 Hello everyone, welcome back to a new video on dentistry and more. In this video, I will be explaining you about the effectiveness of our lockdown. We started on March 24th and it's still going on and it's going to end by March 31st. So all these data which I am going to show you it's taken from ICMR data or other official health statistics. So all these are very valid data. So let's see the total confirmed cases in India. So that is it was 500 on the day before our first lockdown that is March 24 that was around 500 cases and it has increased to a value of 1 lakh over a period of almost around 450 days. So now it is almost 1 lakh 20,000 today that is May 24th. So we can see a increasing the number of cases by 200 times over this lockdown period. So the increase was not very huge when we compare the number of cases with the other countries like Italy and USA. So we take these countries as these were the two main countries hit by COVID-19 so badly. So we start by first week that is 50 cases reported on 10th March on all countries. That was on 22nd Feb in Italy and 25th Feb in USA. So after 10th week the number of cases in India was 74,000 that is around 75,000 but in USA it was almost 10 lakh and in Italy it was 2 lakh. So why was it happened what was the reason for this drastic difference in the number of cases that was the lockdown effect. So in India the lockdown started when the cases were around 500 but in USA it was 50,000 and in Italy it was 20,000 or 21,000. So this was the turning point in number of cases. So India could have done it very early the lockdown started at very early but in USA it started only at 50,000 so the total number has become 10 lakh and Italy it has become 2 lakh and the lockdown started when the cases were 20, 21 or 22,000. So the proportional increase you can see. So this was the part where India had an upper hand compared to the other countries. So since the first case was reported in India in Kerala the southern state and later in Feb and over March beginning the cases slowly started appearing but whereas it has become a pandemic in all, pandemic and it has reported in most of the countries. So India had a notion that it is going to become a very serious issue in the future. So India started the lockdown very early when 500 cases were there. So that was a big impact in reducing the number of cases and the death. So let's see the number of deaths happened in these countries. So if you take the first week as index that is number of deaths were 5 on the first week that is 20th March India reported just 5 deaths and in USA it was 2nd March and 24th Feb in Italy. So after 9th week the number of deaths in Italy were around 23,000 whereas in USA it was 55,000 but in India it was just 2,800. So that was the difference. That was also due to the early starting of our lockdown and we have to think that India is a country with 1.3 billion population around 130 crores of population with lots of slums and highly density that is population density is very huge in some states. So all this considering this is a big impact of lockdown compared to these countries where the total population will be one half or one third of the Indian population. So always seeing that the number of tests being done is very low compared to other countries that is true. Now India is testing 1 lakh per day but it was around 3,000 or 4,000 at the beginning around the March beginning period but now it has increased around 30 times. We are testing a more number of cases now that is one of the reasons the cases are very highly reporting in nowadays because it is most of the cases will be in symptomatic states and the more number of tests we do and we get more number of cases. So now India is testing 1 lakh per day that becomes one among the three testing ratio in the world. So that is why India is reporting lots of cases but the problem is the doubling rate. The doubling time is the lowest in India. Doubling time is nothing but the days taken to double the cases if it was 5,000 the number of days taken to take to become 10,000. So more the doubling time it means that the rate is very low lesser the doubling time the progression is very fast. So we can see that the progression is very fast the doubling time is all it is like 40 days in other UK and the United States but in India it is just 13 or 14 days. The total confirmed cases that is 81 in May 25th and it is around 1,000 in April 14th and 2,300 in May 3rd and it is around 5,000. So per day the cases are on an increasing rate so there is no bending the curve bending means the number of cases reported will be lesser than the previous day. So there is no bending the curve happened in India there is a increase or there is increase in the cases day by day. So during the lockdown 4.0 there is around 5,000, 6,000 cases per day. So what if we say the flattening of the curve? So the flattening of the curve happened maybe in the southern state Kerala they had literally bend the curve and flattened the curve before the migrants started to enter the state they had literally flattened the curve there were cases there were no cases in few days and they had bend the curve very drastically but what happened was when the migrants started from the hotspot areas in and around the country and outside the country the cases are started to increase. So in India there is no flattening of the curve and there is no bending of the curve it is going on a ascending order. So what is the situation of India right now? So in most of the countries the peak has started to descend in USA or Italy or Spain in Germany all the countries the curve has become on a descending phase that is the number of cases are there but still it is going downwards it slowly slowly go downwards but in India it is on an ascending limb for a couple of weeks we may face or we may see a lot of increasing in the cases and flattening and or the bending of the curve may take time in India. So we will come to the point was the lockdown was effective or not? To an extent it was effective because we started very early so we could reduce the number of cases and number of deaths very drastically if it was very late like April mid or April first week the number of cases and number of deaths would have been so much more. So if you ask me was the lockdown was a solution for this COVID-19 it was not at all a solution for COVID-19 it was just a strategy to help the people and the health system to get prepared to a situation where we should live with the COVID cases because it is almost impractical to remove all the cases in near future so it might take 6 to 8 months or any year. So we should live in a situation where the patients are around so the sanitization and social distancing should be the key in the future time. So what we can do is we need to have a exit plan from the lockdown we cannot extend our lockdown for another 5 to 6 months till the last COVID case is getting cured so it is not practically possible in the present scenario. So all we can do is to have a exit plan from the COVID so we need to have a exit plan so that the people can live at least with a job or to have something in hands to meet their ends. So the backup plan or the exit plan is very important in the next phase of this pandemic so that is what the real strategy rather than the lockdown. So if you ask the lockdown was effective as it was effective you need to have a exit plan and if the plan of extending the lockdown or the lockdown 5.0 without a proper exit plan would be disastrous thank you.