playing some golf. Can't play them. I don't know if they, I don't know if everyone traveled. And then I don't know how I would have to assume they took the full flight and then decided to withdraw. I think that would be a more logical way to play things. Yeah. I mean, Japan's probably got some sweet hiking. But I was supposed to be there this year and then a pandemic happened. And so I am sad about that and very jealous of the people who decided to go to this golf event instead. Yeah. Um, I also am usually pretty jealous of pro golfers because I'm not a pro level pro level golfer. As I reminded myself again yesterday, I'm not quite there. Yep. I've not been out in a very long time. So that would not go well. I'm jealous of you for going. So we are several deviations from being Zander Shafley and Colin Morikawa for this week. Now as mentioned, the Zozo championship is a no cut event. It is an Accordia Golf Naraschino Country Club. It is 7,041 yards in the par 70. There are 78 golfers in the field. Once again, there is no cut with this event being in Asia. There will be an early lock lock. It's on Wednesday night. So not Thursday morning. So if you are like me and tend to procrastinate, don't do that. Make sure you had those done by Wednesday afternoon. Actually, it might be noon. Yeah. 12pm Eastern. I think that's incorrect because I believe Japan is about 12 hours behind us. I was going to say that sounds weird. That would be about midnight. So I guess it's close to like 6. I at least want to say I'm seeing a Fandall contest that lists lock at 12pm Eastern. It always lists at 7 o'clock a.m. Eastern for the Thursday lock events. I'm pretty sure they just change it once t-times are out. I'm pretty sure it's wrong. I'm just saying. But yes. Yeah, I'm pretty sure it'll be around 6 o'clock on Wednesday. If I have a contest. Yeah, I'm with you. Just one. Yeah. Yeah. So get those a lot upset Wednesday afternoon. Get them finalized by then. This is mostly a reminder to me because I won't forget and need to not do that in order to give myself a chance in the bobble hat against you. So Brandon, they have played at Narasuna Country Club before they played it back in the year 2019. The PGA Tour season 2020. What did we learn there with no shot link data and a lot of other unknowns in that event? I mean some stuff not a lot with no shot link. It's really impossible to figure out exactly what led to certain things. But Tiger Woods was the winner at 19 under in total nine golfers finished at least 10 under par and as is typical we see golfers effectively miss the cut in a no-cut event. That's how it works. Especially with the bottom of this field being really weak 30 30 of the 76 golfers back in 2019 or over par. So don't please don't just play Xander Morikawa Hideki and then click three names down in the 7000 range. It's not going to it's not a long-term winning strategy. I don't even know if that's enough salary there. But yeah, 81 that's fine. Yeah, I've never actually never really just click the top three names and saw what happened. I assumed it was pretty bad. But not that bad 81 33. Man, I mean, maybe bring a Hage down there. Wyndham Clark if we're going to go for distance because that's the one thing we know about this course. How about that for transition? There you go. There you go. Why am I here? You take my spot. Well, it's the pod goes a lot better when it's not a solo pod which I had plenty of experience with this year, but there's a mix of long and short holes. If you compare them to the average PGA tour whole of the same par, there are short. There are four short holes. Two of them are short par four is the other two being short par threes and there are five holes that I would consider notably long. They come in the form of par fours that are at least 486 yards. It's about 50 yards longer than the PGA tour average. And if you look at data golf and their course fit tool shows an emphasis on driving distance, it makes sense based on the hole by hole breakdown, which is something I'm looking at more and more. Although it's really hard ever to look at a layout and say distance is bad or to that distance won't help. But for you know, for for the most part, we're looking at driving distance being a key stat along with stroke skiing approach and then from there. I mean 19 under pretty sure it was Tiger and 19 under then a decade 16 under and then a tie at 13 under. So, you know, not 20. It's not what we saw at the CJ cup where everyone was the par everyone was. Yeah. I think three holes played over par. It was like there's not so I find that golf really boring, but it's not going to be like that. But we still there's still going to be birdie opportunities. We're going to want scoring. So birdie or better eight and then I'm going to factor in putting, but I don't know what the greens are. I will say the the greens at Kasuma Kiseki in Japan for the Olympics were bentgrass. But I know that when I was looking into that, they're different types. So I don't want to assume it's bentgrass, but there's not a whole lot of info there. So again, my key stats are driving distance stroke skiing approach birdie or better rate and stroke skiing putting. So looking at data golf course fit tool, the distance thing stands out a lot there. It also stands out when you look at it in terms of who finished well there because if you look at the top 10 finishers from 2019, I'll just say what year it occurred 2019. The top 10 finishers every single one of them ranked in the top 84 in distance for the PGA tour that season and there were six guys in the top 10 ranked outside the top 100 and driving accuracy. The median ranking for distance was 49th, median ranking for accuracy is 105th and good drives gained was or a good driver was also 107. So a very clear lean towards distance despite that it's not a super long course overall in terms of aggregate distance. It is one that does emphasize distance. So I'm on the same stats here where I want to go for distance. Do you want to look at approach birdies are better gained putting seems like a pretty straightforward event here. Yeah, and if anyone's been listening to the NFL show, Jim and I made a tweak where we can recommend the same players historically would avoid that. We would historically avoid that for the PGA podcast as well. We decided we decided to give it a shot where we could have overlap because it makes sense if we both rank someone first right. We should probably talk about them. Now, if we have overlap, which we do, we'll recommend some pivots, but you know, I just wanted to say we're on the same stats. We're on the same place. So top three are all the same. It was hell. Yeah, because I got to the seat second and I was like, well, he we said we would. Yeah, I said it for a reason. So it's a 78 golfer field that we talk of 12 different dudes. That's kind of that's kind of a lot. So that was the reasoning behind allowing there to be overlap. And I think we should be like going forward to not just for a smaller field, but like the pool of golfers I'd realistically consider this week is not that large. So having 12 guys we talk up as being loves is ridiculous to me. So I'm fine with the overlap. I think that's the right way to have things here. Yeah. And we've got like 14 or 15 guys who play primarily on I guess to be the I can never remember the the name. I think it's yeah, it's got a specific name, but it's also the K I believe, but either way, like, you know, those guys and great time. It's always great to use data golf, but they have a true strokes game query. If you go there, you can kind of get or you can get those adjusted numbers to try to see what their performance on different tours equates to on the PGA tour, basically. And those guys are like all the Japanese players here who are from the JGTO, the Japan golf tour organization. Okay. I must have been thinking of the Sunshine tour, but either way, I think that's either way. Yeah, it's 78 golfers, but it's really 60. It's a lot like a major where like a lot of the guys you're like the masters. Yeah. Yeah, exactly where a lot of the golfers are not dudes you want to consider. Therefore, like the consideration set smaller, the masters is not a no-cut event, but it kind of plays like one from a DFS perspective. So it's very similar in that sense. Yeah. And it's just the way that it works this week. And yes, there's still tons of volatility in a no-cut event. It does get less than just because you give someone like Xander or Morakawa or Hideki four rounds to get things right. You know, let's say one of those guys misses the cut if this is a cut event. It's going to help the weaker golfers stay on top, but that's not going to really work this week. So, you know, it's going to be a bit of a boring week. The one key is going to be whether you try to get two to three of the top sort of five or if you go a little bit more balanced so that you avoid the value plays in general. I think that's just kind of the main conversation for the week. And it is a conversation we will have in just one second, but first basketball is back tonight and FanDuel's free over under contest is back too. It's simple to head over to FanDuel.com slash over under and choose either over or under for each listed prop sounds easy. You can make free picks for a chance to win a share of $5,000. All you got to do to make your picks go to FanDuel before every NBA on TNT broadcast for your shot at a big payday eligibility restrictions apply. Go to FanDuel.com or download the FanDuel app for more details. Now, of course, because they've been here just once to Narsino Country Club. We don't have a lot of course data to look at, but there were some golfers who were here back in 2019. Brandon, who were some of the guys who were here then who performed well? Hideki was runner up. Sungjae was third, but he withdrew. Paul Casey was 17th and he withdrew. So two big withdraws there. But so Hideki was runner up. Ryan Palmer and Xander finished 10th. Keegan Bradley was 13th. Sung Kang was 17th. Collin Moore, Calla Tommy Fleetwood and Adam Schenck were 22nd. Emiliano Grillo, Grillo every time, every time. We always thought it was Grillo and then I changed it to Grillo and then it was Grillo. So sorry, Emiliano. I know you're a big fan of the pod, but I'm trying. Troy Merritt was 30th. Joaquin Neiman, 33rd. Those are the guys who finished top 35 here. And more accounted that in his age 12 season. So big, big for him to finish 22nd there. Do you care much? Because like obviously course familiarity is nice, but it was a couple of years ago now a lot of the guys here are younger. So they are maybe in a different spot in their career now than they were then. But again, familiarity does help. So how much do you care whether or not a guy was here in 2019? Honestly, I would bump it up from a sense of I don't care how they did if they played here. That's helpful. Especially because I don't know, you know, probably not, but you know, let's say Hedek, he got runner up because he putted really well, you know, that's not going to happen. But like, I don't know how guys fared in different things because we're going to have shot link data. But I would say a slight bump to everyone who played here, but I don't care if you haven't played here because I mean, we've seen, we've seen guys debut it courses and finish well. It's just plus the, I would say honestly, Hedeki, Xander, Palmer, maybe Keegan, Morakawa, Fleetwood, Neiman, like the other guys who finished well, I'm not going to care about. Right. Like I'm not bumping up Sean Norris because he played here. Sounds good. Let's actually, I think he's on that. He's on that. He might be on the Japanese tour. Yeah. I think that the overall takeaway is it's okay to bump guys up a bit because they were here, but I would not bump them down because they didn't perform well. And I also would not cross the block would not been here. I think that's the key takeaway for that. Let's dive into current form, talk about golfers with noteworthy form. I'm saying that way intentionally because it's some of the guys I'll be talking about in my section. You've got Lil Xalatoris first looking at his form. What do you see with him? So you and I are selling out for distance. I would assume that's kind of the way that everyone goes just because that's the one stat we can kind of cling to and feel decent about. And we know that Xalatoris has that. He is just consistently gaining distance on the field in all the fields he plays in. He has gained distance on the field in 16 straight events, according to Fantasy National and in 42 of 45 measured events this PGA tour career. When it's been negative, it's basically been like negligible. So we know that he's long. We know that he's going to pick up distance and that's a key stat for this week. But you know, coming off a miscut with neutral t-degree numbers lost 2.4 strokes potting. That's not really what you want to see. However, prior to that, he had finished eighth at the WGC FedEx, St. Jude, 29th at the Wyndham, 11th at the Fortinet and 14th at the Sanderson farms, mostly because this is Will's out towards his game from good ball striking. And here's the thing with Will. We know the putter is iffy. We've seen him. I don't want to say the yips, but we've seen him kind of not be able to convert two footers looking like me out there on the greens from tap and range. But he has gained at least 2.6 strokes putting in three of his past five. So he is shaping up to be a very volatile putter. Volatility isn't always bad if it can come with some semblance of positive volatility. Now, he's not gaining seven eight strokes putting, but two to four can get you there if you can leave the field in t-degree, which he definitely can. So, you know, we got to figure out how we're handling the top golfers this week. I think Xalatoris does plenty to be in the conversation. I just don't know if he's going to be someone I can prioritize. So what are your thoughts on Will's E for the week? So with regards to volatility, I would say volatility is actively good if it means you've got upside. Like I'd rather have, I don't know if I'd rather have someone like Xalatoris who can gain two and a half or lose two and a half. But then someone who's like always at zero, but I think I might just because I need someone to path the upside and it's hard to like win an event with zero strokes gain putting. So I actually think that volatility is an active positive if you have upside and he does, it seems like it could just be that he's grouped together some good events. That's very possible. But I mean, like if it's within his range of outcomes, I'll take it. So I think that from that perspective, I'm good with him. The concern that I have is I can get good distance and more dependability elsewhere, both above and below him from a salary perspective, like Xander's long off the tee. Neiman's long off the tee and those guys kind of sandwiched it from a salary perspective. So I think that Xalatoris is above a couple guys in this range, but I'm not going to put him above Neiman, not going to put him above Xander, not going to put him above Morcawa, despite the fact Morcawa is not as good of a course fit as Xalatoris. He's just a better golfer. So I think that's where I'm at right now. I'm not out on him and I wouldn't mind if I got to him. I would just need to be comfortable with my exposure levels to Neiman and Shafale before I decided to get to Xalatoris. Yeah, I think the thing is you and I are going to be talking up Neiman and Xander. I'll podcast. We have Colin Morcawa as at the time, like, I mean, he opened as the betting favorites. Now co-favorites with Xander at plus 650 and my research shows that the highest salaryed golfer in the favorite, almost always the most popular golfer in the field. So I think between Morcawa, Xander and Neiman, it's a very clear top trio that will emerge as like the chalk. So where I am with Xalatoris is I'm not going to recommend recommend him as my favorite process play, but if I'm really building lineups and factoring in game theory, he would be someone that I would say, you know what? I love Xander most. If he's going to be on 40 to 45% of lineups because it's a small field and Xalatoris will be on 25%. It's close enough where I'd be good with Xalatoris. So that's not the case for everyone up in this salary range. I don't know if you have any examples though. Maybe. Let's have a Ricky Valer who is up in the salary range. He's 11 to he was someone I was kind of referencing when I was talking about Xalatoris like saying I'm not going to put him below everyone in this range. But I got it. Let's talk about Ricky Ricky is 20 to 1 this week actually may be that may have shifted. Ricky is where is he now 28. Okay. So he's lengthened a lot. Everyone's lengthened, but he lengthened a lot. That's appropriate is what I would say Ricky is coming off a third place finished last week did that by just beasting off the T he actually gained five and a half strokes off the T that is his highest mark there since July of 2019. He lost 1.3 on the greens which makes a third place British third place finished pretty impressive. The problem is that he wasn't doing that before this Fowler had lost strokes T to green in four of his previous five measured events. And I think that when you combine that with the third place finished last week combined that with the name value combined that with this being a pretty underwhelming field. I feel like Fowler is the easiest fade in the field of 11 to despite the good finish last week. What about you? Yeah, I mean it's it's promising to see what he did last week because it wasn't filled with the putting although if you really look the putting hasn't always been what you would expect from Ricky. I know what's that not as good as reputation. Yeah, like the assumption is basically that he just is a fantastic putter which historically he has been but the recent finishes haven't really been from putting always actually led the field pretty comfortably in strokes gain T to green last week which is in as a good field that is the most promising thing I could see for Ricky Fowler. But I know enough to know that one event of outlier outlierishly good T to green plays not enough to say hey this is who he is now the distance was good the distance seems to be like maybe it's getting a little bit better so I don't know if there's something he's working on from that perspective but I don't think that it's a week to play Ricky Fowler especially if he will be popular after what he did last week and that is my assumption is that he will be because people we love Ricky we root for Ricky but like from a DFS perspective there are enough red flags here where I will avoid especially because we got Zalatoris we got Neiman got Xander all around him and I like Cam Tringalee more than Fowler Tringalee isn't super long but I think the rest of his game is really solid. So I like him as well. I think that that makes it pretty easy to gloss over Ricky for this week. Let's move to your second golfer. Kyung Hoon Lee is $9,200 his betting odds pretty short relative to his salary and that could get interest. So what do you see with KH Lee recently and can we trust what the betting odds they're saying about him? Well it seems like a lot of people are trusting KH Lee he is second solo second in tags on fansharesports.com behind well he's got it's early so he's got eight tags only one of their golfers more than five and it's actually the guy you're about to talk about so you know current form might might lead to some popularity stuff but yeah Lee is entering with a lot of good like high-end finishes 25th at the CJ Cup 14th at the Shriners did miss the cut at the Sanders and Farms when the putter just got away from him but he was also 12th at the BMW Championship 24th at the Wyndham 6th at the 3M Open in total that's five top five finishes in his last eight starts so that works Lee is in the 78th percentile in my adjusted t-degree data he is about baseline in terms of birdie rate and distance gained so lots of top 25s passable with distance and birdie numbers I see the case for Lee but so does everyone else so where where are you with him I mean I think that he'd be fine if he weren't popular like I'd be okay with him at 92 like he wouldn't be a standout at 92 but like I'd be fine with him and then but then if you add in popularity to a guy with whom I'm fine that makes him pretty easy to avoid and also like that's not a bad range I think it does fall off pretty quickly after him like the 93 94 area is pretty good it gets bad after that so I think I've got good pivots I have reasons to be concerned about him still I think that makes it where he's a you know probably someone where I don't need to get there for this week yeah honestly he didn't pop for me until I was looking into guys with the best current form to talk about or not it's not always best but you know really but like yeah I was like oh this makes sense and then seeing the popularity to projections well they're not specifically projections but lots of buzz around him you don't love to see that whenever you're trying to find some ways to be a little bit different so right for me I'm probably going to pass on Lee because there are plenty of other names in that range to go to and we'll talk about those in the tier right here breakdown later on but for now let's finish up the current form section by talking about CT pond a guy you mentioned is getting some buzz right now as well not the longest guy at the T which could be a downside here but he's been golfing decently well recently pond has had two events since the start of the new PGA tour season he's finished top 12 and both got there in part based on putting but the approach play was good too which is encouraging he gained 4.6 there at the Fort net and 3.1 at the Sanderson farms and the approach play was starting to trend up over the summer as well he now ranks 14th in approach over the past 50 rounds the problem is that he's flawed specifically the distance is kind of concerning he's $9700 sounds like he might be popular are you willing to take Swythe said pond in that range so I don't dislike him specifically but there's enough with the current form and it just hit me that he finished with the bronze medal at Kasuma Gaseki and I feel like there's probably some you know Japanese golf bump there from like a perception perspective so and Xander should have that too is the gold medalist because he's the he's the goat but I think for me the field drops off in the low like low 9000s I have plenty of other options at around 97 where he is so you know I don't I honestly don't care what the profile is if I have what we talk about when it's okay like when it's better to fade popular plays it's whenever there are viable alternatives and I would rather play Jonathan Vegas for an extra hundred and salary I would rather bump down to Chris Kirk or Lonto Griffin so I'm not gonna chase it so that's probably where I am I'd agree that I'm very much okay with not getting there specifically because of Vegas like you mentioned I think that he is the most logical guy in this tier but also there are some guys around 10,000 who I like more like Charlie Hoffman I like more Carlos Ortiz I like more they're both right there or I could jump down to that guys too so pretty easy for me to not get there this week let's take a look at what the bookmakers are saying here as you alluded to Conor Cowan Xander Shafley the co-favorites here the two standouts they're both plus 650 a Fandula sportsbook nobody else shorter than 12 to one which is where you find Hideki Matsuyama was a tourist is 17 to one Joaquin Neiman is 20 to one with Tommy Fleawood at 22 to one Ricky as mentioned is lengthened to 28 to one and there's another teardrop from Fowler down to Johnny Vegas at 33 to one Alex Noran Cameron Tringali Siwu Kim and Maverick McNeely rounding up the top group at 35 to one so let's talk about Xander and more a cow here because I think they're the two obvious ones here how are you handling those two guys and how are you handling things after them this week I am playing Xander I am not going to play more cow simply for the fact of hoping for some variance he is not as good long term as Xander and he's higher salaried by by just a tinge with a hundred dollars he opened as the favorite I would presume he has plenty of popularity on him similar to Xander but for me Xander rates out a lot more likely to win this thing the more a cow which those are probably two of the poster boys of converting wins and deserving wins like I'm not saying more cow doesn't deserve his wins but he converts them Xander is good enough to win them but just hasn't so I think they're a clear cut above everyone else I am going to play Xander I'm probably just going to avoid more cala and hope that he's you know 15th or 20th and just so you know I see the case for both I always see the case for calm more cala despite any concerns but we went distance that's not really more cows game yeah I think I'm actually a little bit different here because I have Xander first but I feel like because the tier drop from them to the rest of field is so large I will have one of them in each lineup because it's really hard for me to like fill out a lineup I feel good about without the minute I know that like from an odds perspective the odds that the perfect lineup doesn't have either than a minute is decently high just because golf is a weird volatile sport yeah I still feel like given the gap between them in the field I'd like to have one of them in each it likely will be where I wind up being underwent a more cala because I'll be heavier on Xander and I'd bet more cows around 40% or so so like I probably won't be at 40 but I think like a 70 30 split favoring Xander is most likely where I'll wind up yeah I think if I was going to do that I would need I would need to do my thing and just leave a hundred in salary and just duplicate the lineup and then swap out Xander to get some more cala because you know you can say hey look I believe one of these two guys is just going to win or as a lock for a top five I don't necessarily know which one again you can still make a lineup work with both and I think that that might very well be my approach in our head to head but if we're talking tournaments because you can roster both I think that will be a very popular combo so I would try to pare down my exposure I think that the overall point is that we'd like both we're higher on Xander and we're probably going to be lower on more cala than consensus I think that's most likely the correct way to phrase it so let's look at the way the odds have shifted since things opened everyone pretty much lengthened but what has been the most noteworthy movement movement you've seen based on the odds of Daniels sportsbook yeah so I'm just going to look at guys who's odds have shortened I think that just makes the most sense Hideki from 14 to 12 from Monday morning into Tuesday morning Will's all at tourist 18 to 17 which is small but he's going kind of against the against the stream Neiman from 22 to 20 Jonathan Vegas 41 to 33 Emiliano Grillo 41 to 36 KH Lee 50 to 41 some small movement for Troy Merritt and Tom Hogy from 100 to 295 Sung Kang 120 to 95 and Brandon Hague he's kind of my boy this week 120 to 100 okay so positive movement for your guy got to make you feel good about that we'll talk about Hage in the tier by tier breakdown as well before that they'll talk about some weather for this weekend there's a chance of rain Friday afternoon the rain odds increase throughout the day and the wind does increase around 10 miles per hour as well that might give a slight edge to those with the earlier tea times on Friday I don't think it's a wave situation but it could be where you maybe bump up the guys who have earlier tea times for Friday things pretty calm the rest of the week so again I'm not going too crazy with this I don't think it's a situation where you like necessarily go crazy but I do think that maybe you bump up guys with earlier tea times Friday I also was I forgot to ask you about lower salary golfers without the standout so let's go back to that I was like distracted by Brandon Hage but which guys are the lower salaries have all the standout to you k.h. Lee I mean I probably would have forgot myself but k.h. Lee is 41 to one at 9200 he's the one who stands out below 9500 but above 9000 and we have some names at 9000 or below and it's all golfers in the upper eights which is the tier we kind of talked about where it really drops off after that I would say it drops off at like 93 94 yeah drops off again after that you're really kind of hoping but Henryk Norlander Harry Higgs both 65 to one and then Sebastian Munoz Garakiego Doug Gimm and Matt Jones all 80 to one and I'm cool with virtually any of the well I'm cool with the all the guys I listed at 80 to one so Munoz Higo Gimm and Jones don't love any of them specifically to the point where like their core plays yeah but I see the case for a lot of these guys so you know it's not it's not the worst week from that perspective we're generally a pro Norlander podcast but he's not very long is that the reason you didn't include him as being a guy you're interested in in that range it's not enough yeah like there are basically six or seven dice rolls down there I got to cut off some of them eventually yeah fair enough okay so let's move now to our player picks here for the Zozo championship once again we're changing things here where we can overlap and both use the same guy which we will take advantage of in the stud tier Brandon who are your two favorites for this week at the Zozo championship do you want me to do both yeah let's do it that way okay Xander and Neiman for Xander the Olympic gold medalist I think is going to give him some popularity bump but he's also the best golfer in this field like statistically no offense to calm or cow with all the wins but Xander has an edge of about almost half a stroke per round according to my long term adjusted recency weighted strokes gain numbers so about I find a better way to like a shorter phrase for that I just lots of latte you figure a latte something like that long adjusted term terminal exit velocity you know I usually just call it adjusted strokes gain but it does wait for recency in there as well but either way about a half a stroke better per round than more cow over the past year and look it's a really weak field I'm not going to overthink I might overthink plan more cow I'm not going to overthink plan Xander and then for Neiman he's the one guy who stands out to me in the sort of secondary tier from a distance and birdie standpoint we know the ball striking is good from Neiman he's long despite being a smaller guy he's been working on his abs eat napikados yeah seems like he's putting on some muscle which you like to see 92nd percent how distance over the past 50 rounds was 33rd here back in 2019 and the putting honestly is is not that bad when you adjust for field strength yeah he's actually to 12th in strokes gain putting the past under rounds based on the numbers of fantasy national not adjusted so like you're not making that adjustment but like that's pretty good for this field actually the same two of my top tier it's Xander and Neiman I just like the way that Xander is is well rounded for this type of event and there aren't a lot of well rounded guys in this field Xander is always well rounded but like it's harder to find this week than usual he ranks 11th or better and distance approach birdies are better gained and putting he's played this course back in 2019 finished 10th there so that's a good bump up for him as well more cow did to but you know just noting that for Xander the form is good he I think he's the safest play in this field but I say that while not using him because he's safe I think it's just a good plus I think I'm here because he can win he's got good upside I think that that's the reason I want to be here for him as a Neiman the distance good he's got the distance you need to hang here he hasn't been as good with his approach play recently less lights out than usual but he's actually gained more than one stroke and approach just once in the past six measured rounds but we know long term he's good there and if that were to snap back in a weaker field I think that we could see even a really good search again so Xander and even if both of us I would mention Tringale as being guy don't mind at 10 eight anyone else you want to shout out here in the upper range yeah Tringale stands out I like I like Hideki and Zalator is fine as as a pivots away and then Charlie Hoffman okay Hoffman is down at 10 one so we're stretching the definition here of studs but what now what we're that's our cost 10,000 for the high salary plays I always put often in my mid-range plays so that's why I said it yeah but he could be in that conversation but I was just thinking I don't know I could probably mention him in the next section so I mentioned him now so who will you mentioned instead of Charlie Hoffman by blatantly disrespecting Charlie Hoffman Charlie Hoffman sorry I saw it I saw Neiman and I figured that was your second play and so I read the next one and that was also Spider-Man meme of our pics yeah well got one more Jonathan Vegas at 98 hundred Vegas is seventh in my combo model which is a snappy way to say that the combination of his long-term adjusted form key stat performance and whole by whole level strokes gain numbers have him seventh in the field if we're looking for distance he's got that if we're looking for birdies he's got that first in both over the past 50 rounds so going back to Vegas tell me about why we like Jonathan Vegas well wow same here he's 98 hundred dollars which feels weird given that I was on him last week in the 7000 range but also these fields are very different he's very good distance is there he is making birdies he ranks 10th and approach he is fifth in the field in true strokes gained over a data golf for the past six months so your numbers and data golf pretty much aligning there as well the putting is still not good but also like he still makes birdies despite that so I find it hard not to go here I'd also mention a guy named Charlie Hoffman is being a upper tier mid-range guy who I don't mind this week I'm glad you mentioned him yeah maybe you've heard of him and I don't mind Ortiz at 99 hundred dollars either I would say or I'd rank it Vegas Hoffman Ortiz okay well we're not done with the mid-range so well I'm at the upper mid-range like you know we two guys we're talking about here in the lower mid-range but I feel like we can also expand there okay I got you I got you hey it's new I mean it's a it's a new format here yeah Hoffman I would go Hoffman Vegas Ortiz in that order yeah that's right who else do you like in the mid-range here Chris Kirk I don't I don't think any of these guys stand out to me from the rest but I have Kirk a little bit higher I mean he's 12th in my combo model despite the fact that that weights in driving distance and he's not very good there but he makes up for it by being in the 68th percent tower better and all four adjusted show scheme stats so that includes off the T because he's more accurate than he is long like again not the right fit for for the course but you know a good golfer and if you adjust his long-term form just kind of under salary from that perspective I think the Kirk works the guy I have above him is Adam shank shank great putter and he is the ability to pop weeks with his approach so I think that that is pretty interesting you also some distance shank is $9300 he ranks 15th in distance 26th in the approach 17th in putting we combine those together it helps him ranked 7th in the field and birdies are better gained the past 50 rounds he gained 4.9 an approach at the Shriners he also put it out of his mind and finished third despite losing both off the T and the and around the green which could be a concern because we do want guys who are good off the T but that's also kind of the reason I like him is because he can win in multiple ways he has multiple paths to bailing himself out should things go awry elsewhere I think that's pretty fun so I think he's got some juice here at $9300 I like shank what are your thoughts on him and anyone else you like in this range I think you're just chasing the 22nd here from 2019 that's the only reason I was on him yeah that's actually number of my sheet is where they finished 2019 I have to have no other data here I made the rest up yeah so shank probably not for me just because I prefer some other names here including Kirk so I'm going to ask if you want to Kirk versus shank head to head love one which would just confirm that Adam shank will have more fandal point I took the bet was that I could confirm that he'd win Jim just demolishes me in the head to head bets that we make on the podcast but I would have Kirk over him I would have Luke List over him I would have Matt Wallace over him and I would have Lonto Griffin over him I like Wallace list Wallace where's Wallace for you where's Wallace where's Wallace string I think I'd even consider like a list over Kirk bet I'm not going to do that one cause I you already offered me shank and I prefer shank but like I like I like listed decent amount and he's almost dead last of the field the strokes gave putting shocker but you know hey it's fine it's cool I said I said he's one of my guys I said Chris Kirk is basically just one of the guys in this tier and I just happened to pick him just because so I review him and Luke List about the same so I would not accept that okay so I'm higher and I'm shank than you what you're saying where do you put Wallace comparison we said you I'm pretty sure you said you would consider a Luke List versus Chris Kirk bet which I wouldn't yeah where do you sit on that Wallace like ranking wise among these guys compared to list specifically a little bit higher on Wallace just based on what my combo model says I have a list more likely to win but I also fear for Luke List from a short game standpoint why would you fear for his short game confused not short game but potting specifically his wedges are fine crooked tooth on YouTube says they need help with their DFS lately it's been so so pretty good pretty good crooked tooth let's move now to the value plays 9,000 and lower let's help crooked tooth get those line-ups be more than so so what do you feel for this week in the value range well if you're I don't know if this is the right range I like I'm struggling with this because this is something that I mentioned at the top where I think after what was that like six names we talked about and I'm going to Kudai I'm shank I'm fine with him to the point where I would like I would play him but better be I think there's a teardrop below those names we just were discussing so I'm going to mention Doug him as a love from guys below 9,000 on Fandall but it's just important that we don't get out over our skis with value plays in our line-ups because these guys can very easily just fall way off the map game has a clear path to finishing well that is because he's very good to green for the salary he's in the 80th percent how and my long-term adjusted stroke scheme key degree key degree numbers over the past year he's not long though he's not a good putter he's a horrible putter so like I could make that I could make a better case for Doug Gimm than a lot of golfers below 9,000 but I don't really feel like I can plant a flag in any go for below 9,000 this week which makes it really scary because we do want Xander we do limited exposure per lineup to the value place what I think that I want to do is have one guy below 8,000 or below 9,000 in each lineup and do whatever I can with that if I can use one guy down there and have one guy who do who does who do as well um like you have pregnant had again your list $8,000 so I put him in I can go with a more cow or with a with a Xander neem in lineup and that's fine yeah if I'm relying exposure level to those plays will naturally be lower um yeah I think that that's kind of my thought process for this week yeah um I was considering going with Hague who I'll talk about um and Wyndham Clark as well he's I think 7,700 is his salary yeah they can just nuke it and that's kind of what we're looking for so I could easily justify saving an extra 8 800 to 1,000 in salary from this year that we're about to talk about prominently however I do feel that the risk is a lot greater but there's there's floor I mean there's no floor for any golfer um in any field but you know it's I think I'm with you where I will probably wind up heavier on Hague and Wyndham Clark just because I will have one of them in a lineup not every lineup obviously but like put one of those in there in a lineup it opens up a ton I think that's probably things um my first value golfer is Gary Hague he his approach play doesn't appear to be a strength right now but does everything else well enough to be in consideration here 8 900 dollars he's long off the tee he ranks 14th and distance past 50 rounds 17th and putting 15th and birdies are better gained the approach is a concern but like as you mentioned with Gim like there are a lot of guys here down down here who have concerns um and at least you can make up for it so I'm still okay with him I think he's my top guy in the upper 8,000 range that got me most willing to go to but he also doesn't really fit that approach of like finding a guy with a lower salary and then plugging in guys at $93 are lower so maybe I should adjust from Higo like so so I've I've Gary Kigo is one of my others to consider on my primer on number fire I think he's like Matt Jones could again kind of flip a coin and just put one of those in a line up a few them very similarly but for Higo like he gets a boost from distance the irons aren't great the wedges aren't great and at that rate like so his long-term adjusted form is not that different than like a Roger Sloan at 8400 I was going to talk about Sloan actually I think that's Sloan is a guy who I'd be willing to consider I think the chest and Hadley is also someone to be willing to consider as like a lower 8000 type guy who can move the needle a bit more in terms of giving more more flexibility he's got I mean yeah Hadley's got above average distance like Kyle Stanley is a better golfer than the salary indicates but it's not a good fit for him right so yeah I don't know I think I think ultimately what I might end up doing with my lineup core is like I see the case for he go and game and Jones but the more I look at this maybe it's just a week where you plug in Clark a Haguey yeah Hadley and just take the extra savings because there's not I mean and usually if you play DFS week after week you see a dropoff like below 88 87 not really there it's a little bit higher this week so might as well save some salary so I think talking through that got me higher on Haguey and Clark specifically talking about Haguey and we'll go from there so the the case that I'm kind of laying out for for Haguey and Clark is that if you're going for a lower salary play you might as well go for someone who has a path to really picking up strokes off the tee with distance because that's something that can play the most obvious way for golfers to separate this week based on what we've seen in 2019 and sure it could happen where you know distance doesn't matter as much as it did in 2019 or that these guys just struggle everywhere else but the thing is every golfer below 9000 struggles with something might as well take the guys who can gain distance for short because distance doesn't go away week to week it's pretty stable it's strokes off the tee is the most stable stat of the of the four so for me I'm kind of looking for those guys as my like key value options Hage's 99th percentile and distance gained dead last and fairways gained over the past 50 rounds according to Fantasy National bad irons but again it's just kind of my thought process with a lot of unknowns just going for selling off for distance for some of these guys yeah so let's talk about Hadley for a second year not a big distance guy but he's 30th in distance he's not bad there not bad as approach play but a really good putter and that could allow him to make some birdies here I think just because like the field is not great by any means Chesson Hadley $8000 not opposed to going there I don't mind Hage either just because like you said the distance works even though the approach is bad he can still make birdies because the distance is good not a bad putter I think that adds up I'd prefer Hage over Clark personally by a pretty decent margin I would say Roger Sloan is 84 I think that that's low enough where he's least consideration for this type of build not the longest guy at the tee but he can make some birdies as well and then the other one I would say a little bit higher but like if you I mean if you want to be this range I do like Pat Perez he withdrew two weeks ago he had a foot injury he was on the 18th hole for a second round he actually was really good the first round on the 18th hole put it in the water and just like withdrew I think you just like done like getting out of here is like almost dark and stuff like that I don't know how much of a concern that foot is so if you want to be 86 I do like Perez but again I think the better way to build is to go one lower salary guy who has a path to doing something and then doing the rest in there do want to ask you Wesley Brian coming off a wrist injury he has not played since june-ish I don't think maybe it's been a long time it's his first event off of a wrist injury any interest in him at seventy four hundred dollars given we have no idea what he looks like right now I'm pretty sure I've seen him playing some golf on Instagram he and his brother have an account that's pretty good if I'm not mistaken there I usually not that tuned in when I'm scrolling through some Instagram which is is pretty rare but I feel like if you're coming back you're ready I could see the case for that Tyler McComber is also minimum salary at seven thousand okay he is in the ninety-fifth percent island driving distance red flags elsewhere but I mean again if you're selling out for distance and just taking that approach plug in McComber see what happens again I would say like one of these guys not multiple because the odds both of them hit are very very small um let's see each pick one one guy as like your your value play you plug in who are you going with if you have one probably Hagey okay if I need to go below eight thousand I think it would probably at this point just be McComber because it's fully minimum salary yeah I might do Chesson could go badly he's not long but badly for Hadley yeah well had a good run I think I might go Chesson a bit over those guys but I understand I think the Hagey is definitely number two for me so I think that's the way to build for this week is find a guy you can tolerate who is lower and gives you flexibility hope to make the cut I'd be okay differentiating down there just like not tie yourself too heavily to those guys with across lineups but yeah fine guys you think have a path to some upside fine guys you can see finishing well in that that range plug them in go nuts at the top and then see where you are there again not total puns they need to be guys with a path but I think that's the right roster construction for this week finish up with our windpicks here for the Zozo based on the odds over at Fandall Sportsbook Brandon who do you have your eye on for this week from that perspective you won the well we can we can overlap here but it's going to be for sure walking Neiman is one of them okay walking Neiman is 20 to one over at Fandall Sportsbook you've got him might be dumb but I kind of want to go Jonathan Vegas at 33 to one I'm going to take him you're just going to make me spell Jonathan you can say Johnny I was already Johnny on the rundown because I don't want to figure out I always think there's two ends in the beginning and that always trips me up and I just typed it with two ends I cannot commit it to memory I don't no matter how many times I've typed in my life who do you want for your other one in Tringoli I like it I was considering that too I think that Tringoli is a good pick Tringoli right now 35 to one at Fandall Sportsbook so your picks are Neiman at 20 to one and Tringoli at 35 to one I will go at Johnny Vegas at 33 to one and there's another name I was considering around there probably Hoffman lengthened to 40 to one kind of okay that I'll take him at 41 41 to one I'll take Hoffman there who was the other guy you were considering Hoffman okay cool I like that so because we can't quite get to Xander and more Kawa this week I end up jumping down a bit I think that in if they if you assume they don't win it's more of a wide open events I'm okay like taking some longer shots than I usually take on those guys yeah so I run a win simulation model and it shows Xander well more Kawa way overvalued Xander overvalued Hideki overvalued and if you have three overvalued favorites like pretty significantly a lot of golfers look like they have positive expected value so it's a week where I'm living in that 20 to 30 to 40 range with my I think that's probably right to play things here so we have good plans of attack I think for both DFS and for betting for this week so let's send people off to fill out their lineups that is all that we have here for today on the heat check fantasy podcast but a lot of good stuff here on the number fire daily fantasy podcast because the NBA is back and Tom Beckio has you covered every week there the daily ice of course for the NHL players as well the daily deek is up every week day also so NHL NBA cover both here on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed of course the NFL week 6 recap podcast as opposed yesterday morning talking about some under salary guys week number 7 because we will need them to stack cheese Titans so talking about that there week 7 preview goes up on Thursday 10 am on the Fandall YouTube page and up on the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed after that so make sure you are subscribed to the number fire daily fantasy podcast feed wherever you get your podcast and while you're there leave us a rating interview as well Brandon if people have questions for you on Twitter where can they find you there? Matt Goodwill 13 G.D. U.L. A. 1 3 and I am at Jim Sonnis J.I.M. S.A. N.N.E.S. You can also follow the Fandall podcast network at Fandall podcast big thank you to everyone for tuning in forward today good luck to you with your D.F.S. lineups we'll talk to you once again next week this has been a heat check fantasy podcast powered by number fire