 Good Wednesday morning everybody. I'm Tommy O'Brien comedy alive from TFN and just after 9 a.m. Eastern time We got about 24 minutes to go until the opening bell But boy we got some trading going on this morning a CPI print folks You probably know the number nine point one percent the headline inflation number on a month-over-month basis folks now These numbers are for June. It's already July 13th You could make the case that things were really peaking in June especially when you take into consideration Energy prices gasoline prices at the time were over five dollars. I think right now. Just watch on Bloomberg There's something like 460 national average down almost 10% from that number. Keep it in mind about month-over-month basis 1.3% folks if you annualize the month-over-month basis and listen you can't annualize the number because energy prices contributing a large factor Almost impossible always use the term almost folks anything can happen almost impossible for energy prices to keep going at the rate They are but if you extrapolate out the number on a month-over-month basis of 1.3 percent You're dealing with what 15.6 percent multiply 1.3 times 12 man 15.6 percent inflation if you add the month-over-month over 12 years No matter what happens you're above the expectations the headline inflation number was supposed to be 8.8 You come in at 9.1 Month-over-month the headline number was supposed to be 1.1 percent I believe you come in at 1.3 quite a market sell-off. How's a hundred and 25 S&P points? I think that's what it was a hundred and 21 to be exact 121 you just had a 3% drop in the S&P. I don't know what happened You know you got a little bit of an acceleration at 815 right this market Somebody was getting ahead of it in the wrong direction you trade from 38 36 up to above 38 70 and Boom just like that the market sells off as I said about a 3% drop now right now. You have the S&P's They are positive by about 1.3 percent right now as positive negative 1.3 percent We're up almost 25 points off of the low that you had at 845 you get the Nasdaq 100 off 1.8 percent You talk about a drop man. You go from almost 12,000 We were 30 points shy of that level coming into the number day 30 you trade down almost 500 points folks I think that's more than 4 percent in the Nasdaq 100 right Dow off about 297 right now 30,672 you see the drop there about 800 points. We got action everywhere man bitcoin Very correlated to this market folks. I've pulled it up before bitcoin very correlated to the Nasdaq 100 is the best index In terms of correlation. Yeah, it deviates at times, but you see the drop off man pretty remarkable right that bitcoin trading Dramatically on a cpi print wasn't always the case, but it has become an asset class, especially bitcoin Bitcoin you see the drop drops more than a thousand we're at about 19,145 right now crude contract dropping and then popping Uh, I saw a tweet out there by joel wisenthal from bloomberg saying crude trades lower on report of higher crude prices And it's kind of true this report a lot of energy prices, right? We'll break it down a little bit We got a couple great guests folks We're talking our man kevin hanks after the first break as we do every tuesday wednesday and thursday And then we're talking our man teddy kegstad at 40 past the hour. We'll be talking some forex Absolutely great day to have a conversation with teddy. We'll talk some forex. We'll talk some euro dollar parity I'm sure we'll talk some yen and I'm sure we'll talk some crude oil as well Don't forget to check out teddy's tiger forex report on the front page of tf&n folks We'll talk to him at 40 past the hour. All right, let's jump into the number headline inflation 9.1 from a year earlier in a broad based advance Largest gain since the end of 1981. I mean check out this chart Relentless, it's a great word to surmise what's going on folks Do you see any turn in that number folks? You got to see some turn in that number Okay, until we see a real turn in that headline number and hopefully this is the peak Okay, now the core peak was in March, I believe or may right may I believe the core peak was in may at 6.5 something We'll get into the core number, but that was a little bit hot as well So you could make the case that the core has peaked But energy prices matter folks they matter in a big way now this number we're getting some old data here All right, it's already july 13th This data is for june and it takes in the the an average of the month I think it's the middle of the month somehow or an average or some capacity to that degree We've come down from those levels on energy you that is undeniable right now. I'm not sure it will hold Okay, but you're talking about change month over month Folks, we're still heating up We are still heating up on a month over month basis on the change in cpi That one's the most stunning of all folks, okay Because take this into consideration The 11 months prior the market is aware of what happened to the cpi Really all we're asking for right now as in the report that we get this morning is tell me what happened last month So yes, you take the month over month number you add that to the 11 months You already know that gives you the year over year number month over month. That's a huge beat. Okay 1.3 percent The expectation was for a number of 1.1 percent. I believe let's jump over here because they have all the numbers exactly Uh headline cpi at 1.3 the number they were looking for was 1.1 on a core basis Okay, you take out food and energy And on a month over month basis from may till june cpi was up 0.7 percent folks annualized that's 8.4 percent core 8.4 percent core from may to june That's not a slowdown. Okay, they were looking for 0.5 percent on the core number and 1.1 percent on the headline now energy prices surged 7.5 percent in the month of june up 41.6 percent on a 12 month basis the food index increased 1 percent shelter costs again. This is june The real estate market you could make a case is really rolling over the last four weeks six weeks Maybe the last couple months, but this is still june data. Okay, so you're potentially going back about six weeks at the beginning of june Uh shelter costs which make up about one third of the cpi So if we get a pullback in Real estate, okay if we get a pullback in rents that could have a huge impact of the cpi When you look at the number that it has there in terms of one third Of the cpi rose 0.6 percent for the month up 5.6 percent annually It's the sixth straight month again reminding you this is june We're talking about that food in home rose at least one percent rental costs 0.8 Was that the rise in june the largest monthly increase since april 1986 it's going to be an interesting one to see how rent goes okay, because It's very difficult to buy a house right now with interest rates on the rise right and With elevated levels that should hurt demand for houses potentially bringing down The cost of purchasing a home Does that translate to rent it should okay because people investing in properties that are buying those properties as investments Need to make that money back for rent so at some capacity it's going to be correlated right But very difficult to buy a house right now those people are going to be forced into the rental market. Well, guess what? Nonetheless, it's going to be an interesting one rent cost remarkable that that was still rising almost a full percent in june And yeah, check out we'll finish it up with this much of the inflation rise came from gasoline prices Which increased 11.2 on the month and just shy of 60 percent for a 12 month period We are down from those levels. Okay, right now it's july 13th We're down from those levels those numbers contributed 11.2 percent on a monthly basis to the upside gasoline alone Not talking about energy energy up but not quite 11.2 percent just gasoline 11.2 percent on the month just shy of 60 60 percent rise, but hey I think we had gas drain about five bucks at that point not too hard to be up 60 percent from a year ago electricity costs rose a 0.7 percent new and used vehicles up as well stay tuned folks and be right back with our man kevin hanks Vista gold owns and operates the largest undeveloped gold project in australia the mount todd gold project Vista gold just completed their feasibility study resulting in a seven million ounce gold reserve Vista gold has all major permits approved and has retained cibc capital market assistance in evaluating alternatives and in completing An accretive transaction vista gold trades on the nyse american and tsx under the ticker symbol vgc Vista gold executing a strategy to create shareholder value Everything in the universe is governed by the fibonacci sequence This mathematical principle is responsible for everything from the most aesthetically pleasing artwork to patterns in the stock market To stay on top of stock patterns You can take advantage of sign up for the fibonacci 24 7 newsletter at tfnn.com When you subscribe You'll get a weekly report from veteran day trader larry pesavento on stocks You need to pay attention to and you can trust larry's analysis after all he's got 45 years experience as a day trader larry will also provide daily charts videos and data on the key markets that he's tracking Expect notifications from larry on market movement. You need to act on at any time First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee if you're not satisfied Let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up Subscribe to the fibonacci 24 7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors Steve rhodes started his trading career as a student almost 20 years ago And the student has now become the master Steve won the prestigious timer of the year award in 2018 and barely missed that mark again in 2019 Finishing at number two for the year an amazing accomplishment Steve rhodes is committed to sharing his techniques and knowledge with anyone who wants to learn And he shares his vast amount of trading knowledge every day in his mastering probability newsletter Steve's award-winning newsletter Mastering probability is delivered every trading day with updates throughout the afternoon sign up for steve's market newsletter Mastering probability and you'll receive access to seven of steve's educational webinars. Absolutely free at tfnn All our newsletters come with a 30 day money back guarantee So you have absolutely nothing to worry about visit tfnn.com and try mastering probability 30 days risk-free today tfnn educating investors tfnn has launched the tiger's den hosted at discord tfnn has been educating traders for more than 20 years with live programming hosted by a variety of professional traders during market hours The tiger's den available to all tigers and tygruses for just one dollar for the year There's no catch or added costs when you join our community of traders sign up today and become a part of this Educational community of traders. Just visit the front page of tfnn.com Welcome back folks. We have the s&p's right now. You're chopping around at about 37 71. We're negative by 52 points That's 1.4 percent in the red right now for the s&p's you're looking at a nasdaq 100 Basically at 2% right on the dock the dot the dow even the dow off more than a full percent right now in the Russell off 1.1 percent as well crude trading right now with 95 82 You talk about some volatility man crude trades from 96 75 down more than two dollars Up more than two dollars right back into action and right now we're trading at 95 72 Almost flat technically on the session for crude and we get the tenure above 2% The tenure trades down to a low on that acceleration to about 117 24 I mean look at even the bounce you just got you just got a bounce of about 15 ticks to the upside You traded down more than a full point in a heartbeat from 118 25 down to 117 24 right now you're back at about 118 That puts the tenure at about 3.03 percent right now. All right, let's jump over to our man kevin hanks every trading day folks 12 noon eastern time right here on tiger tv the td ameritrade network with fast market your host kevin hanks Tom white they break down the day's market action and it doesn't get much faster than The action since 8 30 this morning folks kevin hanks. Good morning Good morning. Tommy or brian bumpy morning here for the market as we got some pretty catastrophic data out of CPI data tommy, but here's the thing that It this is going to get really tricky today. Why? because The question traders are going to have to ask themselves is is this data stale? And here's why tommy june 13th. Let's go back one month from today june 13th Crude all prices 100 121 dollars and nine cents today 94 that being said Energy energy cpi up seven and a half percent They have to lean up 11.2 energy commodities up 10.4 percent tommy even though they've gone from 121 to 94 grains Uh, you've got soybeans. We're trading 17.08 now trading 13 27 corn trading 7 66 now 5 85 Tommy that being said food Higher across the board up 1 percent food at home up 1 percent food away up point nine new vehicles up point seven Used vehicles up 1.6 Apparel up point eight tommy This is inflation virtually across the board 20 out of 21 metrics are uh Our our positive here tommy But the question that everyone's going to have to ask is is this data stale because the higher prices that we got in this Reading don't match what you're seeing in crudel what you're seeing in grains What you're seeing in metals and and copper it doesn't match up So what do you pay attention to the data that might be three weeks old? Or what you're seeing since the last fed meeting and these collapse of commodity prices tommy It's a great analysis as usual kevin some of those numbers jumped out at me as well Of course energy prices because that one a little bit undeniable as the the price of the pump coming down a little bit Those numbers for gasoline man 11.2 percent on a monthly basis. They were up on the june number But as you said, it's july 13th already this this data out for june And we're almost halfway through the month of july and we've seen some easing Some of those numbers jumped out at me as well What happened with the the used vehicles may be peeking out right used vehicles new and use 7.7 and 1.6 Um and then food and shelter, you know as I just talked about pretty remarkable just Yeah Shelter up point six Transportation services up 2.1. Sorry now You could make the same case as well as in I'd expect a little bit of a real estate pullback, right? That should have some impact on shelter for sure with these types of rates going up But man, we haven't seen it. So until it comes kevin, right? It's like a glimmer of hope But we got to see it actually happen for for the economics of the supply and demand to actually coincide to force some of this action going on So with that in mind all the conversation now is 75 basis points I think I heard this morning 20 or 30 chance that they even go a full point at the next meeting to the downside What's your expectation for where we go from here kevin? It does the market? Have you know any room for upside until the next fed meeting? I see I see a lot of pressure to the downside right now with so much volatility As we await the the fed's next decision and then from there on out even going forward Yeah, I I think I think you know the the first Start of the morning is going to be a little bumpy Tommy, but how this market finishes today How this market finishes the week is going to be vitally important because now we're in the early season An early season is getting off to a little bit of a bumpy start with delta doing well in revenues But unable to deliver on the top line because of well You know fuel prices and operational costs So they missed on earnings per share higher on higher higher on revenues. That may be a pretty good Uh indication of what we're going to get this quarter Tommy You know this is going to get bumpy Tommy for for sure But how we finish today you've got an attack down two and an eighth percent You've got the e-mini's down about 1.6. How they finish the day is going to be pretty important It's going to show our traders discounting some of this cpi data. Tommy Yeah, it's an interesting one man And I was talking about I mean folks the number that they were supposed to come out with was 8.8 percent or something. So you come in at 9.1 Kevin, you've made the point so often Um, you got to look at the month over month number because really you know the other 11 months, right? And you're just coming into the final month comes in at 1.3 versus 1.1 for the headline the core is still a little hot as well Um, but where we go from here is pretty important I think 75 is totally on the table right now with that type of print pretty remarkable Kevin that we're sitting at just you know, we're adding almost 400 000 jobs a month, man And we got inflation at 9.1 percent. You had those two together The feds got to bring it man And it's pretty interesting to see where that market ends up now With its analysis of where we should be with that being the case with that in mind you mentioned it We got earnings coming up man. We kick it off this week and then we really get into it What are you guys talking about at 12 o'clock today, Kevin? Three really good names to look at snowflake We'll do in the a segment of the show the b-block Like folio is going to come with mcdonald's some of the food companies and then we got a look at bowing After their deliveries yesterday and that move in the stock will trade bowing in in in the third segment today So snowflake a mcdonald's and bowing today Three good stocks, man. I got bowing up there. You're trading at 147 man this thing Kind of a max paying situation for so long and mcdonald's they've done pretty well this year actually mcdonald's trading at 251 Right now you came into the year 271, but all things consider holding up relatively well and some of those growth stocks, man Snowflake down from 400 less than a year ago But up from 110 couple couple Couple months ago. Well, Kevin, I appreciate the time this morning. It's a busy one I know we'll be watching at 12 o'clock today, man, and you have a great one Buckle up Tommy. This might be a bumpy one today. Have a great day quick fingers, man. Stay quick That's right buckle up and stay safe and uh defied risk. That's one way to stay safe, right, Kevin We appreciate it, man. Have a great one folks tune in every trading day 12 o'clock I imagine today is going to be a great one with this type of market action We jump over to the vix right now. You get the vix all things considered folks. I talked about this earlier in the week That's quite a spike. Okay But you the vix just moved one point the vix just moved one point From 2750 to 2850. All right. I'm ballparking. Okay um The vix is already Very elevated and it is pricing in these types of moves folks. Okay. I mean you're talking about a vix that just moved one point And we have the s&p trade down three percent in the span of about 15 minutes Okay Keep that in mind because the vix is not going down. This volatility is going to persist no matter what happens with the fed meeting coming up Later this month We have a lot of volatility to come folks Because we're basically a peak inflation right now And yes, you can have hope that what the fed is doing will work that these numbers will wane Until it happens. We're not there yet. Stay tuned folks. We'll be back for the open In the time of booming inflation. We are purchasing powers eroded. 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We got markets open Uh, maybe this market saves itself to a certain degree in the first at least 30 seconds of trading as you don't get a Dramatic sell-off now this looks like no move on this chart because it's such a mammoth move that we got Any 30 on that number? Let's put it down to one minute to really see the action in terms of where we're going But there's your pop you pop about five six points on the open There's a little acceleration s and p's though. You're still down 50 points. That's 1.3 percent the red right now Nasdaq 100 you're negative by 1.6 percent right now You more you are more than a hundred points off the low though that you had of 11,479 Dow off 1.1 percent. I'm not catching too much of a bit at all from those lows bitcoin under 19,000 18,960 crude little volatility in both directions 9614 and the price of crude. Uh, I imagine that market though folks taking a look at the daily Okay Yes, I don't imagine as kevin made a great point. Okay. You you back it up to june 13th There's the june 13th on this chart. All right. Look how the price of crude Was peaking mid month. Here's june 2nd for you. There is june 1st Okay, you climb through the month. We make it to june 16th late in the month You really start accelerating to 104 but you finish june into 110 since then we've dropped as well So you're going to see lower energy prices with gas prices to some degree. You got crude at 96 dollars, but here's the thing I like technical trading. Okay. This is an area of technical support on this chart folks If you just take a look at the recent lows the low from march 9407, what do we just hit? 9367. Okay. You get just below that level. No 90 look at this the low 93 53 And you got within 14 pennies 93 67, where did we make it in april 92 93 within a dollar of that low And then we got to about 95 dollars in april point being Yes, maybe we break through this level But it's not an automatic that crude gets much below this price level This seems to be the low boundary of where we've been trading right now Do you really see crude going back to 60 70 80 dollars even right now? I don't know Can I see it popping back up to 105? Yeah, it was there like yesterday So we'll see where crude goes into that conversation. The one thing I'll add about this cpi number that really struck out at me. Okay Is the cost of shelter Shelter costs overall are the biggest services component and make up a third of the overall cpi index Okay, so rent Of primary residents rose 0.8 percent from may to june. We got the june numbers again The largest monthly advance since 1986 shelter costs overall climbed point six percent So rent has a big impact on that. Okay While home sales have slowed in recent months due to higher mortgage rates Economists expect rental inflation to continue to increase because it takes time for price changes To feed into the cpi the cost of hotel and airline fares as well as car rentals fell from may to june So those are decreases but back to what's going to happen with rent prices? Okay, because shelter is one third of the cpi And that's going to have obviously a big impact in the months to come What's going to happen as rates rise potentially? What's going to happen as a mortgage rate is at 5.5 or 6% making it very difficult for those to buy a house Maybe forcing even more people into the rental market. Okay Because To have that number be the highest number since 1986 on a rental level with what's happening in real estate But that is stale data. It is july 13th I think in the last month or two month or two as you've really seen the fed bring it And you've seen those mortgage rates hit some pretty astounding levels Uh, maybe that does have an impact on it But on the rental level there are lots going on in the rental level Because how you're going to buy a house folks when you get the mortgage rate at 5.5 percent and you have home prices up 30 or 40 percent just from last year in some markets in florida, for instance I mean tampa. I think the number was like 32 percent year over year, right? You're buying a house last year That's 300 000 at 3.5 percent. You're buying that same exact house this year for 400 000 at 5.5 percent I don't know. I just might rent the house maybe for for six months a year Uh and play it out because if I'm renting a house, do I really see the market going up another substantial level? Everything's a risk reward, right? So let's say you have that 400 000 house. Yes There's the possibility that house goes up to 420 440 000 Maybe the market continues to go up even with interest rates where they are, right? Maybe it just goes up 5 percent this year to a price level of 420 000 Well, what's the other side of that? The other side of that is maybe the market gives back 50 percent of that 40 percent rise that it had in 20 2021 as in maybe that house that went from 300 to 401 year pulls back to 350, right? I don't see that rise continuing So maybe that's where the rental market continues to struggle as in prices continuing to rise because it's so difficult to be buying A house right now. Yeah. All right. What else do we have pulled up here? Delta Kevin mentioned it. I pulled up the chart trading lower profit miss signals cost increased spiral for airlines Carrier coping with surge in non-fuel expenses non-fuel expenses. Okay disruptions big disruptions man I'm seeing disruptions all over social media CEO cautions delta shouldn't grow beyond our means fell short on profit expectations in the second quarter High operating costs will persist through the rest of the year weighing on a possible rebound as carriers try to capitalize on continued strong Travel demand man these airlines, right travel. It just looked like a no-brainer that they were just going to be eventually quite a buy but $100 crude persisting a big hampering on that and Beyond as in the cost of doing business right now whether it's human capital Whatever it is they're all going up in a big way The other thing about cpi number to tie it back to two real wages Year over year. I think they were down 4.4 percent wages not even keeping up even close real wages For americans down almost five percent in the last year. That is a mammoth mammoth number folks when you think most people Okay, are living dollar to dollar every month. Okay, so if you got $1,500 What is that? 10% will be 150. That'd be like a 75 dollar haircut on every 1500 dollars, right? Yeah Yeah, so for every $2,000 you got you're taking a hundred bucks away from somebody for five percent Just like that and if you're living a dollar to dollar a hundred dollars is a lot of money on a $2,000 monthly budget That's going to impact things folks. Uh, the adjusted profit $1.44 was the number for delta. They missed the dollar 64 number um Yeah, but they they're they're they're going to face some tough woes folks the rhetoric around this I think is what they're most worried about as this market catches a little rise. So not exactly doom and gloom exactly, but delta Yeah, they continue. We're basically at session lows right now for delta down 7.2 Because think about it. It's not just about crude. They said it um Costs beyond energy are a big problem for them right now and I imagine the other airlines taking a big hit American gives back everything they had yesterday down 5.6 percent United down 3.5 percent. We jumped domestically jet blue has been the worst of them all jet blue down about 3.6 percent Spirit down about 1 percent in southwest right now down 3.1. Let's jump to the cruise ships. Look at that I mean everything straight and dramatically lower carnival down 4.2 percent I mean be careful on this one folks. You want to gamble you can buy some of these cruise ships potentially because you're at some pretty Dismal levels, but here's the thing the reason why this stock is trading at basically cove it lows Is because they there is a distinct chance that they go bankrupt If there is a demand. Well, maybe we get another huge Recession right now coming out of this that hamper's demand. They got so much debt on the books man Be careful of these cruise ships. All right folks. Stay tuned. We'll be back talking to our man Teddy keg stat tiger forex support. Check it out on the front page. We'll be right back TFNN has been your trusted source of analysis for bonds metals stocks commodities and options for years And we are happy to announce that we are bringing that same caliber of analysis for the forex market Teddy keg stat has 30 plus years of experience in forex trading commodity risk management forex hedging Volatility and so much more teddy releases his weekly tiger forex report every monday morning with elite coverage of all major currency pairs including the dxy euro dollar pound dollar ozzie dollar dollar yen dollars swiss franc and so much more Teddy will recommend specific trades when the market presents them and provide updates throughout the week when warranted for the month of july inaugural members to the tiger forex report will receive 25 off the monthly subscription for as long as they're subscribed Just use promo code teddy 25 to lock in the added savings This offer is good only for the month of july so do not miss your opportunity to save on the tiger forex report TFNN educating investors The technology around us is changing every day with so much happening It can seem impossible to keep up with all the information David white's investment newsletter the technology insider is designed to give you all the information you need to understand the technology That shapes today's markets and tomorrow's future David white has made his living staying on the cutting edge of technology His weekly newsletter will give you specific recommendations for value tech stocks As well as entry prices target prices and stops to set for each trade Dave delivers his weekly newsletters every friday with updates throughout the week You can get the technology insider at TFNN dot com for only 37 in 50 cents Sign up for david's newsletter the technology insider and get an inside look at everything the technology sector has to offer Try it risk-free today with our 30-day money back guarantee TFNN educating investors will the s&p 500 continue to climb for bull trades on us large cap stocks in either direction trade spxl spu u or spx s directions daily smp 500 bull and bear Leveraged ETFs direction leveraged ETFs an investor should carefully consider a fund's investment objective risks charges and expenses before investing A fund's prospectus and summary prospectus contain this and other information about direction shares to obtain a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus call 866-476-7523 or visit direction investments dot com a fund's prospectus and summary prospectus should be read carefully before investing An investment in the funds is subject to risk including the possible loss of principal The funds are designed to be utilized only by sophisticated investors such as traders and active investors distributor for side fund services LLC This program is brought to you by vista gold traded on the nyse american and tsx under the symbol vgz Welcome back folks. We get the markets bouncing a bit off the lows s&p's though. You're down 38 points That's one percent the red right now trading at 37 85 Let's jump over to our man teddy keg stat folks You heard the ad at the break there if you haven't checked it out yet head on over to the friend page of tfnn.com You'll see the tiger forex report right there by our man teddy keg stat. He kicked this off a couple weeks ago He's got new issues every week out there. He covers many of the pairs in the forex market He also covers that crude market. He also covers the bond market You can use code teddy 25 folks. Okay for this month only it's already july 13th Still comes with a 30 day money back guarantee. So please go check it out some great information out there If you're not trading off that info, it's not something you have the time for whatever the reason cancel Get a 30 day money back guarantee if you decide to keep it You lock in 25 off from the monthly price of $97 that knocks you down to 72 75 And you get to keep that rate for as long as you subscribe And man teddy, what a great day to talk to you today. Good morning Good morning. Tommy. Yeah, that cpi number sure has put a little uh Bomb off in the markets today, right? Oof Um, where do you want to start teddy? We got you know, I uh, we've been talking about the cpi a little bit Of course 9.1 percent. You're gonna see that everywhere on the news tonight Um tantalizing number for sure But the core number was hot month over month was hot We see rates right now the 10 year back above 3% were at 3.02 But we got a little bit of easing in those crude prices I'm not sure if you caught the interview with kevin hanks, but he was talking about, you know, it is stale data That it's it's almost the middle of july already Um, what's your take on crude right now? Maybe in cpi or where we go from here? Where do you want to kick things off this morning? Well cpi, you know, I seem to remember there was a certain person about a year ago That said that the big economic numbers cpi being one of them We're going to be some of the biggest things that we need to watch moving forward over the next couple of years And I think we can see that it's true and we it's going to be a long time before these numbers stop to be such Have such an impact on the markets So I mean the bonds had a nice spike high last week They ended a correction They tried to get them up, you know again this week and they peaked out yesterday anyone that read the Forex report saw that we hit that nice little target area And I think that you're going to start to see them start to hit support So the dollar is going to gain strength, you know So and I also think that the more the dollar gains strength and some of these other currencies start to get Pound their new lows and stuff like that that you're going to see oil start to not just stabilize but start to rise again Yeah, it's interesting I was just talking about I mean from a technical level right if I was going to be buying or selling crude at this price level of $95 we're at 96 21 right now overnight your as low as 93 67 um We haven't seen prices below 95 dollars or so for a while man Um, you know, if you ever got back down to 75, I think the whole country would be cheering Meanwhile, we've been sitting at above 100 and we were at 105 earlier this week So yeah, I see a lot of you know, maybe we break below that level But it's it's a level that it's found support for some time man, uh in that crude market It's the volatility factor tommy, you know, like we can't look at crude the way it was trading like two or three years ago You know at this at these levels you're going to have these major swings Yeah, even even the market to that degree right we get the vixit like 26 or 27 And it's amazing that there were some years I was looking back I don't think we got above like 14 or something in the vix for a whole year Um, not not the market we're dealing with right now for sure Hey, how about the euro us dollar because that's getting a lot of attention man I got some friends. Uh, one of my best friends lives over in switzerland Um, but just talking about I got one friend going to roam Um, shortly he's all jazzed man to buy some euros at parody What's your take on the euro man as we as we reach parody this morning And we're chopping basically right around parody right now in the euro us dollar Oh, i'm a cell rally forecast in the euro for a while the eukon the whole the whole area is collapsing economically So it's not going to stop at all, you know And here's the thing too is that you know, I've been saying this for a long time It's not that the dollar is so strong these other currencies are just that weak And with what our fed is doing like people think that raising rates is a good thing right now And we should that they're just trying to catch up because they're behind the curve They don't realize that what we're doing now is we're decreasing the velocity of money at a rate that we haven't done in decades And what people don't understand about that is if you put if you were to have all the currencies at parody Let's say even just a year ago. Okay Globally, all right is on a global trade perspective now It's costing every country around the world about 10 to 20 percent more to do business with america or Even outside of america because things are denominated in dollars That's going to be crushing economies across the globe over the next six to 12 months So if you think that inflation is a problem wait until you start to have the collapsing of banks and central Not central banks, but the banking systems around the globe and also manufacturing as well Because it's the damages. We're the ones that are at the forefront of causing this damage We're going to look back a year and a half from now and be like, oh, we should have put the brakes on that Yeah, it's quite a move man. I got the euro-us dollar up there. I mean I could put it on the daily I got it up there on a weekly. It's a one-way trip basically over the last 14 months man from may We were above 122 and uh, it's almost accelerating lower man I can see us at 90 cents before the year is out Yeah, yeah, I mean that's that's I mean There's no bid on that chart man for sure just even being a technical trader and in the case you make, you know Israeus in europe versus us man, it's a tough I mean, what are they going to do for the central bank over there when they're dealing with so many issues, right? And and right they're dealing with an economic situation with the war going on with energy They're reliant on on russia for energy At a time when they have inflation out of control and they're supposedly supposed to tame inflation at a time When they have so many economic problems right now and and this is is now one of them for sure with the euro Just getting pummeled man. So I don't know. Yeah Uh, let's talk the bonds can we for a second because quite the move of course for the bonds now the conversation I heard already this morning. They got Whether the fed goes up potentially 75 or even a full point. I think I saw 30 percent close to even 40 or something like that A full point. Uh, what are you looking for the bonds? Does that change at all this morning? Does it accelerate? Where are you looking for the 30 year? I'm looking at us to start hitting new lows again That were the high that we had a week and a half ago was really nice high as far as the ultimate correction from the Matt last swing low that started in the middle of june Okay, so if the if the bear market is still there in place We hit a nice little target there a week and a half ago Then we had a nice little reprieve the bond started selling off again And then you saw what happened over the last two sessions We had a big bounce this week and now this number is the catalyst I think is going to propel us back to making newer move lows If that's the case and we start to get below I would say like 136 in the bonds Well, then we're looking at seeing 128 in the bonds probably and then within the next Two months, maybe even less than that Nice Yeah, I mean just huge moves on that number this morning. It dropped two full points like that We're in 138.09 And yeah, the rates is going to be an interesting one As they affect everything right now going on one percent forecast too if that really is something that's on the table I mean I made the comment Long before they started the raising of rates that what they need to do is do a three quarter one point rate Rate hike then leave it alone see what happens for a little while and if you need to raise rates again Do it but what we're doing now is not helping things and I'm telling you it's going to kill the velocity of money And if I'm right on that one, we're going to have problems You're going to be going to walmart next year and being like, okay. Well, now it's not a matter of food It's about almost everything that's that we buy from other countries because Manufacturing plants are going to close, you know, we're not going to be getting these goods There's things that not everybody buys on a daily basis But you're going to see more and more shelf space either getting empty or it's going to be all filled with the same stuff You know what I mean? So it's all for sure, man As a trader, it's pretty wild right now the volatility that it's just everywhere this mark dream come true I mean, I had to say it but we're can't overstate it. No, I know we're living it So it seems like it's just status quo, but folks it is a trader's dream check out the tiger forex report folks Teddy, thank you so much man. Have a great one. We'll talk to you next Wednesday Okay, thanks man. We'll be right back. 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You need to act on at any time First time subscribers also get a 30 day money back guarantee If you're not satisfied, let us know and you'll get a full refund within 30 days of signing up Subscribe to the Fibonacci 24 7 newsletter today tfnn.com educating investors This segment is brought to you by think or swim for more information Just click the think or swim banner on the front page of tfnn.com Welcome back folks. We get the s&p's right now negative by just 32 points A little bit of a pop folks if you're not in the tiger stand a great time to check it out folks This is an amazing time in the market. You heard teddy talking about it. Uh dream come true You want the market to be higher but as traders folks volatility. Okay. There were years. Let's pull it up real quick Okay, it's almost hard to remember. That's how quickly time goes that this seems normal That we get a three percent drop in the s&p and then you get a pop of 1.5 percent. All right You take a look at the vix and what do we go back? Yeah, you got to go back to Let's put it on a monthly max. There were years. What was the year? Yeah 2017 was the best of it. How high did we get? 17 28 one month was the highest we got the whole year of 2017 Okay, most of the year you see where the bars were closing 9 10 9 10 A low of 952 a high A high in the month of October 13 20 didn't get above 13 20 for the whole month the month of July of 2017 didn't get above 1305 Okay. Yeah, not quite the case since covid point being okay Head on over the front page of tfnn. My dad was talking about the tiger stand just now What did he say folks the s&p didn't make it? The s&p did not make it swing low. We are going higher pretty remarkable right on a 9.1 print on a monthly basis of 1.3 percent the s&p's trade to 37 52 since then we bounced about 30 points You take a look at the daily the lows 36 39 so not quite on those lows And I don't even think we got to the lows that you made june 30th july 1st and on july 5th Right near that number, but not quite the case. Where do we finish today? That'll be an important one the reason why I bring it up Hand on over to the front page of tfnn and folks, please check out the tiger forex support Teddy does an outstanding job every week in his report. He covers all of the major pairs He covers the crude market He covers the bond market with everything going on right now folks those markets very important to the general markets Check out the tiger forex report and check out the tiger stand if you're not in there folks The tiger stand one dollar for the whole year. Check it out great community of traders in there Every morning this thing is going early people are in there talking after hours now. It's a beautiful thing as you would say Stay tuned folks. We got our man basil coming up next larry at 11 fast market at 12 Steve Rhodes Dave white tom o'brien this afternoon Have a great Wednesday everybody