 Week seven was an absolute mess. There was a lot of bad football. There were a lot of bad games. There was some bad weather. It had pretty much everything. There were some injuries too. So just a weird week overall. Today we're gonna go through all of it and recap what it means for DFS, try to find our footing for week number eight, go through some Sours Week eight, and get you set for what it all means for NFL DFS. Welcome on into the Heat Check Fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire. That's right here on the FanDual Podcast Network and NumberFire.com. My name is Jim Sonnis. I am a senior writer and analyst for NumberFire.com. Joined here as always by Brandon Gondula. He is the managing editor for NumberFire.com. Brandon, week seven was a strange one. How are you doing today? I mean, that's always a hard question to answer just philosophically and existentially anyway, but after this past week it's even- It is deep as you want. It's even harder. Not a whole lot went the way that I was hoping it went. And by hoping, I mean just the way that my analysis said it would go, it happens. I'd say there's probably one or two weeks each year where you just look back and you're like, what did I even get right? Yeah. So what I could do, what I should have done probably is just talk about how I love the Kyle Pitts, Mike Gasicki, like tight end stack. Sure. I mean, we could do that. There are other ways to do it. I think that like, if you had told me on Thursday, that week seven would be terrible for me, I would have said, okay, it's probably because I was too low on the heavily favored teams. But you look at the players and perfect lineups. Only two of them, Cooper Cup and Mike Evans were on those heavily favored teams. Everyone else was in a tighter game except for DeAndre Swift who was actually a massive underdog. So three out of the nine options and perfect lineups were in the closer games. Oh, this late. So I could have seen this being a bad slate for me. This is just not the way I thought it would happen, I guess. Like I thought, okay, maybe I'd stack the wrong guys and the cheese Titans games and then like that. I didn't really know. Like I try to ask myself always, like what are the paths to this going poorly? And I can usually figure out a way. I would not have guessed that like the cheese just fell on their faces. And Derek Henry's game script was too positive. Leonard Fournette's game script was far too positive. I would not have guessed those as being the ways that I was wrong this week. Yeah, if, so if I was doing the same thing and it was, hey, you know, it just wasn't a good week, I would say, okay, that means most likely that cheese Titans wasn't what I thought it was going to be, which it wasn't. Correct. And then I would have gone to the big favorites and that would have been wrong. I actually was looking at some Jamar Chase and just some Ravens overall. And I was like, you know what? We talked about the pace there. It's a divisional matchup. Those games can be, and it started off pretty slowly for my recollection. And then, you know, like, it always, it always sucks to say, you know, well, if you take Jamar Chase's like long touchdown out, it wasn't that, but like, it's always unfortunate whenever you do fades a situation and someone just like. Like I had Chase, but he was tied to Lamar in every life. Yeah. I mean, I think that that might have been something for me too is like, I know we don't want to get too spread at a quarterback, but I think 60% of my quarterback lineups were either Mahomes or Tannehill, which Tannehill was fine. But then he was tied to Tyreek Hill or Daryl Williams and like that each time. So maybe spreading out my games more might be more effective. I don't know. So that just comes down to probabilities and what you're seeking. If you're looking for a higher floor, even in your tournament lineups in terms of your overall exposure, then yeah, mixing that up more is going to be helpful. But if you are willing to be more concentrated, that's like whenever you have lineups with Jamar Chase, you want to make sure that, or whenever, I guess a better example is whenever you have a lineup with a quarterback who has a big game, you want to maximize the chances that one of those lineups actually had Jamar Chase in it as opposed to, you know, like two to three lineups of every quarterback, then the probability that you hit on the Jamar Chase lineups are a lot lower. And it goes down like exponentially. And I'm not a math guy, but I've learned enough about probability to know that like one or two quarterbacks that you can take out of your lineups just helps the chances that you... And it's not that polar where like I wouldn't be going like, oh, every quarterback maybe not 60% tied to one game. Yeah, I'm just saying like, you and I have been a lot more concentrated at quarterback than I think most people. And so if people listening are already more like playing six or seven quarterbacks and they're thinking maybe they spread it out more, I would advise against that even though you have weeks where you don't really hit on the quarterbacks. Yeah, I just divorced myself from one game, I think is the key takeaway for me. We're going to break down headlines, injuries, role changes, and take a look at Week 8 in just one second, but first NBA is back. And so as FanDuel is free over under contest and simple just head over to FanDuel.com slash over under and choose either over or under for each listed prop. You can make free picks for a chance to win a share of $5,000. All you got to do to make your picks is go to FanDuel before and free NBA on TNT broadcast for your shot at a big payday, eligibility restrictions apply, go to FanDuel.com or download the FanDuel app for more details. Let's dive in here to our week seven headlines here and the big one is the cheese offense because I think in general we have been hesitant to overreact the cheese in large part because they've still been good. Like despite the turnovers, their offensive efficiency numbers are still really absurd. And we know that turnovers can be flukey. So that's why we were so heavy in the scheme. That's why we're so heavy on the cheese. And it bankrupted me on Sunday. Mahomes checked and cleared for a concussion. He was actually at the post game press conference, which means he did not have a concussion, probably means he will play week number eight, but really struggling before that negative 0.12, passing that expected points per dropback at the time of his injury. He is at 0.24 for the full season, which is still double the league average, but it's weird and that does account for turnover. So the turnovers are baked into that number as well. So we've been pretty calm with the chief's offense all year and that's definitely paid off at times. Like they were great last weekend's Washington, totally fine there from a DFS perspective, didn't pay off here. So what's your view of the chief's going forward after another disappointment on Sunday? I feel like the answer just efficiency wise is to stay the course and keep going back there, but there are some concerning trends, not necessarily even within the team's offense. I was trying to pull up their turnovers in their red zone because it feels like they've had a good number of red zone turnovers, but three it looks like, so that's still pretty high. But I was looking at, I was watching that game on red zone and I just noticed more and more that the team was just playing way off the line of scrimmage, the Titans, and not really blitzing, which we know we've seen teams do against the chiefs, but I was trying to figure out, sometimes we have that narrative where the other teams are definitely playing Mahomes differently, but according to next gen stats, the NFL average for the percentage of plays where a quarterback faces a blitz among quarterbacks with at least 100 pass attempts is 26.4% this season. Patrick Mahomes is being blitzed at a 10.7% clip and nobody else is below 17.2% and only four total passes are below 20%. So it's a really big outlier in terms of Mahomes and his percentage of plays where he's facing a blitz. For last season by contrast, he was at 21%, so a lot closer to the NFL average. Now, what I need to say is that Kyrie Kill and Travis Kelsey aren't really facing more cushion. The chiefs are not being blitzed very heavily and surprisingly, the percentage of plays where Hill and Kelsey are double teamed according to next gen stats is a lot lower than it has been in the past. So it does seem like it's a kind of, I don't wanna say teams have figured out the chiefs, but they're facing collectively through seven weeks now, they're facing some pretty distinct trends. And so it's not to do with the fact that I don't believe in Patrick Mahomes because even with, this is probably the worst Patrick Mahomes could play and he's still twice the NFL average in efficiency, but it is concerning because we've seen teams try to limit the downfield pass against Kyrie and Murray in the past and it's hard to throw downfield and force it, which seems like maybe is what's happening with Mahomes. So efficiency wise, I don't see any reason to change, but if there's a clear difference in what they're facing, like that's kind of, it's careless not to take that into account. So we talked about this a lot with the like the Chargers last year at the Rams where teams basically just say you're not gonna be this deep. And it seems like every team has taken like that Vic Fangio style of defense is playing against the Chiefs regardless of what their like overall defensive philosophy is and it forces the Chiefs to change the way they play. So that's like a concern because like you're saying teams are playing differently, they have to adjust. If I were to put trust in any head coach to figure that out, any play card figure that I'd be Andy Reed, especially because like they've got the personnel to make that work. And I think the route to making that work would be like more Travis Kelsey used. We haven't seen a whole lot of that this year. Like honestly, I haven't used a ton of Kelsey just because he seems to have been lacking, I don't know. It's a field type of thing. He just feels like less explosive from a, I don't know from a production perspective, but like the volume has been there. He has a double digit targets in four out of seven games. Just hasn't gotten a lot of deep work. So I think to me, maybe this means if I'm trying to get inside the head of Andy Reed and get inside of the head of someone trying to gain plant against these like too high defenses and be okay, they're probably gonna lean on Kelsey more. So maybe that'd be the adjustment I make is as opposed to going all Tyree kill all the time or like, you know, 60% Tyree kill in my Chief stacks. Maybe I changed that to be 45% Tyree kill, 45% Kelsey, and then 10% garbage. I don't know. I think that like that's a way that they might wind up attacking opposing teams. And that one's still heavy on Hill because Hill still has the highest upside on this team by a wide margin, no matter what the defense is doing. Cause like the Eagles play that way and he obliterated them. So like they can still beat that. So I think that maybe I would just shift my ratios a bit to be heavier on, heavier than I have been on Kelsey relative to Hill, but still being Hills as a slight favorite there. Yeah, I was very, very heavy on Tyree kill because of the downfield splits we've seen. And they've faced three teams inside the top six and yards per target allowed on downfield passes. And those were the three games where Hill was mostly kept in check. They faced three teams entering last week outside the top 20. And those are the three games where he had big games. The Titans were 20 or they were 31st on downfield passes in terms of yards per target allowed entering this game. So I figured, hey, this might be the recipe. They're not clicking whenever teams are actively trying to limit the downfield pass. And I thought this was a spot where I could gain some leverage because we've seen Tyree kill against similar defenses in terms of defending the deep ball, just go off. And that's not really what happened yesterday. He had no downfield targets. Yeah, he had none Byron Pringle at three though. There you go. Like that's concerning is in that spot where you would say, hey, Tyree kill is going to get a lot of downfield work. He didn't get any. They needed to buy. When is their buy? I don't know if it's like the win-loss record that's like causing them to press as much too. Yeah, that could be something, you know, where they were playing fine before, but then they felt like they needed to play harder and are pressing now and it's leading to some issues. Their buy is not until late November. Woof, woof, woof, that ain't great. I don't know. I think the big thing for me is I'm still gonna be going towards them, but maybe I'll just shift a little bit towards Tyree or Travis Kelsey than I have been to account for the fact that they may be trying to beat these like, can't get beat deep defenses. I still want to be heavier on Hill due to what he can do, but maybe that's the one alteration. Any final thoughts for you on the Chiefs? So they're what, Monday night next week? Thankfully. Yeah. So we don't have to worry about that on the main slate, but maybe if we see them struggle against the Giants, then maybe their salaries will eventually will come down. Maybe, yeah, we'll see. Let's move now to the injuries from week number seven, starting off with one that hurt a lot. Miles Sanders is carted off. He had an ankle injury. Kenneth Gainwell played half the snaps in a negative game script. Boston Scott stepped in and played 34%. Scott had more carries, seven to five over Gainwell. He had three red zone carries compared to Gainwell's one, but Gainwell had eight targets. Scott had two and Gainwell also had a red zone target and scored while Miles Sanders was still healthy. So let's say Sanders probably gonna miss time here. How are you viewing Kenneth Gainwell in this backfield? It almost feels like how I would view Miles Sanders in a way, but with less certainty, he would get goal line rushing work. So it's weird because he might play the majority of snaps, but be more of the receiving back so I guess it'd be like a Chase Edmonds sort of situation to some degree. So all that is to say, I don't like him enough from a DFS standpoint to prioritize him unless the salary is super low. Yeah, I think that's probably a good comp, Chase Edmonds, just because like, although like the good thing for Gainwell is he did get some goal line work in week one when they were facing Atlanta. And like Boston Scott's not really a goal line type back either, but they could activate someone to account for that. So I don't know. They are facing Detroit this week. That's a game we'll probably have interest in. Name that salary for Kenneth Gainwell if we assume Miles Sanders sits. Honestly for me, he'd still have to be in like the 6,300 range. I thought 66, just because the passing game work is nice and he is 59. Okay, so I have a feeling he might be below 6,000 still which I think is fair all things considered. However, that doesn't mean it's not a spot where it's like, oh, he's 59 so I'm gonna write him down. Actually I don't have any paper with me so I have to type these ones down today. Yeah, I think he's a check back on this guy later. Not an automatic, but like a check back later. I would bet that he will be more popular than I'm comfortable with, but if I need the sour savings, we might wind up there. I think people Twitter loves Kenneth Gainwell and I get it, but it's tough I think. Yeah, also Detroit, so that'll get people there. Three and a half point road favorite in a dome, high total for relative to the- It's kind of a bad game. There's not a lot of fun games on that slate, so it's not a bad one. Same game, Josh Jacobs ruled out due to a chest injury. Sounds like he'll be okay, at least avoided a serious injury, but Kenny and Drake led with a 40% snap rate. Jelona Shard also played 24% of the snaps. Drake had 14 carries, three targets and 79 yards. The thing worth noting here is that Peyton Barber is a healthy scratch. If Jacobs were to miss a game, I would bet that Barber is active and that would probably alter things quite a bit. Any interest here if Jacobs missed this time? Again, like the Gainwell thing, great for season long. This spot, probably good for Kenny and Drake season long wise, but we have a 12 game main slate. That's a pretty heavy main slate. Are they on the main slate? They're on a buy. I was gonna say they're probably on a buy. Honestly, by the time they'll be back on the main slate, but let's say that they were on the main slate this week, I still think it's a spot where I would be hesitant to wanna buy into Kenny and Drake for all the reasons you said. It'd be 18 carries, no targets for Peyton Barber, like five carries and eight targets for, five carries and so let's say six targets for Kenny and Drake, it'd be rough. Zach Wilson left the Jets game due to knee injury. Robert Solis said they would know more today, but didn't sound season ending by what he said. Sounds like Wilson probably in this couple of weeks, which is good that he's not gonna miss more time because there'll be a bummer to miss that development time. Ty Johnson was checked for a concussion and did not return. Michael Carter had a big role with Johnson being out. He had 11 carries and nine targets, turned it into 104 yards, looked pretty good, but like it might be Mike White starting. Doesn't sound like McHide back to this close to returning just yet. White was at negative 0.14, passing that expected points per drop back. So Johnson may miss time, however it may be with Mike White a quarterback. So how would we view Carter if Wilson and Johnson are both out? Probably another spot where I would say, good for season long, probably not relevant for DFS, especially if Ned Schneebley is your quarterback. So who? Ned Schneebley. What is that? You ever see School of Rock? No. Oh my. I did watch The Holiday, which has Jack Black in it like a week ago. Does that count? No. Okay. Man, you gotta watch School of Rock. You love holiday movies. You should be excited that I watched The Holiday. Yeah, but you should watch School of Rock. I don't like music. It's very uplifting. You'll love it. I don't like uplifting. But, okay, on a more serious note, I don't think I could play a jet in DFS like. Now, they are against the Bengal. They're hosting the Bengals next week. 44 point total, eight and a half point spread. Their team total, eight and applied total is 17.25. That's too high. Give me the under. Tired in the Texans. That's fair, but like, it shouldn't be 17. Like if Fandle doesn't have team totals up yet, I'd guess. But if they had that, I would take it right now without a hesitation with Nozak Wilson. Like, is that game down? Did they take that game down? No, it's still there. Okay. Yeah, they don't have team totals up yet. That'll be like Tuesday or so. Also, if it's the 44 and eight and a half, that'd be 17.75, right? Yeah. Under. Yeah. Under. I agree. It would need to be an extreme situation because like, Tevin Coleman is also out this week. He'll probably back next week. Like, I don't see enough here to really get excited. And like, even on like the one PM only slate, that's still two, like eight games. Yes. We're gonna move on. The Jets are stupid. Johnny Smith, Johnny Smith, Johnny Smith left earlier with a shoulder injury. Hunter Henry scored again. He's, I think he's gonna force her against the touchdown. Ran around on 25 of 42 drop backs. They did pull starters in the fourth quarter because they were too good. So if Johnny misses time, that does open up like three-ish targets per game because Johnny was had no role effectively. Would you be in it? Anybody here of Johnny were to miss time? I think I would start to consider Henry simply for the fact that he does have a presence in the red zone. And we've seen him get 1.3 downfield targets per game over the past three games. And I'm not, I'm not trying to say that Hunter Henry is an elite tight end, but we're always looking for tight end options, even on a fuller slate. They play the Charger, so it's a revenge game next week. So name that. Hunter Henry, I was trying to think of who's it? Okay. The guy you're talking about. Idiot. So I feel like I'll probably be a little bit higher on Henry than you, but name that salary for Hunter Henry. You could do a lot worse at tight end than his peripherals right now, even though we don't love this offense. Yeah. Probably like 56. I think that's where he was his past week. I think that's about right. He's 55. Okay. That's fair. Like that's a consideration. Yeah. Am I like jumping over the counter to get there? No, but like, you know, it could be worse. Hey, that's what I'm talking about with tight end though. We're looking for... Sorry, I was trying to update. I realized that I hadn't changed home road in my sheet here. So I should probably do that before I give out some dumb takes. But, you know, that it's enough of a role for Hunter Henry, especially if Johnny were to miss time. Yeah, it's enough. It would not push me anymore towards like Jacoby Myers or anything like that. Correct. Oh, so I feel like people will wonder why we're not talking about, are we talking about Damien Harris at all later? His role didn't change. Yeah. He's just defective. Like there was no role change. So yeah, that's kind of how I view it too. But I figure bigger game people want us to... He had 18 adjust opportunities. He just happened to be good on them. Like it's the same role. Also on Red Zone, I just... Somebody played some sprinkles of the Jet's D. Sprinkles? Yeah. Good for you because... Yeah, but it just felt like every five minutes, the Patriots were like inside the 20. It's like, well, I have no confidence that they're not gonna score and they just basically scored every time. Jokes on me because I couldn't play the Tennessee defense for $100 less. So, good job, Jim. Mike Davis got hurt late in Atlanta's game against the Dolphins. He had four carries and no targets, while Cordero Paterson wound up with 14 carries and five targets. Cordero played 73% of Atlanta's snaps. Now it's worth noting that snap rate was not inflated because of Davis's injury. He was at 83% like the first half. So, he actually was getting a legit role before Mike Davis got hurt and then that led to a lot of goal line work for Cordero late in that game. So, let's talk about this both ways. I think that there's one view where Davis misses time, but also one if he doesn't, how would you view Cordero Paterson right now for the Falcons? Okay, so let's say, let's make it simple and say Davis is out. Sure. Paterson's salary was 8,000 on Fandle. I did not get there at all. Correct. This past week, even with a more extensive role in a great red zone role, I would be a little bit hesitant to go much past 8,000 just because this offense, Matt Ryan threw some downfield this week and it didn't look as bad as it had been, but I'd still have some concerns. Their total though is 25, which is probably totally average for next week. Yeah. Average is actually 23.2, so one of the better projections. I would still have a hard time getting to 8,000 because I would imagine on a 12-game slate we have more running backs, of course, I haven't broken down the slate enough, but I would say like 75. Yeah, probably about that, because we look at snap rates a lot, but I tend to look at yardage because I want to know there's a baseline upon which to build if you score a touchdown. That's kind of the way I want to view it. So I want touchdown variance break in my favor, but I want it to matter. Like if you get 30 yards in touchdown, who cares? If you get me 110 yards in touchdown, if that does matter, Cordero in six games this year has 100 plus yards, three times, but also 67, 69, 61, and the other three. So he's probably gonna wind up being someone who is averaging, well, I may have to tell you, his average yardage is 88.2 per game. That goes up, that projection goes up with the snap rate increasing because he'll be out there more. So I would say 77 probably is where I'd be. I think that's, he's kind of like a, we talked about how JD McKissick with no internal gives him to be like Deandre Swift. He's kind of like a more juiced up, better offensive version of Deandre Swift is what I would say. So. The salary is 7,300. Perfect. So we were a little bit higher than that, which is probably pretty telling because I've been lower on him just because the rate at which he had been scoring he really driven up that salary to the point where it wasn't right. And I have issues with the Falcons offense, but they're projecting to be one of the better offenses for next week's main slate, so. How did Calvin really have like 87 targets or 10 and like do nothing with it? 26 yards or something? Yeah, on 10 targets. Crazy. What's going on here? It's cause Kyle Pitts is too good. It's because Kyle Pitts, who I loved this week, just so everyone remembers the one thing I got. Yeah. I mean, it's hard because this offense is not flawless. That game will be in a dome. Carolina's defense, not quite what it was to start the season, but still not a defense that's like a super positive matchup. So I would say 7,300 has me intrigued for Patterson, but looking at the teams on the main slate, I feel like we're going to have a lot of running backs to pick from. So I don't know how much Patterson will actually get through. That's fair enough. Okay, so Vyda won here. Malcolm Brown ruled out with a quad injury. Miles Gaskin at 15 carries and four targets played 63% of the snaps. Gaskin now has three games, at least a 60% snap rate, five games, at least half the snaps. He's like the lead back, but like, it's really hard to trust him. It's really hard to trust the usage. The face of the bills next week has 13 and a half point dogs. I feel like even if you take Brown out of there, like I'm going to have a really hard time getting to Gaskin. What about you? Yeah. The reason that I draw to this down, because obviously it's an injury and it's a running back who might step into a 60 plus percent snap rate. I would expect him possibly even to get to 70%, especially if they're playing from behind. We've seen him get a lot of targets in that Buccaneers game specifically. For me though, we're going to want access to the bill's offense. And so I wouldn't be against Gaskin assuming his salary will be pretty low, just to sort of some bringbacks for some negative game script. It's similar to D'Andre Swift whenever I want to stack the team playing the Lions. So name a salary that you'd feel comfortable with within this particular game, expecting them to trail from Gaskin. For 57. It's kind of where I would expect him to be. Yeah. He's 57. But even there I'm not like, I don't know, like what's his path to 20 points? I know he got in the Bucs game, but like realistically, what's his path to 20 points? Same sort of thing. Like five, six, maybe seven targets. I think looking for a bringback there, like I just go to get sticky and just like deal with that. Yeah, but I mean, for me it's more a question of is Gaskin assuming no brown? Is Gaskin enough for bringback potential? Not really for me. I would say he's in the conversation because I know the bills are gonna have high salaries. Yeah. Where would you rank him relative to Gaskin, Waddle, and soon Parker's back here too? Probably last pretty easily, but it's more of a, hey, if there's no brown is there enough here? And I would say, yeah, probably to help balance out the salaries for the bills. I think that's a fair view of it. Yeah. Okay. Let's move to the role changes here to get some more cheery subjects. Elijah Mitchell was the feature back in the 49ers offense right away. He played 66% of the snaps. He had 18 carries for 170 yards in the touchdown. No targets, but did run 14 routes, which is about half the drop backs. So no passing game work for Mitchell in terms of targets, but like he was out there running routes. My concern is that he wasn't out there on third down. Michael Hasty, I think might've played every third down in that game potentially. We can check that later on, that's my one concern here. What's your view of Elijah Mitchell right now on this team? Yeah, I mean, we got to have some context with that game because it was just a downpour in terms of the receiving stuff, but we know that his receiving work is low. I think he's got zero, two, two and zero targets now through his healthy games. I think it's a signal that I find the two to be encouraging. Like that's like, oh, okay. That's better than I thought. It's like Derek Henry. It's like, hey, you got two targets, like multiple targets back in the day, back on the way back before Derek Henry was an elite pass catcher. He's still on the lead pass catcher, he just won't work now. I just like, I'm not a head coach. I am undefeated in my football career, six and zero, but so I feel like I have something worth saying, but I've just never understood why they don't try to throw Derek Henry more screens. It's because he can't catch. He can't catch. So he's never caught a pass in the NFL. He's very bad at catching passes when he's wide open. Yeah, I mean, sometimes he's very awkward in space. Yeah, sometimes he falls over. I'm not saying you're wrong. I'm just saying that's why. Yeah, I just, you know, I figure. Very weird to watch. Like I get strange. Like it's kind of like a kid going through puberty where they're like kind of don't know what their body's like. I think that's what he does in the passing game. Again, I'm not saying they shouldn't do it. I'm just saying that's why they don't. Yeah, I was trying to look up hasty. Yeah, looks like 11 third down snaps for hasty. How many for Mitchell out of 11? Okay, so yeah, none. So none for Mitchell. So that's rough. Yeah, it is rough. But I think that so the way I'd view Mitchell is the same way we viewed like most of the times last year before Wilson came back and before they were splitting things up, I would say he is someone who, like if you're not going to get passing game work, you need 122 to pay off or, you know, I guess now you need 80 and two or 120 and one touchdown to pay off. But like in this offense, I think he can get there. So to me, I would say he's still playable despite the fact that I'm going to assume there's not going to be a lot of passing game work. So to me, if we're going to name that salary on Mitchell they're playing the Bears, right? Yeah, Bears, they are four point road favorites. Total is 43 and a half. I have that spread larger. So I think they should be so, I think they, that's wrong, right? I'm going to check my numbers on that later. I know what you're talking about. I have been favored by eight. So that's weird. That's on the team, right? No, I know what the actual spread is but I think they should be favored by eight. Anyway, I'm going to go with $6,600 for Elijah Mitchell. I think that'd be too high for me. Because, yes, we would assume that they play from ahead but if they don't and you're giving me, you're basically capping his snaps at roughly two thirds we'll call it because he doesn't play on third downs apparently. So I would need it to be like 6,200, I think. He is $5,800. Do you prefer Mitchell or Gainwell if we assume Sanders misses? Different routes in the same kind of production. Yeah, very different. Probably Mitchell, but... Did I say Miles Sanders? Am I kind of Gainwell? I think I... No, you said Gainwell with Sanders. Oh, okay. All right. Probably Mitchell, just... I trust the offense more and I trust that he's going to get like the goal line work more. So I feel like I'll go Mitchell. They're both flawed, but like they're not out of play, I would say. Like they're both worth considering because the salary's low enough. Yeah, and I know I'm higher on Gaskin than you but we're already to three potential value backs on the main slate. You put Gaskin below those two? In that game. So I'd say in a vacuum, like for one offs I would say, yes, he'd be third but I'm probably more likely to play Miles Gaskin because I'm going to play the bills a lot. Gross. Kyle Pitts went bananas against the Dolphins, eight targets, seven catches, 163 yards. What? He lined up in the slot for 15 of his 31 routes. He was out wide for 14 of them. He was lined up as a traditional tight end on just two of those routes. He had lined up tight on 29% of his routes or his plays prior to this game. So they were willing to move him outside despite the fact that Calvin really was back this week. So with the London game, we were like, okay, you know the bump in targets may have been because Calvin really was out but Calvin really was active here and they still peppered Kyle Pitts. So name that starter for Kyle Pitts against Carolina next week. I would probably put him, so he was 6,100 this week. With that encouraging workload, the four downfield targets he's probably got a seven in front of his name but so I'll say seven flat. That's what I was going to say too. On the button with seven flat. And for next week, he is $6,800, very appropriate. He's the highest salary tight end. There's no Kelsey. There is no Andrews next week. There's no Waller if he would have played. He's a high salary guy who was basically Darren Waller. Yeah. But he deserves to be the highest salary guy and I feel really good about him being there. That's my view of his role is like, he is where he should be. Yeah. And I mean, he had a slow start to the season but he's also pacing toward, I mean he's got 19.8 and 22.4 fandal points in his past two games. He had a slow start but he cleared 30 yards in his first four games each with no touchdowns. Like that's a slow start for like, let's say maybe, I don't know, maybe like a Mark Andrews. Sure. But he's a rookie tight end. Yeah. Like that's like a great slow start for a rookie tight end and now they're playing him as a receiver. He's cleared 119 yards in his past two games. So he's a tight end now who has yardage upside. And you know how many other tight ends have yardage upside? One, like Kelsey, Kelsey can get through a hunt. Sure. Andrew's got to 100 a couple of times recently. So two, I mean, Waller hasn't really shown that. So like the reason that tight end is so difficult from a DFS standpoint is, it's not just rolling the dice on a touchdown but for a lot of guys it is like a Hunter Henry we talked up. Yeah. Hunter Henry is not going to get you 120 yards. No chance. So you need this touchdown. Pitt's got you a buck 63 with Calvin Ridley active. Yeah. So Kyle Pitt's definitely worth that salary. Even though they're, it's still a tight end position it's still going to be volatile because the past catcher without those consistent like carries and guaranteed touches but tight ends with yardage upside are worth the investment because they can get you to 10 to 12 with yards and catches. Yeah. For like we saw two weeks ago. Yeah. That's pretty nice. He's awesome. I want to actively make sure I get there this week. I'm going to write that down actually. Use Kyle Pitt's. There we go. All right. I read my notes from last week and it was like, oh, Miles Sanders. I was like, ah, oops. He's awesome. No, no other takeaways there. Khalil Herbert had a huge role even with David Williams to be back. He had 18 carries and five targets on a 79% snap rate, 133 yards. He's played great. So two questions here. How are you viewing Herbert while David Montgomery is out? And does his play impact your view of Montgomery once Montgomery is back? I like Herbert with Montgomery out. He would be, let me see, who we talked about Gainwell, Gask and Mitchell. I would probably put him on par with Elijah Mitchell or Eli Mitchell at the top of those value backs. You're making a face. I put him above I think. Well, I was saying kind of equal footing. I think he's like a half step above for me though. Half step. I would say role wise, yes, adjusted for offense. That's what probably puts me more about equal. So I think sounds like we're about on the same page from that perspective, but yeah, I really like his role and I like him as a player. He looks like a very capable running back. And I don't do a whole lot of like film analysis, but when I see like a player who looks athletic compared to elite NFL athletes, like I put some value in that. So if the offense were clicking a little bit better, I would definitely have him as the clear one of the value backs we talked about so far. But I also feel like I've seen enough where David Montgomery's gonna be difficult to play as soon as he returns. I think the good thing is we'll probably want a week of leeway with Montgomery anyway in terms of the injury, because it's a multi-week thing. So like we can be like, okay, we'll just hold off on everyone once he's back and see how the role develops. That's kind of the good thing here. Name that salary on Herbert, facing off with San Francisco this week. They're at home, four point underdogs. Should be, what do you say, eight? I don't know about that. Like that doesn't include anything from this week. So it'll probably go down because they're bad in the rain, but. I would say the thing that doesn't make this higher is just the offensive expectation. They're implied team total is below 20 points. I would probably say about 64. Okay. I would actually be closer to like 68, I think, just because of everything. He's 65 though. Like that's a right around where you were that's below where I was. If you give me hint at 65 versus Mitchell at 57 and Gainwell down there, I feel like, I don't know, it's tough. It would be, we have to sort those out, I think. We just take a while to sort those out of me. It's a full trend by itself on Thursday. Yes, but we're kind of racking up some value backs now. Yeah. And it looks like a pretty loaded running backs slate. Okay. Just with the amount of teams that we have. So I don't know how viable these players will be unless we realize there's maybe there's no, no receiver value or Kyle Pitts is like the play at tight end and we need to kind of save some salary. So yeah. Yeah. I think there's noji back. We get Echler back. Henry's there. Chubb's hopeful to return. Yeah. I think they'll probably still live in it with the artist Johnson playing well though. Camara. Camara. Daryl Henderson against the Texans. Sunday afternoon, Lenny. Jonathan Taylor against the Titans. Derek Henry against the Hulks. Okay. Wow. So yeah. Running backs actually good for once. That's good. Yeah. So it'll be a week where the guys that just don't click on are the ones that scored 25, but yeah. So talking about the Patriots backs here quickly, Brandon Bolden was the guy who got the James White roll back. Ramondra Stevenson ran more routes last week, but then also needs an active. Went back to Brandon Bolden. Damian Harris scored twice, had 160 yards and 14 carries. Are you bumping the way you view Harris at all here, or is this kind of just always in the range of outcomes? I think this was like, this is when I was looking back on and been like, probably should have expected some efficiency from this team and some touchdown equity for Harris, but that's about it. I'm not really kicking myself that much with this team, just sharing running back snaps to the point that they do. I feel like he's gonna get talked up next week to facing the Chargers who are actively and choose to be bad against the Rush. I think that's a mistake because the odds of Chargers get a big lead there are pretty high, so. Name a salary you'd feel comfortable with? 64. And name a salary you think Harris will be? 68. So he's 69. I would say that feels where he probably should be. That's really not a salary that I would be actively targeting him though. He's a lodge of Mitchell if I expected that team to lose. That's kind of like what he is. Well, you got three targets in week one, but no more than two in any other game. Yeah, so I don't know. I'll keep you lower on him if it burns me, it burns me. Rashad Bateman had a good role once again for the Ravens. He ran 29 of 47 routes and had six targets. One of those is downfield with a 12.1 yard eight odds. He's got 22% target share on passes from Lamar the past two weeks. Why are we discounting Tyler Huntley? Why are you tossing Tyler Huntley out of the distribution? Well, I just wanted to make it known. Tyler Huntley's great. My note there was confusing, so I jumped in. Okay, 22% target share on the throws from Lamar Jackson across. Specifically from Lamar, yeah. Only one of 14 targets has been downfield, but like you said, 12.1 yard eight odd. The numbers last week slanted by the fact they're facing a team that runs that defense that doesn't want you to beat him deep. So I'm still okay being high on Bateman, but I think he is a clear three behind Marquis Brown, Mark Andrews, Rashad Bateman. How are you viewing that pecking order right now? Yeah, it's gotta be that. Marquis Brown had eight downfield targets, 321 air yards, which is the second most in a single game since Mike Evans had 329 in week two of 2016. You can say whatever you want about air yards, even if it passes in catchable, it tells you that a team wants to throw the ball to some might not feel. Also Lamar's been awesome as a passer, so like air yards count there. And Marquis Brown, I don't know. I lose context of like cumulative fantasy points and like I don't know where Marquis Brown is on like the season long rankings, but he could be a lot higher too if he caught some of this touchdowns against Detroit. So like- And like you can say, okay, he keeps dropping passes, he won't get those chances, but he keeps burning people. He's always open behind the defense. How does this happen? Also how, like what were they doing in years past where like it's like he got faster all of a sudden and more open, I feel like- Yeah, I mean like they didn't throw downfield as much. Like that was apparently a major offseason concentration for Lamar was being able to throw outside the numbers and like we're seeing it. I know yesterday did not go well for their offense. I am still very high on them. I don't care. Like I'm very okay being high on them. Don't care. They're not the main slate next week, but because they're on a buy, but I'll be on all of those guys. I think just this is still an offense I want to believe in. Zach Ertz made his debut with the Cardinals, really torpedoed any Rondale more progress, which is kind of what we had expected, I think. Zach Ertz ran a route on 19 of 32 drop-backs. He actually got yak, really weird, like disorienting to see. Rondale more had 14 routes run in the 32 drop-backs. Ertz had five targets that was tied with Christian Kirk for second of the team. DeAndre Hopkins is up to 26% of the targets in four games since he had that rib injury. So I think that, I know we're talking to Ertz here, but how are you viewing them with Ertz in the fold and like, I'm getting higher and higher on DeAndre Hopkins, am I stupid? No, 32% of the targets in this game, he's kind of forged out ahead as expected, which is something that we were tracking, but we were both expecting him to take the lead more comfortably in terms of like long-term target share, which he's been doing. The problem for me, and I don't know if I'm mistaken here, it feels like the yardage upside for Hopkins is a lot lower than it used to be, but his salary isn't really reflected with that. I pinned him as like one of the most obvious positive touchdown regression candidates for this season. You didn't think it'd be all touchdowns though? I didn't think it'd be all touchdowns, and I thought there would be more guaranteed volume, which he's getting to. Pretty sure he was banged up for a bit. Yes, if you look at the four games since Thrib Injury, he has three, four, one-and-one deep targets in those games, that's fine, but it's not like you're right, in making the yardage upside point, that's a fair point to make there. So it's hard to view him, and they're what, Thursday night? Yeah, they play Green Bay, I wish that game around the main slate, he's sick. I'll get a fun one to talk about on Thursday while people ask me start-sick questions for the weekend. Yeah, I think for me, it's really Hopkins as the clear one, but with Erts in the fold, I mean, he'll be viable with the 60%, this is his first game with the team, 60% of the routes, 50% of the snaps, that's encouraging for a tight end learning and new offense like within a week. Downfield target, red zone target. You get an end around rushing attempt inside the 10, which is very stupid, but hey, it's a thing they did. Time for the team- I think Zach Erts, I think Burners, man. I saw a quote from him, I think it was, he's never seen this much like Green in the middle of the field before. Which, I don't know, he played with the Eagles, there's a lot of Green with that team, but. Grass is Green, Zach, let's switch to Boise, which he didn't. So yeah, Hopkins clear one, and then, I don't want to sound stupid here, but it might be Erts too, just because he's a tight end. Depends on the salary, I might go Kirk too. It's between the two, yeah, but. Yeah, I don't know. It's a tough one, for sure. I think the good thing is, when we get Kyler in stackable gains, I can just go harder at Hopkins and feel fine about it. I know the yardage upside is a concern, but if it's a competitive game, the yardage upside increases because the passing volume increases. So I think that's one thing to consider there. With New Antonio Brown, Mike Evans went absolutely bananas. He had three touchdowns, Chris Godwin had one. He led with 11 targets. He also had two deep targets, Evans won, and Tom Brady threw 15 times inside the red zone, which is something the Bears have done 17 times all year. So they face the Saints next week. That's gonna be one of the better games to stack. We know the Marchant ladder where Mike Evans thing, but just in general, how would you view Evans and Godwin if Brown were to miss more time? Evans and Godwin, okay, like way up. It was ridiculous to see after Mike Evans, I think it was scored possibly all three times. They were throwing him like screens on the one yard line. Which feels like a move I would have done NCAA football 06 when I was trying to win the Heisman with my quarterback or maybe if I made myself a tight end, just be like, run out of bounds to the one. Tom Brady, Heisman contender. And then throw those touchdowns. But yeah, that was crazy to see. We know this team wants to throw the ball as much as possible. That is very encouraging, especially for a player as good as Evans, as good as Godwin. These guys can get downfield work. More specifically, Evans obviously, although, ironically, what's that? Godwin got two this week. Yeah, I was gonna say, ironically, I have Evans with one. But we know that the high-leverage workload is there for both of them. So rest up, AB, let's actually stack the bucks with some confidence for once. And we can stack them even if he's back, but we can't stack them with confidence. Now it's the key word you use there. So salaries for next week. I'm trying to not to look at other ones. Evans is $7,500. Godwin's still $72. Like, I think even if Antonio Brown's back, that's totally fine in that game for Godwin. Brady's $83, that'll be a dome game. Yeah. Antonio Brown's $73. Shane is revenge game. Yeah, that's true. They'll be on a short week. So it's gonna be, it's something like this that I pinpoint on Monday. It's like short week for the Saints. Yeah. In a dome, just maybe be high on Tom Brady. But although, I mean... There are gonna be a lot of games to stack on that slate, so. Also, I mean, four touchdowns, but not even 25 fandal points is kind of the reason that we don't, we're not usually high on like passing only players, but... Yeah, 2-0 was the quarterback in the perfect lineup. Tight game quarterback. Maybe there's a reason we do this stuff. Who knows? Not that I was on 2-0, but. Right. Like the overall process. Yeah, the process of the process of the process. Yeah, and it feels like, I don't know, like I'm not taking responsibility, but I look back at the stuff that I was on and I at least know that like I can justify what I was thinking and that helps me. What's... What time is this game? It's Sunday afternoon Lenny once again next week. He is 72. I think that is still a really, really good number. Like he, we don't talk about running backs getting burned by a positive script, but he got burned by the script being too positive. Yeah, although do you have any concerns about like touchdown equity from him? I know we saw him score on the ground early on, but. Okay, so because he's gotten some red zone targets, I believe, let me. Like I know it's weird to say because he's got four touchdowns over his past. If we look at the three games with Geo back, I'm cutting you off, I know. He had nine red zone opportunities this past week at a 25, that's 40% or 36%, that's good. Week before eight at 18, that's 44%, that's good. Four to 17, three before that. So like if you look at the games with, since Geo came back, he is at around 36%, that's okay for a running back. But the yardage has been good. Overall usage has been good. So I would say, do I have a concern? Yes. Is it enough to make me think that he is oversawed as any two? Absolutely not. I would agree. It's fair to bring up though, fair to bring up for sure. Okay, let's go to situations to monitor other stuff that caught your eye. What were you noticing in week seven? So Nick Chubb is quote hopeful to return in week eight, but if he doesn't, that would be very noteworthy when we get another potential value back with Jarnas Johnson. Who do they play next week? Cleveland. Cleveland. They are three point dogs to maybe Case Keenum. Maybe Case Keenum. Or sorry, no, it's Case Keenum was playing. Pittsburgh. He plays for Cleveland. Good job, Jim. They are three point favorites over Pittsburgh. Pittsburgh with all their injuries. I had that game as a pick them before I input Case Keenum if he starts. Either way, Johnson could be somewhat viable. 69% of the snaps, which is very nice. 22 carries, 146 yards in a touchdown. 15 routes and two targets. That's a really good role. So it'd be something to monitor although we're kind of realizing there are a ton of running backs. So I'm looking forward to the salary scroll to see what jumps out most. Jarvis Landry in his return. I mean, I just don't like this offense enough to even get in. And Jarvis got her too. Yeah. So that's kind of why I was surprised. Not that I'm big on the Steelers, but... One thing I would say is that I think even if Jarvis himself is not viable, he lifts the floor of the offense by being there if he's healthy. Because when you watch the Browns, it seems like they're missing an outlet-type guy and Jarvis can be that guy. I have not liked this. I've been down on them in general from an offensive perspective. But I think getting Jarvis back does help from an overall expectation perspective. It might torpedo the target shares, but I think it helps. It raises the overall efficiency of the offense. But does that matter then? It might not. Envision... Might be a betting perspective and not for GFS. Let's say even Nick Chubb is out, so we have a potential value spot with Jarvis Johnson. Do you envision using a single Cleveland Brown next week on a 12-game main slate against the Steelers? Probably not. Yeah. I mean, it's just we're trying to find context. Look forward to it. Oh, he's a nice Jarvis. Yeah, that count. See you, Brown. Stop confusing the teams. He's not. Oh, unfortunate. Okay, what else you got here? Fortunate vindication for me. Aaron Jones not paying off at an $8,500 salary. Six carries, five targets, so 16 adjusted opportunities on 38 snaps, which is 72%. So he's kind of been around 60-40 split over AG Dillon. Was higher than that with the snap rate, but the roll wasn't there and Green Bay threw a ton. So kind of fortunate vindication, I think, because that could have been worse. I would say, though, that snap rate is good and he was not on the injury report at all last week, the first time since week three or something like that. So I would say, despite the bad usage, my arrow is up on him. It is not up enough to be to justify 85. That's still way too high, but it's improvement from where it was is what I'd say. So I know they're not in the main slate, but tell me a salary. 77. He was 75 from me last week. He's 77 now, I think. I could see that. Like a small increase, but not substantially so. Yep. Jamar Chase obviously dominated and sold the headlines, but T. Higgins has a really good roll. He had 15 targets for downfield, just 62 yards, but in his healthy games, Higgins has a 27% target share with Chase at 24% and Tyler Boyd at 18% in those games. But he's not doing much with it. It's so like, he's not Robbie Anderson bad, but like, he's not doing a whole lot. I like T. Higgins, but like it's weird. And also like, if you told me his target share would stick, you know, I expect some regression on 27%, but like, they probably want to throw that Jamar Chase guy the ball more. So like, I think if we're asking, okay, what's more likely here? Will T. Higgins start to produce on the volume and keep getting the same volume? Or will his volume come down and Chase's go up? I think that the latter is more likely. What likelihood do you think it is that T. Higgins, even when his target share, most likely almost assuredly comes down that it will be like below 20% and like- Above 20%. But like I'm saying, yeah, short gives Jamar Chase the 27 and give Higgins the 24%. The salary discrepancy is always big. And I know the efficiency difference is like a cavern, but we're getting someone who just got 15 targets and we're trying to like nitpick it a bit. And, you know, we've seen some guys get heavy targets and not do a whole lot, but T. Higgins I think is better than what he's been producing. Better than Robbie Anderson. Yeah, so like, I'm going to keep an eye on this one. I will say that his efficiency is going to go up next week. They're facing the Jets. So that game stinks, but he'll, you know, he'll do somebody's target this time. What salary would you have interest in? Because I'll say, Mark Chase is, his salary is 8,200. Fair. It is. Higgins is 63. A little high. Little high, but in a game where it may be a little bit more competitive, I would start to have, I'm starting to have some more intrigue with T. Higgins with the workload that he's actually had. Other things I noted, Marquis Brown eight downfield targets, 321 area yards, which already gave out my stat. Pretty good. Dallas Goddard, Kyle Pitts, both four downfield targets. Dallas Goddard had never had more than two in a game before that. So. This entire career. Pretty big role. And then with no Darren Waller, Foster Moreau played every snap for the Raiders, ran 28 routes, six targets, two in the red zone. So basically was just Darren Waller. Except he got 60 yards. Sorry, I was going to use Darren Wall yesterday. I'm very unfortunate, but well, it wouldn't matter. It's out of stack of miles Sanders, but yeah, I used more on the 4 p.m. slate, but oops. Oh, well, they're on buy. So waller probably back, but if it lingers, I think more has some viability. Yeah. Oh, well, it was a good, good wall lasted. My one note here is that we're getting a better read on the Titans pass catchers when they're fully healthy. We got three full games now with them. AJ Brown, 26 pen of the overall targets, 54% deep. Julio is at 18% and 23%. So I think what we're seeing is there is a clear separation between these two guys where Julio is in play because he's getting usage. But AJ Brown is like the, I hate the word alpha. It's using so many stupid contexts. It's just the dumbest word of all time, but he is the alpha receiver on this team. If I'm going to use that word that I hate, I think a proper sour for AJ Brown, nine-ish targets, eight to nine targets, probably two or three downfield, but like massive levels of efficiency. I would say he's like a $7,700 receiver. What do you think? Yeah, I would say that's about right. He's 76. They're playing the Colts next week. So that would be dome game. One of the higher, one of the higher totals so far. You said before the show. I'm going to guess 51 and a half because 51 is a key number and they're going to want to sucker us. Wait, it's up, it's up. 48, bet the over. Wait, it's it. It's a 48. Oh, bet it up. Wait. Get it now. Go. But I had it open at 49 and a half. It's at 48 right now. Go bet it. I'll handle the, I'll handle the opening of philosophy changes. You go bet this. Let's move now to philosophy changes. Green Bay had a 73% early down first half pass rate. That is over 16 plays that they were 54% the four prior weeks. So they were about league average. And then suddenly they were not. So they're throwing more often. Like that's kind of interesting because previously it's been just Devante Adams who I've been willing to like use. I had Devante Adams in every single Aaron Rodgers line of this week, which is not a lot, to be fully honest. But like Lazard got six targets. I think they might have all come on one drive. Aaron Jones at five, Big Shot Bob Tony at five, and finally got more than 10 yards, which is good. Randall Cobbett four. So usages were spread out, but they're throwing more. I feel like that's kind of encouraging. What about for you? It's encouraging. Maybe noteworthy is a better word thing. Noteworthy, yeah. I mean, they're not on the main slate. So we'll have to overreact to this on the single game slate and try to pinpoint like Lazard. But even I feel like if they were one of the, let's not even include them on the main slate and make it a 13 game slate, but remove like the worst game and put them on the slate. I don't know if it's enough where I would be considering like Lazard or Tony into a big degree. So I don't know if I'm quite there myself. Lazard is not a big yardage upside guy, which is tough on a full slate. Fine for a single game, but tough run a full slate. Tanya is disappointing still. Cincinnati and Atlanta also had early down first half pass rates over 70% week seven. That's up from around 60% for both those teams in the four games leading in. And I think the noteworthy one there is Cincinnati because we had talked a lot about the Bengals earlier on this year as being a team that was running a lot. That was, it seemed to safeguard Joe Burrow as our offensive line gel as he healed up from his knee injury. They're actually going back to what they were previously. And I feel like that's, that's a good thing for everyone involved, including Joe Nixon. And Nixon didn't have great usage yesterday, but like, I think that's a good thing for him too. If the offense would be more efficient because of throwing more. So yeah, that's plus. Geez, T Higgins, 172 area yards last week. Or I guess that's good. Because again, they weren't throwing the ball downfield to him before. They did a bit a couple of times on Sunday. Sounds good for downfield to red zone. Yeah, he had one deep the entire year. I think before that, I mean, missed some time too. Yeah, but still, Tennessee, they were, they had a good matchup against the Chiefs from a ground game perspective, but still did throw a bit more. They threw 54% of the time, but really down from the first half, it was 45% over the previous four games. I think this is probably a result of AJ Brown and Julio Jones being back. I think for me, Brandon, I think that this, this is going to be the game of the week from a stacking perspective for DFS, Colts Titans. Very easily could be. So we can talk about like Michael Pittman and what we saw from him last night. But I just wanted, kind of the reason I noted this was obviously it's up from a horrible pass rate to like closer to league average. Derek Henry looks a little bit slower to me. Not, it feels like it's taken a longer to stand back up. And that's why I don't like, that's why I don't watch, that's why I don't watch film. Oh, I got you. I think it was like, did you watch Monday night? Like, no, no. Okay, I got you. Like, he still got that, but it's already got out. He's got so many more touches than like anywhere else that. Okay, I'm just, I was wondering if they would be. He's gassed. Yeah, like if they're, hey, maybe we'll throw it 55% of the time. I think you're implying he's mortal and you should rethink that. So I just, that's honestly the reason I jotted that down is I'm not down on Derek Henry. I'm just like it's, because I haven't been a lot of season long leagues. So you're getting nervous. So I'm just, yeah. Okay, fair enough. I guess that. Eagles did actually commit to the run, which is something they had hinted at this week, despite Sandra getting banged up, they're only down first half pass rate was 41% this week. It had been in the 70s, the previous four weeks. I don't know if that benefits gain well, given the body type, but also Boston Scott's not really the kind of dude you want to run a whole bunch. So I don't know. I think that the bigger takeaway may be that their games are lower scoring and less stackable going forward. I think that's kind of my bigger takeaway. What about for you? Yeah, like lowers me on Jalen Hertz too. I'm still fine with him with the rushing, but. Sure. Like you want rushing quarterbacks who also, you feel like can throw the ball. And I know that we, everyone has concerns about Jalen Hertz and his passing efficiency, but there are reasons to be higher on his passing efficiency long-term with Lane Johnson back. But if they're going to just go away from throwing the ball, then it feels more like maybe like a Lamar Jackson. Early past, Lamar Jackson. And years past. Guess who's on their practice squad and guaranteed to be active and frustrating in week eight? Running back. I feel like I'll know it when you say it, but I don't know if I'll. You will. Jordan Howard. He is still there. The newest practice squad rules are disorienting, is what I will say. He's going to be there. He's going to get goal line work. It's going to be great. Okay. Let's move now to our salary scroll for week number seven. Let's start off at quarterback and just shout out to ZC Stuff that sent out to you. Okay. I'm actually looking forward to this because we, it's a bigger slate with two extra games from the past few weeks. I've got one that stands out to me. One thing that just went, it's $7,200. That's saying a lot coming from you. I know. The thing that jumped out to me first is that there are only four quarterbacks on a 12 game slate with a salary above 8,000. Yep. That's Josh Shalon at 88. Jaylen Hurts at 84. Tom Brady at 83. Matt Stafford at 82. Justin Herbert at 79. Not opposed. But Tana Hill 75 wins at 72. I feel like that's not bad. I know that they're not the most exciting names, although you do get the Tana Thrill nickname if you want it. But you know, you know, it's not bad. Yeah. Geez. Not looking like a super deep quarterback slate despite 12 games. Trevor Lawrence at 67 if you decide you want to get some action there. I'm not going to do that. But like he's playing well and they're facing a really bad defense. I don't know if that's the right process to take there, but like, you know, just point it out. Coming off a buy, which I feel like is can only be good for them. A buy and that win. Maybe they'll have some some win juice in them. Yeah. So overall, I think the Tennessee Indy quarterback you pointed out are probably under salaried or salaried fairly enough in that game to like. But Josh Allen's got a big spread. The salary is heavy at 88. I don't know who would be my... It's weird because none of our rushing quarterbacks outside of Hertz are here because there's no Mahomes. There's no Kyler. No Lamar. No Lamar. So those are the guys I've used all year. Almost exclusively. So first impressions of my QB1 for the week? Probably just Josh Allen even with the spread and the salary, but it might be Tom Brady number two. I think that's a fair ranking. No objections there. Let's move to running back. Derek Henry is 10-5. Naji's 9,000. I think that's appropriate. It seems high, but I think it's appropriate is the way I'd phrase it. Yeah. He's been... That workload's just... He hasn't scored more than 21.7 Fando points this year. It's like he kind of needs to get you two touchdowns, I think. Coming out of a buy, you'd think that there's no workload concerns either. And it feels like... Him or Ekler at 87? So Ekler's... And the Chargers are hosting the Patriots. I think I'd probably... That's tough. Just because Naji's never going to have the better game or offensive expectations, I'd probably lead Naji just for the unfaithable workload, basically. I'd probably go Ekler for the game, I think, would be the thing for me. Jonathan Taylor. Getting drop-ins over a salary of $800? That's good. So we're talking about this game a lot. Tennessee, Andy. Jonathan Taylor, 8,500. Uh-huh. Fair for you? He leads the league in red zone opportunities, like red zone share. 50%. Half of their plays in the red zone outside of Sacks had been Jonathan Taylor runs their targets. It's absurd. I think it's fair. I don't think he's under salary, but I think it's fair. Lombardi. I've been on DeAndre Swift all season. 79's probably a bit steep. It's a good game. Not a bad game, at least. Yeah. Darrell Henderson, 77. That's not bad. No, he played a lot of snaps again. Just didn't want to get a hold of him. His yardage upside is disappointing. That's fair. I feel like mixing against the Jets will be a popular play. Why is Alex Collins 7,000? Get out of here. Probably safety there. Yeah. So Deanna Shanson is 67. I think it'd be too high in that game to want to go there with all the other backs to pick from. Oh, boy. Chuba Hubbard, 66. I can't do it again. Nope. In turn, he gives some time to 60. I was going to make a PJ Walker joke. I'm not going to. Let's PJ Walker plays. Yeah. I think that it really is. It's Gainwell and Mitchell as being the guys who might be salary savers in order to get access to the other really good running backs. I think based on the running back landscape, I might be inclined to try to get to Tannehill and Wenz just because the salaries are so low and it can allow me to get to those really good running backs. Yeah. Okay. So we like Gainwell and Mitchell fine. And what was Clio Herbert? 65. 65, yeah. Definitely that salary a bit lower. Yeah. Yeah. Because like he's too close to Lenny at 72. Cordero. Nixon, Patterson. If we get Cordero without Mike Davis, I will have to play some. Yeah. So I'm hoping, well, we don't have Kelsey or like Waller or Andrews. And we know that Pitts is at the max at 68. So that helps. It's good. With the running backs trying to get there. There are only two wide receivers as I've moved there, sorry, who are above $8,000. It's Cooper Cup at 92 and Jamar Chase at 82. Everyone else is $7,800 or lower, led by Debo MF and Samuel at $7,800. He keeps paying off, man. 100 yards again last night in Monson. Yeah. My baby. AJ Brown at 76 is a little bit too low. A little bit maybe that Evan's at 75 is interesting. I love DJ more. Why is Stefan Diggs $7,300? Oh boy. Oh, all right. Write that down. Well, that's going to help with Josh Allen. I'll set Allen's salary. Yeah. Why is he 73? Why is Stefan Diggs lower salary than DK Mechav tied to Geno Smith? So you're Terry McLauren tied to Taylor Heinecky. So would you play Josh Allen at 81 and Stefan Diggs at 8,000? Because Apple. I would. Yeah. For sure. That's the same. All right. That helps. So my takeaway is stack the bills. You know what? I think you might be the only person who says that for this week. I know. No one else has ever thought of this ingenious take. Ingenious take. Other thing about them is they're kind of like the bucks, where when they're up big they don't really care. They just kind of keep, you know, just pounding away. So I think that's good for them. I do think that like Coral and Sutton's got a good role. So Coral and Sutton, Calvin Ridley right around 7,000. Just air yards like heroes, but like Diggs is 73. Yeah. So like, I don't know if it's going to matter too much. Right. Okay. Pittman 66. That's way too low. Manny is 67. Pittman should be like $800 more than Manny. Yeah. Julio is 65. I think it's a little high, but that's fine. Oh boy. The 6,000 range, I feel like again, I talked about this last week, I feel like it's just not. Why is cool Beasley within $1,200 of Stefan Diggs? What are we doing? Depending on usage this week, Marca's Callaway is $5,900. Brandon Cook's Revenge Game, which it typically is. Which one? Set the, or hosting the Rams. Nope. I mean, like Brandon Cook says like the best workload, but I just can't do it. Devontae Parker is 57. If he gets in full practice by Friday, I could be into that as a bring back on the Bill Stacks. It's fine. Odell is 57. Let's see how far we've come. Yes, talking, speaking about that, Alan Robinson even farther down to 56. So that Pascal gets volume, but has no yardage upside. Kind of in a way. So honestly, my initial read on this slate is the bills are obviously under salaried with Diggs and Allen, at least like Manny's over salaried. I guess Dawson Knox's hurts. I might probably have something to do with like Beatsley and Manny's salaries. But so like my initial takeaways through wide receiver, our bills are under salaried, but we want to have salary for running backs. However, not a whole lot of like $5,000 receivers are popping. So that's going to be a bit tricky. And that makes me assume that Kyle Pitts will be like, I don't know, like collateral damage or whatever, like where I'm just like, I can't get the Pitts because I don't have value at receiver to get there. And that's scary because Pitts is like a value receiver with that workload. So let's go to receiver, sorry, tight end. Dallas Goddard is 59 again. That's not bad with the four deep targets this past week. Noah Phantis 58. Jerry Judy should be back this week. What's Judy's salary? Judy. Ooh, it's $6,000. Dang it. I thought I saw the zeros. I thought it was five. Ricky Silas Jones, 54. Played every snap again, I think. CJ Azoma, aka Travis Kelsey in Kelsey's old hometown is $5,700. Tyler Higby is just going to keep on beating. I knew, I knew. He's so hot at 53. But like it's not been bad. He had three more red zone targets. He had a season high eight targets this week. Five receptions. You know, I'm just going to keep on doing it. I'm just going to keep on using Tyler Higby. What can go wrong? Your boy Pat Fryermuth is $4,900. Love him. Dan Arnold. What did Cole? He kind of looks like Dan Campbell in this picture. Dan Arnold does. Cole Comet. 69% route rate. Six targets. How many? 4.68 up. I don't think I can get back there. Tommy Tremble had a good snap rate in the first half for Carolina. Didn't do a whole lot in the second half. His snap rate finished around 53%, I think. Red run where it was previously. So I'm probably not going to get there yet at 46, but keeping on him still. So I feel like it's just Higby. I'm going to go Higby. Her pits. Gisicki is a run back, but. I mean, Seales Jones still 54. Yeah. And then Logan Thomas is one more week on IR, but he's playing Denver. Like the team upside in that game is really bad. Yeah. Okay. Anything else sticking out to you? It's just that. So like again, I was hoping to get some value spots at tight end, but I feel like I need to prioritize cow pits. I should probably save this for my. Okay. Note to future me. What is your note to future Brandon? Find ways to prioritize Kyle pits. Okay. Mine is used to fondix. Yeah. There's that, but like am I right where it feels like what helps is there's not a whole lot of quarterbacks to allocate salary to anyway, but there's not a ton of screaming value at receiver or tight end. There is value at running back, but there's also studs at running back. Right. Yeah. Trying to find a defense. I can put in here as a filler. They're all bad. Oh boy. Oh gosh. Dolphin. I don't do it. No, not at that level. It's Monday. Okay. Chargers. Sorry, Mac. So if I do Josh Allen digs and Higby, 6940 left, that is going to make it tough at receiver, honestly. So I think we are going to have to have at least one value back. Yeah. I think we're going to have to spend down there based on the early look. Yeah. And I mean, we always roster three running backs on Fandall. So this is definitely a week where we have another one. I was thinking about that in the shower today. I was like, should I stop doing that? So basically it's the right call. Previously. Yes. I think this week it will be because there's so many running backs, but I think I may even be more flexible on smaller slates. I've been tallying up for preparation for one of our, probably our favorite podcast of the year. At Thanksgiving show, I've been tallying up some optimals on smaller slates. And the split it flex on smaller slates like four games, about two to four games, it's about even between running back, receiver, and tight end actually on, but that's, you know, optimal lineup. So it's just takes the outlier performances. But I still think on a full, on a full slate, running back is still the right call mostly. I would feel differently if there were like 10, no, 10s, kind of aggressive, but like five or six value receivers that I felt good with and no value running backs, but we have some value backs. So it's probably going to be a week where we get one of the, at least like Herbert in below, but I probably won't have too much Herbert and just take the like sub six K guys. Yeah. My note is just use the bills used to find dig specifically, but get to Josh Allen too. But digs is going to go absolutely bananas. I think this week focus on the backs, the value backs side, which one we can trust the most because I think we'll need them and use cow pits. I think that is the correct takeaway here. Digs is just going to be the mega chalk though. Don't care. It's one of those things I don't care about right now, but by Sunday, I'll be like, you know what? I'm smarter. I'm smarter than this. And then tragedy is struck. Not in real life. Don't get me wrong. Sorry, I just preface it. Tragedy has struck though. Cordero Patterson is no longer wide receiver eligible. Why? Why have they? Why have they? Why have our people forsaken us? He specifically said, don't don't label them. They have done it. You should have been tight end eligible. What's going on here? Gosh, put him that quarterback. You know, what could go wrong? So honestly though, initial looks at the games makes the slate look kind of gross and uninviting, but I feel like between balancing the value at running back and trying to make sure that we're not. Gosh, I just going to build my lineups. It's with all these running backs, it's going to want to default to two value receivers. And they're just they don't seem to be enough of those. So it's going to be a mid range running back week again. Like it might hurt not to get to a lot of, you know, Najee stuff like that, Eckler, but like checking out Patterson, checking out for now, checking out those guys, in addition to like the value running backs, I think that might be the way we play things this week. Yeah, realistically, first glance, I'll be lower on Najee Eckler, even Jonathan Taylor, just salary wise, like with what I can justify. So yeah, I think we are set for week eight. Let's just fill out lineups right now. I feel good about those. Honestly, I would, I would probably build better lineups on Monday morning. Yeah, I should do that. We're going to do that now. That is all that we have here for today. We are going to do our full week eight preview on Thursday. That's on the Fandal YouTube page at 10 a.m. live recording there. And then it'll be up on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy Podcast feed after that. And exciting times here on the Number Fire Daily Fantasy podcast because Daily NHL and NBA podcasts are back once again via Tom Vecchia. We have PGA tomorrow for what's seen. Is it the CUDA this week? It is the Butterfield Bermuda championship. I saw the UDA at the end. And I just glossed around. I was like, it's the CUDA. I thought they moved in to be a standalone. That's upsetting. Anyway, we'll talk about that tomorrow. NASCAR Friday, UFC later on this week. A lot of good stuff. So make sure you are subscribed to the Number Fire Daily Fantasy Podcast wherever you get your podcasts. Brandon, if people have questions for you on Twitter, where can they find you there? I'm at Godula 13, G-D-U-L-A-1-3. And I am at Jim Sonnis, J-I-M-S-A-N-N-E-S. You can also follow the Fandal Podcast Network at Fandal Podcast. Big thank you to everyone for tuning in for today. Good luck to you with your Monday night slates. Good luck with your NBA NHL lineups. And so we talk to you Thursday. We'll see you then to preview week number eight. This has been a heat check fantasy podcast powered by Number Fire.